Texas opens as a 5 point favorite v Oklahoma

[UTEE97 3521]

14 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

Updated weather in Dallas for the game. It actually is an advantage for the land thieves to have cooler weather 

 

Can you tell me more about Texas governor covering the cost of my solar?

[billfromlaketravis 11481]

So Texas is probably a 7-8 point favorite if the game were at DKR. 
 

9ish point feels about right. Enough we’re a little nervous in the 4th, but always up 2 possessions. 
 

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

[closetojumping 62729]

9 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So Texas is probably a 7-8 point favorite if the game were at DKR. 
 

9ish point feels about right. Enough we’re a little nervous in the 4th, but always up 2 possessions. 
 

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

Stop worrying about what a band of perennial losers thinks about your team. It’s an ugly look. 

[Bevo14 8311]

6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Stop worrying about what a band of perennial losers thinks about your team. It’s an ugly look. 

This. I care even more about what Taylor Swift thinks of this team than what a merry band of sheepfucking idiots thinks.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Bevo14

[The_Great_Hornsby 3236]

17 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So Texas is probably a 7-8 point favorite if the game were at DKR. 
 

9ish point feels about right. Enough we’re a little nervous in the 4th, but always up 2 possessions. 
 

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

They can asterisk deez nuts. fuck aggy

[Rickylovesweed 14317]

17 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

 aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

Why do you care? Do you think they put an asterisk on other teams wins against us last year when we were playing Card? 

They're biased idiots. 

[Js1 85338]

They need that asterisk backup defense bc when Bama wins on Saturday, it’s bc Connor “That Dude” Weigman is out. Duh 

[billfromlaketravis 11481]

I don’t care about aggy. The asterisk thing is as humorous as it is absurd. 

[burntorangebongos 10710]

On 10/1/2023 at 6:12 PM, WBT said:

-5 seems a little disrespectful

Vegas getting all the Texas hater money with that line. Lotsa Rubes gonna fall for it. 

[Fud 9552]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So Texas is probably a 7-8 point favorite if the game were at DKR. 
 

9ish point feels about right. Enough we’re a little nervous in the 4th, but always up 2 possessions. 
 

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

More like -9.5 or -10

[Texasrocks 2134]

56 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

If there's one thing aggy knows, it's what would have happened in a hypothetical match up.

[TexArcher 37774]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

Their stadium proudly displays division titles as conference titles and bullshit national championships from before the AP even existed.  

And their "glory days" in the 80's and early 90's were only mildly glorious and were 100% the result of rampant cheating.

Tell them to shut the fuck up and go farm something.

[Longboard Horn 40325]

12 hours ago, Texasborn91 said:

Gooners had to blow out everyone they could for style points. This is literally the only game they will play vs any team with a pulse. If everyone thought Ou was legit they would be ranked higher than 12. SMU gave them all they could handle. 

Yup and they struggled with SMU. Funny thing is that this is a bad SMU squad. They’re on a rebuild year with a new QB and defense and OU still barely managed to pull away.

[markstanco 12577]

The over and the line makes little sense. 62 and 4.5 or whatever it is?

Give the points and take the under here. QE throws 20 times max.

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

11 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I don’t care about aggy. The asterisk thing is as humorous as it is absurd. 

Wait until you see how Alabama is no longer down and is, in fact, probably the second best team in the country now that Saban has set Millroe straight. 

[Fud 9552]

9 hours ago, markstanco said:

The over and the line makes little sense. 62 and 4.5 or whatever it is?

Give the points and take the under here. QE throws 20 times max.

The line is now -6 to -6.5

[cochamps 1879]

10 hours ago, markstanco said:

The over and the line makes little sense. 62 and 4.5 or whatever it is?

Give the points and take the under here. QE throws 20 times max.

I'll take the over on 20 passes for the Horns.

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

2 minutes ago, cochamps said:

I'll take the over on 20 passes for the Horns.

I suspect the plan, such as it is, will be to try to bring the resources to try to keep Brooks from gashing them and see if Ewers can do anything about it. I’ve been wrong before, though. 

[Red Five 40859]

If Ewers throws fewer than 20 passes then this is either a legendary beat down and he's out of the game mid-third quarter, or something bad has happened. 

[closetojumping 62729]

The weekly media slide towards whatever underdog Texas is playing has already begun. It is somewhat comical. 

This morning, Dvoracek predictably was pushing OU as criminally underrated and then started citing the basic stats of scoring offense and scoring defense. 

Following that, Childers and Neuheisel have been singing the praises of the underdog and superhero Dillon Gabriel. 

I assume by the end of the week that, yet again, the underdog against Texas will be the trendy pick on most of the shows. I love it. 

[Js1 85338]

13 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The weekly media slide towards whatever underdog Texas is playing has already begun. It is somewhat comical. 

This morning, Dvoracek predictably was pushing OU as criminally underrated and then started citing the basic stats of scoring offense and scoring defense. 

Following that, Childers and Neuheisel have been singing the praises of the underdog and superhero Dillon Gabriel. 

I assume by the end of the week that, yet again, the underdog against Texas will be the trendy pick on most of the shows. I love it. 

Embrace the hate 

[ztejas 43452]

13 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

Yup and they struggled with SMU. Funny thing is that this is a bad SMU squad. They’re on a rebuild year with a new QB and defense and OU still barely managed to pull away.

Meh. This isn't a "bad" SMU team. The D is actually pretty good as is the OL. Stone doesn't appear to be a very good QB and Lashlee can't call a competent series of plays to save his fucking life. Were those things both not true OU could have fucked around and lost in Norman. As someone mentioned upthread they were outgained in that game.

The two teams OU has played that have P5 talent on the roster - SMU and Cincy - they have failed to score 30 points*. I think this OU team is better than last year's - mainly on D - but the two data points they have for playing a team with a pulse are pretty uninspiring. 

Meanwhile, Texas is already seasoned coming into this game and is better at literally every position on the field than SMU or Cincy. SMU has one DL player that would make Texas' rotation and maybe someone on the OL would be on Texas' two-deep but it is a completely different level of talent. 

The only thing playing in OU's favor this weekend is the history of this game producing weird results. I don't buy that they're going to play harder or more focused or some shit because they got their ass beat last year. In fact, I'd argue 49-0 bodes poorly for them as its going to be the same staffs on the sidelines. See: Stoops winning 5 straight or Mack then winning 4 of 5. Sometimes you just get the other team's number for a few seasons.

*also ISU - but they appear to be a flaming trainwreck this season. I know for a fact SMU has more talent on D than they do - not sure about the Bearcats.

Edited October 3, 2023 by ztejas

[Skipper 6135]

15 minutes ago, ztejas said:

In fact, I'd argue 49-0 bodes poorly for them as its going to be the same staffs on the sidelines. See: Stoops winning 5 straight or Mack then winning 4 of 5. Sometimes you just get the other team's number for a few seasons.

Yep, this series has always gone in streaks.   Hoping last year was the start of one for us.

[Big_kat 334]

15 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

If this Texas and OU team played 1000 times, Texas would win 1000 out of 1000.... Why you ask? Because OU SUCKS

 

 

It always makes me laugh at how they could give 2 shits about the girl that got tossed from the wagon.  

[Sal 1088]

Texas matches up favorably with OU. Our line can get pressure on Gabriel, especially since I don’t think they’ll run it well. If I wanted to poke one major hole in the analytics favoring OU, it’s how they’re overrating Gabriel. His YPA is great so far, but I’m not a believer because he hasn’t done it with a defense putting him in conflict. I also wasn’t a believer in KU’s extremely high third down efficiency, and we saw how that went last week. Schematically, PK knows how to stop a modified Briles offense and has proven it over and over. He can run some cover 2 with tight corners but softer safeties to prevent them from going over the top. He can bring pressure up the middle or confuse the OL with Hill as a free rusher.

Ewers is great in big time games because he doesn’t make a lot of costly turnovers and trusts his playmakers. I think we’ll be able to run the ball well, but if OU sells out to stop it, Quinn will cook. Texas has talent and depth all over the field; while OU has more talent than last season, it’s not comparable to Texas.
 

Give me the Horns 34-24. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Sal

[Frank Drebin 5638]

Just need to take care of the ball.  Turnovers and fuckery from Mar are the only concerns I have.

[Constant 6732]

6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Yep, this series has always gone in streaks.   Hoping last year was the start of one for us.

Texas hasn’t won three in a row since the late 90’s. Colt and Vince won two in a row each, but it hasn’t been done since ‘08-‘09. 
 

Texas’ streaks are awfully short. 

[BabaYaga 15298]

15 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

As they play with a backup QB and are heading into the meat of their schedule.  

[MissingInAction 25077]

We win by 20, and it would be worse for ou sucks if not for a couple of freak plays.

I swear there is some strange ju-ju in that stadium. I don't know if it's the history or what, but it can't be denied or ignored.

[Frank Drebin 5638]

2 minutes ago, Constant said:

Texas hasn’t won three in a row since the late 90’s. Colt and Vince won two in a row each, but it hasn’t been done since ‘08-‘09. 
 

Texas’ streaks are awfully short. 

Not sure how relevant that is.  Stoops, Mangino, Wilson, Riley, etc. are not on OU's sideline anymore.

Texas can lose this game.  But it is unlikely.

And could easily be a three-game streak if OU manages to make the conference title game.

[Skipper 6135]

10 minutes ago, Constant said:

Texas hasn’t won three in a row since the late 90’s. Colt and Vince won two in a row each, but it hasn’t been done since ‘08-‘09. 
 

Texas’ streaks are awfully short. 

Well if you look at the overall history it just means we're due.

[TexasMan 10891]

Line is up to 6.5

Over/under is down to 60

[Skipper 6135]

1 minute ago, TexasMan said:

Line is up to 6.5

Over/under is down to 60

I would probably still take the under.  Will be interesting to see where both close.  I heard the same thing CTJ heard this AM.  It does seem like the "nobody is talking about OU, they are playing with house money and have Texas right where they want them" media narrative is starting to take hold.  Wonder if that might push the line back down.

[Red Five 40859]

3 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

Line is up to 6.5

Over/under is down to 60

I said 37-23 Texas, so yeah, 60 sounds about right. 

[UTEX_ME 4762]

Have to score TDs in the redzone. 

[MotownHorn 1762]

Hoping JT is healthy enough to play. Whole different offense with him out there.

[BabaYaga 15298]

12 minutes ago, Sal said:

Texas matches up favorably with OU. Our line can get pressure on Gabriel, especially since I don’t think they’ll run it well. If I wanted to poke one major hole in the analytics favoring OU, it’s how they’re overrating Gabriel. His YPA is great so far, but I’m not a believer because he hasn’t done it with a defense putting him in conflict. I also wasn’t a believer in KU’s extremely high third down efficiency, and we saw how that went last week.
 

Schematically, PK knows how to stop a modified Briles offense and has proven it over and over. Ewers is great in big time games because he doesn’t make a lot of costly turnovers and trusts his playmakers. I think we’ll be able to run the ball well, but if OU sells out to stop it, Quinn will cook. Texas has talent and depth all over the field; while OU has more talent than last season, it’s not comparable to Texas.
 

Give me the Horns 34-24. 

The only team with a pulse OU has played is Cinci.  That was a boring 20-6 game.  Cinci ha a decent defense and pedestrian offense that relies heavily on the run (statistically).  OU was dropping 50+ on everyone until that game.  

Rushing Defense:

• Cinci:  25th
• TX:  17th
• OU:  28th

Total Defense

• Cinci:  39th
• TX:  17th
• OU:  30th

Rushing Offense:

• Cinci:  10th
• TX:  65th
• OU:  64th

Passing Offense:

• Cinci:  43rd
• TX:  25th
• OU:  7th

Passing yds allowed:

• Cinci:  66th
• TX:  36th
• OU:  51st

As stated, OU can stack up on a one-dimensional team and sell out (as ATM does), but against a complete team, they are vulnerable and sure and shit they are not going to hold Texas to 20pts in this game

1 minute ago, MotownHorn said:

Hoping JT is healthy enough to play. Whole different offense with him out there.

[Constant 6732]

24 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

Not sure how relevant that is.  Stoops, Mangino, Wilson, Riley, etc. are not on OU's sideline anymore.

Texas can lose this game.  But it is unlikely.

And could easily be a three-game streak if OU manages to make the conference title game.

I don’t have a lot of ammunition this year. I have to grasp at my irrelevant straws. 

[gofuckyourself 8240]

4 minutes ago, Constant said:

Texas hasn’t won three in a row since the late 90’s. Colt and Vince won two in a row each, but it hasn’t been done since ‘08-‘09. 
 

Texas’ streaks are awfully short. 

63-50-5

OU still needs a few more streaks, other than the stains in their drawers from last year.

And the winning streaks aren't that disproportionate actually.

Most memorable, or forgettable, was Mack's early 2000s. Beyond that, Texas was knocking off three or four in a row and 5 of 7 etc. The greatest streak arguably being 89 to 92. All were unranked Texas teams beating ranked OU teams.

What doesn't happen much? Lower ranked OU beating higher ranked Texas. That's very rare in the series.

Higher ranked OU won four in a row of late. Even those had two close wins where Texas dominated much of the game and just couldn't finish.

Texas now has great athletes all over, a great defense and has been better and stronger on both sides as the game goes on.

64-50-5 after Saturday.

 

[BabaYaga 15298]

4 minutes ago, gofuckyourself said:

The greatest streak arguably being 89 to 92. All were unranked Texas teams beating ranked OU teams.

'94 was a good year as well

 

[Dark Horse 2280]

[derpyhorndog 2557]

1 hour ago, Sal said:

while OU has more talent than last season, it’s not comparable to Texas.

UT and OU have the exact same Blue Chip Ratio of 70%. Their average star rating (247 composite) over the last four cycles is actually slightly higher.

Could see an argument that their talent has not actually performed to potential at the level ours has.

However, strictly speaking to on-roster talent per industry rankings, both teams are comparable. 

[NoName 16352]

bunch more comparisons from ksu_FAN

 

and SP+ without preseason:

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by NoName

[6th Street 6407]

To be fair some out best players are 3 stars like Christian Jones, Byron Murphy and T Sweat. This is the kind of player devt we are used to seeing at OU but rarely at Texas. 

[Tex Long 4400]

16 minutes ago, derpyhorndog said:

However, strictly speaking to on-roster talent per industry rankings, both teams are comparable. 

"Comparable" doesn't mean what you seem to think it does. Any two teams are comparable. Whether the comparison is 1-to-1 or not is debatable. 

[Texas Wahoo 3397]

43 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

"Comparable" doesn't mean what you seem to think it does. Any two teams are comparable. Whether the comparison is 1-to-1 or not is debatable. 

Is this a bit?

[TXSooner518 2438]

1 hour ago, gofuckyourself said:

Higher ranked OU won four in a row of late. Even those had two close wins where Texas dominated much of the game and just couldn't finish.

What game in recent history has Texas dominated but OU won other than 2021?

[FWD 297]

1 hour ago, Dark Horse said:

And here I was just about to post my score prediction of 32.88-25.62.

[D3zii 3680]

I’m scratching my head. I’ve watched a few previews and you would sware Oklahoma played the Texas schedule and vice versa.  People saying “we don’t know with Texas” but “Oklahoma looks so dominant” like wtf am I missing something. Ima watch some OU games cause maybe I’m missing something and they’re really good. 

[lemonandaturd 4285]

2 minutes ago, D3zii said:

I’m scratching my head. I’ve watched a few previews and you would sware Oklahoma played the Texas schedule and vice versa.  People saying “we don’t know with Texas” but “Oklahoma looks so dominant” like wtf am I missing something. Ima watch some OU games cause maybe I’m missing something and they’re really good. 

OU sucks