Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[Brisketexan 105337]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You can buy fucking weed there. At least you can be stoned while being miserable and having your rights oppressed. Can’t do that here, legally 

Oh, I think we have reached the point of "Texas....longing for the good-sense and decency of Oklahoma and Mississippi."  If we didn't have O&G and tex-mex, we'd be either of those places....but worse.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

If we didn't have O&G and tex-mex, we'd be either of those places....but worse.

 

[Js1 85576]

Now wait just a damn minute 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-voters-philadelphia-bucks-county-address-biden-age/
 

Quote

Democratic voters downplay concerns about Biden's age

Looking ahead to November, Democratic voters who appeared at the polls in person on Tuesday felt confident about Mr. Biden's chances of winning Pennsylvania in a potential rematch with Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

Most who spoke to CBS News dismissed concerns about the president's age, which were brought into the spotlight by special counsel Robert Hur's classified records report. The report concluded charges should not be brought against Mr. Biden, but said the president could "present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."

Mr. Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and their allies have called the characterization by Hur  "politically motivated."

Mr. Biden is currently 81 years old and is the oldest sitting U.S. president. Trump will be 78 years old by the November general election, which several Democrats and independent voters at the polls pointed out. 

"Trump is no spring chicken either. He's not. I really don't think age has anything to do with it. It's about how you treat people," said Rose Kendrick, a Democrat who felt the economy under Mr. Biden has been on an upward trend.

 

He's three years older than Trump. And look at the amount of mishaps Trump has had. He doesn't know who was in charge of the capitol when [Jan. 6] happened, he doesn't know who he's running against," said Leslie Benjamin, a 63-year-old Democrat. Benjamin said he had not seen Mr. Biden's remarks last Friday when the president mistakenly referred to Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi as the president of Mexico.

Bill Cousins, a Democratic voter in his 70s, referred to Trump as a "threat to democracy" and said press coverage of Mr. Biden has been "hung up on someone getting a few words mixed up."

"[Trump] has said what he's going to do. Day one dictator, mass deportations, closing the border, stacking the judicial systems," he said, referencing several comments made by Trump in recent speeches and interviews. "Assuming [Biden] has had a couple miles an hour taken off his fastball, that may very well be, but at the end of the day, I can't see where that's affected any policy decisions."

Sam Weed, a 36-year-old Democrat, said Mr. Biden has been "doing a lot more for the country than other presidents" but that she "obviously would like a younger candidate" such as California Governor Gavin Newsom. Weed also predicted that, come November, voters would be more concerned about the issue of abortion than the candidates' ages.

 

[Js1 85576]

 

[Brisketexan 105337]

Just now, Js1 said:

 

Just more proof that this is another stollen demon-rat election!

Seriously, what do you want to bet we see some version of that (the results didn't match the polls means that there was clearly massive democrat fraud) widely disseminated before this day is over?  Whatever you want to bet....you will win.

[Zonahorn 8079]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Now wait just a damn minute 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-voters-philadelphia-bucks-county-address-biden-age/
 

 

It’s almost like editorial boards like WAPO and NYT are catering to the right for engagement numbers instead of reality.

[Brisketexan 105337]

Just now, Zonahorn said:

It’s almost like editorial boards like WAPO and NYT are catering to the right for engagement numbers instead of reality.

When a sizable chunk of your audience DEMANDS outright insanity and falsehoods....you gotta deliver if you're gonna get the clicks and the $$$.  We're days away from this cover of the NYT:

[Ghost of LL 15539]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

If the polls are constantly overrating the GOP by 4-5 points, then Biden is likely winning by 3-4 points nationally and probably just repeating 2020’s results. Not much seems to have changed since 2020, really 

The polls are broken because there's a bunch of people who only fucking come out when Donald Trump is on the ballot.  They view politics as entertainment.  And they're not going to go to the show if Bette Midler isn't going to be on stage that night.  They're showing up for the star, not the fucking understudy.

Polls of "likely voters" can't account for that.  So you're saying you voted in 2016 and 2020?  Well, you're probably a likely voter for purposes of the likely-voter screen.  But--and stay with me here--that person really isn't a likely voter in a special election in the middle of February if he didn't vote in 2022 or 2018 or any fucking presidential election before 2016.

But is he a likely voter in November with Trump on the ballot?  My guess is "yes."

11 hours ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

So, Donald, you fucking moron, here's the real scoop: Souzzi won by the margin he did entirely BECAUSE OF YOU!

Pilip went out and toed the GQP line in favor of killing the (formerly bipartisan) border deal.  And Souzzi fucking hung her with that.  He argued that immigration is a clusterfuck and the border is in crisis, and it is Republicans like Pilip who refuse to do anything about it.  They're imperiling national security for perceived political gain.  "Blame me," said Trump, and the voters fucking did.

I don't think Souzzi could turn immigration into a positive for Democrats.  But he sure showed the gameplan for how to neuter the issue.  

And the gameplan exists entirely because of Trump.  He's the one who took his own best issue off the field.  It's like having Reggie Bush on the fucking sideline for 4th and 2.  Fucking unbelievable (thanks, Sark).

[Js1 85576]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

Pilip went out and toed the GQP line in favor of killing the (formerly bipartisan) border deal.  And Souzzi fucking hung her with that.  He argued that immigration is a clusterfuck and the border is in crisis, and it is Republicans like Pilip who refuse to do anything about it.  They're imperiling national security for perceived political gain.  "Blame me," said Trump, and the voters fucking did.

I don't think Souzzi could turn immigration into a positive for Democrats.  But he sure showed the gameplan for how to neuter the issue.  

 

Chris Murphy from CT noted this and said Dems have to run and own the immigration issue and hammer the GOP’s nuts to the table for killing a bill

 

*last part was mine 

[The Dog 44140]

Just now, Zonahorn said:

It’s almost like editorial boards like WAPO and NYT are catering to the right for engagement numbers instead of reality.

Yellow Journalism has always been a profitable venture. There's nothing new here. Hell, they named the top journalism prize after a prominent purveyor of the shit (Pulitzer).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_journalism

Here's how it ended back in the 19th century:

Quote

(William Randolph) Hearst was a leading Democrat who promoted William Jennings Bryan for president in 1896 and 1900. He later ran for mayor and governor and even sought the presidential nomination, but lost much of his personal prestige when outrage exploded in 1901 after columnist Ambrose Bierce and editor Arthur Brisbane published separate columns months apart that suggested the assassination of William McKinley. When McKinley was shot on September 6, 1901, critics accused Hearst's Yellow Journalism of driving Leon Czolgosz to the deed. It was later presumed that Hearst did not know of Bierce's column, and he claimed to have pulled Brisbane's after it ran in a first edition, but the incident would haunt him for the rest of his life, and all but destroyed his presidential ambitions.^[32]

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

When a sizable chunk of your audience DEMANDS outright insanity and falsehoods....you gotta deliver if you're gonna get the clicks and the $$$.  We're days away from this cover of the NYT:

Man, WWN was such a big part of my childhood. 

[The Dog 44140]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

The polls are broken because there's a bunch of people who only fucking come out when Donald Trump is on the ballot.  They view politics as entertainment.  And they're not going to go to the show if Bette Midler isn't going to be on stage that night.  They're showing up for the star, not the fucking understudy.

Polls of "likely voters" can't account for that.  So you're saying you voted in 2016 and 2020?  Well, you're probably a likely voter for purposes of the likely-voter screen.  But--and stay with me here--that person really isn't a likely voter in a special election in the middle of February if he didn't vote in 2022 or 2018 or any fucking presidential election before 2016.

But is he a likely voter in November with Trump on the ballot?  My guess is "yes."

So, Donald, you fucking moron, here's the real scoop: Souzzi won by the margin he did entirely BECAUSE OF YOU!

Pilip went out and toed the GQP line in favor of killing the (formerly bipartisan) border deal.  And Souzzi fucking hung her with that.  He argued that immigration is a clusterfuck and the border is in crisis, and it is Republicans like Pilip who refuse to do anything about it.  They're imperiling national security for perceived political gain.  "Blame me," said Trump, and the voters fucking did.

I don't think Souzzi could turn immigration into a positive for Democrats.  But he sure showed the gameplan for how to neuter the issue.  

And the gameplan exists entirely because of Trump.  He's the one who took his own best issue off the field.  It's like having Reggie Bush on the fucking sideline for 4th and 2.  Fucking unbelievable (thanks, Sark).

The Democrats need to recycle Truman's tactic of labeling the GOP the "do nothing Republicans" lead by the "Do Nothing Donald".

[Pescado_Rojo 19428]

43 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Then how the fuck did Abbott win this damn state by 10 points following Dobbs?!

For years we've heard Texas is on the verge of turning purple, but I think our growth probably nets out more red than blue. You've got the inland empire MAGA weirdos flocking here because no state income tax (it will take them a while to figure out their effective tax rate is higher here than in California...but at least they can open carry here and own AR15s) You've got the blue collar rust belt types moving in for living wage O&G jobs, and it turns out Hispanics aren't the loyal Blue monolith Democrats assumed them to be. Unless the TDP gets their heads out of their asses and figures out how to turn out Harris and Dallas counties, I think Texas stays red for the foreseeable future. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19428]

47 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If you served cheap beer, hot dogs, chippy, and Taco Bell, my son would be over the moon.  I suspect that his would-be bride might see things differently, though.

Will there be chili for the hot dogs, or will they be out? 

[Js1 85576]

3 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

For years we've heard Texas is on the verge of turning purple, but I think our growth probably nets out more red than blue. You've got the inland empire MAGA weirdos flocking here because no state income tax (it will take them a while to figure out their effective tax rate is higher here than in California...but at least they can open carry here and own AR15s) You've got the blue collar rust belt types moving in for living wage O&G jobs, and it turns out Hispanics aren't the loyal Blue monolith Democrats assumed them to be. Unless the TDP gets their heads out of their asses and figures out how to turn out Harris and Dallas counties, I think Texas stays red for the foreseeable future. 

Texas was a lot cause when Uvalde voted for Abbott. The majority of the state doesnt want change

[Brisketexan 105337]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Chris Murphy from CT noted this and said Dems have to run and own the immigration issue and hammer the GOP’s nuts to the table for killing a bill

 

*last part was mine 

...and should be adopted by the Dems.  The Dems need to fucking figure out that the name of the game here is "raise the black flag and start slitting throats."

What would you do to defend this Republic from an enemy that has OPENLY declared that it wants to destroy it and replace it with a fascist authoritarian dictatorship?  My family had to deal with fascist authoritarians before, a few decades ago.  Grandpa took a ship over to France, then shot nazis in the face for a couple of fucking years.  That's how we need to fight these fuckers.  Raise the black flag, start slitting throats.  Hammer their nuts to the table.  Call them out for being the lying, treasonous shitbags they are.  Call them out for hating and wanting to enslave women.  Brand them as the book-burning nazis that they actually are (not hyperbole, Republicans are actually burning books).  Attack their families.  Ruin their businesses wherever you can.  Drive their movement into the sea, then hold its head underwater until the flailing stops.

All of those things are kin to what they have PROMISED to do to us, and have had success doing already.  Fight fire with firebombing raids on Dresden.

[Brisketexan 105337]

4 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Will there be chili for the hot dogs, or will they be out? 

Bozo and Brisket:

[Bozo_Casanova 26554]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

But imagine what the plated dinner at the reception would be (bride's family is in charge of that).  Something both simple, yet refined -- maybe something classically American, like a burger.  But....and follow me here.....deconstructed.....

Sure, but elevated. Like with burrata, heirloom tomato… pesto maybe?

[The Dog 44140]

16 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

For years we've heard Texas is on the verge of turning purple, but I think our growth probably nets out more red than blue.

It's because the Democrats aren't even trying. Suburban counties are trending blue all over this state (and nationally) yet you won't see any effort to take advantage of it from the Texas Democratic Party. Anything that happens is grass-roots exclusively. 

[Brisketexan 105337]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Sure, but elevated. Like with burrata, heirloom tomato… pesto maybe?

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13587]

21 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

For years we've heard Texas is on the verge of turning purple, but I think our growth probably nets out more red than blue. You've got the inland empire MAGA weirdos flocking here because no state income tax (it will take them a while to figure out their effective tax rate is higher here than in California...but at least they can open carry here and own AR15s) You've got the blue collar rust belt types moving in for living wage O&G jobs, and it turns out Hispanics aren't the loyal Blue monolith Democrats assumed them to be. Unless the TDP gets their heads out of their asses and figures out how to turn out Harris and Dallas counties, I think Texas stays red for the foreseeable future. 

You left out Floridians fleeing the home insurance crisis in DeSantistan. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

Oops

[Brisketexan 105337]

2 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Oops

"We're gonna get started on that now."

The most urgent, dangerous security issue our nation has ever faced (according to these same folks), and.....they're going to START thinking about it?  EIGHT FUCKING YEARS AFTER THEIR ORANGE GOD TOLD THEM IT WAS THE MOST URGENT NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUE?  If that was remotely fucking true, what these fuckers are doing would be the equivalent of, on December 7, 1949, saying "we're gonna get started on putting together a plan to address Japanese aggression and the attack on Pearl Harbor that, uhh, 'meets the moment,' and does the things we want, which, uhhh, are things we are gonna talk about to figure out what they are.  Soon."

[Pescado_Rojo 19428]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

"We're gonna get started on that now."

The most urgent, dangerous security issue our nation has ever faced (according to these same folks), and.....they're going to START thinking about it?  EIGHT FUCKING YEARS AFTER THEIR ORANGE GOD TOLD THEM IT WAS THE MOST URGENT NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUE?  If that was remotely fucking true, what these fuckers are doing would be the equivalent of, on December 7, 1949, saying "we're gonna get started on putting together a plan to address Japanese aggression and the attack on Pearl Harbor that, uhh, 'meets the moment,' and does the things we want, which, uhhh, are things we are gonna talk about to figure out what they are.  Soon."

All while saying "You know, that Yamamoto is a brilliant guy. Really impressive. Maybe we should look at what we did to make him angry?" 

[Js1 85576]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

"We're gonna get started on that now."

The most urgent, dangerous security issue our nation has ever faced (according to these same folks), and.....they're going to START thinking about it?  EIGHT FUCKING YEARS AFTER THEIR ORANGE GOD TOLD THEM IT WAS THE MOST URGENT NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUE?  If that was remotely fucking true, what these fuckers are doing would be the equivalent of, on December 7, 1949, saying "we're gonna get started on putting together a plan to address Japanese aggression and the attack on Pearl Harbor that, uhh, 'meets the moment,' and does the things we want, which, uhhh, are things we are gonna talk about to figure out what they are.  Soon."

Conservative - regressive and reactive

[Js1 85576]

55 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

The polls are broken because there's a bunch of people who only fucking come out when Donald Trump is on the ballot.  They view politics as entertainment.  And they're not going to go to the show if Bette Midler isn't going to be on stage that night.  They're showing up for the star, not the fucking understudy.

Polls of "likely voters" can't account for that.  So you're saying you voted in 2016 and 2020?  Well, you're probably a likely voter for purposes of the likely-voter screen.  But--and stay with me here--that person really isn't a likely voter in a special election in the middle of February if he didn't vote in 2022 or 2018 or any fucking presidential election before 2016.

But is he a likely voter in November with Trump on the ballot?  My guess is "yes."

Sure, but enthusiasm still seems to favor Dems.  We saw warning signs for Dems leading up to 2016 and 2022.  We saw similar signs for GOP leading up to 2018, 2020 and now 2024.

Regardless of election - who is going to turn out every single election?  High propensity, college-educated voters (and WOMEN ESPECIALLY) in the suburbs. 

We saw quite a few big suburban swings last night - Bucks County especially and Souzzi winning Nassau (he currently leads in Nassau 53-47).

Polling is what it is - you get who answers and stays on the phone and try to deduce what that is representative of.  Elections are actual voters casting votes, not just saying something on the phone.  

[Kel Varnsen 8541]

What a slimy weasel POS

[Dahobbs 17682]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Sure, but enthusiasm still seems to favor Dems.  We saw warning signs for Dems leading up to 2016 and 2022.  We saw similar signs for GOP leading up to 2018, 2020 and now 2024.

Regardless of election - who is going to turn out every single election?  High propensity, college-educated voters (and WOMEN ESPECIALLY) in the suburbs. 

We saw quite a few big suburban swings last night - Bucks County especially and Souzzi winning Nassau (he currently leads in Nassau 53-47).

Polling is what it is - you get who answers and stays on the phone and try to deduce what that is representative of.  Elections are actual voters casting votes, not just saying something on the phone.  

Polling works if you can get truly random samples. That doesn't appear to be possible any longer. Every poll suffers from self-selection bias and pollsters are just making guesses to adjust for it.  

[YChang 3462]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

To that point

 

yeah, I think this year I should work with some AAPI groups to get the vote out. 

[cactusflinthead 27602]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

truman 48 huh. hoping heart attacks on the populace.

[Js1 85576]

Pollsters refuse to acknowledge that Dems continue to win the *persuasion* argument. 

Turnout by party doesn't matter if Dems continue to peel off significant chunks of registered Republican voters. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

"It looks like just what we'd expect" - says pollster with polls that predicted nothing close to what happened. 

[Aqua Buddha 14610]

The MSM is such a fucking beating.  They're trying to hard to be "balanced" that they're wildly unbalanced to one side.

[Js1 85576]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

"It looks like just what we'd expect" - says pollster with polls that predicted nothing close to what happened. 

2016: massive polling miss in favor of the Dems, the industry will never recover without significant changes

2024: "Being consistently 4-7 points off in favor of the GOP is totally normal" 

[Zonahorn 8079]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

"It looks like just what we'd expect" - says pollster with polls that predicted nothing close to what happened. 

“Suozzi only won by double the polling margin, but it feels like he lost.”

[Aqua Buddha 14610]

We have two parties and one is literally broke financially, is at war with itself, and has lost almost everything in the last eight years but let's report on how old the candidate is from the other party.

[Js1 85576]

7 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

“Suozzi only won by double the polling margin, but it feels like he lost.”

Elections are just polls and vibes now.  Actual results don't mean anything. 

[Aqua Buddha 14610]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Elections are just polls and vibes now.  Actual results don't mean anything. 

Moral victories and polls are like recruiting rankings.

[Bozo_Casanova 26554]

2 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

You've got the inland empire MAGA weirdos flocking here because no state income tax (it will take them a while to figure out their effective tax rate is higher here than in California

Speaking of which, how fucking bad are these people at doing any of their own research? I keep meeting them and all they do is bitch about property taxes and how hot it is. Where did they think they were moving?
They all talk about how they are going to move out of the People’s Republic of Austin (when they already live in Cedar Park and pay higher property taxes) and move to someplace where the values match their own and they “get more for their money” like Katy or Spring, which do not have a lower tax burden and have even worse weather. 

Edited February 14 by Bozo_Casanova

[BamaATL 16593]

46 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Speaking of which, how fucking bad are these people at doing any of their own research? I keep meeting them and all they do is bitch about property taxes and how hot it is. Where did they think they were moving?
They all talk about how they are going to move out of the People’s Republic of Austin (when they already live in Cedar Park and pay higher property taxes) and move to someplace where the values match their own and they “get more for their money” like Katy or Spring, which do not have a lower tax burden and have even worse weather. 

That sounds sort of like moving to Ecuador and complaining about how close it is the equator.  

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

Good look with that Republicans

Edited February 14 by Zonahorn

[gmr548 16616]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Now wait just a damn minute 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-voters-philadelphia-bucks-county-address-biden-age/
 

 

Democrats with strong enough partisan lean and politcal engagement to vote in a Special Election are going to vote for Biden, news at 11.

[TheStoicPaisano 9939]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

When a sizable chunk of your audience DEMANDS outright insanity and falsehoods....you gotta deliver if you're gonna get the clicks and the $$$.  We're days away from this cover of the NYT:

Clicks pay salaries.

Edited February 14 by TheStoicPaisano

[Underdog 28773]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

When a sizable chunk of your audience DEMANDS outright insanity and falsehoods....you gotta deliver if you're gonna get the clicks and the $$$.  We're days away from this cover of the NYT:

And here I always thought Cruz was Cuban-Canadian, but the Bat Boy fleshes out. 

[Js1 85576]

• 4 point shift left for Dem Brandon William's district (D+1 to around D+5) 
• Some tweaks that would make Pat Ryan's district bluer and Mark Molinaro's district redder (Ryan is in a D+1 that would get bluer and Molinaro's EVEN district would get redder)

Unfortunately, it appears the commission does not want to aggressively change the maps to avoid legal challenges (no Hochulmander).  But the legislature can still veto the maps. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

• 4 point shift left for Dem Brandon William's district (D+1 to around D+5) 
• Some tweaks that would make Pat Ryan's district bluer and Mark Molinaro's district redder (Ryan is in a D+1 that would get bluer and Molinaro's EVEN district would get redder)

Unfortunately, it appears the commission does not want to aggressively change the maps to avoid legal challenges (no Hochulmander).  But the legislature can still veto the maps. 

Legislature needs to veto. Everyone there is so afraid of a hochulmander……. Fine.  They should still be able to fix the map where it’s 20-6 or 19-7 in favor of the dems. Need to gain a few to offset what happened in NC.

[C-Man 27262]

George Santos puts former congressional colleagues in group chat to call them ‘f***ing idiots’

https://www.semafor.com/article/02/14/2024/george-santos-puts-former-congressional-colleagues-in-group-chat-to-call-them-fing-idiots

Quote

Ex-Congressman George Santos is on a revenge tour after Republicans lost the seat vacated by his expulsion — and blowing up the New York delegation group chat along the way.

In a text message to some of his former Republican colleagues, who joined state and local GOP leaders in disavowing him and spent months aggressively pushing for his ouster, Santos blamed them for costing the party a seat. Parts of the text chain, a screenshot of which Santos shared with Semafor, were first reported by The Daily Beast. Not everyone was on the list: Rep. Brandon Williams, R-N.Y. apparently didn’t merit a text.

“I hope you guys are happy with this dismal performance and your 10 million for futile Bull Shit cost the party,” he texted the entire New York Republican delegation. “I look very forward to most of you losing due to your absolute hate filled campaign to remove me from Congress arbitrarily. Now go tell the Republicans Base what you fucking idiots did and good luck raising money next quarter.”

Rep. Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., is the only member who appeared to reply: “Sorry, new phone, who dis?“ he texted. He did not respond to a request for comment.

Asked by Semafor if he wanted to respond to Santos, Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y. texted “NOPE.“

[Js1 85576]

She’s an angry little elf 

[Zonahorn 8079]

You mad bro?