Game Week Thread Week 5, 2023: Kansas at Texas

[Vertigo 20276]

3 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Per this ESPN-Allstate playoff predictor, Texas has the third best odds to make it into the playoffs, after Ohio State and Oklahoma.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor


 

This playoff predictor is ass my dude. Are people really buying this OU team? And us having a better chance than Georgia seems odd.

[cmontexas 3270]

32 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

This playoff predictor is ass my dude. Are people really buying this OU team? And us having a better chance than Georgia seems odd.

It is stupid, and we are better than OU. Having said that, I'm starting to buy this OU team at least as much as they should be ranked above the 1 loss SEC teams. They didnt blow out Cincinnati but they were never in any danger of losing that game either; Cincinnati is a real team with athletes. They feel good about their defense, and it looks like Venables can coach. Clemson has not been the same without him.

We should beat them 8 or 9 times out of 10. We're going to have to beat them 2 out of 2.

[Rickylovesweed 14262]

3 hours ago, Vertigo said:

This playoff predictor is ass my dude. Are people really buying this OU team? And us having a better chance than Georgia seems odd.

I'm not buying OU as a playoff team because 1 loss and they likely won't get in based on how shitty their strength of schedule is. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Rickylovesweed

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

7 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Style points matter. There’s a real possibility of 5 undefeated teams happening and not destroying who we should be destroying could leave us on the outside looking in.   We got fucked on the last time we faced an all things being equal scenario but one team was hanging 60 on everyone even though we belonged. 

When was the last time there were five unbeaten P5 teams at the end of the regular season? 

[Js1 85258]

2 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

When was the last time there were five unbeaten P5 teams at the end of the regular season? 

Seems extremely unlikely

Texas/OU would likely play each other twice, in addition to Texas facing KU and KSU and OU facing Kansas

Michigan/Ohio State play each other

Pac 12 is going to cannibalize itself between Washington, USC, WSU, Utah, Oregon

FSU has to play Duke, Miami and UF

UGA has to play UF, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Mizzou and the SECW champ

 

Almost no chance of 5 undefeated teams 

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

Just now, Js1 said:

Seems extremely unlikely

Texas/OU would likely play each other twice, in addition to Texas facing KU and KSU and OU facing Kansas

Michigan/Ohio State play each other

Pac 12 is going to cannibalize itself between Washington, USC, WSU, Utah, Oregon

FSU has to play Duke, Miami and UF

UGA has to play UF, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Mizzou and the SECW champ

 

Almost no chance of 5 undefeated teams 

That was my point. A lot of people talk about stuff like that, but going unbeaten is extremely difficult no matter how good a team is, let alone having five teams with intersecting schedules do it. 

[Burt Macklin 19019]

4 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Cincinnati is a real team with athletes.

You’re talking about the same Cincinnati team that lost to Miami of Ohio and starts a QB who can’t throw, right? 

[ztejas 43411]

8 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Per this ESPN-Allstate playoff predictor, Texas has the third best odds to make it into the playoffs, after Ohio State and Oklahoma.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor


 

Sounds like a really stupid fucking predictor.

[Rickylovesweed 14262]

4 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Cincinnati is a real team with athletes.

Not sure if serious. 

They lost to Miami OH and barely beat Pittsburgh. They're ranked #53 in ESPN's efficiency rankings. They fucking suck. 

 

[ztejas 43411]

1 hour ago, Doc Daneeka said:

When was the last time there were five unbeaten P5 teams at the end of the regular season? 

Certainly not in my lifetime and I've been alive for the entirety of the B12. 

In 08 everyone had a loss I believe (I know us and OU did - think FLA did as well)

I can't think of a year where more than 3 P5 teams finished unbeaten, and 2004 is the only year off the top of my head where that was true. 

In 2009 you had TCU, Cincy and Boise State all unbeaten to end the year joining Texas and Bama - but those were obviously all G5 teams. 

2018 we had Bama, Clemson, ND all finish unbeaten.

2019 we had Clemson, tOSU and LSU unbeaten.

I went back a few ap/coaches poll years and there was nothing close to 5.

 

Long story short there is a 0% chance that a 13-0 Texas team is left out of the CFP. It's fairly unlikely we'd not be the 1 seed. 

It's extremely unlikely a 12-1 Texas team gets left out. 

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

1 minute ago, ztejas said:

Certainly not in my lifetime and I've been alive for the entirety of the B12. 

In 08 everyone had a loss I believe (I know us and OU did - think FLA did as well)

I can't think of a year where more than 3 P5 teams finished unbeaten, and 2004 is the only year off the top of my head where that was true. 

In 2009 you had TCU, Cincy and Boise State all unbeaten to end the year joining Texas and Bama - but those were obviously all G5 teams. 

2018 we had Bama, Clemson, ND all finish unbeaten.

2019 we had Clemson, tOSU and LSU unbeaten.

I went back a few ap/coaches poll years and there was nothing close to 5.

 

Long story short there is a 0% chance that a 13-0 Texas team is left out of the CFP. It's fairly unlikely we'd not be the 1 seed. 

It's extremely unlikely a 12-1 Texas team gets left out. 

Agreed. I think a 12-1 Texas probably has about an 80% shot if the loss is in the conference championship and over 90% if it’s not.

A 13-0 Texas gets regardless of whether there are 5 undefeated teams or not which isn’t going to happen, anyway. 

[cmontexas 3270]

36 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

You’re talking about the same Cincinnati team that lost to Miami of Ohio and starts a QB who can’t throw, right? 

 

14 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Not sure if serious. 

They lost to Miami OH and barely beat Pittsburgh. They're ranked #53 in ESPN's efficiency rankings. They fucking suck. 

 

 

Shot putting QB aside, they had a defense that was big and fast enough to give a mediocre offense like Oklahoma problems. The  ou defense is certainly capable of keeping them in games though if our offense has a bad day

That said, Quinn has shown up for big games and Im confident he will get the job done and Gabriel doesn't scare me at all

Edited September 26, 2023 by cmontexas

[thunderlounge 7813]

4 hours ago, cmontexas said:

We should beat them 8 or 9 times out of 10. We're going to have to beat them 2 out of 2.

So a double dose of sooner tears?

Get the narcan ready. 

[ztejas 43411]

Plus it's not like we aren't kicking the shit out of teams. All of the other undefeateds right now save Washington have a game they've played that's a worse result than anything Texas has done.

[LTtxfan 49141]

For your entertainment...

Why Texas Football Will Beat Kansas Football In Week 5 - Texas vs Kansas Preview

Ruffino and Joe Show

[JBJ 3654]

ESPN's FPI is ass, so anything based on it is also ass.

[Zeus 6012]

THEY ARE TERRIBLE AND WE SHOULD BEAT THEM CONVINCINGLY 

KANSAS IS A FUCKING BASKETBALL SCHOOL

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Plus it's not like we aren't kicking the shit out of teams. All of the other undefeateds right now save Washington have a game they've played that's a worse result than anything Texas has done.

Yep jawja looked like dogshit and got Rattler'ered that first half against SC

[Fud 9551]

36 minutes ago, JBJ said:

ESPN's FPI is ass, so anything based on it is also ass.

Georgia and Meat Chicken sleep walking through their easy early season schedules, OU needlessly running up the score against a couple of shit teams, and Texas underperforming against two G5s has made the models wonky at this point. I imagine there's a larger than normal difference between sharp/book power rankings and those from public models that can't/don't make bespoke adjustments 

[Burt Macklin 19019]

38 minutes ago, JBJ said:

ESPN's FPI is ass, so anything based on it is also ass.

This. It’s insane to me how many people keep throwing out FPI and ESPN efficiency stats as if they mean anything. Especially when metrics like FEI and S&P+ exist. 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10226]

I think people just mis-use ESPN FPI, it actually isn't bad. It's a forward looking success index that is heavily influenced by remaining schedule.

It's not a "let's order the teams by who we think is best" index.

[Fud 9551]

10 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

This. It’s insane to me how many people keep throwing out FPI and ESPN efficiency stats as if they mean anything. Especially when metrics like FEI and S&P+ exist. 

I don't view SP+ or FEI as meaningfully better than FPI. They all back-test similarly ATS. Some in the market actually view FPI as the best of the bunch 

The efficiency metrics are more useful than SP+/FEI/FPI for looking to see how well teams have actually played this current year, since the others use data from previous seasons along with roster talent (recruiting rankings and transfers), while the the SP+ types are more useful as power rankings for gambling/predicting a score

There might not be any teams that are as dominant as those from most previous seasons, and there might be a large cluster of teams a tier down from that. If that's the case, then it's unlikely that there's a consensus order after four games among the public models that don't adjust from team to team

 

[Hookem2147 21188]

Lol we jumped 98 spots in offensive success rate after 1 game? I guess I'll allow it.

 

[Fud 9551]

9 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I think people just mis-use ESPN FPI, it actually isn't bad. It's a forward looking success index that is heavily influenced by remaining schedule.

It's not a "let's order the teams by who we think is best" index.

No, the FPI column is a power ranking

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

[Rickylovesweed 14262]

Here's how Kansas stacks up:

FEI: #53----#19 in OFEI and #106 in DFEI

F+ (includes FEI and SP+): #46-----#18 OF+ and #94 in DF+

ESPN Efficiency: #46-----#19 in offensive efficiency and #90 in defensive efficiency 

So depending on which metric is used their defense is ranked between 90-106. Kansas has a really bad defense and a good offense. 

 

[JBJ 3654]

5 minutes ago, Fud said:

I don't view SP+ or FEI as meaningfully better than FPI. They all back-test similarly ATS. Some in the market actually view FPI as the best of the bunch 

The efficiency metrics are more useful than SP+/FEI/FPI for looking to see how well teams have actually played this current year, since the others use data from previous seasons along with roster talent (recruiting rankings and transfers), while the the SP+ types are more useful as power rankings for gambling/predicting a score

There might not be any teams that are as dominant as those from most previous seasons, and there might be a large cluster of teams a tier down from that. If that's the case, then it's unlikely that there's a consensus order after four games among the public models that don't adjust from team to team

Preseason ratings make models MORE accurate, not less.  I understand the line of thinking, that ratings are in a sense being leashed to less-than-accurate preseason ratings, so they aren't 100% based on the games played.  However, they are in practice more accurate sooner.   

The purpose of preseason data isn't really to parse between a top 10 or top 5 unit.  It's to have a good idea if the early-season opponents are, for example, in the middle quintile or bottom quintile.  The model is going to evaluate a game quite differently when you are playing SMU vs UTEP Week 1 and we pretty accurately know who is going to be middling and who is complete ass going into the season.

[Fud 9551]

1 minute ago, JBJ said:

Preseason ratings make models MORE accurate, not less.  I understand the line of thinking, that ratings are in a sense being leashed to less-than-accurate preseason ratings, so they aren't 100% based on the games played.  However, they are in practice more accurate sooner.   

The purpose of preseason data isn't really to parse between a top 10 or top 5 unit.  It's to have a good idea if the early-season opponents are, for example, in the middle quintile or bottom quintile.  The model is going to evaluate a game quite differently when you are playing SMU vs UTEP Week 1 and we pretty accurately know who is going to be middling and who is complete ass going into the season.

I never said they didn't. I was pointing out that both the predictive models and the efficiency metrics are useful, but have different uses 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10226]

49 minutes ago, Fud said:

No, the FPI column is a power ranking

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

yes and no

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/122612/an-inside-look-at-college-fpi

FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

[Fud 9551]

2 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

yes and no

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/122612/an-inside-look-at-college-fpi

FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Yes and yes

[Rhinotx 499]

I watched the Kansas - BYU highlights and if that is any indication its going to be a long day for Kansas. BYU’s skill players are slow and D-line was ineffective. I think we are currently on a whole different level we just need to minimize mistakes and play to our level not theirs.

[Hard Times 302]

1 hour ago, Fud said:

No, the FPI column is a power ranking

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Rapelor higher than Whyoming?? Ain't buying that one.

[tejas60 3532]

[BERT 4358]

17 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Style points matter. There’s a real possibility of 5 undefeated teams happening and not destroying who we should be destroying could leave us on the outside looking in.   We got fucked on the last time we faced an all things being equal scenario but one team was hanging 60 on everyone even though we belonged. 

Fair enough, but this isn't the BCS era

[dcar00 14144]

15 hours ago, ztejas said:

Certainly not in my lifetime and I've been alive for the entirety of the B12. 

In 08 everyone had a loss I believe (I know us and OU did - think FLA did as well)

I can't think of a year where more than 3 P5 teams finished unbeaten, and 2004 is the only year off the top of my head where that was true. 

In 2009 you had TCU, Cincy and Boise State all unbeaten to end the year joining Texas and Bama - but those were obviously all G5 teams. 

2018 we had Bama, Clemson, ND all finish unbeaten.

2019 we had Clemson, tOSU and LSU unbeaten.

I went back a few ap/coaches poll years and there was nothing close to 5.

 

Long story short there is a 0% chance that a 13-0 Texas team is left out of the CFP. It's fairly unlikely we'd not be the 1 seed. 

It's extremely unlikely a 12-1 Texas team gets left out. 

The great Nick Saban has exactly 1 more undefeated team than FUPM.  Going undefeated is fucking hard in P5.

[Wulaw Horn 19063]

On 9/25/2023 at 11:36 PM, Sgt Hulk said:

Style points matter. There’s a real possibility of 5 undefeated teams happening and not destroying who we should be destroying could leave us on the outside looking in.   We got fucked on the last time we faced an all things being equal scenario but one team was hanging 60 on everyone even though we belonged. 

Dude. There will not be 5 undefeated P5 teams. That nonsense is talked about every year around this time and we are lucky if there is even 2.
you should be talking about style points so that a 12-1 texas gets in over a 12-1 FSU or Pac 12 champ with that record. 
 

[Wulaw Horn 19063]

On 9/26/2023 at 4:22 AM, cmontexas said:

It is stupid, and we are better than OU. Having said that, I'm starting to buy this OU team at least as much as they should be ranked above the 1 loss SEC teams. They didnt blow out Cincinnati but they were never in any danger of losing that game either; Cincinnati is a real team with athletes. They feel good about their defense, and it looks like Venables can coach. Clemson has not been the same without him.

We should beat them 8 or 9 times out of 10. We're going to have to beat them 2 out of 2.

OU is dogshit.  They might stumblebumfuck their way to an 11-2 record where they get their heads caved in by us twice but that’s just because this conference sucks dick this year and they compound that by missing out on most of the teams that aren’t utter trash. 

[lilMAC25 3788]

55 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Dude. There will not be 5 undefeated P5 teams. That nonsense is talked about every year around this time and we are lucky if there is even 2.
you should be talking about style points so that a 12-1 texas gets in over a 12-1 FSU or Pac 12 champ with that record. 
 

I want more blowout wins to get our Backups in the game so they get game time snaps. 
 

I much prefer that guys like Maalik or Archie have a game’s worth of experience if Quinn were to be injured and miss a game.

[Frank Drebin 5654]

3 minutes ago, lilMAC25 said:

I want more blowout wins to get our Backups in the game so they get game time snaps. 
 

I much prefer that guys like Maalik or Archie have a game’s worth of experience if Quinn were to be injured and miss a game.

For that to happen with this team or normal top 5 type teams, you really need a couple absolute patsies nonconference.  Or a team like Texas 2005 where most games were over at half.

[CashMcCoy 3199]

5 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

For that to happen with this team or normal top 5 type teams, you really need a couple absolute patsies nonconference.  Or a team like Texas 2005 where most games were over at half.

If it happens, I think the Houston game has the best chance to be Arch’s debut.

[Frank Drebin 5654]

1 minute ago, CashMcCoy said:

If it happens, I think the Houston game has the best chance to be Arch’s debut.

Forgot about that.  Could happen.  Especially if we get a special teams or defensive score.

I think they probably would let Murphy get the most action.

[WinningIsHard 4024]

3 minutes ago, lilMAC25 said:

I want more blowout wins to get our Backups in the game so they get game time snaps. 
 

I much prefer that guys like Maalik or Archie have a game’s worth of experience if Quinn were to be injured and miss a game.

I understand the sentiment of getting game reps, but I don't think you can simulate the other team's number 1's trying to rip your head off and embarrass you. In the middle of a tough battle with kansas state or blOwU if Malik has to come in it won't matter that he got to throw passes against rapelor or kansas's second string. That's just my opinion. 

[WinningIsHard 4024]

8 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

For that to happen with this team or normal top 5 type teams, you really need a couple absolute patsies nonconference.  Or a team like Texas 2005 where most games were over at half.

Vince's back up that year attempted 11 passes. 

[Frank Drebin 5654]

3 minutes ago, WinningIsHard said:

Vince's back up that year attempted 11 passes. 

Yeah, that was Mack being a wimp.  Nordgren should have been allowed to run the regular offense and pass with the backups.  It is coaching malpractice not to run the regular offense and defense in blowouts.  Just use backups once the game is out of hand in the second half.  It is not running up the score when you're using backups.  Particularly when you are Texas and do not schedule FCS opponents.

[NoName 16349]

 

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

Wasn't Daniel's playing last year? That didn't seem to be too much of a problem.

Not sure I see a big concern here if nothing else has changed.

I guess he was coming back off of an injury, but I thought he had been back for awhile before playing Texas last year.

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

4 hours ago, WinningIsHard said:

Vince's back up that year attempted 11 passes. 

Which is why the point should be for the backups to run the real offense at full throttle, not run a virtual victory formation for a quarter or more. 

[mvlonghorns 285]

3 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

Wasn't Daniel's playing last year? That didn't seem to be too much of a problem.

Not sure I see a big concern here if nothing else has changed.

I guess he was coming back off of an injury, but I thought he had been back for awhile before playing Texas last year.

We were his first game back from injury after missing a month. They couldn't do anything on offense until the second half when we had already pulled our starters and the game was long over.

[The Ace of Aces 5175]

8 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

Wasn't Daniel's playing last year? That didn't seem to be too much of a problem.

Not sure I see a big concern here if nothing else has changed.

I guess he was coming back off of an injury, but I thought he had been back for awhile before playing Texas last year.

He did. His line was:

17/26 for 230 yards (8.8 yards per pass) 2 TDs, 1 INT

Most all that was after our 2nd and even 3rd team guys were in. 

Edited September 27, 2023 by The Ace of Aces

[Hagbard Celine 10848]

like everyone else i want to see maalik and arch with the 1st team full-throttle

i'm feeling like sark isn't fucking with anything at all for the next 10 days

[Js1 85258]

8 minutes ago, mvlonghorns said:

We were his first game back from injury after missing a month. They couldn't do anything on offense until the second half when we had already pulled our starters and the game was long over.

Yeah, because their defense couldn't stop a cold.  And it sucks yet again, so good luck. 

[immamac 42832]