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Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

bolverk

By bolverk
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Js1

Js1 85348

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2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Yet I'm still hearing from the media what a huge drag immigration is on Democratic candidates.  Well geez whiz, the Pubs shoot their wad in this race about nothing but immigration and got beat worse.  

Pro-border deal candidate wins. 

Media and pundits: immigration is a losing issue for Dems 

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**gestures broadly at basically every Republican running for office in November**

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Chuckie Finster

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Nice flip for the Dems but I wouldn’t read too much into this. Santos was an embarrassment to anyone in that district so it’s no surprise there was a big rebound.

**gestures broadly at basically every Republican running for office in November**
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BamaATL

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Just for reference, Cook had NY 3 listed as Republican Toss Up leading into today.  It would appear they were between 8 to 10 points wrong.  A margin of error of a couple of points is one thing, 8 to 10 is like losing a hockey game 5-1, not even in the ballpark.  

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17 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

So according to these republicans.

its totally ok to lie about all your credentials, everything on your resume, and everything you’ve ever done in your life. 
 

good to know.

Party before country, guess you missed the memo

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14598

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Again, the Republican candidate underperformed their polling by 5-7 points.  This has been consistent since Dobbs.  Everyone knows abortion is the single driving issue here but no one in the media wants to talk about it.  They just roll with whatever the Republicans are carping about that day:

 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28783

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8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

So according to these republicans.

its totally ok to lie about all your credentials, everything on your resume, and everything you’ve ever done in your life. 
 

good to know.

Fraud is their brand. 

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Js1

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5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 Biden is old though 

Basically it’s boiling down to this:

Poll respondents: I don’t really like Biden at all

Media: aha! So people will be voting GOP/Trump, obviously

voters: uh, no. I said I don’t like Biden, doesn’t mean I’m voting for Trump. I’m voting against Trump/the GOP

Media: *shocked Pikachu face* 

Edited by Js1
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BamaATL

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23 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Again, the Republican candidate underperformed their polling by 5-7 points.  This has been consistent since Dobbs.  Everyone knows abortion is the single driving issue here but no one in the media wants to talk about it.  They just roll with whatever the Republicans are carping about that day:

 

Here's to hoping the Republican's change absolutely nothing about their platform between now and November, cause the fish aren't biting today boys.  

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Js1

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32 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Again, the Republican candidate underperformed their polling by 5-7 points.  This has been consistent since Dobbs.  

If the polls are constantly overrating the GOP by 4-5 points, then Biden is likely winning by 3-4 points nationally and probably just repeating 2020’s results. Not much seems to have changed since 2020, really 

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Bozo_Casanova

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55 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Basically it’s boiling down to this:

Poll respondents: I don’t really like Biden at all

Media: aha! So people will be voting GOP/Trump, obviously

voters: uh, no. I said I don’t like Biden, doesn’t mean I’m voting for Trump. I’m voting against Trump/the GOP

Media: *shocked Pikachu face* 

Precisely this. Look, disapproval for Biden may in fact catch up with the Dems at some point, but it hasn’t yet, and should not be taken as a strong predictor of GOP votes. On the Supremes thread we talked about polling of Gen X, which the media has declared as strongly conservative and Trumps based on Biden’s disapproval rating, but it doesn’t vote that way. That connection gets weaker as the cohort gets younger through to Gen Z.

Gen Zers are as cynical as GenX, except without a memory of good times to be sentimental about. They woke up to the financial crisis and things have gotten consistently worse through their entire memory. They, and in particular the girls have disregard for Democrats that verges on contempt and are furious about the suffering of civilians in Gaza but they view Republicans as existential generational adversaries and I believe their voting will reflect that. 
 

Here’s a typical text exchange with my daughter, from yesterday morning. She’s a junior in college, in the UK.

IMG_0166.jpeg

IMG_0167.jpeg

IMG_0168.jpeg

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Js1

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5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Precisely this. Look, disapproval for Biden may in fact catch up with the Dems at some point, but it hasn’t yet, and should not be taken as a strong predictor of GOP votes. On the Supremes thread we talked about polling of Gen X, which the media has declared as strongly conservative and Trumps based on Biden’s disapproval rating, but it doesn’t vote that way. That connection gets weaker as the cohort gets younger through to Gen Z.

 

Pretty much this.  It would probably catch up to Dems if the GOP wasn't hell-bent on nominating, defending and kowtowing an entire party infrastructure, platform and agenda to a guy under multiple indictments, who is a very obese 78 years old and a wannabe fascist. 

If they had actually opted to nominate someone like Haley, I think Biden would be toast.  But I also don't think Biden would have run again if Trump was not the presumptive nominee.  Biden just fucking hates that dude and what he has done/would do to the U.S.

It's exactly what I said in the Presidential Election thread - re-elect Biden, and then look ahead to 2028.  Just keep Trump out at all costs.  So you don't like Biden? Big fucking whoop-  if you vote for Biden, you'll have a much bigger say in the U.S.' future by getting to pick one of the 800 younger Dems in the bench in 4 years.  If you sit out or vote Trump for some stupid reason, you aren't going to have a say in the future, because there may not ever be a free and fair election in the U.S. after this one.  

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Js1

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Also missed last night - Dems lost an OK House special election by only 5 points last night. It hasn't been contested since 2018, when it was R+26

That's kind of telling

  • Dems flip NY-03 by ~15 points from 2022
  • Dems overperform an OKLAHOMA state house district by 20 points from the last time it was contested in 2018
  • Dems overperform a Pennsylvania suburban house district by 15 points from 2020
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Huckleberry

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Also missed last night - Dems lost an OK House special election by only 5 points last night. It hasn't been contested since 2018, when it was R+26

That's kind of telling

  • Dems flip NY-03 by ~15 points from 2022
  • Dems overperform an OKLAHOMA state house district by 20 points from the last time it was contested in 2018
  • Dems overperform a Pennsylvania suburban house district by 15 points from 2020

I'm not sure the Democrats can take much more bad news. 

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Js1

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Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

you have to keep the yoots engaged though.  they had a 11% spike in voting in 2020 over 2016.  its not that they'll vote trump, they'll just not vote.

From what I’ve read, the Biden campaign has already begun engaging with influencers and social media people to start that. I think abortion is still the play with the young voters. At least the young females. They’ll vote. 

(Come on Taylor, one appearance with Joe in October would pretty much end this)

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Bozo_Casanova

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7 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

you have to keep the yoots engaged though.  they had a 11% spike in voting in 2020 over 2016.  its not that they'll vote trump, they'll just not vote.

They’ll vote. I’m FAR more worried about Arab-Americans, East Africans, and South Asians. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6559

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

If the polls are constantly overrating the GOP by 4-5 points, then Biden is likely winning by 3-4 points nationally and probably just repeating 2020’s results. Not much seems to have changed since 2020, really 

Yeah, but see that narrative doesn't really get eyeballs for the media so they need to position the narrative as Trump is beating Biden and everyone in America thinks Trump is much better than Biden and he will be the winner come November.  Without a juicier story line they have nothing to fill the airwaves for 24 hours a day.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105151

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22 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

She sounds smart. Pics?

Back off.  She's a smart girl, from a decent family (Bozo's wife is good people, at least), and she's a 30 minute train ride away from the boy in uni in Glasgow.  Am I hoping they connect?  Maybe.  Can you imagine the dueling toasts the fathers of the bride and groom would give at the wedding?

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texasdago

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7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m FAR more worried about Arab-Americans

Voting for Trump in this case or even not voting at all would totally be the a classic example of the Panthers Eating Faces Party

 

Game Of Thrones Wow GIF by SoulPancake 

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Back off.  She's a smart girl, from a decent family (Bozo's wife is good people, at least), and she's a 30 minute train ride away from the boy in uni in Glasgow.  Am I hoping they connect?  Maybe.  Can you imagine the dueling toasts the fathers of the bride and groom would give at the wedding?

I know they would each last 2.5 hours at a minimum. Could push Bozo into the four-hour territory if you just mention Austin city zoning laws.

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23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also missed last night - Dems lost an OK House special election by only 5 points last night. It hasn't been contested since 2018, when it was R+26

That's kind of telling

  • Dems flip NY-03 by ~15 points from 2022
  • Dems overperform an OKLAHOMA state house district by 20 points from the last time it was contested in 2018
  • Dems overperform a Pennsylvania suburban house district by 15 points from 2020

Then how the fuck did Abbott win this damn state by 10 points following Dobbs?!

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dieucla98

dieucla98 2942

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2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Then how the fuck did Abbott win this damn state by 10 points following Dobbs?!

You're gonna hate to hear this, but that backwards ass state to the north might just be more progressive than ours these days.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105151

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4 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I know they would each last 2.5 hours at a minimum. Could push Bozo into the four-hour territory if you just mention Austin city zoning laws.

But imagine what the plated dinner at the reception would be (bride's family is in charge of that).  Something both simple, yet refined -- maybe something classically American, like a burger.  But....and follow me here.....deconstructed.....

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Js1

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2 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

You're gonna hate to hear this, but that backwards ass state to the north might just be more progressive than ours these days.

You can buy fucking weed there. At least you can be stoned while being miserable and having your rights oppressed. Can’t do that here, legally 

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

But imagine what the plated dinner at the reception would be (bride's family is in charge of that).  Something both simple, yet refined -- maybe something classically American, like a burger.  But....and follow me here.....deconstructed.....

SteelShank to cater.

Hope your families enjoy leftover hot dogs and Bud Light.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105151

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Just now, FirstTimeCaller said:

SteelShank to cater.

Hope your families enjoy leftover hot dogs and Bud Light.

If you served cheap beer, hot dogs, chippy, and Taco Bell, my son would be over the moon.  I suspect that his would-be bride might see things differently, though.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If you served cheap beer, hot dogs, chippy, and Taco Bell, my son would be over the moon.  I suspect that his would-be bride might see things differently, though.

There's also the entire "laying pipe" issue when it comes to Shank being at a wedding.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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11 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

You're gonna hate to hear this, but that backwards ass state to the north might just be more progressive than ours these days.

To the extent this is true, I might have a theory: OK is starting to get attention on things where whites aren't always the good guys - Tulsa race riots and killers of the flower moon both big in pop culture.  That moves hearts and minds in a variety of ways -- obviously the facial one where you're forced to think about others' interests, but I think a lot of the driver of rural red state is grievance of being 'left behind' by people that shape cultural flows.  their presence in the spot light, in thoughtful, non mocking ways, even if not positive, lessens that ignored feel.  

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!
edit: . . . 'aren't' always the good guys . . .
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