2024 NFL DRAFT

[BurntOrange&White 41649]

11 minutes ago, Fud said:

He got passed up by younger and more talented people in the industry, and now he's kept around since he's a name

Bingo....

[Burt Macklin 19211]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Kiper posted his updated mock and also has Vikings picking McCarthy but at 11. He does have the NE and Commies QBs flipped from Jeremiah's. 

Jeremiah is wrong on the Broncos IMHO - they need a QB and if they can't get someone they are really high on then I'd expect them to trade down rather than pick an OL. Kiper has them picking Nix at 12 which would be...interesting. 

As for our guys:

19. Byron Murphy to Rams

26. Xavier Worthy to Bucs to catch passes from douchebag Baker

32. Adonai Mitchell to Chefs

 

I don’t think the Broncos need to draft a QB in round 1 this year. Their roster is an absolute mess. Even if they hit on a QB, they couldn’t build a good roster around him before he gets too expensive to win. They’re better off being terrible for the next couple seasons and stockpiling assets, then trying to find a QB in a year or two.
Plus Payton has plenty of job security so he doesn’t need to rush it. 

Edited March 19 by Burt Macklin

[Fud 9697]

 

[Bateshorn 9989]

4 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I don’t think the Broncos need to draft a QB in round 1 this year. Their roster is an absolute mess. Even if they hit on a QB, they couldn’t build a good roster around him before he gets too expensive to win. They’re better off being terrible for the next couple seasons and stockpiling assets, then trying to find a QB in a year or two.
Plus Payton has plenty of job security so he doesn’t need to rush it. 

This. Given the deadmoney hit they just took and everything else, the Broncos are in full tank now mode.  

[Burt Macklin 19211]

4 minutes ago, Fud said:

 

This is one of the more extreme drafts I can remember in terms of position depth. This might be the strongest OL draft in the last decades or two. WR and QB are also very strong. Edge is deep but lacking elite talent. LB and S are extremely weak. I’m expecting a couple guys at those spots to get overdrafted simply because they’re #1 at their position. 

[6th Street 6655]

Reaching for someone like Bo Nix would be a terrible move for the Broncos. They just dealt Jeudy and need to enter full rebuild mode. 

[The Dog 44771]

15 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I don’t think the Broncos need to draft a QB in round 1 this year. Their roster is an absolute mess. Even if they hit on a QB, they couldn’t build a good roster around him before he gets too expensive to win. They’re better off being terrible for the next couple seasons and stockpiling assets, then trying to find a QB in a year or two.
Plus Payton has plenty of job security so he doesn’t need to rush it. 

 

10 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This. Given the deadmoney hit they just took and everything else, the Broncos are in full tank now mode.  

If they aren't taking a QB then I think they should trade down and get more picks. I think that would make more sense. 

And Kiper's take of Denver taking Nix at 12 is insane.

[Fud 9697]

If Sean Payton truly loves Bo Nix and views him as both a day one starter and a second contract guy, then it's justifiable to take him at #12 and not risk someone trading ahead of you later in the draft to take him. I doubt he views him quite that way though

[6th Street 6655]

They should have traded for Justin Fields 

[Murfdogg21 4548]

Denver is in salary cap purgatory and their roster is shit. They should be trading back and picking up extra 2nd and 3rd round picks and hope to get as many to stick as possible. Taking Bo Nix at #12 is opposite of this. 

[Fud 9697]

5 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

They should have traded for Justin Fields 

Justin Fields is a poor fit for Payton's offense

[Juicy 729]

I think ATL is a test subject for teams building a solid roster and then trying to plug in a QB vs drafting a QB high and hoping you it. It is why they went big for Cousins, they have a decent roster so they could take a shot at a veteran. 

The Lions kind of did the same thing, they got Goff as a toss in in the Stafford deal, and instead of drafting a QB they just kept building pieces and were able to keep Goff around since he wasn't losing games for them. 

The bust potential for QBs is just so high, if you miss on one you not only threw away a draft pick, but you put yourself in a never ending cycle of chasing the QB. 

I think we are going to see a lot of teams that are going to build out rosters before chasing their QB. 

[BurntOrange&White 41649]

6 minutes ago, Juicy said:

I think ATL is a test subject for teams building a solid roster and then trying to plug in a QB vs drafting a QB high and hoping you it. It is why they went big for Cousins, they have a decent roster so they could take a shot at a veteran. 

The Lions kind of did the same thing, they got Goff as a toss in in the Stafford deal, and instead of drafting a QB they just kept building pieces and were able to keep Goff around since he wasn't losing games for them. 

The bust potential for QBs is just so high, if you miss on one you not only threw away a draft pick, but you put yourself in a never ending cycle of chasing the QB. 

I think we are going to see a lot of teams that are going to build out rosters before chasing their QB. 

Seems like the least risky strategy....just have to nail your drafts which Detroit has done, Atlanta....not as good as Detroit in that dept.

Edited March 19 by BurntOrange&White

[Fud 9697]

That's not a new strategy. Plenty of teams have tried it in the past, and nearly all have failed to win a super bowl 

[Murfdogg21 4548]

The recipe isn’t a mystery: good QB, good OL, good DL, and as many playmakers at WR and DB that you can fit in your salary cap. Since non-rookie contract QBs are the most expensive, drafting a star QB gives the most roster flexibility. OTOH first round QBs are busting at like a 75% rate in recent years, so do you want to play those odds? What was ATL supposed to do, draft JJ McCarthy or Bo Nix at #8 and hope for the best? Trade 3 first round picks to the Redskins or Patriots and take their chances with Maye or Daniels? Signing Cousins (who is a known commodity) allows them to keep their picks and get a difference maker at WR or DE with the #8 pick. 
 

4 of the last 9 Super Bowls were won by acquired QBs with a well rounded roster (Manning, Foles, Brady, Stafford).

[Fud 9697]

Signing Cousins allows you to use pick eight on a non-QB

Drafting a QB at eight allows you to spend more money in free agency 

There's not one way to eat a Reese's, I'm just pointing out that this isn't  ground breaking strategy, and that there are also plenty of examples of failures where teams wonder the wilderness looking for a replacement level QB to fill out their roster. See Denver post-Manning. 

[Burt Macklin 19211]

47 minutes ago, Juicy said:

I think ATL is a test subject for teams building a solid roster and then trying to plug in a QB vs drafting a QB high and hoping you it. It is why they went big for Cousins, they have a decent roster so they could take a shot at a veteran. 

The Lions kind of did the same thing, they got Goff as a toss in in the Stafford deal, and instead of drafting a QB they just kept building pieces and were able to keep Goff around since he wasn't losing games for them. 

The bust potential for QBs is just so high, if you miss on one you not only threw away a draft pick, but you put yourself in a never ending cycle of chasing the QB. 

I think we are going to see a lot of teams that are going to build out rosters before chasing their QB. 

It depends what your goal is. If you’re trying to win your division and make the playoffs every year, then the Cousin strategy works. If you’re trying to win a SB, it’s going to be almost impossible. 
 

The only QBs to win a Super Bowl in the last 15 years with a cap hit of more than $20 mil are Mahomes and Brady, and Brady only did it once. Most of his cap hits were around $15 mil when he won with NE, which was about half of market for a top QB. So you better be signing an all time great if you’re going to pay anywhere near market for a QB, otherwise it’s not happening. 

[Herpa Derpa 6317]

27 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

4 of the last 9 Super Bowls were won by acquired QBs with a well rounded roster (Manning, Foles, Brady, Stafford).

Those are also the only 4 in the past 20+ years that were acquired. Tampa and Denver were chosen by HOF QBs in the twilight who went to the best scenarios available. There was no insight or strategy necessary by the teams. Extremely unique situations highly unlikely to be duplicated. See Rodgers, Aaron. And Foles was drafted by the Eagles so he's a quasi homegrown QB.  So basically a single team move for a QB by the Rams resulted in a Super Bowl this millennium.

[Burt Macklin 19211]

1 hour ago, Murfdogg21 said:

4 of the last 9 Super Bowls were won by acquired QBs with a well rounded roster (Manning, Foles, Brady, Stafford).

This is pretty disingenuous. Manning and Brady were all time greats who took big pay cuts to win a last SB on a loaded roster. You can’t build a team around hoping you find that. 
 

Foles had one of the flukiest runs ever and was a backup QB getting paid $5 mil with a starting QB on a rookie deal. So this also isn’t a repeatable strategy to hope your backup QB has an all time playoff run and then never has a good year again for the rest of his career. 
 

Stafford’s really the only example in the last 20 years where it’s worked. 

[Foosters 18225]

what about Brock Osweiler to the Texans?

That worked out pretty well, iirc

[Murfdogg21 4548]

9 hours ago, Herpa Derpa said:

Those are also the only 4 in the past 20+ years that were acquired. Tampa and Denver were chosen by HOF QBs in the twilight who went to the best scenarios available. There was no insight or strategy necessary by the teams. Extremely unique situations highly unlikely to be duplicated. See Rodgers, Aaron. And Foles was drafted by the Eagles so he's a quasi homegrown QB.  So basically a single team move for a QB by the Rams resulted in a Super Bowl this millennium.

 

9 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

This is pretty disingenuous. Manning and Brady were all time greats who took big pay cuts to win a last SB on a loaded roster. You can’t build a team around hoping you find that. 
 

Foles had one of the flukiest runs ever and was a backup QB getting paid $5 mil with a starting QB on a rookie deal. So this also isn’t a repeatable strategy to hope your backup QB has an all time playoff run and then never has a good year again for the rest of his career. 
 

Stafford’s really the only example in the last 20 years where it’s worked. 

All true points. But the question was if ATL was better off reaching for a QB at #8 or blowing a lot of draft capital to get up in the top 3 for Mayes or Daniels, vs. signing Cousins and taking best player available with their draft pick. It isn’t a slam dunk that signing Cousins was the incorrect move. 

[Napoleon 8802]

22 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Graham Mertz and DJ Ukelele are awful lol.

Quinn needs to work on 1) deep pass accuracy and 2) arm angle so his passes don't get batted down so easily. If he can fix that, he's easily somewhere between 1-3 on that list.

3) Pocket Awareness/ Extending plays while going through his progressions.

I think that #3 is what is holding Quinn down the most.

If Quinn had declared for the draft this year, he would’ve been a 3rd to 5th round pick that a team would have planned to sit two years before seeing what they had. 

Quinn’s pocket awareness/ speed of goin through his progressions/ inability to extend plays are what would get him killed in the NFL right now.

The NFL rules that outlaw Dallas Turner-type plays would be his only hope of staying off the IR.

PS- Quinn is likely going to make more money this year via NIL than he would being drafted in the middle rounds, and he gets to continue to develop under a (former) NFL OC.

Edited March 20 by Napoleon

[tokamak 6685]

What's really interesting to me in the QB discussion is that there is hardly any middle class of veteran QBs. There's basically 3 classes of QB in the NFL:

1. guys on rookie deals making reasonable money
2. veteran backups making reasonable money
3. veteran starters making stratospheric money whether they deserve it or not

Looking at OverTheCap, there is exactly 1 QB in the entire NFL with a contract AAV that falls between $33m and $13m (Geno Smith making $25m/year).

[The Dog 44771]

 

[Macklemore 2945]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

 

[Macklemore 2945]

 

[kevwun 16269]

If I was a really good player who came from money, I would be tempted to not workout in the hopes of dropping to the bottom of the first round and ending up on a good team instead of wasting the first several years of my career playing for a shitty franchise.

Edited March 20 by kevwun

[The Dog 44771]

 

[cmontexas 3331]

Dwayne Jarrett vibes from MHJ

[Dewey 3325]

2 hours ago, Macklemore said:

 

Another reason to come to Texas 

[The Dog 44771]

LOL

[Pam Cummings 9823]

It's pretty cool that Quinn wants to throw for his teammates and help them out.

[satyanash 15355]

Woof.

 

[6th Street 6655]

JT needs to take some creatine or something 

[Atticus 4176]

How in the world does a high D1 athlete with short arms only put up 8 reps of 225 lb at his size?

The vertical and broad jump are also underwhelming. He's losing some money today.

[The Dog 44771]

JT gonna fall off teams' boards at this rate. Wow.

[Fud 9697]

4 minutes ago, Atticus said:

How in the world does a high D1 athlete with short arms only put up 8 reps of 225 lb at his size?

The vertical and broad jump are also underwhelming. He's losing some money today.

Usually when there's a far below expected bench, it's because the player couldn't train due to an injury (usually shoulder) 

[speed817 19844]

19 minutes ago, Atticus said:

How in the world does a high D1 athlete with short arms only put up 8 reps of 225 lb at his size?

The vertical and broad jump are also underwhelming. He's losing some money today.

Needed more reps with South Austin's mom

[LTtxfan 49909]

3 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

 

 

[LTtxfan 49909]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

LOL

Maybe he ends up doing a few private workouts??  What's the character intel on Marvin H ??

[Park Gothic 5343]

21 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Maybe he ends up doing a few private workouts??  What's the character intel on Marvin H ??

Those twitter posters are both making a joke. The Jacksonville Jaguars pick 17th in the draft this year. That's why the guy with the jaguar in his handle is saying MHJ should drop out of the top 16. I'm assuming the second poster is a Steelers fan, because the Steelers pick 20th. 

MHJ is not working out because he doesn't have to. He will be WR1 off the board. 

[SA-KC_Horn 1298]

55 minutes ago, The Dog said:

JT gonna fall off teams' boards at this rate. Wow.

Right into Kansas City's lap!

[The Dog 44771]

6 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

Those twitter posters are both making a joke. The Jacksonville Jaguars pick 17th in the draft this year. That's why the guy with the jaguar in his handle is saying MHJ should drop out of the top 16. I'm assuming the second poster is a Steelers fan, because the Steelers pick 20th. 

MHJ is not working out because he doesn't have to. He will be WR1 off the board. 

correct on the first. UrinatingTree is Steelers fan.

on the second - rumor is NFL teams advised him to not work out. 

[LTtxfan 49909]

Who might be the most overrated 2024 NFL Draft prospects??

I believe Dallas Turner (Bama DE) drafted in the 1st Rd is a mistake.

Found this article that discusses possible offensive busts in 2024 NFL Draft

Quote

Overrated 2024 NFL Draft Prospects

Matt Waldman: Here is a nice list of prospects who could have a meaningful fantasy impact in 2024.

• Caleb Williams
• Drake Maye
• Michael Penix Jr.
• Jayden Daniels
• Trey Benson
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Malik Nabers
• Rome Udunze
• Keon Coleman
• Brock Bowers
• Blake Corum
• Marshawn Lloyd
• Braelon Allen
• Audric Estime

Pick one from this list you believe is overrated based on his current media buzz.

Christian Williams: Michael Penix Jr. is the most overrated player on this list, not because of talent but because of injury and age concerns that could limit draft capital upside. Penix is a great deep ball thrower operating a well-designed offense, but the injuries he's experienced show up on film (his movement skills are much worse now than when he was a freshman). He's also an older prospect. Penix looks like a second-round pick, at best, giving him a lot less value than some are speculating.

Jeff Bell: Braelon Allen emerged as a true freshman with 1,268 yards. Then, he proceeded not to get much better. Allen never played Penn State or Michigan and posted 215 yards across two games against Ohio State, 75 of which came on a touchdown run down 52-14. Metrics are going to love him; he has size and production. Many will point to increased passing game production, but that was nominal short usage; the team needed to allow him to show the ability to track the ball down the field. I have seen him as RB1 for several people, but he is not there for me.

Daniel Harms: I agree with Jeff. Braelon Allen has been getting talked up for years since he was a freshman. Allen saw his production dip dramatically in his last season at Wisconsin due to a new offensive system implemented by Luke Fickell. Allen is more of a throwback runner who does his best work downhill and in a straight line. His lateral agility could be better, pass protection is a problem, and he struggles to catch the football. He will need to find the perfect fit to be fantasy-relevant.

Zareh Kantzabedian: Marshawn Lloyd is an elusive back with an efficient 2023 season at USC. However, we have not seen a season where he's received many rush attempts or receptions. At 5-foot-9 and 215 pounds, Lloyd has the size to carry a full workload. But being a high-volume running back is a learned skill. It's fine to expect quality production out of Lloyd in the NFL, but we've seen running backs with similar collegiate touch profiles have turbulent NFL careers. Dameon Pierce is the most recent.

Matt Montgomery: Caleb Williams. This may seem like a cheap clickbait pop for views, but we need to settle down on the generational Caleb Williams talk. Yes, he plays a style of football not comparable to many players, but he is also playing with arguably the best offensive coach in the sport who is not in the NFL. The likelihood that Williams goes to the NFL and gets a coaching upgrade is low, not to mention the rookie highs and lows he will experience, which don't bode well for an immediate impact like that of a C.J. Stroud. 2024 will be too early to truly encapsulate what he can be as a pro

 

https://www.footballguys.com/article/2023-roundtable-week-16-overrated-underrated-2024-nfl-draft-prospects

 

[Napoleon 8802]

14 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Who might be the most overrated 2024 NFL Draft prospects??

I believe Dallas Turner (Bama DE) drafted in the 1st Rd is a mistake.

Found this article that discusses possible offensive busts in 2024 NFL Draft

 

article hot take:

Christian Williams: Michael Penix Jr. is the most overrated player on this list, not because of talent but because of injury and age concerns that could limit draft capital upside. Penix is a great deep ball thrower operating a well-designed offense, but the injuries he's experienced show up on film (his movement skills are much worse now than when he was afreshman). He's also an older prospect. Penix looks like a second-round pick, at best,giving him a lot less value than some are speculating.

🙄

Agreed! You do NOT want a QB with tons of starting experience who throws beautiful deep balls and has learned to bide his time in the pocket while avoiding pressure before launching pinpoint passes who will be on a 5 year rookie contract.

You want a younger guy with limited starts and inferior production.  

[Fud 9697]

Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy are my answers for most overrated 

After those guys I think the highly rated guys deserve it 

Dallas Turner is a popular overrated pick here. I think he'd be overrated in the top five where he'd go in some past drafts there were weaker at the top, but if he's falling into the teens, I think he's a good value. I think he most likely goes around pick eight, which is about right 

[Fud 9697]

A good draft primer

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/idiots-guide-to-the-2024-nfl-draft/id1528622068?i=1000649964522

[Fud 9697]

Brugler says Marshawn Kneeland is his pick for a surprise first rounder

[Fud 9697]

New beat writer mock

 

1) Caleb Williams

2) Jayden Daniels

3) Trade- Minnesota- Drake Maye

4) Marvin Harrison Jr

5) Malik Nabers

6) Rome Odunze

7) Joe Alt

'8) Trade- Denver- JJ McCarthy

9) Dallas Turner

10) Brock Bowers

11) Trade- New England- Olu Fashanu

12) Trade- Atlanta- Quinyon Mitchell

13) Terrion Arnold

14) JC Latham

15) Brian Thomas Jr

16) Troy Fautanu

17) Jared Verse

18) Taliese Fuaga

19) Byron Murphy II

20) Amarius Mims

21) Trade- Las Vegas- Michael Penix Jr

22) Cooper DeJean

23) Trade- New England- Adonai Mitchell

24) Tyler Guyton

25) Nate Wiggins

26) Kool-Aid McKinstry

27) Laiatu Latu

28) Darius Robinson

29) Jackson Powers-Johnson

30) Jordan Morgan

31) Graham Barton 

32) Kingsley Suamataia

 

Teams without a first

33) Ladd McConkey

42) Troy Franklin 

44) Xavier Worthy

54) Mike Hall Jr

 

https://x.com/BenStandig/status/1770820796153221384?s=20

[DixonHur 11941]

3 hours ago, Fud said:

Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy are my answers for most overrated 

Not sure how I feel about Jayden.  He's got the size and athleticism to be really special, but his accuracy on out routes and shallow crosses raises some concerns.  

I think JJ is seemingly easier to project.  To me, he reads like a really good back-ups.  Perhaps a mid-tier starter in the right system.  One that doesn't ask him to do much more than being a "game manager".