Israel-Hamas war thread

[Schulz2.0 28,993]

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Lulz. Yes, it’s the real Four Seasons account. Maybe Mossad needs to look at Four Seasons Landscaping? 
 

 

Maybe he meant Four Seasons Landscaping. Edit: Apparently I can't read after I wake up from a night shift.

Edited October 15, 2023 by Schulz2.0

[Schulz2.0 28,993]

71 year old landlord fatally stabs a six year old kid. The mother is in serious condition with stab wounds. They were his tenants.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/15/plainfield-illinois-plainfield-six-year-old-muslim-boy-mother-murder-hate-crime

Edited October 15, 2023 by Schulz2.0

[Buzzrock 14,936]

[Schulz2.0 28,993]

Lots of smoke that the ground offensive will start soon.

 

 

[Pods 7,586]

 

^ Trophy APS (Active Systems Protection) destroys incoming RPGs. 

First link is info, second link is the system in slow motion action against an RPG-7. 

 

[Parliament 14,273]

Does Trophy "look up" to take out missiles/arty coming straight from above?

[Ag with kids 581]

On 10/14/2023 at 2:22 PM, Bevo said:

There are lots of possible explanations. They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

1) Russia helped plan the attack to increase their chances of winning in Ukraine

2) Hamas wanted untraceable money and used crypto so it couldn't be easily traced

3) A Russian crypto was the only viable avenue that Hamas could use for international funding

4) Russia wasn't involved directly but saw an avenue to spread unrest

5) It was a regular occurrence that just happened to coincide with the attack

 

Are there more possibilities?

 

Don't trust Russia.  Russia is asshore!

 

[Ag with kids 581]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Lulz. Yes, it’s the real Four Seasons account. Maybe Mossad needs to look at Four Seasons Landscaping? 
 

 

I think the Four Seasons is saying "Please don't blow up our hotel!!!"

On 10/14/2023 at 10:16 AM, B00M said:

Which side would be motivated to attack the evacuation corridor? 
 

 

Hamas’ continued existence requires civilians and framing israel to gin up international outrage. It’s their only play at this point.

On another sad note, Suzanne Somers died today.  Not in the bombing, though.

[InkaUtexas 26,021]

Do not think this will end the situation, but hopefully alleviate the burden on the hospitals and civilians. 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,993]

Article about the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/15/rafah-border-crossing-could-egypt-open-it-to-fleeing-palestinians

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26,021]

I think it gets opened for foreign nationals and aid convoys, but not to the average Palestinian. Egypt could not handle it. Look at the rough conditions of Syrian camps in Jordan and along the Turkish border. 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,993]

 

 

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,993]

8 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

71 year old landlord fatally stabs a six year old kid. The mother is in serious condition with stab wounds. They were his tenants.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/15/plainfield-illinois-plainfield-six-year-old-muslim-boy-mother-murder-hate-crime

So the parents are originally from the West Bank. Reuters said the boy had recently celebrated his 6th birthday.

[Buzzrock 14,936]

[/url]  
 
 
 
 

[immamac 42,877]

Israel needs to slow its fucking roll. There is no reason they have to do this right now. They can wait a bit and "prepare" some more they've shown enough that they aren't fucking around. There is no momentum to be gained by a hamas regroup. 

[InkaUtexas 26,021]

6 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Do not think this will end the situation, but hopefully alleviate the burden on the hospitals and civilians. 

 

Israel and Hamas said no ceasefire. 

[statsman 5,473]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

Israel needs to slow its fucking roll. There is no reason they have to do this right now. They can wait a bit and "prepare" some more they've shown enough that they aren't fucking around. There is no momentum to be gained by a hamas regroup. 

I have heard Israeli leaders say that they appreciate the support of the western nations, but they understand that it has a shelf life. They know that attention on protracted Gazan civilian suffering will erode and end much of that support, so they need to get as much done as they can, as quickly as they can. 

[VABuckeye 2,472]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

I have heard Israeli leaders say that they appreciate the support of the western nations, but they understand that it has a shelf life. They know that attention on protracted Gazan civilian suffering will erode and end much of that support, so they need to get as much done as they can, as quickly as they can. 

Agreed.  Drawing it out makes them look worse in the court of public opinion.

[Helobious 9,464]

So it’s been a week and not one hostage recovered, correct? I wonder if any were even still alive a day or so after the attack. If they were they probably died in the bombings or by execution by now. Fucked up situation. 

[ztejas 43,524]

8 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

LOL at the fucking Mp40s and steyr. Guess they couldn't find any Kentucky long rifles to use. 

"Hey we know they have night vision and well-maintaned TARs - here's a gun from 1929 that may or may not fire. Inshallah."

[statsman 5,473]

19 minutes ago, Helobious said:

So it’s been a week and not one hostage recovered, correct? I wonder if any were even still alive a day or so after the attack. If they were they probably died in the bombings or by execution by now. Fucked up situation. 

World leaders are still trying to answer a basic question: Which citizens, from which countries, are being held captive in a tunnel network under the Gaza Strip?
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-hostage-crisis-ea26e3d7?st=6qckiqvo643zqxj&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
 

[B00M 6,431]

9 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Based on all the discussion up thread, I was expecting to see an M4 with an ACOG. Was that just more twitter bullshit? 

['stache 21,825]

3 hours ago, statsman said:

I have heard Israeli leaders say that they appreciate the support of the western nations, but they understand that it has a shelf life. They know that attention on protracted Gazan civilian suffering will erode and end much of that support, so they need to get as much done as they can, as quickly as they can. 

 

2 hours ago, VABuckeye said:

Agreed.  Drawing it out makes them look worse in the court of public opinion.

I don't believe that for a second. No western leader of any significant profile (with a few cr exceptions) will ever criticize Israel. It's a death sentence politically. 

[mchookem 16,342]

6 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

 

5 hours ago, immamac said:

Israel needs to slow its fucking roll. There is no reason they have to do this right now. They can wait a bit and "prepare" some more they've shown enough that they aren't fucking around. There is no momentum to be gained by a hamas regroup. 

Biden was pretty clear last night in saying 'Iran has obviously supported Hamas financially and such in the past, but there has been no evidence presented that would indicate they provided any material support for this attack.'

i suppose new shit could have come to light in the last 24 hours, but if not...there was no ambiguity in what he said. 

[NoName 16,364]

AM Updates

this was long planned and had a ton of supplies involved

Shin Bet head takes responsibility

the text on this is borderline CR, not sharing for that just the two videos side by side to show the damage

 

full text:

It's very clear that #Hamas is pacing itself when it comes to the rocket fire. Hamas is limiting the daily number of rocket launches, while maintaining a near-daily rate of attack against major urban Israeli cities.

I doubt that this is because Israel has severly affected the group's missile arsenal (which would require a ground incursion). Hamas is rather preparing for a long war, waiting to gauge Israel's reaction.

 

this is that weird story that got deleted but sources are still confirming

image:

Spoiler

update from a few min ago

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,738]

30 minutes ago, 'stache said:

 

I don't believe that for a second. No western leader of any significant profile (with a few cr exceptions) will ever criticize Israel. It's a death sentence politically. 

In this context especially it’s important to watch what is done and not what is said. Biden’s immediate, strong vocal support for Israel opened the door for a lot of maneuvering in the background.  All indications are that the U.S. is urging quite a bit of restraint— see pressure to get the water flowing, talks to open a humanitarian corridor, etc. I don’t believe for a second that the ground offensive was delayed due to “weather,” there is a lot going on here. 

[InkaUtexas 26,021]

Also. saw this live on CNN. So launches continue. 

 

[InkaUtexas 26,021]

BNO reporting Muslim shooter. AP reporting the shooting, not making that allegation. BNO has been a good source in the past. 

 

https://apnews.com/article/belgium-shooting-swedes-dead-d023a72119dc73ffca7cc61b7a32a955

BRUSSELS (AP) — Two people were killed in a shooting late Monday in central Brussels, Belgian police said. 

Media reports aired amateur videos showing a man shooting several times near a station using a large weapon, and Belgian broadcasters said the two victims were Swedes. The Swedish national team was scheduled to play Belgium at Heysel Stadium later in the evening, some 3 miles (5 kilometers) away. 

Police spokeswoman Ilse Vande Keere said officers arrived soon at the scene, and sealed off the immediate neighborhood. She declined to elaborate on the circumstances of the shooting. 

The shooting came at a time of increased vigilance linked to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war that has heightened tension in several European nations.

[Rip76 4,946]

[Bevo 13,590]

1 hour ago, Rip76 said:

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,738]

6 hours ago, Helobious said:

So it’s been a week and not one hostage recovered, correct? I wonder if any were even still alive a day or so after the attack. If they were they probably died in the bombings or by execution by now. Fucked up situation. 

Hamas keeps announcing a certain number of hostages have been killed in bombings but as the as U know they have released maybe one name. They also threatened to kill hostages in retaliation for strikes. The bottom line is that nothing they say about hostages is credible and that makes it difficult for Israel to fine-tune their response accordingly as it’s unclear whether any are alive at all. 

[956 Worldwide 34,738]

One of the ways this is different than 9/11 is the immediate and serious critical examination of government and institutional failure.  It also undermines the theories that Bibi let the attack happen, he is likely to pay a political price. I think a full accounting will show a lot of distractions and missed signs, as well as questionable policy decisions. I have strong doubts that anyone will reveal specific, actionable intelligence that Israel ignored or chose not to act on, as has already been speculated about in CR or other places online.

 

[Parliament 14,273]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Also. saw this live on CNN. So launches continue. 

 

The Israelis were criticized for not shaing Iron Dome with Ukraine, but we can see why they didn't.  That's a LOT of ordinance going up.

[BrickHorn 18,256]

*ordnance

[Schulz2.0 28,993]

From The Guardian's live blog:

[956 Worldwide 34,738]

8 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

From The Guardian's live blog:

The resistance group language seems like a tipoff that it will be Hizbollah as the proxy and not Tehran. Those carriers are there as deterrents, but what happens if deterrence fails? 

[Bevo 13,590]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The resistance group language seems like a tipoff that it will be Hizbollah as the proxy and not Tehran. Those carriers are there as deterrents, but what happens if deterrence fails? 

If it is coming from Iran but action is taken by Hezbollah, does this mean that Israel should declare war on Iran?

[956 Worldwide 34,738]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

If it is coming from Iran but action is taken by Hezbollah, does this mean that Israel should declare war on Iran?

That’s something Israel will have to decide. They’ll likely do it in consultation with us. Everyone knows that Hizbollah is an Iran proxy but these convenient fictions can be convenient for both sides. 
 

There will be a strong case for Israel trying to just fight it out with Hizbollah and avoid any sort of declared inter-state war. 

Edited October 16, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[Brisketexan 105,180]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

That’s something Israel will have to decide. They’ll likely do it in consultation with us. Everyone knows that Hizbollah is an Iran proxy but these convenient fictions can be convenient for both sides. 

This.

For the same reason that it is "Iran-backed Hexbollah" attacking Israel (using Iranian arms and training), so it is "US-backed Ukraine" attacking Russian forces (using US arms and training).  The distinctions are at once real, and semantic and absurd....but that's the "international order" for you.

[956 Worldwide 34,738]

There’s some strong WWI vibes of no one wanting to go to war but no one really feeling like they have a choice here, BTW.

With the added complexity of some actors (in Hamas and Hizbollah) that are apocalyptic and believe God will prevail for them if they have faith.  FWIW, I don’t think Iranian leadership believes that. But their legitimacy inside Iran rests on them ACTING as though they believe it so it might not make a difference. 

[SimonBolivar 10,958]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s some strong WWI vibes of no one wanting to go to war but no one really feeling like they have a choice here, BTW.

With the added complexity of some actors (in Hamas and Hizbollah) that are apocalyptic and believe God will prevail for them if they have faith.  FWIW, I don’t think Iranian leadership believes that. But their legitimacy inside Iran rests on them ACTING as though they believe it so it might not make a difference. 

I guess it depends on how much Israel is willing to accept fuckery wrt Iran?

 

What is Iran's military capability right now? The drones they gave to Russia and some human waves like it's 1980?

[UT_OB1 2,224]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

The Israelis were criticized for not shaing Iron Dome with Ukraine, but we can see why they didn't.  That's a LOT of ordinance going up.

Everything I’ve read about Iron Dome leads me to believe it wouldn’t be useful in Ukraine and that’s why it wasn’t deployed there (meant to stop dump shoulder fired rockets, slower targets, and less area). I think if it would really move the needle we would have given them our 2 that we don’t really use. 

[Captainant 27,693]

12 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s some strong WWI vibes of no one wanting to go to war but no one really feeling like they have a choice here, BTW.

With the added complexity of some actors (in Hamas and Hizbollah) that are apocalyptic and believe God will prevail for them if they have faith.  FWIW, I don’t think Iranian leadership believes that. But their legitimacy inside Iran rests on them ACTING as though they believe it so it might not make a difference. 

It certainly would be an echo of WWI to have the lines on maps drawn a century ago be the seeds of grievance for a new global conflect

[atomheartbevo 89,759]

11 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s some strong WWI vibes of no one wanting to go to war but no one really feeling like they have a choice here, BTW.

With the added complexity of some actors (in Hamas and Hizbollah) that are apocalyptic and believe God will prevail for them if they have faith.  FWIW, I don’t think Iranian leadership believes that. But their legitimacy inside Iran rests on them ACTING as though they believe it so it might not make a difference. 

Hamas has no choice, it's an existential moment for them, and they are all in as their leadership is slowly being picked off.  Well, they have one option - somebody within Hamas rises up and removes the remaining leadership/turns them over to the Israelis and tries to do a ceasefire of sorts, but given that Hamas is who they always said they were, the chances of somebody within Hamas trying to end this peacefully are extremely low.

For Hezbollah it's not yet existential, but if they attack while Israel is trying to deal with Hamas, it will become existential for them, and the US and others very well could become involved, both on the tactical level (going after Hezbollah targets directly with all those F-15Es the USAF parked in Jordan this weekend), but also on a strategic level by cutting off Hezbollah from Iran (helped by the US having forces in Syria and Iraq).

 

[atomheartbevo 89,759]

3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I guess it depends on how much Israel is willing to accept fuckery wrt Iran?

What is Iran's military capability right now? The drones they gave to Russia and some human waves like it's 1980?

It's a weird dynamic - Israel's 9 million vs Iran's 88 million, but Israel is much better armed with high-tech and tested equipment - Iran has drones and missiles that they've been selling Russia, and of the stuff that could reach Israel, I doubt the Saudis/Iraqis/Turks want it flying overhead.

Meanwhile, Israel is preparing their tanks

 

[Captainant 27,693]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

For Hezbollah it's not yet existential, but if they attack while Israel is trying to deal with Hamas, it will become existential for them, and the US and others very well could become involved, both on the tactical level (going after Hezbollah targets directly with all those F-15Es the USAF parked in Jordan this weekend), but also on a strategic level by cutting off Hezbollah from Iran (helped by the US having forces in Syria and Iraq).

A good friend of mine lives in Beruit said that airlines have diverted away and there's no more outbound flights available. He's convinced that Hezbollah doesn't want to get drawn in as a combatant into Israel because they're so over stretched already, and it would mean their demise in no uncertain terms. 

[InkaUtexas 26,021]

There won't be a ground invasion until after this. But better watch out for incoming rockets. 

 

[MissingInAction 25,133]

[Schulz2.0 28,993]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s some strong WWI vibes of no one wanting to go to war but no one really feeling like they have a choice here, BTW.

With the added complexity of some actors (in Hamas and Hizbollah) that are apocalyptic and believe God will prevail for them if they have faith.  FWIW, I don’t think Iranian leadership believes that. But their legitimacy inside Iran rests on them ACTING as though they believe it so it might not make a difference. 

[Royalfan5 2,354]

Outside of Hezbollah, how would Iran meaningfully engage with Israel military?  They’re not floating over there, and I don’t see flying or driving working unless Israel forgets how to fly planes?