Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[bolverk 29660]

After seeing this story, I figured it was time to start prepping for the primaries and general election.

Anti-abortion rights Democrat, Henry Cuellar, whose Laredo home was raided by the FBI last year has picked up a Republican challenger for his South Texas district, but with a twist. It's his former press secretary and district director, Jose Sanz.

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/09/27/henry-cuellar-jose-sanz-28th-district/

[Ghost of LL 15531]

So what are we doing about Alabama, since the Legislature refuses to pass a legal map?

[Js1 85310]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

So what are we doing about Alabama, since the Legislature refuses to pass a legal map?

Special Master will draw 3 maps and the courts will pick one. Should be done in a couple weeks I believe. Alabama GOP will whine and try to get them shot down and SCOTUS will slap that down yet again 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Js1

[Gengs1 2583]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So what are we doing about Alabama, since the Legislature refuses to pass a legal map?

Run the clock out and say it’s too late to implement it now and let’s do it in 26. Standard playbook 

[Js1 85310]

2 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

Run the clock out and say it’s too late to implement it now and let’s do it in 26. Standard playbook 

Except that’s not what is happening? The court will pick a map from the 3 that the Special Master drew in a couple of weeks. Alabama will challenge and appeal it to SCOTUS. They’ll slap it down. 

[bolverk 29660]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Except that’s not what is happening? The court will pick a map from the 3 that the Special Master drew in a couple of weeks. Alabama will challenge and appeal it to SCOTUS. They’ll slap it down. 

Weren't there also similar cases in TX, LA, and FL? Would this AL decision affect other states?

[Js1 85310]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Weren't there also similar cases in TX, LA, and FL? Would this AL decision affect other states?

That’s the hope that this will affect maps in FL, LA, SC and maybe Texas. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Hoping for better maps in New York and Wisconsin as well to offset GOP fuck jobs in North Carolina and Florida.

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Hoping for better maps in New York and Wisconsin as well to offset GOP fuck jobs in North Carolina and Florida.

Flipping back those three NY seats would eat up a third of the current GOP advantage. I can't imagine the GOP reps in Biden districts are going to fare well after the shit show that has been the 118th congress. 

[Js1 85310]

First major domino

 

[henrygandorf 29189]

more info. 

[tx 3 putt 76905]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

First major domino

 

now do North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin 

[Js1 85310]

Just now, tx 3 putt said:

now do North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin 

Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina 

[henrygandorf 29189]

you can’t stop what’s coming. 

[South Austin 52463]

18 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

now do North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin 

 

18 hours ago, Js1 said:

Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina 

[Js1 85310]

Billionaire Rick Caruso who unsuccessfully ran for LA Mayor is committing a ton of money to defeating as many incumbent R congresspersons as possible in California in 2024. Full Bloomberg  

Edited October 6, 2023 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

22 hours ago, Js1 said:

Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina 

Getting 1 seat back in Florida and Louisiana should be slam dunks based off what’s happened so far?
 

I figured South Carolina, Texas, and Georgia were bigger longshots.

[Js1 85310]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

Getting 1 seat back in Florida and Louisiana should be slam dunks based off what’s happened so far?
 

I figured South Carolina, Texas, and Georgia were bigger longshots.

The case against FL, LA, SC and AL were that they diluted the african american vote.  It'll be interesting where they go with the Texas case, if they file any, where they diluted Hispanic votes in the DFW and Houston. 

[High Plains Drifter 11035]

8 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

you can’t stop what’s coming. 

 

government shutdown until the D's retake the house?

 

[henrygandorf 29189]

24 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

government shutdown until the D's retake the house?

hakeem like...

[Js1 85310]

Court upholds the New Mexico map - it’s not egregiously gerrymandered enough to be illegal, even though it favors Democrats. Was a GOP judge too

[Js1 85310]

Another map is coming up for challenges:

Wisconsin Supreme Court DID vote to hear the case on the legality of the current maps, 4-3

Justice Protasiewicz declines to recuse herself, cites Republican Party of Minnesota v. White and Justice Scalia that judicial candidates have a First Amendment right to have stated views on disputed legal and political issues when running for office. 

Quote

“As Justice Alito has emphasized: ‘When there is no sound reason for a Justice to recuse, the Justice has a duty to sit,’” Protasiewicz wrote in orders published Friday.

Wisconsin Legislature will likely not impeach her - former Republican justice David Prosser, who is advising the Wisconsin Speaker on the legality of impeachmnet:

Quote

In his email to Vos, Prosser said he did not think Protasiewicz had met the standard for impeachment, which is reserved for “corrupt conduct in office, or for crimes and misdemeanors.”

She has not committed a crime or corrupt conduct, Prosser said.

“In my view, ‘corrupt conduct’ is not a term that is open to a mere political grievance,” Prosser wrote. “If that were the case, legislative bodies could be trading questionable impeachments with considerable frequency.”

Prosser cautioned that using impeachment to delay or affect the outcome of any single case “will be viewed as unreasonable partisan politics.”

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

8 hours ago, Js1 said:

Another map is coming up for challenges:

Wisconsin Supreme Court DID vote to hear the case on the legality of the current maps, 4-3

Justice Protasiewicz declines to recuse herself, cites Republican Party of Minnesota v. White and Justice Scalia that judicial candidates have a First Amendment right to have stated views on disputed legal and political issues when running for office. 

Wisconsin Legislature will likely not impeach her - former Republican justice David Prosser, who is advising the Wisconsin Speaker on the legality of impeachmnet:

 

Wisconsin republicans would be idiots to impeach her.  She just won by 10 points. Messing with Protasiewicz would probably end any chances they have of winning Wisconsin in 2024. People would be pissed and rightfully so. Wisconsin Republicans are just going to have to accept that they can no longer win 70% of the seats in the state house while winning only 45% of the statewide vote.

[Js1 85310]

More map news I haven't kept up with:

South Carolina

SCOTUS oral arguments begin today in Alexander v. SC, challenging the SC maps.  

Louisiana

The 5th Circuit halted the legal challenge (Ardoin v. Robinson, which is NOT Silas Ardoin vs. Bijan Robinson) to the Louisiana map on September 28.  Voters filed an emergency application with SCOTUS on September 29 to proceed with the challenge.  Alito will hear the request and decide whether to present it to the full court. As a reminder, SCOTUS already ruled that the Louisiana maps required a second majority-minority district be drawn. 

As we saw with Alabama, hard to see why SCOTUS would allow Louisiana to ignore their initial ruling.  They slapped Alabama in the face for defying their initial ruling in Milligan. 

Florida

Back in September, a judge ruled the Florida map violated the FL constitution's right to fair access for minority voters by dismantling Rep. Al Lawson's district.  Of course, DeSantis and Florida GOP will take this all the way to the FL Supreme Court, but this one could also end up at SCOTUS.

Ideally, what happens is they compromise and reinstate Lawson's district and drop all other challenges to the 2022 map that resulted in 4 new GOP seats. 

Quote

Florida’s Fair Districts provision states that congressional districts cannot be drawn in a way that would “diminish” minority voters ability to elect someone of their choice. The map pushed by DeSantis, however, blew apart a district that linked Black neighborhoods and towns stretching from just west of Tallahassee to Jacksonville. The governor justified his map by asserting that Lawson’s old district was an unconstitutional race-based gerrymandering — an argument that could be undercut by recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions on redistricting in other states.

 

[Js1 85310]

If we are counting what could potentially happen:

• Alabama - 1 new Dem seat confirmed with the new map
• Louisiana - potentially 1 new Dem seat
• South Carolina - potentially 1 new Dem seat
• Florida - potentially 1 new Dem seat
• Wisconsin - potentially 1 new Dem seat and 1 new purple seat
• NC - potentially 3-4 new GOP seats depending on how aggressive they go, keeping in mind Elias and team will be ready to pounce if they try to violate any VRA sections and dismantle majority-minority districts, like Alabama
• Ohio - decided not to mess with their maps
• NY - this is still unclear if anything can actually happen to redraw the map, but would potentially wipe out the NC map

And as we discussed, besides those potentially 5 new Dem seats to help Dems take back the majority, they have legit flip opportunities in 19 districts, which includes:

• 2 in Arizona, where Trump lost in 2020 and there's a very competitive Senate race (1.5 and 0.1 points in Biden's favor) in a state becoming bluer by the day
• 5 California seats, 3 of which were double-digit Biden districts and one was 7 points
• 6 New York seats, of which 5 were 4.5 points or higher for Biden, including 2 double digit seats
• 1 Oregon seat that Biden won by almost 9 points
• 1 Virginia seat that Biden won by almost 2 points
• 1 Pennsylvania seat that Biden won by almost 5 points
• 1 Nebraska seat that Biden won by 6 points
• 1 NJ seat that Biden won by 4 points

Reps will target the 5 Dems who sit in Trump seats:

• Mary Peltola (lol good luck, they love her in Alaska)
• Jared Golden, who can probably hold that seat as long as he wants it 
• Marcy Kaptur (was only a 2.9 Trump seat that she won by 13 points)
• Matt Cartwright (was only a 2.9 Trump seat that he won by 2.4)
• Marie Gulsenkamp Perez, where the GOP is yet again going to nominate the dumbass Trumper she beat, as the moderate Republican he beat in the primary has bowed out to run for a different office

Current house is 221 R, 212 D and 2 vacancies that are split (RI-01, which is D+12 and UT-02, which is D+11), so call it 222, 213.  Dems need to flip 5 to take the majority.

[The Dog 44020]

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

South Carolina

SCOTUS oral arguments begin today in Alexander v. SC, challenging the SC maps.

iirc this is about Nancy Mace's district. if the Supreme Court orders a new map then she is toast unless she moves. likely explains her hard MAGA turn as she'll probably need to run against another GOP incumbent in another district.

[Js1 85310]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

iirc this is about Nancy Mace's district. if the Supreme Court orders a new map then she is toast unless she moves. likely explains her hard MAGA turn as she'll probably need to run against another GOP incumbent in another district.

Correct.  They moved 2/3 of black voters out of SC-01 and into Clyburn's district. 

Quote

In Oct. 2021, Taiwan Scott, a Black voter who lives in Congressional District 1, and the South Carolina State Conference of the NAACP went to court to challenge three of the new districts. They argued that the new districts violated the Constitution because they were the product of racial gerrymandering. The districts were also unconstitutional, the challengers added, because they were drawn with an intent to discriminate based on race.

Defending the plan, Republican lawmakers and state election officials contended that the changes to District 1 were based on partisanship, rather than race. In fact, they maintained, mapmakers relied on election data to draw the maps, without looking at the racial breakdown of residents.

As a challenge to the constitutionality of a congressional map, the case went to a three-judge district court, which held an eight-day trial in the fall of 2022. In January of this year, the lower court held that part of District 1 is a racial gerrymander and blocked the state from using the map for District 1.

The court ruled that race was the overriding factor in the design of District 1. It rejected the mapmaker’s claim that he had not considered race at all when he drew District 1. The court observed that Republicans had believed that they needed to keep the Black voting-age population in the district at 17% to guarantee a Republican victory. It cannot be a coincidence, the court stressed, that despite the large number of people who were moved into and out of District 1, the district maintained a Black voting-age population of 17%.

“State legislators,” the court explained, “are free to consider a broad array of factors in the design of a legislative district, including partisanship, but they may not use race as a predominant factor and may not use partisanship as a proxy for race.” Because the state had not shown that it had a compelling reason to use race in drawing District 1, the court concluded, the map cannot stand.

The three-judge district court initially ordered the state to draw a new map by the end of March 2023. But after the state appealed to the Supreme Court, the lower court put that order on hold until after the Supreme Court acts.

 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Mary Peltola (lol good luck, they love her in Alaska)

I gave her money a couple of times. She appears to be in possession of a clue.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[The Dog 44020]

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

wasn't he the deciding vote on the Alabama case?

[Js1 85310]

27 minutes ago, The Dog said:

wasn't he the deciding vote on the Alabama case?

No. He dissented in Milligan. Was the liberals + Roberts and Kav

[The Dog 44020]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No. He dissented in Milligan. Was the liberals + Roberts and Kav

Thanks - couldn't remember which of the Trump/Mitch appointees was the surprise vote.

Can't help but wonder if Alabama's actions pissed them off.

[Voldemort86 2259]

7 hours ago, The Dog said:

Thanks - couldn't remember which of the Trump/Mitch appointees was the surprise vote.

Can't help but wonder if Alabama's actions pissed them off.

It should have. Alabama brazenly defied the courts and acted arrogant while redrawing their shitty maps.  They only gave the dems 40% and tried to fool everyone into thinking they’re complying while the Alabama governor even stated “ nobody knows Alabama better than our legislature and they need to be the ones drawing the maps for Alabamians”.

 

give me a fucking break.

[Voldemort86 2259]

9 hours ago, Js1 said:

If we are counting what could potentially happen:

• Alabama - 1 new Dem seat confirmed with the new map
• Louisiana - potentially 1 new Dem seat
• South Carolina - potentially 1 new Dem seat
• Florida - potentially 1 new Dem seat
• Wisconsin - potentially 1 new Dem seat and 1 new purple seat
• NC - potentially 3-4 new GOP seats depending on how aggressive they go, keeping in mind Elias and team will be ready to pounce if they try to violate any VRA sections and dismantle majority-minority districts, like Alabama
• Ohio - decided not to mess with their maps
• NY - this is still unclear if anything can actually happen to redraw the map, but would potentially wipe out the NC map

And as we discussed, besides those potentially 5 new Dem seats to help Dems take back the majority, they have legit flip opportunities in 19 districts, which includes:

• 2 in Arizona, where Trump lost in 2020 and there's a very competitive Senate race (1.5 and 0.1 points in Biden's favor) in a state becoming bluer by the day
• 5 California seats, 3 of which were double-digit Biden districts and one was 7 points
• 6 New York seats, of which 5 were 4.5 points or higher for Biden, including 2 double digit seats
• 1 Oregon seat that Biden won by almost 9 points
• 1 Virginia seat that Biden won by almost 2 points
• 1 Pennsylvania seat that Biden won by almost 5 points
• 1 Nebraska seat that Biden won by 6 points
• 1 NJ seat that Biden won by 4 points

Reps will target the 5 Dems who sit in Trump seats:

• Mary Peltola (lol good luck, they love her in Alaska)
• Jared Golden, who can probably hold that seat as long as he wants it 
• Marcy Kaptur (was only a 2.9 Trump seat that she won by 13 points)
• Matt Cartwright (was only a 2.9 Trump seat that he won by 2.4)
• Marie Gulsenkamp Perez, where the GOP is yet again going to nominate the dumbass Trumper she beat, as the moderate Republican he beat in the primary has bowed out to run for a different office

Current house is 221 R, 212 D and 2 vacancies that are split (RI-01, which is D+12 and UT-02, which is D+11), so call it 222, 213.  Dems need to flip 5 to take the majority.

Thanks for this excellent summary. 
 

my personal opinion is that Wisconsin and Louisiana are both looking very promising. South Carolina is still uncertain. As for Florida,  Desantis is god there and he seems to be unbeatable within state lines so I doubt they give the dems anything. 
 

I wish the dems could find someone to try and rebuild the Florida Democratic Party. 

[bolverk 29660]

12 hours ago, Js1 said:

More map news I haven't kept up with:

South Carolina

SCOTUS oral arguments begin today in Alexander v. SC, challenging the SC maps.  

Louisiana

The 5th Circuit halted the legal challenge (Ardoin v. Robinson, which is NOT Silas Ardoin vs. Bijan Robinson) to the Louisiana map on September 28.  Voters filed an emergency application with SCOTUS on September 29 to proceed with the challenge.  Alito will hear the request and decide whether to present it to the full court. As a reminder, SCOTUS already ruled that the Louisiana maps required a second majority-minority district be drawn. 

As we saw with Alabama, hard to see why SCOTUS would allow Louisiana to ignore their initial ruling.  They slapped Alabama in the face for defying their initial ruling in Milligan. 

Florida

Back in September, a judge ruled the Florida map violated the FL constitution's right to fair access for minority voters by dismantling Rep. Al Lawson's district.  Of course, DeSantis and Florida GOP will take this all the way to the FL Supreme Court, but this one could also end up at SCOTUS.

Ideally, what happens is they compromise and reinstate Lawson's district and drop all other challenges to the 2022 map that resulted in 4 new GOP seats. 

 

Is there not also a case in Texas? Didn't the last Census show something like 90-95% of the state's population growth be solely due to Hispanics, and they took one Hispanic majority district away? I might be misremembering the details, but I don't think it's too far off.

[The Dog 44020]

 

[Js1 85310]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

They also ran the risk of waiting too long to get it done. If they impeached and then removed here after December 1, the Evers’ appointee would sit on the Court until 2031. 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Js1

[cactusflinthead 27598]

Guess this will do for where to post.

Dave is trying to make work. 

"Look, I know the data doesn't work. I know they have been getting stomped, BUT I NEED A JOB!"

[Js1 85310]

A younger, more diverse electorate is good for Trump? 😂😂😂

I want what Dave is smoking 

[Js1 85310]

Looks like NC dropped 2 potential maps - 11-3 R or 10-3-1 R.  It is currently 7-7 so looking at 3 or 4 potential R pickups in the short-term. 

Both maps are problematic as they relate to Milligan - the 11-3 map packs too many AA voters (like Alabama did) and the 10-3-1 map doesn't create a minority district, as they claim. 

Sucks we likely lose Jeff Jackson, but he would be a frontrunner for the 2026 Senate race

From Wasserman: 

Quote

Based on my initial look at the two NC GOP congressional plans, one is a 11R-3D plan (+4R, -4D) that merges Davis & Foushee and eliminates Manning, Jackson and Nickel.

The other is a 10D-3R-1C that makes Davis's #NC01 competitive and eliminates Manning, Jackson and Nickel.

 

[Biff Tannen 45673]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Both maps are problematic as they relate to Milligan - the 11-3 map packs too many AA voters (like Alabama did) and the 10-3-1 map doesn't create a minority district, as they claim. 

So they should get struck down again?

Is there a way to make these people follow the rules or do they just get to keep throwing out nonsense maps?

[Js1 85310]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Is there a way to make these people follow the rules

Vote them out. Unfortunately, NC FAFO’d in November of last year

[Biff Tannen 45673]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Vote them out

That seems to be exactly the problem that these maps create.

[Js1 85310]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

That seems to be exactly the problem that these maps create.

Unfortunately, NC had their opportunity to keep their Dem majority on the SCONC.  They decided to flip the court.  So they kind of are getting what they deserve.

Have no fear, regardless of which map, Marc Elias is on top of it. They'll both get sued and end up at SCOTUS

[The Dog 44020]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Have no fear, regardless of which map, Marc Elias is on top of it. They'll both get sued and end up at SCOTUS

yup. Wasserman said this is 100% guaranteed to be sued.

[Js1 85310]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

yup. Wasserman said this is 100% guaranteed to be sued.

 

[The Dog 44020]

straight from the horse's mouth:

 

[bolverk 29660]

On 10/11/2023 at 8:30 PM, bolverk said:

Is there not also a case in Texas? Didn't the last Census show something like 90-95% of the state's population growth be solely due to Hispanics, and they took one Hispanic majority district away? I might be misremembering the details, but I don't think it's too far off.

So, again, nothing new on Texas's maps? No suit? No nothing?

[Js1 85310]

8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

So, again, nothing new on Texas's maps? No suit? No nothing?

As of June from Texas tribune:

Where does the Texas redistricting case stand?

The Texas redistricting case remains delayed, with the state working to keep secret many of the private communications lawmakers engaged in while drawing new maps.

The federal three-judge panel considering the case canceled a September 2022 trial a month before it was set to begin after disputes over discovery left both the state and the various plaintiff groups questioning whether they’d have enough time to prepare to make their cases in a federal courtroom in El Paso.

At issue are subpoenas and motions to compel certain documents from legislators and third parties. The state and the plaintiffs are also quarreling over lawmakers’ assertions during depositions of what’s known as legislative privilege, which allows legislators to keep secret their communications on policy along with their “thoughts and mental impressions.”

The Texas Tribune thanks its sponsors. Become one.

Those disputes have been further complicated — and delayed — by legal wrangling over discovery in a separate lawsuit challenging the sweeping voting law, known as Senate Bill 1, that lawmakers passed in 2021. In that case, state legislators withheld certain materials, also citing legislative privilege, and then turned to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals when a district judge largely rejected their privilege claims and ordered them to hand over about 220 documents.

The 5th Circuit’s ruling, allowing lawmakers to keep those documents hidden, didn’t come until last month.

The plaintiffs in the redistricting case now plan to file briefs to determine how much the 5th Circuit’s ruling should affect their discovery. There are still more than 10 separate pending motions related to discovery in the case.

When will the case be decided?

It’s impossible to know at this point. In fact, the litigation over the last round of redistricting is ongoing with the parties still hashing it out over attorney’s fees in the long-winding case.

In the current litigation, it’s unclear how long it will take for the appeals and pending motions over discovery to be dealt with. The three-judge panel has yet to reschedule a trial, which would very likely stretch over several weeks. The court’s decision wouldn’t come for several months after that. And that decision would likely be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

By then, Texas could very well be deep into the second election cycle under challenged maps that could later be found discriminatory.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Js1

[tx 3 putt 76905]

the us 5th is only there to further the Republican Party's agenda and piss all over non white voters every chance they get