Texas opens as an 18 point favorite v Kansas

[TexasMan 10786]

 

 

Did NOT see that coming. Waiting for Circa's tweet to come out. Have also heard draft kings line is 17.5 

[jTower 225]

OOF 

USC -21 at Colo

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Huge scary number

[SimkinsMan 4349]

Notre Dame laying just 2 at Duke is interesting. 

[GhostOfTomJoad 9307]

5 points more than the opening line at Baylor?

[GabrielsHorn 2142]

Just now, GhostOfTomJoad said:

5 points more than the opening line at Baylor?

Definitely a difference in playing at home versus on the road. 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

That plus they may expect a ton of action on the Texas side after looking good yesterday, vs how they looked against Wy before heading off on a road game. 

[Braff Zacklin 13415]

In the words of a professional horse fluffer, 18 seems like a lot.

[thunderlounge 7757]

Quote

Ore St -2½ Utah

[USNALonghorn 5024]

Scares ya to death…

[Js1 85104]

18 seems high. I could see 10-12 maybe. 

[Earl Haffler 584]

2 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

Scares ya to death…

I feel sorry for the kids.

[TexasMan 10786]

16 at Circa. Over/under 66.5. The expect a shootout.

 

 

[Michael Knight 12891]

Oh yeah well maybe we beat them by 18 and a half

[B00M 6280]

15 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

I feel sorry for the kids.

THE KIDS ARE TOUGH!!! BRING ME LOU HOLTZ 

[WBT 20419]

Seems about right.  I was thinking 17.

[po elvis 2070]

45-27. 41-23. 38-20. sounds right

[billfromlaketravis 11359]

I kind of expect a long run and throw from Daniels. Our defense won’t go unscathed. 
 

34-28 feels about right. Garbage time time touchdown from Kansas to make it look closer than it really was. 

[Hagbard Celine 10756]

their strength is offense

we should run run run

new time rules = lower scores

i would take the under at 66 but i don't bet

but that seems high

also draftkings was guessing -23 at 9am

texas money knows better at -18

fuckery potential alone is worth -13

[Davis Lane 5553]

18 points?!?

But the Big 12 is a juggernaut of talent rich schools.

That's why other than Texas and OU, Kansas is the only Big 12 school currently ranked.

[JBJ 3649]

The new time rules are only amounting to 4 less snaps a game.  Don't place a bet thinking there will be 2-3 fewer drives.

Edited September 24, 2023 by JBJ

[LTtxfan 48966]

"Texas opens as an 18 point favorite v Kansas"

 

[MirrOlure 14625]

My impulse to put my entire 401k, equity in my house, my 1994 Land Cruiser and my entire cash and equity savings on Georgia -14 at Auburn is exactly why I don’t bet.

[gmr548 16503]

Ore St -2½ Utah

I buy it with Utah’s QB situation.

[redswingline 1057]

We'll win by 18-21 pts.

[Hagbard Celine 10756]

33 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

My impulse to put my entire 401k, equity in my house, my 1994 Land Cruiser and my entire cash and equity savings on Georgia -14 at Auburn is exactly why I don’t bet.

that's a typo

it has to be -41

[TexasGolf 4856]

47 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

My impulse to put my entire 401k, equity in my house, my 1994 Land Cruiser and my entire cash and equity savings on Georgia -14 at Auburn is exactly why I don’t bet.

Leave out the cruiser…. Worst case scenario you can sleep in there 

[RandomIdoit 655]

[TexasMan 10786]

Some trends via Odds Shark:

[markstanco 12505]

LSU and Georgia will cover, UK will not.

[TornACL 7675]

4 hours ago, SimkinsMan said:

Notre Dame laying just 2 at Duke is interesting. 

Great spot for Duke catching ND at home after that big game against Ohio State.

[TornACL 7675]

1 hour ago, MirrOlure said:

My impulse to put my entire 401k, equity in my house, my 1994 Land Cruiser and my entire cash and equity savings on Georgia -14 at Auburn is exactly why I don’t bet.

That line stinks to high heaven. Auburn's OL and QBs are absolute trash.

[Duane Moore 5236]

21 minutes ago, TornACL said:

That line stinks to high heaven. Auburn's OL and QBs are absolute trash.

Every week in the SEC is a meat grinder, sips have no idea what they’re getting into. /ag

[skilesare 71]

2 hours ago, JBJ said:

The new time rules are only amounting to 4 less snaps a game.  Don't place a bet thinking there will be 2-3 fewer drives.

It feels like more. One thing I know is that I haven't seen a single onside kick yet and we're headed to week five. I don't know why the new clock rolls would affect on sidekicks, but it seems like they are. Anybody know where to look up the stats? It'll be really interesting to look at the year over year change.

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

1 hour ago, MirrOlure said:

My impulse to put my entire 401k, equity in my house, my 1994 Land Cruiser and my entire cash and equity savings on Georgia -14 at Auburn is exactly why I don’t bet.

Auburn's entire secondary is injured too. I'm definitely throwing some money on that game even though Georgia hasn't looked great. 

Feels like the line should be double that. 

[Rimbo 25778]

it's been a pretty satisfying season so far

like a choice ribeye from the grocery store you got on sale

it's not perfect, but it's still a delicious fuckin' ribeye

[AUS-97HORN 11673]

I think this is another over reaction after the under reaction from us not winning by 30 against WY but doing so against Baylor.  

I would love for us to win by 3 TDs, but I think Kansas has a decent defense. 

if the line was 11.5, I still think Kansas would cover.  I think Texas wins by somewhere from 7 through 11

[runthebone 7932]

Vegas hasn't read the surly thread, or it would be a pick 'em.

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

5 minutes ago, runthebone said:

Vegas hasn't read the surly thread, or it would be a pick 'em.

Only because Texas is at home. 

[Horn80 6075]

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

it's been a pretty satisfying season so far

like a choice ribeye from the grocery store you got on sale

it's not perfect, but it's still a delicious fuckin' ribeye

My man.

[Ignatius 4001]

3 hours ago, JBJ said:

The new time rules are only amounting to 4 less snaps a game.  Don't place a bet thinking there will be 2-3 fewer drives.

Fewer

[Rockethorn1978 6061]

[Rimbo 25778]

2 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

[JBJ 3649]

1 hour ago, skilesare said:

It feels like more. One thing I know is that I haven't seen a single onside kick yet and we're headed to week five. I don't know why the new clock rolls would affect on sidekicks, but it seems like they are. Anybody know where to look up the stats? It'll be really interesting to look at the year over year change.

Onside kicks happen in close games, which don't happen often in preseason.

• Through Week 3 in 2023, games involving at least one FBS team are averaging 176.20 plays. Through Week 3 in 2022, the same average was 182.32 plays per game.

I heard it was at 4 snaps after this week, but haven't seen it as an official stat published yet.

The math is: Every first down trims about 5 seconds off the clock (you are really only saving the time that it takes to set the chains).  The average game has 34 first downs outside of the 2-minutes drills.  So 5*36 = 180 seconds lost.  180 seconds / 20 secs per play (historical avg) = theoretically 9 plays.   I'm going to completely guess (because there's no stat for this) that around 25% of first downs are out of bounds, so more like 6-7 plays lost.

I think we still haven't seen the new meta for how fast or slow coaches will go at 8 minutes vs 6 minutes vs 4 minutes.

The average drive is 7.5 plays.

Edited September 25, 2023 by JBJ

[Blotto 23432]

Most updated power ratings have us 20-22 pts better than the KU. Throw in the standard 3 pts for home field and there ya go. They don't just post numbers for shits and giggles, 18-19 is what the computers say the line should be. 

Those beers were doing work earlier. The 3 points should be added to the spread, not taken away

Edited September 25, 2023 by Blotto

[chainsaw 9838]

They know this ain't basketball right?

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

4 hours ago, MirrOlure said:

My impulse to put my entire 401k, equity in my house, my 1994 Land Cruiser and my entire cash and equity savings on Georgia -14 at Auburn is exactly why I don’t bet.

I’m with you- that line is dumb.

 

18 seems right to me. Fuck Kansas

[skilesare 71]

19 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Onside kicks happen in close games, which don't happen often in preseason.

This is a good point....still would be a fun graph to see over the course of this year.

[chemHORN 1239]

Big 12 refs are worth at least 14 points for whoever Texas is playing against

[TexasMan 10786]

I will say though, the last times in my memory where we were 18 point favroties at home: last year v Iowa State when we were lucky to get out with a win, and the Maryland game..