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Texas opens as a 5 point favorite v Oklahoma

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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2 hours ago, Treefidy said:

TX/OU both undefeated in week six is historically a top 5 matchup.  And I think OU blowing out their weak schedule doesn’t look worse than UGA, Michigan or UW who haven’t played anyone and Pedo only having played a meh WVU.

Okay. Not this year and the reason they are a fringey Top 10 team is because of last year. I suspect you know this. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43445

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1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This board alone should move the line to -10. Last time UT won 2 in a row was 2008-2009. It’s time.  Lubed and ready.  

You're not going to get more than 7.5.

You've watched more of these than I have. Vegas is always terrified of this line and almost never gets it right. I bet there's a VP at MGM Grand saying "Texas is going to fucking kill them - it should be -12" and then someone says "Sir we can bump it if you really want" and he goes "No, fuck it, I'm probably wrong"

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

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16 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

You Cant Fool Me Sheldon Cooper GIF by CBS

I laughed, but I do see a UT win, and not by 50 but likely not too much in doubt by the 4th.  Happy with the progress I've seen from Venables but they're catching a UT team with everything coming together at the right time.  Also, it's been a long ass time coming.  

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Texasrocks

Texasrocks 2134

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I haven't watched OU at all this year, but so far this season doesn't look that different than last season. Last year they won their first three games by 30+, including a road win against Nebraska, and were ranked in the top 10. And then lost at home to the first good team they played (KSU). So far, it seems the biggest difference between this year and last year is an easier schedule through 5 games.

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Js1

Js1 85336

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1 minute ago, Texasrocks said:

I haven't watched OU at all this year, but so far this season doesn't look that different than last season. Last year they won their first three games by 30+, including a road win against Nebraska, and were ranked in the top 10. And then lost at home to the first good team they played (KSU). So far, it seems the biggest difference between this year and last year is an easier schedule through 5 games.

Exactly my thoughts. Kind of like KU. Didn’t play anyone that good, defense wasn’t very good in metrics, and offense faced bad defenses up until Texas. We are going to humble some teams who haven’t been challenged much defensively. 

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z009

z009 65

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Gabriel is likely the best quarterback we have faced this year, and they have a very capable receiving corps that can expose some of the flaws of our secondary. Also, they have literally nothing to lose in this game. Everyone will be picking us to win, taking all of the pressure off of OU in this game. The worst case-scenario for them is that they're 5-1 with a very winnable schedule the rest of the way. I have a feeling that they will throw the kitchen sink at us in this game, and I hope we are ready to match that level of intensity. I hope the team does not go out there expecting OU to roll over and die again. They have likely been preparing for this game since they got back home from the game on October 8, 2022. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62720

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5 minutes ago, z009 said:

Gabriel is likely the best quarterback we have faced this year, and they have a very capable receiving corps that can expose some of the flaws of our secondary. Also, they have literally nothing to lose in this game. Everyone will be picking us to win, taking all of the pressure off of OU in this game. The worst case-scenario for them is that they're 5-1 with a very winnable schedule the rest of the way. I have a feeling that they will throw the kitchen sink at us in this game, and I hope we are ready to match that level of intensity. I hope the team does not go out there expecting OU to roll over and die again. They have likely been preparing for this game since they got back home from the game on October 8, 2022. 

They don't have a kitchen sink to throw, man. They have nothing of concern at TB or TE. The receivers are pedestrian. The QB is good, but he isn't great. The OL sucks, particularly in the running game. The OC wants to runs screens, passes to the flats, and go routes deep while doing RPO with a near midget. Texas has played the Veer and Shoot and Lebby isn't some seasoned playcaller. He shit himself last year with more playmakers available, albeit with a mannequin at QB.

People are seriously overrating what OU is bringing to the table on offense this year. It's fun to watch.

The OU D is better, but that isn't saying a whole lot, unto itself. We'll see how they handle things on Saturday, but if the game is close, it's largely because their D is good enough to keep the score down. I don't see how this is some mutually high-scoring shootout.

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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4925

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16 hours ago, WBT said:

-5 seems a little disrespectful

Well than bet it but I agree with Bobby Burton when he says he has watched Texas v OU way to long and knows that one does not know how it is going to go until the game starts. In my experience if one team is flat or poorly coached it is going to get its' ass kicked badly. If it is a dog fight it is usually a dog fight for 4 quarters. Few have been the games in which it is a dog fight at the start and the better team just takes over toward the end. Best stretch 1989 to 1992 those were fun unexpected wins.

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z009

z009 65

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1 minute ago, Eastwood said:

Iowa State seemed to be able to run at will against OU. If the same OU run defense shows up on Saturday, it’s going to be a huge day for Baxter and Brooks (who I now realize sounds like a custom suit company).

How many times have we seen an opponent look mediocre the week before they play us only for them to play lights out against us? Several games against TCU and Tech in recent history come to mind. 

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Skipper

Skipper 6135

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2 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Well than bet it but I agree with Bobby Burton when he says he has watched Texas v OU way to long and knows that one does not know how it is going to go until the game starts. In my experience if one team is flat or poorly coached it is going to get its' ass kicked badly. If it is a dog fight it is usually a dog fight for 4 quarters. Few have been the games in which it is a dog fight at the start and the better team just takes over toward the end. Best stretch 1989 to 1992 those were fun unexpected wins.

This is where I'm at.  This will be my 25th straight and 26th total. Have seen a lot of weird shit.   We've even seen both teams completely flip slow starts ('99 and '21 off the top of my head).

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Duane Moore

Duane Moore 5237

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11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Texas has played the Veer and Shoot and Lebby isn't some seasoned playcaller.

When was the last time we played a veer and shoot offense? OU last year and Arkansas 2021 are coming to mind, but OU didn’t have a QB to run it and our defense was so different in 2021 that I don’t know how much we can apply it to this one, but the results certainly weren’t good. I’m probably missing a couple. 

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Js1

Js1 85336

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16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

They don't have a kitchen sink to throw, man. They have nothing of concern at TB or TE. The receivers are pedestrian. The QB is good, but he isn't great. The OL sucks, particularly in the running game. The OC wants to runs screens, passes to the flats, and go routes deep while doing RPO with a near midget. Texas has played the Veer and Shoot and Lebby isn't some seasoned playcaller. He shit himself last year with more playmakers available, albeit with a mannequin at QB.

People are seriously overrating what OU is bringing to the table on offense this year. It's fun to watch.

The OU D is better, but that isn't saying a whole lot, unto itself. We'll see how they handle things on Saturday, but if the game is close, it's largely because their D is good enough to keep the score down. I don't see how this is some mutually high-scoring shootout.

I trust you completely. Oh Captain, my Captain 

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Duane Moore

Duane Moore 5237

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2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

This is where I'm at.  This will be my 25th straight and 26th total. Have seen a lot of weird shit.   We've even seen both teams completely flip slow starts ('99 and '21 off the top of my head).

In 1995 we blew a 21-0 lead and ended up tying against Schellenberger’s mediocre team. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62720

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10 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

When was the last time we played a veer and shoot offense? OU last year and Arkansas 2021 are coming to mind, but OU didn’t have a QB to run it and our defense was so different in 2021 that I don’t know how much we can apply it to this one, but the results certainly weren’t good. I’m probably missing a couple. 

How hard do you think Lebby's offense is to crack? You can google decent gameplans against that offense. They'll also be playing a version of it against TCU. You need the horses in the backfield and outside to make it go and that isn't where OU is right now. If OU and Lebby outscheme the Texas defense, it will border on the miraculous. He's a meatheaded buffoon who has been drafting off of the success of others his entire career. 

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Skipper

Skipper 6135

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Yeah, I just haven't watched OU enough this year to date, but that offense really needs a strong running game to work as intended.  Their stats to date speak for themselves. As long as we control the LOS like we should, I fully expect our D to be able to force DG into bad decisions.

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Constant

Constant 6732

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2 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

Their big tight end Stogner that transferred to USCe a couple years ago  transferred back to OU for this season. Hopefully we can get someone tall to cover him like Ryan Watts if he’s healthy 

He’s played like shit this season so far. Slow and soft. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11964

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59 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Iowa State seemed to be able to run at will against OU. If the same OU run defense shows up on Saturday, it’s going to be a huge day for Baxter and Brooks (who I now realize sounds like a custom suit company).

 

Hopefully It's Baxter, Brooks, and Blue.....

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gurt

gurt 748

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one thing I hope we're preparing for is the triple option that KU ran on us.  Not something you see too often these days and we were not ready for it.  I could see OU going to that early with Gabriel to get their run game going

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62720

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2 minutes ago, gurt said:

one thing I hope we're preparing for is the triple option that KU ran on us.  Not something you see too often these days and we were not ready for it.  I could see OU going to that early with Gabriel to get their run game going

1) You can't just whip out the triple option. If they've been installing it since the spring, fine. Doesn't seem like it.

2) KU's TBs are flatly better than what OU is putting on the field. OU has a few higher ranked guys that Murray isn't playing much. 

3) They'd better be damned sure that Jackson Arnold is ready to roll, given the fragility of Gabriel, if they're going to be running DG a bunch.

I remember when OU announced ahead of the 1998 that they were going "Back to the Bone!" and came out trying to run the wishbone. God. Those were good times.

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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9 minutes ago, gurt said:

one thing I hope we're preparing for is the triple option that KU ran on us.  Not something you see too often these days and we were not ready for it.  I could see OU going to that early with Gabriel to get their run game going

“Separate Gabriel’s soul from his body whether he pitches or not.”

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Park Gothic

Park Gothic 5038

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10 minutes ago, gurt said:

one thing I hope we're preparing for is the triple option that KU ran on us.  Not something you see too often these days and we were not ready for it.  I could see OU going to that early with Gabriel to get their run game going

I hope you're right, because that means their coaches are dumb as shit.

The triple option is already part of KU's offense and they practice it like they practice any other play in their book. 

The triple option is emphatically not part of OU's offense. Any time they've spent installing a gimmick offense for a single game is time they've wasted not repping the rest of their playbook. The triple option isn't something you can just learn, it requires a QB who can make a fast read and everyone has to be assignment sound. Plus it wouldn't even be effective, with the way Texas' d line can move laterally. KU may be the best "option" offense in the country and it didn't do them much good against us. 

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