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2024 NFL DRAFT

LTtxfan

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11784

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Kiper has AD Mitchell as the only Longhorn in the first round. 
 

975 Houston was discussing a mock that had Murphy going to the Texans in the first round. I don’t recall the name. 
 

I think the Horns will do work in the second round, but I think we’ll be fortunate to get 1 first rounder. It’ll probably be AD, but he needs to test well. 

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25654

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All of our receiving talent with first couple of round potential has some obvious weaknesses they need to work on showing up better on during all the pre-draft evaluations

1.  Sanders isn't much of a blocker, at all.  That one is probably least relevant/detrimental given how the biggest names at TE are pass catchers more than blockers but could cause him to fall on boards of teams who value that kind of skill in a TE.  Not sure he will get a chance to do much about that given limited contact nature of pre-draft workouts.  

2.  Worthy and his ball-tracking skills.  This has been beaten to death so no need to say any more.  He can't do anything about being a toothpick who will probably throw up 5 reps on the bench.

3.  AD can be a lazy route runner.  This is the one thing he has put on tape that he has to convince NFL teams isn't going to continue to be an issue because that shit doesn't fly. If he can't could be difference between 1st and 2nd rounds.  

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6344

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16 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Kiper has AD Mitchell as the only Longhorn in the first round. 
 

975 Houston was discussing a mock that had Murphy going to the Texans in the first round. I don’t recall the name. 
 

I think the Horns will do work in the second round, but I think we’ll be fortunate to get 1 first rounder. It’ll probably be AD, but he needs to test well. 

Murphy is starting to get more R1 attention it seems. He will probably test very well. I’m starting to think he’ll be the highest pick among UT players, with a good chance of going in the first.

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Had Enough

Had Enough 2108

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As best I can tell, Mitchell has never been the #1 target on any of his teams. In only 7 of 30 games has he caught 4 or more passes. He’s tall but not overly physical it seems. He hasn’t caught 100 passes and it’d be surprising if he was the primary focus for an opponent’s gameplan. If you’re drafted in round 1, aren’t you a #1 WR that gets heavy targets? He hasn’t shown that to date.

Worthy for example caught 4 or more in 11 games this year alone and mid to high 20s in 39 games. Sanders is at about 14 of 27 games.

It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3379

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Kiper has AD Mitchell as the only Longhorn in the first round. 
 
975 Houston was discussing a mock that had Murphy going to the Texans in the first round. I don’t recall the name. 
 
I think the Horns will do work in the second round, but I think we’ll be fortunate to get 1 first rounder. It’ll probably be AD, but he needs to test well. 
Kiper is a blowhard, his mocks have been shit for years. Anyone on NFL network is better, I usually look at at Jeremiah Daniels.
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49906

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I hope Murphy continues to get enough love to be a 1st Rd pick -- he's only Longhorn that I expect to go Day 1.

Day 2 could see 4 more Horns selected:

  • Sweat
  • Worthy
  • Sanders
  • Mitchell

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49906

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3-Team Trade Kicks Off 2024 NFL Mock Draft

  • Broncos get: Tua Tagovailoa, No. 137 pick
  • Dolphins get: Justin Fields, No. 81 pick, Broncos 2025 second-round pick
  • Bears get: No. 182 pick, Dolphins 2025 third-round pick, Broncos 2025 sixth-round pick

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/cummings-2024-nfl-mock-draft-saturday-divisional-round/

 

Surprised to see 7 Horns in 1st 3 Rds...

  • No. 17 overall: Texas DT Byron Murphy - Jacksonville Jaguars

  • No. 39 overall: Texas WR Xavier Worthy - Baltimore Ravens

  • No. 47 overall: Texas WR Adonai Mitchell - New York Giants

  • No. 49 overall: Texas DT T'Vondre Sweat - Cincinnati Bengals

  • No. 59 overall: Texas RB Jonathon Brooks - Houston Texans

  • No. 69 overall: Texas TE Ja'Tavion Sanders - Los Angeles Chargers

  • No. 88 overall: Texas LB Jaylan Ford - Green Bay Packers

https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/lists/seven-longhorns-selected-within-first-three-rounds-of-latest-nfl-mock-draft/

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The Dog

The Dog 44771

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1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

3-Team Trade Kicks Off 2024 NFL Mock Draft

  • Broncos get: Tua Tagovailoa, No. 137 pick
  • Dolphins get: Justin Fields, No. 81 pick, Broncos 2025 second-round pick
  • Bears get: No. 182 pick, Dolphins 2025 third-round pick, Broncos 2025 sixth-round pick

good heavens, NO!!!

The last thing the Broncos need to do is trade any picks (unless it's trading down for more picks.

They need to ditch Russ and embrace the tank for a full rebuild. 

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

3-Team Trade Kicks Off 2024 NFL Mock Draft

  • Broncos get: Tua Tagovailoa, No. 137 pick
  • Dolphins get: Justin Fields, No. 81 pick, Broncos 2025 second-round pick
  • Bears get: No. 182 pick, Dolphins 2025 third-round pick, Broncos 2025 sixth-round pick

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/cummings-2024-nfl-mock-draft-saturday-divisional-round/

 

Surprised to see 7 Horns in 1st 3 Rds...

  • No. 17 overall: Texas DT Byron Murphy - Jacksonville Jaguars

  • No. 39 overall: Texas WR Xavier Worthy - Baltimore Ravens

  • No. 47 overall: Texas WR Adonai Mitchell - New York Giants

  • No. 49 overall: Texas DT T'Vondre Sweat - Cincinnati Bengals

  • No. 59 overall: Texas RB Jonathon Brooks - Houston Texans

  • No. 69 overall: Texas TE Ja'Tavion Sanders - Los Angeles Chargers

  • No. 88 overall: Texas LB Jaylan Ford - Green Bay Packers

https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/lists/seven-longhorns-selected-within-first-three-rounds-of-latest-nfl-mock-draft/

Murphy is pretty much the consensus best Longhorn in the draft. Scouts love him.

I think Brooks goes lower since he's still recovering from injury. 

Everyone should hedge on Worthy until he goes to the combine. He's a little dude but if he throws down a great 40 he'll go pretty high. If he runs something like a 4.59 then he'll drop like a brick. Still, he doesn't fit the profile of a first round receiver IMHO. 

Mitchell is the opposite - fits the profile but has warts on tape so he'll fall and has a high chance of being one of those "how did everyone pass on this guy" types if he puts in the work.

Sweat also needs to test well and if he does might go a lot higher - he's just so dang big.

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Had Enough

Had Enough 2108

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Murphy is pretty much the consensus best Longhorn in the draft. Scouts love him.
I think Brooks goes lower since he's still recovering from injury. 
Everyone should hedge on Worthy until he goes to the combine. He's a little dude but if he throws down a great 40 he'll go pretty high. If he runs something like a 4.59 then he'll drop like a brick. Still, he doesn't fit the profile of a first round receiver IMHO. 
Mitchell is the opposite - fits the profile but has warts on tape so he'll fall and has a high chance of being one of those "how did everyone pass on this guy" types if he puts in the work.
Sweat also needs to test well and if he does might go a lot higher - he's just so dang big.

I have no idea where they’ll go, but the NFL is pro smallish, quick twitch, create separation guys. Now, he may be too skinny for their liking, but Flowers, Waddle, Duvonts Smith, Jordan Addison, Tank Dell are similar profiles. Small, quick twitch with run after catch skills. Then last years draft you had Quinton Johnston and Jonathan Mingo drafted who are taller guys that did little. In the 2022 draft you had Garrett Wilson, Olave, Jahan Dotson on the smallish side. Also Drake London and Treylon Burks as the bigger guys.

And many of the successful guys had a rather sustained level of production at the collegiate level which Worthy does.

Worthy’s biggest weakness is making the catch against tight coverage. Do NFL guys think he can create enough separation to offset that.
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BurntEyes

BurntEyes 6198

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1 hour ago, Had Enough said:

And many of the successful guys had a rather sustained level of production at the collegiate level which Worthy does.

Worthy’s biggest weakness is making the catch against tight coverage. Do NFL guys think he can create enough separation to offset that.

I largely agree with the sentiment on this page regarding Worthy. The other issues I noted beyond separation is adjustment to the ball in air. He's usually great, but not always consistent and his hands are the second. He made some amazing catches but he also dropped too many over his career.

They will evaluate all 4 aspects. His 40 times noted above are the make or break as it is a way to provide that separation. However, it also requires great mid-air adjustment and super glue hands for the NFL scouts to move him to a 1st round.

I think AD has shown more consistent hands and adjustment, and most here it seems agree. The lazy routes are an easier fix than physics of regarding Worthy. As such, if AD does well, he's a lower risk, imo, with admittedly lower upside than Worthy for an NFL team.

But.. that's just like my opinion man.

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Ignatius

Ignatius 4125

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On 1/23/2024 at 12:42 PM, LTtxfan said:

Decent CFB player... but just don't expect his NFL results to warrant him being a 1st Rd top 10 pick.  Dallas Turner just was not a jump off the page dominant player this season.   NFL linemen are gonna maul the guy.  I project him as a 1st Rd bust.

Weren’t you saying the same shit about Will Anderson this time last year?

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Had Enough

Had Enough 2108

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I largely agree with the sentiment on this page regarding Worthy. The other issues I noted beyond separation is adjustment to the ball in air. He's usually great, but not always consistent and his hands are the second. He made some amazing catches but he also dropped too many over his career.
They will evaluate all 4 aspects. His 40 times noted above are the make or break as it is a way to provide that separation. However, it also requires great mid-air adjustment and super glue hands for the NFL scouts to move him to a 1st round.
I think AD has shown more consistent hands and adjustment, and most here it seems agree. The lazy routes are an easier fix than physics of regarding Worthy. As such, if AD does well, he's a lower risk, imo, with admittedly lower upside than Worthy for an NFL team.
But.. that's just like my opinion man.

I think Worthy’s year 2 will be discounted somewhat regarding drops and tracking. It’ll be pretty easy to explain away the drops because of a broken hand. His drop rate this year and I believe freshman year was lower than Flowers last year and Marvin Harrison Jr this year. His sophomore drop rate was more the outlier. Mitchell’s was great this year with only one drop, but he was 17% as a frosh. Typically, fans of their own team scrutinize the hell out of their team but far less so of others.

The tracking consideration is similar, in my opinion. He didn’t have that issue as a frosh. He didn’t really have that this year. You can reference that UW play. I put that more on timing than tracking. Sanders had one or two in that UW game too. Last year you had instances of Sanders, Whittington, Roschon having plays with difficulty finding the ball.

Overall Worthy has a lot of production so he’ll have lots of positive plays that can provide counters to the perceived negative ones. I saw one scouting report that referenced a 10.5 100M, a 4.29 40. We shall see.
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CashMcCoy

CashMcCoy 3404

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21 hours ago, The Dog said:

Everyone should hedge on Worthy until he goes to the combine. He's a little dude but if he throws down a great 40 he'll go pretty high. If he runs something like a 4.59 then he'll drop like a brick.

Worthy could trip and fall out the gates and still run a 4.59. I’d hope he could easily go sub-4.4 if the ankle is good to go.

Last year’s times for reference:

IMG_3589.thumb.jpeg.6fbf7ba7f0c361545afe9995a5ae230e.jpeg

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The Dog

The Dog 44771

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On 1/29/2024 at 7:43 AM, LTtxfan said:

CFB Insider Bruce Feldman: Why Michael Penix Jr. Could Go Undrafted | The Rich Eisen Show 

 

11 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

*If* Penix gets drafted? Lol jfc come on

I mentioned this interview/article the other day then read the article when it came out and there wasn't anything in there about Penix going "undrafted" from what I saw. What I did read was that he could drop to a later round due to injury concerns. 

Click-baity title from the Eisen show. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49906

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On 1/28/2024 at 4:44 PM, pacman said:

Top 5 Fastest Players on Day 1 of the 2024 Shrine Bowl (msn.com)

1. Ryan Watts, Texas Longhorns 20.85 MPH

2. Myles Harden, South Dakota

3. Tyler Owens, Tech

4. Mark Perry, TCU

5. Daequan Hardy, Penn State

NFL listing Watts only as a safety -- still don't understand why Watts didn't have more reps at safety for Texas.   😕

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pyrofiend

pyrofiend 63

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Christian Jones has surprisingly good measurables. Of the Senior Bowl offensive linemen he has the 4th longest arms (34 7/8") and the 2nd longest wingspan. The NFL looks for 34+ inch arms on tackles, so I think he becomes our 8th drafted player this year.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18183

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On 1/29/2024 at 7:59 AM, CashMcCoy said:

Worthy could trip and fall out the gates and still run a 4.59. I’d hope he could easily go sub-4.4 if the ankle is good to go.

Last year’s times for reference:

IMG_3589.thumb.jpeg.6fbf7ba7f0c361545afe9995a5ae230e.jpeg

Yeah, the idea that a healthy Worthy is running a 4.5 or higher is absurd. I expect he will pretty easily go under 4.4. 

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Had Enough

Had Enough 2108

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It was reported he didn’t want to switch. He was a starting CB. Not to say he was a lock down corner but top flight ones are hard to come by. We didn’t have an immediate replacement at CB.

You did get a glimpse at CB without RW at OU. Not to say Watts makes the play, but both other options missed key tackles.

There’s no guarantee that such a conversion works. And presumably RW should convert because he’s not fast enough/cover skills aren’t great. So the theory is in part convert him to S so he can get some man coverage. That’d likely be in the slot, which could in fact be more difficult than his existing role.

Safety and CB are different skill sets. There’s not really anything Watts has shown to say he’s a S. I get it. He does have the potential, but the best converts are playmakers that have aged and lost some juice. He has not shown that playmaking ability. Where is this anticipation/breaking on the ball ability? I’m not sure it’s the exact reason but we have stopped blitzing him maybe because he couldnt finish the play.

I hope he makes it. Maybe it’s safety. Maybe it’s cover 2 corner if that even exists in today’s NFL. But for us, it likely would be like Swoopes to TE would have been. Minimal impact.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 65243

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35 minutes ago, pyrofiend said:

Christian Jones has surprisingly good measurables. Of the Senior Bowl offensive linemen he has the 4th longest arms (34 7/8") and the 2nd longest wingspan. The NFL looks for 34+ inch arms on tackles, so I think he becomes our 8th drafted player this year.
 

I'll actually be surprised if Texas doesn't wind up with 8, but I don't think 9-10 is completely out of the question. Surprising? Sure.

Sweat, Murphy, Worthy, Mitchell, Sanders, Brooks, Ford - that's 7. 

Jones seems probable given his measurables and improvement over the years - that's 8.

Whittington received a late round grade last year and was healthy again all year. There's an outside shot he's a 7th rounder.

Watts could entice someone as a project late, whether for Safety or a physical CB need. 

Keilan Robinson seems highly unlikely, but what the hell, he's a witch on special teams will certainly post a terrific 40 time.

One or two guys in the 7th make this a truly amazing draft class.

Looking at next year, the numbers probably look pretty similar. Collins, Ewers, Bond, Blue, Banks, Sorrell, Mukuba, Brooks, Barron, doesn't take much from that group to get to 6-8. A couple of other risers like Niblack and Golden or Cam Williams and you're easily there. That's Ohio State/Michigan/Bama/Georgia multiyear levels of NFL production. Will be pretty terrific to watch.

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 41646

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I'll actually be surprised if Texas doesn't wind up with 8, but I don't think 9-10 is completely out of the question. Surprising? Sure.

Sweat, Murphy, Worthy, Mitchell, Sanders, Brooks, Ford - that's 7. 

Jones seems probable given his measurables and improvement over the years - that's 8.

Whittington received a late round grade last year and was healthy again all year. There's an outside shot he's a 7th rounder.

Watts could entice someone as a project late, whether for Safety or a physical CB need. 

Keilan Robinson seems highly unlikely, but what the hell, he's a witch on special teams will certainly post a terrific 40 time.

One or two guys in the 7th make this a truly amazing draft class.

Looking at next year, the numbers probably look pretty similar. Collins, Ewers, Bond, Blue, Banks, Sorrell, Mukuba, Brooks, Barron, doesn't take much from that group to get to 6-8. A couple of other risers like Niblack and Golden or Cam Williams and you're easily there. That's Ohio State/Michigan/Bama/Georgia multiyear levels of NFL production. Will be pretty terrific to watch.

Charles Power's scoffs at this thought.

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Fud

Fud 9696

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5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Jones seems probable given his measurables and improvement over the years - that's 8.

 

I think you can bump him up to a lock to get drafted 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I'll actually be surprised if Texas doesn't wind up with 8, but I don't think 9-10 is completely out of the question. Surprising? Sure.

Sweat, Murphy, Worthy, Mitchell, Sanders, Brooks, Ford - that's 7. 

Jones seems probable given his measurables and improvement over the years - that's 8.

Whittington received a late round grade last year and was healthy again all year. There's an outside shot he's a 7th rounder.

Watts could entice someone as a project late, whether for Safety or a physical CB need. 

Keilan Robinson seems highly unlikely, but what the hell, he's a witch on special teams will certainly post a terrific 40 time.

One or two guys in the 7th make this a truly amazing draft class.

Looking at next year, the numbers probably look pretty similar. Collins, Ewers, Bond, Blue, Banks, Sorrell, Mukuba, Brooks, Barron, doesn't take much from that group to get to 6-8. A couple of other risers like Niblack and Golden or Cam Williams and you're easily there. That's Ohio State/Michigan/Bama/Georgia multiyear levels of NFL production. Will be pretty terrific to watch.

I was putting the over under at 10.5 if Ewers, Alfred Collins and Barron all left when all were clearly players getting drafted- and I was betting the over.  

With those 3 guys staying that moves the O/U to 7.5. I will stick with the over.  Jones is damn near a lock in my mind.  Give me 1 more from amongst the group of Whittington, Watts and Robinson to make 9. That would be pretty cool.  

I will go for 11 in the 2025 draft after 9 in this one- with Quinn and Banks both going in the top 10 overall.  If we go to the playoffs again and then go double digits with 2 top 10 picks and our QB went to the Heisman?  It will be game on boys and everybody will have to acknowledge we are back- and this things should be on go for the next decade.  

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11939

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Posted (edited)

Slow day at work, so decided to make my own way-to-early Mock Draft version 1.0.  

I threw in a few potential trades just for kicks.

  1. Bears - Caleb Williams QB USC
  2. Commanders - Joe Alt OT Notre Dame
  3. Patriots - Drake Maye QB UNC
  4. Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr. WR tOSU
  5. Falcons (Trade with Chargers) - Dallas Turner Edge 'Bama
  6. Giants - Rome Odunze WR Washington
  7. Titans - Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Penn State
  8. Chargers (Trade with Falcons) - Terrion Arnold CB 'Bama
  9. Bears - Jer'Zhan Newton DT Illinois
  10. Jets - Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State
  11. Vikings - Nate Wiggins CB Clemson
  12. Broncos - Jayden Daniels QB LSU
  13. Raiders - Jared Verse Edge FSU
  14. Saints - Malik Nabers WR LSU
  15. Dolphins (Trade with Colts) - Brock Bowers TE Georgia
  16. Seahawks - Leonard Taylor III DT Miami
  17. Jaguars - Byron Murphy II DT TEXAS! - Jax needs a IDL with pass rush skills
  18. Bengals - Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU
  19. Rams - JC Latham OT 'Bama
  20. Steelers - Troy Fautanu OPT Washington
  21. Colts (Trade with Miami) - Amarius Mims OT Georgia
  22. Eagles - Cooper DeJean DB Iowa
  23. Texans - Laiatu Latu Edge UCLA
  24. Buccaneers (Trade with Dallas) - Adonai Mitchell WR TEXAS! - Bucs need a replacement for Mike Evans
  25. Packers - Tyler Guyton OT BlowU
  26. Lions (from Dallas via TB) - Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama
  27. Cardinals - Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia
  28. Bills - Ennis Rakestraw Jr. CB Missouri
  29. Cowboys (From Detroit) - Edgerrin Cooper LB aggy - Sorry guys, I know it's a reach, but Dallas needs a LB and Jerry's gonna Jerry
  30. Ravens - Tony Franklin WR Oregon
  31. 49ers - Chop Robinson Edge Penn State
  32. Chiefs - Xavier Worthy WR TEXAS! - KC needs another WR and they love speed...Xavier certainly fits the bill
     

3 Horns in the 1st might seem aggressive, but it's certainly possible.

Edited by DixonHur
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MuellerHorn

MuellerHorn 4605

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5 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I'll actually be surprised if Texas doesn't wind up with 8, but I don't think 9-10 is completely out of the question. Surprising? Sure.

Looking at next year, the numbers probably look pretty similar. Collins, Ewers, Bond, Blue, Banks, Sorrell, Mukuba, Brooks, Barron, doesn't take much from that group to get to 6-8. A couple of other risers like Niblack and Golden or Cam Williams and you're easily there. That's Ohio State/Michigan/Bama/Georgia multiyear levels of NFL production. Will be pretty terrific to watch.

At which point, hopefully, On3 will stop being idiots and dropping Texas recruit rankings based on historical events which are completely irrelevant to present day facts.

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