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Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread


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On 9/18/2024 at 11:45 AM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

if this election cycle hasn't made it clear who the pubs represent, it never will be clear

well, with a nod to the rubes, dumbasses, assholes, racists, and misogynists, who can't think past their prejudice and fear, who the 'pubs represent is perfectly clear to anyone with critical thinking skills.

Edited by TeeDubya
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https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/23/republicans-hold-edge-in-3-of-4-congressional-races-over-democrats-iowa-poll-finds/75198136007/

3 of 4 Iowa races favor the GOP, 1 favors the Dems -  this is currently 4-0 GOP  (all generic though)

  • 1st District: 46% Republican, 49% Democrat, 5% not sure.
  • 2nd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 1% other, 4% not sure.
  • 3rd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 4% not sure.
  • 4th District: 57% Republican, 38% Democrat, 5% not sure.
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16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/23/republicans-hold-edge-in-3-of-4-congressional-races-over-democrats-iowa-poll-finds/75198136007/

3 of 4 Iowa races favor the GOP, 1 favors the Dems -  this is currently 4-0 GOP  (all generic though)

  • 1st District: 46% Republican, 49% Democrat, 5% not sure.
  • 2nd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 1% other, 4% not sure.
  • 3rd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 4% not sure.
  • 4th District: 57% Republican, 38% Democrat, 5% not sure.

If that's Selzer it's gospel.

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1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

If that's Selzer it's gospel.

It was.  But they didn't poll names, only generic party.  Not that helpful, but for reference

IA-01 - Trump 50.5, Biden 47.6
IA-02 - Trump 51.3, Biden 46.9
IA-03 - Trump 49.3, Biden 47.6
IA-04 - Trump 62.2, Biden 36.2

Interesting that Selzer sees the 1st as the most competitive and a likely Dem flip, when the 3rd is actually the most Dem-friendly - IA-03 is represented by Zach Nunn, who defeated Dem incumbent Cindy Axne by about 2k votes (50.3-49.6) and IA-01 is represented by Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who won 53.4 to 46.6.  She must suck lol

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It was.  But they didn't poll names, only generic party.  Not that helpful, but for reference

IA-01 - Trump 50.5, Biden 47.6
IA-02 - Trump 51.3, Biden 46.9
IA-03 - Trump 49.3, Biden 47.6
IA-04 - Trump 62.2, Biden 36.2

Interesting that Selzer sees the 1st as the most competitive and a likely Dem flip, when the 3rd is actually the most Dem-friendly - IA-03 is represented by Zach Nunn, who defeated Dem incumbent Cindy Axne by about 2k votes (50.3-49.6) and IA-01 is represented by Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who won 53.4 to 46.6.  She must suck lol

Maybe it was redrawn

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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/nyregion/anthony-desposito-affair-congress.html?unlocked_article_code=1.M04.6sdO.bAftmaRnv2Fq&smid=url-share

Needs to be a flip - Biden +14 district

A Congressman Had an Affair. Then He Put His Lover on the Payroll.

Representative Anthony D’Esposito, a New York Republican, gave part-time jobs to both his lover and his fiancée’s daughter, in possible violation of House ethics rules.

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/nyregion/anthony-desposito-affair-congress.html?unlocked_article_code=1.M04.6sdO.bAftmaRnv2Fq&smid=url-share

Needs to be a flip - Biden +14 district

A Congressman Had an Affair. Then He Put His Lover on the Payroll.

Representative Anthony D’Esposito, a New York Republican, gave part-time jobs to both his lover and his fiancée’s daughter, in possible violation of House ethics rules.

Those are rookie numbers

Spoiler

George-Santos-launches-Cameo-promotion-w

 

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4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Maybe it was redrawn

The prez numbers I posted were after they redrew in 2022.  IA-03 is supposed to be the more competitive district than IA-01.  

Hopefully we get some polls of IA-01 and IA-03 with the candidate names.  Should be actual flip targets for Dems. 

But Selzer had the statewide lean for the generic ballot at 56-38 and it is now 52-44.  Kamala effect.

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USC, Long Beach and Cal Poly conducted a poll of several California swing districts - Dems lead in 4, tied in 1, trail in 1

https://archive.is/kMpMv

CA-27 - Whitesides (D) 44-43 over incumbent Mike Garcia (R)
CA-45 - Tran (D) 45-42 over incumbent Michelle Steel (R)
CA-22 - Salas (D) 43-39 over incumbent Valadao (R)
CA-13 - Gray (D) 44-42 over incumbent Duarte (R)
CA-41 - Rollins (D) and incumbent Calvert (R) tied 46-46
CA-47 - Baugh (R) 46-42 over Min (D) - this is Porter's district; Min's drunk-driving arrest in 2023 is hurting him with voters (sigh...)

Edited by Js1
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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Has there been a summary of the likely house makeup at this time consdiering the NY changes offsetting the changes in other states previously? 

Not really much change, maybe +1 overall for Dems - NC with 3 flips D->R, NY with 4 flips R->D (Cook Political has 1 R race in NY leans-D and 3 toss-up)

It will come down to:

Flipping 3 or 4 of those CA seats (5 of them listed as tossup, CA-47 listed as lean D but will likely move to tossup)
Flipping 2 seats in AZ (2 listed as tossup)
Flipping 1 or 2 seats in Iowa (both listed as lean R, but Selzer has IA-03 as a possible flip)
Flipping NE-02 (tossup)
Flipping OR-05 and NJ-07 (both listed as tossup)
Flipping PA-10 and MI-10 and maybe VA-02 and WI-03 (all listed as lean R, but the Dems are making big-time plays for all 4)

Holding AK-AL, CO-08, NM-02, MI-07 and 08, NC-01, OH-13, PA-07 and 08, WA-03 (all listed as tossup)

Cook Political hasn't yet moved FL-13 out of likely R, but polling says otherwise. 

 

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