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2024 NFL DRAFT

LTtxfan

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Fud

Fud 9552

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1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I saw that article. This is kinda of a weird draft in that it's deep, but outside of Harrison Jr., Bowers, and maybe Caleb Williams, none of the players jump off the page at you.  Don't get me wrong, many of them may be stars and all pros, but this draft seems to lack guys that just scream "IT"

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Burt Macklin

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5 hours ago, The Dog said:

I wouldn't lump Nix in with those guys based on their ratings. Their "tiers" seem to be:

Caleb Williams

Daniels/Maye/Penix

McCarthy/Nix

Everyone else.

Unless these are your personal rankings, swap Pinex and McCarthy. McCarthy is largely expected to go top 10. Penix is end of 1st/early 2nd. 

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

And yet people are going fucking nuts about Malik Nabors being a top 10 pick. The two LSU WRs in this draft class might be as overrated as anyone. They averaged weak separation, played in a down SEC, and they had a wildman at QB dropping dimes and running around until he could throw them open. Nabors being ranked on par with Odunze and Harrison Jr is as laughable as someone not wanting to take a fucking Superman at TE because other, unrelated guys in the past didn't pan out in the same draft area.

And really, the "low historical hit rate in the top ten for the position" is such a weird premise in the first place. Hockenson and Pitts have had shit heaped onto them from different places but Hockenson is putting together an excellent career even if he isn't trending towards the HoF. Pitts got Johnsoned as bad as anyone on the Atlanta roster. His first season, before the idiot decided to fuck with him as some sort of decoy half the time, was terrific outside of the lack of TDs. Anything further back than 2018 is not a data point. Things change. 

Even if you zoom out to the whole first round, the hit rate for TE in the first round isn’t good relative to other positions. TE is also the position most closely correlated with an elite RAS score, like top 10 percentile and up. Bowers is small for the position, so he would’ve had to test off the charts to get near that number, and there’s probably a reason why he never tested for teams, even at his pro day. 
 

So I can see why teams in the top 10 have some pause. Having said all that, I would still take him top 10 and it may happen. I think he’ll go somewhere between 7 and 13. 

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The Dog

The Dog 44060

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4 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Unless these are your personal rankings, swap Pinex and McCarthy. McCarthy is largely expected to go top 10. Penix is end of 1st/early 2nd. 

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

they are not they are the rankings (not where they will go) from the link. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49240

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9 minutes ago, Fud said:

It depends on the team

Thanks... found this

"John Lynch says the 49ers have 22 first round grades in the 2024 NFL Draft class"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/john-lynch-says-the-49ers-have-22-first-round-grades-in-the-2024-nfl-draft-class/ar-AA1nt4bC#:~:text=Of those 83 draftable players%2C 35 were “starter-level”,said 22 of those players have first-round grades.

 

Paywall ESPN article had 18 players with 1st Rd grades.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39163371/2024-nfl-draft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps?cid=ESPN-ESPN-Article-Small_In-Line_Box-Evergreen-General_ESPN+_Promotion-11-22-Experiment_General_In-Line_TrackingLink-US-EN

 

And found 20 players in this article with 1st Rd Grades

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/2024-nfl-draft-caleb-williams-drake-maye-jayden-daniels/

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Fud

Fud 9552

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Here's what the GM's have said publicly or has been sourced for the # of first rounders they have.. typically, it's probably safe to go with the lower range since the higher ones are red flags that they might pass on

San Francisco- 22

Houston- 16

Buffalo- fewer than 28

Kansas City- 16 to 18

Indianapolis- 19 to 21

Seattle- 15 to 20 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19032

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15 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Thanks... found this

"John Lynch says the 49ers have 22 first round grades in the 2024 NFL Draft class"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/john-lynch-says-the-49ers-have-22-first-round-grades-in-the-2024-nfl-draft-class/ar-AA1nt4bC#:~:text=Of those 83 draftable players%2C 35 were “starter-level”,said 22 of those players have first-round grades.

 

Paywall ESPN article had 18 players with 1st Rd grades.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39163371/2024-nfl-draft-board-prospects-first-round-grades-comps?cid=ESPN-ESPN-Article-Small_In-Line_Box-Evergreen-General_ESPN+_Promotion-11-22-Experiment_General_In-Line_TrackingLink-US-EN

 

And found 20 players in this article with 1st Rd Grades

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/2024-nfl-draft-caleb-williams-drake-maye-jayden-daniels/

Teams will only have about 20 guys graded as first rounders each year, so this is pretty standard.  

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49240

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Thanks Fud, Burt Macklin and @billfromlaketravis.

Was just trying to get a gauge on where there might be a real drop-off in talent in the 1st Rd.  Saw that 49ers think depth of this draft is really weak in later rounds.

Seems like there is still quite a bit of talent through 5 rounds though maybe???

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Fud

Fud 9552

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On 4/18/2024 at 10:48 AM, Fud said:

Looking at the circa o/u, the only players commonly in first round mocks who don't have a line are Caleb, Daniels, Maye, Guyton, and Morgan.. which makes you think Guyton and Morgan are candidates to not go in the first

 

 

Making a mock (but leaving out the teams) based on the O/U gives you

 

1) Caleb Williams

2) Drake Maye / Jayden Daniels

3) Drake Maye / Jayden Daniels

4) Marvin Harrison Jr (4.5)

5) JJ McCarthy / Malik Nabers (5.5)

6) JJ McCarthy / Malik Nabers (5.5)

7) Joe Alt (7.5)

'8) Rome Odunze (8.5)

9) Dallas Turner (9.5)

10) Brock Bowers (11.5)

11) Taliese Fuaga (12.5)

12) Quinyon Mitchell (13.5)

13) Olu Fashanu / JC Latham / Jarred Verse (14.5)

14) Olu Fashanu / JC Latham / Jarred Verse (14.5)

15) Olu Fashanu / JC Latham / Jarred Verse (14.5)

16) Terrion Arnold (15.5)

17) Troy Fautanu / Byron Murphy II (16.5)

18) Troy Fautanu / Byron Murphy II (16.5)

19) Brian Thomas Jr / Adonai Mitchell / Laiatu Latu (17.5)

20)  Brian Thomas Jr / Adonai Mitchell / Laiatu Latu (17.5)

21)  Brian Thomas Jr / Adonai Mitchell / Laiatu Latu (17.5)

22) Jer'Zhan Newton (18.5)

23) Cooper DeJean (20.5)

24) Graham Barton (23.5)

25) Amarius Mims (24.5)

26) Chop Robinson (25.5)

27) Nate Wiggins (26.5)

28) Xavier Worthy / Kool-Aid McKinstry (28.5)

29) Xavier Worthy / Kool-Aid McKinstry (28.5)

30) Darius Robinson (29.5)

31) Jackson Powers-Johnson (30.5)

32) Michael Penix Jr / Bo Nix / Ladd McConkey / Tyler Nubin (32.5)

33) Michael Penix Jr / Bo Nix / Ladd McConkey / Tyler Nubin (32.5)

34) Michael Penix Jr / Bo Nix / Ladd McConkey / Tyler Nubin (32.5)

35) Michael Penix Jr / Bo Nix / Ladd McConkey / Tyler Nubin (32.5)

With updated lines..

 

1) Caleb Williams

2) Drake Maye / Jayden Daniels

3) Drake Maye / Jayden Daniels

4) Marvin Harrison Jr (4.5)

5) JJ McCarthy (5.5)

6) Malik Nabers (6.5)

7) Joe Alt (7.5)

'8) Rome Odunze (8.5)

9) Dallas Turner (9.5)

10) Brock Bowers (11.5)

11) Taliese Fuaga (12.5)

12) Troy Fautanu / Byron Murphy / JC Latham / Olu Fashanu (14.5)

13) Troy Fautanu / Byron Murphy / JC Latham / Olu Fashanu (14.5)

14) Troy Fautanu / Byron Murphy / JC Latham / Olu Fashanu (14.5)

15) Troy Fautanu / Byron Murphy / JC Latham / Olu Fashanu (14.5)

16) Quinyon Mitchell / Terrion Arnold (15.5)

17) Quinyon Mitchell / Terrion Arnold (15.5)

18) Jared Verse / Laiaitu Latu (16.5)

19) Jared Verse / Laiaitu Latu (16.5)

20) Brian Thomas Jr (19.5)

21) Graham Barton (21.5)

22) Amarius Mims / Cooper DeJean (22.5)

23) Amarius Mims / Cooper DeJean (22.5)

24) Chop Robinson (25.5)

25) Darius Robinson (27.5)

26) Adonai Mitchell / Kool-Aid McKinstry / Nate Wiggins (28.5)

27) Adonai Mitchell / Kool-Aid McKinstry / Nate Wiggins (28.5)

28) Adonai Mitchell / Kool-Aid McKinstry / Nate Wiggins (28.5)

29) Xavier Worthy / Jackson-Powers Johnson / Jer'Zhan Newton (31.5)

30) Xavier Worthy / Jackson-Powers Johnson / Jer'Zhan Newton (31.5)

31) Xavier Worthy / Jackson-Powers Johnson / Jer'Zhan Newton (31.5)

32) Michael Penix Jr (32.5)

33) Bo Nix / Ladd McConkey (34.5)

34) Bo Nix / Ladd McConkey (34.5)

Xavier Legette (36.5)

Keon Coleman / Braden Fiske (40.5)

Ennis Rakestraw (41.5)

 

Once again, no line for Guyton or Morgan, which would seemingly slot right in between Nix/McConkey's 34.5 and Legette's 36.6

 

As a Texans fan, Rakestraw sitting at 41.5 is notable

 

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The Dog

The Dog 44060

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https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/40007023/2024-nfl-draft-news-intel-top-picks-prospects-sleepers-buzz

Rumors of Worthy being WR4 off the board. Teams love speed:

251.png&h=110&w=11099.png&h=110&w=110

Who will be WR4?

Fowler: When I ask teams to predict which player will be the fourth receiver taken, one name that comes up fairly often is Texas' Xavier Worthy. Elite speed goes high. LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. is in that conversation, too. He's bracing to go somewhere in the teens or early-to-mid 20s. Thomas was part of the combine medical recheck due to a shoulder issue from college, but teams I've spoken to say that's not a major red flag -- just something they would have to manage in Year 1. He's extremely talented.

Full 2024 NFL draft rankings

nfl_jordan-reid-mock-draft_16x9_608x342.jpg

• DraftCast | Top five at each position
• Scouts Inc. ranks the top 381 prospects
• Kiper's top 150 | Miller's top 474
• Reid's top 400 | Yates' top 200
• The Leggy 100 | Reid's QB Hot Board

Texas' Adonai Mitchell, Georgia's Ladd McConkey, Florida State's Keon Coleman and South Carolina's Xavier Legette are among possibilities later in the round, too. Buffalo (No. 28) and Kansas City (No. 32) are late-round teams to watch at the position. And if a few key receivers slip into the second round, there will be action early on Day 2, especially with Carolina and New England sitting at Nos. 33 and 35, respectively.

The Bills will basically scour the Earth for receiver help this draft. Word is that they love Odunze and loosely know what it would take to acquire him. Do I expect Buffalo to trade up for him? No, that's a steep climb into the top 10. But that's a window into the legwork that Buffalo is doing on the WR position.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62741

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I think a "Draft 20XX: Booms, Mehs, & Busts" would be a good thread every year where people log their picks. Problem is that I might be the only one thinks that, I guess.

Anyway, in lieu of that, here are my thoughts on booms and busts, based on watching many of these guys for years and not giving a shit what NFL scouts think:

Busts:

- Malik Nabers - I've been mocking the views on this guy for years. That probably makes me an idiot since he's been so productive, especially this past year. I think that's a byproduct of his QB more than this guy being a uniquely talented player. I heard a draft guru this morning say that Nabers is the most explosive player in this draft with amazing stop and start skills. He's assumed to be a top 10 pick and I don't see Jamarr Chase. I think this guy posts pedestrian numbers in the pros.

- Brian Thomas - Whatever my biases are against the hype for Nabers, they're more exaggerated for his teammate. This guy should not be a first round pick.

- JJ McCarthy - We've hashed it up thread, but I think the idea of this guy going in the first round, much less the top 5, is absolutely absurd. He's a byproduct of hype from his former coach, the silly notion of the Next Tom Brady, and being a game manager of a national title winner. Jay Barker has to be nearly comatose in a state of shock that he missed his window by 32 years. AJ McCarron has to be seething somewhere. Greg McElroy was recently seen handing out his resume and highlight tapes at a scouting happy hour.

- Dallas Turner - Take a look at his sophomore year and those are the numbers I expect for his first 3 years in the league. This guy is a loafing piece of shit unless he needs to get paid or he has a defenseless QB in his line of sight. I have to assume suspensions are going to impact his output as well.

- Terrion Arnold - The Saban Effect is the primary driver for the love affair for this guy. I have heard scout after scout laud his willingness to get involved in the running game and his pass deflections while poo-pooing the fact that he spent his entire career getting picked on at Bama while McKinstry patrolled the other side of the field.

- Xavier Legette - He can't run routes for shit. He has injury issues. He had one good season in college as one of the oldest guys on the field. Him being mentioned near the first round is a joke. 

Booms:

- Caleb Williams - I think he puts his off-field baby bullshit aside and gives the Bears the dominant QB player they have need for so long. 

- Marvin Harrison Jr - This guy is getting knocked more than Jack Tripper's front door and it makes no sense. This is the best WR in the draft and will be an annual pro bowler.

- Brock Bowers - I think he's the purest football player in the draft. He's tough, fast, hard-working, has great hands and will be a force against conventional match-ups. 

- Jared Verse - The opposite of Dallas Turner in every way. I think he'll be a standout.

- Jer'Zhan Newton - Maybe it's because I only watched 3-4 Illinois games last year, but in each one this guy was a disruption on the field on damned near every drive. He should be drafted around Murphy's pick yet I've seen him much lower. 

 - Payton Wilson - Similar to Newton, I felt like every game I saw with this guy in it, he was making plays and the offense had to worry about him constantly. 

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Fud

Fud 9552

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22 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

- Jer'Zhan Newton - Maybe it's because I only watched 3-4 Illinois games last year, but in each one this guy was a disruption on the field on damned near every drive. He should be drafted around Murphy's pick yet I've seen him much lower. 

 

 

Newton has a medical that could be dropping him 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49240

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Busts:

  • Yeah I went on record earlier in this thread that not a fan of JJ McCarthy in 1st Rd. 
  • Also Dallas Turner is likely a bust as a 1st Rd pick -- he just wasn't that productive at Bama and took a lot of plays off.

  • Tyler Guyton, blOU in 1st Rd is just too early and of course ou sucks!!!

  • If New England drafts a QB in top 5 that player will be a bust

  •  JC Latham, OT – Alabama hype is too inflated

  • Quinyon Mitchell, CB – Toledo.  Welcome to the NFL toledo guy...

Boom:

  • Jared Verse -- just deserves success for his effort and high motor
  • Byron Murphy (burnt orange glasses) just works his ass off and strong as hell.
  • Joe Alt

  • Cooper Beebe kstate if drafted end of 2nd Rd or later is a steal.  That dude is a damn mauler with a mean streak.

  • Definitely a Brock Bowers believer

  • Rome Odunze just fights off defenders and makes great catches

 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19032

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:
  • Also Dallas Turner is likely a bust as a 1st Rd pick -- he just wasn't that productive at Bama and took a lot of plays off.

  • Tyler Guyton, blOU in 1st Rd is just too early and of course ou sucks!!!

Boom:

  • Jared Verse -- just deserves success for his effort and high motor
  • Byron Murphy (burnt orange glasses) just works his ass off and strong as hell.

  • Rome Odunze just fights off defenders and makes great catches

TIL Charlie Strong posts on Surly under the handle LTTxfan, which actually explains a lot.

Edited by Burt Macklin
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Michael Knight

Michael Knight 12988

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

This is nuts. ESPN just said the first 6 picks could be QBs. Every team is chasing the Texans model of drafting a QB resulting in overnight success. 

The value in getting the right QB is so high it doesn't really matter if they bust

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Michael Knight

Michael Knight 12988

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Posted

Busts:

  • Every single QB sucks
  • Chop Robinson, dumb name baby face and went to pedo state
  • Dallas Turner yeah fuck him

Boom:

  • Byron Murphy I might be biased
  • Joe Alt I mean yeah but no one is gonna know his name anyways
  • Brock Bowers this guy is the next Travis Kelce
  • Marvin Harrison Jr
  • Xavier Worthy, yeah I'm probably biased

 

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11337

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Quinyon Mitchell, CB – Toledo.  Welcome to the NFL toledo guy...

Yep.  Workout wonders from small schools rarely workout in the NFL.

Maybe he's the exception that proves the rule, but the odds are against him.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11511

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

This is nuts. ESPN just said the first 6 picks could be QBs. Every team is chasing the Texans model of drafting a QB resulting in overnight success. 

Somewhat agree. Nix is first round reach and the only system he could plausibly succeed in Sean Payton’s offense. The Broncos mortgaging th farm to move up for Nix would be high comedy. 
 

The Patriots drafting JJ at 3 and repeating the Mac Jones mistake would be awesome. I’m here for it. 
 

I think Penix will be good. I know multiple knee surgeries, but the bionic man Taysom Hill is still in the league. 

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Fud

Fud 9552

Posted
Posted

 

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

This is nuts. ESPN just said the first 6 picks could be QBs. Every team is chasing the Texans model of drafting a QB resulting in overnight success. 

And you believe that?

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irishtexan

irishtexan 11521

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Posted

Bust:

Dallas Turner - He'll be a 6 to 8 sacks with 6 devastating roughing the passer penalties per year guy

JJ - For all the reasons listed above

Guyton - Because fuck OU. Unless he goes to the Cowboys and then he'll be awesome, right?

Bo Nix - That dude sucked for like 5 years and then in his 6th year he puts up a bunch of empty stats. He's gonna suck

 

Wilcard

Caleb Williams - His personality and ego are concerning, but he's a fucking amazing player.  

Jayden Daniels - He's either going to be awesome or he's gonna get absolutely fucking destroyed physically. Dude takes BIG hits, and it will be worse in the NFL

Amarius Mims - He's got all the tools but he's got very little experience. Not a lot to project, but could be awesome.

Drake Maye - Can he improve his decision making and accuracy and be another Josh Allen? Josh Allen's the anomaly. He's got the arm. I guess we'll see.

 

Boom

Penix - love this dude. I know he's old but he's the same age as Nix and is a much better QB who did more. Don't understand mock drafts that have Nix above him.

Cooper DeJean - I'm just rooting for a white corner to be successful.

Chop Robinson - Loved the few times I saw this dude play. I think he's gonna be good.

Then there are obvious guys like Bowers and Alt and Harrison Jr that I think most people agree are going to be fucking awesome and don't feel the need to reiterate. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49240

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Can't remember which draft guy said all this, but here yah go:

  • 1st 3 teams in Draft stay and pick QBs
  • 4th pick likely is a trade, and expects McCarthy selected
  • Jax & Indy trade up to get a top offensive player
  • 7 to 8 offensive tackles drafted in first 22 picks of the 1st Rd
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msucolt45

msucolt45 4062

Posted
Posted
Somewhat agree. Nix is first round reach and the only system he could plausibly succeed in Sean Payton’s offense. The Broncos mortgaging th farm to move up for Nix would be high comedy. 
 
The Patriots drafting JJ at 3 and repeating the Mac Jones mistake would be awesome. I’m here for it. 
 
I think Penix will be good. I know multiple knee surgeries, but the bionic man Taysom Hill is still in the league. 

I think Penix is the best “pure passer” of all the top 6 QBs mentioned. His previous injuries were prior to the previous two seasons, which both happened to end our FB season.

Hook’em!!!
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Fud

Fud 9552

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Posted
23 minutes ago, msucolt45 said:


I think Penix is the best “pure passer” of all the top 6 QBs mentioned. His previous injuries were prior to the previous two seasons, which both happened to end our FB season.

Hook’em!!!

Caleb is the most accurate passer of the bunch

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Fud

Fud 9552

Posted
Posted

1) Caleb Williams
2) Jayden Daniels
3) Drake Maye
4) Marvin Harrison Jr
5) Trade- Minnesota- JJ McCarthy
6) Rome Odunze
7) Joe Alt
'8) Trade- NYJ- Malik Nabers
9) Byron Murphy II
10) Trade- Atlanta- Dallas Turner
11) Trade- LAC- JC Latham
12) Brock Bowers
13) Michael Penix Jr
14) Olu Fashanu
15) Quinyon Mitchell
16) Trade- Philadelphia- Taliese Fuaga
17) Trade- Buffalo- Brian Thomas Jr
18) Amarius Mims
19) Troy Fautanu
20) Graham Barton
21) Laiatu Latu
22) Trade- Seattle- Terrion Arnold
23) Trade- LAC- Xavier Worthy
24) Tyler Guyton
25) Cooper DeJean
26) Nate Wiggins
27) Jared Verse
28) Trade- Jacksonville- Kool-Aid McKinstry
29) Jer'Zhan Newton
30) Chop Robinson
31) Jordan Morgan
32) Adonai Mitchell

 

 

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Fud

Fud 9552

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

Haven’t read anything in here. We could have 3 players drafted tonight. So is worthy not getting round 1 vibes? Round 2 I assume tomorrow.

Worthy seems to have been rising while Adonai has been falling this week, per the betting markets. Both could easily go tonight

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