Israel-Hamas war thread

[Brisketexan 105,041]

Suggested on the Global Spring thread....this probably needs its own thread.  It's a declared war, this ain't just one of those periodic flare-ups of tension and violence.  Keep it DT: posts of news, events, public statements, etc.  Discussions of how this is due to the meddling British bastards, or petulant muslims mad they lost at the Battle of Vienna, should generally go to the CR.

Qatar purportedly trying to negotiate regarding hostages:

Quote

Mediators from Qatar have been in contact with Hamas officials to try to negotiate the release of Israeli women and children seized by the militant group and taken into Gaza, the Reuters news agency reports.

A source briefed on the talks told Reuters that the Qataris proposed the Israelis be exchanged for 36 Palestinian women and children detained in Israel.

The source said the talks were being conducted in co-ordination with the US.

Neither Israel nor Hamas have directly commented on the reports.

 

[Patricio Swayze 17,058]

I would love to be an Arabic speaking fly on the wall hanging out in the client offices (perhaps a belligerent, and definitely supporters of Hamas).

So who is running this simulation and why are they borrowing themes from the past simulations?

[Brisketexan 105,041]

Just now, Patricio Swayze said:

So who is running this simulation and why are they borrowing themes from the past simulations?

Damned writer's strike.

[Parliament 14,227]

Can we request a title change to, "The Perpetual Middle East Quagmire Thread: Israel."  Sadly, I think it fits.

[Brisketexan 105,041]

Just now, Parliament said:

Can we request a title change to, "The Perpetual Middle East Quagmire Thread: Israel."  Sadly, I think it fits.

Well, we've got that one in the CR, and it fits there.  This is more about war news and tracking events, much like the Ukraine thread here has done really well. I really like the aggregation of information there, and would love to be able to follow a similar aggregation here.

[Eastwood 4,394]

Israel could glass the Gaza Strip without ever putting a boot on the ground and Hamas’ anti-air isn’t very effective, if it even exists. These air strikes seem very limited, so far. Makes me think Israel is softening them up and going to send in ground forces to completely clean, sweep, and level that place. 

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

Damn this is going to get ugly. Could end up looking like Grozny. 

 

[Royalfan5 2,353]

So if the IDF pushes hard into Gaza, does the north and/or West Bank pop off significantly while they are pre-occupied? Also since every one is talking about Israel striking Iran, that a pretty good haul for the planes they have at their disposal right? 

[YGIFS 19,449]

^

Which is why the Ford Carrier Group is en route now.  And they're going to be leaving a lot of fixed-wing aircraft off deck and off ship to be flown to Israel for "maintenance"  

[statsman 5,449]

I’m curious - do we have “lessons learned” from the hostage crisis of 45 years ago? What are they?

[Newdoc 3,439]

The news has been all over Israel for getting “surprised” by the scale of this attack but there is almost no other country in the world that is as prepared for this more than Israel. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,412]

Israel has a few F35s, which have around a 1,000 NM range without aerial refueling. Probably their best option is a direct route over Syria and Iraq. It's that return trip that could get spicy. 

Edit: Meant to quote @Royalfan5 here. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Pescado_Rojo

[Eastwood 4,394]

2 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

So if the IDF pushes hard into Gaza, does the north and/or West Bank pop off significantly while they are pre-occupied? Also since every one is talking about Israel striking Iran, that a pretty good haul for the planes they have at their disposal right? 

It’s not the distance, it’s the airspace they have to cross to get there. The Arab nations in between might not be openly hostile to Israel, at least not right now, but their leadership would be under immense pressure if they let Israel cross the airspace of a majority Muslim nation to attack another Muslim nation. 
 

If Israel did, it would be with a FAFO declaration putting everyone on notice that whoever shoots them down will get some, too. Which is why this is so dangerous. A cold religious war just went hot. Predictable and logical behavior are not on the table. 

[MisterP 127]

10 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Israel could glass the Gaza Strip without ever putting a boot on the ground and Hamas’ anti-air isn’t very effective, if it even exists. These air strikes seem very limited, so far. Makes me think Israel is softening them up and going to send in ground forces to completely clean, sweep, and level that place. 

Absolutely here for this

[Patricio Swayze 17,058]

From cnn re possible action along Israel’s northern border:

“Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a brief statement Monday that its helicopters were striking in Lebanese territory after a "number of armed suspects" who "infiltrated" Israel from Lebanon were killed. Lebanon borders Israel to the north.”

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

so what's the plan regarding cutting off food, water and electricity to 2 million people?

[bolverk 29,644]

 

 

[Wally Fairway 5,539]

3 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

so what's the plan regarding cutting off food, water and electricity to 2 million people?

pretty sure the plan is to do, continue it for an indefinite period of time, and to squeeze as hard as they can looking for hostage release. This is how the Israelis negotiate hostage release.

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

11 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Israel has a few F35s, which have around a 1,000 NM range without aerial refueling. Probably their best option is a direct route over Syria and Iraq. It's that return trip that could get spicy. 

Edit: Meant to quote @Royalfan5 here. 

We have refueling capability in UAE and in Qatar. I am sure we might lend a hand for that. 

Another interesting tidbit. On a few of the islands off the UAE Israel, with Emirati cooperation, have airfields that were built in the 1980's as Iran started to threaten the gulf states. Sunni-Shia still is a thing. 

[ConferenceRoom 6,141]

Fuck this.

Quote

Yoni Asher’s nightmare began early on Saturday morning during a phone call with his wife, Doron Asher Katz.

Whispering down the phone line, Ms. Asher Katz, 34, said that she, her mother, and their two small daughters were trapped inside her mother’s safe room in a village near the Gaza border.

“She told me, ‘There are terrorists inside the house,’” Mr. Asher said in an interview.

Then came worse news: Ms. Asher Katz’s mother’s life partner, Gadi Moses, had left the safe room to reason with the intruders.

“She said they left — and they took him with them,” Mr. Asher said.

Mr. Asher, 37, hoped that his spouse and children were safe, at least. But then the phone lines went dead.

It was the last time Mr. Asher heard from his wife.

Tracking her phone remotely, he saw that the device was taken on Saturday to Khan Younis, a city in southern Gaza, suggesting that she, too, had been kidnapped.

Then a video circulated on social media of abducted Israelis being driven through the territory, bundled into the back of a pickup truck. In the video, a gunman attempts to spread a kind of blindfold over a woman’s head.

Mr. Asher recognized the woman. It was Doron.

He said his daughters, Raz and Aviv, 5 and 3, and his mother-in-law, Efrat Katz, 67, were squashed alongside her.

They are now among an estimated 150 hostages inside Gaza, according to the Israeli authorities, most of them captured from small Israeli border towns on Saturday morning.

His family intended to return home to central Israel on Saturday evening, after a short visit to their grandmother’s village. Instead, it isn’t clear when, or if, he’ll see them again.

“I can’t sleep — I’m living outside my own body,” Mr. Asher said.

“I have two little babies, two little girls,” he added. “These little babies should not be held or kept by terrorists.”

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

5 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

pretty sure the plan is to do, continue it for an indefinite period of time, and to squeeze as hard as they can looking for hostage release. This is how the Israelis negotiate hostage release.

and if that doesn't work, they flip the switch and give them food, water and electricity?

[Parliament 14,227]

Certainly Hamas is following the Geneva Convention rules on the treatment of POW's.

[bolverk 29,644]

Not sure if previous reports that Egypt had sent warnings are true. Once things settle down, I'm sure that's going to be a contentious allegation in Israel.

 

[Captainant 27,619]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Not sure if previous reports that Egypt had sent warnings are true. Once things settle down, I'm sure that's going to be a contentious allegation in Israel.

 

I've read early commentary calling this "Israel's Pearl Harbor" - considering how much of an intelligence blunder this appears to be, that's a pretty apt name

[Brisketexan 105,041]

So, how long does Bibi's government last?  Sure, there's galvanization now in the initial stages of the war.  But this was a massive failure by the current Israeli government, which does a great job of talking tough, but did a lousy job of actually being prepared.  That will be an "interesting" process to watch in the coming months.  @Ghost of LL doesn't think the government will last the year.  I think it will, because this war will still be hot as hell then, and people wont want to bring the government down at that point.

[Wally Fairway 5,539]

3 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

and if that doesn't work, they flip the switch and give them food, water and electricity?

certainly not - they will starve 2,000,000 to get a few 100 back; flipping the switch will only encourage the militants

I believe after this incursion the government, and many citizens, will believe there is no point in being a dove and offering an olive branch

[ztejas 43,411]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

I've read early commentary calling this "Israel's Pearl Harbor" - considering how much of an intelligence blunder this appears to be, that's a pretty apt name

Why go back to Pearl Harbor when you have 9/11 right there...

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,792]

Hamas? 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

certainly not - they will starve 2,000,000 to get a few 100 back; flipping the switch will only encourage the militants

I believe after this incursion the government, and many citizens, will believe there is no point in being a dove and offering an olive branch

Can they really do that? That's genocide.

[MisterP 127]

3 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Why go back to Pearl Harbor when you have 9/11 right there...

I like the PH comparison more. Maybe they ignored the intel knowing that it would galvanize the Israeli's and the global politics to finally let them go in there and wipe Gaza off the face of the Earth? Unless you are into conspiracy theories, 9/11 doesnt equate to that....In this situation, it is much more like PH.

Edited October 9, 2023 by MisterP

[Macklemore 2,876]

Hamas supporters celebrating in Dallas earlier today.

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Macklemore

[Brisketexan 105,041]

Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Can they really do that? That's genocide.

I think that's gonna be the plan to start with, at least.  So, they definitely CAN do it.  The question is how long they'll do it, and what the ultimate end-game is.

[Wally Fairway 5,539]

Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Can they really do that? That's genocide.

Hopefully not - but turn the question, can Hamas really hold onto a few hostages and allow that to happen to the Palestinians?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think that's gonna be the plan to start with, at least.  So, they definitely CAN do it.  The question is how long they'll do it, and what the ultimate end-game is.

I just don't see how a state that was created in response to the genocide of Jews can turn around and starve 2 million people to death. 

Also, I don't think Israel can do much of anything without US approval. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

4 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Hopefully not - but turn the question, can Hamas really hold onto a few hostages and allow that to happen to the Palestinians?

I tend to think their collective mindsight is 'what's the point of living if we can't live freely'. You pose a good question, and I suppose we're about to find out, but damn this is bad.

[MissingInAction 25,002]

Be careful what you click on Twitter.

Some fucked up videos out there.

2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I just don't see how a state that was created in response to the genocide of Jews can turn around and starve 2 million people to death. 

Also, I don't think Israel can do much of anything without US approval. 

Dude. Israel DGAF.

[bolverk 29,644]

3 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Be careful what you click on Twitter.

Some fucked up videos out there.

Yep. And TONS of misinfo.

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

13 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Hamas supporters celebrating in Dallas earlier today.

 

West Campus is going to be interesting. 

[Macklemore 2,876]

12 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Can they really do that? That's genocide.

Collective punishment is generally a no-no but if anyone has earned its use it’s the Gaza Palestinians. I think the Israeli government is licking its chops to show no mercy to teach them a lesson.

[bolverk 29,644]

Persian Gulf is taking sides.

 

US coaxing China to apply pressure on Iran. Good luck.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/09/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas#xi-schumer-meeting-china-us

Quote

 

China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, met with Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, in Beijing on Monday and expressed hopes of “peaceful coexistence” between China and the United States, even as escalating violence in the Middle East threatens to deepen a wedge between the two powers.

“We have 1,000 reasons to make China-U.S. relations work well and not a single reason to make China-U.S. relations bad,” Mr. Xi said while meeting with the Democratic senator from New York.

Mr. Xi’s amicable tone is likely to increase expectations that he will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in San Francisco in November and meet with President Biden. Doing so would cap a tumultuous year for U.S.-China relations that reached a low in February after the discovery of a Chinese surveillance balloon over the United States.

Still, the specter of a growing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians could complicate any bid to improve ties between Beijing and Washington.

Mr. Schumer, who is in China leading a bipartisan congressional delegation, told Mr. Xi that he was “disappointed” by China’s lack of sympathy for Israel in its official response to the attack by Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that controls the Gaza Strip, on Israel.

“I urge you and the Chinese people to stand with the Israeli people and condemn the cowardly and vicious attacks,” Mr. Schumer told Mr. Xi.

Mr. Schumer said during a news conference after the meeting with Mr. Xi that he had requested that “China use its influence in Iran to not allow the conflagration to spread.”

“They have influence with Iran in many different ways, and we asked them to do everything they could to not have Iran spread this conflagration through themselves and through Hezbollah,” he said, referring to the Lebanese militant group backed by Tehran.

Asked how the Chinese side responded, Mr. Schumer said, “They said they would deliver the message.”

China has refrained from condemning Hamas for the attacks, opting instead to continue casting itself as a neutral party in the long-running conflict.

“China is a common friend of both Israel and Palestine,” Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, said at a regular news briefing on Monday.

An editorial published on Monday in the Global Times, which is affiliated with a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, blamed Western countries for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in an effort it said was led by the United States. It also warned that taking sides on the issue now would only add “fuel to the fire.”

China will most likely face growing pressure to support Israel — not unlike the calls that Beijing is facing to push Russia to end its fighting in Ukraine.

Yuval Waks, a senior official at the Israeli Embassy in Beijing, said on Sunday that he expected “stronger condemnation” of Hamas from China.

Tuvia Gering, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the Diane and Guilford Glazer Center at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, said on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that “China’s moral compass” was “broken.”

“As the Jewish Talmud says, silence is acquiescence,” Mr. Gering wrote on Monday.

While China and Israel maintain robust trade and investment ties, particularly as it relates to technology and infrastructure, their relationship is ultimately restrained by Israel’s deep alignment with the United States and China’s friendship with Iran.

China has a strategic interest in trying to be friends with all governments in the region; it garners much of its oil imports from the Middle East and considers it a key node along its Belt and Road trade network.

As the United States has drawn down its presence in the region, Mr. Xi has even tried to enhance his clout in the Middle East by helping restore diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two archrivals, in March. The next month, China offered to mediate Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

Though those talks never gained momentum, experts say China could still contribute in a constructive way by offering to mediate the release of civilian hostages held by Hamas. One of those hostages is believed to be a woman of Chinese descent who was abducted Saturday by militants at a music festival, the embassy said on the Chinese platform Weibo on Sunday.

“China has an opportunity to showcase its leadership and mediation prowess in a more substantial way,” said Gedaliah Afterman, the head of the Asia Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations at Reichman University in Israel.

“Successfully doing so,” he added, “would not only mitigate regional tensions but also solidify China’s reputation as a key player in fostering de-escalation and sustaining regional stability.”

 

 

[Parliament 14,227]

21 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

certainly not - they will starve 2,000,000...

I thought that was hyperbole so I googled it.  2.3MM in Gaza.  Woof.

[Brisketexan 105,041]

11 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I just don't see how a state that was created in response to the genocide of Jews can turn around and starve 2 million people to death. 

Also, I don't think Israel can do much of anything without US approval. 

You're not wrong.

I just come back to this: a movement that has as its unambiguous goal the extermination of all Jews wherever they may be found, a movement that is supported by the people of Gaza, has committed an act of genocide (yes, that's what a massive campaign to slaughter Israeli civilians is), and promises to commit more.

How do you respond to that?  Not "we did this because you aren't allowing our infrastructure to develop."  No.  "We did this because we will not rest until every Jew is dead."  Is there any other sane or rational response OTHER than rolling up your sleeves and getting your hands very, very dirty?

That's one of the reasons that "all or nothing, every one of you must die" movements/wars are the worst fucking kind of war.  There's an argument to be made that Israel would be stupid to leave anyone alive in Gaza.  Of course, there's the counter-argument that Israel would then be as bad or even worse than what it is fighting.  Neither argument is without merit.  That's why I don't look forward, at all, to what is to come.  There are only bad outcomes on the horizon.  Pick your poison, but don't fool yourself -- it's all poison.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

1 minute ago, Macklemore said:

Collective punishment is generally a no-no but if anyone has earned its use it’s the Gaza Palestinians. I think the Israeli government is licking its chops to show no mercy to teach them a lesson.

There is an immediate desire/need for revenge. Then there is the ongoing need to remain a state in good standing with the rest of the world.

We've heard every Western leader come out and state their country's absolute support for Israel's right to defend herself. But if they decide to murder 2 million people? I'm not sure that's a tenable situation for Israel moving forward.

[bolverk 29,644]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

I thought that was hyperbole so I googled it.  2.3MM in Gaza.  Woof.

They're packed in really tight too. The Gaza Strip is only 141 sq mi. By comparison, the City of Austin has 326 sq mi inside the city limits.

 

[InkaUtexas 25,853]

This war is going to impact quite a few things. And yes, Israel does have oil and gas, but only recently started to be worked on. 

JERUSALEM, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Israel has suspended production at the Tamar gas field off its southern coast and will seek alternative fuel sources to meet its needs, the energy ministry said on Monday following three days of violence in the region.

Chevron (CVX.N), which operates the field, confirmed it had been instructed by the ministry to shut down the field, which is a major source of gas to Israel's power generators and industry.

Some of Tamar's gas is also exported to neighbouring Jordan and Egypt.

The move comes after Hamas gunmen burst across the fence from Gaza on Saturday in the deadliest incursion into Israeli territory since Egypt and Syria's attacks in the Yom Kippur war 50 years ago.

"In the wake of the situation, Israel's defence establishment ordered the temporary suspension of natural gas supplies from the Tamar field," the energy ministry said in a statement.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/israel-shuts-down-offshore-tamar-gas-field-output-2023-10-09/

 

[wildcat09 29,338]

32 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Certainly Hamas is following the Geneva Convention rules on the treatment of POW's.

"Hamas are assholes so we can starve 2 million people" is not a compelling moral argument.

[Brisketexan 105,041]

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

An editorial published on Monday in the Global Times, which is affiliated with a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, blamed Western countries for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in an effort it said was led by the United States. It also warned that taking sides on the issue now would only add “fuel to the fire.”

........

“China has an opportunity to showcase its leadership and mediation prowess in a more substantial way,” said Gedaliah Afterman, the head of the Asia Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations at Reichman University in Israel.

“Successfully doing so,” he added, “would not only mitigate regional tensions but also solidify China’s reputation as a key player in fostering de-escalation and sustaining regional stability.”

This is interesting, and I hadn't really thought of it this way.  China has a choice of positioning itself as an OUTSIDER counter to the west and the US (that seems to be the role they've leaned into, although not wholeheartedly), OR it could position itself as an alternative from WITHIN the international order.  Why align yourself with shithole pariahs?  Do you really want to be king of the shithole pariahs?  Wouldn't you rather be a bonafide rival of real countries, because China is a real country, with real broad-based prosperity (it certainly sees itself that way).

Kind of like how Texas and OU positioned themselves as power players who were a CFB playoff alternative to the SEC....but finally realized that they'd have more power and prosperity from working WITHIN the SEC than from outside it.  I need to read more about this possible dynamic.  I don't think China will choose it, or will choose it in any large part, but it could be interesting.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You're not wrong.

I just come back to this: a movement that has as its unambiguous goal the extermination of all Jews wherever they may be found, a movement that is supported by the people of Gaza, has committed an act of genocide (yes, that's what a massive campaign to slaughter Israeli civilians is), and promises to commit more.

How do you respond to that?  Not "we did this because you aren't allowing our infrastructure to develop."  No.  "We did this because we will not rest until every Jew is dead."  Is there any other sane or rational response OTHER than rolling up your sleeves and getting your hands very, very dirty?

That's one of the reasons that "all or nothing, every one of you must die" movements/wars are the worst fucking kind of war.  There's an argument to be made that Israel would be stupid to leave anyone alive in Gaza.  Of course, there's the counter-argument that Israel would then be as bad or even worse than what it is fighting.  Neither argument is without merit.  That's why I don't look forward, at all, to what is to come.  There are only bad outcomes on the horizon.  Pick your poison, but don't fool yourself -- it's all poison.

Oh it's a huge fucking pickle, I'm well aware. But I tend to think that committing genocide will not work out in Israel's favor in the long-term. 

[Brisketexan 105,041]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Oh it's a huge fucking pickle, I'm well aware. But I tend to think that committing genocide will not work out in Israel's favor in the long-term. 

Also don't think you're wrong.

Also don't thing that Israel gives a fuck.

Also have a hard time thinking that if I was in their shoes, that I'd give a fuck either.

I think they lock down Gaza while they pound it.  For weeks.  Airstrikes.  Artillery.  Anyplace that has ties to Hamas, targeted.  Inka is right -- parts of Gaza will end up looking like Grozny.  Then, after that....the next phase.  No idea what it looks like.

[ztejas 43,411]

29 minutes ago, MisterP said:

I like the PH comparison more. Maybe they ignored the intel knowing that it would galvanize the Israeli's and the global politics to finally let them go in there and wipe Gaza off the face of the Earth? Unless you are into conspiracy theories, 9/11 doesnt equate to that....In this situation, it is much more like PH.

You're right - PH was a more direct means to an end. Whether or not we knew about it or 9/11 beforehand.