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Texas opens as a 5 point favorite v Oklahoma

TexasMan

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14,155

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Yeah, we do.  But not at the same level as the last 2 weeks.  This board constantly overreacts.  Game to game and even play to play (go read a fucking first half Kansas game thread for proof of that).  I hope we beat them by 20+ like everyone, and there is a scenario where that plays out, but there is a reason the spread is under a TD and most "models" have OU covering that.   "On Paper" we are not 2+TD's better than OU.   "On Paper" we absolutely were 2TD's better than both Baylor and Kansas.

Most models/advanced metrics have OU covering because they're a paper tiger. 

They've been putting up inflated numbers against really bad teams. The same shit occurred last year when OU was ranked in the top 10 of several advanced metrics after the first 3  games. Veneables is really good at beating the shit out of bad teams early in the season. 

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TornACL

TornACL 7,675

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My biggest takeaway from the OU Cincy game is that Gabriel will make insanely bad decisions when pressured.

Not saying we should bring the house, but I am saying that when we get pressure, Gabriel is gonna throw at least a couple of idiotic passes that need to be picked off.

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6,769

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3 minutes ago, z009 said:

Much of the overconfidence seems to be based on one bad quarter against Iowa State where they were likely sleep-walking and looking ahead to us. It's hard to get 18-year-olds amped up to play Iowa State. We have had the same issues in recent years with Iowa State. OU did win by 30 and was up by 20 at halftime, so it's not like it was a game that was in doubt for long. I think we all know that they won't be sleep-walking against us. Sark has said on several occasions that we are everyone' biggest game, and it couldn't be more true. The team should expect everyone's best shot each week, and nothing less. 

No, it goes back to SMU and Cincinnati. 

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Constant

Constant 6,722

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18 minutes ago, Fumbles said:

ISU had 5.56 per carry against your defense.  And they are wretched.  If you want to pin your hopes for the RRS on the stats your defense put up against Tulsa and Arkansas State, don’t be shocked when people laugh at you.

I mean, alright. But a little context wouldn’t hurt either. Their longest run was a 39 yarder. From 9:10 left in the 2nd quarter til the end of the game they had 18 carries for 38 yards for 2.1/carry. 
 

They did some things schematically that they haven’t done all season on film. Once OU adjusted to it, it was shut down. 

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Fumbles

Fumbles 299

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Constant said:

I mean, alright. But a little context wouldn’t hurt either. Their longest run was a 39 yarder. From 9:10 left in the 2nd quarter til the end of the game they had 18 carries for 38 yards for 2.1/carry. 
 

They did some things schematically that they haven’t done all season on film. Once OU adjusted to it, it was shut down. 

See, the nice thing about Texas is, we don’t have to cherry-pick stats to make our stats look good.  We’ve just beaten the piss out of everyone and after Saturday, that will include you.

Edited by Fumbles
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z009

z009 65

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2 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Now go watch the SMU game. The only semi-decent opponent they've played. 

Once SMU cut it to three, they immediately went down the field and scored two touchdowns to put the game away. It was similar to what we did to Wyoming when they played with us into the fourth quarter. After sleep-walking the first three quarters, we scored a few touchdowns to put the game away. 

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Matagorda

Matagorda 118

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1 hour ago, gurt said:

one thing I hope we're preparing for is the triple option that KU ran on us.  Not something you see too often these days and we were not ready for it.  I could see OU going to that early with Gabriel to get their run game going

Yea, its coming.  We better have repped it some in practice.

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Skipper

Skipper 6,103

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Most models/advanced metrics have OU covering because they're a paper tiger. 

They've been putting up inflated numbers against really bad teams. The same shit occurred last year when OU was ranked in the top 10 of several advanced metrics after the first 3  games. Veneables is really good at beating the shit out of bad teams early in the season. 

Maybe.  Maybe not.  Lots of assumptions in your post based on limited data.     This OU team is better on paper than last years OU team and they can only play who they have played..  Don't forget the main reason we beat the shit out of them is that they had absolutely no QB and had to run wildcat.   This Texas team is better than last year as well.  I don't take much from last year either way.

The data points I like for us that are more proven than "they're a paper tiger" are (i) they have not run the ball well against average D's and (ii) DG has not proven (throughout a long career) that he can carve up a good D.   

Edited by Skipper
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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,432

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Most models/advanced metrics have OU covering because they're a paper tiger. 

They've been putting up inflated numbers against really bad teams. The same shit occurred last year when OU was ranked in the top 10 of several advanced metrics after the first 3  games. Veneables is really good at beating the shit out of bad teams early in the season. 

LOL this take is like when people say "this team can't cover the spread, they suck!"  Oh, cool, that wasn't already baked in, they didn't know that team sucked when they set the line. 

1 minute ago, Fumbles said:

See, the nice thing about Texas is, we don’t have to cherry-pick stats to make our stats look good.  We’ve just beaten the piss out of everyone and after Saturday, that will include you.

Weren't you tied with Wyoming on your home field in the 4th quarter?

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14,155

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3 minutes ago, z009 said:

Once SMU cut it to three, they immediately went down the field and scored two touchdowns to put the game away. It was similar to what we did to Wyoming when they played with us into the fourth quarter. After sleep-walking the first three quarters, we scored a few touchdowns to put the game away. 

SMU outgained OU 367 yards to 365 yards. Averaged nearly the same yards per play. This was a fairly even game minus the 2 SMU fumbles. 

You should probably go watch the game. 

 

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hook me

hook me 2,080

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4 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

LOL this take is like when people say "this team can't cover the spread, they suck!"  Oh, cool, that wasn't already baked in, they didn't know that team sucked when they set the line. 

Weren't you tied with Wyoming on your home field in the 4th quarter?

We didn't want to blow them out too early and everyone miss the cool drone display. Duh.

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Skipper

Skipper 6,103

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1 minute ago, TXSooner518 said:

 

Weren't you tied with Wyoming on your home field in the 4th quarter?

Yep, this drives home the point I was making about this fucking board overreacting to the last thing they saw (2nd half domination against Kansas).  I can only imagine the doom and gloom on this board during the 3rd quarter Wyoming game thread.  I think Texas will win the game.  If I had to make a bet I would probably lean Texas -5.  But the overconfidence is pretty astounding if you have watched the last 30+ of these.

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,432

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1 minute ago, Fumbles said:

How did that 4th quarter end?

Are you arguing that being tied 10-10 in the 4th quarter against a G5 team can ever be called "beating the piss" out of someone? You would call me out for saying OU "beat the piss" out of SMU, and SMU was never tied or in the lead after 0-0. 

Also that 4th quarter ended with Wyoming covering the spread by 10.5 points, another solid argument against that being a "piss beating."

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z009

z009 65

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1 minute ago, Rickylovesweed said:

SMU outgained OU 367 yards to 365 yards. Averaged nearly the same yards per play. This was a fairly even game minus the 2 SMU fumbles. 

You should probably go watch the game. 

 

Out-gaining an opponent isn't really that signifiant in today's game. USC was out-gained by Colorado. Is Colorado a better team than USC? The fact that OU was able to immediately put two long drives together after SMU cut the lead to 3 tells me that they were the better team. 

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Constant

Constant 6,722

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37 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

*so far

teams have needed to abandon the run to try to stay in games. On paper, yes you stop the run. Can you stop the run when Texas is up 10 middle of the 3rd? Doubt it. 

We shall see. It’s possible Texas is down 10 in the 3rd as well. 

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hook me

hook me 2,080

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UT by 20+ if Sanders is available at >90%. If he's limited or doesn't play then we may only beat them by 10ish. 

We have better, more proven talent at every position & it's not that close on both sides of the LOS, WR, CB, or TE (if Sanders is playing).

Can OU beat us? Sure, it's the RRS for fucks sake, but Sark has had UT more than ready for this game both years he's been here & Caleb Williams/LR aren't walking out the tunnel at half time this year.

45-23 UT continues pulling away from teams in the second half.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14,155

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2 minutes ago, z009 said:

Out-gaining an opponent isn't really that signifiant in today's game. USC was out-gained by Colorado. Is Colorado a better team than USC? The fact that OU was able to immediately put two long drives together after SMU cut the lead to 3 tells me that they were the better team. 

Now go look at yards per play in the USC and Colorado game and compare that to OU and SMU. 

I'm just not a believer at all in OU based on the SMU game. It was the only semi-decent opponent they've played and the yards and yards per play were very similar. This was an even game minus the turnovers and OU's special teams pinning SMU inside the 20 4 or 5 times. 

I'm not factoring any context of Texas into this. I'm just saying OU has played 1 decent opponent and it was a major struggle bus for them. 

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Fumbles

Fumbles 299

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6 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Are you arguing that being tied 10-10 in the 4th quarter against a G5 team can ever be called "beating the piss" out of someone? You would call me out for saying OU "beat the piss" out of SMU, and SMU was never tied or in the lead after 0-0. 

Also that 4th quarter ended with Wyoming covering the spread by 10.5 points, another solid argument against that being a "piss beating."

It was a 31-10 victory.  You can run whatever semantics arguments you want, whatever statistical arguments you want, OU hasn’t played anyone and Texas has looked dominant against the best schedule in football to this point.

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Pdawg88

Pdawg88 1,110

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It kills me to bet against my Sooners, but I did a parlay this morning with Texas -5 and Ole Piss -11. There is just no way OU will be able to keep up, our running game sucks balls. I will make more bets later this week on Texas, it’s free money at this point.

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,432

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Fumbles said:

It was a 31-10 victory.  You can run whatever semantics arguments you want, whatever statistical arguments you want, OU hasn’t played anyone and Texas has looked dominant against the best schedule in football to this point.

Please provide the source for "best schedule in football" because LOL no. One elite win for sure. Then Rice, Wyoming (with a backup QB), Kansas (with a backup QB), Baylor (with a backup QB).  

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Constant

Constant 6,722

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Fumbles said:

It was a 31-10 victory.  You can run whatever semantics arguments you want, whatever statistical arguments you want, OU hasn’t played anyone and Texas has looked dominant against the best schedule in football to this point.

Which metric are you referring to here? Just my eyes alone would say Colorado has played a tougher schedule than Texas. 

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5,618

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1 minute ago, Pdawg88 said:

It kills me to bet against my Sooners, but I did a parlay this morning with Texas -5 and Ole Piss -11. There is just no way OU will be able to keep up, our running game sucks balls. I will make more bets later this week on Texas, it’s free money at this point.

I see what you're doing, you sneaky land thief.  Nice try

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,432

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Just now, Constant said:

Which metric are you referring to here? Just my eyes alone would say Colorado has played a tougher schedule than Texas. 

Or Florida State. Or Ole Miss. Or LSU, South Carolina, Auburn, Tulsa, a couple dozen other teams. But this dude thinks 10-10 in the 4th and failing to cover by multiple scores is "beating the piss" out of someone so may be a lost cause. 

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Atticus

Atticus 3,922

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19 minutes ago, Matagorda said:

Yea, its coming.  We better have repped it some in practice.

They would be foolish to try the triple option. They’ll have some wrinkles to their offense, but they aren’t throwing that in just for the run of it. Especially with Gabriel’s injury history. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16,504

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Posted
So we’re favored across the board and I see the line at -6.5. And yet… wtf ESPN?
 
IMG_4408.thumb.png.748ace7e05f2944c94c79e19534e0db4.png
 

Most of the various predictive analytics - ESPN, Sagarin, SP+, KFord, FEI, etc. have the two teams within a couple points of one another. A couple favor Texas, a couple OU. ESPN one you’re showing has OU rated 1.6 points better than Texas.

Which is to say the analytics rate the game as a tossup. 54-46 reflects that. That’s not a meaningful departure from 50-50.

I happen to think Vegas is correct in having Texas a slight but decided favorite, but don’t read that as “OMG ESPN predicts an OU win!”
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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6,769

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1 minute ago, TXSooner518 said:

Or Florida State. Or Ole Miss. Or LSU, South Carolina, Auburn, Tulsa, a couple dozen other teams. But this dude thinks 10-10 in the 4th and failing to cover by multiple scores is "beating the piss" out of someone so may be a lost cause. 

Failing to cover by multiple scores? Multiple safeties, I suppose. 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14,155

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Or Florida State. Or Ole Miss. Or LSU, South Carolina, Auburn, Tulsa, a couple dozen other teams. But this dude thinks 10-10 in the 4th and failing to cover by multiple scores is "beating the piss" out of someone so may be a lost cause. 

The issue with the advanced metrics is they don't value Wyoming as much as they should based on their style of play. 

For instance, Texas Tech is still ranked above Wyoming in almost every advanced metric by a good bit even though Wyoming beat them. When Wyoming beats a ranked Fresno State team this weekend people will start to realize that the advanced metrics aren't an accurate reflection of them as a team. 

I'm not saying Wyoming is a top 20 team but they're much better than #80 in SP+. I would definitely take Wyoming over SMU on a neutral field. 

Edited by Rickylovesweed
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Fumbles

Fumbles 299

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4 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Or Florida State. Or Ole Miss. Or LSU, South Carolina, Auburn, Tulsa, a couple dozen other teams. But this dude thinks 10-10 in the 4th and failing to cover by multiple scores is "beating the piss" out of someone so may be a lost cause. 

You have to cherry pick the score at a certain time in one game to find an argument.  Weak.  See you Saturday.

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Matagorda

Matagorda 118

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6 minutes ago, Atticus said:

They would be foolish to try the triple option. They’ll have some wrinkles to their offense, but they aren’t throwing that in just for the run of it. Especially with Gabriel’s injury history. 

Yea, but one play on a 3rd and 5 or so is likely.

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TXSooner518

TXSooner518 2,432

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Just now, Rickylovesweed said:

The issue with the advanced metrics is they don't value Wyoming as much as they should based on their style of play. 

For instance, Texas Tech is still ranked above Wyoming in almost every advanced metric by a good bit even though Wyoming beat them. When Wyoming beats a ranked Fresno State team this weekend people will start to realize that the advanced metrics aren't an accurate reflection of them as a team. 

So you have figured out a "style of play" loophole in advanced metrics that Sagarin, Connelly, Vegas, etc., are all blind to and unable to correct? Please describe exactly how Wyoming's style of play creates this conundrum. Does it bake in that their starting QB missed the Texas game? Also, if Tech and Wyoming played again, Tech would be favored again. Tech ran fairly bad to lose that game. I agree Wyoming isn't garbage, but if you play in the Cotton Bowl the way you did the first three quarters of that game, Texas will get their asses handed to them. 

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