Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[BamaATL 16,593]

Given today's info, just wanted to put out a few districts to perhaps keep an eye on in Georgia.  I think we will know these outcomes pretty quickly Tuesday.  All incumbents listed.

1.  GA 6th (Northeast Metro Atlanta) - Rich McCormack was drawn to be R+11

2.  GA 11th (Northwest Metro Atlanta) - Treason Tour Guide Barry Loudermilk R+11

3.  GA 12th (Augusta) - Rick Allen R+8

With congressional districts picking up a few points isn't unreasonable in general, if it's breaking much better than anyone thinks these are still long shots.  However, it is worth an early eye Tuesday evening.  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Given today's info, just wanted to put out a few districts to perhaps keep an eye on in Georgia.  I think we will know these outcomes pretty quickly Tuesday.  All incumbents listed.

1.  GA 6th (Northeast Metro Atlanta) - Rich McCormack was drawn to be R+11

2.  GA 11th (Northwest Metro Atlanta) - Treason Tour Guide Barry Loudermilk R+11

3.  GA 12th (Augusta) - Rick Allen R+8

With congressional districts picking up a few points isn't unreasonable in general, if it's breaking much better than anyone thinks these are still long shots.  However, it is worth an early eye Tuesday evening.  

Appreciate all the Georgia updates.  Hope you are right or close to right!

[Js1 87,281]

Selzer House races -

IA-01 - D+16

IA-02: R+3

IA-03: D+7

IA-04: R+16

Would be 2 flips

[Tuco 5,094]

Update on NE-2 (Vargas (D) vs. Bacon(R)), but mostly just venting.  

I can't find the ad that national Republican PAC ran during the Husker game this week, but it was the head of the police officer association talking about how Vargas "blamed the police for a violent riot" and led attacks on the cops.  I did find this one that features Douglas County Attorney Don Kleine saying the same thing, directly from the Bacon campaign.  

First of all, All Cops Are Bastards. That's the kind of mood this shit puts me in.  

Secondly, the history on this: during the 2020 George Floyd protests, I went to one of the Black Lives Matters protests.  It was along Dodge Street, the busy street in Omaha.  It was initially along the road, but the cops then put up barricades to close the road to traffic.  Protestors go out onto the carless road.  Cops then get into riot gear to clear the protestors, firing pepper balls at them when the highly predictable resistance to that order happens.  There is absolutely no indication any protestors attacked the cops, despite thousands of hand held cameras and bodycams. .  

Later that weekend, there is a protest downtown.  Vargas, and some other state senators, go down to observe the major political events happening in the region.  Cops fire pepper balls liberally, including one that catches Tony near the eye.  (I went down to help clean up the next day, and there were pepper ball marks 10 feet up on building walls; this was not selective use of non-lethal deterrent.) 

At the same downtown protest, a white bar owner shoots and kills a black protestor.  After a brief investigation, Don Kleine announces it is self defense and there will be no charges.  He doesn't even get the victim's name correct during the press conference. After the backlash, Kleine agrees to allow a special prosecutor/grand jury investigation, smugly confident that it will come to the same conclusion.  But, the special prosecutor finds evidence on the shooter's phone (which was never released) and the grand jury indicts the shooter.  Shooter ends up killing himself, thus the public never sees the evidence.  Don Kleine switches from Dem to Republican, and thens wins re-election as a Republican. 

Thirdly: Unfortunately, the "back the blue" shit in Omaha is effective.  So, I can see it working here.  But they also ran these types of ads last cycle, so hopefully some if it baked into Vargas's polling previously. 

[MrX 805]

Insane amount of money (For a CO race) being poured into the CO 8th race between Caraveo (D; incumbent) and Evans (R; fuckface). 
 

Polls have it a dead heat. Caraveo won the seat in 2022 against a different R fuckface 48.4/47.7. 
 

CO3 (Boobert’s old district that she almost lost in 2022) could also be in play for the Ds. I can’t find any polling though. 

Edited November 3 by MrX

[Bullneck 19,560]

[horncyclist 1,391]

How's the House looking? NY Times has a good dashboard showing what's outstanding and bucketing expected winners. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-house.html If you take the "Democrats expected to win easily" and "Democracts expected to win narrowly" races with a current dem lead, you get to a dem majority. It's surprising they could pull this off given Kamala's collapse but perhaps Trump/GOP's relative neglect of down ballet led to this outcome. This would be a massive silver lining if they pull it off and provide at least some check on Trump's power. 

[StassneyHorn 6,790]

So uhh, how's it going?

[Michael Knight 13,239]

1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

So uhh, how's it going?

[MrX 805]

CO8 too close to call - Caraveo (D) has a slight lead in her bid to retain. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

A site I look at has it at 217 R - 210 D.   It looks like senate will be 53 R- 47 D.

good news is trump won’t have big majorities. Pretty narrow on both sides.

Edited November 8 by Voldemort86

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,742]

On 3/24/2024 at 2:22 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Kay granger stepped down from appropriations committee.  Wish she would resign and leave the seat blank, but she’s sticking it out until the election.

Recent stories have detailed how Granger last voted in Congress back in June and is now living in a memory care unit. Still collecting a congressional salary because why not. I know we’ve had reps or senators that appear to have dementia but don’t recall one living in a dementia center while collecting federal paychecks. I guess the House could force a resignation but it’s now only a matter of days before she’s replaced and she may not have the capacity to resign of her free will.

most likely her staff is also collecting their salaries even though her offices in Ft Worth and DC were cleaned out in November.

https://dallasexpress.com/tarrant/exclusive-where-is-congresswoman-kay-granger/

[Longhorn_Fan68 34,108]

Some people need to go to jail over this

[Burt 4,142]

1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Some people need to go to jail over this

If anyone did, it'd somehow be democrats. 

[tx 3 putt 78,737]

On 12/21/2024 at 8:55 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Recent stories have detailed how Granger last voted in Congress back in June and is now living in a memory care unit. Still collecting a congressional salary because why not. I know we’ve had reps or senators that appear to have dementia but don’t recall one living in a dementia center while collecting federal paychecks. I guess the House could force a resignation but it’s now only a matter of days before she’s replaced and she may not have the capacity to resign of her free will.

most likely her staff is also collecting their salaries even though her offices in Ft Worth and DC were cleaned out in November.

https://dallasexpress.com/tarrant/exclusive-where-is-congresswoman-kay-granger/

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,742]

9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

 

Read that an anonymous gop representative told a reporter that gop leadership was well aware of her cognitive issues but the gop majority was too slim to let her resign. I assume they could have flown her to DC to vote if needed.

[Brisketexan 107,008]

Yall need to be nicer to Granger, she’s clearly the most intelligent GOP member of the House these days.