Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,699]

if this election cycle hasn't made it clear who the pubs represent, it never will be clear

[TeeDubya 3,279]

On 9/18/2024 at 11:45 AM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

if this election cycle hasn't made it clear who the pubs represent, it never will be clear

well, with a nod to the rubes, dumbasses, assholes, racists, and misogynists, who can't think past their prejudice and fear, who the 'pubs represent is perfectly clear to anyone with critical thinking skills.

Edited September 19 by TeeDubya

[Voldemort86 2,232]

On 9/18/2024 at 6:43 AM, cactusflinthead said:

 

Why does anyone vote repub?  Seriously……. All they do when they have power is pass tax cuts for billionaires and try to undo whatever accomplishments democrats have achieved.

[DigglerontheHoof 20,457]

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Why does anyone vote repub?  Seriously……. All they do when they have power is pass tax cuts for billionaires and try to undo whatever accomplishments democrats have achieved.

Replace you're with they're and woefully with willfully. 

[Js1 82,455]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/23/republicans-hold-edge-in-3-of-4-congressional-races-over-democrats-iowa-poll-finds/75198136007/

3 of 4 Iowa races favor the GOP, 1 favors the Dems -  this is currently 4-0 GOP  (all generic though)

• 1^st District: 46% Republican, 49% Democrat, 5% not sure.
• 2^nd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 1% other, 4% not sure.
• 3^rd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 4% not sure.
• 4^th District: 57% Republican, 38% Democrat, 5% not sure.

[chainsaw 9,456]

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/23/republicans-hold-edge-in-3-of-4-congressional-races-over-democrats-iowa-poll-finds/75198136007/

3 of 4 Iowa races favor the GOP, 1 favors the Dems -  this is currently 4-0 GOP  (all generic though)

• 1^st District: 46% Republican, 49% Democrat, 5% not sure.
• 2^nd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 1% other, 4% not sure.
• 3^rd District: 52% Republican, 44% Democrat, 4% not sure.
• 4^th District: 57% Republican, 38% Democrat, 5% not sure.

If that's Selzer it's gospel.

[Js1 82,455]

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

If that's Selzer it's gospel.

It was.  But they didn't poll names, only generic party.  Not that helpful, but for reference

IA-01 - Trump 50.5, Biden 47.6
IA-02 - Trump 51.3, Biden 46.9
IA-03 - Trump 49.3, Biden 47.6
IA-04 - Trump 62.2, Biden 36.2

Interesting that Selzer sees the 1st as the most competitive and a likely Dem flip, when the 3rd is actually the most Dem-friendly - IA-03 is represented by Zach Nunn, who defeated Dem incumbent Cindy Axne by about 2k votes (50.3-49.6) and IA-01 is represented by Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who won 53.4 to 46.6.  She must suck lol

[chainsaw 9,456]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It was.  But they didn't poll names, only generic party.  Not that helpful, but for reference

IA-01 - Trump 50.5, Biden 47.6
IA-02 - Trump 51.3, Biden 46.9
IA-03 - Trump 49.3, Biden 47.6
IA-04 - Trump 62.2, Biden 36.2

Interesting that Selzer sees the 1st as the most competitive and a likely Dem flip, when the 3rd is actually the most Dem-friendly - IA-03 is represented by Zach Nunn, who defeated Dem incumbent Cindy Axne by about 2k votes (50.3-49.6) and IA-01 is represented by Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who won 53.4 to 46.6.  She must suck lol

Maybe it was redrawn

[Js1 82,455]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/nyregion/anthony-desposito-affair-congress.html?unlocked_article_code=1.M04.6sdO.bAftmaRnv2Fq&smid=url-share

Needs to be a flip - Biden +14 district

A Congressman Had an Affair. Then He Put His Lover on the Payroll.

Representative Anthony D’Esposito, a New York Republican, gave part-time jobs to both his lover and his fiancée’s daughter, in possible violation of House ethics rules.

[chainsaw 9,456]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/nyregion/anthony-desposito-affair-congress.html?unlocked_article_code=1.M04.6sdO.bAftmaRnv2Fq&smid=url-share

Needs to be a flip - Biden +14 district

A Congressman Had an Affair. Then He Put His Lover on the Payroll.

Representative Anthony D’Esposito, a New York Republican, gave part-time jobs to both his lover and his fiancée’s daughter, in possible violation of House ethics rules.

Those are rookie numbers

Spoiler

 

[Js1 82,455]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Maybe it was redrawn

The prez numbers I posted were after they redrew in 2022.  IA-03 is supposed to be the more competitive district than IA-01.  

Hopefully we get some polls of IA-01 and IA-03 with the candidate names.  Should be actual flip targets for Dems. 

But Selzer had the statewide lean for the generic ballot at 56-38 and it is now 52-44.  Kamala effect.

[Js1 82,455]

USC, Long Beach and Cal Poly conducted a poll of several California swing districts - Dems lead in 4, tied in 1, trail in 1

https://archive.is/kMpMv

CA-27 - Whitesides (D) 44-43 over incumbent Mike Garcia (R)
CA-45 - Tran (D) 45-42 over incumbent Michelle Steel (R)
CA-22 - Salas (D) 43-39 over incumbent Valadao (R)
CA-13 - Gray (D) 44-42 over incumbent Duarte (R)
CA-41 - Rollins (D) and incumbent Calvert (R) tied 46-46
CA-47 - Baugh (R) 46-42 over Min (D) - this is Porter's district; Min's drunk-driving arrest in 2023 is hurting him with voters (sigh...)

Edited September 24 by Js1

[SydneyCarton 47,113]

Has there been a summary of the likely house makeup at this time consdiering the NY changes offsetting the changes in other states previously? 

[Js1 82,455]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Has there been a summary of the likely house makeup at this time consdiering the NY changes offsetting the changes in other states previously? 

Not really much change, maybe +1 overall for Dems - NC with 3 flips D->R, NY with 4 flips R->D (Cook Political has 1 R race in NY leans-D and 3 toss-up)

It will come down to:

Flipping 3 or 4 of those CA seats (5 of them listed as tossup, CA-47 listed as lean D but will likely move to tossup)
Flipping 2 seats in AZ (2 listed as tossup)
Flipping 1 or 2 seats in Iowa (both listed as lean R, but Selzer has IA-03 as a possible flip)
Flipping NE-02 (tossup)
Flipping OR-05 and NJ-07 (both listed as tossup)
Flipping PA-10 and MI-10 and maybe VA-02 and WI-03 (all listed as lean R, but the Dems are making big-time plays for all 4)

Holding AK-AL, CO-08, NM-02, MI-07 and 08, NC-01, OH-13, PA-07 and 08, WA-03 (all listed as tossup)

Cook Political hasn't yet moved FL-13 out of likely R, but polling says otherwise. 

 

[Zonahorn 7,855]

Internal, but top line is the same as Selzer.

[Js1 82,455]

No, the IA-03 top line was 52-44 GOP in the Selzer poll - you're thinking of IA-01

IA-03 is actually the friendliest to Dems based on the 2020 margins, but I highly doubt she's is going to outrun Biden by 8-9 points.

[C-Man 26,545]

In case this hasn't been shared.

'Dems have 62.9% chance to get House majority'

https://www.racetothewh.com/house

 

'Pubs have 59.5% chance to get Senate majority'

https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/24

[Js1 82,455]

@Tuco

 

 

 

[Tuco 5,009]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

@Tuco

 

 

 

Bacon tries to walk the line between MAGA and moderates, but I think this year there just isn't a line to follow.  The State Party refused to endorse him because he isn't MAGA enough.  Then he pissed off another chunk of voters by endorsing winner-take-all with 40 days left in the election.  

But have no fear, the fucking Ashfords are here to save them.  Ok, Brad's dead, but Ann still wants to show everyone how centrist she is by endorsing Bacon.  

Little background: Brad Ashford was the last elected Dem in the district, riding Republican dissension with the incumbent in 2014.  He was a boring, milktoast, generic D that Republicans were willing to live with to get rid of the dumber than shit incumbent.  He promptly lost to Bacon in 2016, in part because he never held town halls.  In 2018, he was upset in the primary to Kara Eastman, a progressive.  Kara lost to Bacon by 2 points, which was closer than expected.  Early in 2020 Brad said he wasn't going to run again, Kara announced, and then, relatively late, Anne announces she is going to run.  Why, I have no idea other than the Ashfords just felt it was their fucking destiny.  Kara beat Anne by a good margin, and then, late in the 2020 cycle, Brad endorses Bacon.  Bacon wins again.  (I ended up seeing Brad in the park a few months later and told him to go fuck himself.)  About a year later, Brad dies.  (I am so glad we had our talk before he passed way.  I would hate to have left anything unsaid.) 

Now, 2024, and Vargas looks like he is going to beat Bacon.  And fucking Ann Ashford endorses Don Bacon.  

I don't think it's going to matter much.  Nobody gave two shits about Ann when she was running.  It just pisses me off soooo much that I voted for conservative/centrist Democrats cycle after cycle on the generally accepted belief that a progressive stood no chance.  But, when it's the other way around, these fucking cunts feel they need to trip up the viable Democrats who could actually effect meaningful change.   

 

[Js1 82,455]

Another good district level poll - CO-08

Dem is up 46-42

This was the new Colorado district in 2022 - the Dem won it by 0.7.  PVI is EVEN and it's nearly 40% Hispanic.  Biden would have won it by 4.7% if it existed in 2020. 

[C-Man 26,545]

'Photos Show New York Congressman in Blackface as Michael Jackson'

Representative Mike Lawler, a Republican locked in a tight race for re-election, dressed as the pop star for Halloween as a college student in 2006.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/03/nyregion/lawler-blackface-michael-jackson.html?unlocked_article_code=1.PU4.1_GY.-LRsatDGMR5b&smid=url-share

[Js1 82,455]

 

All move in the Dem's favor

[Bullneck 18,618]

 

 

[Foosters 17,630]

so these two guys are gonna get sunk but when Donny puts on orange-face and freezes up we all just move on.

[RomaVicta 29,477]

On 10/3/2024 at 3:58 PM, C-Man said:

'Photos Show New York Congressman in Blackface as Michael Jackson'

Representative Mike Lawler, a Republican locked in a tight race for re-election, dressed as the pop star for Halloween as a college student in 2006.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/03/nyregion/lawler-blackface-michael-jackson.html?unlocked_article_code=1.PU4.1_GY.-LRsatDGMR5b&smid=url-share

It's not for me to decide what offends Black people. What they say goes.

My own opinion from looking at the picture is that the costume is not degrading. He's not dressed and made up like a minstrel from a minstrel show. I'm not sure you can even accurately call that "blackface."

Of course, the NYT goes to scholars and historians for context and possible reactions of other people.

I guess, in an ideal world, this story should say the guy dressed up as Michael Jackson and then let the picture explain what that looks like. Declaring it "blackface" is editorial and somewhat inflammatory. That's not the NYT's job.

Instead of waiting to see how the Black community might react, we get the editorialized report and a panel of academics. The reporters don't even need to leave the office. 

[Tuco 5,009]

It's not for me to decide what offends Black people. What they say goes.
My own opinion from looking at the picture is that the costume is not degrading. He's not dressed and made up like a minstrel from a minstrel show. I'm not sure you can even accurately call that "blackface."

Of course, the NYT goes to scholars and historians for context and possible reactions of other people.
I guess, in an ideal world, this story should say the guy dressed up as Michael Jackson and then let the picture explain what that looks like. Declaring it "blackface" is editorial and somewhat inflammatory. That's not the NYT's job.
Instead of waiting to see how the Black community might react, we get the editorialized report and a panel of academics. The reporters don't even need to leave the office. 

You can accurately describe it as blackface. That is not editorializing. Wearing dark makeup to look like a black person is wearing blackface. I agree there are various levels associated with blackface that affect how bad it is, as is the timing. I agree that this doesn’t seem egregious, particularly since any parody of Michael Jackson has little overlap with black stereotypes.

But, considering the historical association with blackface, it’s pretty much assumed offensive today, unless there is a very good reason.

[Tuco 5,009]

….and he should lose votes for it being a shitty costume. It’s a red jacket and blackface. Fucking lazy. If it wasn’t for the pose, he could have claimed it was Eddie Murphy. At least have a white glove or a young boy.

[Js1 82,455]

Only won by 1300 votes in 2022

 

[Js1 82,455]

Adam Schiff and Kamala effect

 

[quigley 1,150]

On 10/7/2024 at 3:49 PM, Tuco said:

….and he should lose votes for it being a shitty costume. It’s a red jacket and blackface. Fucking lazy. If it wasn’t for the pose, he could have claimed it was Eddie Murphy. At least have a white glove or a young boy.

Jeans?

[tx 3 putt 74,780]

 

[Js1 82,455]

 

 

[bolverk 28,892]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

Pretty good swing. In 2020, that district went 51% Trump / 47% Biden.

 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020-2016-and-2012

[Js1 82,455]

 

[SydneyCarton 47,113]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

So what does the house numbers look like assiming all this comes to pass? Is it a razor thin majority like the Rs have had? Or something slightly less asstastic?

[Js1 82,455]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So what does the house numbers look like assiming all this comes to pass? Is it a razor thin majority like the Rs have had? Or something slightly less asstastic?

 Considering the dearth of district polling - 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

[Js1 82,455]

Considering this is a tossup district by Cook Political:

This was redrawn after 2022 to R+1 and would have been 50.4 Biden, 48.8 Trump.  I wish they got the topline to see if Harris is doing better than +2

[Js1 82,455]

 

[Js1 82,455]

AZ-2 Poll has the Dem tied with the incumbent GOP rep, 42-42.  R+6 district that Crane won by 8 points in 2022

Harris trails by 9 (Biden would have lost the redrawn district by 7.9 points, so fairly in line with 2020)

Gallego up 5 in the district

[Js1 82,455]

This is not the case if Trump is winning PA

Drawn to be a Trump +4 district and Perry won it by 7.6 in 2022

[Js1 82,455]

47 is Porter’s district and the Dem has a drunk driving issue dragging him down 

 

[Js1 82,455]

@G650 just saw an Oct. Wason Center poll for VA-02 with Kiggans only up 1 point. Down from 5 points a month ago. Harris up 2 in the district (same as Biden 2020)

[G650 13,067]

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

@G650 just saw an Oct. Wason Center poll for VA-02 with Kiggans only up 1 point. Down from 5 points a month ago. Harris up 2 in the district (same as Biden 2020)

Yeah its gotten closer than I would have guessed. We just hosted their debate at Virginia Wesleyan last week, was very well attended. Still think it's gonna be Kiggans, but fingers crossed. Kiggans is a generally terrible person.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,281]

On 10/24/2024 at 4:32 AM, G650 said:

Yeah its gotten closer than I would have guessed. We just hosted their debate at Virginia Wesleyan last week, was very well attended. Still think it's gonna be Kiggans, but fingers crossed. Kiggans is a generally terrible person.

The lack of financial support from Trump and the RNC to congressional candidates ultimately has downstream impacts. Not to mention that gop candidates in purple districts can’t disagree with Trump on anything without facing the maga backlash.

decent potential for a blue wave for the House.

[Voldemort86 2,232]

Kamala being a presidential candidate from California should help down ballot in the California house races right?  She should out run Biden in her own state.

[Js1 82,455]

4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Kamala being a presidential candidate from California should help down ballot in the California house races right?  She should out run Biden in her own state.

GOP has already triaged like 2 House Republicans from CA and shifted a ton of resources to try and save a third (Steele)