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Texas opens as a 5 point favorite v Oklahoma

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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BurgleBro

BurgleBro 899

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, TotallyLegit said:

If they run him a lot, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Catalon who does the deed

Last game Their entire offense and ability to move the chains was gabriel running off broken and designed plays, until the very end of 2nd Q when Iowa State key control.

 

Hope Catalon watched that film closely

9 hours ago, Orange&White said:

 

Why are people on this site discussing knocking out Dillon Gabriel? Is it because of the stellar Texas history of facing ou backup QBs?

 

Prob bc they've been running him a lot in key situations. 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11784

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Posted

I listened to a long preview with Sooner regard Gabe Ikard. 
 

He stated he was 3-1 against Texas at least 5 dozen times. 
 

After verbally blowing Venables for being on time to press conferences this season(dafuq?!), he gave his thoughts on Texas.

He’s not impressed with the Texas offense. Basically said we’re screwed if we can’t hit the deep or rip off a long run. He used some bullshit PFF metric to explain that we don’t run the ball well consistently. I’d say we ran the ball pretty damned consistently on that 7 minute drive to seal the Bama game. 
 

On defense, he alluded to Sorrell being a trash edge rusher. Said we don’t have any on the edge that can get after the QB. Most of skipped the good parts of the Bama game. He begrudgingly admitted to Sweat and Murphy being a problem inside. He was really impressed with Sweat’s agility, and Murphy’s push on passing downs. Likes our secondary. Never mentioned Ford. 
 

He very reluctantly acknowledged Texas is the more talented team, but OU could win if they force Ewers into mistakes and take away the big play. Also reluctantly admitted Texas isn’t soft. He said Sark’s pregame warm ups are the most intense he’s ever seen. 
 

He’s completely bought in :

- Gabriel being an elite, elite QB. You just don’t score 40 on Iowa State in the first half!

- He declared Venables has fixed the defense. Well, that was quick.

- Texas only won last year because Gabriel was hurt. 
 

In summary, Ikard sucks worse than James Hale. 

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cochamps

cochamps 1885

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I listened to a long preview with Sooner regard Gabe Ikard. 
 

He stated he was 3-1 against Texas at least 5 dozen times. 
 

After verbally blowing Venables for being on time to press conferences this season(dafuq?!), he gave his thoughts on Texas.

He’s not impressed with the Texas offense. Basically said we’re screwed if we can’t hit the deep or rip off a long run. He used some bullshit PFF metric to explain that we don’t run the ball well consistently. I’d say we ran the ball pretty damned consistently on that 7 minute drive to seal the Bama game. 
 

On defense, he alluded to Sorrell being a trash edge rusher. Said we don’t have any on the edge that can get after the QB. Most of skipped the good parts of the Bama game. He begrudgingly admitted to Sweat and Murphy being a problem inside. He was really impressed with Sweat’s agility, and Murphy’s push on passing downs. Likes our secondary. Never mentioned Ford. 
 

He very reluctantly acknowledged Texas is the more talented team, but OU could win if they force Ewers into mistakes and take away the big play. Also reluctantly admitted Texas isn’t soft. He said Sark’s pregame warm ups are the most intense he’s ever seen. 
 

He’s completely bought in :

- Gabriel being an elite, elite QB. You just don’t score 40 on Iowa State in the first half!

- He declared Venables has fixed the defense. Well, that was quick.

- Texas only won last year because Gabriel was hurt. 
 

In summary, Ikard sucks worse than James Hale. 

Guess maybe I should bet on the Horns.

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Hard Times

Hard Times 309

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I listened to a long preview with Sooner regard Gabe Ikard. 
 

He stated he was 3-1 against Texas at least 5 dozen times. 
 

After verbally blowing Venables for being on time to press conferences this season(dafuq?!), he gave his thoughts on Texas.

He’s not impressed with the Texas offense. Basically said we’re screwed if we can’t hit the deep or rip off a long run. He used some bullshit PFF metric to explain that we don’t run the ball well consistently. I’d say we ran the ball pretty damned consistently on that 7 minute drive to seal the Bama game. 
 

On defense, he alluded to Sorrell being a trash edge rusher. Said we don’t have any on the edge that can get after the QB. Most of skipped the good parts of the Bama game. He begrudgingly admitted to Sweat and Murphy being a problem inside. He was really impressed with Sweat’s agility, and Murphy’s push on passing downs. Likes our secondary. Never mentioned Ford. 
 

He very reluctantly acknowledged Texas is the more talented team, but OU could win if they force Ewers into mistakes and take away the big play. Also reluctantly admitted Texas isn’t soft. He said Sark’s pregame warm ups are the most intense he’s ever seen. 
 

He’s completely bought in :

- Gabriel being an elite, elite QB. You just don’t score 40 on Iowa State in the first half!

- He declared Venables has fixed the defense. Well, that was quick.

- Texas only won last year because Gabriel was hurt. 
 

In summary, Ikard sucks worse than James Hale. 

Yes, Gabriel woulda made a helluva linebacker in that game. Tackling Machine!!

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

Posted
Posted
Saw 10-20mph winds possible during Saturday's game.  Will be interesting to see how that affects passing...  Texas o-line needs to kick ass to help Horns have a great rushing day!!!

As the forecast stands now I don’t think wind will be much of a factor. 10mph is a normal breeze in Dallas and gusts aren’t even projected to hit 20mph during the day (it will be windier overnight).
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closetojumping

closetojumping 65246

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Down to -5 now at a lot of books

Sharp money is on Texas at this point. Below in plain text is what Action Network is tracking. 3 key signals are flashing for the game and they are all on Texas. Could change, but this is as of right now:

SIGNALS

OU

There are no signals yet for OU
Check back later

TEX

Sharp Action

An indication that professionals have wagered on a specific side, causing sportsbooks to move the line.

Signal Strength: We've tracked sharp money coming in on TEX.

PRO Systems

Profitable betting systems that are back-tested over a large sample size and curated by our experts.

Signal Strength: There's one PRO System on TEX -- Ranked Matchups (PRO) -- which has a 57% win rate and a 12% ROI.

Model Projections

When there’s a notable difference between our projected line and the odds listed by sportsbooks.

Signal Strength: Our NCAAF power ratings make the spread TEX -7.7

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Hookem2147

Hookem2147 21930

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Sharp money is on Texas at this point. Below in plain text is what Action Network is tracking. 3 key signals are flashing for the game and they are all on Texas. Could change, but this is as of right now:

SIGNALS

OU

There are no signals yet for OU
Check back later

TEX

Sharp Action

An indication that professionals have wagered on a specific side, causing sportsbooks to move the line.

Signal Strength: We've tracked sharp money coming in on TEX.

PRO Systems

Profitable betting systems that are back-tested over a large sample size and curated by our experts.

Signal Strength: There's one PRO System on TEX -- Ranked Matchups (PRO) -- which has a 57% win rate and a 12% ROI.

Model Projections

When there’s a notable difference between our projected line and the odds listed by sportsbooks.

Signal Strength: Our NCAAF power ratings make the spread TEX -7.7

Interesting. Don't doubt that data, just doesn't seem to completely match with the line suddenly moving in the opposite direction and dropping 1.5 points today.

Edited by Hookem2147
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Cairn Horn88

Cairn Horn88 8500

Posted
Posted

From a Bama poster on secrant:

re: Texas...How sure are you all about this game? Posted on 10/5/23 at 3:57 pm to HogPharmer
bkm1.png
I can say that Texas live and in person was extremely impressive. Physically, mentally, how well coached they were, how explosive they were. We didn't play a great game but we competed pretty hard and Texas just refused to let go of the football game. That's a damn good team.
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gmr548

gmr548 16681

Posted
Posted
From a Bama poster on secrant:
re: Texas...How sure are you all about this game? Posted on 10/5/23 at 3:57 pm to HogPharmer bkm1.png I can say that Texas live and in person was extremely impressive. Physically, mentally, how well coached they were, how explosive they were. We didn't play a great game but we competed pretty hard and Texas just refused to let go of the football game. That's a damn good team.

If SEC Rant be for us, who can be against us?
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TexasMan

TexasMan 11383

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  • Author
Posted

Yeah the line is back to 5.

Every site I've been to has had predicted scores of Oklahoma winning by between 2-7 points, and 70% of the money coming in on Texas. That's a lethal combination for us, but Vegas has been wrong before. 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11784

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

Yeah the line is back to 5.

Every site I've been to has had predicted scores of Oklahoma winning by between 2-7 points, and 70% of the money coming in on Texas. That's a lethal combination for us, but Vegas has been wrong before. 

A lot of cute offensive statistics are popping up like mushrooms. Run success rate. Redzone efficiency. A lot of PFF and FPI bullshit.

OU would have plenty of warts if they had played Georgia. 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
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ztejas

ztejas 44114

Posted
Posted (edited)

There is no reason the spread shouldn't be a touchdown. We are just straight up better than this OU team and they are totally untested coming into this one. They may have a brilliant gameplan and come out with their hair on fire but you can't scout this Texas front 7. Everyone has a gameplan until Sweat and Murphy hit them in the mouth for four quarters. What would the line be if OU was playing Bama in Tuscaloosa this week? It wouldn't be a pick 'em I can tell you that much.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter because the spread for this game is almost never accurate. Nothing but OU winning by 2 scores would shock me, but I will be certainly be surprised if they win. I'm guessing if the spread isn't accurate it's because we whip their ass again. We shall see. 

Edited by ztejas
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49909

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, TexasMan said:

Yeah the line is back to 5.  Every site I've been to has had predicted scores of Oklahoma winning by between 2-7 points, and 70% of the money coming in on Texas. That's a lethal combination for us, but Vegas has been wrong before. 

Saw 6 1/2 to 7 earlier in the week.  But now this morning 5 or 5 1/2

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closetojumping

closetojumping 65246

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Interesting. Don't doubt that data, just doesn't seem to completely match with the line suddenly moving in the opposite direction and dropping 1.5 points today.

It's back to -5.5 and the sharp money tilt is now leaning on the OU side. Curious to see how it wraps tomorrow morning.

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Hermanator

Hermanator 7570

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Posted

Heard Quan tell a story about his official visit to OU where he witnessed his host player tell his coach nope when asked to help another player who was nursing an injury carry some of his gear. Said it looked like OU was showing cracks in their team culture and that sealed him to Texas. 

 

OU still sucks

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49909

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4 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

For us non bettering types. WhTs all this line moving point spread shit mean I’m terms of Texas beating the fuck out of Ou

In the immortal words of Bill Bradley:

"We don't give a shit"  🤘

translation -- Texas is gonna kick ou's ass !!

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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3379

Posted
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Heard Quan tell a story about his official visit to OU where he witnessed his host player tell his coach nope when asked to help another player who was nursing an injury carry some of his gear. Said it looked like OU was showing cracks in their team culture and that sealed him to Texas. 
 
OU still sucks
I believe he told that story yesterday on the Ilivestream as well. Quan is such a great ambassador.
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Magabro

Magabro 211

Posted
Posted
Heard Quan tell a story about his official visit to OU where he witnessed his host player tell his coach nope when asked to help another player who was nursing an injury carry some of his gear. Said it looked like OU was showing cracks in their team culture and that sealed him to Texas. 
 
OU still sucks

Yup and that POS that didn’t help was everyone’s favorite. Rhett Bomar
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