Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[Serak The Preparer 3431]

That is awesome. There is only one way that could have possible been better:

[TexPx 2323]

For years we've heard Texas is on the verge of turning purple, but I think our growth probably nets out more red than blue. You've got the inland empire MAGA weirdos flocking here because no state income tax (it will take them a while to figure out their effective tax rate is higher here than in California...but at least they can open carry here and own AR15s) You've got the blue collar rust belt types moving in for living wage O&G jobs, and it turns out Hispanics aren't the loyal Blue monolith Democrats assumed them to be. Unless the TDP gets their heads out of their asses and figures out how to turn out Harris and Dallas counties, I think Texas stays red for the foreseeable future. 

A good trend?

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

New York Dems response is putting these maps in the trash where they belong

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

doesn't blue bubble on the right mean that it is santos's phone we are looking at?  he did this then screen shot it to send to the news?

[gmr548 16580]

19 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

doesn't blue bubble on the right mean that it is santos's phone we are looking at?  he did this then screen shot it to send to the news?

Are you suggesting George Santos would not make the decision that results in the most attention possible on himself?

[Js1 85413]

34 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

New York Dems response is putting these maps in the trash where they belong

Does sound like it could end up voted down in the lege so they can draw their own 22-4 map

[Voldemort86 2259]

35 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

New York Dems response is putting these maps in the trash where they belong

This tweet tells you all you need to know.  Repubs trying to throw dems a crumb and keep most of the cookie. Dems need to be aggressive here. Repubs didn’t offer nearly as much as they should’ve given the circumstances.  NY gop needed to try and cut their losses by putting up a 19-6 map and hoping the dems would go easy on them a little bit, but this one is way to soft / mild / doesn’t cut deep enough.

[Pescado_Rojo 19423]

21 hours ago, TexPx said:

A good trend?

I'd want to see that broken down by level of education, among other things before I could say yes or no. A 22 year old blue collar kid moving here to work in the oil patch is going to be a Republican voter just as surely as a boomer or gen x guy in the same field. 

[Js1 85413]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

9 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

It would be foolish to accept the commissions map.  It seems like the commission is trying to give the dems as little as possible. Which when you look at what’s happening nationally,  that’s not nearly enough.  NC and Florida GOP went in dry and NY dems need to follow suit.

[Js1 85413]

Well if anyone is curious, either the Nates moved to the UK or there is just some inherent belief that left-leaning victories in elections just don't matter because the vibes aren't right. 

Tories/Sunak are excuse-making their two losses in deep Tory territories yesterday  "Low turnout elections..."  "Midterm by-elections are so difficult for the party in power"  "If you add up the vote total for the right-wing parties, it's actually a loss for Labour"

Polling experts in the UK: "Results are bad for Tories, but it's not about anything Labour did" 

Tories lost 38 points of vote share in Wellingborough and 21 points in Kingswood.  Labour and Reform UK were the biggest beneficiaries and Labour took both seats

[BamaATL 16593]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well if anyone is curious, either the Nates moved to the UK or there is just some inherent belief that left-leaning victories in elections just don't matter because the vibes aren't right. 

Tories/Sunak are excuse-making their two losses in deep Tory territories yesterday  "Low turnout elections..."  "Midterm by-elections are so difficult for the party in power"  "If you add up the vote total for the right-wing parties, it's actually a loss for Labour"

Polling experts in the UK: "Results are bad for Tories, but it's not about anything Labour did" 

Tories lost 38 points of vote share in Wellingborough and 21 points in Kingswood.  Labour and Reform UK were the biggest beneficiaries and Labour took both seats

Is this good or bad for Harry and Megan?  

[TexPx 2323]

I'd want to see that broken down by level of education, among other things before I could say yes or no. A 22 year old blue collar kid moving here to work in the oil patch is going to be a Republican voter just as surely as a boomer or gen x guy in the same field. 

I didn’t see a break down but they are mostly moving to the big cities. I would imagine jobs in the service industry, retail and health care along with corporate relocations are some reasons. I don’t know if recent social legislation has changed things in the last couple of years.

[texasdago 7575]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Is this good or bad for Harry and Megan?  

...and will she be in the Suits reboot?

[Js1 85413]

(This is the state house and senate maps, but we should also see something similar with the Congressional maps for 2026)

 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

10 hours ago, Js1 said:

(This is the state house and senate maps, but we should also see something similar with the Congressional maps for 2026)

 

 

Robin vos is a dirty piece of shit. I hope they go in as hard as possible on that idiot.

[Js1 85413]

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19103]

NY Democrats rejected the maps and are redrawing them.

Democrats Reject Bipartisan Map and Will Redraw N.Y. House Districts https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/26/nyregion/redistricting-maps-ny-congress.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

Quote

Democrats seized control over drawing New York’s congressional districts on Monday, rejecting a map proposed by the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission in favor of drafting new lines that could make key swing seats more Democratic.

 

On a day of high drama inside the State Capitol in Albany, party leaders argued that the Senate and Assembly had no choice but to reject the commission map in lopsided votes because it improperly split counties, broke up naturally occurring communities and favored incumbents.

 

But in private conversations, they made little effort to hide their true objective. With the battle for control of the House likely to run through New York this fall, Democrats here and in Washington are determined to use their supermajority in the State Legislature to tilt the playing field against Republicans from Long Island to Syracuse.

 

The exact contours of the replacement districts remained to be seen late Monday. State lawmakers were expected to quickly release a draft of the replacement map in preparation for approval later this week, but discussions stretched into the night.

Behind closed doors, Democrats were still haggling over a complex set of legal and political concerns. Three Democrats briefed on the discussions said they were headed toward a middle ground: lines that Democrats hoped would offset Republican gains from a new gerrymander in North Carolina, and that would not run afoul of New York’s ban on partisan gerrymandering.

 

If the emerging plan holds, the most significant changes would come on Long Island, in the Hudson Valley and around Syracuse. Democrats’ proposed changes could endanger a pair of Republican incumbents — Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams — and help secure a Democratic one, Representative-elect Tom Suozzi, on the North Shore of Long Island.

 

The competing pressures were intense after two years of near incessant fighting over New York’s maps. Democrats under the leadership of Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York most recently spent millions of dollars in legal fees fighting for the chance to redraw the maps, a move that could help make Mr. Jeffries speaker.

But they cannot afford a repeat of 2022, when the Legislature overplayed its hand and watched in humiliation as the state’s top court struck down its map as an unconstitutional gerrymander. The court proceeded to put in place a neutral replacement map that helped Republicans flip four seats.

 

“It’s a big fork in the road,” said Dave Wasserman, an elections analyst with the Cook Political Report. “The more aggressive their play, the bigger potential reward in seats, but the higher risk courts could step in again to block it or preserve the status quo.”

 

Republicans forcefully opposed Democrats’ maneuver. On Monday, almost every Republican voted in favor of the nonpartisan map, hailing it as a rare opportunity to inspire public confidence. But their votes were not enough to overcome Democrats’ vast advantages.

 

The final tally mostly broke down on party lines, with the map being voted down 40 to 17 in the Senate and 99 to 47 in the Assembly, where two Democrats broke with their party.

Republicans warned that the majority party was once again marching toward a gerrymander that violated both the State Constitution and its purported commitment to electoral fairness across the country.

 

“For a party that claims they want to protect democracy and put people over politics, they sure have a funny way of showing it,” said Representative Mike Lawler, one of the Republican incumbents nervously awaiting the new House map.

 

Ronald S. Lauder, the Republican billionaire who helped finance the successful court challenge to the 2022 map, said he was prepared to quickly go back to court if needed.

 

“I’ll fight to stop them both in the courts and in the court of public opinion,” Mr. Lauder said. “And I’ll win.”

Democrats in Albany bristled at the insinuation, insisting that they were acting squarely within the law that gives the Legislature ultimate authority to draw legislative maps in New York.

 

“If we come up with a map that respects communities of interest, deals with keeping political boundaries intact and deals with some of the issues that we think are flawed in the map that was presented to us, hopefully the courts will agree,” Michael Gianaris, the No. 2 Democrat in the State Senate, told reporters.

He flatly said that lawmakers were “prohibited” from drawing a map designed for partisan gain.

 

But Democrats were simultaneously preparing to take additional steps that some party officials privately worried could complicate their case if it ends up in court.

Lawmakers appeared poised, for instance, to repeal or effectively ignore a state law that says no change to the map adopted by the redistricting commission can affect more than 2 percent of any given district’s population.

“That would be a clear violation of the New York State Constitution,” he wrote.

Mr. Gianaris took up that argument on Monday, though unlike Mr. Jeffries, he acknowledged the apparent incumbent protection was bipartisan.

 

Mr. Jeffries has relied on two Democratic congressman with deep ties to state politics, Joseph Morelle of Rochester and Gregory W. Meeks of Queens, to serve as intermediaries with state leaders in crafting a possible alternative.

 

They fielded a broad range of partisan and parochial concerns, but appeared to be coalescing around a map that split the difference, according to three Democrats familiar with the potential map. They were granted anonymity to discuss the private negotiations and cautioned that its contours could change.

They said the legislative map would probably maintain the commission’s changes to the Syracuse area, endangering Mr. Williams, while unwinding tweaks that would have benefited Mr. Molinaro, a top Democratic target.

 

Lawmakers would move some heavily Republican communities on Long Island, like Massapequa, from Mr. Suozzi’s Third District to the Republican-held Second District. The result would likely clear an easy path to re-election for Mr. Suozzi, who won a hard-fought special election this month. The area’s First District was expected to remain a Republican-leaning swing seat.

 

The map would also rearrange district lines in the Bronx. For example, Representative Jamaal Bowman will pick up Co-op City, a largely Black area that his district lost in 2022. But Democrats said they expected the changes to have little effect on the bitter primary fight he is facing.

Democrats appeared poised to leave at least two closely watched areas largely untouched. They did not plan to make any changes to the right-leaning Staten Island district represented by Republican Nicole Malliotakis or to Mr. Lawler’s 17th District in Westchester County.

 

 

[SydneyCarton 48110]

What do they need to offset NC? How many seats?

Edited February 27 by SydneyCarton

[Js1 85413]

12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What do they need to offset NC? How many seats?

They may go for the 22-4 map, or close to it. It’s currently 14-10, so it would offset NC enough if they go that route 

[Voldemort86 2259]

What a joke. All the GOP voted for the map put forth by the committee. Tells you all that you need to know.

[Chuckie Finster 22701]

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

They may go for the 22-4 map, or close to it. It’s currently 14-10, so it would offset NC enough if they go that route 

Dems are so bad at this.

 

 

[Js1 85413]

2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Dems are so bad at this.

 

 

They do have to get the Senate/Gov to agree.  This is the assembly's map. 

[Chuckie Finster 22701]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

They do have to get the Senate/Gov to agree.  This is the assembly's map. 

Fingers crossed there's a backbone in there somewhere!

[Voldemort86 2259]

Supposedly the map has been passed and is on the way to the governor.  I’m not expecting a 22-4 like we all wanted, but damn at least give us a 19-7 or 20-6 map.

[Js1 85413]

11 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Supposedly the map has been passed and is on the way to the governor.  I’m not expecting a 22-4 like we all wanted, but damn at least give us a 19-7 or 20-6 map.

It's an 18-2-6 map. 

Limits the Rs to roughly an 8 seat ceiling (in a good year) instead of the 11 they held after 2022.  In a good year for Dems, they probably win 21-5.  In a bad year for Dems, maybe it's more like 18-8. 

Edited February 28 by Js1

[StassneyHorn 6614]

Damn I had no clue Mark Harris was running for Congress again in North Carolina. He literally, had an associate of his campaign found guilty of election fraud and had to drop out in 2018. Had a very memorable cry

 

Edited March 5 by StassneyHorn

[TheStoicPaisano 9922]

^He looks like an off-brand 45.

 

[chainsaw 9870]

On 3/5/2024 at 3:01 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Damn I had no clue Mark Harris was running for Congress again in North Carolina. He literally, had an associate of his campaign found guilty of election fraud and had to drop out in 2018. Had a very memorable cry

 

You can't tell me that's not Alex Murdaugh

[Underdog 28711]

Regis Philbin? 

[Js1 85413]

So….that’ll be a flip (running in NY-01 as an indie)

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21202]

[gmr548 16580]

18 hours ago, Js1 said:

So….that’ll be a flip (running in NY-01 as an indie)

 

George Santos accusing literally anyone else in the world of lying and swindling their voter base is something. Imagine being dumb enough to buy this.

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2042]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

George Santos accusing literally anyone else in the world of lying and swindling their voter base is something. Imagine being dumb enough to buy this.

(Motions around the republican room) yep, dumb enough to buy and donate

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

On 2/14/2024 at 4:24 PM, TexPx said:

A good trend?

By that time, everyone knew the kind of fascist shitheads that were running both TX and FL.  Migrants that willingly re-located to either state are supportive of such fascism; not coming here to change it.

[gmr548 16580]

45 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

By that time, everyone knew the kind of fascist shitheads that were running both TX and FL.  Migrants that willingly re-located to either state are supportive of such fascism; not coming here to change it.

Not necessarily true. Vast majority of people that relocate across state lines (or choose not to, for that matter) are driven by household economics (cost of living, job/educational, opportunity, whatever) or family dynamics. Politics is typically a secondary/tertiary concern if it registers at all. "Voting with your feet" is, for the most part, a privilege of the class of people who are probably going to be fine wherever they go.

Between that and the age issue the base case on this should be that most young people moving here probably fall somewhere between "well, the politics kinda suck but I can get a room in a 2BD apartment < $1,000 and still live in a major city with jobs and shit to do" and complete political disengagement.

[tx 3 putt 77070]

4 hours ago, gmr548 said:

George Santos accusing literally anyone else in the world of lying and swindling their voter base is something. Imagine being dumb enough to buy this.

Have you met an R voter ?

[SydneyCarton 48110]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

Between that and the age issue the base case on this should be that most young people moving here probably fall somewhere between "well, the politics kinda suck but I can get a room in a 2BD apartment < $1,000 and still live in a major city with jobs and shit to do" and complete political disengagement.

Uh, not in Houston really. Unless you’re talking about the real cheap shit in dangerous neighborhoods. 

[Sawbonz 27578]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Not necessarily true. Vast majority of people that relocate across state lines (or choose not to, for that matter) are driven by household economics (cost of living, job/educational, opportunity, whatever) or family dynamics. Politics is typically a secondary/tertiary concern if it registers at all. "Voting with your feet" is, for the most part, a privilege of the class of people who are probably going to be fine wherever they go.

Between that and the age issue the base case on this should be that most young people moving here probably fall somewhere between "well, the politics kinda suck but I can get a room in a 2BD apartment < $1,000 and still live in a major city with jobs and shit to do" and complete political disengagement.

Anecdotally I know of several people who have moved from blue states to Texas or Florida specifically for political reasons. One was a patient who saw me through a charity program I work with. He left a state where he was covered by the Medicaid expansion 🤷‍♂️

Edited March 23 by Sawbonz
Wtf autocorrect

[gmr548 16580]

9 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Uh, not in Houston really. Unless you’re talking about the real cheap shit in dangerous neighborhoods. 

I am both a Houston renter and in multifamily real estate by trade, and you're misinformed on this one.

 

9 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Anecdotally I know of several people who have moved from blue states to Texas or Florida specifically for political reasons. One was a patient who saw me through a charity program I work with. He left a state where he was covered by the Medicaid expansion 🤷‍♂️

Hence my use of qualifiers. There are always exceptions to rules.

[WhatTheBuck 28788]

9 hours ago, gmr548 said:

There are always exceptions to rules.

That sounds like a rule. So if there are always exceptions to rules then there are not always exceptions. By rule. 

[SydneyCarton 48110]

9 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I am both a Houston renter and in multifamily real estate by trade, and you're misinformed on this one.

 

Hence my use of qualifiers. There are always exceptions to rules.

This definitely surprises me. I know 3-4 renters in our area (Timbergrove) and they all complain about rents at 2k AND the apartments are getting poor elements in them. 
 

I stand corrected sir. 

[Sawbonz 27578]

Wrong thread

Edited March 24 by Sawbonz

[Gatorubet 30246]

23 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Anecdotally I know of several people who have moved from blue states to Texas or Florida specifically for political reasons. One was a patient who saw me through a charity program I work with. He left a state where he was covered by the Medicaid expansion 🤷‍♂️

Charity? I hope you gave him a big bottle of free placebos and sent him on his way.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Kay granger stepped down from appropriations committee.  Wish she would resign and leave the seat blank, but she’s sticking it out until the election.

[gmr548 16580]

10 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

This definitely surprises me. I know 3-4 renters in our area (Timbergrove) and they all complain about rents at 2k AND the apartments are getting poor elements in them. 
 

I stand corrected sir. 

In a desirable inner loop neighborhood like Timbergrove I buy that you can spend $2k or more on a 2BR apartment but you can also find cheaper. Of course, then you get into subjective criteria like quality of the unit or the demographic of the property when thinking about whether you actually want to live there, which can vary wildly between different people and properties. And Timbergorve is mostly SFH anyway so not necessarily a ton of rentals to go around and those are more expensive. 

My two cents, Montrose, River Oaks, and Rice Village are probably the only neighborhoods where I'd say you're really  lucky if you find something < $1k/person. Otherwise, there's still stuff out there. To your point plenty of it may not necessarily be up to standard for higher income renters but for a 20-something just getting started and moving to TX for that first job, coming from a VHCOL market, or stuff like that, there are options that are going to look decent in most neighborhoods in Houston still.

[Js1 85413]

Youngest House GOP member (36), just elected in 2020, calls it quits

 

[atomheartbevo 89732]

He thinks they are gonna lose the majority/implode, assuming he didn’t get caught doing something Really Fucking Bad (although he would resign immediately if that was the case).  I bet he comes back in a few elections.

[Js1 85413]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He thinks they are gonna lose the majority/implode, assuming he didn’t get caught doing something Really Fucking Bad (although he would resign immediately if that was the case).  I bet he comes back in a few elections.

Nobody wants to work anymore 

[atomheartbevo 89732]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Nobody wants to work anymore 

Maybe some illegal immigrant can come in and take his job.  They have quite a few working the farms in Kansas.