Israel-Hamas war thread

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Cool. That doesn’t really have anything to do with the IDF snatching kids out of their beds in the middle of the night though. 

Not directly. But the burden of proof is on you. 

[Anastasis 23,485]

Oh yes, tell me all about the burden of proof standard in the military courts that Palestinian children are subjected to after they are roused from their beds at 3am for their administrative detention hearings. 

[DDD Dad 14,351]

Whatever bad acts the Israelis may have done in the West Bank are in no way a justification for Hamas holding children hostage in Gaza. 

Just stop. 

[Anastasis 23,485]

9 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Whatever bad acts the Israelis may have done in the West Bank are in no way a justification for Hamas holding children hostage in Gaza. 

Just stop. 

No one said they were. Don’t cry cause your crickets chirping for the last decade of children hostage taking gets brought up. It’s funny how the shoot the fascists in the face posters catch the vapors so easily. 

[Viper 12,112]

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,772]

You can say that Israel needs to end the practice of military courts or administrative detention. But of course it’s sadly to be expected that dissemblers will try to draw an equivalence between Thai farm workers, grannies, and toddlers on the one hand and a pack of attempted murderers, muggers, bomb-throwers, gunmen and assorted teenage delinquents on the other hand. 
 

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[DDD Dad 14,351]

9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

No one said they were. Don’t cry cause your crickets chirping for the last decade of children hostage taking gets brought up. It’s funny how the shoot the fascists in the face posters catch the vapors so easily. 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,772]

Sick fucking people. 
 

[Viper 12,112]

 

 

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by Viper

[Viper 12,112]

Sounds like the deal is back on 

 

 

[DDD Dad 14,351]

16 hours ago, Viper said:

 

 

I was told they were all children taken as hostages in the middle of the night. 

[DDD Dad 14,351]

 

[DDD Dad 14,351]

17 more hostages released today. 
 

 

[Viper 12,112]

Reports that we recaptured one of the 3 (or 4 now?) hijacked tankers 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/armed-individuals-seize-israeli-managed-oil-tanker-gulf-aden-us-official-2023-11-26/

Quote

Tanker in Middle East safe from attackers after US Navy responds, officials say

By Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart and Aziz El Yaakoubi

November 26, 20234:41 PM CSTUpdated 2 hours ago

WASHINGTON/RIYADH, Nov 26 (Reuters) - A U.S. Navy warship responded to a distress call from a commercial tanker in the Gulf of Aden that had been seized by armed individuals and is now safe, U.S. officials said on Sunday.

The tanker, which had been carrying a cargo of phosphoric acid, was identified as the Central Park by the vessel's company. The officials did not identify the attackers..

One of the U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the USS Mason warship had responded to the distress call and the tanker was now free.

The incident is the latest in a series of attacks in Middle Eastern waters since a brutal war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas broke out on Oct. 7.

It followed a seizure of an Israeli-linked cargo ship by Yemen Houthis, allies of Iran, in the southern Red Sea last week. The group, which also fired ballistic missiles and armed drones at Israel, vowed to target more Israeli vessels.

Central Park, a small chemical tanker (19,998 metric tons), is managed by Zodiac Maritime Ltd, a London-headquartered international ship management company owned by Israel's Ofer family. The Liberian-flagged vessel was built in 2015 and is owned by Clumvez Shipping Inc, LSEG data showed.

Zodiac Maritime said in a statement Central Park, which is carrying a full cargo of phosphoric acid, was involved in a suspected piracy incident while crossing international waters, approximately 54 nautical miles off the coast of Somalia.

 

[Willfully Horn 8,049]

On 11/24/2023 at 11:33 AM, Anastasis said:

Maybe they are morally confused after watching the IDF for years execute midnight raids to scoop up Palestinian children from their beds in Jerusalem and the West Bank for “administrative detention”, often to leverage their detention against their relatives. 

 

On 11/24/2023 at 10:53 PM, Anastasis said:

No one said they were. Don’t cry cause your crickets chirping for the last decade of children hostage taking gets brought up. It’s funny how the shoot the fascists in the face posters catch the vapors so easily. 

Shoot fascists in the face. Don’t involve children in violent political disputes. Don’t claim that is happening without supporting your claim, no matter what Putin wants you to post.

[Viper 12,112]

Seems like the Houthis used the ship as bait or took the opportunity of our ships responding to shoot some missiles at us. Luckily (for them) they were way off

U.S. Central Command has now Confirmed that 2 Ballistic Missiles were launched by the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen earlier tonight in the General Direction of the USS Mason (DDG-87) while it was Responding to the Distress Call of the Israeli-Linked Chemical Tanker “Central Park” in the Gulf of Aden, but they further state that it is Unknown whether the Missiles were actually attempting to Target the Ship and that they landed in the Ocean roughly 10 Nautical Miles away not warranting any kind of Interception.

 

[Nivek 16,986]

Where did they get those? Need to hit their oil infrastructure in response.

[Parliament 14,296]

Yeah it might be time to launch a robust series of air strikes.

[Viper 12,112]

some stories from the hostages are starting to come out

 

I believe this was the hostage with dual Russian citizenship that Putin asked to be released as a favor for his "support" of the Palestinians. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,610]

On 11/25/2023 at 8:15 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

Sick fucking people. 
 

Yeah, they have young children as hostages.  But it's all about better infrastructure and having their own country, right?

Why aren't they going to be charged with war crimes?

[956 Worldwide 34,772]

9 hours ago, Parliament said:

Yeah it might be time to launch a robust series of air strikes.

The Pentagon is claiming that the likely target of the missiles was the merchant vessel and not the destroyer or the CSG.  I smell some obfuscation here— it’s clear that this admin is desperate not to go kinetic outside of places like Syria where we have been active anyway. It’s a lot more convenient to pretend they aren’t shooting at us, but at some point for deterrence to work— someone has to be home when the doorbell rings or else you look foolish.

Also of interest in this story— 4 PLAN vessels were operating in the area and basically pretended that they didn’t hear the call. The USN and the Japanese responded.  A data point on how China makes noise at being a responsible global player but doesn’t want to do it.  Even Russia—fucking Russia— was taking active part in anti-piracy actions when the Somalis were feisty. 

[956 Worldwide 34,772]

5 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, they have young children as hostages.  But it's all about better infrastructure and having their own country, right?

Why aren't they going to be charged with war crimes?

The unpleasant truth is that Hamas started a war that’s killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, brutally murdered thousands of Jews in the most horrific ways, is holding toddlers hostage—- and has never enjoyed greater support in the West Bank than right now. It’s all seen as worth it to get some stabby women and rock-throwing delinquents out of jail. We tell ourselves some pleasant lies about what the population wants. 

[Nivek 16,986]

7 hours ago, Viper said:

some stories from the hostages are starting to come out

 

I believe this was the hostage with dual Russian citizenship that Putin asked to be released as a favor for his "support" of the Palestinians. 

I would like to think that this helps to disabuse people of the notion that not all Pals support Hamas, but a majority of them do. 

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

7 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Why aren't they going to be charged with war crimes?

The plan is to kill them, not give them a trial.

[Anastasis 23,485]

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We tell ourselves some pleasant lies

Most on the head portion of that post. 

[Anastasis 23,485]

On bright side news, ceasefire appears to be extended a couple days. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-hopes-extension-israel-hamas-truce-enters-final-day-2023-11-27/

Hard to find the actual terms of the ceasefire agreement, but if I understand correctly, there is a provision for extension of the ceasefire for incremental release of hostages. Haven't seen a clean breakdown of IDF vs. civilian hostages held in Gaza. If hamas had anything other than shit for brains, they would try to negotiate an immediate release of all non-IDF hostages for a multiple in terms of both extension and exchange. But they have shit for brains, so that probably won't happen. 

[956 Worldwide 34,772]

“Hamas, which I do not support at all, is not effectively leveraging the toddlers they are holding hostage after murdering their parents.”— By Glenn Greenwald and Anastasis 

[Anastasis 23,485]

Immediate release is a favorable outcome for all parties relative to drawn out exchanges over weeks. And likewise an agreed extended ceasefire is a favorable outcome over a tenuous ceasefire that is ready to fall apart the first time a daily milestone is not met. These are easy concepts to grasp.  

[Anastasis 23,485]

Sometimes you just have to put it out into the universe. Hope this goes somewhere. 
 

 

Translation of the tweet in Hebrew:

Negotiations for a new cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, in which all the abductees in Gaza, including soldiers, will be released. On the other hand, Israel will massively release security prisoners in Israeli prisons. As part of the agreement, the parties discuss a ceasefire for an extended period of time. The new agreement is currently being discussed in Qatar, where the leaders are there discussing the details: the head of the Mossad >>

Edited November 28, 2023 by Anastasis

[Anastasis 23,485]

Chaser: Tear apart the Bibi coalition at the same time. 

 

Translation: "Stopping the war = dissolution of the government"

[Viper 12,112]

On 11/27/2023 at 11:29 AM, Viper said:

some stories from the hostages are starting to come out

 

I believe this was the hostage with dual Russian citizenship that Putin asked to be released as a favor for his "support" of the Palestinians. 

Some more coming out. The children are unsurprisingly traumatized

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Viper

[Brisketexan 105,336]

55 minutes ago, Viper said:

Some more coming out. The children are unsurprisingly traumatized

 

 

 

But....but....I was told that civilians in Gaza did not support Hamas?  

Come on.  That was bullshit, it was always bullshit, and it will continue to be bullshit.

The Israeli people (by enough of a margin to let him form a government, repeatedly) supported Bibi.....and they bear responsibility for that, and the suffering it has wrought.  The Palestinians of Gaza must carry the same responsibility for their choices.  Two groups of people who, by at least a working plurality/majority, want to move forward with bloodthirsty, genocidal paths.  Lovely fucking planet we have here.

Oh, and the part they aren't telling you is that those kids were raped, repeatedly.  And violently.  By multiple men.  They don't want to disclose that because it's just too much, those kids have already had enough of their trauma broadcast to the world.  But it happened, 100%.  Just in case you wondered how Hamas and its supporters roll.

[Brian Fantana 6,690]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

he Israeli people (by enough of a margin to let him form a government, repeatedly) supported Bibi.....and they bear responsibility for that, and the suffering it has wrought.  The Palestinians of Gaza must carry the same responsibility for their choices.  Two groups of people who, by at least a working plurality/majority, want to move forward with bloodthirsty, genocidal paths.  Lovely fucking planet we have here.

The differences, of course, being that A) a majority of the Palestinians in Gaza were either toddlers or not even alive when the "choice" was made, and B) there is only one side that will bear any consequences here. You know it and are ok with it.

[Brisketexan 105,336]

Just now, Brian Fantana said:

A) a majority of the Palestinians in Gaza were either toddlers or not even alive when the "choice" was made,

You mean the choice, made RIGHT NOW, to re-capture hostages and turn them back over to Hamas?  Read the posts above -- the citizens of Gaza are actively supporting and assisting Hamas right now, in real-time.  They have chosen to support Hamas, instead of saying "nope, their shit ain't my shit."  You want to keep looking back 17 years ago.....when there's data in real-time available for you to consider.

I don't wash Israel's hands of the consequences of the choices they've made recently, and that many continue to make (the bellicose rhetoric out of numerous right wing jackholes in Israel, including its government, is pure shit)....I don't see why the choices made at the same time by Gazans to support Hamas today, in this very conflict, should be treated any differently.

[Brian Fantana 6,690]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You mean the choice, made RIGHT NOW, to re-capture hostages and turn them back over to Hamas?  Read the posts above -- the citizens of Gaza are actively supporting and assisting Hamas right now, in real-time.  They have chosen to support Hamas, instead of saying "nope, their shit ain't my shit."  You want to keep looking back 17 years ago.....when there's data in real-time available for you to consider.

I don't wash Israel's hands of the consequences of the choices they've made recently, and that many continue to make (the bellicose rhetoric out of numerous right wing jackholes in Israel, including its government, is pure shit)....I don't see why the choices made at the same time by Gazans to support Hamas today, in this very conflict, should be treated any differently.

They shouldn't be treated any differently, but they are and will be, is my point. You and I both know only one side is going to see any real consequences from this shitstorm.

e: Not that the Israeli lives and families affected by this aren't real consequences, but you know what I mean.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Brian Fantana

[DDD Dad 14,351]

39 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

The differences, of course, being that A) a majority of the Palestinians in Gaza were either toddlers or not even alive when the "choice" was made,

And yet, by polling numbers, in 2021, "53% of Palestinians believe Hamas is “most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people,” while only 14% prefer Mahmoud Abbas’ secular Fatah party."   https://apnews.com/article/hamas-middle-east-science-32095d8e1323fc1cad819c34da08fd87

But keep fucking that chicken.

[Brian Fantana 6,690]

4 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

And yet, by polling numbers, in 2021, "53% of Palestinians believe Hamas is “most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people,” while only 14% prefer Mahmoud Abbas’ secular Fatah party."   https://apnews.com/article/hamas-middle-east-science-32095d8e1323fc1cad819c34da08fd87

But keep fucking that chicken.

Yeah I wonder what the context is behind that. Must be nothing.

[DDD Dad 14,351]

4 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Yeah I wonder what the context is behind that. Must be nothing.

The article does a pretty good job of explaining it.  Perhaps you might read it instead of knee-jerking to "Israel bad, Palestinians good"

Quote

JERUSALEM (AP) — A new poll released Tuesday finds a dramatic surge in Palestinian support for Hamas following last month’s Gaza war, with around three quarters viewing the Islamic militants as victors in a battle against Israel to defend Jerusalem and its holy sites.

The scientific poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research also found plummeting support for President Mahmoud Abbas, who was sidelined by the war but is seen internationally as a partner for reviving the long-defunct peace process.

The poll found that 53% of Palestinians believe Hamas is “most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people,” while only 14% prefer Abbas’ secular Fatah party.

Head pollster Khalil Shikaki, who has been surveying Palestinian public opinion for more than two decades, called it a “dramatic” shift, but said it also resembles previous swings toward Hamas during times of confrontation. Those all dissipated within three to six months as Hamas failed to deliver on promises of change.

The march to war began in April, when Palestinian protesters clashed with Israeli police on a nightly basis in east Jerusalem over restrictions on public gatherings during the holy month of Ramadan. The clashes eventually spread to the Al-Aqsa mosque compound, a flashpoint holy site, and were also fueled by Jewish settlers’ attempts to evict dozens of Palestinian families.

Israel captured east Jerusalem, along with the West Bank and Gaza, in the 1967 war and annexed it in a move not recognized internationally. The Palestinians want a state in all three territories, with east Jerusalem as its capital. Hamas, which is seen as a terrorist organization by Israel and Western countries, does not recognize Israel.

After warning Israel to halt the evictions and withdraw security forces from Al-Aqsa, Hamas launched a barrage of long-range rockets at Jerusalem on May 10, disrupting an annual parade by Jewish ultranationalists celebrating Israel’s conquest of east Jerusalem. That sparked an 11-day war in which more than 250 Palestinians were killed, as well as 13 people in Israel.

The poll found that 77% of Palestinians believe Hamas emerged as a winner, with nearly as many saying that it fought the war to defend Jerusalem and its holy sites, rather than as part of an internal struggle with Abbas’ Fatah party.

The pollsters held face-to-face surveys with 1,200 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza last week, with a 3 percentage point margin of error.

“Clearly, in the eyes of the public, Hamas came out as a winner,” Shikaki said, adding that it may struggle to maintain those gains as it has little control over events in Jerusalem.

An early test loomed Tuesday, when Jewish ultranationalists planned to march through east Jerusalem again. Hamas has called on Palestinians to “resist” but may be reluctant to risk another war just weeks after the last one was halted by an informal cease-fire.

The Biden administration and the international community are meanwhile looking to bolster Abbas. Hamas drove his forces out of Gaza in 2007, confining his Palestinian Authority to parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Abbas faces a major crisis of legitimacy among Palestinians after calling off the first elections in 15 years in April.

At the time, it appeared Fatah would suffer another humiliating defeat to Hamas, which won a landslide victory in 2006 parliamentary elections. But his decision, citing Israel’s refusal to grant permission for voting in east Jerusalem, also helped clear the way for Hamas to draw attention to Abbas’ weakness in the holy city.

Around two-thirds of Palestinians opposed his decision to call off the vote, the poll found. A similar number believe Abbas did so because he was worried about the results and not because Israel refused to explicitly allow voting in east Jerusalem, as he claimed.

Shikaki said Abbas could potentially regain support, but only if he shows initiative, either by reforming the PA, which is seen as increasingly corrupt and authoritarian, or by taking part in some kind of diplomatic push after a 12-year hiatus in the peace process.

“Unfortunately, so far, we are not seeing Abbas take the initiative,” Shikaki said. “We don’t see him talking to the public, he does not have a strategy, he does not have a plan. He is instead waiting... I don’t think that alone is going to work unless Hamas really fails miserably.”

Oh, and here's another more recent article on another poll reflecting considerable Hamas support among Palestinians:

https://pcpsr.org/en/node/938

Quote

The findings of the first quarter of 2023 indicate that the internal factional balance of power remains unchanged, with parity between Fatah and Hamas, if new parliamentary elections were to take place today, and a majority vote for Hamas’ candidate, Ismail Haniyyeh, over Mahmud Abbas in presidential elections. Satisfaction with president Abbas drops four percentage points and the demand for resignation increases by two points.

Public evaluation of internal conditions points to a greater deterioration in the standing of the PA and a significant loss of trust in it. Findings show a rise in the belief that the PA is now a burden on the Palestinian people and for the first time in our polls, a majority supports the dissolution of the PA and views its collapse as an interest for the Palestinian people. In fact, a majority thinks that the continued existence of the PA serves the interests of Israel and that its dissolution or collapse would strengthen Palestinian armed groups.

The declining status of the PA can also be seen in the vast public support, standing at about two-thirds in the West Bank, for the strike of the West Bank teachers in public schools and the belief of about 80% or more of the public that the current PA government will fail in conducting elections, reunifying the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, or improving economic conditions. Loss of trust in the PA can be seen in the overwhelming opposition to the PA’s imposition of a one-Shekel tax on the telecommunication bill to support East Jerusalem. On top of that opposition, about 80% say the money will not really go to East Jerusalemites.

Findings of the current quarter point a significant decline in the support for the two-state solution accompanied by an increase in the percentage of those who think this solution is no longer practical or feasible due to settlement expansion. Furthermore, the public expresses widespread pessimism about the ability of international organizations and the international community, including the US, the EU, and the Arab states, to impose sanctions on the current Israeli government to pressure it to change its settlement policy or its violations of international law.

In light of all that, findings show a rise in the percentage of those who support a return to armed confrontation and intifada. In fact, 70% of West Bankers expect the eruption of a third armed intifada. Moreover, more than 70% declare support for the latest Huwara shooting attack against settlers; two thirds support the formation of armed groups, such as the Jenin Battalion or the Lions’ Den; and almost all express the view that the PA security services should not arrest or disarm members of these groups. More than 60% of the West Bankers believe that members of these armed groups will resist with arms any attempt by the PA security services to disarm or arrest them. Public support for armed resistance is further confirmed by overwhelming opposition to the Palestinian participation in the Aqaba meeting. Almost all Palestinians think Israel will not honor its commitments in that meeting. A large majority, standing at 70%, think Israeli counter measures, which are meant to punish those who commit armed attacks or their families, such as home demolition, expulsion, or the imposition of the death penalty, will only lead to an increase in the intensity of such attacks.  

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by DDD Dad

[Brian Fantana 6,690]

Just now, DDD Dad said:

The article does a pretty good job of explaining it.  Perhaps you might read it instead of knee-jerking to "Israel bad, Palestinians good"

 

Brother, I'm well aware of what happened in mid-2021. My point was it's not a surprise than an incumbent ruling body experiences a surge of support in the wake of a crisis like that. It happens all the time, even if the ruling body is dogass. Not always, of course, but it happens.

I'm not disagreeing that Hamas support within Gaza among civilians is a problem, I just disagree that it justifies murdering them en masse.

[DDD Dad 14,351]

3 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Brother, I'm well aware of what happened in mid-2021. My point was it's not a surprise than an incumbent ruling body experiences a surge of support in the wake of a crisis like that. It happens all the time, even if the ruling body is dogass. Not always, of course, but it happens.

I'm not disagreeing that Hamas support within Gaza among civilians is a problem, I just disagree that it justifies murdering them en masse.

In March of 2023 (in the more recent poll I posted), 61 percent of Gazans would support the Hamas candidate for president over Abbas.  That's two years removed from the events of 2021 and only a few months ago.

I do not support mass killings of civilians of any nationality, FWIW.  And, Hamas support within Gaza is more than just "a problem."  it could well be THE problem.

Edited November 29, 2023 by DDD Dad

[Brian Fantana 6,690]

4 minutes ago, MisterP said:

I hope anastasia and brian fanfuckface get fucked in the ass with a spiked bat

Something the palestinians would gladly do

Waiting for brisket to like this post

[DDD Dad 14,351]

2 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Waiting for brisket to like this post

There's a world of difference between your posts and Ana's in this thread.  I think yours are genuine and earnest, despite our differences in opinion.  

[Anastasis 23,485]

29 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

And yet, by polling numbers, in 2021, "53% of Palestinians believe Hamas is “most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people,” while only 14% prefer Mahmoud Abbas’ secular Fatah party."   https://apnews.com/article/hamas-middle-east-science-32095d8e1323fc1cad819c34da08fd87

But keep fucking that chicken.

Here is a poll from 2023, immediately prior to Oct. 7th. Full text behind the tags, with broader discussion and details. 

 

 

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/what-palestinians-really-think-hamas?

What Palestinians Really Think of Hamas

Before the War, Gaza’s Leaders Were Deeply Unpopular—but an Israeli Crackdown Could Change That

By Amaney A. Jamal and Michael Robbins

October 25, 2023

Spoiler

Palestinians protesting in support of the people of Gaza, Hebron, West Bank, October 2023

Mussa Qawasma / Reuters

Since Hamas’s atrocious attacks on October 7 left more than 1,400 Israelis dead in a single day, Israel’s response has exacted a heavy toll on the population of Gaza. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, so far more than 6,000 Gazans have been killed and more than 17,000 injured in Israel’s aerial bombardment. The casualties could quickly climb much higher if Israel goes ahead with its expected ground invasion. Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Knesset member Ariel Kallner, and other prominent officials have called for a military campaign that covers the entire territory of Gaza. Israeli missiles have already destroyed around five percent of all buildings in Gaza, including in areas where Palestinians sought shelter after heeding Israeli calls to evacuate their homes. Some of Israel’s top officials, invoking Hamas’s success in the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections, have in effect declared that all Gazans are part of Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure and complicit in the group’s atrocities—and are therefore legitimate targets of Israeli retaliation.

The argument that the entire population of Gaza can be held responsible for Hamas’s actions is quickly discredited when one looks at the facts. Arab Barometer, a research network where we serve as co-principal investigators, conducted a survey in Gaza and the West Bank days before the Israel-Hamas war broke out. The findings, published here for the first time, reveal that rather than supporting Hamas, the vast majority of Gazans have been frustrated with the armed group’s ineffective governance as they endure extreme economic hardship. Most Gazans do not align themselves with Hamas’s ideology, either. Unlike Hamas, whose goal is to destroy the Israeli state, the majority of survey respondents favored a two-state solution with an independent Palestine and Israel existing side by side.

Continued violence will not bring the future most Gazans hope for any closer. Instead of stamping out sympathy for terrorism, past Israeli crackdowns that make life more difficult for ordinary Gazans have increased support for Hamas. If the current military campaign in Gaza has a similar effect on Palestinian public opinion, it will further set back the cause of long-term peace.

 

MOUNTING FRUSTRATION

Arab Barometer’s survey of the West Bank and Gaza, conducted in partnership with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and with the support of the National Endowment for Democracy, provides a snapshot of the views of ordinary citizens on the eve of the latest conflict. The longest-running and most comprehensive public opinion project in the region, Arab Barometer has run eight waves of surveys covering 16 countries in the Middle East and North Africa since 2006. All surveys are designed to be nationally representative, most of them (including the latest survey in the West Bank and Gaza) are conducted in face-to-face interviews in the respondents’ places of residence, and the collected data is made publicly available. In each country, survey questions aim to measure respondents’ attitudes and values about a variety of economic, political, and international issues.    

Our most recent interviews were carried out between September 28 and October 8, surveying 790 respondents in the West Bank and 399 in Gaza. (Interviews in Gaza were completed on October 6.) The survey’s findings reveal that Gazans had very little confidence in their Hamas-led government. Asked to identify the amount of trust they had in the Hamas authorities, a plurality of respondents (44 percent) said they had no trust at all; “not a lot of trust” was the second most common response, at 23 percent. Only 29 percent of Gazans expressed either “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of trust in their government. Furthermore, 72 percent said there was a large (34 percent) or medium (38 percent) amount of corruption in government institutions, and a minority thought the government was taking meaningful steps to address the problem.

When asked how they would vote if presidential elections were held in Gaza and the ballot featured Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, and Marwan Barghouti, an imprisoned member of the central committee of Fatah, the party led by Abbas, only 24 percent of respondents said they would vote for Haniyeh. Barghouti received the largest share of support at 32 percent and Abbas received 12 percent. Thirty percent of respondents said they would not participate. Gazans’ opinions of the PA, which governs the West Bank, are not much better. A slight majority (52 percent) believe the PA is a burden on the Palestinian people, and 67 percent would like to see Abbas resign. The people of Gaza are disillusioned not only with Hamas but with the entire Palestinian leadership.

The salience of Gaza’s economic troubles also came through clearly in the survey results. According to the World Bank, the poverty rate in Gaza rose from 39 percent in 2011 to 59 percent in 2021. Many Gazans have struggled to secure basic necessities because of both scarcity and cost. Among survey respondents, 78 percent said that the availability of food was a moderate or severe problem in Gaza, whereas just five percent said it was not a problem at all. A similar proportion (75 percent) reported moderate to severe difficulty affording food even when it was available; only six percent said food affordability was not a problem.

Gazan households have felt the impact of food shortages keenly. Seventy-five percent of respondents reported that they had run out of food and lacked the money to buy more at some point during the previous 30 days. By comparison, in a 2021 Arab Barometer survey, only 51 percent said the same. This change over just two years is alarming. Gazans have been forced to adjust their habits to try to make ends meet, with 75 percent saying they had started buying less preferred or less expensive food and 69 percent saying they had reduced the size of their meals.

Most Gazans attributed the lack of food to internal problems rather than to external sanctions. Israel and Egypt have imposed a blockade on Gaza since 2005, limiting the flow of people and goods into and out of the territory. The strength of the blockade has varied, but it grew notably stricter after Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. Nevertheless, a plurality of survey respondents (31 percent) identified government mismanagement as the primary cause of food insecurity in Gaza and 26 percent blamed inflation. Only 16 percent blamed externally imposed economic sanctions. In short, Gazans were more likely to blame their material predicament on Hamas’s leadership than on Israel’s economic blockade. Since the time of the survey, however, this perception may have changed. Israel cut off water, food, fuel, and electricity supplies to Gaza following the October 7 attacks, plunging the territory into a deep humanitarian crisis. Some international aid has entered Gaza since, but the suffering the Palestinians have experienced has likely hardened their attitudes in ways that could undermine long-term peace and stability.

NO MORE POLITICS AS USUAL

Overall, the survey responses indicate that Gazans desire political change. In an eight-point decline since 2021, just 26 percent said the government was very (three percent) or largely (23 percent) responsive to the needs of the people. When asked what is the most effective way for ordinary people to influence the government, a plurality said “nothing is effective.” The next most popular answer was to use personal connections to reach a government official. Most Gazans saw no avenue for publicly expressing their grievances with the Hamas-led government. Only 40 percent said that freedom of expression was guaranteed to a great or moderate extent, and 68 percent believed that the right to participate in a peaceful protest was not protected or was protected only to a limited extent under Hamas rule.

About half of Gazans expressed support for democracy: 48 percent affirmed that “democracy is always preferable to any other kind of government.” A smaller proportion of respondents (23 percent) indicated a lack of faith in any type of regime, agreeing with the statement, “For people like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have.” Only 26 percent agreed that “under some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable.” (This last finding is similar to poll results in the United States, where in a 2022 survey, one in five adults aged 41 or younger agreed with the statement, “Dictatorship could be good in certain circumstances.”)

Given the low opinion most Gazans hold of their government, it is unsurprising that their disapproval extends to Hamas as a political party. Just 27 percent of respondents selected Hamas as their preferred party, slightly less than the proportion who favored Fatah (30 percent), the party that is led by Abbas and that governs the West Bank. Hamas’s popularity in Gaza has slipped as well, falling from 34 percent support in the 2021 survey. There is notable demographic variation in the recent responses, too. Thirty-three percent of adults under 30 expressed support for Hamas, compared with 23 percent of those 30 and older. And poorer Gazans were less likely than their wealthier counterparts to support Hamas. Among those who cannot cover their basic expenses, just 25 percent favored the party in power. Among those who can, the figure rose to 33 percent. The fact that the people most affected by dire economic conditions and those who remember life before Hamas rule were more likely to reject the party underlines the limits of Gazans’ support for Hamas’s movement.

VISIONS FOR THE FUTURE

Leadership style is not the only thing Gazans find objectionable about Hamas. By and large, Gazans do not share Hamas’s goal of eliminating the state of Israel. When presented with three possible solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (as well as an option to choose “other”), the majority of survey respondents (54 percent) favored the two-state solution outlined in the 1993 Oslo accords. In this scenario, the state of Palestine would sit alongside the state of Israel, their borders based on the de facto boundary that existed before the 1967 Six-Day War. The level of support for this resolution has not changed much since 2021; in that survey, 58 percent of respondents in Gaza selected the two-state solution.

It is somewhat surprising how little traction alternative political arrangements had gained among Gazans before the onset of recent hostilities, given how implausible a two-state solution now seems. The survey presented two other options: an Israeli-Palestinian confederation—in which both states are independent but remain deeply linked and permit the free movement of citizens—and a single state for both Jews and Arabs. These garnered 10 percent and nine percent support, respectively.

Overall, 73 percent of Gazans favored a peaceful settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the eve of Hamas’s October 7 attack, just 20 percent of Gazans favored a military solution that could result in the destruction of the state of Israel. A clear majority (77 percent) of those who provided this response were also supporters of Hamas, amounting to around 15 percent of the adult population. Among the remaining respondents who favored armed action, 13 percent reported no political affiliation.

By and large, Gazans do not share Hamas’s goal of eliminating the state of Israel.

Gazans’ views on the normalization of relations between Arab states and Israel, meanwhile, have been consistently negative. Only 10 percent expressed approval of this initiative in the most recent survey—the same percentage as in 2021. Many Gazans likely recognize that Arab solidarity is key to securing a political arrangement that includes an independent Palestinian state. If Arab countries were to settle their differences with Israel without making the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a precondition for normalization, any lingering hopes for a two-state solution would evaporate.

Before Hamas’s attack on Israel, Gazans’ foreign policy views suggested both alignment with certain U.S. policy priorities and mistrust of the United States. Seventy-one percent opposed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Twenty-six percent expressed a wish for Gaza to develop stronger economic ties to the United States—slightly lower than the proportion that wanted to deepen economic relations with Iran or Russia (32 percent in both cases). Only 15 percent of Gazans, however, believed that U.S. President Joe Biden’s policies had been good or very good for the Arab world. And in the past few weeks, approval of both Biden and the United States has certainly declined, given the broad perception in Gaza, the West Bank, and in the region’s Arab countries that Washington has come to the aid of Israel at the expense of Gaza.

A final finding—now backed by countless media reports of Gazans’ anguish as escalating violence forces them to flee their homes—is the strength of people’s connection to the land on which they live. The vast majority of Gazans surveyed—69 percent—said they have never considered leaving their homeland. This is a higher proportion than residents of Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia who were asked the same question. (For all of these countries, the most recent available data comes from Arab Barometer’s 2021–22 survey wave.) Gazans face a series of challenges, from a worsening economic crisis to an unresponsive government and a seemingly impossible path to independent statehood, but they are steadfast in their desire to remain in Gaza.

BREAK THE CYCLE

The results of the Arab Barometer survey paint a bleak picture of Gaza in the days before the October 7 attacks. The Hamas government, unable to address citizens’ vital concerns, had lost the public’s confidence. Few Gazans supported Hamas’s goal of destroying the state of Israel, which left Gaza’s leaders and its population divided over the future direction of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The vast majority of Gazans strongly favored a peaceful solution, and they yearned for leaders who could both deliver such a solution and improve Gazans’ overall quality of life. So far, however, the policies of their own government and of the Israeli government have prevented progress on both fronts.

Living conditions for Palestinians are better in the West Bank than they are in Gaza, but the economic and political situation is still grim. Nearly half of survey respondents in the West Bank (47 percent) reported going hungry in the last month, and just 19 percent trusted the West Bank government led by Fatah—an even lower percentage than that of Gazans who trusted Hamas’s government. Yet governance failures have not driven West Bank Palestinians to back Hamas. When asked which party they feel closest to, just 17 percent of respondents in the West Bank reported support for Hamas. The amount of support for Fatah was the same as in Gaza (30 percent). With regard to individual leaders, however, the responses of West Bank residents reflected widespread disaffection—and particular dissatisfaction with Abbas. In a hypothetical presidential election, Barghouti was their top choice, as he was in Gaza, at 35 percent, while only 11 percent picked Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, and six percent chose Abbas, the incumbent leader in the West Bank. Nearly half of respondents—47 percent—said they would not participate.

In terms of attitudes toward the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, support for the two-state solution in the West Bank was slightly lower than in Gaza (49 percent versus 54 percent), and opposition to Arab-Israeli normalization was slightly higher. Only five percent of respondents in the West Bank approved of the regional rapprochement, compared with 10 percent of Gazans. Although the differences were small, these relatively hardened attitudes in the West Bank were likely a result of tensions between Palestinians and Israeli settlers and soldiers in recent months. The survey’s finding that roughly half of Palestinians still support the two-state solution may offer some hope for peace in the long term, but the results do not inspire much confidence in short-term stability. The deep unpopularity of Palestinian leadership, in the West Bank in particular, calls into question the feasibility of reestablishing the Palestinian Authority’s control over Gaza, which some media outlets have suggested as the next step in reconstruction after Israel’s military campaign against Hamas is complete.

The Israeli government must now exercise restraint.

As Israel’s operations in Gaza escalate, the war will take an unfathomable toll on civilians. But even if Israel were to “level Gaza,” as some hawkish politicians in the United States have called for, it would fail in its mission to wipe out Hamas. Our research has shown that Israeli crackdowns in Gaza most often lead to increasing support and sympathy for Hamas among ordinary Gazans. Hamas won 44.5 percent of the Palestinian vote in parliamentary elections in 2006, but support for the group plummeted after a military conflict between Hamas and Fatah in June 2007 ended in Hamas’s takeover of Gaza. In a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in December 2007, just 24 percent of Gazans expressed favorable attitudes toward Hamas. Over the next few years, as Israel tightened its blockade of Gaza and ordinary Gazans felt the effects, approval of Hamas increased, reaching about 40 percent in 2010. Israel partially eased the blockade the same year, and Hamas’s support in Gaza leveled off before declining to 35 percent in 2014. In periods when Israel cracks down on Gaza, Hamas’s hardline ideology seems to hold greater appeal for Gazans. Thus, rather than moving the Israelis and Palestinians toward a peaceful solution, Israeli policies that inflict pain on Gaza in the name of rooting out Hamas are likely to perpetuate the cycle of violence.

To break the cycle, the Israeli government must now exercise restraint. The Hamas-led government may be uninterested in peace, but it is empirically wrong for Israeli political leaders to accuse all Gazans of the same. In fact, most Gazans are open to a permanent, peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Yet the views of the people who live in Gaza are still often misrepresented in public discourse, even as surveys such as Arab Barometer consistently show how different these narratives are from reality.

In the immediate term, Israeli and especially U.S. leaders need to secure the safety of Gazan civilians, 1.4 million of whom have already been displaced. The United States should partner with the United Nations to create clear humanitarian corridors and protected zones, and Washington should contribute to the UN’s appeal for $300 million in aid to protect Palestinian civilians—a step dozens of U.S. senators have said they will support. Finally, Israel and the United States must recognize that the Palestinian people are essential partners in finding a lasting political settlement, not an obstacle in the way of that worthy goal. If the two countries seek only military solutions, they will likely drive Gazans into the arms of Hamas, guaranteeing renewed violence in the years ahead.

 

[DDD Dad 14,351]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Here is a poll from 2023, immediately prior to Oct. 7th. Full text behind the tags, with broader discussion and details. 

 

 

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/what-palestinians-really-think-hamas?

What Palestinians Really Think of Hamas

Before the War, Gaza’s Leaders Were Deeply Unpopular—but an Israeli Crackdown Could Change That

By Amaney A. Jamal and Michael Robbins

October 25, 2023

  Hide contents

Palestinians protesting in support of the people of Gaza, Hebron, West Bank, October 2023

Mussa Qawasma / Reuters

Since Hamas’s atrocious attacks on October 7 left more than 1,400 Israelis dead in a single day, Israel’s response has exacted a heavy toll on the population of Gaza. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, so far more than 6,000 Gazans have been killed and more than 17,000 injured in Israel’s aerial bombardment. The casualties could quickly climb much higher if Israel goes ahead with its expected ground invasion. Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Knesset member Ariel Kallner, and other prominent officials have called for a military campaign that covers the entire territory of Gaza. Israeli missiles have already destroyed around five percent of all buildings in Gaza, including in areas where Palestinians sought shelter after heeding Israeli calls to evacuate their homes. Some of Israel’s top officials, invoking Hamas’s success in the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections, have in effect declared that all Gazans are part of Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure and complicit in the group’s atrocities—and are therefore legitimate targets of Israeli retaliation.

The argument that the entire population of Gaza can be held responsible for Hamas’s actions is quickly discredited when one looks at the facts. Arab Barometer, a research network where we serve as co-principal investigators, conducted a survey in Gaza and the West Bank days before the Israel-Hamas war broke out. The findings, published here for the first time, reveal that rather than supporting Hamas, the vast majority of Gazans have been frustrated with the armed group’s ineffective governance as they endure extreme economic hardship. Most Gazans do not align themselves with Hamas’s ideology, either. Unlike Hamas, whose goal is to destroy the Israeli state, the majority of survey respondents favored a two-state solution with an independent Palestine and Israel existing side by side.

Continued violence will not bring the future most Gazans hope for any closer. Instead of stamping out sympathy for terrorism, past Israeli crackdowns that make life more difficult for ordinary Gazans have increased support for Hamas. If the current military campaign in Gaza has a similar effect on Palestinian public opinion, it will further set back the cause of long-term peace.

 

MOUNTING FRUSTRATION

Arab Barometer’s survey of the West Bank and Gaza, conducted in partnership with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and with the support of the National Endowment for Democracy, provides a snapshot of the views of ordinary citizens on the eve of the latest conflict. The longest-running and most comprehensive public opinion project in the region, Arab Barometer has run eight waves of surveys covering 16 countries in the Middle East and North Africa since 2006. All surveys are designed to be nationally representative, most of them (including the latest survey in the West Bank and Gaza) are conducted in face-to-face interviews in the respondents’ places of residence, and the collected data is made publicly available. In each country, survey questions aim to measure respondents’ attitudes and values about a variety of economic, political, and international issues.    

Our most recent interviews were carried out between September 28 and October 8, surveying 790 respondents in the West Bank and 399 in Gaza. (Interviews in Gaza were completed on October 6.) The survey’s findings reveal that Gazans had very little confidence in their Hamas-led government. Asked to identify the amount of trust they had in the Hamas authorities, a plurality of respondents (44 percent) said they had no trust at all; “not a lot of trust” was the second most common response, at 23 percent. Only 29 percent of Gazans expressed either “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of trust in their government. Furthermore, 72 percent said there was a large (34 percent) or medium (38 percent) amount of corruption in government institutions, and a minority thought the government was taking meaningful steps to address the problem.

When asked how they would vote if presidential elections were held in Gaza and the ballot featured Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, and Marwan Barghouti, an imprisoned member of the central committee of Fatah, the party led by Abbas, only 24 percent of respondents said they would vote for Haniyeh. Barghouti received the largest share of support at 32 percent and Abbas received 12 percent. Thirty percent of respondents said they would not participate. Gazans’ opinions of the PA, which governs the West Bank, are not much better. A slight majority (52 percent) believe the PA is a burden on the Palestinian people, and 67 percent would like to see Abbas resign. The people of Gaza are disillusioned not only with Hamas but with the entire Palestinian leadership.

The salience of Gaza’s economic troubles also came through clearly in the survey results. According to the World Bank, the poverty rate in Gaza rose from 39 percent in 2011 to 59 percent in 2021. Many Gazans have struggled to secure basic necessities because of both scarcity and cost. Among survey respondents, 78 percent said that the availability of food was a moderate or severe problem in Gaza, whereas just five percent said it was not a problem at all. A similar proportion (75 percent) reported moderate to severe difficulty affording food even when it was available; only six percent said food affordability was not a problem.

Gazan households have felt the impact of food shortages keenly. Seventy-five percent of respondents reported that they had run out of food and lacked the money to buy more at some point during the previous 30 days. By comparison, in a 2021 Arab Barometer survey, only 51 percent said the same. This change over just two years is alarming. Gazans have been forced to adjust their habits to try to make ends meet, with 75 percent saying they had started buying less preferred or less expensive food and 69 percent saying they had reduced the size of their meals.

Most Gazans attributed the lack of food to internal problems rather than to external sanctions. Israel and Egypt have imposed a blockade on Gaza since 2005, limiting the flow of people and goods into and out of the territory. The strength of the blockade has varied, but it grew notably stricter after Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. Nevertheless, a plurality of survey respondents (31 percent) identified government mismanagement as the primary cause of food insecurity in Gaza and 26 percent blamed inflation. Only 16 percent blamed externally imposed economic sanctions. In short, Gazans were more likely to blame their material predicament on Hamas’s leadership than on Israel’s economic blockade. Since the time of the survey, however, this perception may have changed. Israel cut off water, food, fuel, and electricity supplies to Gaza following the October 7 attacks, plunging the territory into a deep humanitarian crisis. Some international aid has entered Gaza since, but the suffering the Palestinians have experienced has likely hardened their attitudes in ways that could undermine long-term peace and stability.

NO MORE POLITICS AS USUAL

Overall, the survey responses indicate that Gazans desire political change. In an eight-point decline since 2021, just 26 percent said the government was very (three percent) or largely (23 percent) responsive to the needs of the people. When asked what is the most effective way for ordinary people to influence the government, a plurality said “nothing is effective.” The next most popular answer was to use personal connections to reach a government official. Most Gazans saw no avenue for publicly expressing their grievances with the Hamas-led government. Only 40 percent said that freedom of expression was guaranteed to a great or moderate extent, and 68 percent believed that the right to participate in a peaceful protest was not protected or was protected only to a limited extent under Hamas rule.

About half of Gazans expressed support for democracy: 48 percent affirmed that “democracy is always preferable to any other kind of government.” A smaller proportion of respondents (23 percent) indicated a lack of faith in any type of regime, agreeing with the statement, “For people like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have.” Only 26 percent agreed that “under some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable.” (This last finding is similar to poll results in the United States, where in a 2022 survey, one in five adults aged 41 or younger agreed with the statement, “Dictatorship could be good in certain circumstances.”)

Given the low opinion most Gazans hold of their government, it is unsurprising that their disapproval extends to Hamas as a political party. Just 27 percent of respondents selected Hamas as their preferred party, slightly less than the proportion who favored Fatah (30 percent), the party that is led by Abbas and that governs the West Bank. Hamas’s popularity in Gaza has slipped as well, falling from 34 percent support in the 2021 survey. There is notable demographic variation in the recent responses, too. Thirty-three percent of adults under 30 expressed support for Hamas, compared with 23 percent of those 30 and older. And poorer Gazans were less likely than their wealthier counterparts to support Hamas. Among those who cannot cover their basic expenses, just 25 percent favored the party in power. Among those who can, the figure rose to 33 percent. The fact that the people most affected by dire economic conditions and those who remember life before Hamas rule were more likely to reject the party underlines the limits of Gazans’ support for Hamas’s movement.

VISIONS FOR THE FUTURE

Leadership style is not the only thing Gazans find objectionable about Hamas. By and large, Gazans do not share Hamas’s goal of eliminating the state of Israel. When presented with three possible solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (as well as an option to choose “other”), the majority of survey respondents (54 percent) favored the two-state solution outlined in the 1993 Oslo accords. In this scenario, the state of Palestine would sit alongside the state of Israel, their borders based on the de facto boundary that existed before the 1967 Six-Day War. The level of support for this resolution has not changed much since 2021; in that survey, 58 percent of respondents in Gaza selected the two-state solution.

It is somewhat surprising how little traction alternative political arrangements had gained among Gazans before the onset of recent hostilities, given how implausible a two-state solution now seems. The survey presented two other options: an Israeli-Palestinian confederation—in which both states are independent but remain deeply linked and permit the free movement of citizens—and a single state for both Jews and Arabs. These garnered 10 percent and nine percent support, respectively.

Overall, 73 percent of Gazans favored a peaceful settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the eve of Hamas’s October 7 attack, just 20 percent of Gazans favored a military solution that could result in the destruction of the state of Israel. A clear majority (77 percent) of those who provided this response were also supporters of Hamas, amounting to around 15 percent of the adult population. Among the remaining respondents who favored armed action, 13 percent reported no political affiliation.

By and large, Gazans do not share Hamas’s goal of eliminating the state of Israel.

Gazans’ views on the normalization of relations between Arab states and Israel, meanwhile, have been consistently negative. Only 10 percent expressed approval of this initiative in the most recent survey—the same percentage as in 2021. Many Gazans likely recognize that Arab solidarity is key to securing a political arrangement that includes an independent Palestinian state. If Arab countries were to settle their differences with Israel without making the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a precondition for normalization, any lingering hopes for a two-state solution would evaporate.

Before Hamas’s attack on Israel, Gazans’ foreign policy views suggested both alignment with certain U.S. policy priorities and mistrust of the United States. Seventy-one percent opposed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Twenty-six percent expressed a wish for Gaza to develop stronger economic ties to the United States—slightly lower than the proportion that wanted to deepen economic relations with Iran or Russia (32 percent in both cases). Only 15 percent of Gazans, however, believed that U.S. President Joe Biden’s policies had been good or very good for the Arab world. And in the past few weeks, approval of both Biden and the United States has certainly declined, given the broad perception in Gaza, the West Bank, and in the region’s Arab countries that Washington has come to the aid of Israel at the expense of Gaza.

A final finding—now backed by countless media reports of Gazans’ anguish as escalating violence forces them to flee their homes—is the strength of people’s connection to the land on which they live. The vast majority of Gazans surveyed—69 percent—said they have never considered leaving their homeland. This is a higher proportion than residents of Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia who were asked the same question. (For all of these countries, the most recent available data comes from Arab Barometer’s 2021–22 survey wave.) Gazans face a series of challenges, from a worsening economic crisis to an unresponsive government and a seemingly impossible path to independent statehood, but they are steadfast in their desire to remain in Gaza.

BREAK THE CYCLE

The results of the Arab Barometer survey paint a bleak picture of Gaza in the days before the October 7 attacks. The Hamas government, unable to address citizens’ vital concerns, had lost the public’s confidence. Few Gazans supported Hamas’s goal of destroying the state of Israel, which left Gaza’s leaders and its population divided over the future direction of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The vast majority of Gazans strongly favored a peaceful solution, and they yearned for leaders who could both deliver such a solution and improve Gazans’ overall quality of life. So far, however, the policies of their own government and of the Israeli government have prevented progress on both fronts.

Living conditions for Palestinians are better in the West Bank than they are in Gaza, but the economic and political situation is still grim. Nearly half of survey respondents in the West Bank (47 percent) reported going hungry in the last month, and just 19 percent trusted the West Bank government led by Fatah—an even lower percentage than that of Gazans who trusted Hamas’s government. Yet governance failures have not driven West Bank Palestinians to back Hamas. When asked which party they feel closest to, just 17 percent of respondents in the West Bank reported support for Hamas. The amount of support for Fatah was the same as in Gaza (30 percent). With regard to individual leaders, however, the responses of West Bank residents reflected widespread disaffection—and particular dissatisfaction with Abbas. In a hypothetical presidential election, Barghouti was their top choice, as he was in Gaza, at 35 percent, while only 11 percent picked Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, and six percent chose Abbas, the incumbent leader in the West Bank. Nearly half of respondents—47 percent—said they would not participate.

In terms of attitudes toward the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, support for the two-state solution in the West Bank was slightly lower than in Gaza (49 percent versus 54 percent), and opposition to Arab-Israeli normalization was slightly higher. Only five percent of respondents in the West Bank approved of the regional rapprochement, compared with 10 percent of Gazans. Although the differences were small, these relatively hardened attitudes in the West Bank were likely a result of tensions between Palestinians and Israeli settlers and soldiers in recent months. The survey’s finding that roughly half of Palestinians still support the two-state solution may offer some hope for peace in the long term, but the results do not inspire much confidence in short-term stability. The deep unpopularity of Palestinian leadership, in the West Bank in particular, calls into question the feasibility of reestablishing the Palestinian Authority’s control over Gaza, which some media outlets have suggested as the next step in reconstruction after Israel’s military campaign against Hamas is complete.

The Israeli government must now exercise restraint.

As Israel’s operations in Gaza escalate, the war will take an unfathomable toll on civilians. But even if Israel were to “level Gaza,” as some hawkish politicians in the United States have called for, it would fail in its mission to wipe out Hamas. Our research has shown that Israeli crackdowns in Gaza most often lead to increasing support and sympathy for Hamas among ordinary Gazans. Hamas won 44.5 percent of the Palestinian vote in parliamentary elections in 2006, but support for the group plummeted after a military conflict between Hamas and Fatah in June 2007 ended in Hamas’s takeover of Gaza. In a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in December 2007, just 24 percent of Gazans expressed favorable attitudes toward Hamas. Over the next few years, as Israel tightened its blockade of Gaza and ordinary Gazans felt the effects, approval of Hamas increased, reaching about 40 percent in 2010. Israel partially eased the blockade the same year, and Hamas’s support in Gaza leveled off before declining to 35 percent in 2014. In periods when Israel cracks down on Gaza, Hamas’s hardline ideology seems to hold greater appeal for Gazans. Thus, rather than moving the Israelis and Palestinians toward a peaceful solution, Israeli policies that inflict pain on Gaza in the name of rooting out Hamas are likely to perpetuate the cycle of violence.

To break the cycle, the Israeli government must now exercise restraint. The Hamas-led government may be uninterested in peace, but it is empirically wrong for Israeli political leaders to accuse all Gazans of the same. In fact, most Gazans are open to a permanent, peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Yet the views of the people who live in Gaza are still often misrepresented in public discourse, even as surveys such as Arab Barometer consistently show how different these narratives are from reality.

In the immediate term, Israeli and especially U.S. leaders need to secure the safety of Gazan civilians, 1.4 million of whom have already been displaced. The United States should partner with the United Nations to create clear humanitarian corridors and protected zones, and Washington should contribute to the UN’s appeal for $300 million in aid to protect Palestinian civilians—a step dozens of U.S. senators have said they will support. Finally, Israel and the United States must recognize that the Palestinian people are essential partners in finding a lasting political settlement, not an obstacle in the way of that worthy goal. If the two countries seek only military solutions, they will likely drive Gazans into the arms of Hamas, guaranteeing renewed violence in the years ahead.

 

I certainly do not ascribe to "the argument that the entire population of Gaza can be held responsible for Hamas’s actions."

[Anastasis 23,485]

28 minutes ago, MisterP said:

I hope anastasia and brian fanfuckface get fucked in the ass with a spiked bat

Well that's not nice. 

[DDD Dad 14,351]

35 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Well that's not nice. 

Agreed. There’s no reason for that sort of thing. Even here on Surly. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by DDD Dad

[Anastasis 23,485]

15 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Agreed. There’s no reason for that sort of thing. Even here on Surly. 

Agreed. But while we are the topic of forced sodomy in the occupied territories, this may be where MisterP learned it from.  Were you IDF MisterP? 

https://www.dci-palestine.org/jerusalem_child_threatened_with_sodomy_placed_under_house_arrest

Ramallah, March 21, 2014—A boy from East Jerusalem who signed a confession after Israeli interrogators threatened him with sodomy spent over two months under house arrest.

Othman S, 14, was summoned for interrogation by Israeli intelligence in the early hours of November 25, 2013 and accused of throwing stones and Molotov cocktails near the Israeli Rockefeller Museum in East Jerusalem.

In a sworn affidavit given to DCI-Palestine, Othman says he was forced to stand face to the wall with his hands tied for about two hours and strip-searched before being interrogated.

During the interrogation, an intelligence officer accused him of throwing a stone and then a Molotov cocktail at a police car and, when Othman would not confess, the officer threatened to sodomize him.

“(The interrogator) then brought a broomstick, about 1.5 meters (6 feet) long, from one of the corners and threatened to shove it up my bottom,” Othman said, adding that the interrogator said to him: “You want me to shove this stick up your ass so you’ll feel pain and tell me the truth?”

The interrogator also insulted Othman’s mother and sister and warned him that he would “demolish my home if I did not talk,” he said.

Scared and alone, Othman confessed under duress.

“I was crying. I said everything against my will. I was scared of them. I was scared they might beat me and demolish our house,” Othman told DCI-Palestine.

There were at least 31 cases of child detention in East Jerusalem in 2012. Of those, 97 percent experienced physical abuse and 90 percent were subjected to intimidation and humiliation, according to DCI-Palestine statistics.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Anastasis

[956 Worldwide 34,772]

Here again to point out that there is nothing reassuring about the Foreign Affairs polling data. Over thirty percent of Palestinians respond that they most identify with either Hamas or its more extreme cousin Palestinian Islamic Jihad and that is utterly horrifying.  We need only to write “thirty percent of Americans respond they they most identify with the Ku Klux Klan or the New National Democratic Socialist Party” to contextualize how stupid it is to cite these figures as “modest support.” 
 

Likewise, expressing a low amount of trust in Hamas is not reassuring without more context as well. Plenty of American voters don’t trust the GOP or Democratic Party because they want those entities to be more uncompromising and strident and it’s safe to assume there’s a contingent of disaffected Hamas supporters who weren’t really happy with them till they walked the walk on October 7. 
 

And finally the worst part of it all is that there is simply a non-existent movement advocating for the things so many “decolonialists” in the West say they want.  Palestinian society has stubbornly refused to birth a genuinely tolerant, Liberal, secular political movement and we have to assume that the appetite for one just doesn’t exist. 

So the facts are these— a minority but extremely large and powerful bloc of Palestinian society explicitly aligns with violent, intolerant religious extremism and reports that this ideology best represents their political alignment and there is no truly humane and tolerant alternative to promote or deal with. 
 

That doesn’t justify the mass purposeful killing of civilians, even though many of those civilians really want someone to come along and mass murder you and your nation, but it should help frame the realities of what there is to work with. 

[Brisketexan 105,336]

38 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So the facts are these— a minority but extremely large and powerful bloc of Palestinian society explicitly aligns with violent, intolerant religious extremism and reports that this ideology best represents their political alignment and there is no truly humane and tolerant alternative to promote or deal with. 

I would also offer that the same is true of Israeli society.   Which is the main fucking problem -- you have two societies where violent genocidal assholes have outsized power, and way more support than they should have.

If your "side" has a couple of assholes, you can tell them to sit down and STFU.  If your side is 1/3 assholes, then there's no way to go forward without engaging in some of that assholery.  Especially if those assholes are, well, assholes.  Assholes tend to seize disproportionate power -- it's one of the hallmarks of assholes.  So Israel may be 1/3 assholes, but it finds itself in a position where its government is now pretty much 100% asshole.  The Palestinians in Gaza?  Similar situation.

Which, by the way, is one of the reason that lots of folks right here in the old U S of A are up in arms about certain political trends here, but I won't go any further CR -- I'm just noting that it's a universal problem for any society.

[txhorns 2,413]

How can anyone argue in good faith that the citizens of Gaza do not support Hamas when we have reports of civilians beating children and returning escaped hostages to Hamas?  Add to it their history of fucking up every country they have been harbored in and consistently starting shit with Israel for decades.  At this point the Palestinians are just assholes.  That still doesn’t justify indiscriminately killing civilians, though I doubt that the IDF has done that.  I think the civilian death numbers are very highly inflated and that in cases where the IDF does kill civilians it it because of them being collateral damage to the Hamas targets.
 

Hopefully the IDF eradicates Hamas and can hand the Gaza Strip over to the UN to deal with.