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Texas opens as a 5 point favorite v Oklahoma

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,455

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Posted
34 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

Their big tight end Stogner that transferred to USCe a couple years ago  transferred back to OU for this season. Hopefully we can get someone tall to cover him like Ryan Watts if he’s healthy 

He's borderline worthless. I disagree with CTJ on the caliber of OU's RB and WR, but TE is a glaring weakness. 

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20,497

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1 minute ago, TXSooner518 said:

He's borderline worthless. I disagree with CTJ on the caliber of OU's RB and WR, but TE is a glaring weakness. 

OU has some speed at the WR. The one thing I am a bit nervous about going in is how effectively we manage to defend deep shots. I have a feeling that Lebby is going to dial them up as much as he can. Fortunately, Gabriel seems to wilt a little bit against good defenses. 

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,455

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2 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

OU has some speed at the WR. The one thing I am a bit nervous about going in is how effectively we manage to defend deep shots. I have a feeling that Lebby is going to dial them up as much as he can. Fortunately, Gabriel seems to wilt a little bit against good defenses. 

OU's WR blocking has also been really really good so far this season. Andrel Anthony is a playmaker, Nic Anderson is going to be a beast, Gibson is excellent now that he learned how to catch, and Stoops is really really reliable and tough. I think people will be surprised considerably if they think OU's WR are mid. 

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OU Sucks

OU Sucks 9,392

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16 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Wouldn't mind seeing J Ford put a big hit on 9th year senior Drake Stoops on a crossing route. 

Targeting, #41, defense, 15 yard penalty, automatic first down [on a 3rd and 37].  The targeting is under review.

After review, targeting stands. #41 is disqualified. /fuckbig12refs

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Red Five

Red Five 41,738

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Just now, TXSooner518 said:

OU's WR blocking has also been really really good so far this season. Andrel Anthony is a playmaker, Nic Anderson is going to be a beast, Gibson is excellent now that he learned how to catch, and Stoops is really really reliable and tough. I think people will be surprised considerably if they think OU's WR are mid. 

I wonder how they'll react to playing a defense for the first time this season. 

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20,497

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Just now, OU Sucks said:

Targeting, #41, defense, 15 yard penalty, automatic first down [on a 3rd and 37].  The targeting is under review.

After review, targeting stands. #41 is disqualified. /fuckbig12refs

You want to waste Ford on Drake Stoops? Also, is it considered targeting if it is against another team's head coach? asking for a friend. 

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Constant

Constant 6,886

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6 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

OU's WR blocking has also been really really good so far this season. Andrel Anthony is a playmaker, Nic Anderson is going to be a beast, Gibson is excellent now that he learned how to catch, and Stoops is really really reliable and tough. I think people will be surprised considerably if they think OU's WR are mid. 

Emmett Jones has been a game changer. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 65,428

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4 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

OU's WR blocking has also been really really good so far this season. Andrel Anthony is a playmaker, Nic Anderson is going to be a beast, Gibson is excellent now that he learned how to catch, and Stoops is really really reliable and tough. I think people will be surprised considerably if they think OU's WR are mid. 

I think such things are relative. Is the OU receiving corps better than Wyoming's? You bet. They are not better than the KU WR corps. KU has size, speed and experience. Baylor is far faster. I said before the season and heading into the Bama game that Bama didn't have the same kind of WRs that usually scare teams. And they didn't. They have a similar unit to OU.

OU, Clemson, Bama, Georgia and Michigan, uncharacteristically, do not have WR corps that are going to keep DCs up at night this year. I've been saying that before this season started. It holds true. So, yeah, the OU WR corps has looked pretty good against a bunch of mediocre to terrible opponent secondaries. Anthony, Anderson, and Farooq are all fine WRs for a P5 program. Are any of those guys WR1 for a title contender? They shouldn't be. Stoops is a fine little possession guy when he's healthy. Using him on jet sweeps and reverses is always a choice, I guess. 

As to the TBs, you have a bunch of guys named Bob at TB. OU coaches hyped Barnes all year last to the media covering them that he'd be the next big thing. Where is he? Major is okay. The walk-on juco guy isn't. 

Not having a TE worth a fuck is a problem. Not having an H-back that anyone gives a shit about is a problem. 

When OU has been really good on offense, they had sneaky good H-backs that were a pain in the ass when everyone else was accounted for, a ridiculously reliable TE, tough bullies at TB, and a WR corps that could hurt you at every level and wanted the ball in their hands in order to put on a show. I see none of those types on this roster. Separate from that, the rape enabler you guys are paying at OC is quite the fall from the likes of Lincoln Riley, Mike Leach, Kevin Wilson and Josh Heupal (I know y'all thought Heupal sucked, but you'd take him right now over Lebby). 

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Constant

Constant 6,886

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2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

It's October, and Oklahoma has not played a team with a win over a P5 school. 

Doesn’t change the fact that the statement ‘OU can’t stop the run’ is inaccurate. They have stopped the run. 

6 minutes ago, Red Five said:

It's October, and Oklahoma has not played a team with a win over a P5 school. 

Cincinnati beat Pitt which is in the ACC.  

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Frank Drebin

Frank Drebin 5,835

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4 minutes ago, hornian said:

Well there you have it. Texas is better at stopping the run. Res ipsa Ioquitur. 

They did shut down Arkansas State and Tulsa.  ISU got them for 5.6 a carry.

Texas only loses to OU if we are -2 in turnovers.  Texas is just the better team, OU has not been tested, and Gabriel is average as shit against teams with a pulse on defense.

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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3,386

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OU has some speed at the WR. The one thing I am a bit nervous about going in is how effectively we manage to defend deep shots. I have a feeling that Lebby is going to dial them up as much as he can. Fortunately, Gabriel seems to wilt a little bit against good defenses. 
This is going to be Muhammad's breakout game if so. He will bait their WRs and has the elite speed to house one if they wanna throw it deep.
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Js1

Js1 87,185

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15 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I hope this guy is trolling.   JFC if that isn't the biggest Fuck You from the Big 12 if true.

It's the biggest Big 12 game of the weekend.  It was always going to be Mar, I said this day's ago. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15,514

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34 minutes ago, Constant said:

Oklahoma has allowed 3.2 YPC. Texas has allowed 3.1. 

Lol, I hope the OU coaching staff evaluates stats like you. 

Our top 3 RBs might start on any team you've played so far. The only questionable team might be SMU with Knighton and Brooks and Baxter are much more talented than he is. 

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Constant

Constant 6,886

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1 minute ago, Zeus said:

Lulz

stats comparison

I hope blow U makes their whole gameplan around stupid stats like this

 

OU is a flawed 9-10 win team. There are more scenarios where I see Texas winning than OU. Probably 70/30 or 60/40 in my opinion. 
 

But some of the justifications for the confidence here can be pretty stupid. The statement was made that Oklahoma can’t stop the run. They have stopped the run. 

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Fumbles

Fumbles 299

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3 minutes ago, Constant said:

OU is a flawed 9-10 win team. There are more scenarios where I see Texas winning than OU. Probably 70/30 or 60/40 in my opinion. 
 

But some of the justifications for the confidence here can be pretty stupid. The statement was made that Oklahoma can’t stop the run. They have stopped the run. 

ISU had 5.56 per carry against your defense.  And they are wretched.  If you want to pin your hopes for the RRS on the stats your defense put up against Tulsa and Arkansas State, don’t be shocked when people laugh at you.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15,514

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I think OU will likely have the same mindset as Constant. 

"We can stop the run so we're going to protect the secondary." They're going to find out that the Texas OL and RBs are a lot different than fucking Cincinnati, SMU, and Iowa State. 

The most improved area on this Texas team is run blocking. I hope to god OU thinks they're all worldly at stopping the run. 

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Atticus

Atticus 4,216

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1 hour ago, perfectchaos007 said:

Their big tight end Stogner that transferred to USCe a couple years ago  transferred back to OU for this season. Hopefully we can get someone tall to cover him like Ryan Watts if he’s healthy 

You know what offense we’re going up against, right? They don’t really use the tight end like that. 

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,455

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7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Did you forget where you are?

Sure, would expect most/all here to expect Texas to win. But some of the wishcasting or belief that it is still 2018 on the defensive side of the ball, or that literally every metric, including tons that adjust for opponent strength are alllll incorrect and you guys have it figured out instead is hilarious. Texas has a really really good team this year, and very well may win, and possibly can win handily. But things like "OU can't stop the run" and "OU's WRs suck" are pretty objectively false. 

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Texasborn91

Texasborn91 1,102

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5 minutes ago, Constant said:

OU is a flawed 9-10 win team. There are more scenarios where I see Texas winning than OU. Probably 70/30 or 60/40 in my opinion. 
 

But some of the justifications for the confidence here can be pretty stupid. The statement was made that Oklahoma can’t stop the run. They have stopped the run. 

*so far

teams have needed to abandon the run to try to stay in games. On paper, yes you stop the run. Can you stop the run when Texas is up 10 middle of the 3rd? Doubt it. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15,514

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5 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Sure, would expect most/all here to expect Texas to win. But some of the wishcasting or belief that it is still 2018 on the defensive side of the ball, or that literally every metric, including tons that adjust for opponent strength are alllll incorrect and you guys have it figured out instead is hilarious. Texas has a really really good team this year, and very well may win, and possibly can win handily. But things like "OU can't stop the run" and "OU's WRs suck" are pretty objectively false. 

I don't think many people are saying "OU can't stop the run." 

They're saying OU has played an absolute dog shit schedule and you shouldn't judge their strengths and weaknesses before they play a quality opponent. Let's see if OU can stop the run after this weekend. 

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horn_of_the_morning

horn_of_the_morning 999

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4 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Sure, would expect most/all here to expect Texas to win. But some of the wishcasting or belief that it is still 2018 on the defensive side of the ball, or that literally every metric, including tons that adjust for opponent strength are alllll incorrect and you guys have it figured out instead is hilarious. Texas has a really really good team this year, and very well may win, and possibly can win handily. But things like "OU can't stop the run" and "OU's WRs suck" are pretty objectively false. 

Iowa state was held to 1.7 ypc against Ohio. They were 5.6 ypc against you guys. Get real.

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Frank Drebin

Frank Drebin 5,835

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1 minute ago, TXSooner518 said:

Sure, would expect most/all here to expect Texas to win. But some of the wishcasting or belief that it is still 2018 on the defensive side of the ball, or that literally every metric, including tons that adjust for opponent strength are alllll incorrect and you guys have it figured out instead is hilarious. Texas has a really really good team this year, and very well may win, and possibly can win handily. But things like "OU can't stop the run" and "OU's WRs suck" are pretty objectively false. 

OU fans were bragging about how tough Venables made the team last year when you started off beating up patsies and a terrible Nebraska team.  How OU was so much tougher on defense and better off that Riley left. Then you started playing some teams with an offense.  TCU put up 55, K State 41, Texas 49, Texas Tech 51, Baylor 38 and Kansas 42.  I don't think you can tell shit from advanced stats when you've played the absolute garbage OU has played.  We will see.  The thing OU has going for it this year is it is about the easiest schedule I have ever seen any Big 12 team have.  I am guessing Texas kicks your ass.  OU wins more games after.  And then gets into a bowl it has no business being in and gets its ass kicked.

I am not convinced Venables is even a good DC.  He sucked when he was made playcalling DC at OU and got run off for Mike Stoops.  Then he goes to Clemson and has a shit ton of 5 stars and a loaded d-line and gets to play against boring and untalented ACC teams.  His staff at OU is nothing special.

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Skipper

Skipper 6,411

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14 minutes ago, Constant said:

OU is a flawed 9-10 win team. There are more scenarios where I see Texas winning than OU. Probably 70/30 or 60/40 in my opinion. 
 

But some of the justifications for the confidence here can be pretty stupid. The statement was made that Oklahoma can’t stop the run. They have stopped the run. 

Don't disagree with any of this.  And Texas becomes easier to defend if Sanders can't go.  Particularly in the red zone.  

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15,514

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4 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

OU fans were bragging about how tough Venables made the team last year when you started off beating up patsies and a terrible Nebraska team.  How OU was so much tougher on defense and better off that Riley left. Then you started playing some teams with an offense. 

Yes they were saying the same stuff last year after beating UTEP, Kent-State, and a shitty Nebraska team. 

"This is the tougher Venables defense." Then they played better teams and got their asses handed to them. Luckily for OU, that's not really the case this year because they only play a couple of good teams. 

 

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Skipper

Skipper 6,411

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10 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I think OU will likely have the same mindset as Constant. 

"We can stop the run so we're going to protect the secondary." They're going to find out that the Texas OL and RBs are a lot different than fucking Cincinnati, SMU, and Iowa State. 

The most improved area on this Texas team is run blocking. I hope to god OU thinks they're all worldly at stopping the run. 

Let's also not pretend Texas is going to handle the LOS like they did against Baylor and Kansas.  I think Texas can wear OU down over 4 quarters on both fronts but this is going to be a good matchup/test for both units.

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Texasborn91

Texasborn91 1,102

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Just now, Skipper said:

Let's also not pretend Texas is going to handle the LOS like they did against Baylor and Kansas.  I think Texas can wear OU down over 4 quarters on both fronts but this is going to be a good matchup/test for both units.

We absolutely have the advantage at both LOS. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 15,514

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3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Let's also not pretend Texas is going to handle the LOS like they did against Baylor and Kansas.  I think Texas can wear OU down over 4 quarters on both fronts but this is going to be a good matchup/test for both units.

Probably not but Texas dominated the LOS against Alabama in the 2nd half who has a front 7 significantly better than OU. 

 

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Skipper

Skipper 6,411

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

We absolutely have the advantage at both LOS. 

Yeah, we do.  But not at the same level as the last 2 weeks.  This board constantly overreacts.  Game to game and even play to play (go read a fucking first half Kansas game thread for proof of that).  I hope we beat them by 20+ like everyone, and there is a scenario where that plays out, but there is a reason the spread is under a TD and most "models" have OU covering that.   "On Paper" we are not 2+TD's better than OU.   "On Paper" we absolutely were 2TD's better than both Baylor and Kansas.

Edited by Skipper
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z009

z009 65

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6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Don't disagree with any of this.  And Texas becomes easier to defend if Sanders can't go.  Particularly in the red zone.  

Much of the overconfidence seems to be based on one bad quarter against Iowa State where they were likely sleep-walking and looking ahead to us. It's hard to get 18-year-olds amped up to play Iowa State. We have had the same issues in recent years with Iowa State. OU did win by 30 and was up by 20 at halftime, so it's not like it was a game that was in doubt for long. I think we all know that they won't be sleep-walking against us. Sark has said on several occasions that we are everyone' biggest game, and it couldn't be more true. The team should expect everyone's best shot each week, and nothing less. 

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