2024 NFL DRAFT

Fud · February 5

1) Caleb Williams
2) Drake Maye
3) Jayden Daniels
4) Marvin Harrison Jr
5) Maik Nabers
6) Rome Odunze
7) Joe Alt
'8) Terrion Arnold
9) Olumuyiwa Fashanu
10) Taliese Fuaga
11) Dallas Turner
12) Bo Nix
13) JJ McCarthy
14) Brock Bowers
15) Jared Verse
16) Byron Murphy II
17) Ennis Rakestraw Jr
18) Brian Thomas Jr
19) Tyler Guyton
20) Amarius Mims
21) Jer'Zhan Newton
22) Quinyon Mitchell
23) Kool-Aid McKinstry
24) Keon Coleman
25) Cooper DeJean
26) Troy Fautanu
27) JC Latham
28) Jackson Powers-Johnson
29) Laiatu Latu
30) Darius Robinson
31) Jordan Morgan
32) Xavier Worthy
33) Ladd McConkey
34) Patrick Paul
35) Nate Wiggins
36) Chris Braswell
37) Edgerrin Cooper
38) Adonai Mitchell
39) Graham Barton
40) Chop Robinson
41) Kamari Lassiter
42) Michael Penix Jr
43) Devontez Walker
44) Troy Franklin
45) Xavier Legette
46) Malachi Corley
47) Kris Jenkins
48) Roman Wilson
49) Ja'Tavion Sanders
50) Tyler Nubin
51) Zach Frazier
52) Bralen Trice
53) Junior Colson
54) T'Vondre Sweat
55) Cooper Beebe
56) Kingsley Suamataia
57) Kamren Kinchens
58) Jonathan Brooks
59) Leonard Taylor III
60) Ja'Lynn Polk
61) TJ Tampa
62) Javon Bullard
63) Adisa Isaac
64) Michael Hall Jr

Fud · February 5

Fud · February 5

https://www.nfl.com/news/eric-edholm-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-chargers-grab-te-brock-bowers-at-no-5-qb-j-j-mccarthy-to-rams

tx 3 putt · February 6

LTtxfan · February 6

8 hours ago, Fud said:

Sure hope Byron goes to better organization

This would be great for JT

I just don't get the love for JJ... 1st Rd Bust

cmontexas · February 6

McCarthy was highly rated as a recruit, beat out the established starter as a true freshman, beat Ohio State 3 times and won the National Championship, going 15-0 in the process. I dont see anything physically that Brock Purdy can do that JJ McCarthy couldn't do. He's 3 years younger than Nix or Penix.

He is definitely worth a draft pick for a team needing a QB

tx 3 putt · February 6

the nfl is a qb league, you have to keep trying until you land the right one hits

Fud · February 6

6 hours ago, cmontexas said:

McCarthy was highly rated as a recruit, beat out the established starter as a true freshman, beat Ohio State 3 times and won the National Championship, going 15-0 in the process. I dont see anything physically that Brock Purdy can do that JJ McCarthy couldn't do. He's 3 years younger than Nix or Penix.

He is definitely worth a draft pick for a team needing a QB

He also only had to make a couple of passes a game for his team to win. He’s a more toolsy Mark Sanchez at this point

BurntOrange&White · February 6

7 hours ago, cmontexas said:

McCarthy was highly rated as a recruit, beat out the established starter as a true freshman, beat Ohio State 3 times and won the National Championship, going 15-0 in the process. I dont see anything physically that Brock Purdy can do that JJ McCarthy couldn't do. He's 3 years younger than Nix or Penix.

He is definitely worth a draft pick for a team needing a QB

Brock Purdy in college > JJ McCarthy in college

JJ just played on a team that for it's level of play.

Fud · February 6

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Brock Purdy in college > JJ McCarthy in college

JJ just played on a team that for it's level of play.

I don't think this is clear cut, and their situations were so different that it's difficult to compare. JJ did his job, which was to not throw interceptions, to use his legs on a couple of key third downs a game, and to make ~2 NFL throws per game. His QBR was much higher than Purdy's, but again, they had different jobs.

BurntOrange&White · February 6

4 minutes ago, Fud said:

I don't think this is clear cut, and their situations were so different that it's difficult to compare. JJ did his job, which was to not throw interceptions, to use his legs on a couple of key third downs a game, and to make ~2 NFL throws per game. His QBR was much higher than Purdy's, but again, they had different jobs.

Seems pretty clear cut to me that Brock was a superior QB on a much lesser talented team than Michigan.

Fud · February 6

5 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Seems pretty clear cut to me that Brock was a superior QB on a much lesser talented team than Michigan.

Based on what? Cumulative counting stats that included a lot more interceptions? McCarthy's metrics were better, and he had these:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401551786/alabama-michigan

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes

BurntOrange&White · February 6

1 minute ago, Fud said:

Based on what? Cumulative counting stats that included a lot more interceptions? McCarthy's metrics were better, and he had these:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401551786/alabama-michigan

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes

McCarthy had a 3 game stretch where he didn't get a TD at all. And his one TD against Ohio St should have been ruled an interception. He was carried by his team this year. He's not a great QB. Also you have his pre vs post Stallions stats which paint a pretty interesting picture. Brock made Iowa State far better team than they are without him. JJ McCarthy had no bearing on his team this year.

Edited February 6 by BurntOrange&White

Fud · February 6

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

McCarthy had a 3 game stretch where he didn't get a TD at all. He was carried by his team this year. He's not a great QB.

He was #3 in the nation in QBR, and had big NFL level throws in big games that were critical in those victories

BurntOrange&White · February 6

2 minutes ago, Fud said:

He was #3 in the nation in QBR, and had big NFL level throws in big games that were critical in those victories

QBR, a made up stat by ESPN to justify Tebow.

Great QB's don't go 3 games without a single TD. He didn't do anything to win Michigan games this year.

Edited February 6 by BurntOrange&White

Fud · February 6

6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

QBR, a made up stat by ESPN to justify Tebow.

Are you under the impression that Tebow wasn't a good QB in college?

BurntOrange&White · February 6

Just now, Fud said:

Are you under the impression that Tebow wasn't a good QB in college?

Tebow was a great college QB but you're using QBR as a end all be all of stats for JJ. JJ is an above average game manager for Michigan.

Fud · February 6

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Tebow was a great college QB but you're using QBR as a end all be all of stats for JJ. JJ is an above average game manager for Michigan.

It's more useful than counting stats

BurntOrange&White · February 6

Just now, Fud said:

It's more useful than counting stats

Yeah so useful it gives results like this consistently.

Fud · February 6

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Yeah so useful it gives results like this consistently.

Exactly. It's an EPA based metric that takes game context into account.

Juicy · February 6

26 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Seems pretty clear cut to me that Brock was a superior QB on a much lesser talented team than Michigan.

JJ has a better Y/A, Rating, and rushing average. Your stats say the opposite.

Purdy has the volume stats. JJ has all the stats that are independent of volume.

Edited February 6 by Juicy

BurntOrange&White · February 6

Just now, Fud said:

Exactly. It's an EPA based metric that takes game context into account.

Minnesota won the game....it's a retarded metric all around.

Fud · February 6

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Minnesota won the game....it's a retarded metric all around.

So we should be looking at W/L to rank QBs?

BurntOrange&White · February 6

Just now, Fud said:

So we should be looking at W/L to rank QBs?

We shouldn't be using QBR a stat that was made up by ESPN to justify QBs. Especially considering that it's so flawed.

BurntOrange&White · February 6

Fud · February 6

It's an EPA based metric. When numbers don't match what you'd expect from looking at a box score, it likely means someone did better or worse on 3rd downs than you'd expect from the box score. How you perform on third downs matters in football.

Juicy · February 6

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

We shouldn't be using QBR a stat that was made up by ESPN to justify QBs. Especially considering that it's so flawed.

Yards per attempt seems to be the best stat currently for QBs, Unless you want just straight video game numbers of TDs for QBs that throw 40+ passes a game.

JJ was a full yard per attempt higher than Purdy for his career and almost 2 yards per attempt higher than Purdy in each of their last two systems.

Air Raid QBs are going to have higher stats than pro style QBs. If you throw 20 passes for 200 yards IMO that is better than throwing 40 passes for 20 yards.

In the 3 game stretch that JJ didn't throw a TD. How many games of those did Michigan lose? Why throw the ball if you don't have to. 4 things can happen when you throw, a completion, an incompletion, a sack and an interception. If you can run the ball, you don't need to throw.

BurntOrange&White · February 6

Just now, Juicy said:

Yards per attempt seems to be the best stat currently for QBs, Unless you want just straight video game numbers of TDs for QBs that throw 40+ passes a game.

JJ was a full yard per attempt higher than Purdy for his career and almost 2 yards per attempt higher than Purdy in each of their last two systems.

Air Raid QBs are going to have higher stats than pro style QBs. If you throw 20 passes for 200 yards IMO that is better than throwing 40 passes for 20 yards.

In the 3 game stretch that JJ didn't throw a TD. How many games of those did Michigan lose? Why throw the ball if you don't have to. 4 things can happen when you throw, a completion, an incompletion, a sack and an interception. If you can run the ball, you don't need to throw.

I want QB's who don't go 3 games without scoring a single TD.

Juicy · February 6

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I want QB's who don't go 3 games without scoring a single TD.

Why? Did Michigan lose any of those games? Isn't winning the ultimate goal in football?

QB 1 9/21, 123 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

QB 226/49 273 yards, 1TD, 1 INT.

One of those QBs won the Super Bowl.
8 times the team that won the super bowl, won without their QB throwing a TD. If you don't need to, you don't

You don't think Pete Carrol wishes he would have rushed beast mode instead of throwing a pick to Malcom Butler in the super bowl?

BurntOrange&White · February 6

Just now, Juicy said:

Why? Did Michigan lose any of those games? Isn't winning the ultimate goal in football?

QB 1 9/21, 123 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

QB 226/49 273 yards, 1TD, 1 INT.

One of those QBs won the Super Bowl.
8 times the team that won the super bowl, won without their QB throwing a TD. If you don't need to, you don't

You don't think Pete Carrol wishes he would have rushed beast mode instead of throwing a pick to Malcom Butler in the super bowl?

That's the point....Michigan didn't lose and didn't need him to win. Don't tell me he's such a great QB when that's not reality.

Edited February 6 by BurntOrange&White

Fud · February 6

5 minutes ago, Juicy said:

Yards per attempt seems to be the best stat currently for QBs, Unless you want just straight video game numbers of TDs for QBs that throw 40+ passes a game.

JJ was a full yard per attempt higher than Purdy for his career and almost 2 yards per attempt higher than Purdy in each of their last two systems.

Air Raid QBs are going to have higher stats than pro style QBs. If you throw 20 passes for 200 yards IMO that is better than throwing 40 passes for 20 yards.

In the 3 game stretch that JJ didn't throw a TD. How many games of those did Michigan lose? Why throw the ball if you don't have to. 4 things can happen when you throw, a completion, an incompletion, a sack and an interception. If you can run the ball, you don't need to throw.

There isn't a perfect metric or stat for QB play. Most QB stats and metrics are influenced by the offense and surroundings as a whole, and grades that seek to isolate the QB like PFF rely on someone trying to understand the QB's full job, including pre-snap checks and understanding the progressions he's coached to do, and no one is probably truly qualified to do that outside of the football team

EPA based metrics (QBR), or ones similar (DVOA) are probably your best bet, while also having PFF handy as a cross check

I think Purdy and McCarthy's situations were so different that it's difficult to compare, although I'm fairly certain that traditional box score scouting isn't the best way

BurntOrange&White · February 6

Just now, Fud said:

There isn't a perfect metric or stat for QB play. Most QB stats and metrics are influenced by the offense and surroundings as a whole, and grades that seek to isolate the QB like PFF rely on someone trying to understand the QB's full job, including pre-snap checks and understanding the progressions he's coached to do, and no one is probably truly qualified to do that outside of the football team

EPA based metrics (QBR), or ones similar (DVOA) are probably your best bet, while also having PFF handy as a cross check

I think Purdy and McCarthy's situations were so different that it's difficult to compare, although I'm fairly certain that traditional box score scouting isn't the best way

Iowa State had it's most success because of Purdy's play. Michigan had their success regardless of McCarthy's play.

Juicy · February 6

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

That's the point....Michigan didn't lose and didn't need him to win. Don't tell me he's such a great QB when that's not reality.

They aren't tied together though.

He can be a good QB, and Michigan can also win without him. Both of those can be true. They aren't mutually exclusive.

Juicy · February 6

Of the 8 Super Bowls won by teams with QBs who didn't throw a TD.

Namath, Aikman, Elway, Manning, Brady.

Those are all hall of fame QBs. One might even say they were great. Their teams didn't need them to win a super bowl. That doesn't mean they are not great. That is your argument, Michigan won without needing him, so he must suck. Namath, Aikman, Elway, Manning, Brady all had teams that won without needing them, so they must suck.

Their teams didn't lose, and didn't need them to win. Don't tell me 5 hall of fame QBs aren't great when that's not reality.

Edited February 6 by Juicy

Fud · February 6

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Iowa State had it's most success because of Purdy's play. Michigan had their success regardless of McCarthy's play.

Iowa State's success was in large part due to a DC who revolutionized anti-spread defenses in college, and stumped most of the big twelve offensive brain trusts for a few years

Juicy · February 6

5 minutes ago, Fud said:

Iowa State's success was in large part due to a DC who revolutionized anti-spread defenses in college, and stumped most of the big twelve offensive brain trusts for a few years

Iowa State also opened up 2021 with Brock Purdy not throwing a TD in the first two games. One of which they lost. He must suck. Thank god for that UNLV slump buster or he may have went 3 games without a TD. The horror.

Edited February 6 by Juicy

closetojumping · February 6

9 hours ago, cmontexas said:

McCarthy was highly rated as a recruit, beat out the established starter as a true freshman, beat Ohio State 3 times and won the National Championship, going 15-0 in the process. I dont see anything physically that Brock Purdy can do that JJ McCarthy couldn't do. He's 3 years younger than Nix or Penix.

He is definitely worth a draft pick for a team needing a QB

Giving a QB credit for a team's W/L record is pretty specious. It's not dissimilar to W/L records in baseball for pitchers. Bob Welch won 27 games in 1990 and won the Cy Young. Was Bob Welch a great pitcher or was he playing on an amazing American League team?

25 minutes ago, Fud said:

There isn't a perfect metric or stat for QB play. Most QB stats and metrics are influenced by the offense and surroundings as a whole, and grades that seek to isolate the QB like PFF rely on someone trying to understand the QB's full job, including pre-snap checks and understanding the progressions he's coached to do, and no one is probably truly qualified to do that outside of the football team

EPA based metrics (QBR), or ones similar (DVOA) are probably your best bet, while also having PFF handy as a cross check

I think Purdy and McCarthy's situations were so different that it's difficult to compare, although I'm fairly certain that traditional box score scouting isn't the best way

You get trapped in the numbers sometimes. It's the same shit other guys do on here, even when a dearth of stats is a glaring issue. No one needs QBR to know who the fuck JJ McCarthy is as a QB. That dude is somewhere between Jay Barker and Tee Martin on the spectrum of national title winning QBs capable of playing in the NFL.

His draft ranking is idiotic and he's being halo-effected into that range by his coach's aura and the team/talent that carried both of them. If that sounds crazy, then you and anyone else not named Juicy the Blind Michigan Homer have forgotten that humans input the data and the way the data is manipulated, and humans, no matter how autistic or sociopathic, are emotional animals that use logic as paint to cover up the emotion driving their decisions and behaviors.

Fud · February 6

Just now, closetojumping said:

You get trapped in the numbers sometimes. It's the same shit other guys do on here, even when a dearth of stats is a glaring issue. No one needs QBR to know who the fuck JJ McCarthy is as a QB. That dude is somewhere between Jay Barker and Tee Martin on the spectrum of national title winning QBs capable of playing in the NFL.

His draft ranking is idiotic and he's being halo-effected into that range by his coach's aura and the team/talent that carried both of them. If that sounds crazy, then you and anyone else not named Juicy the Blind Michigan Homer have forgotten that humans input the data and the way the data is manipulated, and humans, no matter how autistic or sociopathic, are emotional animals that use logic as paint to cover up the emotion driving their decisions and behaviors.

I wouldn't draft McCarthy in the first, where he'll likely go. He's Mark Sanchez but fast and with an arm.

My point was that it's not clear cut who was the better college QB between the two. I wouldn't state that one was better than the other as fact. Purdy put up counting stats as a four year starter. McCarthy didn't as a two year starter who only played a handful of games where he actually was tested and had to throw the ball a lot, but he did come through a few times in big moments in big games with NFL level throws and with his legs. Overall the metrics have McCarthy as the better college player, but he got to play on easy mode most of the time

Hank Chinaski · February 6

For Christ’s sake, NFL teams don’t give a shit about their college stats. Sure they care about on-field performance in general, but they’re primarily looking for ability, physical attributes, etc.

And all metrics are “made up.” They’re all imperfect. Football is a complex sport with lots of players on the field and lots of variables; you can’t account for all of that statistically. That doesn’t mean that imperfect metrics tell you nothing, it just means they don’t tell you everything - they’re not either perfect or useless. (And if TD passes thrown in college had any correlation to NFL success, then all the Leach QBs like Symons and Cumbie and Harrell would have been stars.)

Fud · February 6

1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

NFL teams don’t give a shit about their college stats.

Nobody is arguing against this

Hank Chinaski · February 6

4 minutes ago, Fud said:

Nobody is arguing against this

I guess not explicitly, but there’s an entire page about different QB stats and how JJ McCarthy rates in a presumed effort to figure out how high he should be drafted.

Fud · February 6

1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I guess not explicitly, but there’s an entire page about different QB stats and how JJ McCarthy rates in a presumed effort to figure out how high he should be drafted.

The argument is about who was the better college QB

Fondren & Main · February 6

You can argue JJ was better in college, but not by much especially when you consider the level of talent both guys were playing with.

Vertigo · February 6

Kirk Cousins gentlemen. We are comparing him to Kirk Cousins. I think that is pretty much all we need to see here.

Hank Chinaski · February 6

11 minutes ago, Fud said:

The argument is about who was the better college QB

Ok. Perhaps I made assumptions based on the fact that this is the NFL draft thread.

Fud · February 6

1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Ok. Perhaps I made assumptions based on the fact that this is the NFL draft thread.

I saw a wrong in a post and had to correct it, sorry for the detour

ChickenSandwich · February 6

1 hour ago, Juicy said:

AIR Yards per attempt seems to be the best stat currently for QBs, Unless you want just straight video game numbers of TDs for QBs that throw 40+ passes a game.

JJ was a full yard per attempt higher than Purdy for his career and almost 2 yards per attempt higher than Purdy in each of their last two systems.

Air Raid QBs are going to have higher stats than pro style QBs. If you throw 20 passes for 200 yards IMO that is better than throwing 40 passes for 20 yards.

In the 3 game stretch that JJ didn't throw a TD. How many games of those did Michigan lose? Why throw the ball if you don't have to. 4 things can happen when you throw, a completion, an incompletion, a sack and an interception. If you can run the ball, you don't need to throw.

air yards per attempt would be a better stat

2023

Drake Maye 8.7

JJ Mc 9.8

C Williams 10.3

J Daniels 13.6

2021 Purdy 7.9

JJ can make a good system QB, the problem is the NFL teams not requiring high level QB play are few and far between.

If he goes to a team like the Panthers, he is a bigger bust than Young

Edited February 6 by ChickenSandwich

closetojumping · February 6

1 hour ago, Fud said:

I saw a wrong in a post and had to correct it, sorry for the detour

You let a known idiot drag you into his sty for a mud wrestling match.

Helobious · February 6

I watched every Michigan game last year. If you think Michigan goes undefeated without McCarthy you’re stupid as fuck.

BurntOrange&White · February 6

9 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I watched every Michigan game last year. If you think Michigan goes undefeated without McCarthy you’re stupid as fuck.

And there we have it....my point is proven.

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