2024 NFL DRAFT

[tx 3 putt 76,875]

 

[billfromlaketravis 11,448]

33 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Meh. I’d be more worried about him sobbing in his mother’s lap after a game. 

[closetohumping 17,435]

Last week Jayden Daniels was odds on favorite to be #2 pick.  This week DC brought the top four qbs together and apparently Daniels didn’t handle it well. Drake Maye has closed the gap big time

[Tylerocks 2,553]

Damn...that's sad.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39964324/albany-nfl-draft-hopeful-aj-simon-dies-age-25

[LTtxfan 49,148]

8 minutes ago, Tylerocks said:

Damn...that's sad.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39964324/albany-nfl-draft-hopeful-aj-simon-dies-age-25

 

Damn...  Former Albany defensive lineman AJ Simon, who was hoping to be selected in next week's NFL draft, has died at the age of 25, the school announced Wednesday.

The cause of Simon's death wasn't immediately known.

 

[LTtxfan 49,148]

On 1/30/2024 at 8:54 AM, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

ESPN did a write up about potential stock risers.  Jones got a mention. 

Continues to get more mentions -- really hope Christian gets drafted earlier than expected.   🤘

[LTtxfan 49,148]

On 2/5/2024 at 9:25 PM, LTtxfan said:

I just don't get the love for JJ...  1st Rd Bust

 

I may be taking the "L" for this comment down the road -- just really surprised that JJ McCarthy is now likely going in Top 6 picks.

[tx 3 putt 76,875]

On 4/20/2024 at 10:02 AM, LTtxfan said:

 

I may be taking the "L" for this comment down the road -- just really surprised that JJ McCarthy is now likely going in Top 6 picks.

 

but, but Tom Brady !!!!!

[Fud 9,552]

With the LAC's pick at #37, it'll be interesting to see who Harbaugh picks between Roman Wilson, Kris Jenkins, Junior Colson, and Mike Sainristill 

[Juicy 725]

Out of those guys have to go Sainristill. Dude is going to be like the honey badger, just a heady dude that makes big plays. 

This one was the beginning of the end for Ohio State

[Texzilla588 769]

I think this qb class is vastly overrated. Great college qbs that I'm not sure will translate well to NFL and may have long term issues. I wouldn't want to be one of the teams needing to draft a qb early. Later rounds may produce better long term prospects.

I agree. The fact is for each one, none have a play of film going up against an NFL pass rush, faced the array of NFL blitz packages, or the speed and brains of NFZl secondaries. How many have huge experience under center and 3, 5, and 7 step drops? And the top ones are going to shit situations usually with shitty lines and poor QB development in the staff. It’s not even a 50/50 bet.

[LTtxfan 49,148]

On 4/18/2024 at 10:30 AM, DougO said:

I think this qb class is vastly overrated. Great college qbs that I'm not sure will translate well to NFL and may have long term issues. I wouldn't want to be one of the teams needing to draft a qb early. Later rounds may produce better long term prospects.

Yeah... can't remember which was worst year, but in the past at least 3 or 4 QBs were drafted 1st Rd in same year and all ended up as flops.

Article...

https://www.deseret.com/2021/4/18/22371760/2021-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-byu-zach-wilson-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-mac-jones-trey-lance/

 

2007 was not good

 

Article:

https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-busts

 

2019 wasn't great either

 

 

Edited April 22 by LTtxfan

[Fud 9,552]

 

[LTtxfan 49,148]

In DJ's Big Board Top 150, 1st Rd of talent...

 

 

[closetojumping 62,568]

10 minutes ago, Fud said:

 

Christian Jones at 55 is quite the jump.

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

17 minutes ago, Fud said:

 

Rankings aren't the same as a mock draft, but Jeremiah's mock draft is arguably the best in the business.  His final version last year was the only one on the planet that had the Texans trading back up for Will Anderson, which seemed insane when he suggested it.

Edited April 22 by Chuckie Finster

[BurntOrange&White 39,930]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

Rankings aren't the same as a mock draft, but Jeremiah's mock draft is arguably the best in the business.  His final version last year was the only one on the planet that had the Texans trading back up for Will Anderson, which seemed insane when he suggested it.

It's still insane even to think about now. 

[Fud 9,552]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

Rankings aren't the same as a mock draft, but Jeremiah's mock draft is arguably the best in the business.  His final version last year was the only one that had the Texans trading back up for Will Anderson last year, which seemed insane when he suggested it.

Because of his background (scout for several strong franchises) and job (lead draft guy for NFL.com), he has the best access in the industry, so his final rankings should be viewed as the closest you'll get to a consensus, although I'm sure some of it is his own opinions sprinkled in 

[LTtxfan 49,148]

1 minute ago, Fud said:

Because of his background (scout for several strong franchises) and job (lead draft guy for NFL.com), he has the best access in the industry, so his final rankings should be viewed as the closest you'll get to a consensus, although I'm sure some of it is his own opinions sprinkled in 

Really appreciate all your updates on draft!! 🤘

[Fud 9,552]

 

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

Just noticed Jeremiah has Sweat at 114. Yeah, that’s gonna be one hell of an expensive DWI.

[The Dog 44,019]

On 4/20/2024 at 10:02 AM, LTtxfan said:

 

I may be taking the "L" for this comment down the road -- just really surprised that JJ McCarthy is now likely going in Top 6 picks.

you're not alone. the big risk for JJ is that he simply doesn't have enough tape to show what his weaknesses are and I think he's getting the benefit of the doubt as a result.

and the whole "BUT HE'S A WINNER" is total malarkey. he played for a HS power in Illinois that just finished winning back to back state titles without him and his senior year was at IMG. 

Then he played on one of the most talented Michigan teams ever.

He didn't win all those games because he was a differentiator - he was driving a Ferrari and didn't wreck it.

ETA - Daniel Jeremiah has been saying how "teams are higher on JJ than the public" but he's changed that take to say that NFL coaches aren't nearly as high on him as scouts. In fact, coaches like Penix as QB2 ahead of everyone else but williams.

Edited April 22 by The Dog

[LTtxfan 49,148]

Klatt’s Final 2024 NFL Mock Draft

2 hours ago

[Jive Turkey 12,594]

this feels like the 2018 draft.  i'm reading that at least 5 QBs will be taken in the first round, with 4 in the top 10.  2018 had 5 QBs taken in the first round, with 4 in the top 10.

1. Baker Mayfield

3. Sam Darnold

7. Josh Allen

10. Josh Rosen

32. Lamar Jackson, N

you have two difference makers here, and they're probably the two who most pundits didn't think would be productive QBs.  so many people thought Josh Allen was taken too high because of his low completion rate in college (and the competition he faced).  and many didn't think Lamar could be an NFL QB, period. 

maybe there will be two productive QBs from the 2024 draft amongst Caleb, Daniels, Maye, JJ, Penix, Nix.  but your guess is as good as mine as to which two turn into something (if any of them do). 

Edited April 22 by Jive Turkey

[Fud 9,552]

I don't think five in the first round is a lock 

[Bolero88 277]

 

1 hour ago, Fud said:

 

If the Cowboys take an Aggie LB in the first round I'm gonna puke. 

Edited April 22 by Bolero88

[Burt Macklin 19,020]

44 minutes ago, Fud said:

I don't think five in the first round is a lock 

Yeah, I would guess the O/U for QBs in round 1 is 4.5. 4 seems like a lock, but Penix and Nix are both questionable to go round 1. Basically a toss up of whether a team tries to sneak into the end of the first or just wait until Day 2. 

[6th Street 6,390]

Penix in late round 1/round 2 seems to be a much better value than reaching for McCarthy or Nix.

[The Dog 44,019]

 

[4th&Five 41,519]

Quite a QB room they have there!

[kevwun 15,769]

2 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Penix in late round 1/round 2 seems to be a much better value than reaching for McCarthy or Nix.

Yeah, Penix will most likely be solid IF he can stay healthy.  Nix otoh is just lighting a draft pick on fire.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,230]

 

[LTtxfan 49,148]

5 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Yeah, I would guess the O/U for QBs in round 1 is 4.5. 4 seems like a lock, but Penix and Nix are both questionable to go round 1. Basically a toss up of whether a team tries to sneak into the end of the first or just wait until Day 2. 

 

Still think at 4.5 O/U for QBs in 1st Rd, I'd take the over.   That 5th yr option in their contract  might end up being pretty valuable for some teams.  

[LTtxfan 49,148]

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Eight trades include Giants landing surprise QB as six signal-callers go in Round 1

By R.J. White      9 hrs ago

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-mock-draft-eight-trades-include-giants-landing-surprise-qb-as-six-signal-callers-go-in-round-1/

 

 

[LTtxfan 49,148]

Nabers at #13 pick seems late.  First mock where Atlanta takes a CB ???  Nix at #11 wow...

And this...

https://www.nfl.com/news/seven-round-2024-nfl-mock-draft-round-1

Edited April 23 by LTtxfan
Damn autocorrect

[LTtxfan 49,148]

Some second tier QBs are interesting...

• Bo Nix
• Michael Pratt
• Spencer Rattler
• Jordan Travis
• Sam Hartman
• Devin Leary
• Austin Reed

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/QB/1/2024

[Fud 9,552]

14 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Still think at 4.5 O/U for QBs in 1st Rd, I'd take the over.   That 5th yr option in their contract  might end up being pretty valuable for some teams.  

The 5th year option isn't really much of a consideration anymore. A few years ago it became more expensive and isn't that much of a bargain, especially at premium positions 

[Fud 9,552]

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Some second tier QBs are interesting...

• Bo Nix
• Michael Pratt
• Spencer Rattler
• Jordan Travis
• Sam Hartman
• Devin Leary
• Austin Reed

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/QB/1/2024

Rattler is the guy, but he's someone I'd want in the 4th round learning the ropes for a couple of years, not in the 2nd round competing for the job day one

[The Dog 44,019]

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Some second tier QBs are interesting...

• Bo Nix
• Michael Pratt
• Spencer Rattler
• Jordan Travis
• Sam Hartman
• Devin Leary
• Austin Reed

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/QB/1/2024

I wouldn't lump Nix in with those guys based on their ratings. Their "tiers" seem to be:

Caleb Williams

Daniels/Maye/Penix

McCarthy/Nix

Everyone else.

[6th Street 6,390]

This is going to be almost as bad as that 2021 class where a bunch of QB hungry teams pass up guaranteed starters like Micah Parsons to chase bums like Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, and Josh Fields.

[ChickenSandwich 9,829]

I think Sam Hartman could be a good pick in the late rounds. He fell off a cliff at ND but looked the part previously. 

[6th Street 6,390]

Jordan Travis too if they can re-attach his leg 

[Bateshorn 9,927]

39 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

This is going to be almost as bad as that 2021 class where a bunch of QB hungry teams pass up guaranteed starters like Micah Parsons to chase bums like Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, and Josh Fields.

Brock Bowers is going to fall to some team in the 10-20 range because people lose their minds reaching for QBs. 

[Fud 9,552]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Brock Bowers is going to fall to some team in the 10-20 range because people lose their minds reaching for QBs. 

Reportedly some teams in the top ten don't want to draft him due to the low historical hit rate in the top ten for the position 

[The Dog 44,019]

 

[VirginiaLonghorn 4,769]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

 

… and for every guy in the know who says it’s going to be Maye, there’s another guy in the know who says Daniels.  Skins brass is really playing their card tightly.

[LTtxfan 49,148]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

I wouldn't lump Nix in with those guys.  Their "tiers" seem to be:

• Caleb Williams
• Daniels/Maye/Penix
• McCarthy/Nix
• Everyone else

Wow, I've seen rumors that McCarthy is likely between picks 2 & 4 and definitely before Penix.  Penix has moved into 1st Rd but not in top 5 picks, and Nix is probably falling into the 2nd Rd.

[closetojumping 62,568]

32 minutes ago, Fud said:

Reportedly some teams in the top ten don't want to draft him due to the low historical hit rate in the top ten for the position 

And yet people are going fucking nuts about Malik Nabors being a top 10 pick. The two LSU WRs in this draft class might be as overrated as anyone. They averaged weak separation, played in a down SEC, and they had a wildman at QB dropping dimes and running around until he could throw them open. Nabors being ranked on par with Odunze and Harrison Jr is as laughable as someone not wanting to take a fucking Superman at TE because other, unrelated guys in the past didn't pan out in the same draft area.

And really, the "low historical hit rate in the top ten for the position" is such a weird premise in the first place. Hockenson and Pitts have had shit heaped onto them from different places but Hockenson is putting together an excellent career even if he isn't trending towards the HoF. Pitts got Johnsoned as bad as anyone on the Atlanta roster. His first season, before the idiot decided to fuck with him as some sort of decoy half the time, was terrific outside of the lack of TDs. Anything further back than 2018 is not a data point. Things change. 

[LTtxfan 49,148]

On 4/22/2024 at 9:52 AM, LTtxfan said:

Yeah... can't remember which was worst year, but in the past at least 3 or 4 QBs were drafted 1st Rd in same year and all ended up as flops.

Article on 2021 1st Rd QBs...

https://www.deseret.com/2021/4/18/22371760/2021-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-byu-zach-wilson-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-mac-jones-trey-lance/

Article:

https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-busts

 

 

New graphic on 1st Rd 2021 QB draft class...

 

Trevor Lawrence (1st Rd 2021 draft) is still with Jaguars...

[Bateshorn 9,927]

2 hours ago, Fud said:

Reportedly some teams in the top ten don't want to draft him due to the low historical hit rate in the top ten for the position 

I saw that article. This is kinda of a weird draft in that it's deep, but outside of Harrison Jr., Bowers, and maybe Caleb Williams, none of the players jump off the page at you.  Don't get me wrong, many of them may be stars and all pros, but this draft seems to lack guys that just scream "IT"