Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[BamaATL 16592]

Given today's info, just wanted to put out a few districts to perhaps keep an eye on in Georgia.  I think we will know these outcomes pretty quickly Tuesday.  All incumbents listed.

1.  GA 6th (Northeast Metro Atlanta) - Rich McCormack was drawn to be R+11

2.  GA 11th (Northwest Metro Atlanta) - Treason Tour Guide Barry Loudermilk R+11

3.  GA 12th (Augusta) - Rick Allen R+8

With congressional districts picking up a few points isn't unreasonable in general, if it's breaking much better than anyone thinks these are still long shots.  However, it is worth an early eye Tuesday evening.  

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Given today's info, just wanted to put out a few districts to perhaps keep an eye on in Georgia.  I think we will know these outcomes pretty quickly Tuesday.  All incumbents listed.

1.  GA 6th (Northeast Metro Atlanta) - Rich McCormack was drawn to be R+11

2.  GA 11th (Northwest Metro Atlanta) - Treason Tour Guide Barry Loudermilk R+11

3.  GA 12th (Augusta) - Rick Allen R+8

With congressional districts picking up a few points isn't unreasonable in general, if it's breaking much better than anyone thinks these are still long shots.  However, it is worth an early eye Tuesday evening.  

Appreciate all the Georgia updates.  Hope you are right or close to right!

[Js1 85056]

Selzer House races -

IA-01 - D+16

IA-02: R+3

IA-03: D+7

IA-04: R+16

Would be 2 flips

[Tuco 5076]

Update on NE-2 (Vargas (D) vs. Bacon(R)), but mostly just venting.  

I can't find the ad that national Republican PAC ran during the Husker game this week, but it was the head of the police officer association talking about how Vargas "blamed the police for a violent riot" and led attacks on the cops.  I did find this one that features Douglas County Attorney Don Kleine saying the same thing, directly from the Bacon campaign.  

First of all, All Cops Are Bastards. That's the kind of mood this shit puts me in.  

Secondly, the history on this: during the 2020 George Floyd protests, I went to one of the Black Lives Matters protests.  It was along Dodge Street, the busy street in Omaha.  It was initially along the road, but the cops then put up barricades to close the road to traffic.  Protestors go out onto the carless road.  Cops then get into riot gear to clear the protestors, firing pepper balls at them when the highly predictable resistance to that order happens.  There is absolutely no indication any protestors attacked the cops, despite thousands of hand held cameras and bodycams. .  

Later that weekend, there is a protest downtown.  Vargas, and some other state senators, go down to observe the major political events happening in the region.  Cops fire pepper balls liberally, including one that catches Tony near the eye.  (I went down to help clean up the next day, and there were pepper ball marks 10 feet up on building walls; this was not selective use of non-lethal deterrent.) 

At the same downtown protest, a white bar owner shoots and kills a black protestor.  After a brief investigation, Don Kleine announces it is self defense and there will be no charges.  He doesn't even get the victim's name correct during the press conference. After the backlash, Kleine agrees to allow a special prosecutor/grand jury investigation, smugly confident that it will come to the same conclusion.  But, the special prosecutor finds evidence on the shooter's phone (which was never released) and the grand jury indicts the shooter.  Shooter ends up killing himself, thus the public never sees the evidence.  Don Kleine switches from Dem to Republican, and thens wins re-election as a Republican. 

Thirdly: Unfortunately, the "back the blue" shit in Omaha is effective.  So, I can see it working here.  But they also ran these types of ads last cycle, so hopefully some if it baked into Vargas's polling previously. 

[MrX 708]

Insane amount of money (For a CO race) being poured into the CO 8th race between Caraveo (D; incumbent) and Evans (R; fuckface). 
 

Polls have it a dead heat. Caraveo won the seat in 2022 against a different R fuckface 48.4/47.7. 
 

CO3 (Boobert’s old district that she almost lost in 2022) could also be in play for the Ds. I can’t find any polling though. 

Edited November 3 by MrX

[Bullneck 18976]

[horncyclist 1384]

How's the House looking? NY Times has a good dashboard showing what's outstanding and bucketing expected winners. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-house.html If you take the "Democrats expected to win easily" and "Democracts expected to win narrowly" races with a current dem lead, you get to a dem majority. It's surprising they could pull this off given Kamala's collapse but perhaps Trump/GOP's relative neglect of down ballet led to this outcome. This would be a massive silver lining if they pull it off and provide at least some check on Trump's power. 

[StassneyHorn 6534]

So uhh, how's it going?

[Michael Knight 12863]

1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

So uhh, how's it going?

[MrX 708]

CO8 too close to call - Caraveo (D) has a slight lead in her bid to retain. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

A site I look at has it at 217 R - 210 D.   It looks like senate will be 53 R- 47 D.

good news is trump won’t have big majorities. Pretty narrow on both sides.

Edited Friday at 09:36 AM by Voldemort86