Game Week Thread Week 4, 2023: Texas @ Baylor

[ztejas 43266]

13 hours ago, msucolt45 said:

If you get there early enough, Chip and Joanna’s “Magnolia Square” is just West of 35 and the Baylor campus. Short walk after eating an early brunch/lunch and buying shiplap type “creative” things, according to my wife! Last trip to the UT @ Baylor game, she insisted that we took my truck, just in case she saw a “larger” item in the touristy area. So I asked her who’d be watching our truck while we’re at the game - so I won!

The only thing North of the river is the Bidet on the Brazos and a Track & Field complex.

Hook’em!!!

The nice thing about this strategy is that you might kill yourself before you even get to the game, just in case Texas lays an egg. 

[lemonandaturd 4285]

Baylor's offensive line looks offensive.  Our DL should have a good day.  

[BERT 4351]

I'm guessing Aranda is going to show something different than what we've seen so far this year. Just like Rice and Wyoming did. Also guessing Sark will stick with his game plan in the first half no matter what until second half. Hopefully I'm wrong and he treats conference games different than those "pre season" games. 

[LTtxfan 48972]

17 hours ago, Scholz said:

Every Rig XII game is going to be tight this year.  Refs will make sure of it.

Definitely a concern that Rig12 Refs will provide some fuckery in a night game in waco on ABC.

Also this...

 

[Hookem2147 20932]

Scipio Tex Baylor preview

Spoiler

The Bears and Longhorns have been playing each other since 1901 and this will be the last installment in regular season play for…forever. The Horns hold the series lead at 80-28-4. However, Baylor has won 4 of the last 6 in Waco despite Texas winning 6 of the last 8 overall.

Texas is as indifferent or glad to never play the Bears again as Baylor admins are sad to lose a television slot, an institutional jihad and a guaranteed home sellout at the Bidet on the Brazos. However, future epic matchups against Cincinnati and Oklahoma State should compensate nicely.

2023 Baylor is 1-2 and has lost their last six games against Power 5 teams dating back to last year. They also haven’t covered the spread in their last seven contests and Dave Aranda is 5-10 against ranked teams during his time in Waco. Their sole win this year was against Long Island, which somehow has a football team and somehow that football team doesn’t play wearing Joey Buttafuoco tiger striped gym pants with an IROC-Z decal on their helmets.

Baylor beat LIU 30-7 after a weather delay. A necessary win given that the Bears lost their home opener to Texas State 42-31 despite being 27 point favorites, but the Bears played much better the following week against nationally ranked Utah, still losing 20-13, albeit in odd circumstances.

This is Baylor’s 4th home game in a row and they’ll be keyed up for a face-saving win against Texas. Unfortunately for Baylor, being hyped won’t help them much if Texas takes the initiative in game planning.

OFFENSE

Expect a heavy dose of outside zone, screen game, single read play action to the tight ends and some deep shots. That’s the offense. If Baylor can run the ball on Texas, everything opens up. If they can’t, the percentages are against them. Stopping outside zone puts a heavy burden on the physicality and discipline of the Longhorn edges, linebackers and safeties, so it’s important that Pete K’s substitution patterns take this into account with personnel groups.

On a per play basis, Baylor’s offense hasn’t been terrible, but they’re incredibly inconsistent without Blake Shapen at the helm and they’ve seen a noticeable total program talent drop off since 2021.

Quarterback

Blake Shapen is still suffering from a MCL injury and won’t play against Texas. His replacement Sawyer Robertson is a former 4 star from Lubbock who transferred to Waco from Mississippi State and he’s been shaky in relief. He’s currently completing 45% of his passes and has thrown 1 touchdown and 3 picks in 2.5 games. He’s a capable runner with a solid arm and has been able to find Baylor’s speedy receiving corps downfield with a 15.9 yards per completion average, but accuracy, turnovers and consistency have been his main deficits. The 6-4, 220 pounder has also been pretty good at sack avoidance to date.

Texas could also see RJ Martinez, a 5-11 former star at Austin Westwood who transferred to Waco after starring at Northern Arizona. He has fewer traits, but more feel for the game.

Running Back

Dominic Richardson’s game status is unknown, but unlikely after sustaining a sprain against Utah. The 180 pound Richard Reese was a freshman break out star last year, but has gotten off to a slow start in 2023. Still, he remains dynamic and slippery and runs fearlessly for his size. He’ll split time with bigger back Dawson Pendergrass, who looks like an athletic 7/11 night shift clerk in Mineola with solid contact balance. The Baylor ground game hasn’t been bad, but they’re not gashing people at over 6 yards per carry as they did with guys like Abram Smith toting the rock.

Offensive Line

The left side of the line has been pretty good, but the right side has been a problem. 2/3rds of the good side are BYU transfers and brothers Clark and Campbell Barrington, center and left tackle respectively, sandwiching left guard Gavin Byers. Baylor was fortunate to land both of them in the portal, but it does make one question their native OL development. The side of shame features 6-8, 320 pound redshirt freshman guard Kaden Sieracki and right tackles Elijah Ellis and Tate Williams (they’ve both gotten run). Guess which side Baylor likes to run to and which side they give help to in pass protection?

Tight End/Wide Receivers

The wide receivers are fast, but either not physical (Monaray Baldwin) or inconsistent (Ketron Jackson). None of them are particularly complete, but they look good on the hoof and they can all scoot. With Shapen at QB, they have a much more robust passing attack. Without him, it’s feast or famine. Hal Presley and Jonah Burton are co-equal starters and arguably their most consistent receivers.

Tight end Drake Dabney has three receiving touchdowns on the year and North Texas transfer Jake Roberts is very capable with 47 career receptions. Look for the tight ends on play action off of outside zone.

They do not want Sawyer Robertson making reads in a crowd. Expect a lot of single read passing game and set piece offense.

DEFENSE

Baylor has long term scheme continuity and some talent overall, but the secondary was victimized by GJ Kinne’s YOLO spread passing attack and they got bullied around a bit by Utah running the ball with their backup dual threat QB.

Aranda’s base is a 3-3-5 “tite front” which features three interior DL (with DEs in the classic 4i spot heads up on the tackle) backed by three linebackers and a swing player at nickel who is both a primary blitzer and coverage guy. The odds of Aranda throwing everything at Texas in terms of stunts, blitzes and deceptive coverages is 100%. The good news is if you block it up and execute, big plays will be readily available in the passing and running game.

DL

Defensive ends Gabe Hall (6’6, 295) and TJ Franklin (6-5, 270) are seasoned starters and quality players, well-suited to the Aranda 4i requirements. Hall was the player who strip sacked and scored against Texas last year and Franklin is looking friskier this year after a rededicated year of S&C. The problem with Baylor’s D is that their preferred front requires a disruptive and double team demanding nose tackle to really elevate. Siaki Ika is in the NFL and some spring transfers haven’t panned. They’re relying on scrappy 275 pound Cooper Lanz backed up by former Oregon backup 6-5 295 pound Treven Ma’ae, which is Tongan for “productive as a coconut” at nose tackle. For that reason, I don’t think that Baylor will play their front traditionally and will likely try to shoot gaps and play games to exploit Lanz’s active motor. Texas needs to get body on body and wear them down. DJ Campbell will be targeted and he needs to play with awareness and certainty.

LB

Returning starting MLB Matt Jones is physical but lacks range at 6-3, 250+. Liberty transfer Mike Smith is much quicker at WLB, but he’s still adjusting to the new system. The Jack position features a tag team of 235 pound Kyler Jordan, 6-7, 250 pound Garmon Randolph (hobbled by an ankle sprain) and former Longhorn and Utah State player Byron Vaughns. Vaughns has put on weight and shown good ability as a pass rusher and is tied for the team sack lead with TJ Franklin. Expect to see him at least 30 snaps on Saturday.

This unit can be exploited in the passing game. Catch the ball, Brooks.

DB

Baylor has seen substantially better play since their opening debacle, but Utah and Long Island aren’t exactly WRU either. FS Devin Lemear is struggling with an elbow injury and the Baylor corners are green.

7th year (!) nickel Bryson Jackson can be exploited in coverage and he is a much more comfortable as a blitzer and disruptor in their vital STAR role than the multifaceted super nickel they need. Get Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell into the slot to exploit this matchup fully. Jackson goes 6-2, 210 and he’s very SPARQy, but he lacks the basic man coverage ability that this key role in the Baylor defense requires. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Baylor sub him out for a smaller defensive back if Texas spreads the field out or plays matchups, but that will create some run game opportunities as this player is vital for holding the edge in Aranda’s front.

Baylor’s secondary isn’t that big overall.

FINAL

This game comes down to how proficiently Texas can exploit Baylor’s inadequacies on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, Baylor lacks a consistent quarterback who can make tougher reads and the right side of their offensive line is a problem in both run blocking and pass protection.

Defensively, Baylor is good at exploiting holes in pass protection, but Aranda doesn’t have an ideal nose tackle or a complete nickel – probably the two most important positions in the Bear defense. In fact, two former Baylor commitments – Byron Murphy and Jahdae Barron – would fix what ails them, but they’re starting for the good guys on Saturday. Tough luck, Bears.

The Texas game plan should focus on putting Baylor on the defensive this Saturday by highlighting their soft spots instead of unduly worrying about how Baylor may attack us.

 

[LTtxfan 48972]

EMBRACE THE HATE

[Fud 9546]

 

[Red Five 40661]

On offense, I'm starting to be reminded of some early Mack teams with Simms, Roy Williams, Benson, etc. That "shouldn't we be better than this?" feeling, where we'd be 10th in the conference in total offense with a bunch of first rounders. We need a get-right, 55 point game in a big way.

[MuellerHorn 4195]

26 minutes ago, BERT said:

I'm guessing Aranda is going to show something different than what we've seen so far this year. Just like Rice and Wyoming did. Also guessing Sark will stick with his game plan in the first half no matter what until second half. Hopefully I'm wrong and he treats conference games different than those "pre season" games. 

I would assume our opponents will play some variation of a cover-3 cloud until Sark shows he can attack it effectively, (and more importantly) Ewers proves he can read it properly and move the ball. And of paramount importance, Texas has to have an effective running game to beat this defense.

Oklahoma State, TCU, and Wyoming all gave Texas fits with this defensive look.

[CashMcCoy 3199]

10 minutes ago, Fud said:

 

[UnhappilyMarried 815]

3 minutes ago, Fud said:

 

Turnover margin and 2-3 chunk plays per game have gotten us out of the inconsistency hole.
 

New clock rules would’ve been a godsend in the past for our sputtering second halves. If we don’t get hot starts in conference, Quinn is going to get 7-8 drives a game to work with and right now we can count on at least half of those being duds.

[Js1 85109]

1 minute ago, UnhappilyMarried said:

Turnover margin and 2-3 chunk plays per game have gotten us out of the inconsistency hole.
 

New clock rules would’ve been a godsend in the past for our sputtering second halves. If we don’t get hot starts in conference, Quinn is going to get 7-8 drives a game to work with and right now we can count on at least half of those being duds.

Because of course, our offense will not improve over the course of the season. Nope. Teams never improve offensively as they get into a rhythm and consistency 

[Hookem2147 20932]

4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

On offense, I'm starting to be reminded of some early Mack teams with Simms, Roy Williams, Benson, etc. That "shouldn't we be better than this?" feeling, where we'd be 10th in the conference in total offense with a bunch of first rounders. We need a get-right, 55 point game in a big way.

Looks like we are middle of pack in the Big 12 in yards per game and 45th nationally currently. Will be interesting to check back in 2-3 weeks once conference play starts for everyone and some of the outlier performances against Ball State get bunched in with playing actual opponents. 

[UnhappilyMarried 815]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Because of course, our offense will not improve over the course of the season. Nope. Teams never improve offensively as they get into a rhythm and consistency 

I specifically clarified that right now half the drives are duds.

I expect more consistency, but I also expect a handful of more talented defensive coordinators than any we’ve faced YTD with hyper-specific game plans to give Quinn trouble. 

[BERT 4351]

11 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

I would assume our opponents will play some variation of a cover-3 cloud until Sark shows he can attack it effectively, (and more importantly) Ewers proves he can read it properly and move the ball. And of paramount importance, Texas has to have an effective running game to beat this defense.

Oklahoma State, TCU, and Wyoming all gave Texas fits with this defensive look.

Sounds like a 2 back kinda day. But i'm an idiot lol

[MuellerHorn 4195]

11 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Looks like we are middle of pack in the Big 12 in yards per game and 45th nationally currently. Will be interesting to check back in 2-3 weeks once conference play starts for everyone and some of the outlier performances against Ball State get bunched in with playing actual opponents. 

For sure. Rice, Alabama, and Wyoming are not bad opponents. Even with two G5 teams, Texas has faced a pretty good non-conference schedule.

[MuellerHorn 4195]

6 minutes ago, BERT said:

Sounds like a 2 back kinda day. But i'm an idiot lol

It'll help to have Baxter back (I think). I bet we'll see a good dose of 21 personnel with some 22 thrown in. 

[GoldAppleCorps 617]

The Baylor offense only works when the stretch running game is getting yards. They want to jog to one side or the other, widen the gaps, and let the RB pick one to run through. Obviously, this works better when your RB is a basher. He needs to usually slam through a tackle for 3-4 ugly yards. Baylor does not have that guy. Their current RBs are indecisive and unable to force the issue if it isn't there.

T'Vondre Sweat can make everyone's job simpler by blowing up the middle of the field. Without that to play off of, the Baylor running game dies under gap integrity (Anthony Hill, this isn't the game to overplay your role).

The Baylor QB cannot create in the passing  game. They rely on the running game forcing defenders to overcommit. They're looking for downfield passes to receivers standing WIDE open by themselves, since the defender committed to the run. If the run game leaves them in 3rd and 7, they'll pray that a dragging TE gets ignored. Other than that, it's a scramble and throwaway.

If the Texas offense ever wanted to run between the tackles, this is the game. Blast their lightweight NT out of the A gap and have at it. It won't be glamorous for the first drive, but Baylor will either need to commit additional defenders quickly or face an easy but inescapable death. Once those defenders commit, just use your toys to score how you will.

Texas' only real opponent in this game is Texas. Baylor cannot compete directly. This game will be functionally over as soon as Texas executes its fundamentals. If that happens from the start, Baylor will fold in the middle of 2nd quarter and may realistically end the Aranda era. They're a fragile, apathetic bunch right now who are mentally checked out. They'll give it their best in the beginning out of pride. If there's success (because Texas allowed it), the game could be on. Otherwise, they'll have emptied the bag and surrendered.

[LTtxfan 48972]

19 minutes ago, BERT said:

Sounds like a 2 back kinda day. But i'm an idiot lol

 

[MuellerHorn 4195]

29 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

The Baylor offense only works when the stretch running game is getting yards. They want to jog to one side or the other, widen the gaps, and let the RB pick one to run through. Obviously, this works better when your RB is a basher. He needs to usually slam through a tackle for 3-4 ugly yards. Baylor does not have that guy. Their current RBs are indecisive and unable to force the issue if it isn't there.

T'Vondre Sweat can make everyone's job simpler by blowing up the middle of the field. Without that to play off of, the Baylor running game dies under gap integrity (Anthony Hill, this isn't the game to overplay your role).

The Baylor QB cannot create in the passing  game. They rely on the running game forcing defenders to overcommit. They're looking for downfield passes to receivers standing WIDE open by themselves, since the defender committed to the run. If the run game leaves them in 3rd and 7, they'll pray that a dragging TE gets ignored. Other than that, it's a scramble and throwaway.

If the Texas offense ever wanted to run between the tackles, this is the game. Blast their lightweight NT out of the A gap and have at it. It won't be glamorous for the first drive, but Baylor will either need to commit additional defenders quickly or face an easy but inescapable death. Once those defenders commit, just use your toys to score how you will.

Texas' only real opponent in this game is Texas. Baylor cannot compete directly. This game will be functionally over as soon as Texas executes its fundamentals. If that happens from the start, Baylor will fold in the middle of 2nd quarter and may realistically end the Aranda era. They're a fragile, apathetic bunch right now who are mentally checked out. They'll give it their best in the beginning out of pride. If there's success (because Texas allowed it), the game could be on. Otherwise, they'll have emptied the bag and surrendered.

This is a great encapsulation of what Sark's game plan should be Saturday evening.

All indications point to Sark being a self-aware and change-oriented person/coach. He's actually pretty vulnerable and reflective in plenty of his media appearances - practically the opposite of Jimbo, Herman, etc. However, like all coaches, Sark does have tendencies and can abandon this correct plan of attack for those tendencies too quickly. Quinn is capable of the same errors in terms of targeting Worthy too quickly, even when a third read might be wide open for a better gain/completion.

Ergo, I believe we'll learn a lot about both Sark and Quinn against Baylor. This is a game Texas should win convincingly due to both scheme and a large talent gap. Nevertheless, given the motivation Baylor, Aranda, and the conference has for Baylor to win, plus the proclivity for Sark's Texas teams to play to the level of their opponents, we'll see what happens. I'll be interested to see how Sark and Ewers may adapt. A lot has been said regarding "embrace the hate," but I want this team to really show me in conference play.

Edited September 20, 2023 by MuellerHorn

[6th Street 6357]

1 hour ago, Fud said:

 

I think there was a point during the Wyoming game where we were 0-7 on 3rd downs. That can't happen. 

[BERT 4351]

27 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

I see what you're doing......................................... motherfucker

[MuellerHorn 4195]

Something we should all be watching closely with Hutson out is how opposing defenses attack the right side of the offensive line. If I were a DC, I would be bringing different pressures at Campbell all game long. Communication between Jones and Campbell, as well as Campbell's blitz recognition, needs to improve.

At the end of this sack, Jones is left visibly wondering why Campbell didn't pick up the end when a blitzing LB walked up to the LOS late.

 

[Born Burnt 6147]

Revised by request...

Edited September 20, 2023 by Born Burnt
I'm an idiot

[bbq chips 10]

18 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’m Going to this game, it’ll be my first ever experience watching Texas on the road.  Any recs on where to pre-game?

Are you in TX? If so I'd catch some games in the state while you can. Once we move to the sec the travel gets far worse.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

18 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’m Going to this game, it’ll be my first ever experience watching Texas on the road.  Any recs on where to pre-game?

I'll tell you what--if I were going to this game, I'd pre-game in Fort Worth.  SMU plays at TCU at 11:00.  Get you some Iron Skillet action for the last time for the foreseeable future.  Go to Joe T's for a late lunch.  And then head down to Waco for the Texas game.

Pull into the Bidet on the Brazos just in time to take care of what is going to come naturally after your meal at Joe T's.

[BurgleBro 772]

1 hour ago, MuellerHorn said:

I would assume our opponents will play some variation of a cover-3 cloud until Sark shows he can attack it effectively, (and more importantly) Ewers proves he can read it properly and move the ball. And of paramount importance, Texas has to have an effective running game to beat this defense.

Oklahoma State, TCU, and Wyoming all gave Texas fits with this defensive look.

Everyone giving Sark and Quinn the same look should help them learn and overcome it soon IMO.   What better way to learn other than reps.  

Putting my trust in them making strides on it coming into this weekend. 

[Daichee Bell 2925]

18 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

I can honestly say I hate Rapylor more than any other football team. I hate their lame ass color scheme, I hate their city and their corrupt PD, I hate their faux christian bullshit, I hate their fair weather fans, I hate rape and rape enablers, I hate fArt Briles, I hate Ken Starr, I hate I hate hate hate

 

 

 

[redswingline 1057]

1 hour ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

The Baylor offense only works when the stretch running game is getting yards. They want to jog to one side or the other, widen the gaps, and let the RB pick one to run through. Obviously, this works better when your RB is a basher. He needs to usually slam through a tackle for 3-4 ugly yards. Baylor does not have that guy. Their current RBs are indecisive and unable to force the issue if it isn't there.

T'Vondre Sweat can make everyone's job simpler by blowing up the middle of the field. Without that to play off of, the Baylor running game dies under gap integrity (Anthony Hill, this isn't the game to overplay your role).

The Baylor QB cannot create in the passing  game. They rely on the running game forcing defenders to overcommit. They're looking for downfield passes to receivers standing WIDE open by themselves, since the defender committed to the run. If the run game leaves them in 3rd and 7, they'll pray that a dragging TE gets ignored. Other than that, it's a scramble and throwaway.

If the Texas offense ever wanted to run between the tackles, this is the game. Blast their lightweight NT out of the A gap and have at it. It won't be glamorous for the first drive, but Baylor will either need to commit additional defenders quickly or face an easy but inescapable death. Once those defenders commit, just use your toys to score how you will.

Texas' only real opponent in this game is Texas. Baylor cannot compete directly. This game will be functionally over as soon as Texas executes its fundamentals. If that happens from the start, Baylor will fold in the middle of 2nd quarter and may realistically end the Aranda era. They're a fragile, apathetic bunch right now who are mentally checked out. They'll give it their best in the beginning out of pride. If there's success (because Texas allowed it), the game could be on. Otherwise, they'll have emptied the bag and surrendered.

I spend a lot of time looking at our opponents and data (among other matchups) because I like to throw a few bucks here and there at games.

When the line started it was at -8. That was free money but man that # jumped quick. 

You didn't say it outright, but you described it. They run the wide zone. It's all about  OL movement and cutbacks by the RB's. They absolutely don't have a basher anymore, so that means their offense stalls often. Lots of stops at the LOS for an opposing defense. They cannot throw over the top because they don't have a WR that can run by people. I think their starter is hurt and that means even less throwing ability.  As far as aranda  - they are tied into a massive contract and kicking the shit out of them isn't going to change his employment status - but it will still be fun to do it.

I missed -8 and laid off -15 for a number of reasons. Everything points to a +20 pt win and them scoring 10 or less.

Edited September 20, 2023 by redswingline

[LTtxfan 48972]

22 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'll tell you what--if I were going to this game, I'd pre-game in Fort Worth.  SMU plays at TCU at 11:00.  Get you some Iron Skillet action for the last time for the foreseeable future.  Go to Joe T's for a late lunch.  And then head down to Waco for the Texas game.

Pull into the Bidet on the Brazos just in time to take care of what is going to come naturally after your meal at Joe T's.

Brown water margarita's at Joe T's are fantastic and potent -- not sure a roadtrip to "Bidet on the Brazos" would be in the cards without a designated driver. 

Love Joe T's just remember that unless things have changed there, Joe T's only takes cash.  😋

[GoldAppleCorps 617]

10 minutes ago, redswingline said:

I spend a lot of time looking at our opponents and data (among other matchups) because I like to throw a few bucks here and there at games.

When the line started it was at -8. That was free money but man that # jumped quick. 

You didn't say it outright, but you described it. They run the wide zone. It's all about  OL movement and cutbacks by the RB's. They absolutely don't have a basher anymore, so that means their offense stalls often. Lots of stops at the LOS for an opposing defense. They cannot throw over the top because they don't have a WR that can run by people. I think their starter is hurt and that means even less throwing ability.  As far as aranda  - they are tied into a massive contract and kicking the shit out of them isn't going to change his employment status - but it will still be fun to do it.

I missed -8 and laid off -15 for a number of reasons. Everything points to a +20 pt win and them scoring 10 or less.

Really, your uncertainty here is only how much you believe in Texas' ability to execute fundamentals. The Texas team that lined up against Bama and executed can name its score against Baylor. A Texas team that defensively guesses at gaps, comes off assignments to chase RBs, offensively throws off back feet and clangs easy passes off receivers con manos de piedra will find themselves on SportsCenter as giddy students carry away the goalposts.

[LTtxfan 48972]

25 minutes ago, redswingline said:

They cannot throw over the top because they don't have a WR that can run by people. I think their starter is hurt and that means even less throwing ability.  

 

What about this guy having the speed to go deep for baylor ??

 

[texifornia 56519]

Remember when he was a Baylor signee? I remember

 

[redswingline 1057]

24 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

Really, your uncertainty here is only how much you believe in Texas' ability to execute fundamentals. The Texas team that lined up against Bama and executed can name its score against Baylor. A Texas team that defensively guesses at gaps, comes off assignments to chase RBs, offensively throws off back feet and clangs easy passes off receivers con manos de piedra will find themselves on SportsCenter as giddy students carry away the goalposts.

 I use a combination of stats, information (player injuries, game location etc) and watching teams before betting. For this particular matchup, I laid off due to a lack of data points. I know baylor is bad, but I'm not certain how bad, yet.  For me, laying off happens quite a bit at the beginning of the season because the fewer the games, the less data we have. I'm also not impressed by our offensive efficiency. Plus this is also a road game - which increases (betting) risk.  A key marker for me is comparable opponents (vague, I know but I won't get into detail on it) and we don't have that data either. If I step away from all of that, I'm certain we win and would not be surprised if it was 42-10. But I'm not going to lay down big coin on it.

[Atticus 3922]

35 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

Really, your uncertainty here is only how much you believe in Texas' ability to execute fundamentals. The Texas team that lined up against Bama and executed can name its score against Baylor. A Texas team that defensively guesses at gaps, comes off assignments to chase RBs, offensively throws off back feet and clangs easy passes off receivers con manos de piedra will find themselves on SportsCenter as giddy students carry away the goalposts.

They don’t have enough to give our defense true issues. I also believe Wyoming has a better OL than them. Wyoming is also better coached. 
 

If we turn the ball over or give up big plays on special teams, then this can get close. If we play a similar game to how we did on offense last week, we will get another unimpressive win. Sawyer is gonna throw a bunch of picks as long as we make them throw the ball. 
 

Pound the ball, play clean, score TDs, play defense, and they’ll be forced to adjust on both sides of the ball. We can start throwing more once they do. 

[Valmy77 13094]

I hope the staff recognizes that we have an elite defense this year and call the offense to help them.

High percentage passes and run the ball to keep the clock moving and reduce the number of possessions the other team has. Our defense can shut teams out if we do that.

I don't want to see many three incomplete pass three and outs. 

[redswingline 1057]

49 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

What about this guy having the speed to go deep for baylor ??

I was looking at tape a couple days ago. Their WR's could not get separation vs tx st or utah. That certainly will not improve when playing us.

Plus, they are playing a backup QB that is starting his 2nd game? Even if a WR gets open, who thinks their QB can get him the ball?

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by redswingline

[Skipper 6103]

49 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

Really, your uncertainty here is only how much you believe in Texas' ability to execute fundamentals.

Yes,

 

Quote

The Texas team that lined up against Bama and executed can name its score against Baylor. 

Also yes.   

 

Texas tends to play to its opponents level (which often manifests itself in shit execution of fundamentals) until proven otherwise.

[Burt Macklin 18998]

6 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

reduce the number of possessions the other team has.

Trying to reduce the number of possessions when you’re the more talented team in every game left on your schedule is a very stupid strategy.

[Fud 9546]

6 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I hope the staff recognizes that we have an elite defense this year and call the offense to help them.

High percentage passes and run the ball to keep the clock moving and reduce the number of possessions the other team has. Our defense can shut teams out if we do that.

I don't want to see many three incomplete pass three and outs. 

If you're the superior team, you shouldn't want to limit possessions in a game

[ousux 5587]

I'll tell you what--if I were going to this game, I'd pre-game in Fort Worth.  SMU plays at TCU at 11:00.  Get you some Iron Skillet action for the last time for the foreseeable future.  Go to Joe T's for a late lunch.  And then head down to Waco for the Texas game.
Pull into the Bidet on the Brazos just in time to take care of what is going to come naturally after your meal at Joe T's.

I vastly prefer Los Vaqueros for TexMex, and it's just a short walk away from Joe T's. Of course FW now has a variety of great restaurants serving just about any type cuisine you can think of.

[redswingline 1057]

3 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Trying to reduce the number of possessions when you’re the more talented team in every game left on your schedule is a very stupid strategy.

I agree.

It is what  coach phatterson did at tcu, for years. Limit possessions and keep it close.

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

17 minutes ago, ousux said:

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'll tell you what--if I were going to this game, I'd pre-game in Fort Worth.  SMU plays at TCU at 11:00.  Get you some Iron Skillet action for the last time for the foreseeable future.  Go to Joe T's for a late lunch.  And then head down to Waco for the Texas game.
Pull into the Bidet on the Brazos just in time to take care of what is going to come naturally after your meal at Joe T's.

I vastly prefer Los Vaqueros for TexMex, and it's just a short walk away from Joe T's. Of course FW now has a variety of great restaurants serving just about any type cuisine you can think of.

Also El Patron, unless the goal is simply to sit outside and drink margaritas. 

[ztejas 43266]

35 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Remember when he was a Baylor signee? I remember

 

I hear he also graded out highly in the laying the fucking wood and dragging nuts across faces metrics. 

[ousux 5587]

Also El Patron, unless the goal is simply to sit outside and drink margaritas. 

Yes, if that's the goal then Joe T's is hard to beat. Plus lately it's been attracting celebs in town for whatever reason.

[ztejas 43266]

37 minutes ago, Atticus said:

They don’t have enough to give our defense true issues. I also believe Wyoming has a better OL than them. Wyoming is also better coached. 

If you go back and watch the Wyoming game, their QB played pretty fucking lights out (given what his talent level was supposed to be) outside of the pick six once they were in desperation mode. He got almost everything he could out of our defense - which admittedly wasn't a lot. 

If this Baylor QB doesn't play one of the best games of his life they are going to be in for a long fucking night. 

Granted, we've seen QBs pull that shit time and time again against Texas. Maybe Ant Hill or Sorrell can knock that bullshit out of him early. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by ztejas

[CastHorn 794]

42 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Remember when he was a Baylor signee? I remember

 

Byron Murphy Too.

[Josef Pwag 1727]

I lost my college virginity in a study lounge on the 8th floor of Jester West many years ago. We figured out how to lock the study lounge doors from the inside so we could have privacy if our roommates were home. I've written a lot of poetry about that night. A lot. I'm not sure if you can handle it. I'm posting all of it in this thread if Texas loses to Baylor. Govern yourself accordingly. 

[ChickenNuggets 1611]

poetry?

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

28 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

poetry?

Oh freddled gruntbuggly,

Thy micturations are to me, 

As plurdled gabbleblotchits, in midsummer morning

On a lurgid bee.