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Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

bolverk

By bolverk
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tx 3 putt
tx 3 putt
Chuckie Finster
Chuckie Finster

**gestures broadly at basically every Republican running for office in November**

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Gatorubet

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11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

the us 5th is only there to further the Republican Party's agenda and piss all over non white voters every chance they get

I disagree.  They are also there to relieve law enforcement from any liability for abusing and killing citizens. 

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bolverk

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40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

As of June from Texas tribune:

Where does the Texas redistricting case stand?

The Texas redistricting case remains delayed, with the state working to keep secret many of the private communications lawmakers engaged in while drawing new maps.

The federal three-judge panel considering the case canceled a September 2022 trial a month before it was set to begin after disputes over discovery left both the state and the various plaintiff groups questioning whether they’d have enough time to prepare to make their cases in a federal courtroom in El Paso.

At issue are subpoenas and motions to compel certain documents from legislators and third parties. The state and the plaintiffs are also quarreling over lawmakers’ assertions during depositions of what’s known as legislative privilege, which allows legislators to keep secret their communications on policy along with their “thoughts and mental impressions.”

The Texas Tribune thanks its sponsors. Become one.

Those disputes have been further complicated — and delayed — by legal wrangling over discovery in a separate lawsuit challenging the sweeping voting law, known as Senate Bill 1, that lawmakers passed in 2021. In that case, state legislators withheld certain materials, also citing legislative privilege, and then turned to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals when a district judge largely rejected their privilege claims and ordered them to hand over about 220 documents.

The 5th Circuit’s ruling, allowing lawmakers to keep those documents hidden, didn’t come until last month.

The plaintiffs in the redistricting case now plan to file briefs to determine how much the 5th Circuit’s ruling should affect their discovery. There are still more than 10 separate pending motions related to discovery in the case.

When will the case be decided?

It’s impossible to know at this point. In fact, the litigation over the last round of redistricting is ongoing with the parties still hashing it out over attorney’s fees in the long-winding case.

In the current litigation, it’s unclear how long it will take for the appeals and pending motions over discovery to be dealt with. The three-judge panel has yet to reschedule a trial, which would very likely stretch over several weeks. The court’s decision wouldn’t come for several months after that. And that decision would likely be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

By then, Texas could very well be deep into the second election cycle under challenged maps that could later be found discriminatory.

Distract, delay, deflect for 10 years. Oops! It's time for a new Census, and we're still in charge of drawing the map!

Jesus

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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17 hours ago, bolverk said:

Distract, delay, deflect for 10 years. Oops! It's time for a new Census, and we're still in charge of drawing the map!

Jesus

Same tactic they’ve been doing ever since Obama has been in office. 

Democrat :   We need to get this done. This done and this done.

republican:  ok….. let’s talk about it and vote after recess.

 

after recess and everyone comes back 

democrats: hey we need to vote on this.

republicans:  let’s wait until the new year and surprise Americans with a bill that inspires hope and change that they voted for.

 

after new year 

democrats :  let’s vote on that bill

Republicans:  something came up. We need to debate “ something against minorities”

that’s all they do when they don’t have power is play “rope a dope” until the time on the clock runs out or they get power in the situation then the issue conveniently disappears and isn’t talked about or debated anymore at all.

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Js1

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They really just need to draw another black district around Atlanta after they got rid of one.  They turned GA-06 into a white Trump district and forced McBath to run in GA-07 against Bordeaux.  This would likely turn Georgia into an 8 R - 6D map. 

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Js1

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The maps are not struck down in their entirety but rather just specific districts that violate the VRA. The court is explicitly requiring the creation of a new majority Black Congressional district, 2 additional Senate districts, and 5 additional House districts. The struck districts are GA-03/06/11/13/14, SD-10/16/17/25/28/30/34/35/43/44, and HD-61/64/74/78/117/133/142/143/145/147/149

 

That is Drew Ferguson (GA-03), Rich McCormick (GA-06), Barry Loudermilk (GA-11), David Scott (GA-13) and Marge (GA-14) for whose districts got struck to make the new majority black Congressional district. 

This puts the Georgia Legislature "in play" for the first time this millennium - Dems need 12 to flip the GA House (court says they have to draw 5 more Dem districts) and 5 to flip the Senate (court says they have to draw 2 more majority black districts)

Edited by Js1
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Nice Guy Eddie

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36 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

 

NC went 7-7 GOP/Dem for their 14 House seats in 2022. Can't have that. The new map was drawn so the expected outcome is 10-3 with 1 competitive district.

Not to mention that NC was 50%-48.6% for Trump over Biden.  This state is purple but the GOP isn't going to let that happen again. 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Js1

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5 minutes ago, Underdog said:

So does a Federal judge look at what NC has done, much like Georgia?  Marc Elias on line-1? 

They will likely sue.  They did some tinkering with NC-01, which is a majority black, which means VRA Section 2 lawsuit a la Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina and Louisiana. 

Quote

After the maps were unveiled last week, attorney Marc Elias, whose law group successfully challenged the state’s last map, floated the possibility of a Voting Rights Act lawsuit in response.

 

Edited by Js1
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Js1

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Kemp schedules the redistricting special session for November 29.  The deadline is December 8.  I am very surprised it was that quick.

Either the Georgia GOP knows it won't win a fight with SCOTUS over a VRA Section 2 issue and will just do what it was told to do or they'll do the Alabama "half-ass attempt to meet the requirements," get sued and got pee-pee whacked by SCOTUS and it ends up in someone else's hands.

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5908

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Republicans keep moving the goal posts all over the place.  I listen to Dems state now we got them, and the officials walk over and move the goal posts back 30 yards and sideways.  Meanwhile, we're lamenting that the posts are no longer lined up for a 55 yard kick that by no means is certain, but has a chance.  And the worst part is that we're now lamenting and jonesing for the posts to be moved back to the 55 yard distance.   Democracy shouldn't be run like a corrupt game of 3-card monte. 

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Voldemort86

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6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Kemp schedules the redistricting special session for November 29.  The deadline is December 8.  I am very surprised it was that quick.

Either the Georgia GOP knows it won't win a fight with SCOTUS over a VRA Section 2 issue and will just do what it was told to do or they'll do the Alabama "half-ass attempt to meet the requirements," get sued and got pee-pee whacked by SCOTUS and it ends up in someone else's hands.

I like that Raffensperger is popular. Hell I’d vote the guy myself, but it freaking sucks that Kemp is popular.  Kemp is responsible for all sorts of shenanigans like passing laws making it illegal to give people water / food while waiting in line to vote or sending 100 voting machines to Republican counties and just 2 or 3 to counties that are predominantly minority.

I fear Kemp could be the “Rick Scott” of Georgia.  First winning governor elections then going to the senate. Seems like Rick Scott will never go away. Kemp might not either.

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BamaATL

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50 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I like that Raffensperger is popular. Hell I’d vote the guy myself, but it freaking sucks that Kemp is popular.  Kemp is responsible for all sorts of shenanigans like passing laws making it illegal to give people water / food while waiting in line to vote or sending 100 voting machines to Republican counties and just 2 or 3 to counties that are predominantly minority.

I fear Kemp could be the “Rick Scott” of Georgia.  First winning governor elections then going to the senate. Seems like Rick Scott will never go away. Kemp might not either.

Just because Raffensperger did one thing right doesn't make him a good guy.  He deserves credit for doing the right thing on the election, but don't confuse that with his politics.  

I am curious to see what they do with the district map, I get the feeling that the existing 11th and 14th district will be combined out of all this, and the new district will be localized to Savannah (which should be an easy Democrat win).  Currently the 11th is the district I am in, with Barry Loudermilk, insurrection tour guide, as our Congressman.  The 14th is more infamous, being that it boasts MTG.  The reason I think this is a real possibility is the demographic make up and trends of the 11th, which is consistently trending towards blue (albeit below 50%).  The totality of the percentage didn't move much, but voter participation did in the 11th, and given age demographics that bodes well for us.  Combining these two districts would negate the demographic changes.  The other aspect would be to get rid of MTG, which state Republicans would be glad to do.  

In any event, Dems will pick up at least one seat in Georgia next year, just like Alabama.  

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

Kemp schedules the redistricting special session for November 29.  The deadline is December 8.  I am very surprised it was that quick

If the Republicans don't make a map quickly they run the risk of having the courts more or less dictate it to them, that's why this is happening so quickly.  They also can't put forth something ridiculous because they again run the risk of having the courts pick it.  

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SydneyCarton

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11 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I like that Raffensperger is popular. Hell I’d vote the guy myself, but it freaking sucks that Kemp is popular.  Kemp is responsible for all sorts of shenanigans like passing laws making it illegal to give people water / food while waiting in line to vote or sending 100 voting machines to Republican counties and just 2 or 3 to counties that are predominantly minority.

I fear Kemp could be the “Rick Scott” of Georgia.  First winning governor elections then going to the senate. Seems like Rick Scott will never go away. Kemp might not either.

He's not going anywhere, except he's going to run for President. 

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Js1

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10 hours ago, BamaATL said:

If the Republicans don't make a map quickly they run the risk of having the courts more or less dictate it to them, that's why this is happening so quickly.  They also can't put forth something ridiculous because they again run the risk of having the courts pick it.  

Yes I’m guessing they saw what happened in Alabama and the oral arguments for the SC maps and know they have to comply or it will end up out of their hands 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

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The problem with the state legislatures and these district maps is that there is no punishment for outlandish attempts. The worst case for the state legislatures is that a fair map is drawn so there is no incentive in drawing a fair map. 

I feel like if the state is found to have egregiously drawn an unfair map, they should lose the right to draw any new maps for 10-20 years. Punish the majority party for the shady shit they're trying. And I'm cool with this for either party. 

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Js1

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Earl Blumenauer, who has been in Congress since 1997, is retiring. The world will miss his bow ties and love of cycling as a means of transportation 

image.thumb.jpeg.c70ef78cbd82605bf53c51dabe25afdd.jpeg
 

Rep Jayapal’s sister is resigning her Multnomah county commissioner seat in Oregon to run for this seat. 

D+22. Not a flip or in danger, but some new (progressive) blood 

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Js1

Js1 85056

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16 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Time to boot this thing up again.

 

There’s been a few retirements at the end of the week. Most seem to be a bunch of Republicans who are not trying to move up to a new office. Usually a good sign the House GOP does not foresee a majority in 2025

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BamaATL

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I knew about Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina and the racial gerrymandering issues, but I was unaware that Republicans are going to also lose a seat in Louisiana as well.  Apparently they have until early January to draw one themselves that works or the court will.  

Between Alabama, Georgia, and now Louisiana, those are 3 seats we should pick up.  I think North Carolina is a gonna fuck and around and find out.  

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Voldemort86

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5 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I knew about Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina and the racial gerrymandering issues, but I was unaware that Republicans are going to also lose a seat in Louisiana as well.  Apparently they have until early January to draw one themselves that works or the court will.  

Between Alabama, Georgia, and now Louisiana, those are 3 seats we should pick up.  I think North Carolina is a gonna fuck and around and find out.  

The Republican strategy for this is sickening.  Well I guess  it’s their strategy for nearly everything they don’t like.  They say “let’s talk about it”, when they finally get in a room, they do all they can to make sure there’s a stalemate, and then they try to bring the courts attention to something else. Whenever they try to bring it up again,  the republicans say “ what about…… we gotta fix….. let’s do the maps after……..”.

it’s like the GOP is Muhammad Ali and they’re essentially playing “rope a dope” for 10 years until the next map comes out and the process repeats.

These fuckers always talk about supporting “law and order”. Well….let’s follow the damn law as written and fix these maps.

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BamaATL

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3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The Republican strategy for this is sickening.  Well I guess  it’s their strategy for nearly everything they don’t like.  They say “let’s talk about it”, when they finally get in a room, they do all they can to make sure there’s a stalemate, and then they try to bring the courts attention to something else. Whenever they try to bring it up again,  the republicans say “ what about…… we gotta fix….. let’s do the maps after……..”.

it’s like the GOP is Muhammad Ali and they’re essentially playing “rope a dope” for 10 years until the next map comes out and the process repeats.

These fuckers always talk about supporting “law and order”. Well….let’s follow the damn law as written and fix these maps.

I honestly think state Republicans were surprised that the Supreme Court struck down racial gerrymandering.  I would also have to admit to being surprised at this development from this Court stacked with right wing loonies.  In any event, their decision has a good potential for more equitable representation, particularly in the south, as we are seeing.  Prior to this decision, this was a common place game politically played to suppress minority vote.  In the end, I have to give credit to the Court for righting a wrong (and yes that such an odd thing to think about this Court).  

Republicans have two choices, come up with ridiculous maps that will be laughed out of court (which is partially how we have arrived here) and leave it to the courts to decide, or limit the political damage the best they can with something reasonable.  I suspect they will choose the latter, because at least it gives them some level of choice on protectionism in certain districts.  Either way, all this stands to be a good pick up of representation for minorities, and ultimately everyone rightfully believing they have an equitable voice in our democracy is good thing.  

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Voldemort86

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19 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I honestly think state Republicans were surprised that the Supreme Court struck down racial gerrymandering.  I would also have to admit to being surprised at this development from this Court stacked with right wing loonies.  In any event, their decision has a good potential for more equitable representation, particularly in the south, as we are seeing.  Prior to this decision, this was a common place game politically played to suppress minority vote.  In the end, I have to give credit to the Court for righting a wrong (and yes that such an odd thing to think about this Court).  

Republicans have two choices, come up with ridiculous maps that will be laughed out of court (which is partially how we have arrived here) and leave it to the courts to decide, or limit the political damage the best they can with something reasonable.  I suspect they will choose the latter, because at least it gives them some level of choice on protectionism in certain districts.  Either way, all this stands to be a good pick up of representation for minorities, and ultimately everyone rightfully believing they have an equitable voice in our democracy is good thing.  

Republicans always choose party over country. If black people make up 40% of a state, then they clearly should receive 2 seats in a state that has 5 seats total. Without the minorities, the state would only have 3 seats to divvy up.  It’s not a hard concept to understand. The GOP is just crazy power hungry.

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BamaATL

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14 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Republicans always choose party over country. If black people make up 40% of a state, then they clearly should receive 2 seats in a state that has 5 seats total. Without the minorities, the state would only have 3 seats to divvy up.  It’s not a hard concept to understand. The GOP is just crazy power hungry.

That's entirely true, but it's also politics, rightly or wrongly, both parties will do their best to maximize seats.  While it's currently accurate to portray this as solely a Republican issue, it's not long ago that these would have been Dixiecrats doing this.  

I'm just glad that its been ruled that gerrymandering on the basis of race has been ruled against and that a precedent has been set.  From now until the time someone can come up with a legal argument that somehow favors discrimination (good grief I hope that's never a thing), it's unconstitutional.  Sometimes we need to celebrate wins, even when they are unexpected, which to me this qualifies.  

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atomheartbevo

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Posted
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1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Republicans always choose party over country. If black people make up 40% of a state, then they clearly should receive 2 seats in a state that has 5 seats total. Without the minorities, the state would only have 3 seats to divvy up.  It’s not a hard concept to understand. The GOP is just crazy power hungry.

3 seats vs 5 seats.....something...something..3..something...5...something....compromise.

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