Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[Pescado_Rojo 19,327]

21 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’d celebrate, but the GOP will probably just find someone worse than them.

All three of those districts are R+15 at minimum, so you're probably right. 

I wonder if John Carter will run again in TX31. He'll be 83 by Nov '24. He didn't have a challenger in 22, and so far no one has filed to run against him next year. Seems like a good time to announce his retirement and endorse one of his grandkids or something. 

[Js1 85,056]

Dude just reverse uno’d himself

 

[Ghost of LL 15,348]

39 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dude just reverse uno’d himself

 

[Js1 85,056]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

His family likes him better in DC than only in Austin for 6 months every other year 😂

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/15/politics/eugene-vindman-virginia-congress-spanberger/index.html

Quote

Eugene Vindman, the twin brother of retired US Army Col. Alexander Vindman– one of the high-profile witnesses during former President Donald Trump’s first impeachment – is set to announce plans to run for Congress, according to a source familiar with his plans.

Vindman will be looking to succeed Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The third-term Democrat announced earlier this week that she was running for Virginia governor in 2025 and would not be pursuing reelection to her House seat next year.

 

[Js1 85,056]

NY Supreme Court held a hearing today on whether to redistrict again or not. The 3 justices who opposed thee Hochulmander still oppose it. The 3 who supported it still support it. The swing will be the new Justice who Hochul appointed (seemingly should be pro-Hochulmander)

[Voldemort86 2,259]

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

NY Supreme Court held a hearing today on whether to redistrict again or not. The 3 justices who opposed thee Hochulmander still oppose it. The 3 who supported it still support it. The swing will be the new Justice who Hochul appointed (seemingly should be pro-Hochulmander)

Damn…. When do we get an official vote?  

[Js1 85,056]

Dan Kildee (MI-08) retiring
George Anthony Devolder Kitara Santos (NY-03) not running for re-election (duh)

Total as of November 16:

17 Dems not seeking re-election (6 retirements, 9 running for Senate, 1 running for governor, 1 running for statewide office)
10 GOP not seeking re-election (7 retirements, 2 running for Senate, 1 running for statewide office)

[Pescado_Rojo 19,327]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dan Kildee (MI-08) retiring
George Anthony Devolder Kitara Santos (NY-03) not running for re-election (duh)

Total as of November 16:

17 Dems not seeking re-election (6 retirements, 9 running for Senate, 1 running for governor, 1 running for statewide office)
10 GOP not seeking re-election (7 retirements, 2 running for Senate, 1 running for statewide office)

How many of those seats are competitive? NY-03 and what others? 

[Js1 85,056]

24 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

How many of those seats are competitive? NY-03 and what others? 

Kildee’s Michigan seat and Spanberger’s VA seat will be competitive, as will Weston’s. Katie Porter’s as well 

Will be a lot of pressure on the GOP members in Biden seats to stay and try to use incumbency to hold them. 

[Js1 85,056]

Tony Cardenas (CA-29) is the latest retirement announcement.

He's only 60, but this is a D+26 district. He has endorsed 49-year old Assemblywoman Luz Rivas (D-North Hollywood)

[HRSchenker 2,257]

On 11/13/2023 at 2:48 PM, Js1 said:

Michael Burgess joins Kay Granger in the Texas House delegation retirements 

Something I find very curious. Why would you spend $78,000 on political ads and then a month later decide to retire at the end of your term?

https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?committee_id=C00372532&two_year_transaction_period=2024&data_type=processed&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[pacman 7,309]

This should fit in nicely with the voter suppression tactics of the dar right extremists..

[WhatTheBuck 28,700]

20 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

Something I find very curious. Why would you spend $78,000 on political ads and then a month later decide to retire at the end of your term?

https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?committee_id=C00372532&two_year_transaction_period=2024&data_type=processed&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Which one of your family members are you paying to run the ads?

[Js1 85,056]

2 more:

CA-16 Anna Eshoo (retiring) - 80 years old
OH-06 Bill Johnson (not running again) - being appointed President of Youngstown State, may resign early

Both are safe seats (CA-16 blue, OH-06 red)

[Js1 85,056]

 

 

[Js1 85,056]

Feb 13 special election to replace Santos (technically it is a 2024 House race!)

[TheStoicPaisano 9,904]

Kevin McCarthy is taking his ball and going home, effective EOY. 
 

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by TheStoicPaisano

[Underdog 28,437]

Memories
Light the corners of my mind
Misty watercolor memories
Of the way we were

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,391]

McCarthy is a POS but he's not as bad as Boebert or MTG. And there is a decent chance that is the type of candidate that will replace him. Race to the bottom.

[Js1 85,056]

LMAO - his dream was to be Speaker, he got the gavel after 15 rounds, lost it in the same year and then quit completely. 

What a 2023 for Kevin. 

Also what a sad 2024 for the GOP California reps in Biden districts - Duarte, Valadao, Garcia, Calvert and Steel.  Their best fundraiser, and their state GOP leader, just took his ball and went home. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Js1

[BamaATL 16,592]

20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LMAO - his dream was to be Speaker, he got the gavel after 15 rounds, lost it in the same year and then quit completely. 

What a 2023 for Kevin. 

Also what a sad 2024 for the GOP California reps in Biden districts - Duarte, Valadao, Garcia, Calvert and Steel.  Their best fundraiser, and their state GOP leader, just took his ball and went home. 

Hahahahahahahahaha!

Fuck that guy.  

[Michael Knight 12,863]

1 hour ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

Kevin McCarthy is taking his ball and going home, effective EOY. 
 

 

[Wally Fairway 5,517]

I hope his speach ends something like, only after going Full Elon and telling everyone to fuck themselves

[Underdog 28,437]

I found this way too funny for my own good. 

 

[Js1 85,056]

Anyone know what happened to these 3?

[Satchel 6,908]

This guy could be gone too, leaving the GOP with a one vote cushion in the House:

 

With little forewarning, YSU's trustees selected Congressman Bill Johnson — one of five Ohio Republican congressmen to back a bogus Texas lawsuit seeking to invalidate millions of legitimate votes in the 2020 election — as the university's new president.

[Underdog 28,437]

How it started with McCarthy... 

McCarthy today... 

 

[Brisketexan 104,465]

1 minute ago, Underdog said:

How it started with McCarthy... 

McCarthy today... 

 

Corey Hart reference gets you some 80s-riffic posrep.

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

Does Kevin do this if he thinks Republicans keep control of the House next year?  Or is he in “fuck you pay me” mode and trying to tank the current Republican majority and flip it to the Dems?

whynotboth.gif

[Underdog 28,437]

Serving trump in another manner... 

 

[Wally Fairway 5,517]

3 hours ago, Underdog said:

I found this way too funny for my own good. 

 

The joke is on Gaetz-the-clown, as he doesn't even realize that his actions could be the trigger to making the Repubicans the minority party. Once all the moves, retirements, etc take effect in January.
And he will be the laughing stock when Hakeem Jefferies is seated as speaker.

[Js1 85,056]

Quote

Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — who announced today that he's leaving Congress at the end of the year — is already hinting at a revenge tour.

• Why it matters: Since his short-lived speakership ended in October, McCarthy has repeatedly taken aim at the eight Republicans who voted to oust him.

The California Republican, known as a master fundraiser, called himself a "free agent" who's now able to endorse primary candidates.

• McCarthy wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed today that he "will continue to recruit our country's best and brightest to run for elected office."
• One McCarthy critic told Axios last month that the former speaker will likely use millions in PAC funds to meddle in the races of his GOP foes.

https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-pm

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Not really political talk, but I loved it when the Adelson family bought a huge chunk of the Dallas mavericks. Hopefully a sign that they’re not focusing on politics as much anymore.

the Adelsons bank rolled the GOP in the 2000’s and 2010’s. They seem to be having trouble replacing their money.

[WhatTheBuck 28,700]

4 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

The joke is on Gaetz-the-clown, as he doesn't even realize that his actions could be the trigger to making the Repubicans the minority party. Once all the moves, retirements, etc take effect in January.
And he will be the laughing stock when Hakeem Jefferies is seated as speaker.

He’ll raise a shit-ton of money off of it and book a lot of face time on Fox News. 

[Ghost of LL 15,348]

Yeah, so the GQP now has a one-vote majority?  Or is it two votes?

Beyond running the risk of losing the majority if they have a retirement or death (or another expulsion), it enables any single member to flip the majority by switching parties.  And for a few of them in Biden districts, that may be pretty appealing.

[Pods 7,522]

5 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah, so the GQP now has a one-vote majority?  Or is it two votes?

Beyond running the risk of losing the majority if they have a retirement or death (or another expulsion), it enables any single member to flip the majority by switching parties.  And for a few of them in Biden districts, that may be pretty appealing.

Exactly. Trump is going to have negative coat tails in those districts. It'll be so bad, we'll have to invent a term for it.

Since coat tails cover the ass, maybe a term for something that hangs down in the front...  

Fupa tails?

I'm open to suggestions. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

7 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah, so the GQP now has a one-vote majority?  Or is it two votes?

Beyond running the risk of losing the majority if they have a retirement or death (or another expulsion), it enables any single member to flip the majority by switching parties.  And for a few of them in Biden districts, that may be pretty appealing.

With “hopefully” New York, Louisiana, and Wisconsin redistricting still to come. I hope we will be favored to win the house back in 2024. 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

7 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah, so the GQP now has a one-vote majority?  Or is it two votes?

Beyond running the risk of losing the majority if they have a retirement or death (or another expulsion), it enables any single member to flip the majority by switching parties.  And for a few of them in Biden districts, that may be pretty appealing.

Does somebody have the head of lettuce vs Mike Johnson challenge going?

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

3 hours ago, Pods said:

negative coat tails

Oh it's worse

ETTD

Everything Trump Touches Dies

This is known. His endorsement means they are certified loony. An instant turn off for normie indie regular people that don't make the effort to go to the GOP primary.

So his slime trail of flop sweat anoints a candidate. They lose. He distances. Rinse and repeat.

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by cactusflinthead
Active not past

[bolverk 29,360]

4 hours ago, Pods said:

Exactly. Trump is going to have negative coat tails in those districts. It'll be so bad, we'll have to invent a term for it.

Since coat tails cover the ass, maybe a term for something that hangs down in the front...  

Fupa tails?

I'm open to suggestions. 

Long coattails hang off the ass, drag on the floor, and carry lessers behind a lead candidate to continue on. So, I'd imagine the opposite of that would be those who'd crawl up his ass and die as politicians.

Maybe we call them Trump's gerbils?

ETTD

Edited December 8, 2023 by bolverk

[Pods 7,522]

13 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Long coattails hang of the ass, drag on the floor, and carry lessers behind a lead candidate to continue on. So, I'd imagine the opposite of that would be those who'd crawl up his ass and die as politicians.

I had that in mind, but I wasn't clear.

Normally long coat tails drags the other candidates along, I was thinking of Trump's effect in these districts as a long fupa that falls under their feet, trips them up and then forces them up and under the fupa, where any future political ambitions are asphyxiated, then their husk of a corpse is discarded.

I should have stated it as Trump has long fupatails. 

I like the gerbils one too. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Pods

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

I'll take her over SJL

 

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

I think she's right. I saw someone kinda bemoan the fact that they were tired of voting against someone instead of for someone.

All I can say is get used to it and lean in. What do you think the GOP has been doing since Nixon? They vote against... everything. 

Well, that cuts both ways. Men don't seem to grasp just how pissed off the women are. They aren't going to the polls to vote for someone. They are going to vote against the ones that are trying to take away from their rights.

Get on the angry bus. 

[Js1 85,056]

7 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

I think she's right. I saw someone kinda bemoan the fact that they were tired of voting against someone instead of for someone.

All I can say is get used to it and lean in. What do you think the GOP has been doing since Nixon? They vote against... everything. 

Well, that cuts both ways. Men don't seem to grasp just how pissed off the women are. They aren't going to the polls to vote for someone. They are going to vote against the ones that are trying to take away from their rights.

Get on the angry bus. 

Why does it have to be voting for someone or against someone

Vote for your rights.  

[cactusflinthead 27,593]

Well yeah but that's not what gets them to the polls. It would be great if we viewed government as a collective that formed to guarantee our mutual rights but it's not what we have. Anger and fear aren't the nicest things to motivate action, but they are some of the most effective. 

I'd like it a lot more if we could argue policy and ideas, but you need a faithful opposition to do so and that's been gone a long time. The Democrats main problem is acting as if it were still an arena of competing actors acting in good faith.

You know that isn't the case.

If anger gets the complacent non-voting potential Dems out to the polls then fire up the outrage machine and remind them who took away those rights.

[Js1 85,056]

We may be getting a decision on the NY redistricting case today.

Texas filing deadline passed yesterday - Dems are not fielding candidates in TX-01, 05, 11, 13, 19, 21, 25 or 36. They are all double digit Trump districts - the least Trumpy is R+13. 

Nathaniel Moran
Lance Gooden
August Pfluger
Jodey Arrington
Chip Roy
Roger Williams
Brian Babin

Meanwhile, in CA-20, McCarthy's now open seat: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2023/12/12/a-chaotic-capper-to-mccarthys-2023-00131247

Vince Fong, McCarthy's former district director, opted not to run.  Then he changed his mind. But he had already declared and filed to run for re-election to his Assembly seat. 

Quote

An orderly torch-passing is easier said than done. Fong had already declared he was running for reelection for Assembly, and California law does not allow candidates to appear on the same ballot twice for different jobs. It also prohibits contenders from dropping out of a race after the filing deadline closes, which for incumbents like Fong was last Friday.

The California Secretary of State was unequivocal, telling POLITICO Monday evening that “no withdrawal is allowed, and a person cannot run for more than one office in the same election.”

Still, Fong spent the day proceeding like any other congressional candidate. He submitted his paperwork on Monday, which, per his social media, was accepted by Kern County. But this foray into uncharted territory will almost certainly invite a legal challenge from a rival.

 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

Hell yes