Way too early, down and dirty 2024 House elections thread

[TeeDubya 3362]

KS-02 is across the state from two of the most oxymoronically named towns in the United States:
1.  Liberal, KS
2. Garden City, KS

[Js1 85289]

House seats being 3 (R Kevin Kiley, R+4), 9 (D Josh Harder, D+5), 13 (R John Duarte, D+4), 22 (R David Valadao, D+5), 27 (R Mike Garcia, D+4), 40 (R Young Kim, R+2), 41 (R Ken Calvert, R+3), 45 (R Michelle Steel, D+2), 47 (OPEN, D+3) and 49 (D Mike Levin, D+3)

 

Edited April 29 by Js1

[chainsaw 9859]

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/05/03/henry-cuellar-texas-indicted-doj/

Henry Cuellar indicated

[elfenix 34223]

Tuning into a live CLE on YouTube and one of the criminal defense attorneys doing the presentation literally just got called to defend Cuellar in the Southern District

[B00M 6414]

Not sure where else to put this. Regardless of how you feel about Andrew Yang, the points aren’t particularly controversial and the end gives some reason for optimism in US politics.
 

 

[SydneyCarton 48063]

Maybe. But he can still get all the way fucked and stay fucked. That being said, I agree. I've long contended that fixing gerrymandering and our voting rules/laws will fix 75% of the problems in America, given enough time.

Edited May 7 by SydneyCarton

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

42 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Maybe. But he can still get all the way fucked and stay fucked. That being said, I agree. I've long contended that fixing gerrmandering and our voting rules/laws will fix 75% of the problems in America, given enough time.

This.

At this point a vote for anyone but Joe Biden might as well be a vote for Trump. We gotta fix this femoral artery laceration before we worry about the broken leg. 

(Yes, I know he's not running for President this year, but this applies to any of these third party fringe guys)

[SydneyCarton 48063]

15 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

This.

At this point a vote for anyone but Joe Biden might as well be a vote for Trump. We gotta fix this femoral artery laceration before we worry about the broken leg. 

(Yes, I know he's not running for President this year, but this applies to any of these third party fringe guys)

I mean, no one is voting for him, and he's not running. He's literally in Canada doing a TED talk. That being said, if Biden wins, and the dems get both chambers, even if it's by 1 in the house and a tie in the senate, Biden needs to fucking suspend the fillibuster and push through a national voting rights act that fixes gerrymandering and implements ranked choice voting federally and removes state restrictions on that shit. 

Honestly, states can run their own fucking elections, but part of the problem in the US is that no one understands the different rules in each different state, and this creates confusion that GOP capitalzes on to scream FRAUD. I had one preson, intelligent and succesful, insist there were regularities and we should have investigated the major vote shifts while he was asleep. IT'S BEEN THAT WAY FOREVER YOU JUST NEVER PAID ATTENTION. 

Edited May 7 by SydneyCarton

[YGIFS 19449]

All above points, perfectly logical and plausible.  But unless you guys can hold your breath until 2032...don't get too excited.  We got 8 more years of turbulence to deal with until the lines are redrawn in 2031 census with new demography and uptick in voter registration.  Until then, it's simply defeat Trump, watch him die, handle the batshit MAGA deniers, and white-knuckle our way back to a stable nation.  All else is commentary...

[Js1 85289]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Biden needs to fucking suspend the fillibuster

He does not that have that power.

But you better believe, he and Schumer are going to push every single Dem senator to go along with it if they manage to hold 50 seats + VP, and without Manchin and Sinema being CuntLord Supremes, they will likely meet the moment. 

Worst case, 2027, because the 2026 map is way better for Dems than the 2024 map. 

Edited May 7 by Js1

[SydneyCarton 48063]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He does not that have that power.

But you better believe, he and Schumer are going to push every single Dem senator to go along with it if they manage to hold 50 seats + VP, and without Manchin and Sinema being CuntLord Supremes, they will likely meet the moment. 

Worst case, 2027, because the 2026 map is way better for Dems than the 2024 map. 

I don’t think biden would even push. Or Schumer. And yes I realize Biden doesn’t have the power to do it unilaterally. But he’s the leader of the party. 

[YGIFS 19449]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He does not that have that power.

But you better believe, he and Schumer are going to push every single Dem senator to go along with it if they manage to hold 50 seats + VP, and without Manchin and Sinema being CuntLord Supremes, they will likely meet the moment. 

Worst case, 2027, because the 2026 map is way better for Dems than the 2024 map. 

Yeah, y'all need to grasp that the Class I may still very well go R +1-3.  But you got a decent shot at the House.  Obviously the most important thing is to hold the Oval Office.  2026 likely tilts back the Senate Class II to your party, but who gives a shit if Trump is back in office?  2028, even with a Biden re-election in 2024 could still spell a GOP/MAGA-acolyte type POTUS as the extreme wing exhales its dying breath.  But keep some of them at home, you ain't converting anybody in the next few years.  But if you can still juggle both chambers and keep the White House.  That offsets a SCOTUS composition that is not going anywhere before 2031 save for maybe a Alito or Sotomayor early death.  Demography, census, and new districts in 2032 election cycle should do most of the heavy lifting for the Democrats.  As will disenfranchised/aged MAGA voters.   You're not winning over anybody with voter turnout efforts this year.  It's just about making just enough MAGA voters to stay home out of shame (though many will vote just to secretly spite us).  But come to terms with the fact that there's a 1/3 chance, perhaps higher than the GOP holds the house, wins a few Class I seats to take back the Senate, keeps SCOTUS obviously, and somehow through EC magic---gets back into the West Wing.  2026-2030 will course correct into a wonderful setup in 2023.  But those first two years are going to be a fucking disaster.  See y'all in 8.5 years....

[bolverk 29656]

It's a win, but there's some weirdness with the liberals opposed to this decision that my tired brain isn't quite processing. 

 

Supreme Court orders Louisiana to use congressional map with additional Black district in 2024 vote

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court on Wednesday ordered Louisiana to hold congressional elections in 2024 using a House map with a second mostly Black district, despite a lower-court ruling that called the map an illegal racial gerrymander.

The order allows the use of a map that has majority Black populations in two of the state’s six congressional districts, potentially boosting Democrats’ chances of gaining control of the closely divided House of Representatives in the 2024 elections.

The justices acted on emergency appeals filed by the state’s top Republican elected officials and Black voters who said they needed the high court’s intervention to avoid confusion as the elections approach. About a third of Louisiana is Black.

The Supreme Court’s order does not deal with a lower-court ruling that found the map relied too heavily on race. Instead, it only prevents yet another new map from being drawn for this year’s elections.

The Supreme Court could decide at a later date to hear arguments over the decision striking down the Louisiana map.

The court’s three liberal justices dissented from Wednesday’s order. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote that the judges who struck down the latest map should have had the chance to produce a new map before the high court intervened.

Continued at link. 

[Js1 85289]

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It's a win, but there's some weirdness with the liberals opposed to this decision that my tired brain isn't quite processing. 

 

[bolverk 29656]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

Thanks. That's what I gathered, but I'm still having trouble grasping the problematic precedent. Don't go trying to dig it up, though, as I'm sure it'd be a futile effort right now.

[Js1 85289]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Thanks. That's what I gathered, but I'm still having trouble grasping the problematic precedent. Don't go trying to dig it up, though, as I'm sure it'd be a futile effort right now.

It’s the Purcell principle - SCOTUS shouldn’t make big changes within a certain time of an election because it confuses voters and make things difficult for elections officials and candidates 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2822]

Gerrymandered Beth Van Duyne (TX24 - Lake Highlands to fucking Ft. Worth), Christian ho and hypocrite, coveting her neighbors husband.  Which arguably might not be a sin if you're a strict bible reader.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13429341/Who-Beth-Van-Duyne-Texas-GOP-Rep-53-seen-holding-hands-table-Georgia-Republican-Rich-McCormick-files-divorce-oncologist-wife.html

I think all it will take is a good cry at her local non-dom church to get her back in good graces with the Southlake types.

Sam's got no chance but I threw him a double sawbuck because I like tilting at windmills.

https://sameppler.com/

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21183]

 

 

[YGIFS 19449]

That awkward moment when you realize your local GOP Rep. shops for her turtlenecks at the place by the hospital that rents crutches and neck braces.  

[Post Oak 20208]

I just listened to this pod today with Caroline Spears or Climate Cabinet. It's worth a listen imo.

She and her organization are trying to "Moneyball" elections for candidates who are good on climate. 

They throw their money behind everyone from local water boards up to state legislature. 

Basically their goal is to find elections throughout the country where they can get the most bang for their buck.

One of her talking points was being bipartisan, kinda.  So they have looked through the way every candidate has voted in the last four years around the country.  They graded their votes as how beneficial or detrimental it was to climate.  They found 1000 Dems who received an A+ grade and 9 Rs.

If they think the Rs are good on climate they give support them without advertising. 

She talks about how ridiculous Rs are on climate. Citing examples about them being against the ideas of 15minute cities.  

Meanwhile Dems who are good on climate also seem to be good on affordable housing, public transport etc. 

I'm going to donate to them.  If you like the pod and want to as well here's their website.

https://climatecabinet.org/

 

[texastough 1129]

I searched here but couldn't find anything on Kristin Hook. Does she have any chance against Roy in TX-21?

[Pancho 44712]

 

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33867]

fox, indeed

[atomheartbevo 89629]

Eugene Vindman won his Democratic primary 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/18/politics/virginia-primary/index.html

[gmr548 16576]

On 5/7/2024 at 1:48 PM, Js1 said:

He does not that have that power.

But you better believe, he and Schumer are going to push every single Dem senator to go along with it if they manage to hold 50 seats + VP, and without Manchin and Sinema being CuntLord Supremes, they will likely meet the moment. 

Worst case, 2027, because the 2026 map is way better for Dems than the 2024 map. 

If Joe Biden does win the election, the GOP is going to have an enormous House victory in the midterms. Democrats aren't passing shit in 27-28.

[TexEx15 17509]

27 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

If Joe Biden does win the election, the GOP is going to have an enormous House victory in the midterms. Democrats aren't passing shit in 27-28.

I assume the GQP is somehow going to get out from under control of the MAGA idiots?

[Sawbonz 27542]

9 hours ago, gmr548 said:

If Joe Biden does win the election, the GOP is going to have an enormous House victory in the midterms. Democrats aren't passing shit in 27-28.

Why? 

[BamaATL 16593]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Why? 

Historically that's just how it goes, but platforms, candidates and messaging matters.  If they keep their same platform and messaging (they won't) they will lose again.  

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

11 hours ago, gmr548 said:

If Joe Biden does win the election, the GOP is going to have an enormous House victory in the midterms. Democrats aren't passing shit in 27-28.

This is typically because functioning political parties are able to formulate a compelling counter message against the current party in charge.

As long as fealty to Trump is the only thing that matters to the GOP, any historic precedence is out the window.

[Js1 85289]

2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This is typically because functioning political parties are able to formulate a compelling counter message against the current party in charge.

As long as fealty to Trump is the only thing that matters to the GOP, any historic precedence is out the window.

Uh yeah, we’ve seen how fundamentalist and undisciplined the GOP was after Trump’s first loss, putting up the crappiest Senate and House candidates they could as long as they got the Orange Elvis’ Blessing.

If he loses again, oh boy, look out. The infighting is going to be something to behold. Candidate quality and messaging is going to get worse. And if Dems can actually keep the Senate and nuke the filibuster and do some amazing things (codify Roe, voting rights), look out!

[hornmpa96 2618]

33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And if Dems can actually keep the Senate and nuke the filibuster and do some amazing things (codify Roe, voting rights), look out!

This is my very optimistic scenario. Also, they could eliminate partisan gerrymandering in House races and pack the Court.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33867]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Historically that's just how it goes, but platforms, candidates and messaging matters.  If they keep their same platform and messaging (they won't) they will lose again.  

what makes you think that? if anything the GOP has shown the propensity to pick a position and stick with it for decades. it was reaganomics previously, now it's MAGA. it's here to stay and hopefully it means they continue to get crushed because of it - history be damned

[BamaATL 16593]

28 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

what makes you think that? if anything the GOP has shown the propensity to pick a position and stick with it for decades. it was reaganomics previously, now it's MAGA. it's here to stay and hopefully it means they continue to get crushed because of it - history be damned

The big money isn't paying to keep losing, eventually, they will tire of it and demand a change in platform.  Without money, they are dead in the water.  They've lost or underperformed in every election since 2016.  If they want to stay down the same road, by all means, but the reality is they won't.  Nothing is forever stagnant.  

[Brisketexan 105077]

The big money isn't paying to keep losing, eventually, they will tire of it and demand a change in platform.  Without money, they are dead in the water.  They've lost or underperformed in every election since 2016.  If they want to stay down the same road, by all means, but the reality is they won't.  Nothing is forever stagnant.  

The GQP is getting plenty of money. Those spigots are wide open.
There is not going to be any “get right with the lord” moment for the GQP. They are pot committed, ride-or-die on Trumpist fascism. Stop fantasizing about them coming to their senses. They won’t, and they can’t.

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

The GQP is getting plenty of money. Those spigots are wide open.
There is not going to be any “get right with the lord” moment for the GQP. They are pot committed, ride-or-die on Trumpist fascism. Stop fantasizing about them coming to their senses. They won’t, and they can’t.

They aren't paying to lose, and ultimately that's what drives the Republican Party and their most prominent backers.  Sure, they'll not cut ties with the crazies because they know they have to have them, but they will shift on messaging.  Big Oil, Big Pharma, Big whatever isn't going to continue to funnel money to something that gives them nothing in return.  They are more insidious than that, they will start attempting to buy influence on the winning side.  At a certain point they will determine that you are throwing good money at bad, and they will stop (many of them already have).   It's not because they agree or disagree, it's because the return on investment isn't there.  Unfortunately, that has as much to do with modern politics as anything.  The big money will push to back centrists, because that's what wins.  Republicans will still court the crazies, but in moderate lip service only.  The idiots that send 10% of their Social Security checks aren't a hill of beans compared to entities like the Heartland Foundation, etc.  

[BamaATL 16593]

Let me put it another way, if you have an old car, even one you like, but the repairs start repeatedly costing more than a new car and it doesn't get you where you need to go, you buy a new car.  The Republican Party, and in particular their donors have the ability to buy a new car, yet they keep paying to repair the old one that keeps letting them down (fine by me, fuck em).  Eventually, even the most stubborn come to the conclusion that it's time to move on.  

I hope they keep on the same course, because it's a losing strategy and because they are evil fucksticks.  Unfortunately, some of them are smart people, and they will push the others to make better strategic decisions.  The world isn't stagnant, nothing is, and just because they change messages doesn't make them any less dangerous or evil.  

[Js1 85289]

11 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

They aren't paying to lose, and ultimately that's what drives the Republican Party and their most prominent backers.  Sure, they'll not cut ties with the crazies because they know they have to have them, but they will shift on messaging.  Big Oil, Big Pharma, Big whatever isn't going to continue to funnel money to something that gives them nothing in return.  They are more insidious than that, they will start attempting to buy influence on the winning side.  At a certain point they will determine that you are throwing good money at bad, and they will stop (many of them already have).   It's not because they agree or disagree, it's because the return on investment isn't there.  Unfortunately, that has as much to do with modern politics as anything.  The big money will push to back centrists, because that's what wins.  Republicans will still court the crazies, but in moderate lip service only.  The idiots that send 10% of their Social Security checks aren't a hill of beans compared to entities like the Heartland Foundation, etc.  

there’s already a report, or a source, idk, that Big Business has no issue with Biden, but the CEOs are scared to be on Trump’s bad side if he wins and retaliates against corporations or industries that donated to or publicly support Biden 

[Brisketexan 105077]

9 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

They aren't paying to lose, and ultimately that's what drives the Republican Party and their most prominent backers.  Sure, they'll not cut ties with the crazies because they know they have to have them, but they will shift on messaging.  Big Oil, Big Pharma, Big whatever isn't going to continue to funnel money to something that gives them nothing in return.  They are more insidious than that, they will start attempting to buy influence on the winning side.  At a certain point they will determine that you are throwing good money at bad, and they will stop (many of them already have).   It's not because they agree or disagree, it's because the return on investment isn't there.  Unfortunately, that has as much to do with modern politics as anything.  The big money will push to back centrists, because that's what wins.  Republicans will still court the crazies, but in moderate lip service only.  The idiots that send 10% of their Social Security checks aren't a hill of beans compared to entities like the Heartland Foundation, etc.  

You're not wrong....but the problem is that the payday is too "insane jackpot level" for them to ever stop trying.  The money these people are contributing?  It's fucking pocket change.  Seriously, they piss away $20 million the way you and I spend $20.  If it's gone, who cares?  If it pays off?  Well then, they have a captive fascist oligarchy that allows them to extract every dollar they want from the public, with no impediments or consequences.  

It's one thing to be a car manufacturer.  It's another thing to be the "Exclusive licensed car manufacturer of the Trump States of America," which has regulated or crippled all competition into oblivion AND provided you near-total immunity from suit, complete loopholes to avoid most every regulation, answering to no one except the Fuhrer (to whom you pay a decent vig -- you rent blocks of $1,000 rooms in the Trump roach motel for every day of the year, whether you need them or not, you pay a "licensing fee" to Trump so you can produce your "Trump Edition Tesla CyberMegaMAGAMobile," etc.)

Bet $20 million to make $Infinity?  They will make that bet over and over until the heat death of the universe.  And eventually -- probably rather soon -- it will pay off.

We the people will not be sold into slavery and subservience.  We will gleefully march right into it.

[Brisketexan 105077]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

there’s already a report, or a source, idk, that Big Business has no issue with Biden, but the CEOs are scared to be on Trump’s bad side if he wins and retaliates against corporations or industries that donated to or publicly support Biden 

And this.  Fear is a hell of a motivator.

You may not have a problem with being Biden's friend.  But you cannot risk being Trump's enemy.  The downside is too great.

Play those two things together with each other: the upside of being the unregulated King Industry, and the downside of being the victim of the Trump States of America's vindictiveness, and we are fucking TOAST.

[BamaATL 16593]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

You're not wrong....but the problem is that the payday is too "insane jackpot level" for them to ever stop trying.  The money these people are contributing?  It's fucking pocket change.  Seriously, they piss away $20 million the way you and I spend $20.  If it's gone, who cares?  If it pays off?  Well then, they have a captive fascist oligarchy that allows them to extract every dollar they want from the public, with no impediments or consequences.  

It's one thing to be a car manufacturer.  It's another thing to be the "Exclusive licensed car manufacturer of the Trump States of America," which has regulated or crippled all competition into oblivion AND provided you near-total immunity from suit, complete loopholes to avoid most every regulation, answering to no one except the Fuhrer (to whom you pay a decent vig -- you rent blocks of $1,000 rooms in the Trump roach motel for every day of the year, whether you need them or not, you pay a "licensing fee" to Trump so you can produce your "Trump Edition Tesla CyberMegaMAGAMobile," etc.)

Bet $20 million to make $Infinity?  They will make that bet over and over until the heat death of the universe.  And eventually -- probably rather soon -- it will pay off.

We the people will not be sold into slavery and subservience.  We will gleefully march right into it.

The thing is, that's not how money nor the real world really works.  Trump doesn't have some immediate and permanently lasting way to hand out licenses for anything.  Access for a while maybe, even probably, but permanently, no.  The game never ends, and what we have to watch for is business suddenly moving pro Democrat because they can't win with the Republicans.  I.E. Insulin prices, if you think big Pharma wants to have people pay fair price, think again.  But if they can't win that battle with Republicans, suddenly they will be endorsing centrist candidates who campaign on fair price but behind the scenes agree to subsidies.  Bottom line, they hedge, because a company isn't a person, neither is a lobby group, they are cold and calculating, because it's their job to be.  For 40 years or so, big business has rallied around Republicans because it's been a golden ticket for them, but the second they think it's a losing proposition, above is the direction they will move in.  In my opinion, they are already there.  

Last night in Georgia we had a "former" centrist Republican convert win a Democratic runoff, and at least in part it was because of corporate support.  We are going to have be watchful and diligent within our own ranks (assuming you or anyone identifies Democrat), because this wasn't some blip on the radar, this a precursor to what is coming.  At the end of the day though, I take this precursor as telling for what business actually thinks of Republican prospects in the near term, and it ain't good for them.  I just fear we are going to wind up getting more Sinema's than we are Ted Lieu's.  

[Brisketexan 105077]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Trump doesn't have some immediate and permanently lasting way to hand out licenses for anything.

Your complete lack of imagination will be our undoing.  Nobody has those things.  Until they claim them, they are ratified by/protected by Congress and the SCOTUS, or fuck it, the Supreme Leader simply ignores the other branches, and ACTS as a law all to himself.  That's it.  That's all it takes.  Supreme Court opinions are just fucking words on paper if those who would be bound by them give zero fucks.

This isn't about winning within the rules, or breaking the rules.  It's about acting as if there are no fucking rules at all.  That's the game.  It's being played, right now.  And the dollars are chasing the game as it is unfolding.

[BamaATL 16593]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Your complete lack of imagination will be our undoing.  Nobody has those things.  Until they claim them, they are ratified by/protected by Congress and the SCOTUS, or fuck it, the Supreme Leader simply ignores the other branches, and ACTS as a law all to himself.  That's it.  That's all it takes.  Supreme Court opinions are just fucking words on paper if those who would be bound by them give zero fucks.

This isn't about winning within the rules, or breaking the rules.  It's about acting as if there are no fucking rules at all.  That's the game.  It's being played, right now.  And the dollars are chasing the game as it is unfolding.

I'm just happy to help you get your daily quota of doom casting in, for if you don't you might turn into a pumpkin at midnight.  Yes the stakes are huge, but I like our chances.  

[Brisketexan 105077]

Just now, BamaATL said:

I'm just happy to help you get your daily quota of doom casting in, for if you don't you might turn into a pumpkin at midnight.  Yes the stakes are huge, but I like our chances.  

HA, shows what you know!  In Trumplandia, pumpkins will be banned because they will be seen as nature mocking our rotund orange Fuhrer!

[Zonahorn 8079]

Bye Ciscomani

[Js1 85289]

 

[HRSchenker 2268]

NYT has Rep Cori Bush losing to Wesley Bell 54-42 right now. 

[Vegas64 673]

10 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

NYT has Rep Cori Bush losing to Wesley Bell 54-42 right now. 

It’s official.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

10 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

NYT has Rep Cori Bush losing to Wesley Bell 54-42 right now. 

 

7 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

It’s official.

Some reps appear to lose the reasoning on why they were elected in the first place. You can take on national or international issues but not at the expense of your local base thinking that you've forgotten them. You must be viewed negatively if you lose your primary.

You can join the cool kids' table (Squad) but if you're not as secure as they are, your tenure may not last long.

[elfenix 34223]

On 6/19/2024 at 9:59 AM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

what makes you think that? if anything the GOP has shown the propensity to pick a position and stick with it for decades. it was reaganomics previously, now it's MAGA. it's here to stay and hopefully it means they continue to get crushed because of it - history be damned

It's still Reaganomics, it's been Reaganomics since 1877.

[bluto 4913]

51 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

Some reps appear to lose the reasoning on why they were elected in the first place. You can take on national or international issues but not at the expense of your local base thinking that you've forgotten them. You must be viewed negatively if you lose your primary.

You can join the cool kids' table (Squad) but if you're not as secure as they are, your tenure may not last long.

Also saw where an insane dump truck of cash flooded the challenger from Israel.