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Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

bolverk

By bolverk
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,511

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

NYT has Rep Cori Bush losing to Wesley Bell 54-42 right now. 

Cori Bush went after AIPAC today in that they were the major backer of Bell. While AIPAC has been major backers of Dem primary opponents of the Squad, they've also given large amounts to other Democrats like Hakeem Jeffries.

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Js1

Js1 85,320

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Just now, cactusflinthead said:

Shot

 

Chaser

 

That came from the portion of a county she lost in 2022. She won it this time - it’s basically all that’s reported. Samuels was +9 there in 2022 and it’s a Trump +2 county 

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Satchel

Satchel 6,938

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The Citizens United money has targeted progressives who are not sufficiently deferential to Israel Bowman and Bush are the latest casualties. They’ll try again on Omar until the ruling is revisited.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11,139

Posted
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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

CA-47 is Katie Porter's seat, but she chose to run for Senate instead of reelection there. She won by ~3% in 2020, so that moving 9% to +12 would be a huge change.  The guy she beat in 2020 is also the R nominee for this cycle too. 

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Js1

Js1 85,320

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Let's hope that rings true, that'd be the House right there.  

Well not quite, bc NC is going to basically cancel half of that out. Remember it’s going from like 7-7 to 10-4.  But there’s still a lot of seats for the Dems to win back - especially in NY! 

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Js1

Js1 85,320

Posted
Posted

With 87% of the vote in, Mary Peltola is currently leading the Alaska House primary with 50.4% of the vote. In the *primary,* she's already over 50% 

It was generally assumed high-40s would be sufficient for her to win in November, as she got in 2022 and then won with ~55% of the vote after the RCV

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Js1

Js1 85,320

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Follow-up:

There was no question that Begich and Dahlstrom would have the votes to move forward, but Begich promised to end his campaign if he finished behind Dahlstrom. Dahlstrom, for her part, said she'd keep running no matter what.

The many Republicans whom Begich alienated both before and during his two failed campaigns for this seat in 2022 (he lost both the special and regular elections) wanted to do what they could to end his campaign in August, and Donald Trump, Gov. Mike Dunleavy, and House GOP leaders rallied around Dahlstrom. However, both Begich and Dahlstrom responded to Tuesday's results by making it clear they would keep running in the second round. Trump carried Alaska 53-43 in 2020, but continuing GOP infighting could help Peltola prevail again. 

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Js1

Js1 85,320

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35 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

87 and has been sick for a while.  I don't think he's been showing up in DC for a few months

D+8 district that he won by 12 points in 2022 and by 33 points in 2020. Plurality Latino district

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Js1

Js1 85,320

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On 8/21/2024 at 8:23 AM, Js1 said:

Follow-up:

There was no question that Begich and Dahlstrom would have the votes to move forward, but Begich promised to end his campaign if he finished behind Dahlstrom. Dahlstrom, for her part, said she'd keep running no matter what.

The many Republicans whom Begich alienated both before and during his two failed campaigns for this seat in 2022 (he lost both the special and regular elections) wanted to do what they could to end his campaign in August, and Donald Trump, Gov. Mike Dunleavy, and House GOP leaders rallied around Dahlstrom. However, both Begich and Dahlstrom responded to Tuesday's results by making it clear they would keep running in the second round. Trump carried Alaska 53-43 in 2020, but continuing GOP infighting could help Peltola prevail again. 

Dahlstrom, who was the GOP’s pick for this race, dropped out over the weekend. Begich already has losses to Peltola in both 2022 races. So I’m sure this is going to go swimmingly for the GOP. Peltola was already over 50% in the primary. Begich is going to need serious first round crossover from….Peltola voters…to have a chance 

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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

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I guess this is a good time to make my plea for Tony Vargas in NE-02. 

Don Bacon (R) has held the seat since 2016, beating a one term Dem who got the seat after some teabaggers ran a third party candidate in 2014.  Bacon runs as a centrist, but still campaigns with Trump and doesn't stand up against MAGA, except when the Freedom Party does stupid shit with the House leadership.  That part has put him on the outs with the state Republican Party, who is very MAGA. They refused to endorse Bacon this year.  Earlier in the election, I was seeing some Bacon ads where he was running to the right to shore up the base, including talking shit about immigrants.  That is the first time where I have I have seen Bacon (or any elected Omaha based politician) focus on immigration.  Omaha isn't terribly diverse, but with the stockyards and rail, immigrants have played a big part of its history.  

Tony Vargas (D) is the son of Peruvian immigrants.  HIs father passed away from COVID and Tony pushed hard on better protections for essential workers in the meat packing plants.  (His dad wasn't a meat packer.)  Tony is a lawyer.  I would say a moderate Democrat, avoiding issues that would hurt in Omaha.  He is the first elected Hispanic state senator, representing South O, where many recent immigrants live.  One of the things I really like about him is that would go door knocking even when there wasn't a pending election; he realized that his constituents weren't likely to reach out to him, so he reach out to them.  Good guy.  Well spoken.  Would be a great addition to Congress and with his focus on constituent service, might be able to hold the seat if he gets elected.  

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/duforvargas24

 

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Js1

Js1 85,320

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

GOP is dropping some big money on WI-01 (R+3), WI-03 (R+4) and PA-10 (R+5).  Those 3 even needing an infusion of ad buys from a super PAC is interesting....

WI-01 was a 10 point win for the GOP in 2022, WI-03 was a 3.5 point win (flip from the Dems) and PA-10 was an 8 point win for the GOP. 

PA-17 has an PVI of EVEN and was a 6 point win for the Dems (held Conor Lamb's seat). 

Edited by Js1
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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

Posted
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I don't usually worry too much about polling and prognosticators who say this will be a close election.  I think it helps keep the dems focused, energized, and unified.  

But, the flip side of that, if it starts looking like Trump and the Republicans are going to lose badly, you will start seeing a battle for post-election direction and leadership.  And that could help fracture the Republicans going into this election.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,657

Posted
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15 hours ago, Tuco said:

But, the flip side of that, if it starts looking like Trump and the Republicans are going to lose badly, you will start seeing a battle for post-election direction and leadership.  And that could help fracture the Republicans going into this election.  

I think we've already seen some of it, with Republicans going after Trump and his supporters.  It makes them unpopular now, but after he loses again, and possibly loses the  House, they are going to be out there screaming from the rooftops "SEE WE TOLD YOU TRUMP WAS A LOSER AND HE COST US ANOTHER FOUR YEARS OF THE WHITE HOUSE AND CONTROL OF THE HOUSE!"

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quigley

quigley 1,563

Posted
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57 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think we've already seen some of it, with Republicans going after Trump and his supporters.  It makes them unpopular now, but after he loses again, and possibly loses the  House, they are going to be out there screaming from the rooftops "SEE WE TOLD YOU TRUMP WAS A LOSER AND HE COST US ANOTHER FOUR YEARS OF THE WHITE HOUSE AND CONTROL OF THE HOUSE!"

Are there sitting elected national Republicans openly criticizing Trump? That would be HUGE benefit for Harris and the country. I would love it if they are starting to. Please point me to them.

Hell, I'd be happy if Mattis, Kelly, or McMaster cut an ad saying they wouldn't vote for Trump (not even that they're voting for Harris). This would create a permission structure for older GOP supports to, at least, sit this election out.

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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

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The fracture I’m waiting for are the prolifers. If they are convinced he’s going to lose, I could see them telling their followers to write in “murdered babies” or some shit like that. Send a message to other Republicans that a failure to support a 6 week abortion ban and federal legislation will derail your election.

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swraith

swraith 346

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Posted

Is the House in a perpetual state of "toss" up due to so many "safe" districts on each side? I was assuming the Democrats would have a better chance at retaking the House after Harris moved to the top of the ticket.  However, it seems like the House remains locked in a state of "toss up".

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Js1

Js1 85,320

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6 minutes ago, swraith said:

Is the House in a perpetual state of "toss" up due to so many "safe" districts on each side? I was assuming the Democrats would have a better chance at retaking the House after Harris moved to the top of the ticket.  However, it seems like the House remains locked in a state of "toss up".

There's not a lot of district-level polling.  Like a dearth, compared to 2020/22. 

There will be a lot of Election Night surprises because of it. But the House is, to me, lean D. Dems don't need many seats to win back the majority - even accounting for NC being 3 pickups for the GOP from the new maps, Dems can easily retake the majority through the NY/CA seats with higher presidential turnout and NY's new maps.  Not to mention AZ + automatic pickup of new seats in LA and AL. 

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Js1

Js1 85,320

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Politico reporting House Dems are again expanding the battlefield - going to invest money in “sleeper seats” like MI-10, WI-03, IA-01 and IA-03. Both parties see these seats have tightening margins for GOP incumbents

Walz could also head that way - this is his territory 

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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

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Total guess on my part:

With Harris running as a moderate and Trump running as a nutcase, I think the Dems will pick up seats.  In purple districts (which are the only ones we care about), the Republican candidate has to walk a tighter line on supporting Trump's policies than the Democratic candidate does on supporting Harris policies.  Heaven help the Republican candidate who does fully support Trump or his policies.  They are one tweet away from campaign implosion. 

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swraith

swraith 346

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Mostly I’m seeking signs or reading of the tea leaves that give the Dems improving odds of retaking the House. Mostly to offset concerns that Dems are likely to fall a seat short of holding the Senate. 

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Js1

Js1 85,320

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I thought just taking back what we lost in NY and CA means we win the House, no?

No, bc we are auto-losing 3 seats in NC when they dropped their awful GOP maps.

Straight up 7-7 map (for a 50/50 state) to 10-4 GOP 

6 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Which states has additional D leaning districts added as a result of redistricting court decisions?  Alabama? Georgia? 

Louisiana and Alabama each got a pretty safe blue district 

 

Edited by Js1
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,657

Posted
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5 hours ago, Js1 said:

There's not a lot of district-level polling.  Like a dearth, compared to 2020/22. 

There will be a lot of Election Night surprises because of it. But the House is, to me, lean D. Dems don't need many seats to win back the majority - even accounting for NC being 3 pickups for the GOP from the new maps, Dems can easily retake the majority through the NY/CA seats with higher presidential turnout and NY's new maps.  Not to mention AZ + automatic pickup of new seats in LA and AL. 

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

Total guess on my part:

With Harris running as a moderate and Trump running as a nutcase, I think the Dems will pick up seats.  In purple districts (which are the only ones we care about), the Republican candidate has to walk a tighter line on supporting Trump's policies than the Democratic candidate does on supporting Harris policies.  Heaven help the Republican candidate who does fully support Trump or his policies.  They are one tweet away from campaign implosion. 

A couple of things:

Trump is sucking up a lot of money that would be headed down-ballot, whereas the Dems are spending down-ballot.

Trump is campaigning solely for Trump and at Trump's convenience, and is not doing much to help down-ballot races.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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Posted

House should be easier to win then it is, but the GOP keeps screwing the dems hard in so many states.

ohio is pretty much a 12-4 R map, but even the people of that state want a 9-7 or 8-8 map. The Ohio gop legislature keeps ignoring the will of the people.

Wisconsin should be closer. Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Utah are clean Republican sweeps and the dems should probably have 1 seat in those states. 
 

North Carolina and Florida had pretty fair maps, but now both states are extremely rigged. Georgia is way too rigged. 
 

republicans only win in the house because of extreme gerrymandering.

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