Israel-Hamas war thread

[Bevo 13577]

20 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

a passionate response isn’t the same as elation.

True you mocked Israel for having failed securing its border and having had a 911 moment.

[BLKNSTY 289]

True you mocked Israel for having failed securing its border and having had a 911 moment.

10/7 and 9/11 may be similar, or more horrific, in many of ways, but they also differ. namely what else, outside of approving nukes or the forced relocation of 2MM locals - what else can we provide Israel so that they can feel safer? ability for US subsidized indefinite imprisonment of tens of thousands of people (many of them being teenagers) who haven’t been formally charged? putting them under a more strict naval blockade? never-ending unchecked unmitigated settler expansion? destroying their airports? a more heavily fortified/militarized border? eliminating the palestinians ability to control their own water, electricity, internet? stop and frisk that would make Giuliani blush? genocidic rhetoric being swept under the rug? you have all of the above and 10/7 proved you are absolutely not safe. What else could you ask for? Just tell me what unquestionable specific ability you want
after 9/11, the US overhauled the entire way you get on a flight/enter this country/control our airspace and knock on wood nothing since. if something like 9/11 happened again - I don’t see how that president wouldn’t be forced to resign by EOM. how can we continue to support Netanyahu 70 days in with no clear objective, strategy or path-forward?

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

 

[Harrison Stafford 3335]

On 12/16/2023 at 6:59 PM, mchookem said:

IDF seems a bit trigger happy.

Pope condemns assault on Gaza church after IDF snipers kill two women

 

byMADELEINE DAVIES

18 DECEMBER 2023

 

 

DAN PALRAZ/CREATIVE COMMONS

The Church of the Holy Family, Gaza

THE Roman Catholic compound in Gaza has come under fire, with two women shot by an Israeli sniper “in cold blood”, the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem reported on Saturday. The account has been disputed by the IDF.

The Patriarchate’s statement on Saturday said: “A sniper of the IDF murdered two Christian women inside the Holy Family Parish in Gaza.”

Nahida — later named by Pope Francis as Nahida Khalil Anton — and her daughter Samar had been “shot and killed” as they walked to the Convent of the Sisters of Mother Theresa (Missionaries of Charity), part of the compound of the Holy Family parish, and home to more than 54 disabled people.

“One was killed as she tried to carry the other to safety,” the statement said. “Seven more people were shot and wounded as they tried to protect others inside the church compound. No warning was given, no notification was provided. They were shot in cold blood inside the premises of the Parish, where they are no belligerents.” The incident had occurred “around noon”.

On Saturday, Vatican News reported that the IDF had entered the compound, shooting at anyone leaving the church. “The victims are an elderly woman and her daughter who rushed out of the building to rescue her mother. Israel has justified the attack, claiming the presence of a missile launcher in the parish,” it reported.

In a statement quoted by the BBC on Sunday, the IDF said: “During the dialogue between the IDF and representatives of the community, no reports of a hit on the church, nor civilians being injured or killed, were raised. A review of the IDF’s operational findings support this.”

At the Angelus on Sunday, Pope Francis condemned the attack on the compound, “where there are no terrorists, but families, children, people who are sick and have disabilities, and nuns . . . Some say, ‘This is terrorism. This is war.’ Yes, it is war. It is terrorism.”

Writing on social media on Saturday, Hammam Farah, a psychotherapist based in Canada, described the two women as “family friends”. They had been walking to the convent to use the only bathroom, he wrote. “Their bodies remain strewn across the church courtyard. . . The Christian community in Gaza is on the verge of extinction.” His own family members remained in the compound.

According to the Patriarchate, earlier in the morning “a rocket from an IDF tank targeted the convent.” The building’s generator — its only source of electricity — and “fuel resources” had been destroyed. “The house was damaged by the resulting explosion and massive fire. Two more rockets, fired by an IDF tank, targeted the same Convent and rendered the home uninhabitable. The 54 disabled persons are currently displaced and without access to the respirators that some of them need to survive.”

The statement continued that, on Friday night, three people had been wounded inside the church compound as the result of “heavy bombing” in the area. Solar panels and water tanks — “indispensable for the survival of the community” — had been destroyed. The Patriarchate was “at a loss to comprehend how such an attack could be carried out, even more so as the whole Church prepares for Christmas”.

The Holy Family parish is situated in northern Gaza and is the only Roman Catholic church in Gaza. Its parish priest, Fr Gabriel Romanelli, said earlier this month that about 600 people were sheltering in the church (News, 8 December). Many had arrived after an Israeli air strike on the compound of St Porphyrios’s Greek Orthodox church, which reportedly killed 18 people, including nine children (News, 27 October).

Despite IDF orders to leave the northern part of Gaza, people had chosen to stay, he said in a film produced for the Patriarchate. “People said ‘where shall we go . . . to a place where there is no water, food or electricity?’ It was dangerous, as bombings were taking place both north and south. They chose to remain where they were, trusting in Jesus, so they truly felt the presence of God.”

On Saturday, the Archbishop of Westminster, Cardinal Vincent Nichols, who has visited the church a number of times, said that he was “heartbroken” by the information provided by the Patriarchate, which “gives a picture of seemingly deliberate and callous killing by IDF soldiers of innocent civilians: an elderly woman and her daughter in the grounds of a church. This killing has to stop. It can never be justified.”

Among those sheltering in the church are members of the family of Layla Moran, the Liberal Democrat MP for Oxford and Abingdon (News, 10 November😞 a grandmother, her son, his wife, and their 11-year-old twins. Earlier this month she said that a sixth member, a grandfather, had died from dehydration, and because he couldn’t get to a hospital. Another was sick from drinking contaminated water (News, 8 December).

“I’m now no longer sure they are going to survive until Christmas,” she told the BBC on Sunday.

On Friday, she wrote on social media that the compound had been attacked. “The bin collector and the janitor have been shot and their bodies are laying outside and remain uncollected. The generators have also stopped working and so calls are v short now. No internet of course. They are beyond desperate and terrified.”

On Saturday, she reported that “soldiers are at the gates and there was a fire when they hit one of the (already dysfunctional) generators. There is no water left. There are 300 people there. We don’t know why this is happening. Are they going to be expelled from a church just days before Christmas?”

On Sunday, she wrote: “A tank has taken position outside the church and the building opposite has been taken. The people inside have died. There are snipers at every window pointing into the church. Still shooting anyone emerging from buildings to use e.g. toilets. Still no food or water.”

There was a sniper “inside the compound”, she told the BBC. “They are absolutely terrified.”

“It makes a mockery of when Israel says it’s not targeting civilians. I don’t know what’s happening here: either the rules of engagement are being ignored or there is a plan to clear the whole of Gaza. Whatever it is, it needs to stop. My family are not justifiable collateral damage.”

The director of advocacy at the Roman Catholic aid agency CAFOD, Neil Thorns, said that the Holy Family was “a place of sanctuary and should have been respected as such. It’s because it’s such a longstanding and well-recognised place of worship in the area that today’s reports are all the more shocking. . .

“We urge all those with influence to join their voices with that of Pope Francis in calling for an immediate ceasefire and the release of all hostages.”

According to Fr Romanelli — who has been unable to return to Gaza, having travelled to Rome at the end of September — there were 135 Latin Catholics in Gaza before the conflict (out of a total of 1017 Christians). The Patriarchate operates three RC schools (with a largely Muslim intake of pupils), and a Caritas centre. There are also three religious orders present: the Sisters of Mother Theresa, the Rosary Sisters, and the Incarnate Word Sisters.

“We care for our loved ones and those around us but without any partiality,” he said. “The Church has always been doing this kind of service in the example of Jesus Christ who gave bread to all, and healed all without distinction, anyone who was in need.”

The Rosary Sisters School, which had 1250 students — one of the largest institutions educating poor communities in Gaza — was destroyed in early November, Aid to the Church in Need reported. The Sisters had already evacuated and were sheltering at the church with some of their pupils. No lives were lost.

Sister Nabila Saleh, the school’s principal, told the charity that it would be logistically impossible to move the elderly, children, sick and those with disabilities. “We will not go and leave our people,” she said. “We are here to accompany them: we cannot possibly abandon them.”

[MissingInAction 25069]

On 12/19/2023 at 4:38 PM, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

This fucking guy is a wind bag..

In..

Wait for it...

Colorado.

[RDCanecutter 26431]

2 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

This fucking guy is a wind bag..

In..

Wait for it...

Colorado.

30 years ago I went to a bar and played doubles pool against a couple that included that guy. Well, not this guy, but close enough.

Every damn time it was his shot, he would stop, gather up his stick like a wizard's staff, and pontificate about random shit that had nothing to do with the game.

Sure, he was smart. It was a college bar. Everybody was smart. Everyone was also a dumbass. And he was a big drag-ass damn dumbass. Prolly dean of some foo-foo college now. And bet he still sucks at pool.

[InkaUtexas 25926]

My thoughts are there are no more to hand over or their conditions are really bad. And don't see Bibi ending anytime soon. Slow movement to the south to force Egypt to open the borders. Interesting approach is make Gaza an Arab problem.

 

Hamas, the group which controls the Gaza Strip, has ruled out any more hostage releases until Israel agrees to a "full cessation of aggression".

Israel says it has killed more than 2,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza since a truce earlier this month when more than 100 hostages were freed.

Around 120 people abducted from Israel on 7 October are believed to be still in captivity in Gaza.

Efforts continue at the United Nations to pass a resolution on the war.

The US has said it still has serious concerns over the draft UN Security Council resolution, with voting now postponed to Friday.

The week-long truce this month also brought an increased flow of aid into Gaza where the UN has warned that the population is at risk of famine if the war between Israel and Hamas continues.

Negotiations on a new truce have been taking place in Cairo, Egypt, though initial talks on Wednesday bore no agreement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67797747

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

30 years ago I went to a bar and played doubles pool against a couple that included that guy. Well, not this guy, but close enough.

Every damn time it was his shot, he would stop, gather up his stick like a wizard's staff, and pontificate about random shit that had nothing to do with the game.

Sure, he was smart. It was a college bar. Everybody was smart. Everyone was also a dumbass. And he was a big drag-ass damn dumbass. Prolly dean of some foo-foo college now. And bet he still sucks at pool.

It's his job

[bolverk 29671]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Slow movement to the south to force Egypt to open the borders. Interesting approach is make Gaza an Arab problem.

That's been the fear from the Palestinian/Arab perspective from the start. It's not solely that the Palestinian refugees will become the Egyptians' problem; there's also the issue of the "right of return". They're scared of another Nakba where they'll never be able to come back home.

[InkaUtexas 25926]

4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

That's been the fear from the Palestinian/Arab perspective from the start. It's not solely that the Palestinian refugees will become the Egyptians' problem; there's also the issue of the "right of return". They're scared of another Nakba where they'll never be able to come back home.

Sir, this is not new. It took my Palestinian intrepreter in Dubai to get residency for 15 years, even though both his parents were doctors at good locations. Arabs seem them as Levant. They are more Turkish due to the Ottomans than the Arab Tribes. And they also saw what happened in Jordan. If I was Israel, I would slowly push south, work with Egypt, and alleviate the aid situation. Oh and stop the use of artillery. When you want to win, sometimes you have to take hits.

[Viper 12109]

What I'm hearing from senior Israeli officials about the war:

1. This phase of the war, Phase 2, which includes taking operational control of Gazan towns and neighborhoods (yet not achieving full control enemy clearance), will end soon.

 They are hopeful about specific achievements in Khan Younes, where Hamas leaders are suspected to be hiding. However, there are no guarantees. They plan to target other areas down south. Israel is seeing increased Hamas attacks in areas it already has taken. 

 

2. Phase 3 is expected to begin by mid to late January. The IDF will relocate in the north and center of Gaza, withdrawing from some areas. As I reported last week, Israel will not allow the en masse return of the Palestinian population. The argument is that these areas are still battlegrounds, and therefore, the return of civilians is unsafe. The outlook is long-term, at least a year. Many draw parallels to the IDF operations against Palestinian terror groups in the West Bank during the 2nd Intifada, which took about 2 years.

 

3. During Phase 3, the IDF will continue aerial assaults and ground raids, aimed at killing Hamas leaders and crippling its infrastructure and command. Israel is also preparing a plan to undermine Hamas' control of funding and taxation across Gaza.

 

4. Israel will be open to limited pauses in fighting, even extended ones, to facilitate more hostage deals. It is willing to release substantial numbers of Palestinian prisoners and ensure safe passage for Sinwar and Hamas leadership to leave Gaza if they free the 

hostages and cease fighting.

 

5. The general mindset within the defense apparatus is to prevent further worsening of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, fearing it will limit Israel's legitimacy in targeting Hamas. This mindset is constantly and internally challenged by those who argue that Hamas will never be crushed as long as it is not held responsible by the Gazan civilians for their disaster. 

 

6. The main issue for Netanyahu and the right wing is whether ending Phase phase 2 and the intensive ground assault will be perceived as being weak on Hamas. 

Additionally, Netanyahu has yet to provide a clear vision for Gaza and how the war will be won. He is now committed to campaign efforts in an attempt to rescue some of his tarnished image. This is creating increased rifts in the emergency coalition.

 

7. All eyes are on the north. Tens of thousands of Israelis are internally displaced due to the war Hezbollah initiated immediately after Hamas attacked. The general assessment in Israel is that diplomatic attempts vis-à-vis Hezbollah will fail, and the chances of war are increasing.

 

[Viper 12109]

There's a lot of people seeing old images, sometimes from filming actual movies and sometimes from the Syrian civil war and spreading them around as new to this conflict

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67760523

Quote

False claims of staged deaths surge in Israel-Gaza war

21st December 2023, 07:20 CST

By Olga Robinson & Shayan Sardarizadeh

BBC Verify

Unblurred images of Muhammad Hani al-Zahar, a baby with rigor mortis, were used online to claim his death was faked

The mother and grandfather of five-month-old Palestinian baby Muhammad Hani al-Zahar held his dead body in front of a hospital following the resumption of hostilities in Gaza on the first day of December.

But when footage of the grief-stricken family holding the body in their arms went viral on social media, many posts falsely claimed Muhammad was merely a doll, and not a real baby.

These claims were amplified in an article by the Jerusalem Post, an influential Israeli newspaper, which showed an image of Muhammad in rigor mortis after his death and said it proved he was a doll. After a backlash, the paper removed the article from its website, saying on X (formerly Twitter) that the report "was based on faulty sourcing".

A few weeks earlier, a video of Israeli siblings Rotem Mathias, 16, and his two sisters, Shakked and Shir, went viral online. Rotem witnessed his parents get killed by Hamas gunmen on 7 October as they sheltered in their house in a kibbutz near the border with Gaza.

The viral video featured edited clips from the siblings' interviews with US outlets ABC and CNN days after the attack. It falsely claimed that they were "crisis actors" who were lying about their parents' deaths and struggling to hold their laughter in front of cameras.

Rotem Mathias, centre right, was falsely accused of being a "crisis actor" after ABC News spoke to him about the killing of his parents

These are just two examples - viewed millions of times each - showcasing the social media schism in the Israel-Gaza war that has brought denial of atrocities and human suffering to the forefront of online debate about the conflict.

One of the key terms used to deny or minimise human suffering in Gaza is "Pallywood", a disparaging combination of "Palestine" and "Hollywood". Its proponents claim fake or staged footage of Palestinian "crisis actors" posing as genuine civilian casualties is regularly shared online to influence public opinion and deceive global media.

A BBC Verify analysis suggests that on X alone, the term "Pallywood" has seen the largest spike in the number of mentions in the past 10 years.

During previous flare-ups of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in 2014, 2018 and 2021 the word "Pallywood" consistently peaked at either 9,500 or 13,000 mentions in a single month on X. After the 7 October Hamas attack, the number of mentions peaked at 220,000 in November.

BBC Verify found that among those sharing the term "Pallywood" on social media in the past months, including X, Facebook and Instagram, were Israeli officials, celebrities and popular bloggers from Israel and the US.

On the other hand, while supporters of the Palestinians do not have a single term used to deny atrocities committed by Hamas on 7 October in Israel, posts making such claims routinely get millions of views on social media. Some falsely say that Hamas did not kill civilians on that day, or that the scale of civilian casualties has been massively exaggerated. Some even go further, falsely claiming that most of the victims were actually killed by the Israel Defense Forces, not Hamas.

Experts specialising in reconciliation efforts worry that viral disinformation which denies the other side's suffering can be dehumanising, and may impact the longer-term prospects of mending the relations between the communities affected.

"The biggest risks, I think, are the erosion of trust and the erosion of empathy," said Harriet Vickers, programme lead at the Tim Parry and Johnathan Ball Foundation for Peace, a charity that supports victims of conflict, political violence and acts of terror.

"It undermines the ability to even begin approaching reconciliation efforts."

She added that false narratives and dehumanising rhetoric can also "have a profound effect beyond those that are directly impacted by violence, and can actually further the hurt that is being done to those individuals".

False narratives about "crisis actors" or atrocity denial are not new to those who study disinformation.

How two 4-year-olds were killed and social media denied it

The concept of "crisis actors" in particular - that is people who pretend or are paid to act out some particular tragedy or disaster - has been popular among promoters of conspiracy theories for years.

It was notoriously used to allege that parents of dead children in the Sandy Hook school shooting in the US were somehow faking their personal tragedies.

In the past few years similar viral claims were posted about the killing of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha, and victims of the war in Syria.

But the volume of dehumanising rhetoric posted during this war has surprised even those who deal with such content on a daily basis.

Eliot Higgins, the founder of the investigative website Bellingcat that has covered the wars in Syria and Ukraine in recent years, says the volume of disinformation in the current Israeli-Gaza war is "unique to this conflict".

"I've seen the kind of same intensity of toxicity and vile responses and disinformation, the way they treat women and children and that kind of stuff, with Syria, with Ukraine and so many different topics - just there are more people doing it," he told the BBC.

Images of a child actor in behind-the-scenes footage of a Lebanese video were used to discredit claims of Palestinian suffering

Mr Higgins added that because many people have had very strong opinions about either side of the conflict for years, "there are more people who are sharing stuff because it is resonating with them emotionally".

"They don't really care if it's true or not, it just feels true to them."

Back in November, a video showing makeup and fake blood being applied to a child actor's face was posted on X by Ofir Gendelman, the Israeli prime minister's spokesperson to the Arab world.

"See for yourselves how they fake injuries and evacuating 'injured' civilians, all in front of the cameras. Pallywood gets busted again," Mr Gendelman said in a post that was viewed millions of times before being deleted.

The video was, in fact, behind-the-scenes footage from a 45-second Lebanese film made in tribute to Gazans and posted online in October.

Director Mahmoud Ramzi, who took to Instagram to personally debunk the false claim made about his film, told the BBC that in the end, the misinformation might have backfired, with the controversy helping his film reach a much bigger audience.

The BBC approached Mr Gendelman for comment but he has not responded.

Israeli spokesman Ofir Gendelman initially shared footage of a Lebanese film claiming it showed Palestinian injuries were faked

Others have expressed concern for the real people who find themselves in the middle of online disinformation wars. James Longman, the ABC correspondent who interviewed Rotem and his sisters, says watching Rotem recount the death of his parents brought him and his cameraman to tears.

"He was in tears, his sister was in tears, their grandfather, who was with us. Our cameraman, the hospital porters, the nurses, the doctors, and I was in tears. I mean all of us sitting there listening to what he had to say," he told the BBC.

"It was extraordinary to hear him say it, to watch his reactions as he explained what had happened."

Mr Longman said he was shocked when he saw false claims about the siblings being shared online and took to X to debunk it. His post was shared widely, and led to at least one of the viral messages about the siblings being subsequently deleted by the person who posted it.

"But it doesn't make it any less horrible for Rotem's family," Mr Longman said.

 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

 

[FartingMonk 3606]

You know what the Jews and the Palestinians both need in their lives?  Jesus.

[MissingInAction 25069]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

You know what the Jews and the Palestinians both need in their lives?  Jesus.

He tried.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

15 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

He tried.

And he died.

[InkaUtexas 25926]

We need a Surly Last Supper painting, in MS Paint. Immamac is at the center. Or maybe Ricky.

Just our avatars are the apostles. That one damn aggy we allow on can be Judas. Yeah, you know who I am thinking of.

 

[FartingMonk 3606]

Only if derka is getting shoulder checked by aggy

['stache 21814]

2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

You know what the Jews and the Palestinians both need in their lives?  Jesus.

At least give Colin Jost some credit. He made Michael Che say this during the SNL Weekend Update joke swap.

[FartingMonk 3606]

10 minutes ago, 'stache said:

At least give Colin Jost some credit. He made Michael Che say this during the SNL Weekend Update joke swap.

I actually heard it from some fat comedian on tiktok. He used the Muslim/Jewish version of it instead.

[jkates 316]

5 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

 

Murray dominated Cenk there. "ill-traveled, ill-lettered, and ill-spoken " made me chuckle. 

[ChickenSandwich 9834]

 

 

*anyone taking Hamas figures at face value is not arguing in good faith. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by ChickenSandwich

[bolverk 29671]

Israel Gaza: What Gaza's death toll says about the war

At least 20,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been reported killed since Israel began bombing the territory in the wake of Hamas's 7 October attacks. BBC Verify examines what Gaza's death toll reveals about the conflict.

On average, nearly 300 people have been killed each day since the start of the conflict, excluding the seven-day ceasefire, data from Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry indicates. The World Health Organization's regional emergency director Richard Brennan says he considers these casualty figures trustworthy.

Counting the dead is a challenge in any war zone, and doctors in Gaza say the death toll is likely to be significantly higher as it does not include bodies buried under the rubble of destroyed buildings or those not taken to hospitals.

BBC Verify has looked in detail at the figures, how they compare with other conflicts and the impact on Gaza's young population.

A high death toll
The pace of killing in this war has been "exceptionally high", says Prof Michael Spagat, who specialises in examining death tolls in conflicts around the world, such as the 2003 Iraq war, Colombia's civil conflict, wars in the Democratic Republic of Congo as well as previous wars between Israel and Gaza.

"Within the series of Gaza wars stretching back to 2008, the current one is unprecedented both for the number of people killed and for the indiscriminateness of the killing," he adds.

The 20,000 figure represents almost 1% of Gaza's 2.2 million population.

The BBC has spoken to military experts who have described the wide variety of bombs used by Israel - some about 100lb and others as large as 2000lb - as having directly contributed to the scale of fatalities in this conflict.

Being near the impact of the largest bombs is like "surfing on the Earth as the shockwave momentarily liquefies the ground", says Marc Garlasco, a former senior intelligence analyst at the Pentagon and former UN war crimes investigator, who spoke to victims and witnesses of these bombs.

What makes them even more devastating is that Gaza has a very high population density. It is just 41km (25 miles) long and 10km (six miles) wide. On average, before the conflict, there were more than 5,700 people per sq km in Gaza - very similar to the average density in London.

Israel began its military campaign in Gaza in the wake of Hamas' attacks, in which 1,200 people were killed, most of them civilians. Three months later, it is facing mounting pressure over the number of civilian casualties.

In worldwide conflicts between 2011 and 2021, on average 90% of fatalities were civilians when explosive weapons were used on populated areas, according to the research and advocacy group Action on Armed Violence.

According to US intelligence assessments seen by CNN, in this war, Israel had dropped more than 29,000 bombs on Gaza since the war began and mid-December, with 40-45% of these unguided.

Edited December 23, 2023 by bolverk

[Armybrat 40842]

WTF?

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4375103-iran-threatens-to-close-mediterranean-sea-amid-war-gaza/

Quote

Iran threatens to close Mediterranean Sea citing US ‘crimes’ in Gaza

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Armybrat

[MissingInAction 25069]

[Schulz2.0 28951]

Israelis hit a Damascus suburb with an airstrike killing a high ranking IRGC general.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/25/israeli-airstrike-in-damascus-kills-high-ranking-iranian-general-says-iran

Edited December 26, 2023 by Schulz2.0

[InkaUtexas 25926]

So that is why they are using 2K dumb bombs in Gaza. Gotta save the JDAMs for Iran.

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

 

[statsman 5463]

This is a tough one-

An Israeli airstrike on a Gaza refugee camp in October killed the target, a Hamas commander. But it also cost scores of civilian lives. Why did it happen?
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-airstrike-hamas-commander-civilian-deaths-3b6be664?st=y7rgftb6fxls0t2&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
 
Yes, many innocent civilians (children, even) were killed. I blame Hamas. They started the war. Their commander (I’d like to hear a counter argument that he wasn’t planning to target more Israeli civilians, if anyone can make it) was sheltering near this population center. 
 
It sucks for the innocents, just as it sucks for innocent civilians in all wars where their nation started a fight against a more powerful foe. 

[Samson's Wig 3192]

On 12/23/2023 at 1:07 PM, Armybrat said:

WTF?

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4375103-iran-threatens-to-close-mediterranean-sea-amid-war-gaza/

 

lol.  Fuck off, Iran.  What is it with the Middle East (plus Russia) and empty threats?   Do they actually think anyone takes this kind of shit seriously?  Are their citizens stupid enough to believe this crap?  Who is their audience?  I can stand up and say, "I will be fucking Salma Hayak tonight" and it would carry the same level of credibility. 

[956 Worldwide 34711]

1 hour ago, Samson's Wig said:

lol.  Fuck off, Iran.  What is it with the Middle East (plus Russia) and empty threats?   Do they actually think anyone takes this kind of shit seriously?  Are their citizens stupid enough to believe this crap?  Who is their audience?  I can stand up and say, "I will be fucking Salma Hayak tonight" and it would carry the same level of credibility. 

Iran is upping the rhetoric game and will likely be upping the Red Sea game based on the U.S. response thus far. I keep hammering this point, but that campaign is going fantastic for them.  We have publicly announced that we are happy to just patrol the sea and respond to ships in aid and expend interceptors on cheap drones.  The other side is accomplishing  nearly all of its goals: making transit expensive and dangerous, making the United States look weak and toothless, and letting us spend tons of money to do so. 
 

I am not exaggerating about this, we have announced publicly that the goal of Prosperity Guardian is to “deter and de-escalate.”  You cannot announce your intention to de-escalate, you’re telling the adversary that you are determined to let him get away with shit. 
 

Deterrence, almost axiomatically, depends on the threat of escalation. 
 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by 956 Worldwide

[Samson's Wig 3192]

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Iran is upping the rhetoric game and will likely be upping the Red Sea game based on the U.S. response thus far. I keep hammering this point, but that campaign is going fantastic for them.  We have publicly announced that we are happy to just patrol the sea and respond to ships in aid and expend interceptors on cheap drones.  The other side is accomplishing  nearly all of its goals: making transit expensive and dangerous, making the United States look weak and toothless, and letting us spend tons of money to do so. 
 

I am not exaggerating about this, we have announced publicly that the goal of Prosperity Guardian is to “deter and de-escalate.”  You cannot announce your intention to de-escalate, you’re telling the adversary that you are determined to let him get away with shit. 
 

 

All of that makes sense to me and involves threats to a region they can do something about (if the West decides to let them).  I agree that Prosperity Guardain has not been handled well and makes no real sense if the goal is to actually free up shipping in the region.  Claiming they're going to shut down the Mediterranean Sea, however,  makes no sense to me at all.  No one will take that threat seriously, nor should they, and if anything, it makes Iran look as toothless as they are because it's such an obviously empty threat.  They may as well say they will colonize the moon and rain rockets down upon the west from their new base up there.  I'm probably just too slow to see it, but I don't get their angle at all with this one.

[27-25 2047]

On 12/22/2023 at 11:38 AM, FartingMonk said:

You know what the Jews and the Palestinians both need in their lives?  Jesus.

[956 Worldwide 34711]

44 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

All of that makes sense to me and involves threats to a region they can do something about (if the West decides to let them).  I agree that Prosperity Guardain has not been handled well and makes no real sense if the goal is to actually free up shipping in the region.  Claiming they're going to shut down the Mediterranean Sea, however,  makes no sense to me at all.  No one will take that threat seriously, nor should they, and if anything, it makes Iran look as toothless as they are because it's such an obviously empty threat.  They may as well say they will colonize the moon and rain rockets down upon the west from their new base up there.  I'm probably just too slow to see it, but I don't get their angle at all with this one.

Should probably take this to the Prosperity Guardian thread, but it’s less far-fetched than you think given the way Iran exploits gray-zone techniques and our extremely defensive posture.  
 

We could have easily inflicted enough damage on the Houthis to make this stop, but we made a choice not to. A few days ago, Iran—not the Houthis—launched a one-way drone attack against a ship about 200 miles off the coast of India.  Now think a bit about th capability they demonstrated there. Iran has thus far paid no price for that even as we announced they did it. 
 

You do not need to set up a blockade to turn off shipping, you just need to make it dangerous and risky enough that insurers either jack prices sky high or just say “no.” 
 

Consider an IRGC-owned merchant vessel (they have them) launching a few drone attacks at ships transiting Gibraltar.  They don’t even have to succeed, just demonstrate they can, and all of a sudden they are closer to doing this than you think.

Who is going to sink that vessel? Are we? Have we given any reason to make Iran believe we would? We aren’t willing to target their proxies in Yemen. 

[Samson's Wig 3192]

I may be naive, but I think if they go after Mediterranean targets the mindset of the West, particularly Europe, would shift dramatically into a much more aggressive stance.  Iran would not just get away with that move.

[Viper 12109]

46 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

I may be naive, but I think if they go after Mediterranean targets the mindset of the West, particularly Europe, would shift dramatically into a much more aggressive stance.  Iran would not just get away with that move.

Isn't this why France and the other EU countries dropped out of the US led prosperity guardian operation? 

[Samson's Wig 3192]

57 minutes ago, Viper said:

Isn't this why France and the other EU countries dropped out of the US led prosperity guardian operation? 

I thought it had more to do with guarding their own ships and not wanting to kiss the U.S. ring by acknowledging we're in charge, but I don't really know anything other than what I've read which may have been biased.  I'm not following this too closely.

[956 Worldwide 34711]

Big investigation by the NYT reveals systematic sexual violence by Hamas on October 7.  You can get a free gift link below.  Be forewarned that it is extraordinarily gruesome. 
 

 

[nineliveslost 2756]

26 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Big investigation by the NYT reveals systematic sexual violence by Hamas on October 7.  You can get a free gift link below.  Be forewarned that it is extraordinarily gruesome. 
 

 

sickening. Thats why Israel won't stop until Hamas is wiped out. I hope they hunt down and kill every single participant and every single leader. 

[FartingMonk 3606]

The war is about to get bigger.  Iran has officially enters this Donnybrook

[Parliament 14258]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Big investigation by the NYT reveals systematic sexual violence by Hamas on October 7.  You can get a free gift link below.  Be forewarned that it is extraordinarily gruesome. 
 

 

That is a tough read.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

47 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

The war is about to get bigger.  Iran has officially enters this Donnybrook

I don’t think they have the balls to fuck around in the Mediterranean like some of their leaders have mentioned. Western allies maybe bickering over the Red Sea and wanting to prioritize defending vessels flagged to the allies’ home ports (although Maersk and others are coming back) but the Med is a good way to get Article 5 invoked.  The US alone has over 500 cruise missiles parked down the Red Sea and over towards the Persian Gulf.  Brits and French have quite a few as well, out into the Indian Ocean,

More for the other thread, but things do feel slightly weird, like a lot of chess pieces are being moved around the board.  The announcement a few days ago that Iran and Russia would start trading in local currencies instead of the American dollar made me wonder if Iran is planning something that could impact their markets.

[FartingMonk 3606]

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-780016

 

Nah Israel took the war to them.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

2 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-780016

Nah Israel took the war to them.

[956 Worldwide 34711]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don’t think they have the balls to fuck around in the Mediterranean like some of their leaders have mentioned. Western allies maybe bickering over the Red Sea and wanting to prioritize defending vessels flagged to the allies’ home ports (although Maersk and others are coming back) but the Med is a good way to get Article 5 invoked.  The US alone has over 500 cruise missiles parked down the Red Sea and over towards the Persian Gulf.  Brits and French have quite a few as well, out into the Indian Ocean,

More for the other thread, but things do feel slightly weird, like a lot of chess pieces are being moved around the board.  The announcement a few days ago that Iran and Russia would start trading in local currencies instead of the American dollar made me wonder if Iran is planning something that could impact their markets.

More likely just straight sanctions evasion, it’s a game of cat and mouse to get around them and it’s much easier for us to intervene in dollar denominated transactions. 
 

The question will be what then happens, Iran doesn’t want to be holding Russian rubles so how do they convert them into something they can use? 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

3 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-780016

Nah Israel took the war to them.

Israel does an air strike on the main international airport out of Syria’s Capitol, kills at least 11 important Iranians. And Syria does nothing in response, nor does Russian air defenses or aircraft get involved.

Should almost have Assad in the deadpool.  

[atomheartbevo 89659]

NSFW  

Spoiler

 

 

An explosion hit southern Beirut on Tuesday, destroying several cars and killing official Saleh al-Arouri, according to multiple reports in Lebanese and Israeli media.

This is a significant development. Israeli intelligence has been trying to kill al-Arouri for years and the United States has had a 5 million dollar bounty on him.

Hamas confirms was assassinated alongside 2 leaders in the Hamas military wing.

Hezbollah’s leader had warned that any assassination of a senior figure (regardless nationality or affiliation) on Lebanese soil would have consequences.

This escalation is deliberate Al-Arouri is a deputy political leader for Hamas and one of the founders of al-Qassam Brigades, the so-called military wing of Hamas.

This is an extremely serious escalation. Bombing Beirut or its suburbs had long been declared a red line by Hezbollah that would necessitate significant retaliation.

The area [of the explosion] is Beirut's southern suburb, the area of Mouawad, and it's, of course, known to be an area where Hezbollah is active, also the Palestinian groups are active;

 

[Brisketexan 105127]

As pissed off as it makes the terrorists (and...tough shit, fuck those guys), this is EXACTLY the kind of action Israel should be taking, as opposed to its blunt instrument approach in Gaza.  Find the leaders of Hamas.  Kill them wherever they are, with as much precision as practicable.  That gets the people they're supposed to get, with much reduced civilian casualties.

[956 Worldwide 34711]

Except this is actually a huge escalation. The Hezbollah leader has canceled his planned speech tomorrow.  These types of strikes were understood to be off the table inside of Lebanon, kind of a tacit understanding. There’s a risk that Hezbollah joins for real now. 
 

@Brisketexan, it can’t be emphasized enough that Hamas and its allies would BY FAR rather see Israel kill every Palestenian in Gaza than strike leadership of Hamas hiding abroad. 

[956 Worldwide 34711]