Don’t fuck around, go win the Big 12

[dec3169 503]

7 hours ago, ramirezut said:

ND barely beat fucking Duke who is Mizzou with higher academic standards. Don’t hold your breath for the domers.

I'm more worried about FL St, Oregon, Washington, USC.  They play more ranked teams and should end up with a better SOS.  B12 will hurt us in that respect.

[perfectchaos007 6675]

59 minutes ago, dec3169 said:

I'm more worried about FL St, Oregon, Washington, USC.  They play more ranked teams and should end up with a better SOS.  B12 will hurt us in that respect.

One of my pet peeves are those who say "who cares what other teams do. Just win." Yes, obviously in an ideal world Texas would finish the season 13-0 and be the #1 seed in the playoffs. That hasn't been realistic for us since 2009 so yes it does matter how our current conference and OOC opponents do this season. If we want to even entertain the idea  of sneaking into the playoffs, we need Alabama to keep winning, as they will prop up our SoS more than any of our Big12 opponents. Lots of scenarios could happen, but if we win the Big12 and Alabama wins the SEC, that H2H could be crucial in deciding which 1 loss team gets selected. There are more undefeated teams at this point of the year than in previous years, but the odds of 4 undefeated P5 teams making the playoff is still slim to none. Theres a good chance we'll have 2 or 3 undefeated teams, and Texas needs some help to be the best 1 loss team available on selection day.

First things first, we currently don't control our own destiny to jerry world thanks to the stupid 14 team 9 conference game schedule. Lets take care of business the rest of the way and hope WVU takes a loss or two and then we can get our revenge on OU in December. 

[troph 24870]

1 hour ago, dec3169 said:

I'm more worried about FL St, Oregon, Washington, USC.  They play more ranked teams and should end up with a better SOS.  B12 will hurt us in that respect.

Only one of Oregon, Washington and USC can be undefeated. 
 

only way a Texas one loss big 12 champ is left out is if UGA/big 10/FSU/pac 12 are all undefeated.

[troph 24870]

Kansas and Wyoming are also only one loss teams. 

[ousux 5597]

If we lose to BYU or K State I won’t be shocked at all. 10-2 feels right of this team.  

Mizzery beat K-state and a fuckawful piggy beat BYU. If we can't get it done with those two then we deserve our usual spot in San Antonio versus whichever Pac 2 team gets an invite.

[Michael Knight 12988]

 

[Pancho 44860]

9 minutes ago, ousux said:

9 hours ago, The Ace of Aces said:

If we lose to BYU or K State I won’t be shocked at all. 10-2 feels right of this team.  

Mizzery beat K-state and a fuckawful piggy beat BYU. If we can't get it done with those two then we deserve our usual spot in San Antonio versus whichever Pac 2 team gets an invite.

BYU beat Arkansas 

[ousux 5597]

BYU beat Arkansas 

Wait, you're right..pig is worse than I thought. Doesn't matter, what I said still stands.

Edit- was thinking of Kansas

[Helobious 9462]

8 hours ago, troph said:

I bet OU is 5 behind FSU. Texas is 9 and Bama is 10.  Too many P5 undefeateds still.  But at least 3-4 will lose due to process of elimination (playing each other etc). So keep winning late season Texas is 5-6 at worst.
 

Beat OU in the Big 12 championship and tOSU and Michigan eliminate each other and Texas is 3-4. Both USC and FSU going undefeated - along with UGA and Big 10 champ - is the wild card. 

USC needed 3 OT’s to beat Arizona tonight. They’re not going undefeated. I can’t believe you’re even considering that.

[troph 24870]

2 hours ago, Helobious said:

USC needed 3 OT’s to beat Arizona tonight. They’re not going undefeated. I can’t believe you’re even considering that.

I wrote that before the AZ game started. One of Washington, Oregon or USC could go undefeated. Those three are interchangeable. 
 

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10311]

7 hours ago, troph said:

Only one of Oregon, Washington and USC can be undefeated. 
 

only way a Texas one loss big 12 champ is left out is if UGA/big 10/FSU/pac 12 are all undefeated.

This. Texas has to win out obviously or nothing matters, but likely then facing undefeated and then top 3 team in conf champ game. Beating them in rematch gives most recent victory, conf championship and beating top 3 team as last game.... what member is leaving that team out?  Just win.

Edited October 8, 2023 by MonkeyDoughnut

[MirrOlure 14795]

What happens if we’re tied for 2nd place with WVU at 1 loss each?

[mdmost 43004]

9 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

What happens if we’re tied for 2nd place with WVU at 1 loss each?

Big 12 Tiebreaker rules

Two teams tied

1. If two teams are tied for first place, both teams will participate in the championship game and the winner of the head-to-head will be the No. 1 seed. If there is not a tie for first place, but two teams are tied for second place, the two-team tiebreaker policy will apply, and the winner will be the No. 2 seed and visiting team. If no game is played between the two tied teams or that game ends in a tie, the following tie-breaking procedures shall be applied:
2. Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. Note: When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
3. Win percentage against all common conference opponents.
4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (ie, strength of conference schedule).
5. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: 1. Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually. 2. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included.
6. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
7. Coin toss

Three (or more) team-Ties

In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tiebreaker will repeat the multiple-team tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.

1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in games among the tied teams). If not, every tied team has played each other, go to step 2.
2. Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. Note: When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
3. Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie).
4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (ie, strength of conference schedule).
5. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: 1. Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually. 2. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included.
6. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
7. Coin toss

[Kwix 2190]

3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Big 12 Tiebreaker rules

Two teams tied

1. If two teams are tied for first place, both teams will participate in the championship game and the winner of the head-to-head will be the No. 1 seed. If there is not a tie for first place, but two teams are tied for second place, the two-team tiebreaker policy will apply, and the winner will be the No. 2 seed and visiting team. If no game is played between the two tied teams or that game ends in a tie, the following tie-breaking procedures shall be applied:
2. Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. Note: When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
3. Win percentage against all common conference opponents.
4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (ie, strength of conference schedule).
5. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: 1. Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually. 2. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included.
6. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
7. Coin toss

Three (or more) team-Ties

In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tiebreaker will repeat the multiple-team tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.

1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in games among the tied teams). If not, every tied team has played each other, go to step 2.
2. Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. Note: When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
3. Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie).
4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (ie, strength of conference schedule).
5. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: 1. Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually. 2. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included.
6. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
7. Coin toss

So it looks like it would come down to #4 in the event of 1 loss Texas and WV. So basically how our conference opponents did in conference play. 

[MirrOlure 14795]

TLDR…we’ll get fucked

[Kwix 2190]

Quick look at the conference schedules,

Texas plays:
Kansas  (2-1)
KSU  (1-1)
ISU  (2-1)

WV plays:
OSU  (1-1)
UCF  (0-3)
Cinci  (0-2)

 

So we need KU, KSU, and ISU to have better conference records than OSU, USF, and Cinci.  I feel pretty good about how that will play out.

[mdmost 43004]

This is way too early to worry about but WVU has Tech, TCU, OU, Houston, BYU, and Baylor as shared opponents. They play UCF, Cincinnati, and oSu which we don't play. We have Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State as non-shared opponents. UCF and Cincy are terrible. Kansas might save our asses. 

[MirrOlure 14795]

That sounds better. I was afraid Baylor would be our poison

[troph 24870]

24 minutes ago, mdmost said:

This is way too early to worry about but WVU has Tech, TCU, OU, Houston, BYU, and Baylor as shared opponents. They play UCF, Cincinnati, and oSu which we don't play. We have Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State as non-shared opponents. UCF and Cincy are terrible. Kansas might save our asses. 

Kansas can beat OU but our best route to what we want is a rematch. If kanas does not beat OU they are at least two losses. WVA will lose to OU and so one more loss and we are probably alone in second if we take care of business.

is this program back? Next 5-6 weeks will tell us. We could have known yesterday now we have to see what happens and if we slip fml but if we hold firm and walk into Arlington as a 1 loss top 6 team fuck yeah.  I will be supremely disappointed if Texas drops another game before then.  

[dcar00 14275]

12 minutes ago, troph said:

Kansas can beat OU but our best route to what we want is a rematch. If kanas does not beat OU they are at least two losses. WVA will lose to OU and so one more loss and we are probably alone in second if we take care of business.

is this program back? Next 5-6 weeks will tell us. We could have known yesterday now we have to see what happens and if we slip fml but if we hold firm and walk into Arlington as a 1 loss top 6 team fuck yeah.  I will be supremely disappointed if Texas drops another game before then.  

Good post but prepare thy anus.

[utexas8 1457]

So what happens if Texas OU and West Virginia all have one loss. Who goes on?

[mdmost 43004]

2 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

So what happens if Texas OU and West Virginia all have one loss. Who goes on?

I believe it would be OU goes over us due to head to head. WVU goes over us due to their beating OU in your scenario as they have the higher shared opponent record (1-0 over OU were we're 0-1 against OU). But who knows since it's no longer round robin. 

[utexas8 1457]

I believe it would be OU goes over us due to head to head. WVU goes over us due to their beating OU in your scenario as they have the higher shared opponent record (1-0 over OU were we're 0-1 against OU). But who knows since it's no longer round robin. 

West Virginias remaining schedule is trash. Are they actually good?

[troph 24870]

12 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Good post but prepare thy anus.

Butt sex is fun sex 🤷‍♀️ 

[Hook1997 5390]

Win out and OU wins out and beat them in the Big 12 championship game and they are going to the playoffs I’d bet.  Most teams infront of us in the rankings will lose a game or two before it’s over and Texas will have wins over two top ten teams.  

Edited October 8, 2023 by Hook1997

[utexas8 1457]

[ChickenNuggets 1631]

If OU wins out in conference play it seems regarded to have them play an additional "championship" game to declare themselves champion, especially if the team in that game is one they already beat...

BIG 12 isn't sending two teams to the playoffs.. if OU wins out, they're the ones going, regardless of whether they get beat in the "championship" game. 

Am I missing something?

[The_Great_Hornsby 3253]

4 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

If OU wins out in conference play it seems regarded to have them play an additional "championship" game to declare themselves champion, especially if the team in that game is one they already beat...

BIG 12 isn't sending two teams to the playoffs.. if OU wins out, they're the ones going, regardless of whether they get beat in the "championship" game. 

Am I missing something?

Yes. If Texas beats Oklahoma in the championship game and they both have 1 loss to each other. Texas and OU would both have identical resumes, EXCEPT Texas would be big 12 champion and own a win over Bama. Advantage Texas. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by The_Great_Hornsby

[ChickenNuggets 1631]

Edit: I think I'm just really disgruntled this morning.... 

My point is, OU beat Texas in regular conference play. Seems stupid to make them play Texas again in the conference championship and doubly stupid for a loss in the conference championship to result in Texas moving forward.

I  know what you're saying, but I just think it's stupid...

As stupid as in '08 when Texas beats OU, OU beats Tech, and Tech beats Texas.. with OU moving on to the MNC because of a better BCS score over Texas, despite their loss to Texas. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by ChickenNuggets

[mdmost 43004]

16 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

Edit: I think I'm just really disgruntled this morning.... 

My point is, OU beat Texas in regular conference play. Seems stupid to make them play Texas again in the conference championship and doubly stupid for a loss in the conference championship to result in Texas moving forward.

I  know what you're saying, but I just think it's stupid...

As stupid as in '08 when Texas beats OU, OU beats Tech, and Tech beats Texas.. with OU moving on to the MNC because of a better BCS score over Texas, despite their loss to Texas. 

Yes but everyone is going to that model of the top two teams playing each other. This is the last year the Big 10 has the split division winners playing for the title. Going forward, everyone will be the top 2 based on conference win/loss. So there will be repeats. The Big 10 might be Michigan/tOSU rematches going into perpetuity. 

[TXpride 549]

43 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

Edit: I think I'm just really disgruntled this morning.... 

My point is, OU beat Texas in regular conference play. Seems stupid to make them play Texas again in the conference championship and doubly stupid for a loss in the conference championship to result in Texas moving forward.

I  know what you're saying, but I just think it's stupid...

As stupid as in '08 when Texas beats OU, OU beats Tech, and Tech beats Texas.. with OU moving on to the MNC because of a better BCS score over Texas, despite their loss to Texas. 

They can eat a dick. We still owe them from 08.

[Hermanator 7115]

The more I think about it the more it pisses me off both Sark and PK coached scared on the last 2 drives. Sark on 3rd and 9/4th and 3 by not reading the situation properly and realizing they have several backup DBs in and Ewers has owned them in the 2nd half going something like 19 for his last 20 at that point. 

And PK for doing the same thing and not reading the game situation properly and realizing after the first drive of the 3rd Q his defense had them figured out and had shut them down by being more aggressive up front and in press coverage. Then on the last drive he shifts to deep safe defense giving 5 to 10 yd cushions for them to just easily take 10-20 yds per play down the field. 

If you're going to lose, if you're going to eventually get fired... at least do it being aggressive and pushing for wins and not coaching scared. And for fuck sakes learn to read the game as it's playing out and coach to your advantages, and especially on offense where the way games are officiated gives a clear advantage over defenses. 

[ChickenNuggets 1631]

2 hours ago, TXpride said:

They can eat a dick. We still owe them from 08.

I can get behind that. 

[msucolt45 4063]

Just like 2018, but reversed. Hate to say it, but we need OU sucks to win out the rest of their season, as well as us. The it’ll be two top 10 teams playing in Dallas for the CFP.

Hook’em!!!

[sidis 9832]

4 hours ago, ChickenNuggets said:

Edit: I think I'm just really disgruntled this morning.... 

My point is, OU beat Texas in regular conference play. Seems stupid to make them play Texas again in the conference championship and doubly stupid for a loss in the conference championship to result in Texas moving forward.

I  know what you're saying, but I just think it's stupid...

As stupid as in '08 when Texas beats OU, OU beats Tech, and Tech beats Texas.. with OU moving on to the MNC because of a better BCS score over Texas, despite their loss to Texas. 

Were you alive in 2018?

[troph 24870]

6 hours ago, ChickenNuggets said:

If OU wins out in conference play it seems regarded to have them play an additional "championship" game to declare themselves champion, especially if the team in that game is one they already beat...

BIG 12 isn't sending two teams to the playoffs.. if OU wins out, they're the ones going, regardless of whether they get beat in the "championship" game. 

Am I missing something?

Are you missing something? Other than some gray matter this afternoon? nah. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by troph

[troph 24870]

4 hours ago, Hermanator said:

The more I think about it the more it pisses me off both Sark and PK coached scared on the last 2 drives. Sark on 3rd and 9/4th and 3 by not reading the situation properly and realizing they have several backup DBs in and Ewers has owned them in the 2nd half going something like 19 for his last 20 at that point. 

And PK for doing the same thing and not reading the game situation properly and realizing after the first drive of the 3rd Q his defense had them figured out and had shut them down by being more aggressive up front and in press coverage. Then on the last drive he shifts to deep safe defense giving 5 to 10 yd cushions for them to just easily take 10-20 yds per play down the field. 

If you're going to lose, if you're going to eventually get fired... at least do it being aggressive and pushing for wins and not coaching scared. And for fuck sakes learn to read the game as it's playing out and coach to your advantages, and especially on offense where the way games are officiated gives a clear advantage over defenses. 

Yes on PK (though he got pressure several times on that last drive and DG had a heart wrenching scramble and well the refs called PI) but playing for the lead after a sack and one 5 yard gain guarantees the lead isn’t a pussy move. The D had them stopped 3-4 times in a row. It wasn’t a bad decision to make sure after a sack you got the points. It just wasn’t.

[troph 24870]

#9 in the AP, schedule sets up nicely down the stretch. everything we want is still in front of us. Let’s take care of business.

[Tex Long 4402]

1 hour ago, troph said:

Yes on PK (though he got pressure several times on that last drive and DG had a heart wrenching scramble and well the refs called PI) but playing for the lead after a sack and one 5 yard gain guarantees the lead isn’t a pussy move. The D had them stopped 3-4 times in a row. It wasn’t a bad decision to make sure after a sack you got the points. It just wasn’t.

About PK going "prevent". This is where the HC has to stop that shit as soon as he knows it's happening. "God damn it, PK, don't do this shit, do what you've been doing the last four possessions!" I mean, if he's not too busy being OC.

[TreatyOak 16366]

@immamac

Edited October 8, 2023 by TreatyOak

[Hank_Hill 18883]

Puts things in perspective nicely if we can manage not to fuck it up again. That said, Oregon/Washington/USC will have very strong resumes 

[JGrayDBU 339]

The only problem with the idea of us going unbeaten the rest of the way is the Big 12 refs, and possibly injuries.

 

The Big12 refs will know that we have to win every game, so they will push it, no doubt.  The reality is we need to win every game by two TDs, so we can eliminate the refs from the equation.  

 

 

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652]

3 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

Puts things in perspective nicely if we can manage not to fuck it up again. That said, Oregon/Washington/USC will have very strong resumes 

seriously, what had sark done to make you think we can win out?    we play down to our competition every other game 

[Hank_Hill 18883]

2 minutes ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

seriously, what had sark done to make you think we can win out?    we play down to our competition every other game 

Well, we’re 5-1 and have “played down” to two big 12 opponents that we’ve beat by 30 points each. We absolutely can win out. Is it the most likely scenario? Anybodys guess.

[JGrayDBU 339]

we're losing one more, and OU is losing one more, maybe 2.  

[CoachTex 2628]

[RC Horn 138]

31 minutes ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

seriously, what had sark done to make you think we can win out?    we play down to our competition every other game 

Because we have more depth and talent on this team than previous years. I do not see the team playing down to its competition for the remaining games. Of course the Big XII refs may have a say.

[troph 24870]

3 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

Puts things in perspective nicely if we can manage not to fuck it up again. That said, Oregon/Washington/USC will have very strong resumes 

100% this though USC should be on the list too and they have plenty in front of them as well. Texas has to win out but it’s all still there to take.

[gmr548 16580]

If OU wins out in conference play it seems regarded to have them play an additional "championship" game to declare themselves champion, especially if the team in that game is one they already beat...
BIG 12 isn't sending two teams to the playoffs.. if OU wins out, they're the ones going, regardless of whether they get beat in the "championship" game. 
Am I missing something?

Edit: I think I'm just really disgruntled this morning.... 
My point is, OU beat Texas in regular conference play. Seems stupid to make them play Texas again in the conference championship and doubly stupid for a loss in the conference championship to result in Texas moving forward.
I  know what you're saying, but I just think it's stupid...
As stupid as in '08 when Texas beats OU, OU beats Tech, and Tech beats Texas.. with OU moving on to the MNC because of a better BCS score over Texas, despite their loss to Texas. 

It’s less stupid than it was when the Big 12 was a round robin and the first seed was playing a second seed it had finished outright ahead of. For example, despite us wining the RRS in 2018, it was stupid an 8-1 OU team had to play a 7-2 Texas team in the CCG after playing the same schedule. This year there is at least the element of incongruous conference schedules. I do agree a Big 12 title by virtue of beating an OU team with a similar or better league record in a rematch would feel kind of hollow after yesterday but thems the rules, and if it ruins their season all the better.

Just like 2018, but reversed. Hate to say it, but we need OU sucks to win out the rest of their season, as well as us. The it’ll be two top 10 teams playing in Dallas for the CFP.

Hook’em!!!

Ew. No. This is absurd. I hope they lose the rest of the games they play. If it’s a playoff thing a 12-1 Texas is overwhelmingly likely to get a nod regardless.

Texas is inconsistent enough that I expect them to lose one or two more anyway - though winning out wouldn’t shock me. They’ll be big favorites the rest of the way and for good reason. OU exposed Texas to a degree but for the most part the rest of the conference isn’t equipped to replicate without a huge amount of help from Texas itself. 11-1 and a rematch should be the goal obviously but 7-2 in conference probably gets you in the CCG.

I do think OU drops at least one league game. That is not a juggernaut.

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

12 hours ago, ChickenNuggets said:

If OU wins out in conference play it seems regarded to have them play an additional "championship" game to declare themselves champion, especially if the team in that game is one they already beat...

BIG 12 isn't sending two teams to the playoffs.. if OU wins out, they're the ones going, regardless of whether they get beat in the "championship" game. 

Am I missing something?

Didn’t UGA and Bama both go to the playoffs a few years back?     One went with one loss due to H2H in the SEC championship.  I mean it’s possible the Rig 12 could send two.     If you look at who is ahead of us in the poll today the only two teams I think have a realistic shot at being undefeated at the end of the season is FSU and UGA.     Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State still have to play each other .  Ditto for USC, Oregon, and Washington.    They all could have a circular firing squad and lose a game.