Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[BamaATL 16,593]

I wonder if the Koch family has foregone giving money to the national party for fear that none of it will wind up down the ticket with dotard in the mix.  I know they've been big on supporting Haley, but lack of funds for the national party is interesting, and I am guessing this at least plays a part.  

[atomheartbevo 90,679]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

I wonder if the Koch family has foregone giving money to the national party for fear that none of it will wind up down the ticket with dotard in the mix.  I know they've been big on supporting Haley, but lack of funds for the national party is interesting, and I am guessing this at least plays a part.  

Probably  it cannot be a coincidence that the RNC is suffering while Trump pulled in hundreds of millions after 2020.

And those tens of millions spent defending Trump could have been used for candidates,

Then again, these people might not have been motivated to donate to the RNC.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Probably  it cannot be a coincidence that the RNC is suffering while Trump pulled in hundreds of millions after 2020.

And those tens of millions spent defending Trump could have been used for candidates,

Then again, these people might not have been motivated to donate to the RNC.

Don’t forget the Republican Party at its core is based on greed and selfishness. The people who run red states would rather see the poorer or less fortunate in life folks who live in their states suffer than simply expand Medicaid. They’d rather own a black guy ( Obama) then let poor people go to the doctor and get smaller problems fixed or addressed before they become bigger problems which further burdens the overall healthcare system. They’d rather see rural hospitals go under.

the party is literally “ I have mine or am happy with mine.  Screw you. Get out of my way. Cut my taxes as low as possible so I can contribute to society as little as possible. Leave my family and me alone while we go buy our second yacht with the tax cut money we just saved”.

[Hornius Emeritus 12,813]

I just realized Eugene Vindman is running for the House.


 

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,743]

On 1/31/2024 at 7:53 PM, Js1 said:

 

GOP house fundraising is down when they elect their 10th choice as the Speaker because the bottom 5% refuse to go along with the rest of the party? Who would have guessed.

[Js1 87,290]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

GOP house fundraising is down when they elect their 10th choice as the Speaker because the bottom 5% refuse to go along with the rest of the party? Who would have guessed.

A backbencher from Louisiana with no fundraising network or connections. Genius idea 

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

A backbencher from Louisiana with no fundraising network or connections. Genius idea 

As it turns out, he's also an even a bigger weirdo than most of them, which is saying something.  

[Js1 87,290]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

As it turns out, he's also an even a bigger weirdo than most of them, which is saying something.  

And the sheer number of bills that have passed under his leadership that were what Dems wanted. Feckless loser. Thank god for him 

[BamaATL 16,593]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And the sheer number of bills that have passed under his leadership that were what Dems wanted. Feckless loser. Thank god for him 

At a certain point I wonder if he calls stuff to the floor just to take a loss and say, welp I tried, then to cave.  I gotta feeling that's exactly what is going to happen with his Israel aid stand alone bill this week.  

[atomheartbevo 90,679]

8 hours ago, Js1 said:

A backbencher from Louisiana with no fundraising network or connections. 

And no bank account.

[Js1 87,290]

 

There's like 10 people who have filed to run for her seat already 

[Js1 87,290]

Cathy McMorris Rodgers is retiring.

R+8, 53-44 Trump district.  But she's only 54 and she's a committee chair and previously in leadership.  

[Js1 87,290]

Turnout today is already abysmal for NY-03, due to the weather.

Dems have banked a big early vote lead, so the Souzzi +4.5 looks like it might be underestimating him.

But we shall see.

[Ghost of LL 15,705]

 

[bolverk 30,375]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Turnout today is already abysmal for NY-03, due to the weather.

Dems have banked a big early vote lead, so the Souzzi +4.5 looks like it might be underestimating him.

But we shall see.

 

15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

 

Mustn't neglect the "snow plow effect".

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/nyregion/pilip-suozzi-santos-election.html?smid=url-share 

Republicans and Democrats were locked in a desperate race Tuesday afternoon to turn out voters after an ill-timed Election Day snowstorm snarled the close of a tightly contested special House election to replace George Santos in New York.

Both candidates offered voters expenses-paid transportation to polling sites, and dispatched canvassers to schlep through the half foot of wet snow that blanketed most of the Queens and Long Island district.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, the House Republicans’ main super PAC, even hired private snow plows to help clear the party’s best precinct areas faster, according to its spokeswoman. The group, which had already spent $5 million on the race, did not share the cost of the last-minute service.

Turnout plummeted during the heaviest snow Tuesday morning, an alarming sign for Republicans who had counted on an Election Day surge to offset Democrats’ apparent advantage in early and absentee voting. Polling sites will remain open until 9 p.m.

“For partisans on both sides who believe in divine intervention, the weather will decide whether God is a Democrat or Republican,” Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from the district, quipped before the flakes started falling.

“And whether he votes in special elections,” he added.

*****

This being Long Island, a suburban expanse where politics and public works have a history of mixing, Democrats were suspicious that Republicans who control the Nassau County government and each of its three townships might selectively clear paths for their voters. That was before the Republican super PAC stepped in to lend a hand.

“Of course we’re worried about where they plow the roads,” Mr. Jacobs said.

Delia DeRiggi-Whitton, the Democratic minority leader of the Nassau County Legislature, took it upon herself to write letters on Monday warning Bruce Blakeman, the county’s Republican executive, and others not to cut county employees loose on “snow days” so they could help the campaign effort.

Mr. Blakeman shot back that he was “personally offended” that Democrats would question his administration’s integrity, and vowed to clear the streets equitably.

“I have directly told everyone involved that no community shall be favored and that they should do their work according to their usual practices, except to start earlier,” Mr. Blakeman wrote.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/clock-ticking-future-new-yorks-congressional-map-still-uncertain
 

can anyone see behind the paywall or has a subscription to cook and tell the rest of us what it said?  
 

It’s an update from house expert Dave Wasserman about the new house map in New York.

[bolverk 30,375]

5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/clock-ticking-future-new-yorks-congressional-map-still-uncertain
 

can anyone see behind the paywall or has a subscription to cook and tell the rest of us what it said?  
 

It’s an update from house expert Dave Wasserman about the new house map in New York.

All I can tell you is it's a D+2 district, according to them. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

[Js1 87,290]

13 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

 

Mustn't neglect the "snow plow effect".

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/nyregion/pilip-suozzi-santos-election.html?smid=url-share 

Republicans and Democrats were locked in a desperate race Tuesday afternoon to turn out voters after an ill-timed Election Day snowstorm snarled the close of a tightly contested special House election to replace George Santos in New York.

Both candidates offered voters expenses-paid transportation to polling sites, and dispatched canvassers to schlep through the half foot of wet snow that blanketed most of the Queens and Long Island district.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, the House Republicans’ main super PAC, even hired private snow plows to help clear the party’s best precinct areas faster, according to its spokeswoman. The group, which had already spent $5 million on the race, did not share the cost of the last-minute service.

Turnout plummeted during the heaviest snow Tuesday morning, an alarming sign for Republicans who had counted on an Election Day surge to offset Democrats’ apparent advantage in early and absentee voting. Polling sites will remain open until 9 p.m.

“For partisans on both sides who believe in divine intervention, the weather will decide whether God is a Democrat or Republican,” Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from the district, quipped before the flakes started falling.

“And whether he votes in special elections,” he added.

*****

This being Long Island, a suburban expanse where politics and public works have a history of mixing, Democrats were suspicious that Republicans who control the Nassau County government and each of its three townships might selectively clear paths for their voters. That was before the Republican super PAC stepped in to lend a hand.

“Of course we’re worried about where they plow the roads,” Mr. Jacobs said.

Delia DeRiggi-Whitton, the Democratic minority leader of the Nassau County Legislature, took it upon herself to write letters on Monday warning Bruce Blakeman, the county’s Republican executive, and others not to cut county employees loose on “snow days” so they could help the campaign effort.

Mr. Blakeman shot back that he was “personally offended” that Democrats would question his administration’s integrity, and vowed to clear the streets equitably.

“I have directly told everyone involved that no community shall be favored and that they should do their work according to their usual practices, except to start earlier,” Mr. Blakeman wrote.

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

 

[Js1 87,290]

GOP has to run up big margins in Nassau on E-Day to offset the early voting.  As of an hour ago or so, Rs were only about 600 ahead of D for E-Day voting + 6700 independents. 

Queens is about 6k votes, but that part of Queens was Biden+20.  District only has a small portion of Queens. 

The math isn't mathing for the GOP unless they get about 80-85% of the independent/other votes.

Edited February 13 by Js1

[Zonahorn 8,079]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

Reply to the above numbers

And it just so happens we have a shot of the part of Queens in the district

 

[BamaATL 16,593]

Pubs are attempting a last ditch effort at impeaching Mayorkas this evening, in my mind more or less conceding that it will get more difficult after tonight.  Even if impeached by the House, it will go nowhere in the Senate.  They are counting on absences in order to do this due to the weather, a generally speaking pathetic attempt to impress their idiot base with, "See we are doing something!".  Johnson is such a feckless twat with the political savviness of a pet rock.  Hopefully, this somehow is another embarrassing failure for them, but even I can't imagine them being this stupid without having it locked in.  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Pubs are attempting a last ditch effort at impeaching Mayorkas this evening, in my mind more or less conceding that it will get more difficult after tonight.  Even if impeached by the House, it will go nowhere in the Senate.  They are counting on absences in order to do this due to the weather, a generally speaking pathetic attempt to impress their idiot base with, "See we are doing something!".  Johnson is such a feckless twat with the political savviness of a pet rock.  Hopefully, this somehow is another embarrassing failure for them, but even I can't imagine them being this stupid without having it locked in.  

Man I hope one of their members suddenly gets extremely sick or hurt to where they can’t walk or there’s some kind of transportation issue that cancels flights or ices roads. Anything to make them hold off the vote until they just give up.

[Ghost of LL 15,705]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

Man I hope one of their members suddenly gets extremely sick or hurt to where they can’t walk or there’s some kind of transportation issue that cancels flights or ices roads. Anything to make them hold off the vote until they just give up.

I suspect they don't have a real good whip count because . . . well, they just really suck at it.  But even if they were good at it, this would be a challenging situation given the flight schedules and the weather.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,743]

if the Dem wins NY-3, it will be GOP 219-213?  Johnson could only afford 2 defections to win a vote. 

[BamaATL 16,593]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

if the Dem wins NY-3, it will be GOP 219-213?  Johnson could only afford 2 defections to win a vote. 

Yes with 3 open seats, 2 Rs and 1 D.  I don't know off hand when those special elections will take place.  McCarthy R seat isn't going anywhere, and I haven't heard chatter about the other two really being in play.  

[Ghost of LL 15,705]

15 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Man I hope one of their members suddenly gets extremely sick or hurt to where they can’t walk or there’s some kind of transportation issue that cancels flights or ices roads. Anything to make them hold off the vote until they just give up.

 

[Js1 87,290]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Yes with 3 open seats, 2 Rs and 1 D.  I don't know off hand when those special elections will take place.  McCarthy R seat isn't going anywhere, and I haven't heard chatter about the other two really being in play.  

NY-26 is April 30. 

[BamaATL 16,593]

The vote passes.  Still, a fairly big tell about their prospects this evening that they did this.  Come on Suozzi.  

[BamaATL 16,593]

CNN reporting turnout numbers thus far

Nassau County 20k Dem voters, 21k Pub voters, 12k indy

Queens - 22k voters, affiliation not tracked (90% Dem area)

All this was as of 6 pm

The district has 525k registered voters

Not clear if these are today's numbers only or includes mail in.  Looking very promising though.  

[Js1 87,290]

8 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

CNN reporting turnout numbers thus far

Nassau County 20k Dem voters, 21k Pub voters, 12k indy

Queens - 22k voters, affiliation not tracked (90% Dem area)

All this was as of 6 pm

The district has 525k registered voters

Not clear if these are today's numbers only or includes mail in.  Looking very promising though.  

Pretty sure it’s in person. Mail/early was 80k

[BamaATL 16,593]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Pretty sure it’s in person. Mail/early was 80k

Interesting as well, apparently this election in New York will be the first to have the mail in counted first by law.  It's also the first time mail in requires no excuse in New York.  So when results come in early, the numbers will likely be skewed very much in our favor and narrow a bit after the fact.  This is different than what we are used to seeing.  

[Js1 87,290]

GOP is not winning E-Day by much 

 

[BamaATL 16,593]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

GOP is not winning E-Day by much 

 

Winning Queens was a given, performing that well in Nassau bodes very well as a bellwether.  Exceeding Biden's 8 point number seems possible.  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Tick tock pubs. Tick tock.

[Js1 87,290]

9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Tick tock pubs. Tick tock.

HD-140 race has been called by NYT. EV was 85-14 lol. Dems will hold that PA House seat 

[BamaATL 16,593]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

HD-140 race has been called by NYT. EV was 85-14 lol. Dems will hold that PA House seat 

Wasn't this predicted to be close by pollsters? I remember some alarmist scuttlebutt about it, nothing I really paid attention to.  Great news either way.  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Wasn't this predicted to be close by pollsters? I remember some alarmist scuttlebutt about it, nothing I really paid attention to.  Great news either way.  

Little Scott Presler was trying to rally repubs and flip the district.  I guess he failed miserably.

[BamaATL 16,593]

Every single bit of CNN's web coverage is negative Dem and Biden, and positive/excuse for Pubs.  

Mind you, Dem's are about to crush this one, but reading their bullshit you'd think we'd lost by 20 points.  

[Js1 87,290]

24 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Every single bit of CNN's web coverage is negative Dem and Biden, and positive/excuse for Pubs.  

Mind you, Dem's are about to crush this one, but reading their bullshit you'd think we'd lost by 20 points.  

 

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

 

Edited February 14 by cactusflinthead

[Js1 87,290]

Precinct level > county map bc it’s 2 counties 

[BamaATL 16,593]

So CNN just showed an ad campaign breakdown about $21 million was spent.  Dems $13 million, Pubs $8 million

Pubs spent nearly $6 million on the immigration/border, CNN then immediately claims because $8 million total was spent on this issue that it was clearly the number one issue.  

It would appear to have made no positive impact for Pubs, and in fact the other way around.  

Also, and most importantly, AOC is on right now, looking great as always.  

Edited February 14 by BamaATL

[TexEx15 17,959]

Statehouse but the demographics are encouraging for national prospects.

[Js1 87,290]

At the moment, Queens has swung 20 points left from 2022. It really was a localized red wave in NY 

[Js1 87,290]

 

[Chuckie Finster 23,099]

Yet another election result that we will all be told isn’t relevant to November because of … reasons.

[Js1 87,290]

Half of Nassau came in with Souzzi winning it 58-42. That’s insane, because Nassau was Biden +5 and Santos +10. Will be curious to see what the rest of it is, but either way, Souzzi really overperformed Biden in Queens and Nassau. Reversion to the mean, perhaps. 2022 was a blip 

[BamaATL 16,593]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Half of Nassau came in with Souzzi winning it 58-42. That’s insane, because Nassau was Biden +5 and Santos +10. Will be curious to see what the rest of it is, but either way, Souzzi really overperformed Biden in Queens and Nassau. Reversion to the mean, perhaps. 2022 was a blip 

Yet I'm still hearing from the media what a huge drag immigration is on Democratic candidates.  Well geez whiz, the Pubs shoot their wad in this race about nothing but immigration and got beat worse.