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Twilight In T-Town: The End of the Nick Saban Era

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Look, when we lost to Kansas, it was just a fluke. RIght?! Right?!

Oh god, right?!

Is there a point in there anywhere? That Texas is Kansas and outplayed a more talented team but still isn’t very good? What?

Yeah, there are upsets. Yeah, teams fail to live up to their potential and to play their best each week. Yeah, Texas has a lot of games left. 

Bottom line, Texas beat Alabama in pretty much every way it’s possible to beat a team. Does Texas get a trophy for that? No. Is there a lot left to do? Yes. Is it better than things have been going for a while? Hell, yes. 

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1 minute ago, Doc Daneeka said:

Is there a point in there anywhere? That Texas is Kansas and outplayed a more talented team but still isn’t very good? What?

Yeah, there are upsets. Yeah, teams fail to live up to their potential and to play their best each week. Yeah, Texas has a lot of games left. 

Bottom line, Texas beat Alabama in pretty much every way it’s possible to beat a team. Does Texas get a trophy for that? No. Is there a lot left to do? Yes. Is it better than things have been going for a while? Hell, yes. 

You read my post wrong.

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texasdago

texasdago 7550

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I hope Bama has a great season, in part because it bodes well for what we hope our team is or can be.  I'd rather we beat a team that is still strong and not a team in decline.

At the same time, if the decline starts next year?  So be it... would be timed perfectly for our entrance into the SEC.  All I know is that I feel more comfortable about next year and I'm thinking with all the dumbass SEC bravado, their fans are feeling less comfortable.  Not that I'm worried about Vandy, Kentucky, SC, Mizzou... you know, perennial powerhouses.

I just hope the Longhorns don't play like the Astros... play strongly against good teams and lose to the A's.  Longhorns have never done that, right?  RIGHT?!?

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Gandalfish

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5 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I hope Bama has a great season, in part because it bodes well for what we hope our team is or can be.  I'd rather we beat a team that is still strong and not a team in decline.

At the same time, if the decline starts next year?  So be it... would be timed perfectly for our entrance into the SEC.  All I know is that I feel more comfortable about next year and I'm thinking with all the dumbass SEC bravado, their fans are feeling less comfortable.  Not that I'm worried about Vandy, Kentucky, SC, Mizzou... you know, perennial powerhouses.

I just hope the Longhorns don't play like the Astros... play strongly against good teams and lose to the A's.  Longhorns have never done that, right?  RIGHT?!?

AnP.jpg.14864ad35e6c313b2e1cce44eca312b2.jpg

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Js1

Js1 85056

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44 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I hope Bama has a great season, in part because it bodes well for what we hope our team is or can be.  I'd rather we beat a team that is still strong and not a team in decline.

At the same time, if the decline starts next year?  So be it... would be timed perfectly for our entrance into the SEC.  All I know is that I feel more comfortable about next year and I'm thinking with all the dumbass SEC bravado, their fans are feeling less comfortable.  Not that I'm worried about Vandy, Kentucky, SC, Mizzou... you know, perennial powerhouses.

I just hope the Longhorns don't play like the Astros... play strongly against good teams and lose to the A's.  Longhorns have never done that, right?  RIGHT?!?

I was just kind of thinking that at the gym today.  We are entering the SEC at a good time

Aggy is a cesspool with an underperforming HC and a huge albatross of a buyout for getting rid of him and wasting away more talent than the mid-2010s Texas Longhorns
Brian Kelly is meh at LSU
Nick Saban might be losing his edge in coaching and talent at Alabama
Georgia is Georgia
OU under BV looks like our bitch for the foreseeable future
Napier is hilariously terrible and will be fired soon enough
Tennessee can play offense-ish and Kiffin is pretty good at Ole Miss
Miss St/Arkansas/South Carolina/Vanderbilt/Mizzou/Auburn/Kentucky - meh to mid

We might enter an SEC in 2024 where our main competition on the field is Ole Miss, Tennessee and Georgia.  Versus the SEC a few years ago where it was Florida, Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, aggy, Auburn and an actually competent OU team under Lincoln Riley. 

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3428

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I think there is a myth about Saban and his teams that they are/were some kind of rolling juggernaut year and year out as if each championship season they fielded a team that was on par with 2005 Texas, 95 Nebraska, etc.

The only Saban team I think you can possibly say that about was the 2020 team, and even that team gets an asterisk due to covid.

His 2009 team, while undefeated, well we all saw the game.

All his other championship teams had a loss and at least one other close game that could have been a loss against a team nowhere as talented.

In between, there gave been plenty of 2 or 3 loss seasons, where they ended up losing one or two of those close games.

Hell, they just played in the championship game two seasons ago and lost to a team they had already beaten soundly which evened out a similar reverse scenario with them and LSU back before the playoff format.

Saban's strength was always consistency and process and it allowed Alabama to always be in the mix even with the talent ebbs and flows.

Saban is still Saban and if there is any drop off it won't be because of him. 

NIL and the portal may cut into the frequency of MNCs, but that's just because others got better, not because Saban got worse.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62132

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12 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

I think there is a myth about Saban and his teams that they are/were some kind of rolling juggernaut year and year out as if each championship season they fielded a team that was on par with 2005 Texas, 95 Nebraska, etc.

The only Saban team I think you can possibly say that about was the 2020 team, and even that team gets an asterisk due to covid.

His 2009 team, while undefeated, well we all saw the game.

All his other championship teams had a loss and at least one other close game that could have been a loss against a team nowhere as talented.

In between, there gave been plenty of 2 or 3 loss seasons, where they ended up losing one or two of those close games.

Hell, they just played in the championship game two seasons ago and lost to a team they had already beaten soundly which evened out a similar reverse scenario with them and LSU back before the playoff format.

Saban's strength was always consistency and process and it allowed Alabama to always be in the mix even with the talent ebbs and flows.

Saban is still Saban and if there is any drop off it won't be because of him. 

NIL and the portal may cut into the frequency of MNCs, but that's just because others got better, not because Saban got worse.

This platitude in bold is exactly what the thread is calling out. 

There has been exactly one 3 loss season in the last 14. Not "plenty" and that one was 13 years ago. Another now, or more than 3 losses this season, should raise eyebrows everywhere.

Nothing lasts forever and no one maintains their fastball forever. Even Nolan retired eventually. 

The portal and NIL are precisely reasons why there may not be anymore National Titles for Saban. Sidenote: there hasn't been a "mythical" national title since before the BCS, so I don't even know what you're going for by using "MNC" terminology. 

The landscape has changed. The environment is different. These are precisely reasons why it may be the end of the run for the guy. He was dogshit in the NFL when the playing field was level. Now everyone is institutionalizing the payment of players on a large scale. Bama was one of a handful of schools doing that previously, with way less money. Saban was amazing when he owned a competitive advantage with a few others that UT, Notre Dame, Michigan and others like them wouldn't touch.

There is zero evidence to believe that "Saban is still Saban" in the new normal is enough. NIL kicked off on July 1, 2021. The portal flew open the year before. Everything from there for new seasons is completely different and the variance to prior periods only widens as the days tick by on the calendar.

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Acropora

Acropora 856

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I was just kind of thinking that at the gym today.  We are entering the SEC at a good time

Aggy is a cesspool with an underperforming HC and a huge albatross of a buyout for getting rid of him and wasting away more talent than the mid-2010s Texas Longhorns
Brian Kelly is meh at LSU
Nick Saban might be losing his edge in coaching and talent at Alabama
Georgia is Georgia
OU under BV looks like our bitch for the foreseeable future
Napier is hilariously terrible and will be fired soon enough
Tennessee can play offense-ish and Kiffin is pretty good at Ole Miss
Miss St/Arkansas/South Carolina/Vanderbilt/Mizzou/Auburn/Kentucky - meh to mid

We might enter an SEC in 2024 where our main competition on the field is Ole Miss, Tennessee and Georgia.  Versus the SEC a few years ago where it was Florida, Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, aggy, Auburn and an actually competent OU team under Lincoln Riley. 

I agree with a lot but I think I wouldn't discount Bama being good to great for a few more years.  Their long term outlook isn't great due to NIL and demographics but I don't see them having the Texas Mack dropoff with Saban there.  

I also think Brian Kelly, despite being a murderous asshole, can coach and his ND teams often had WTF games but still a decent overall performance.  And LSU will still get decent talent, though long term same as Bama with NIL.

I bet it'll be Georgia, LSU, Bama and Tennessee in 2024, with Georgia being the only team with a significant talent advantage, though I think Kirby Smart being a mouthbreathing troglodyte helps even the advantage.  

And this also supposes that this Alabama game signals a consistent, reproducible shift in our long term fortunes (which I think it does.

 

 

 

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3428

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5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This platitude in bold is exactly what the thread is calling out. 

There has been exactly one 3 loss season in the last 14. Not "plenty" and that one was 13 years ago. Another now, or more than 3 losses this season, should raise eyebrows everywhere.

Nothing lasts forever and no one maintains their fastball forever. Even Nolan retired eventually. 

The portal and NIL are precisely reasons why there may not be anymore National Titles for Saban. Sidenote: there hasn't been a "mythical" national title since before the BCS, so I don't even know what you're going for by using "MNC" terminology. 

The landscape has changed. The environment is different. These are precisely reasons why it may be the end of the run for the guy. He was dogshit in the NFL when the playing field was level. Now everyone is institutionalizing the payment of players on a large scale. Bama was one of a handful of schools doing that previously, with way less money. Saban was amazing when he owned a competitive advantage with a few others that UT, Notre Dame, Michigan and others like them wouldn't touch.

There is zero evidence to believe that "Saban is still Saban" in the new normal is enough. NIL kicked off on July 1, 2021. The portal flew open the year before. Everything from there for new seasons is completely different and the variance to prior periods only widens as the days tick by on the calendar.

I still call it MNC since the playoff hasn't expanded to my liking just yet.

I don't disagree with anything you are saying and pointed out that the championship frequency would go down.

But this is a loss (Texas) that Saban has almost every year and he's even had a few at home.

Further, 6 championships in 12 years was not sustainable even for Nick, not even for the lovechild of Knute Rockne and Bud Wilkerson would such a thing be sustainable.

Since their last championship game appearance, Alabama has had exactly one 2 loss season(been there done that more than a few times) and a home loss against a really good team.

This may be the beginning of a marked decline based on the projected landscape of college football, but the won/loss evidence is just not there yet.

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NoName

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1 hour ago, Jiggy-Z said:

I think there is a myth about Saban and his teams that they are/were some kind of rolling juggernaut year and year out as if each championship season they fielded a team that was on par with 2005 Texas, 95 Nebraska, etc.

The only Saban team I think you can possibly say that about was the 2020 team, and even that team gets an asterisk due to covid.

FPI in his National Championship years. added stars for when they made it to NCG but lost:

  • 2009: they were not the #1 FPI team but they were #2. Florida was #1 (1.19), then Bama (1.15) then Texas was 3 at 1.00
  • 2011: tied for #1 FPI team at 1.38 with LSU, #3 was Wisconsin at 1.15
  • 2012: #1 by a large margin (1.52) vs A&M at #2 at 1.22. this was equal to the gap between #2 and #6 --> Bama had #2 offense and #1 defense
  • 2015: #1 at 1.10 vs OU and Stanford tied at .91
  • *2016: big gap this year, they were a 1.45 and Michigan was #2 at 1.18. same as gap between #2 and #6
  • 2017: 0.01 gap between #2 Bama at 1.29 and UGA
  • *2018: #1 at 1.65 vs 1.37 (Clemson) --> Bama had #2 offense and #3 defense
  • 2020: #1 at 1.43 vs BYU at #2 (1.28) - next highest was Clemson at 0.95
  • *2021: #2 behind UGA, who was #1 by the largest margin on this list (1.65 to 1.21) - same gap as between #2 and #6.  --> Bama had #2 offense and #5 defense

added in info where they were both top 5 in O and D. i think they have the 2nd highest ever OFEI score in 2020, just behind LSU in 2019.

 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 18988

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2 hours ago, Jiggy-Z said:

Saban is still Saban and if there is any drop off it won't be because of him. 

Go look at his last few rounds of coordinator hires compared to the rest of his career and then report back. O’Brien and Rees are two bad to awful hires in a row. Bryce Young saved Saban from the full ineptitude of O’Brien, but Bryce Young’s not walking through that door this year. 

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18517

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

The portal and NIL are precisely reasons why there may not be anymore National Titles for Saban. Sidenote: there hasn't been a "mythical" national title since before the BCS, so I don't even know what you're going for by using "MNC" terminology. 

The landscape has changed. The environment is different. These are precisely reasons why it may be the end of the run for the guy. He was dogshit in the NFL when the playing field was level. Now everyone is institutionalizing the payment of players on a large scale. Bama was one of a handful of schools doing that previously, with way less money. Saban was amazing when he owned a competitive advantage with a few others that UT, Notre Dame, Michigan and others like them wouldn't touch.

There is zero evidence to believe that "Saban is still Saban" in the new normal is enough. NIL kicked off on July 1, 2021. The portal flew open the year before. Everything from there for new seasons is completely different and the variance to prior periods only widens as the days tick by on the calendar.

I hear what you're saying, but I don't think we have enough data yet to say anything conclusively re: the portal, NIL and Saban. They still finish first or second in the recruiting rankings every year and they have been net beneficiaries in the transfer portal. Maybe they are over ranked and their evals aren't quite as good as they used to be, but they still have more talent on paper than anybody in the country outside of maybe Georgia and Ohio State. 

If we are looking for chinks in the armor, to me it's the handling of his assistants. Saban used to churn through them and not miss a beat. He would shitcan coordinators after a year if they weren't performing (Major, Steele, Tosh Lupoi). The good ones would get head jobs (note: it's always better to get a head job). He held on to Golding way too long. They modernized the offense with Kiffin, put it into overdrive with Sark and then fucked around doing god knows what with BoB for two years. And now they're a power team because why, exactly? Because that's what Georgia did and Saban never liked having to rely on a QB to win big? It may be premature two games in, but it looks like they have no identity on that side of the ball. Tommy Rees smells like Major Applewhite redux to me. 

The other thing that is noteworthy is the penalties. They were among the worst in the country last year and they were bad the other night, too. You used to never see a Saban team beat themselves. I can't imagine how apoplectic he was when they jumped offsides to end the game. 

I always viewed Saban as a much smarter, much better coach than Bowden. Bowden to me was the first true CEO type coach that let his assistants do everything for him. Toward the end, I don't think Bowden's headset was even plugged in. Mickey Andrews for all intents seemed to be running things. I just can't see Saban going out like that. He's too sharp and even at his age, seems too driven. 

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3428

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11 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

The other thing that is noteworthy is the penalties. They were among the worst in the country last year and they were bad the other night, too. You used to never see a Saban team beat themselves. I can't imagine how apoplectic he was when they jumped offsides to end the game. 

Other than offsides, I thought most of their penalties were pretty strategic or a least understandable given the circumstances and were the result of being caught out of position rather than being otherwise undisciplined.

One of the reasons I am a little more moderated on this game, is the due to how the game was called by the officials-correctly I might add.

I just don't think there us any way we get those calls in big 12 play.

We might get the PIs, but I'm sure they pick up the flag on the man down field and call the offsides a false start on us and throw in a few more holds just for good measure.

In big 12 play, Texas will have to cut down on the drops and unforced errors that have a way evening out in order to overcome officiating.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62132

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37 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I hear what you're saying, but I don't think we have enough data yet to say anything conclusively re: the portal, NIL and Saban. They still finish first or second in the recruiting rankings every year and they have been net beneficiaries in the transfer portal. Maybe they are over ranked and their evals aren't quite as good as they used to be, but they still have more talent on paper than anybody in the country outside of maybe Georgia and Ohio State. 

If we are looking for chinks in the armor, to me it's the handling of his assistants. Saban used to churn through them and not miss a beat. He would shitcan coordinators after a year if they weren't performing (Major, Steele, Tosh Lupoi). The good ones would get head jobs (note: it's always better to get a head job). He held on to Golding way too long. They modernized the offense with Kiffin, put it into overdrive with Sark and then fucked around doing god knows what with BoB for two years. And now they're a power team because why, exactly? Because that's what Georgia did and Saban never liked having to rely on a QB to win big? It may be premature two games in, but it looks like they have no identity on that side of the ball. Tommy Rees smells like Major Applewhite redux to me. 

The other thing that is noteworthy is the penalties. They were among the worst in the country last year and they were bad the other night, too. You used to never see a Saban team beat themselves. I can't imagine how apoplectic he was when they jumped offsides to end the game. 

I always viewed Saban as a much smarter, much better coach than Bowden. Bowden to me was the first true CEO type coach that let his assistants do everything for him. Toward the end, I don't think Bowden's headset was even plugged in. Mickey Andrews for all intents seemed to be running things. I just can't see Saban going out like that. He's too sharp and even at his age, seems too driven. 

That's just not correct on NIL and the portal. I feel like you're on these threads enough to know that, too. 

There's a reason why Saban is bitching about NIL. He went to fucking Washington, DC, for Christ's sake, in order to beg congress to do something about it. That isn't happening because he's benefitting from NIL. The guy is getting his head beat in on it. He's having to take guys earlier and he's also missing on guys because they don't have the capital. 

Regarding the portal, he got Ricks, Burton, TooToo and Gibbs before things had really started swinging towards significant spend in the portal for schools. They flopped this time around after whiffing on Maye. They attempted to lure Maye with more money than they actually had committed for that cycle, so it's not clear who was going to step in to cover it if they got him anyway. 

Saban still has roughly the same amount of capital to deploy each period as he's always had, and that's a byproduct of his alumni base and supporters being small time. This is having a material impact on his roster management activities and will continue to do so. 

I addressed what's happening with recruiting rankings and such. A lot of that is coming from people that this entire board trusts as knowledgeable on the talent acquisition side as well as how the rankings systems all work in recruiting. Halo-ing is happening. 

I'm also not sure how you can say that that team on Saturday was a top 3 team in talent this year. What about it did you see that merits even ranking them above Texas? Michigan, Texas, USC, and FSU can all stand toe to toe on roster talent and depth with Bama in 2023. This is no different than people saying ATM is talented because of the composite cumulative rankings for their roster. What are you seeing on the field to match that? If you're not seeing it, you're seeing what we've all been so frustrated with at Texas for so many years. High rankings, low development, low performance. Now, it's all relative. Bama isn't doing anything "poor" or "low" yet, but their roster isn't as dynamic as any of the past 15 years. 

This thread was prospective. It's a theory based on various data points combined with intuition. It could well be worthy of mockery two years from now. I'm seeing enough to doubt that, though. The portal will tell us a lot this offseason. They have some voids to fill and they're going to need to fill them with dudes that likely everyone else would love to sign as well.

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Teamdirtyleg

Teamdirtyleg 1058

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20 hours ago, closetojumping said:

This platitude in bold is exactly what the thread is calling out. 

There has been exactly one 3 loss season in the last 14. Not "plenty" and that one was 13 years ago. Another now, or more than 3 losses this season, should raise eyebrows everywhere.

Nothing lasts forever and no one maintains their fastball forever. Even Nolan retired eventually. 

The portal and NIL are precisely reasons why there may not be anymore National Titles for Saban. Sidenote: there hasn't been a "mythical" national title since before the BCS, so I don't even know what you're going for by using "MNC" terminology. 

The landscape has changed. The environment is different. These are precisely reasons why it may be the end of the run for the guy. He was dogshit in the NFL when the playing field was level. Now everyone is institutionalizing the payment of players on a large scale. Bama was one of a handful of schools doing that previously, with way less money. Saban was amazing when he owned a competitive advantage with a few others that UT, Notre Dame, Michigan and others like them wouldn't touch.

There is zero evidence to believe that "Saban is still Saban" in the new normal is enough. NIL kicked off on July 1, 2021. The portal flew open the year before. Everything from there for new seasons is completely different and the variance to prior periods only widens as the days tick by on the calendar.

One of the most annoying things about fans of the bag money schools is their denial that they were unique in their investment, scope and organization of the bag game. The average Bama fan, for example, seems to understand that NIL is hurting their program.  They get that the talent is dispersing.  They just assume everyone paid under the table before and they just were the favorite payors of the players.  They somehow believe this while being unable to explain how NIL is now hurting them and helping other programs.

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18517

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27 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

That's just not correct on NIL and the portal. I feel like you're on these threads enough to know that, too. 

Oh, I get that they're disadvantaged in NIL. Long term, I think they're fucked. I just don't think we've seen it really hit them yet.

They sure as shit didn't have a talent deficit last season. I can't put too much stock in their losing two games on the road on the last play. Shit happens in college football, no matter how talented you are. Still, they had 10 guys drafted (8 in the first 3 rounds and 3 of the first 12 overall picks including #1 and #3). That's a ridiculous amount of talent and experience to replace. So I think they're struggling with that, especially since they've recruited and/or developed poorly at QB, and also on the offensive line. They are starting a true freshman at LT. If you want to handicap an entire offense, those are the two best places to do it. To me, that seems like more of a developmental issue borne from cycling offensive coordinators and line coaches and not having a consistent system to recruit to vs. purely a talent issue. That said, it's a crying shame the Brocks didn't pan out for them.

Regarding the halo effect on their recruiting... I dunno. I don't follow them closely enough to have any idea on how many Mack Brown specials they are running out there. We are both very aware of the fallacies and biases inherent in the rankings. We get a lot more varied info on the Texas side, so it's easier to have a feel for it. As always, it's a highly inexact science. Again, I think they (finally) have some continuity issues on the coaching side that are partially responsible for the development issues. Saban has been able to overcome that in the past by acting swiftly on coaches when things go sideways, but he doesn't seem as proactive these days.

This very well could be the beginning of the end for them. People said the same thing when Clemson blew them out in the playoffs, only for that demon cocksucker to come back and put together probably his best team ever. Granted, things are much different now in the NIL era. We're going to have to kill him like a horror movie villain just to be safe.

I'm for sure interested as hell to see how the rest of the season plays out for them. I wouldn't be altogether surprised to see them be in contention for a playoff spot at the end of the season.

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closetojumping

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1 minute ago, Teamdirtyleg said:

One of the most annoying things that fans of the bag money schools is their denial that they were unique in their investment and organization of the bag game. The average Bama fan, for example, seems to understand that NIL is hurting their program.  They get that the talent is dispersing.  They just assume everyone paid under the table before and they just were the favorite payors of the players.  They somehow believe this while being unable to explain how NIL is now hurting them and helping other programs.

I agree with this wholeheartedly. Media pundits, many of whom know damned well how the game was being played, will also speak out regarding the perceived problems with NIL while lamenting the impact for the SEC schools, Clemson, and Ohio State. 

The good part about it, though? There isn't a fucking thing any of those schools or fans can do about it. They got to enjoy almost two full decades of doing whatever the fuck they wanted, snickering about it to each other, and trading trophies between roughly 6-7 schools.

Georgia is still wildly benefitting from the rampant cheating and they have a well-funded NIL initiative, so they're basically Rollo Tamassi. Only Kirby Smart's hubris of hiring an idiot buddy like Bobo can slow them. Bama, Clemson, LSU, Auburn, Ohio State? There are a whole bunch of programs actively encroaching on their space.

Ohio State's recruiting looks a lot like Bama's. Highly ranked every cycle, but what's truly going on with it? If you look at the last 4 classes, they load up with WRs and CBs, then those guys are rated through the roof, and then the class is highly ranked. They land plenty of DL due to the DL coach, too. But where are the OL? They were able to buy Donovan Jackson from down here the year before NIL and he's a starter who will go on to the NFL. That considered, they're having OL problems and the reaches they've been forced to take over the past few cycles are now playing. That's a problem that could well unfold inside of the 2023 season. ATM can't run a 10-0-1 defense and OSU can't go with more than 5 WRs on every snap.

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C-Man

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

That's just not correct on NIL and the portal. I feel like you're on these threads enough to know that, too. 

There's a reason why Saban is bitching about NIL. He went to fucking Washington, DC, for Christ's sake, in order to beg congress to do something about it. That isn't happening because he's benefitting from NIL. The guy is getting his head beat in on it. He's having to take guys earlier and he's also missing on guys because they don't have the capital. 

Regarding the portal, he got Ricks, Burton, TooToo and Gibbs before things had really started swinging towards significant spend in the portal for schools. They flopped this time around after whiffing on Maye. They attempted to lure Maye with more money than they actually had committed for that cycle, so it's not clear who was going to step in to cover it if they got him anyway. 

Saban still has roughly the same amount of capital to deploy each period as he's always had, and that's a byproduct of his alumni base and supporters being small time. This is having a material impact on his roster management activities and will continue to do so. 

I addressed what's happening with recruiting rankings and such. A lot of that is coming from people that this entire board trusts as knowledgeable on the talent acquisition side as well as how the rankings systems all work in recruiting. Halo-ing is happening. 

I'm also not sure how you can say that that team on Saturday was a top 3 team in talent this year. What about it did you see that merits even ranking them above Texas? Michigan, Texas, USC, and FSU can all stand toe to toe on roster talent and depth with Bama in 2023. This is no different than people saying ATM is talented because of the composite cumulative rankings for their roster. What are you seeing on the field to match that? If you're not seeing it, you're seeing what we've all been so frustrated with at Texas for so many years. High rankings, low development, low performance. Now, it's all relative. Bama isn't doing anything "poor" or "low" yet, but their roster isn't as dynamic as any of the past 15 years. 

This thread was prospective. It's a theory based on various data points combined with intuition. It could well be worthy of mockery two years from now. I'm seeing enough to doubt that, though. The portal will tell us a lot this offseason. They have some voids to fill and they're going to need to fill them with dudes that likely everyone else would love to sign as well.

Yep. In a perfect world for Saban, he reverses NIL and then goes right back to their old bagman days where they're one of just a few schools paying players. Rules for thee and not for me and all that shit.

 

7 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Oh, I get that they're disadvantaged in NIL. Long term, I think they're fucked. I just don't think we've seen it really hit them yet.

They sure as shit didn't have a talent deficit last season. I can't put too much stock in their losing two games on the road on the last play. Shit happens in college football, no matter how talented you are. Still, they had 10 guys drafted (8 in the first 3 rounds and 3 of the first 12 overall picks including #1 and #3). That's a ridiculous amount of talent and experience to replace. So I think they're struggling with that, especially since they've recruited and/or developed poorly at QB, and also on the offensive line. They are starting a true freshman at LT. If you want to handicap an entire offense, those are the two best places to do it. To me, that seems like more of a developmental issue borne from cycling offensive coordinators and line coaches and not having a consistent system to recruit to vs. purely a talent issue. That said, it's a crying shame the Brocks didn't pan out for them.

Regarding the halo effect on their recruiting... I dunno. I don't follow them closely enough to have any idea on how many Mack Brown specials they are running out there. We are both very aware of the fallacies and biases inherent in the rankings. We get a lot more varied info on the Texas side, so it's easier to have a feel for it. As always, it's a highly inexact science. Again, I think they (finally) have some continuity issues on the coaching side that are partially responsible for the development issues. Saban has been able to overcome that in the past by acting swiftly on coaches when things go sideways, but he doesn't seem as proactive these days.

This very well could be the beginning of the end for them. People said the same thing when Clemson blew them out in the playoffs, only for that demon cocksucker to come back and put together probably his best team ever. Granted, things are much different now in the NIL era. We're going to have to kill him like a horror movie villain just to be safe.

I'm for sure interested as hell to see how the rest of the season plays out for them. I wouldn't be altogether surprised to see them be in contention for a playoff spot at the end of the season.

Bryce Young and Will Anderson committed to Bama in 2019 and either signed that December or in Feb 2020. NIL started in June 2021.

I'm not burying Saban/Bama just yet but where were the true difference-makers on that side of the field on Saturday night? The 2019 Tide had Tua, Najee Harris, Brian Robinson Jr, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith on the offensive side of the ball. John Metchie was seldom used and Mac Jones backed up Tua.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62132

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10 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Oh, I get that they're disadvantaged in NIL. Long term, I think they're fucked. I just don't think we've seen it really hit them yet.

They sure as shit didn't have a talent deficit last season. I can't put too much stock in their losing two games on the road on the last play. Shit happens in college football, no matter how talented you are. Still, they had 10 guys drafted (8 in the first 3 rounds and 3 of the first 12 overall picks including #1 and #3). That's a ridiculous amount of talent and experience to replace. So I think they're struggling with that, especially since they've recruited and/or developed poorly at QB, and also on the offensive line. They are starting a true freshman at LT. If you want to handicap an entire offense, those are the two best places to do it. To me, that seems like more of a developmental issue borne from cycling offensive coordinators and line coaches and not having a consistent system to recruit to vs. purely a talent issue. That said, it's a crying shame the Brocks didn't pan out for them.

Regarding the halo effect on their recruiting... I dunno. I don't follow them closely enough to have any idea on how many Mack Brown specials they are running out there. We are both very aware of the fallacies and biases inherent in the rankings. We get a lot more varied info on the Texas side, so it's easier to have a feel for it. As always, it's a highly inexact science. Again, I think they (finally) have some continuity issues on the coaching side that are partially responsible for the development issues. Saban has been able to overcome that in the past by acting swiftly on coaches when things go sideways, but he doesn't seem as proactive these days.

This very well could be the beginning of the end for them. People said the same thing when Clemson blew them out in the playoffs, only for that demon cocksucker to come back and put together probably his best team ever. Granted, things are much different now in the NIL era. We're going to have to kill him like a horror movie villain just to be safe.

I'm for sure interested as hell to see how the rest of the season plays out for them. I wouldn't be altogether surprised to see them be in contention for a playoff spot at the end of the season.

Regarding the coaching continuity/replacing coaching talent issues, the dude has benefitted when he's had continuity. Only in 2012 did he win a title with a new coordinator. He had Kirby Smart as his rock on the DC side, however. He won it in 2017 with new coordinators, but they were already part of his previous staff. Even still he had to take over playcalling responsibilities from Lupoi in midseason to avoid failure. As time has gone on, he's had more and more turnover and not even Saban can handle that forever. 

Saban has made multiple headscratching hires over the past 5 years. Got a few right, but his hit rate is way down. Golding was a mistake. He's kept Wiggons and that guy is proving to be a liability. Marrone was a bust. BOB. Steele. Jai Valai. This Rhees guy is a hyperconservative lapdog. Like I said, everyone eventually loses their fastball.

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ousux

ousux 5586

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I agree with a lot but I think I wouldn't discount Bama being good to great for a few more years.  Their long term outlook isn't great due to NIL and demographics but I don't see them having the Texas Mack dropoff with Saban there.  
I also think Brian Kelly, despite being a murderous asshole, can coach and his ND teams often had WTF games but still a decent overall performance.  And LSU will still get decent talent, though long term same as Bama with NIL.
I bet it'll be Georgia, LSU, Bama and Tennessee in 2024, with Georgia being the only team with a significant talent advantage, though I think Kirby Smart being a mouthbreathing troglodyte helps even the advantage.  

And this also supposes that this Alabama game signals a consistent, reproducible shift in our long term fortunes (which I think it does.
 
 
 
Agree with all of this. Kirby Smart is NOT some sort of football wizard, he just applied Saban's formula (gathering the best talent by any means necessary) and it worked for him better than other former assistants. Georgia will still do well in the NIL era, but they won't go on a decade long run of dominance. Counting on Bama to quickly fade into the sunset after one home loss is also foolish wishcasting. But like a line in one of my favorite songs "every new beginning is some other beginnings end"
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Nicole44

Nicole44 22023

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Saw Joel Klatt on Cowherd earlier today (I enjoy Klatt’s podcast and I am convinced he reads surly/lurks) and he was talking about Texas being elite and imposing our will on Bama. Specifically, from 7:14 left in the game. And the 3rd and 7 when everyone thought we’d pass and we instead called a run play. Because we could. because we knew we could get the first down. 
 

He’s talked more about NIL and the portal more than most sports media pundits and writers. Most of them want to focus on Bama losing and Saban being past his prime and Milroe needing to be replaced.
 

Klatt went on to say it’s not as if Saban can’t lean into the portal or and snap up a QB. He’s still got a very good pipeline.  It’s mainly that the SEC mentality is to not embrace the new landscape.
 

It was easier for them to do things the way they have been for the last 20 years plus. They can’t do that any more. Saban can still right the ship and turn the team around with their remaining schedule and maybe even get a rematch in the CFP if we are both in it.
 

But he will have to work that much harder.  I don’t think he wants to both embrace change and work as hard as he did 25 or 30 years ago: There’s no more room for error and jus relying on out-talenting the rest of the college landscape. Now Georgia, at least this year, may still be able to do that, but that too will come to an end. Because we are coming for them, through the door the SEC has held open for us.
 

I am beyond glad to leave the Big 12 but because half of my family went to TTU I was happy to see Tech get a five star commitment. For them, that’s an accomplishment. It’s huge. I like the new world.  I like it even more because the SEC and their staunch defenders fucking hate it. Paul Finebaum’s callers don’t have a clue and go to their usual stance of burn Nick Saban at the bonfire without realizing that every school spending the money on faculties and trying to develop recruiting will some day be able to challenge them.
 

The fact that many SEC coaches were so against both the portal and NIL and are still slow to embrace both shows me  how much wrong under and over the table things they’ve gotten away with. The NCAAF and networks ignoring all of that and letting the SEC bask in huge contracts and rolling in their cash.
 

I love the new landscape of college football. More than ever bc of the portal and the NIL. It gives a lot more places a chance to build a better program and to compete. Also fuck the NCAAF, I am no fan of FYPMB but that ruling on their WR is garbage. Total shit. That’s when they step up…? One kid? But have left the SEC and Bama and a few others to just dominate the college football landscape and to the detriment of most every other school and conference. Anyway, very good thread and read. Good topic, OP. Gracias! 
 

 

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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15 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Saw Joel Klatt on Cowherd earlier today (I enjoy Klatt’s podcast and I am convinced he reads surly/lurks) and he was talking about Texas being elite and imposing our will on Bama. Specifically, from 7:14 left in the game. And the 3rd and 7 when everyone thought we’d pass and we instead called a run play. Because we could. because we knew we could get the first down. 
 

He’s talked more about NIL and the portal more than most sports media pundits and writers. Most of them want to focus on Bama losing and Saban being past his prime and Milroe needing to be replaced.
 

Klatt went on to say it’s not as if Saban can’t lean into the portal or and snap up a QB. He’s still got a very good pipeline.  It’s mainly that the SEC mentality is to not embrace the new landscape.
 

It was easier for them to do things the way they have been for the last 20 years plus. They can’t do that any more. Saban can still right the ship and turn the team around with their remaining schedule and maybe even get a rematch in the CFP if we are both in it.
 

But he will have to work that much harder.  I don’t think he wants to both embrace change and work as hard as he did 25 or 30 years ago: There’s no more room for error and jus relying on out-talenting the rest of the college landscape. Now Georgia, at least this year, may still be able to do that, but that too will come to an end. Because we are coming for them, through the door the SEC has held open for us.
 

I am beyond glad to leave the Big 12 but because half of my family went to TTU I was happy to see Tech get a five star commitment. For them, that’s an accomplishment. It’s huge. I like the new world.  I like it even more because the SEC and their staunch defenders fucking hate it. Paul Finebaum’s callers don’t have a clue and go to their usual stance of burn Nick Saban at the bonfire without realizing that every school spending the money on faculties and trying to develop recruiting will some day be able to challenge them.
 

The fact that many SEC coaches were so against both the portal and NIL and are still slow to embrace both shows me  how much wrong under and over the table things they’ve gotten away with. The NCAAF and networks ignoring all of that and letting the SEC bask in huge contracts and rolling in their cash.
 

I love the new landscape of college football. More than ever bc of the portal and the NIL. It gives a lot more places a chance to build a better program and to compete. Also fuck the NCAAF, I am no fan of FYPMB but that ruling on their WR is garbage. Total shit. That’s when they step up…? One kid? But have left the SEC and Bama and a few others to just dominate the college football landscape and to the detriment of most every other school and conference. Anyway, very good thread and read. Good topic, OP. Gracias! 
 

 

I agree with all of this except Tech can die in a fire. One more absolute clubbing and leave them to their own devices. 

Finding ways to connect players with money was much more advantageous when it was a smaller pool willing to do it. 

I don’t think Texas would have much to fear in a rematch. That wasn’t an “on any given Saturday” scenario. Alabama is lucky, imo, that the loss is being described as “double digit” and not “three touchdown.”

I think Saban can probably keep Alabama in contention for a playoff spot, especially after this year, for just about as long as he’s sufficiently motivated to do so. Whether that level of success is enough for him, or them, would be interesting. 

Klatt is one of my favorite guys to listen to. 

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C-Man

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Saw Joel Klatt on Cowherd earlier today (I enjoy Klatt’s podcast and I am convinced he reads surly/lurks) and he was talking about Texas being elite and imposing our will on Bama. Specifically, from 7:14 left in the game. And the 3rd and 7 when everyone thought we’d pass and we instead called a run play. Because we could. because we knew we could get the first down. 
 
He’s talked more about NIL and the portal more than most sports media pundits and writers. Most of them want to focus on Bama losing and Saban being past his prime and Milroe needing to be replaced.
 
Klatt went on to say it’s not as if Saban can’t lean into the portal or and snap up a QB. He’s still got a very good pipeline.  It’s mainly that the SEC mentality is to not embrace the new landscape.
 
It was easier for them to do things the way they have been for the last 20 years plus. They can’t do that any more. Saban can still right the ship and turn the team around with their remaining schedule and maybe even get a rematch in the CFP if we are both in it.
 
But he will have to work that much harder.  I don’t think he wants to both embrace change and work as hard as he did 25 or 30 years ago: There’s no more room for error and jus relying on out-talenting the rest of the college landscape. Now Georgia, at least this year, may still be able to do that, but that too will come to an end. Because we are coming for them, through the door the SEC has held open for us.
 
I am beyond glad to leave the Big 12 but because half of my family went to TTU I was happy to see Tech get a five star commitment. For them, that’s an accomplishment. It’s huge. I like the new world.  I like it even more because the SEC and their staunch defenders fucking hate it. Paul Finebaum’s callers don’t have a clue and go to their usual stance of burn Nick Saban at the bonfire without realizing that every school spending the money on faculties and trying to develop recruiting will some day be able to challenge them.
 
The fact that many SEC coaches were so against both the portal and NIL and are still slow to embrace both shows me  how much wrong under and over the table things they’ve gotten away with. The NCAAF and networks ignoring all of that and letting the SEC bask in huge contracts and rolling in their cash.
 
I love the new landscape of college football. More than ever bc of the portal and the NIL. It gives a lot more places a chance to build a better program and to compete. Also fuck the NCAAF, I am no fan of FYPMB but that ruling on their WR is garbage. Total shit. That’s when they step up…? One kid? But have left the SEC and Bama and a few others to just dominate the college football landscape and to the detriment of most every other school and conference. Anyway, very good thread and read. Good topic, OP. Gracias! 
 
 

Saw Klatt earlier and he’s being very careful not to say Saban and Bama are done because apparently he said the same thing after Ole Miss beat them in 2015 and he got burned by the comment.

This is something else entirely different for many of the reasons CTJ (and others) points out.
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Jkwellborn

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It was either our last sack or close to the last one where our guy managed to bring Milroe down despite the fact that he was in the process of being tackled by 'Bama's LT.
No flag, of course.
But they did call one TD back on a holding. That never would have happened with a B12 crew.
Didn’t they mention the flagged was picked up after it was thrown? The announcers mentioned it after Burke got the sack.

Milroe isn’t a bad qb, but he’s running he wrong offense.
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Ignatius

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1 hour ago, ousux said:
6 hours ago, Acropora said:
I agree with a lot but I think I wouldn't discount Bama being good to great for a few more years.  Their long term outlook isn't great due to NIL and demographics but I don't see them having the Texas Mack dropoff with Saban there.  
I also think Brian Kelly, despite being a murderous asshole, can coach and his ND teams often had WTF games but still a decent overall performance.  And LSU will still get decent talent, though long term same as Bama with NIL.
I bet it'll be Georgia, LSU, Bama and Tennessee in 2024, with Georgia being the only team with a significant talent advantage, though I think Kirby Smart being a mouthbreathing troglodyte helps even the advantage.  

And this also supposes that this Alabama game signals a consistent, reproducible shift in our long term fortunes (which I think it does.
 
 
 

Agree with all of this. Kirby Smart is NOT some sort of football wizard, he just applied Saban's formula (gathering the best talent by any means necessary) and it worked for him better than other former assistants. Georgia will still do well in the NIL era, but they won't go on a decade long run of dominance. Counting on Bama to quickly fade into the sunset after one home loss is also foolish wishcasting. But like a line in one of my favorite songs "every new beginning is some other beginnings end"

I know who I want to take me home…and I saw about 1,000 of her last weekend.

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Had Enough

Had Enough 2054

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Didn’t they mention the flagged was picked up after it was thrown? The announcers mentioned it after Burke got the sack.

Milroe isn’t a bad qb, but he’s running he wrong offense.

I believe they speculated there was no flag thrown because the sack was made. That’s a reasonable and acceptable possibility. The hold and sack were as close to simultaneous as you can get.
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Hermanator

Hermanator 6916

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Way too early to say Alabama is significantly declining but with NIL and portal it was going to be impossible for him to stockpile and maintain the talent advantage he had for years. Just can't happen now. It's a similar type of effect that the salary cap and free agency had on the NFL. 

That said his team has a ton of young talent and if his coaching staff can get Milroe to develop over the season they may be very very dangerous by the end of the year. Milroe has the ability to take over games if he can develop a short passing game and learn to read coverage better. 

But Saban will never again have the type of sustained dominance on the lines he had before. Just can't be done consistently anymore, and without that it'll be impossible to put up these insane streaks. I don't think they'll fall off like we did or USC or FSU until Saban is gone but they'll start missing the playoffs more than before. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62132

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1 minute ago, Reese Bennett said:

That, I think, is a mistake. You ride with Milroe this year and let him learn and improve. Dude could be really good with some experience.

I agree. This dude wasn't even the starter at ND before injuries. They're going the "game manager" route and thinking they'll just out talent at least 9 of the next 10 teams they play. I think they'd be better off working on leaning into Milroe's strengths, which are borderline elite on the "physical runner" end for QBs.

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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Knee jerk reaction? Did Millroe not respond well this week? Looking at at options in a game they almost can’t lose no matter what? Saban doesn’t strike me as someone who runs around like his hair’s on fire.

This should get a lot of approval from a Texas fanbase that loves it some second-team QB, though. 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14953

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I like Milroe but I think Saban made the right decision, assuming his replacement can complete basic first read passes. 

It was obvious Texas didn’t respect the passing ability of Milroe at all. Saban was staring at 8-3 or worse with him. A game manager will get them to 8-3 or better. 

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3428

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56 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Really? One subpar game against a really good D and he's benched? Seems rash to me.

 

He's gonna stink and they'll end up going back to Milroe.

Seems like an ok idea to me. Try the new guy out against a crap opponent to motivate former starter,  get some depth snaps, and not throw the backup to the wolves in conference play.

Classic Saban. I see little downside since I am a Texas fan.

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