Game Week Thread Week 4, 2023: Texas @ Baylor

[Atticus 3922]

Robertson threw his first TD of the season last week against Long Island…in the 4th quarter.
 

He has thrown three picks in two games and has thrown even more balls that should have been picks. 

We could just run it down their throats with Brooks and Red and force them to adjust before we really start throwing. 

[UTEX_ME 4754]

Just now, Atticus said:

Robertson threw his first TD of the season last week against Long Island…in the 4th quarter.
 

He has thrown three picks in two games and has thrown even more balls that should have been picks. 

We could just run it down their throats with Brooks and Red and force them to adjust before we really start throwing. 

If there was any game for Sark to go run first its this one.  But we will come out dropping 3 yard out routes watch. 

[ClubWhatever 12087]

52 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

I believe “embrace the hate” implies that they do. 

It's impossible to overstate how bad the Baylors want to win this.  And, despite the groupthink on this board regarding an opponent's ability to improve over the course of the season ("they lost to X, they suck"), teams do improve.  Baylor has some good players.  This will be another dog fight for a good chunk of the game.  That's just our M.O this year.

Edited September 18, 2023 by ClubWhatever

[BurntOrange&White 39655]

8 minutes ago, Atticus said:

Robertson threw his first TD of the season last week against Long Island…in the 4th quarter.
 

He has thrown three picks in two games and has thrown even more balls that should have been picks. 

We could just run it down their throats with Brooks and Red and force them to adjust before we really start throwing. 

Baxter should be back this week.....give em a heavy dose of that jumbo package with Agbo coupled with some quick hitters to the outside.

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

I also think there's a lot of 20 and 21 personnel looks Sark hasn't shown yet until he needs it. With Robinson and Red at RB plus Worthy in motion there's a lot of pre-snap stuff you can do to throw off teams. 

 

[BurntOrange&White 39655]

 

[South Austin 52144]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

It wouldn't surprise me if one of the contributors to Baylor's 1-2 record is that they hadn't looked at any game film of, or prepared in any way for ,Texas State, Utah, and Long Island, and instead have been solely preparing for the Texas game since the team reported for fall practice.

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Baxter should be back this week.....give em a heavy dose of that jumbo package with Agbo coupled with some quick hitters to the outside.

Their LBs suck at diagnosing the direction of run plays. 

The best way to attack them is to not go big but run 21 personnel with 2 RBs. Their LBs will be out of position a lot. 

Edited September 18, 2023 by Rickylovesweed

[South Austin 52144]

Is Baxter back next week, and do Baylor's LBs suck?

Edited September 18, 2023 by South Austin

[The Ace of Aces 5106]

6 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

It's impossible to overstate how bad the Baylors want to win this.  And, despite the groupthink on this board regarding an opponent's ability to improve over the course of the season ("they lost to X, they suck"), teams do improve.  Baylor has some good players.  This will be another dog fight for a good chunk of the game.  That's just our M.O this year.

Every team from here on out has the Texas game circled as it’s Super Bowl. We’ll get everyone’s best game and most complicated game plan. Will be hard for Texas to match that intensity every week so they need to perform well or else they’ll lose to some inferior less talented team.  

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

8 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

It's impossible to overstate how bad the Baylors want to win this.  And, despite the groupthink on this board regarding an opponent's ability to improve over the course of the season ("they lost to X, they suck"), teams do improve.  Baylor has some good players.  This will be another dog fight for a good chunk of the game.  That's just our M.O this year.

My point was that I believe Sarkisian and the players are well aware of this. 

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

Just now, The Ace of Aces said:

Every team from here on out has the Texas game circled as it’s Super Bowl. We’ll get everyone’s best game and most complicated game plan. Will be hard for Texas to match that intensity every week so they need to perform well or else they’ll lose to some inferior less talented team.  

Texas probably will lose to an inferior team. Almost every team, even a lot of national champions, do. Going undefeated is a low probability even with the odds very much in your favor in every single game. This isn’t a failing so much as the reality of playing 12-15 games. 

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

15 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

 And, despite the groupthink on this board regarding an opponent's ability to improve over the course of the season ("they lost to X, they suck"), teams do improve.  Baylor has some good players. 

The issue is Baylor hasn't improved week to week. They looked worse last week than they did against Texas State but the result was different because they were playing a bad FCS team. 

[Park Gothic 4976]

2 hours ago, Born Burnt said:

hang it in the louvre

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

Also of note, Baylor is 0-6 in the last 6 games against FBS teams and have lost by a margin of over 12 points a game. 

This is just a bad football program right now. Maybe they're on a path to "improve" but they've shown absolutely no signs of that. 

[Elmer_Fudd 22109]

Believe Baylors best DB is still out as well, Devin Lemear.  Went out same game as Shapen and was said to be out as long as he was.

[Mitch Cumsteen 18523]

I just watched Aranda's press conference and when you look at Dave Aranda, it's all about saying "Appreciate that" before answering every question.

He comes off like a really odd bird.

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

10 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Believe Baylors best DB is still out as well, Devin Lemear.  Went out same game as Shapen and was said to be out as long as he was.

I haven't seen any comment on Lemear from Aranda. It was a dislocated elbow so not sure about the recovery time. 

Either way, I posted this in the OL thread but I fully expect Baylor to sacrifice a pass rush to add numbers on the back end. Roeder even mentions below this tweet that it's probably going to be necessary this week against Texas. 

 

[deadshank 24651]

 

[LTtxfan 48970]

Yeah Ken Mar sucks... hopefully we don't get his crew anymore

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

This is likely going to be an identical gameplan as Wyoming. 

1) They're going to run the ball a lot and try to control TOP. Then a very simple passing game.

2) Defensively they will drop into a zone and only rush 3 or 4. The idea is to just keep the ball in front and limit big plays. Force Texas to methodically move the ball downfield. 

As Roeder said above, if Baylor doesn't add another DB to the mix I think Texas is going to destroy them in the passing game. Their DBs are really bad. 

[LTtxfan 48970]

10 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I just watched Aranda's press conference and when you look at Dave Aranda, it's all about saying "Appreciate that" before answering every question.

He comes off like a really odd bird.

 

Creepy dude... Backup QB is competitive on the ping pong table

 

[Fud 9545]

Spread has moved to -15.5 in some places 

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

27 minutes ago, Fud said:

Spread has moved to -15.5 in some places 

Bet it rises even a little more once there is more clarity on Shapen, Richardson, and Lemear. 

Starting QB, top RB, and best DB is fairly substantial. I think Lemear is probably the only one that might play though. 

[Hookem2147 20932]

We should be able to leave Jones and Banks on an island with Franklin and Hall. Both are good run defenders but are pretty whatever as pass rushers. Funny enough Byron Vaughns is mentioned as someone they like to bring in to rush the passer. 

I'm sure Aranda will have some stuff cooked up. He's a good schemer and game-planner historically. But I would think we will be able to make hay running it between the tackles. This is a game where you tell DJ Campbell to just maul whoever is in front of him.

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

Baylor's front 7 is also small. Not a single guy over 300 pounds. I know Ian Boyd is an idiot but he was right about Big 12 defenses. 

 

[LTtxfan 48970]

Wonder how Texas OL substitutions will be handled with Hutson out?

Maybe Cam Williams plays some right guard a few downs against baylor??

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

23 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

We should be able to leave Jones and Banks on an island with Franklin and Hall. Both are good run defenders but are pretty whatever as pass rushers. Funny enough Byron Vaughns is mentioned as someone they like to bring in to rush the passer. 

I'm sure Aranda will have some stuff cooked up. He's a good schemer and game-planner historically. But I would think we will be able to make hay running it between the tackles. This is a game where you tell DJ Campbell to just maul whoever is in front of him.

In 26 rushes Vaughns has 2 sacks and 4 hurries - he and TJ Franklin are a pretty decent pair of pass rushers.  But that's pretty much the only bright spot on that Baylor defense.

[Fud 9545]

ESPN's efficiency metric is interesting because it isolates only plays from this current season, instead of using recruiting/transfer data and previous seasons' results like SP+/FPI/FEI; the former is more interesting for seeing how teams are actually performing this year (albeit in a small sample size and noisy set), while the ladder is more useful for gambling 

In any event, I found it interesting that Rice and Wyoming have played essentially like middle of the pack Big XII teams, while Baylor and Okie State have played like two of the worst teams in the country

1) OU

14) Texas

23) UCF

26) KSU

36) BYU

39) Tech

44) Cincinnati 

46) WVU

49) KU

51) Wyoming

52) Rice

55) TCU

78) ISU

90) UH

93) OSU

112) BU

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/efficiencies

 

[Herpa Derpa 6112]

2 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

This will be another dog fight for a good chunk of the game.  That's just our M.O this year.

Despite the groupthink on this board regarding Texas' ability to improve over the course of the season ("they did this before, they always will"), teams do improve. 

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

This is definitely what we are going to see moving forward. 

 

[LTtxfan 48970]

2 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

It's impossible to overstate how bad the Baylors want to win this.  And, despite the groupthink on this board regarding an opponent's ability to improve over the course of the season ("they lost to X, they suck"), teams do improve.  Baylor has some good players.  This will be another dog fight for a good chunk of the game.  That's just our M.O this year.

 

 

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

2 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I just watched Aranda's press conference and when you look at Dave Aranda, it's all about saying "Appreciate that" before answering every question.

He comes off like a really odd bird.

Think of how weird you have to be to call Tom Herman a lifelong friend

[Duane Moore 5236]

4 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I'm not sure fucking with Vegas and the betting community is something any of these schools wants to do.

Hey, Moose! Rocco! Help Commissioner Yormark find his checkbook!

[EZ$ 2102]

26 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

This is definitely what we are going to see moving forward. 

 

Which is fine as long as our receivers don’t drop the ball and our QB can hit wide open people.  We sometimes have issues with those things….

[Valmy77 13094]

2 hours ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Every team from here on out has the Texas game circled as it’s Super Bowl. We’ll get everyone’s best game and most complicated game plan. Will be hard for Texas to match that intensity every week so they need to perform well or else they’ll lose to some inferior less talented team.  

Yes. We are a top 5 Texas team. Beating us would be one the greatest wins in most of these schools history. They will do whatever they can to win.

We have to be ready for a war week in and week out no matter how shitty the opponent might otherwise be.

[Bevo&Pevo 5027]

Remember the old days when a game like this stirred talk of renting a plane and banner?  I think my banner would say "Fakists, Rapists, and Bears remember God's watching you."

TEXAS!

[msucolt45 3989]

Nice summary.
Comments about Utah ?   Baylor had a 13-6 lead and gave up 2 TD's in the 4th Q, winner in final minutes (20-13).    Utah without starting QB but beat Florida with backup.
 

That was also Utah’s backup QB.

Hook’em!!!

[msucolt45 3989]

This should be our last trip to the “Bidet on the Brazos” for a minimum of 20 years! F them and relying on our gate attendance and attention!

Hook’em!!!

[Hank Kingsley 20696]

3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

I have to admit to being stoned and just finishing Season 1 of Mindhunter, but Aranda gives me the heebie jeebies.

 

 

[thunderlounge 7758]

48 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Think of how weird you have to be to call Tom Herman a lifelong friend

Friend, dealer, client… whatever. 

[msucolt45 3989]

I have to admit to being stoned and just finishing Season 1 of Mindhunter, but Aranda gives me the heebie jeebies.
 
 

You’re not wrong. Every road trip this year will be hostile and their “Bowl Game” like never before! Maybe someone needs to tell our players beforehand, as I stated prior to visiting Arky a couple years ago. Nothing but hate!

Hook’em!!!

[gmr548 16512]

1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

This is definitely what we are going to see moving forward. 

 

This was always the approach to take against Texas. Make an offense with an inconsistent streak be consistent, and make a play caller prone to impatience be patient. 

[Vertigo 20267]

Listened to Smoak and co on the sicem 365 podcast. They were bemoaning the fact that this game is in national primetime because they think they are going to get skulldrug. That gave me some warm fuzzies.

[Fud 9545]

Just now, Vertigo said:

Listened to Smoak and co on the sicem 365 podcast. They were bemoaning the fact that this game is in national primetime because they think they are going to get skulldrug. That gave me some warm fuzzies.

It's going up against Ohio State and Notre Dame, and to a lesser extent Iowa at Penn State, Oregon State at Washington State, and Arkansas at LSU

It probably won't get a ton of national eyeballs unless Texas is in trouble 

[Richard Kimball 1492]

2 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I just watched Aranda's press conference and when you look at Dave Aranda, it's all about saying "Appreciate that" before answering every question.

He comes off like a really odd bird.

He is. Not an evil guy, but one of those, "what color is the sky in your world" types. In 2021, when Baylor was wrecking shop, I just figured he'd found a way to communicate with players that I didn't get. Berenstain Bears references, came off as a bald Mr. Rogers without the sweater. The last game where they showed any fire was 2022 TCU. After they lost that game on a walk off field goal, they mailed in the rest of the season. 

I started getting in trouble with, not so much my publisher, but our readers, cause I said Baylor was going to be bad this year. When others were picking eight wins, I said the Bears would be fortunate to get to a bowl game. On a podcast, my publisher asked why I picked that (not aggressively, just out of curiosity) and I said they finished the season on a four game losing streak and nobody could name one position where they'd gotten better. 

Aranda doesn't run the program. The program runs around him. After Saturday, it won't make a shit to anyone on this site, but Mack Rhoades is also starting to feel the heat. Aranda's going to have to go, it's just when. 

[stork642 4498]

12 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I have to admit to being stoned and just finishing Season 1 of Mindhunter, but Aranda gives me the heebie jeebies.

 

 

[TexArcher 37508]

3 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

It's impossible to overstate how bad the Baylors want to win this.  And, despite the groupthink on this board regarding an opponent's ability to improve over the course of the season ("they lost to X, they suck"), teams do improve.  Baylor has some good players.  This will be another dog fight for a good chunk of the game.  That's just our M.O this year.

Aren't you doing the same thing, though?  Texas had a dogfight against Wyoming, so that's just our MO this year?  I don't think so.  We're gonna blow plenty of teams out.  And that improving week-to-week thing applies to us, too.

I expect this to look a lot more like the Rice game than the Wyoming game.  Texas 38-17, and probably never in any danger.

Also, fuck Baylor.

[Soliver465 398]

Looking forward to seeing the Redcat, just for spite.

Don’t think it will be necessary, just want to see Savion truck some fools.

[Fud 9545]

17 minutes ago, Richard Kimball said:

He is. Not an evil guy, but one of those, "what color is the sky in your world" types. In 2021, when Baylor was wrecking shop, I just figured he'd found a way to communicate with players that I didn't get. Berenstain Bears references, came off as a bald Mr. Rogers without the sweater. The last game where they showed any fire was 2022 TCU. After they lost that game on a walk off field goal, they mailed in the rest of the season. 

I started getting in trouble with, not so much my publisher, but our readers, cause I said Baylor was going to be bad this year. When others were picking eight wins, I said the Bears would be fortunate to get to a bowl game. On a podcast, my publisher asked why I picked that (not aggressively, just out of curiosity) and I said they finished the season on a four game losing streak and nobody could name one position where they'd gotten better. 

Aranda doesn't run the program. The program runs around him. After Saturday, it won't make a shit to anyone on this site, but Mack Rhoades is also starting to feel the heat. Aranda's going to have to go, it's just when. 

Any idea what the buyout number is?