Israel-Hamas war thread

[Frank Drebin 5352]

 

 

[Viper 11958]

9 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The general consensus is that Iran was a big player in all this. They're happy to distract their populace and damage Israel. Israel and the Saudis were very close to announcing the normalization of relations between them. That's gone now. Russia's completely happy to have eyes off Ukraine.

I this this is right. I'm not sure how involved Russia was other than opportunistically using it to try to isolate Ukraine from the west through their lies about weapons. 

 

Going forward however, we'll have to see how much support comes from where

[Frank Drebin 5352]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1711542501910180083?s=20

[Viper 11958]

1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1711542501910180083?s=20

Militant group? Really wapo? 

[NoName 16243]

Just now, Frank Drebin said:

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1711542501910180083?s=20

text: https://archive.ph/xks93

 

Spoiler

Hamas received weapons and training from Iran, officials say
Iran ‘broadly complicit’ in supporting Palestinian militants, but no evidence seen of a direct role in slaughter, officials say

The Palestinian militants behind the surprise weekend attack on Israel began planning the assault at least a year ago, with key support from Iranian allies who provided military training and logistical help as well as tens of millions of dollars for weapons, current and former Western and Middle Eastern intelligence officials said Monday.

While Iran’s precise role in Saturday’s violence remained unclear, the officials said, the assault reflected Tehran’s years-long ambition to surround Israel with legions of paramilitary fighters armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons systems capable of striking deep inside the Jewish state.

Hamas, the Gaza-based Palestinian militant organization that led the attack, has historically maintained a degree of independence from Tehran compared with true Iranian proxy groups such as the Lebanese-based Hezbollah. But in recent years, Hamas has benefited from massive infusions of Iranian cash as well as technical help for manufacturing rockets and drones with advanced guidance systems, in addition to training in military tactics — some of which occurred in camps outside Gaza, the officials said.

U.S. and Israeli officials said they have no firm evidence so far that Iran authorized or directly coordinated the attack that killed more than 900 Israelis and wounded thousands. But current and former intelligence officials said the assault bore hallmarks of Iranian support, and noted officials in Tehran have boasted publicly about the huge sums in military aid provided to Hamas in recent years.
“If you train people on how to use weapons, you expect them to eventually use them,” said a Western intelligence official who, like others interviewed, requested that his name and nationality be withheld to freely discuss the rapidly unfolding events in southern Israel. The official, and a second Western analyst with access to sensitive intelligence, said the analysis conducted in the wake of the attack pointed to many months of preparation by Hamas, beginning at least as early as mid-2022.

In interviews, more than a dozen intelligence analysts and military experts expressed astonishment at the stealth and sophistication of the Hamas assault, which involved coordinated raids across the Israeli border by hundreds of gunmen traveling by land, sea and air — including motorized paragliders. The ground offensive was accompanied by swarms of rockets and drones that began streaking across the border early Saturday, hitting targets with a degree of precision not seen in previous Hamas attacks. While the Palestinian group has a capable militia and indigenous assembly lines for rockets and drones, an attack of Saturday’s scale would have been extremely challenging without considerable outside help, analysts said.

“The amount of training, logistics, communication, personnel, and weapons required provides a massive footprint,” said Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA senior operations officer who served in counterterrorism roles in the Middle East. “This suggests both Iranian involvement, given the complexity of the attack, and highlights the colossal intelligence failure.” The use of paragliders — reminiscent of a spectacular 1987 attack by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in Israel that killed several soldiers — “surely required training outside of Gaza,” Polymeropoulos said.

Jonathan Finer, the White House’s deputy national security adviser, said in an interview with CBS News: “What I can say without a doubt is that Iran is broadly complicit in these attacks. Iran has been Hamas’s primary backer for decades. They have provided them weapons. They have provided them training. They have provided them financial support. And so, in terms of broad complicity, we are very clear about a role for Iran.”

Iran denied a direct role in Saturday’s attack, while also praising the Hamas militants who carried it out. “We are not involved in Palestine’s response, as it is taken solely by Palestine itself,” Tehran’s mission to the United Nations said in a statement released Monday. But other Iranian officials publicly celebrated the attack while highlighting their close relationship with Hamas.

“You really made the Islamic Ummah happy with this innovative and victorious operation,” Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, quoted President Ebrahim Raisi as saying, using the Arabic word for the wider Muslim community.
The leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, acknowledged in an interview last year that his group received $70 million in military assistance from Iran. According to a State Department report from 2020, Iran provides about $100 million annually to Palestinian terrorist groups, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command.
Current and former intelligence officials confirmed that Iran had provided technical help to Hamas in manufacturing the more than 4,000 rockets and armed drones launched into Israel since Saturday. At least some Hamas militants also have undergone training in advanced military tactics, including at Lebanese camps staffed by technical advisers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah, the officials said.

The Hamas militants who received training were likely elite officers who passed along skills to other fighters inside Gaza itself, said Michael Knights, an expert on Iranian-backed militia groups and founder of the Militia Spotlight blog.
“It’s a ‘train the trainer’ approach,” Knights said. “You don’t have to do a lot to train someone to be capable of operating a drone system, which is not complicated stuff anymore.” On the other hand, he said, the combined-arms breaching capability exhibited during Saturday’s assault “clearly was practiced and carefully planned somewhere. A whole bunch of fortified positions fell to sophisticated combined arms-breaching attacks. And you don’t just wing that.”

For years, Iran’s principal militia ally in Gaza was a different group: Palestinian Islamic Jihad. But gradually Tehran began bolstering its ties with Hamas leaders and increasing its support, said Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“That relationship has deepened in the past few years,” Takeyh said. “It’s financial, political, at some level operational.”
Michael Eisenstadt, director of the Washington Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program, said that the relationship with Iran developed as a result of the Oslo peace process in the early 1990s when Tehran was looking for ways to scuttle efforts to forge a peace deal between the Palestinians and Israel. That was when Iran first provided the know-how for the explosive belts used by Palestinian suicide bombers.

The suicide bombing campaigns by both Hamas and Islamic Jihad had a “significant impact” on the peace process, he said. Hamas launched its first homemade rocket, the Qassam, in 2001 during the second intifada. But it was very rudimentary, using pipes and a homemade fuel mixture derived from sugar and other common components.

“Iran over the years has provided a lot of assistance to Hamas in terms of rocket capability,” Eisenstadt said. “The signature weapon of Iran proxies are rockets, and increasingly missiles. You see that everywhere — with Iraq, Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah. That’s very much inspired by Iranian example and advice.”

But other analysts stressed Hamas’s record as an independent actor, capable of carrying out sophisticated terrorism operations without outside instruction or supervision.

“This is a war between Hamas and Israel in which Iran is supporting Hamas, but Hamas is calling the shots,” said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA counterterrorism expert and now senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

While there’s “no doubt” that Hamas coordinates with Iran, the group’s relative independence makes it a harder target for Israeli and Western intelligence agencies, Riedel added.

“They do not routinely provide information to Iranian advisers who then communicate it home. There aren’t any advisers in Gaza,” said Riedel, who noted that it is difficult for ordinary Hamas fighters to leave Gaza for training abroad.
The rockets and missiles launched by Hamas may have been locally produced, but they possess a clear Iranian pedigree, analysts and weapons experts said.

Years ago, Iranian rockets were smuggled from Egypt through Sinai into Gaza. But after President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi came to power, Egypt closed many of the tunnels that connected Sinai to Gaza, and Iran began helping Hamas develop an indigenous capability.

“It’s better to give your proxies the ability to produce this stuff themselves than to have to worry about logistical pipelines that can be interdicted and cut off,” Eisenstadt said.

Some of the rockets produced by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas have Farsi terms in the blueprints, Eisenstadt said. And a drone used by Hamas, called the Shahab, is based on the Iranian Ababil-2, a loitering munition which Eisenstadt said is almost identical to a model being used in Yemen by the Houthis, another Iranian proxy.

Though Israel Defense Forces have said there is no evidence of Iranian operational involvement in the attack, the tactics used are very much “in accordance with Iran’s concept of operations,” to create a “crossroads of fire” — launching an attack every few months or years to “undermine Israeli morale, sap Israeli resilience” with the aim of “undermining the long-term viability of Israel,” Eisenstadt said.

Adam Taylor and Karen DeYoung contributed to this report.

 

[atomheartbevo 89150]

11 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Far from an expert but to me the other logical motivation behind the attack is they know it (particularly the brutal and uninaginable methods behind it) will force Israel's hands to kill a bunch of civilians as collateral damage (whether or not justified) which, for a generation, wipes out any chance of normalizing relations with Saudi or others.  

Also will end up causing issues among muslim and non-muslim citizens across western countries similar to post 9/11.  I think most of the Western world (and on a relative basis, Israel) had gotten far too comfortable with the radical muslim threat and this opens that back up.  For a hard line Iran govt dealing with "Westernazation" issues at home this has its advantages.  Not saying there aren't other benefits or there aren't subsequent dominos to fall but at a base level this motivation makes sense to me.

The thing is, most of the Muslim/Middle-Eastern countries don't give a shit about the Palestinians, and they are extremely happy that the Palestinians are mostly Israel's problem.  Sure, they may drop some criticisms of the Israelis because it plays well to the home audiences, but at the end of the day, Egypt is not willing to take them in, and Saudi Arabia is dropping half-a-trillion dollars on its futuristic city "Neom" on the Red Sea, and they aren't sending out invites to even a few thousand Palestinians.

Hell, there's been four different Egyptian governments, from Mubarak, through the Arab Spring government, through Morsi, through the current government (El-Sisi?) and they've kept the blockade against the Gaza Strip in place (partly due to the ties to the Muslim Brotherhood).

[Captainant 26933]

54 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

JFC, do they just want the entire world to go full scorched earth.  What's the play here?  Any negotiation play they had went out the window

looking back to history, it's not uncommon for an invading or aggressive force to "burn the ships" through atrocities that fully commit their forces (and anyone else affiliated with them) fully to the fight. Imperial japan used that tactic in WWII to ensure that their soliders everywhere would fight to the last dying gasp AND that their enemies would play their part to give the aggressors no choice but to fight. 

When atrocities happen, mercy goes out the window and there are fewer solutions left remaining that aren't ethnic cleansing.

The extremists want to crank up the temperature and increase the chaos so they have a more free hand to be bastards and do their evil.

[Helobious 9446]

2 minutes ago, Viper said:

Militant group? Really wapo? 

Militant (adjective)

combative and aggressive in support of a political or social cause, and typically favoring extreme, violent, or confrontational methods.

Whats wrong with that description exactly?

[MirrOlure 14496]

Just carpet bomb the entire Gaza Strip and be done with it. 

Gaza Gulch does have a certain ring to it…

[MissingInAction 24468]

One potential benefit to this atrocity is that it may create bipartisan support here. 

[atomheartbevo 89150]

Just now, MissingInAction said:

One potential benefit to this atrocity is that it may create bipartisan support here. 

Thankfully Russia is helping things by siding with Hamas and the Palestinians.

[Skipper 5969]

11 minutes ago, troph said:

That can certainly be a secondary motivation. I still come back to Russia / Iran / China v. US / Europe / Israel.

I think we spent too much time focused on when Russia would use nukes, I think the next desperate stage wasn’t that it was this.  I think Russia likely believes they can bleed us out too, that a multi theatre engagement weakens us and Europe. I suspect any play on Taiwan was met with the US is too strong and not spread thin enough. Conversations happened, and here we are.

All depends on perspective.   Russia's motivation is clearly Russia's motivation although unclear what, if any, role they actually played.  But sure they are no doubt pleased that it occurred.

But Iran appears to be the main player.  And keeping Russia happy is a secondary motivation for them.  Iran had plenty of direct motivation.   In other words, putting the Russia/Ukraine conflict completely aside, it's pretty easy to see direct benefits to Iran.  If anything, having the Western intelligence community focused on Russia made this easier to pull off.

[troph 24127]

22 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The general consensus is that Iran was a big player in all this. They're happy to distract their populace and damage Israel. Israel and the Saudis were very close to announcing the normalization of relations between them. That's gone now. Russia's completely happy to have eyes of Ukraine.

In the same way we have factions that will come together to support Ukraine and Israel so does this axis. China doesn’t give a shit about Palestinians but they like the US committing war ships to the eastern Med and not the South China Sea. Iran may care about harming Israel but Russian care less about that but for damn sure wants the US engaged elsewhere and wants to halt Saudi relationships and wants China and Iran support so they will support their initiatives. and above all of this is the overthrow of the US dollar to stop what is generally thought of as unilateral sanctions by the US and enforced by US banks (especially against Iran and Russia).
 

Coalitions aren’t just for domestic policy and elections. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by troph

[Surly Bevo 24645]

8 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

 

 

"Forced", is that how this works?

[Neonmoon 38126]

10 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

 

 

Been a while since a good old fashioned religious war

[Viper 11958]

 

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Viper

[Guest]

What is with all this analysis on the strategic motivations.  They are not playing chess or risk.  They are raping corpses and beheading babies.  We are not dealing with rational actors and there isn't any strategy or tactics involved here.     

[Trey3216 15308]

14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I know of them being dropped from planes or shot from artillery but in this case they would have to be placed/exploded under ground or lots of innocents would be killed.

They were launching the missiles at the end of that tunnel.  That leaves a very specific heat signature.  A bunker buster/thermobaric could hit that launch area and the entire tunnel system would be decimated.  Of course, those tunnels are almost 100% located directly under rows and rows of houses filled with "innocent" Palestinians.  

[troph 24127]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

But they had it.  They were being invited to Moscow and Tehran and a few other places, and were being treated as the head of a pseudo-nation state for being in charge of the Palestinian areas. They were considered to be, for all intents and purposes, the government of the closest thing to a Palestinian nation-state there is.

20 years of relatively hard work to get to where they were at, and that's all gone, along with the idea of a Palestinian nation-state.

That's not what the Hamas leadership wanted though - those dudes are not strapping on suicide vests or flying paragliders into Israel and running through the streets executing Israels.  The Hamas leadership...Hell, a chunk of them probably weren't even living in the Palestinian territories. 

They had it but only by invitation. They are the weakest party at the table and if Iran/Russia/China want something else they can immediately sideline Hamas if Hamas doesn’t do terrorist things for them. 

[BabaYaga 15188]

2 minutes ago, axiom of foundation said:

What is with all this analysis on the strategic motivations.  They are not playing chess or risk.  They are raping corpses and beheading babies.  We are not dealing with rational actors and there isn't any strategy or tactics involved here.     

They are the distraction/disruption

[MissingInAction 24468]

2 minutes ago, axiom of foundation said:

What is with all this analysis on the strategic motivations.  They are not playing chess or risk.  They are raping corpses and beheading babies.  We are not dealing with rational actors and there isn't any strategy or tactics involved here.     

[MNLonghornFUKM 8789]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1711542501910180083?s=20

Rouhani just said they weren’t involved.

I believe yo. I don’t know why but I do

[troph 24127]

2 minutes ago, axiom of foundation said:

What is with all this analysis on the strategic motivations.  They are not playing chess or risk.  They are raping corpses and beheading babies.  We are not dealing with rational actors and there isn't any strategy or tactics involved here.     

On the ground that is very true. The ones giving the broader orders are not just waking up on the bloodthirst side of the bed for no reason this morning.

[Skipper 5969]

1 minute ago, axiom of foundation said:

What is with all this analysis on the strategic motivations.  They are not playing chess or risk.  They are raping corpses and beheading babies.  We are not dealing with rational actors and there isn't any strategy or tactics involved here.     

I think we're absolutely dealing with a strategy as far as Iran is concerned.  They just knew damn well what happens when you let these subhuman pieces of shit loose on Israelis with weapons you provided.   I just don't buy this is some massive Russian/China/Iran alliance (although acknowledging Russia, China and any other anti-western country indirectly benefits).  Read the WAPO and WSJ articles.  This has been in planning stages for over a year.  

[Trey3216 15308]

7 minutes ago, troph said:

In the same way we have factions that will come together to support Ukraine and Israel so does this axis. China doesn’t give a shit about Palestinians but they like the US committing war ships to the eastern Med and not the South China Sea. Iran may care about harming Israel but Russian care less about that but for damn sure wants the US engaged elsewhere and wants to halt Saudi relationships and wants China and Iran support so they will support their initiatives. Coalitions aren’t just for domestic policy and elections. 

The US committing a carrier group to the Med is akin to going to your favorite Tex-Mex spot and committing to chips & salsa...has no bearing on the ability to eat the enchiladas.   

[atomheartbevo 89150]

4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Been a while since a good old fashioned religious war

If the Houthi actually had such missiles, they would have used them against Riyadh.  If they had them and saved them, and then tried to use them against Israel, they'd have to fly over Saudi Arabia, and I'm sure the Saudis would take that as a sign, with the backing of the US, to do something.

[troph 24127]

9 minutes ago, Skipper said:

All depends on perspective.   Russia's motivation is clearly Russia's motivation although unclear what, if any, role they actually played.  But sure they are no doubt pleased that it occurred.

But Iran appears to be the main player.  And keeping Russia happy is a secondary motivation for them.  Iran had plenty of direct motivation.   In other words, putting the Russia/Ukraine conflict completely aside, it's pretty easy to see direct benefits to Iran.  If anything, having the Western intelligence community focused on Russia made this easier to pull off.

Agreed and add things like a common enemy in the US due to crippling US led sanctions, china buying Iranian and Russian oil and that’s how coalitions are born. Just like the US rarely acts without informing strategic allies, so goes Iran, Russia and China.

[BabaYaga 15188]

Russia and Iran have been bedfellows for decades.  Russia and China is akin to the US and Russia during WWII - working together when their strategic goals align, but there is little to no trust there.  

[atomheartbevo 89150]

3 minutes ago, axiom of foundation said:

What is with all this analysis on the strategic motivations.  They are not playing chess or risk.  They are raping corpses and beheading babies.  We are not dealing with rational actors and there isn't any strategy or tactics involved here.     

Because Hamas spent decades getting into a position to be in charge of the Palestinians.  If all they wanted to do was kill Israelis, they didn't have to go through all that trouble.  Over the last 15 years, they could have taken a 100 suicide bombers and had them go kill 10 Israelis apiece, and the result would be the same amount of dead Israelis, without Israel laying waste to the Gaza Strip and vowing to end Hamas once and for all.

But instead, they spent years training these soldiers, who then invaded and controlled areas, and went on a brutal execution spree, killing everybody from babies to grandmas, and live-streaming the shit out of everything, and making sure that Hamas/Palestinian government officials claimed credit for all of this, ensuring that the maximum amount of force would be brought down upon them.

They guaranteed the end of their own organization, for what, a thousand dead Israelis?

[troph 24127]

7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

The US committing a carrier group to the Med is akin to going to your favorite Tex-Mex spot and committing to chips & salsa...has no bearing on the ability to eat the enchiladas.   

We only have 9. 1-2 are usually home. We have strategic concerns in the south China sea, the Med, the Arctic, Europe, the pacific… This isn’t chips and salsa despite “America Bald Eagles Soaring High Fuck Yeah” activate the Taiwan straights and three theaters of war and we aren’t enjoying enchiladas as those three trade support and threaten nukes to get what they each individually want.

Edited October 10, 2023 by troph

[Bevo 13442]

10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

They were launching the missiles at the end of that tunnel.  That leaves a very specific heat signature.  A bunker buster/thermobaric could hit that launch area and the entire tunnel system would be decimated.  Of course, those tunnels are almost 100% located directly under rows and rows of houses filled with "innocent" Palestinians.  

Plus, I would think the bombs/missiles would explode near the mouth of the tunnels so most of the heat in a counter strike would dissipate above ground. Anything in the area would be burnt to a crisp, not just the tunnel.

[BabaYaga 15188]

Moving a carrier group isn't a small undertaking.  It's not just the carrier, it's the dozens of support ships, including subs that protect sed carrier.  

[Viper 11958]

 

 

['stache 21655]

8 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I think we're absolutely dealing with a strategy as far as Iran is concerned.  They just knew damn well what happens when you let these subhuman pieces of shit loose on Israelis with weapons you provided.   I just don't buy this is some massive Russian/China/Iran alliance (although acknowledging Russia, China and any other anti-western country indirectly benefits).  Read the WAPO and WSJ articles.  This has been in planning stages for over a year.  

They certainly couldn't have entered this thinking they'd win. My current speculation is that Iran, etc., are behind it, told Hamas leaders that it's not working, your time is done, we'll protect you, but here's some weapons, tell your fighters to have at it. They probably told the fighters that they'd win, or that it was for religious reasons, etc.

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Because Hamas spent decades getting into a position to be in charge of the Palestinians.  If all they wanted to do was kill Israelis, they didn't have to go through all that trouble.  Over the last 15 years, they could have taken a 100 suicide bombers and had them go kill 10 Israelis apiece, and the result would be the same amount of dead Israelis, without Israel laying waste to the Gaza Strip and vowing to end Hamas once and for all.

But instead, they spent years training these soldiers, who then invaded and controlled areas, and went on a brutal execution spree, killing everybody from babies to grandmas, and live-streaming the shit out of everything, and making sure that Hamas/Palestinian government officials claimed credit for all of this, ensuring that the maximum amount of force would be brought down upon them.

They guaranteed the end of their own organization, for what, a thousand dead Israelis?

And how far did any of that get them to a real Palestinian state? As above, I think there might have been a feeling that Hamas is done, might as well go out with a bang. Even if not influenced by outside powers, it could be "fuck it, we'll never win, lets go out and take as many with us as possible." 

The only possible outcome here that isn't horrific is new Palestinian leadership emerging after Hamas is eliminated. Not that Israel will ever negotiate in good faith, so again, I truly think it's hopeless. 

[Bevo 13442]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

We only have 9. 1-2 are usually home. We have strategic concerns in the south China sea, the Med, the Arctic, pacific… This isn’t chips and salsa despite “America Bald Eagles Soaring High Fuck Yeah”

I'm sure we have a bunch sitting idle. We just need a bunch of old navy guys like blacklab to crew them.

[InkaUtexas 25001]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Because Hamas spent decades getting into a position to be in charge of the Palestinians.  If all they wanted to do was kill Israelis, they didn't have to go through all that trouble.  Over the last 15 years, they could have taken a 100 suicide bombers and had them go kill 10 Israelis apiece, and the result would be the same amount of dead Israelis, without Israel laying waste to the Gaza Strip and vowing to end Hamas once and for all.

But instead, they spent years training these soldiers, who then invaded and controlled areas, and went on a brutal execution spree, killing everybody from babies to grandmas, and live-streaming the shit out of everything, and making sure that Hamas/Palestinian government officials claimed credit for all of this, ensuring that the maximum amount of force would be brought down upon them.

They guaranteed the end of their own organization, for what, a thousand dead Israelis?

And from IDF reports, lost about 1500 of those trained troops. that is some Russia style shit right there. 

[BabaYaga 15188]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Plus, I would think the bombs/missiles would explode near the mouth of the tunnels so most of the heat in a counter strike would dissipate above ground. Anything in the area would be burnt to a crisp, not just the tunnel.

Many thermobaric are aerosol/vacuum weapons - meaning the aerosol is released, a second charge ignites it, and the massive explosion creates a vacuum that will suck your lungs out of your mouth.  In confined spaces, you don't need the full charge to "inside-out" everyone in the tunnel system....as learned in Afghanistan.  

[troph 24127]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

I'm sure we have a bunch sitting idle. We just need a bunch of old navy guys like blacklab to crew them.

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I'm sure we have a bunch sitting idle. We just need a bunch of old navy guys like blacklab to crew them.

There are several strategic mothball fleets/ships, but I think most are in pretty bad shape. There is on in the Golden Triangle at McFaddin Bend Cutoff which had a carrier. The carrier was sold to the Red Cross. There is another in the Bay Area as well. 

[Trey3216 15308]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Many thermobaric are aerosol/vacuum weapons - meaning the aerosol is released, a second charge ignites it, and the massive explosion creates a vacuum that will suck your lungs out of your mouth.  In confined spaces, you don't need the full charge to "inside-out" everyone in the tunnel system....as learned in Afghanistan.  

Was just typing a response about secondary charge.  Glad you beat me to it.  

[BabaYaga 15188]

Just now, troph said:

#BattleshipMovie

[troph 24127]

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They certainly couldn't have entered this thinking they'd win. My current speculation is that Iran, etc., are behind it, told Hamas leaders that it's not working, your time is done, we'll protect you, but here's some weapons, tell your fighters to have at it. They probably told the fighters that they'd win, or that it was for religious reasons, etc.

And how far did any of that get them to a real Palestinian state? As above, I think there might have been a feeling that Hamas is done, might as well go out with a bang. Even if not influenced by outside powers, it could be "fuck it, we'll never win, lets go out and take as many with us as possible." 

The only possible outcome here that isn't horrific is new Palestinian leadership emerging after Hamas is eliminated. Not that Israel will ever negotiate in good faith, so again, I truly think it's hopeless. 

All of that may be true but the world doesn’t function often on unilateral action. Iran and Russia say good night to each other before they turn out the lights. This is multilateral 100% and it’s why it should concern the fuck out of all of us.

[BabaYaga 15188]

5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They certainly couldn't have entered this thinking they'd win. My current speculation is that Iran, etc., are behind it, told Hamas leaders that it's not working, your time is done, we'll protect you, but here's some weapons, tell your fighters to have at it. They probably told the fighters that they'd win, or that it was for religious reasons, etc.

A "true believer" doesn't look at statistics and probability.  Someone wound them up and set them loose

1 minute ago, troph said:

All of that may be true but the world doesn’t function often on unilateral action. Iran and Russia say good night to each other before they turn out the lights. This is multilateral 100% and it’s why it should concern the fuck out of all of us.

Hence my "this is just the distraction/disruption" phase of the game.  There's more to come

[52-80 19010]

32 minutes ago, Viper said:

Militant group? Really wapo? 

Murderous but Mostly Peaceful Militants

[jimmyjazz 45241]

I'm sure I could find the answer if I dug deep enough, perhaps on this thread, but indulge me:

I see Palestinians on the Gaza Strip referring to their living conditions as like being in an "open air prison".  Up until the past few days, it seems they were weathering a siege of sorts, with limited resource availability.  To what degree have they been "captive" over the years?  Are they free to come and go, crossing into neighboring countries, etc.?

I understand that we're now talking about a full blown siege.  I want to know about their prior living conditions.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Because Hamas spent decades getting into a position to be in charge of the Palestinians.  If all they wanted to do was kill Israelis, they didn't have to go through all that trouble.  Over the last 15 years, they could have taken a 100 suicide bombers and had them go kill 10 Israelis apiece, and the result would be the same amount of dead Israelis, without Israel laying waste to the Gaza Strip and vowing to end Hamas once and for all.

But instead, they spent years training these soldiers, who then invaded and controlled areas, and went on a brutal execution spree, killing everybody from babies to grandmas, and live-streaming the shit out of everything, and making sure that Hamas/Palestinian government officials claimed credit for all of this, ensuring that the maximum amount of force would be brought down upon them.

They guaranteed the end of their own organization, for what, a thousand dead Israelis?

Sometimes terrorists groups who are filled with hate do things to cause pain and suffering without properly evaluating all the consequences and strategic advantages & disadvantages of their actions.  You could give your same argument for al qaeda and the taliban in 9/11.  Why spend years supporting & planning an attack just to have the US wipe you out?  Seems like a very stupid strategic move. If one is motivated by revenge, then tactics and strategy are not at the top of the list of priorities.  

[G650 13394]

The Navy experts have come out now.

[Bevo 13442]

7 minutes ago, troph said:

 

[troph 24127]

9 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

A "true believer" doesn't look at statistics and probability.  Someone wound them up and set them loose

Hence my "this is just the distraction/disruption" phase of the game.  There's more to come

I tend to look for tight analysis for higher level shit and then run with it and it can be wrong but there no way Russia, China and Iran aren’t actively talking about how to get the Yankees out of the control seat and this is undoubtedly imo opinion part of it. Two have natural resources for the one that has a world power economy, all have despot leaders, at least two are fully nuclear, all want neighbors destroyed or controlled and they all have one true common enemy or road block - US military and weaponized-economic hegemony.  
 

I can’t see a problem brewing here…. 
 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by troph

[BabaYaga 15188]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm sure I could find the answer if I dug deep enough, perhaps on this thread, but indulge me:

I see Palestinians on the Gaza Strip referring to their living conditions as like being in an "open air prison".  Up until the past few days, it seems they were weathering a siege of sorts, with limited resource availability.  To what degree have they been "captive" over the years?  Are they free to come and go, crossing into neighboring countries, etc.?

I understand that we're now talking about a full blown siege.  I want to know about their prior living conditions.

It got really bad in 2007 when Israel implemented a blockade to the strip in response to Hamas being cock bags.  The strip relies on Israel for everything:  food, water, electricity.  Before that, in the early 90's the Oslo accords gave the Palestinians a measure of self determinism before Hamas flipped the table.  Israel moved out Israeli settlements in the early 2000's, but when Hamas was elected into power in 2006, no further elections have happened in the region and they effectively control everything.