Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[Js1 85056]

Hochulmander time! They can draw a 22-4 map that wipes out what NC and Florida did. The current delegation is 15-10-1

Edited December 12, 2023 by Js1

[BamaATL 16592]

Georgia Republicans also submitted their map yesterday, it's gonna get shot down in court as well.  

[hornmpa96 2598]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Hochulmander time! They can draw a 22-4 map that wipes out what NC and Florida did. The current delegation is 15-10-1

I would love to see it but how does a 22-4 map stand up against NY’a prohibition on partisan gerrymandering?

[WhatTheBuck 28700]

From Robert Reich. Not sure where else to put this. Not sure there are many on this list who would take the threat seriously. It’s just typical b.s. from the GQP and few, if any, are likely to suffer for it. But one can hope since it will only take a few to fall in order for the Dems to retake the House.

https://www.instagram.com/p/C0z9RiYvW2U/

[Huckleberry 32685]

So what effect does the Wisconsin SC decision striking their maps probably have? Calling all politics nerds. 

[BamaATL 16592]

7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

So what effect does the Wisconsin SC decision striking their maps probably have? Calling all politics nerds. 

My understanding is a flip on 1 district R to D, and 1 more likely to be far more competitive.  Without a new map to reference it's hard to completely know, but it's at least one pick up.  

[Js1 85056]

52 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

So what effect does the Wisconsin SC decision striking their maps probably have? Calling all politics nerds. 

Pretty sure it was only the state legislative districts in this lawsuit. Should pretty much dismantle state GOP from getting near supermajorities in the state legislature 

[Huckleberry 32685]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Pretty sure it was only the state legislative districts in this lawsuit. Should pretty much dismantle state GOP from getting near supermajorities in the state legislature 

Ah, okay. But that would prevent absurdly gerrymandered congressional maps going forward. 

[BamaATL 16592]

Turn's out attending purity balls and monitoring your porn intake with your son doesn't bring in the dollars

https://www.newsweek.com/mike-johnson-fundraising-rnc-donations-kevin-mccarthy-1855014

RNC cash at $9.1 million end of the year

For reference

2021 - $65 million

2020 - $58 million

2019 - $63 million

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

RNC cash at $9.1 million end of the year

Interesting that it’s at the end of a year heading into an election year.  Should be much higher.  It’s almost like Republican donors are either not very enthusiastic about the candidates, not very angry/upset at the Dems, or they are saving their money for a future election year.  Or all three.

[Gatorubet 30064]

Love me the work put in by the Swifties…

[Js1 85056]

Boobert is switching from CO-03 to CO-04 (Buck, retiring) bc it’s more favorable. 

[Gatorubet 30064]

22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Boobert is switching from CO-03 to CO-04 (Buck, retiring) bc it’s more favorable. 

“The job I did in CO-03 was so good that I will lose the election if I try to run again, so I have to go to CO-04 to see if I can grift some people who don’t know me as well. “

[Brisketexan 104465]

“The job I did in CO-03 was so good that I will lose the election if I try to run again, so I have to go to CO-04 to see if I can grift some people who don’t know me as well. “

And. It. Will. Work.
The GQP has only two types of people in it: conmen, and marks. The 4th is full of marks.

[cactusflinthead 27593]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The GQP

All right good sir it's time to discuss this again. Over here in the CR where BP can't handle the lunacy.

Why did you turn? Was it about the same time as Rick Wilson? 

I'd like to hear him tell it again but iirc it was the speech about Mexico and how he knew at that point it was fucked. Trump was going to tap into...the dark energy. Openly. Atwater was truly dead. 

I'm asking because that'll help if we can keep, as Wilson calls it, cracking off a few wedges of voters at a time. Go look around at the last few elections. R+ districts are flipping. 

Because of people like you. Long term GOP voters that are flat out disgusted with what was their party becoming the GQP. You and others like you stopped participating in the primaries and being a willing and energetic volunteer. Rick Wilson got fucking pissed off and figured out he could still stay in the game. He is a formidable opponent. They hate him. I don't know who they hate more, dirty fucking libs or the RINOS that have turned on them.

Anyhow I am still in it. I remember when CR was definitely center right with some farther to right than others. I mean one of the very first threads in here was crowing at Hilary.

Where are they now? 

You and @TwiceHorn are still here. I remember getting sideways with Twice about some political shit at one point years ago. Now, we are on the same side more often than not. 

All I'm looking at is the fact that you and others like you are not voting like you used to. 

[TwiceHorn 31184]

19 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

All right good sir it's time to discuss this again. Over here in the CR where BP can't handle the lunacy.

Why did you turn? Was it about the same time as Rick Wilson? 

I'd like to hear him tell it again but iirc it was the speech about Mexico and how he knew at that point it was fucked. Trump was going to tap into...the dark energy. Openly. Atwater was truly dead. 

I'm asking because that'll help if we can keep, as Wilson calls it, cracking off a few wedges of voters at a time. Go look around at the last few elections. R+ districts are flipping. 

Because of people like you. Long term GOP voters that are flat out disgusted with what was their party becoming the GQP. You and others like you stopped participating in the primaries and being a willing and energetic volunteer. Rick Wilson got fucking pissed off and figured out he could still stay in the game. He is a formidable opponent. They hate him. I don't know who they hate more, dirty fucking libs or the RINOS that have turned on them.

Anyhow I am still in it. I remember when CR was definitely center right with some farther to right than others. I mean one of the very first threads in here was crowing at Hilary.

Where are they now? 

You and @TwiceHorn are still here. I remember getting sideways with Twice about some political shit at one point years ago. Now, we are on the same side more often than not. 

All I'm looking at is the fact that you and others like you are not voting like you used to. 

Speaking for myself. I have long been uncomfortable with the social aspects of "conservatism," although I do believe we as a nation have lost a lot of community and family sensibility.  To me, though, that does not mean man+woman+child in some Christian household.  It sure as hell doesn't mean demonizing people that are different.

I have been somewhat politically disengaged and haven't closely examined a lot of policies like I have been the last few years.  I accepted things that didn't bear much scrutiny in many cases.  I also tended to believe that among electable right- and left-wing politicians, there wasn't much practical difference.

One thing I have noticed is that conservatives especially seem overly concerned with "incentives."  Incentives in the tax code, incentives to work or not work, etc.  I think that's off because it assumes a certain rationality and awareness that probably isn't there.  That is, people are not incented as we tend to think they may be.  Eliminating welfare is not going to make more people work, but it will make them starve or do crimes or both.

And so on.

Most of all, though, I hate pandering and performative politics, and always have.  So that's what broke my brain as a conservative, as much as anything else.

Edited December 28, 2023 by TwiceHorn

[Brisketexan 104465]

All right good sir it's time to discuss this again. Over here in the CR where BP can't handle the lunacy.
Why did you turn? Was it about the same time as Rick Wilson? 
I'd like to hear him tell it again but iirc it was the speech about Mexico and how he knew at that point it was fucked. Trump was going to tap into...the dark energy. Openly. Atwater was truly dead. 
I'm asking because that'll help if we can keep, as Wilson calls it, cracking off a few wedges of voters at a time. Go look around at the last few elections. R+ districts are flipping. 
Because of people like you. Long term GOP voters that are flat out disgusted with what was their party becoming the GQP. You and others like you stopped participating in the primaries and being a willing and energetic volunteer. Rick Wilson got fucking pissed off and figured out he could still stay in the game. He is a formidable opponent. They hate him. I don't know who they hate more, dirty fucking libs or the RINOS that have turned on them.
Anyhow I am still in it. I remember when CR was definitely center right with some farther to right than others. I mean one of the very first threads in here was crowing at Hilary.
Where are they now? 
You and [mention=248]TwiceHorn[/mention] are still here. I remember getting sideways with Twice about some political shit at one point years ago. Now, we are on the same side more often than not. 
All I'm looking at is the fact that you and others like you are not voting like you used to. 

To cut to answering your ultimate question: it doesn’t matter, anyone who was going to leave the GQP has done so. There are no more GQP defectors to get.

As for my personal timing…started my turn under W as POTUS and governor Perry. And then watching the party go, literally, insane with racism and conspiracy theory shit when Obama ran for POTUS, it was all over for me.

But understand that for MOST republicans, they LIKE those things. If they didn’t before, they’ve learned to love them (look at how many said Trump was an evil POS…and now fight each other for the chance to gargle his balls).

Accept the fact that 40% of your fellow Americans are huge pieces of shit, and are pretty motivated voters.

[TexasEd 8062]

On 12/23/2023 at 5:26 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Interesting that it’s at the end of a year heading into an election year.  Should be much higher.  It’s almost like Republican donors are either not very enthusiastic about the candidates, not very angry/upset at the Dems, or they are saving their money for a future election year.  Or all three.

How much is Trump Sucking up like that giant space balls vacuum?

 

[Superhero 8739]

On 12/10/2023 at 7:33 AM, cactusflinthead said:

 

Oh AOC

[cactusflinthead 27593]

The Cook Political Report initially had Boebert in a “lean Republican” district, but moved it to a “toss up” in July after her narrow win over Frisch. That rating is expected to change with her out of the race.

 

https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/western_colorado/boeberts-departure-turns-gop-nomination-on-its-head/article_57bc61c0-a5c0-11ee-a422-8b9831a8a8be.html

[cactusflinthead 27593]

Lamborn wants out too. 

 

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

Pamela ain’t my name and I’ve never lived in MD, but whatevs.

 

[Js1 85056]

The House retirements are coming in fast and furious now after the holiday break

37 retirements as of 1/10 - 22 D and 16 R

10 pure D retirements
12 Dems "retiring" to run for a different office

11 pure R retirements
5 Republicans "retiring" to run for a different office

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

The House retirements are coming in fast and furious now after the holiday break

37 retirements as of 1/10 - 22 D and 16 R

10 pure D retirements
12 Dems "retiring" to run for a different office

11 pure R retirements
5 Republicans "retiring" to run for a different office

How many of those districts are competitive? 

[Js1 85056]

2 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

How many of those districts are competitive? 

About a dozen so far. Mostly Dem-held seats, but a good chunk are the NC ones that got destroyed in redistricting and were going to flip regardless 

[cactusflinthead 27593]

Interesting development in Louisiana

And a reply

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Interesting development in Louisiana

And a reply

 

Cajuns knew they were going to lose like Alabama did and are just biting the bullet. Fine with me. Of all the court cases, I was most optimistic about Alabama and Louisiana. Their maps were both extremely obvious racist screw jobs. 
 

Florida ended up being a loss because democrats have done so poorly in the state since Obama left. Repubs controlled literally all levers of power. Georgia was able to simply tweak their map without giving up any seats. I don’t think we will see anything come out of the remaining South Carolina / Texas lawsuits.

[BamaATL 16592]

9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Cajuns knew they were going to lose like Alabama did and are just biting the bullet. Fine with me. Of all the court cases, I was most optimistic about Alabama and Louisiana. Their maps were both extremely obvious racist screw jobs. 
 

Florida ended up being a loss because democrats have done so poorly in the state since Obama left. Repubs controlled literally all levers of power. Georgia was able to simply tweak their map without giving up any seats. I don’t think we will see anything come out of the remaining South Carolina / Texas lawsuits.

Georgia is still facing another legal challenge, but this won't matter in terms of 2024.  I still think there is a very good chance the court approved map is overturned on appeal, but in all likelihood won't impact this year.  It's still a screw job.  

[Js1 85056]

Quote

Mike Johnson@MikeJohnson

2h

We’ve just seen, and are very concerned with, the proposed Congressional map presented in the Louisiana Legislature. It remains my position that the existing map is constitutional and that the legal challenge to it should be tried on merits so the State has adequate opportunity to defend its merits. Should the state not prevail at trial, there are multiple other map options that are legally compliant and do not require the unnecessary surrender of a Republican seat in Congress.

[Voldemort86 2259]

14 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Georgia is still facing another legal challenge, but this won't matter in terms of 2024.  I still think there is a very good chance the court approved map is overturned on appeal, but in all likelihood won't impact this year.  It's still a screw job.  

Good thing Georgia is trending Blue. I’m hoping repubs can’t win there anymore by 2028

[Voldemort86 2259]

14 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Interesting development in Louisiana

And a reply

 

Is this official? I haven’t seen it reported anywhere else.  I’d really love for it to be true. I guess I’m just seeking verification.

[Js1 85056]

5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Is this official? I haven’t seen it reported anywhere else.  I’d really love for it to be true. I guess I’m just seeking verification.

The map passed committee unanimously 

[Chuckie Finster 22583]

Mike Johnson@MikeJohnson
2h
We’ve just seen, and are very concerned with, the proposed Congressional map presented in the Louisiana Legislature. It remains my position that the existing map is constitutional and that the legal challenge to it should be tried on merits so the State has adequate opportunity to defend its merits. Should the state not prevail at trial, there are multiple other map options that are legally compliant and do not require the unnecessary surrender of a Republican seat in Congress.

I know the horse left the barn long ago, but still fairly eye opening to see the SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE admit that his state’s map should be drawn based on party representation rather than accurate representation of its constituents.

[BamaATL 16592]

50 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know the horse left the barn long ago, but still fairly eye opening to see the SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE admit that his state’s map should be drawn based on party representation rather than accurate representation of its constituents.

Well, you see, this Speaker of the House is a feckless twat.  So there is that.  

[Js1 85056]

Well the LA Senate didn't care about Mike Johnson being a bitch.  Passed the Senate 27-11 and heads to the LA House. 

It is going to be the map. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Well the LA Senate didn't care about Mike Johnson being a bitch.  Passed the Senate 27-11 and heads to the LA House. 

It is going to be the map. 

Don’t get what Mike Johnson was thinking here.  We all saw what happened in Alabama. The LA Republican governor supports the new map. They would lose in court anyway.

Johnson was probably better off staying quiet and cutting his losses because now he just looks like an idiot.

[BamaATL 16592]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Don’t get what Mike Johnson was thinking here.  We all saw what happened in Alabama. The LA Republican governor supports the new map. They would lose in court anyway.

Johnson was probably better off staying quiet and cutting his losses because now he just looks like an idiot.

He doesn't look like an idiot.  He is an idiot.  

[cactusflinthead 27593]

 

[Js1 85056]

6 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

NY GOP tried to get mail-in ballots stopped for this race and got told to go to hell by the NY courts.

[cactusflinthead 27593]

 

[Js1 85056]

First NY-03 poll for the special is Suozzi 45-42.  When it broke to down "very likely voters", its Suozzi 51-37

This seat is flipping, folks. 

[Js1 85056]

On 1/16/2024 at 10:32 AM, cactusflinthead said:

Interesting development in Louisiana

And a reply

 

It’s being signed by the governor. +1 seat for D, -1 seat for R

Edited January 19 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It’s being signed by the governor. +1 seat for D, -1 seat for R

Surprised Louisiana R governor was cool with it.  He could’ve raised a stink and tried to fight it, but I think the Cajuns made the right move by avoiding the inevitable embarrassment of losing in court over and over and over again like Alabama did.

[Js1 85056]

26 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Surprised Louisiana R governor was cool with it.  He could’ve raised a stink and tried to fight it, but I think the Cajuns made the right move by avoiding the inevitable embarrassment of losing in court over and over and over again like Alabama did.

If it comes down to you take the loss and draw the maps or fight it and let someone draw them, you go with the option that gives you some control. They got to basically choose who to kick out, and Graves was the loser they chose 

[HRSchenker 2257]

Years ago I turned down an offer to meet up with the Sons of the American Revolution because it was being held in a conference room of a local nursing home. There's definitely no way I'm meeting up with a congressional candidate at a fucking funeral home. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

16 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

Years ago I turned down an offer to meet up with the Sons of the American Revolution because it was being held in a conference room of a local nursing home. There's definitely no way I'm meeting up with a congressional candidate at a fucking funeral home. 

Hosted by folks with the last name Slay and event taking place in a funeral home?  GOP is so weird.

[yoladu 4065]

a GOP congresswoman forgot how she voted on bills she's bragged about, but actually opposed

https://www.yahoo.com/news/watch-moment-gop-congresswoman-forgot-154805744.html

This shit needs to be called out by local /regional journalists during this election cycle, because there will be more of it for sure.

House Republicans have literally nothing to run on. Nothing. They haven't done shit. Just ask Chip Roy.

                 "I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing—one—that I can go campaign on and say we did. One!”

 

[HRSchenker 2257]

Big election in state house district 2 tonight. Jill Dutton vs Brent Money. Dutton is backed by Rick Perry, Lance Gooden, and the speaker of the Texas house while Money is backed by Abbott, Paxton, and Cruz. Let's see if rural voters really give a shit about "Nazi cash" and the Paxton impeachment.

[Js1 85056]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

I’m so glad that Sheldon adelson is gone and his family seems to be focusing on running the Dallas mavericks and legalizing gambling nationwide.

the big checks to the GOP seem to have really dried up.