Texas opens as a 5 point favorite v Oklahoma

[Billy Pilgrim 1,985]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I guess you're not aware of last year's game. 

Did we knock Rhett Bomar the fuck out too?

[BurgleBro 800]

19 hours ago, TotallyLegit said:

If they run him a lot, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Catalon who does the deed

Last game Their entire offense and ability to move the chains was gabriel running off broken and designed plays, until the very end of 2nd Q when Iowa State key control.

 

Hope Catalon watched that film closely

9 hours ago, Orange&White said:

 

Why are people on this site discussing knocking out Dillon Gabriel? Is it because of the stellar Texas history of facing ou backup QBs?

 

Prob bc they've been running him a lot in key situations. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,543]

I listened to a long preview with Sooner regard Gabe Ikard. 
 

He stated he was 3-1 against Texas at least 5 dozen times. 
 

After verbally blowing Venables for being on time to press conferences this season(dafuq?!), he gave his thoughts on Texas.

He’s not impressed with the Texas offense. Basically said we’re screwed if we can’t hit the deep or rip off a long run. He used some bullshit PFF metric to explain that we don’t run the ball well consistently. I’d say we ran the ball pretty damned consistently on that 7 minute drive to seal the Bama game. 
 

On defense, he alluded to Sorrell being a trash edge rusher. Said we don’t have any on the edge that can get after the QB. Most of skipped the good parts of the Bama game. He begrudgingly admitted to Sweat and Murphy being a problem inside. He was really impressed with Sweat’s agility, and Murphy’s push on passing downs. Likes our secondary. Never mentioned Ford. 
 

He very reluctantly acknowledged Texas is the more talented team, but OU could win if they force Ewers into mistakes and take away the big play. Also reluctantly admitted Texas isn’t soft. He said Sark’s pregame warm ups are the most intense he’s ever seen. 
 

He’s completely bought in :

- Gabriel being an elite, elite QB. You just don’t score 40 on Iowa State in the first half!

- He declared Venables has fixed the defense. Well, that was quick.

- Texas only won last year because Gabriel was hurt. 
 

In summary, Ikard sucks worse than James Hale. 

[cochamps 1,879]

5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I listened to a long preview with Sooner regard Gabe Ikard. 
 

He stated he was 3-1 against Texas at least 5 dozen times. 
 

After verbally blowing Venables for being on time to press conferences this season(dafuq?!), he gave his thoughts on Texas.

He’s not impressed with the Texas offense. Basically said we’re screwed if we can’t hit the deep or rip off a long run. He used some bullshit PFF metric to explain that we don’t run the ball well consistently. I’d say we ran the ball pretty damned consistently on that 7 minute drive to seal the Bama game. 
 

On defense, he alluded to Sorrell being a trash edge rusher. Said we don’t have any on the edge that can get after the QB. Most of skipped the good parts of the Bama game. He begrudgingly admitted to Sweat and Murphy being a problem inside. He was really impressed with Sweat’s agility, and Murphy’s push on passing downs. Likes our secondary. Never mentioned Ford. 
 

He very reluctantly acknowledged Texas is the more talented team, but OU could win if they force Ewers into mistakes and take away the big play. Also reluctantly admitted Texas isn’t soft. He said Sark’s pregame warm ups are the most intense he’s ever seen. 
 

He’s completely bought in :

- Gabriel being an elite, elite QB. You just don’t score 40 on Iowa State in the first half!

- He declared Venables has fixed the defense. Well, that was quick.

- Texas only won last year because Gabriel was hurt. 
 

In summary, Ikard sucks worse than James Hale. 

Guess maybe I should bet on the Horns.

[Hank_Hill 18,899]

Man, our offense has done pretty well despite many missed deep balls. That guy might be a dumb idiot.

[52-80 19,271]

23 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Brian Peppers done growd up

[Hard Times 302]

8 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I listened to a long preview with Sooner regard Gabe Ikard. 
 

He stated he was 3-1 against Texas at least 5 dozen times. 
 

After verbally blowing Venables for being on time to press conferences this season(dafuq?!), he gave his thoughts on Texas.

He’s not impressed with the Texas offense. Basically said we’re screwed if we can’t hit the deep or rip off a long run. He used some bullshit PFF metric to explain that we don’t run the ball well consistently. I’d say we ran the ball pretty damned consistently on that 7 minute drive to seal the Bama game. 
 

On defense, he alluded to Sorrell being a trash edge rusher. Said we don’t have any on the edge that can get after the QB. Most of skipped the good parts of the Bama game. He begrudgingly admitted to Sweat and Murphy being a problem inside. He was really impressed with Sweat’s agility, and Murphy’s push on passing downs. Likes our secondary. Never mentioned Ford. 
 

He very reluctantly acknowledged Texas is the more talented team, but OU could win if they force Ewers into mistakes and take away the big play. Also reluctantly admitted Texas isn’t soft. He said Sark’s pregame warm ups are the most intense he’s ever seen. 
 

He’s completely bought in :

- Gabriel being an elite, elite QB. You just don’t score 40 on Iowa State in the first half!

- He declared Venables has fixed the defense. Well, that was quick.

- Texas only won last year because Gabriel was hurt. 
 

In summary, Ikard sucks worse than James Hale. 

Yes, Gabriel woulda made a helluva linebacker in that game. Tackling Machine!!

[LTtxfan 49,378]

Saw 10-20mph winds possible during Saturday's game.  Will be interesting to see how that affects passing...  Texas o-line needs to kick ass to help Horns have a great rushing day!!! 🤘

[gmr548 16,617]

Saw 10-20mph winds possible during Saturday's game.  Will be interesting to see how that affects passing...  Texas o-line needs to kick ass to help Horns have a great rushing day!!!

As the forecast stands now I don’t think wind will be much of a factor. 10mph is a normal breeze in Dallas and gusts aren’t even projected to hit 20mph during the day (it will be windier overnight).

[bluto 4,943]

Also the stadium does a decent job of protecting vs wind being double decked all around

[Hookem2147 21,369]

Line is down from 6.5 to 5.5 in a lot of spots this afternoon despite almost 80% of bets and 80% of the money being on Texas.

[Doc Daneeka 6,769]

9 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Line is down from 6.5 to 5.5 in a lot of spots this afternoon despite almost 80% of bets and 80% of the money being on Texas.

 

[Michael Knight 12,995]

24 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Line is down from 6.5 to 5.5 in a lot of spots this afternoon despite almost 80% of bets and 80% of the money being on Texas.

Thursday is when the money comes in

[Hookem2147 21,369]

10 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Thursday is when the money comes in

 

 

[Hookem2147 21,369]

Down to -5 now at a lot of books

[closetojumping 62,891]

2 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Down to -5 now at a lot of books

Sharp money is on Texas at this point. Below in plain text is what Action Network is tracking. 3 key signals are flashing for the game and they are all on Texas. Could change, but this is as of right now:

SIGNALS

OU

There are no signals yet for OU
Check back later

TEX

Sharp Action

An indication that professionals have wagered on a specific side, causing sportsbooks to move the line.

Signal Strength: We've tracked sharp money coming in on TEX.

PRO Systems

Profitable betting systems that are back-tested over a large sample size and curated by our experts.

Signal Strength: There's one PRO System on TEX -- Ranked Matchups (PRO) -- which has a 57% win rate and a 12% ROI.

Model Projections

When there’s a notable difference between our projected line and the odds listed by sportsbooks.

Signal Strength: Our NCAAF power ratings make the spread TEX -7.7

[Hookem2147 21,369]

5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Sharp money is on Texas at this point. Below in plain text is what Action Network is tracking. 3 key signals are flashing for the game and they are all on Texas. Could change, but this is as of right now:

SIGNALS

OU

There are no signals yet for OU
Check back later

TEX

Sharp Action

An indication that professionals have wagered on a specific side, causing sportsbooks to move the line.

Signal Strength: We've tracked sharp money coming in on TEX.

PRO Systems

Profitable betting systems that are back-tested over a large sample size and curated by our experts.

Signal Strength: There's one PRO System on TEX -- Ranked Matchups (PRO) -- which has a 57% win rate and a 12% ROI.

Model Projections

When there’s a notable difference between our projected line and the odds listed by sportsbooks.

Signal Strength: Our NCAAF power ratings make the spread TEX -7.7

Interesting. Don't doubt that data, just doesn't seem to completely match with the line suddenly moving in the opposite direction and dropping 1.5 points today.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Hookem2147

[billfromlaketravis 11,543]

Anybody catch the handicapper segment on ESPN 975 Houston today at around 4? Their Vegas guy was about to give his OU-Texas pick, and of course my wife calls. 
 

He picked Mizzou over LSU and aggy over Bama. 24-20 aggy. He raved about their defensive line depth. 

[Chili dog 1,787]

Not sure this is legit. Seeing 5-5.5 most places. Seems like a bargain if it’s legit.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Chili dog

[Chopper 17,295]

22 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I listened to a long preview with Sooner regard Gabe Ikard.

Sounds like the mobilehomatard basically repeated all the mouth breathing bullshit he said last year.

[Cairn Horn88 8,285]

From a Bama poster on secrant:

re: Texas...How sure are you all about this game? Posted on 10/5/23 at 3:57 pm to HogPharmer

I can say that Texas live and in person was extremely impressive. Physically, mentally, how well coached they were, how explosive they were. We didn't play a great game but we competed pretty hard and Texas just refused to let go of the football game. That's a damn good team.

[gmr548 16,617]

From a Bama poster on secrant:
re: Texas...How sure are you all about this game? Posted on 10/5/23 at 3:57 pm to HogPharmer I can say that Texas live and in person was extremely impressive. Physically, mentally, how well coached they were, how explosive they were. We didn't play a great game but we competed pretty hard and Texas just refused to let go of the football game. That's a damn good team.

If SEC Rant be for us, who can be against us?

[TexasMan 10,989]

Yeah the line is back to 5.

Every site I've been to has had predicted scores of Oklahoma winning by between 2-7 points, and 70% of the money coming in on Texas. That's a lethal combination for us, but Vegas has been wrong before. 

[billfromlaketravis 11,543]

18 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

Yeah the line is back to 5.

Every site I've been to has had predicted scores of Oklahoma winning by between 2-7 points, and 70% of the money coming in on Texas. That's a lethal combination for us, but Vegas has been wrong before. 

A lot of cute offensive statistics are popping up like mushrooms. Run success rate. Redzone efficiency. A lot of PFF and FPI bullshit.

OU would have plenty of warts if they had played Georgia. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by billfromlaketravis

[Cairn Horn88 8,285]

Heard that Sanders had a great practice today and will be playing Sat!

[ztejas 43,549]

There is no reason the spread shouldn't be a touchdown. We are just straight up better than this OU team and they are totally untested coming into this one. They may have a brilliant gameplan and come out with their hair on fire but you can't scout this Texas front 7. Everyone has a gameplan until Sweat and Murphy hit them in the mouth for four quarters. What would the line be if OU was playing Bama in Tuscaloosa this week? It wouldn't be a pick 'em I can tell you that much.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter because the spread for this game is almost never accurate. Nothing but OU winning by 2 scores would shock me, but I will be certainly be surprised if they win. I'm guessing if the spread isn't accurate it's because we whip their ass again. We shall see. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by ztejas

[ztejas 43,549]

Back to 5.5 on Ceasars.

[LTtxfan 49,378]

13 hours ago, TexasMan said:

Yeah the line is back to 5.  Every site I've been to has had predicted scores of Oklahoma winning by between 2-7 points, and 70% of the money coming in on Texas. That's a lethal combination for us, but Vegas has been wrong before. 

Saw 6 1/2 to 7 earlier in the week.  But now this morning 5 or 5 1/2

[HOOK'EMHOOAH 1,610]

On 10/4/2023 at 8:50 AM, Billy Pilgrim said:

Did we knock Rhett Bomar the fuck out too?

Legend has it that he is still laying on the grass in the Cotton Bowl...

[closetojumping 62,891]

18 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Interesting. Don't doubt that data, just doesn't seem to completely match with the line suddenly moving in the opposite direction and dropping 1.5 points today.

It's back to -5.5 and the sharp money tilt is now leaning on the OU side. Curious to see how it wraps tomorrow morning.

[Post Oak 20,289]

15 hours ago, gmr548 said:

If SEC Rant be for us, who can be against us?

Oh you know...

[HOOK'EMHOOAH 1,610]

2 hours ago, Post Oak said:

Oh you know...

This 'band of boys' will never have to worry about anyone else crawling into bed with their wives.

 

NTTIATWWI - which of them is tasked as the wife, I guess is up to them and/or perhaps a lottery.

[TexasMan 10,989]

Line is now at 4.5 

[ztejas 43,549]

Ceasar's/ESPN is still at -5.5.

Edited October 6, 2023 by ztejas

[jw4381 3,096]

What was the line last year?

[Mikey4 2,476]

3 minutes ago, jw4381 said:

What was the line last year?

IIRC, we may have covered

[Constant 6,755]

33 minutes ago, jw4381 said:

What was the line last year?

Wish it was -49.5. 

[Huckleberry 33,115]

Closed at Texas -7.5 last year. 

[jw4381 3,096]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

Closed at Texas -7.5 last year. 

[89Horn 1,557]

9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Closed at Texas -7.5 last year. 

So Texas only wins by 45 tommorow?

[jw4381 3,096]

5 minutes ago, 89Horn said:

So Texas only wins by 45 tommorow?

[Hermanator 7,182]

Heard Quan tell a story about his official visit to OU where he witnessed his host player tell his coach nope when asked to help another player who was nursing an injury carry some of his gear. Said it looked like OU was showing cracks in their team culture and that sealed him to Texas. 

 

OU still sucks

[Sgt Hulk 13,853]

For us non bettering types. WhTs all this line moving point spread shit mean I’m terms of Texas beating the fuck out of Ou

[Hermanator 7,182]

22 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

For us non bettering types. WhTs all this line moving point spread shit mean I’m terms of Texas beating the fuck out of Ou

The same it did for Texas beating down Alabama last month

[Hank_Hill 18,899]

Usually hold off on betting this game…but fuck it I don’t think they stand a chance. 3 units.

[LTtxfan 49,378]

4 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

For us non bettering types. WhTs all this line moving point spread shit mean I’m terms of Texas beating the fuck out of Ou

In the immortal words of Bill Bradley:

"We don't give a shit"  🤘

translation -- Texas is gonna kick ou's ass !!

[Mother mopar 3,325]

Heard Quan tell a story about his official visit to OU where he witnessed his host player tell his coach nope when asked to help another player who was nursing an injury carry some of his gear. Said it looked like OU was showing cracks in their team culture and that sealed him to Texas. 
 
OU still sucks

I believe he told that story yesterday on the Ilivestream as well. Quan is such a great ambassador.

[Magabro 172]

Heard Quan tell a story about his official visit to OU where he witnessed his host player tell his coach nope when asked to help another player who was nursing an injury carry some of his gear. Said it looked like OU was showing cracks in their team culture and that sealed him to Texas. 
 
OU still sucks

Yup and that POS that didn’t help was everyone’s favorite. Rhett Bomar

[MirrOlure 14,870]

For us non bettering types. WhTs all this line moving point spread shit mean I’m terms of Texas beating the fuck out of Ou

It means we’re gonna beat the fuck out of OU

[closetojumping 62,891]

2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

In the immortal words of Bill Bradley:

"We don't give a shit"  🤘

translation -- Texas is gonna kick ou's ass !!

You can’t be quote someone and then fuck the quote up, Spambi. Good lord.