Israel-Hamas war thread

[Brisketexan 105,161]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Except this is actually a huge escalation. The Hezbollah leader has canceled his planned speech tomorrow.  These types of strikes were understood to be off the table inside of Lebanon, kind of a tacit understanding. There’s a risk that Hezbollah joins for real now. 
 

@Brisketexan, it can’t be emphasized enough that Hamas and its allies would BY FAR rather see Israel kill every Palestenian in Gaza than strike leadership of Hamas hiding abroad. 

The bolded - I know, which is why I like this move.  When playing chess, you most often don't want to make the move your opponent wants you to make.  You want to make the move they DON'T want you to make.  Escalation schmescalation.  This is how you fight an organization like Hamas.  You cut heads off of snakes.  You don't indiscriminately bomb the entire ranch hoping you hit a snake or two when the place is obliterated.

And also, Israel thinks (not entirely wrongly) that this is an all-in fight against enemies like Hezbollah that have only been arming and getting stronger every day.  Better to have the fight now, when you're already at war, than later (when Hezbollah is even better armed).

Iran is a pan-regional problem.  And that problem is only getting worse.

Edited January 2 by Brisketexan

[Armybrat 40,851]

Tough shit Hezbollah, you are harboring terrorists and war criminals.

[FartingMonk 3,608]

Bibi is trying to show the world he ain't no punk bitch.  He is really going for it.  

[Chopper 17,239]

46 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Bibi is trying to show the world he ain't no punk bitch.

He's too late.

[Viper 12,109]

Sounds like they got another leader too

and the Hezbollah speech is reportedly back on.

[ABSR 5,319]

2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

Bibi is trying to show the world he ain't no punk bitch.  He is really going for it.  

Bibi is trying to have the war last long enough for him to be seen more as the tough leader who defeated Hamas instead of the want-to-be dictator who ignored security and let the Hamas terrorist massacre/debacle happen.

[Brisketexan 105,161]

5 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Bibi is trying to have the war last long enough for him to be seen more as the tough leader who defeated Hamas instead of the want-to-be dictator who ignored security and let the Hamas terrorist massacre/debacle happen.

And also the whole "as long as I stay as PM, they probably can't try me and toss me in prison."  Don't forget that -- the PM seat is literally his "get out of jail" card, and he won't give it up easily.

[FartingMonk 3,608]

3 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Bibi is trying to have the war last long enough for him to be seen more as the tough leader who defeated Hamas instead of the want-to-be dictator who ignored security and let the Hamas terrorist massacre/debacle happen.

There was an interview he had last year right after election.  He talked about his dead brother and it had a very Putin feeling to it.  He wants a lasting legacy of the savior of Israel.  Like he wanted it to happen

[Bevo 13,580]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

As pissed off as it makes the terrorists (and...tough shit, fuck those guys), this is EXACTLY the kind of action Israel should be taking, as opposed to its blunt instrument approach in Gaza.  Find the leaders of Hamas.  Kill them wherever they are, with as much precision as practicable.  That gets the people they're supposed to get, with much reduced civilian casualties.

Yeah, but I'm not sure how much of a difference it will make. Yasser Arrafat made billions in grift. Then, he was gone and some more radical dudes made billions. So, once those guys are killed, I don't think the next progression is peace in the middle east and hugs and kisses between Israel and the Arab world. Someone will make billions.

[Brisketexan 105,161]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, but I'm not sure how much of a difference it will make. Yasser Arrafat made billions in grift. Then, he was gone and some more radical dudes made billions. So, once those guys are killed, I don't think the next progression is peace in the middle east and hugs and kisses between Israel and the Arab world. Someone will make billions.

Oh, undoubtedly.  There's no path forward that doesn't involve "and it continues to get worse."  Each "side" in this conflict is fucked by the fact that they are being driven by a genocidal plurality that has outsize control over policy/military actions.  And that is never, ever, ever going away.  So, neither is the bloodshed.

[Chopper 17,239]

And now this...https://lite.cnn.com/2024/01/02/politics/us-qatar-agreement-largest-base-middle-east/index.html

US quietly reaches agreement with Qatar to keep operating largest military base in Middle East

By Alex Marquardt and Natasha Bertrand, CNN

Updated: 4:42 PM EST, Tue January 2, 2024

Source: CNN

The United States has quietly reached an agreement that extends its military presence at a sprawling base in Qatar for another 10 years, three US defense officials and another official familiar with the agreement told CNN.

The deal, which has not been announced publicly, highlights Washington’s reliance on the tiny Gulf country that has recently played a central role in mediating the release of Americans from captivity in Gaza and Venezuela.

The Al Udeid Air Base, located in the desert southwest of Doha, is the biggest US military installation in the Middle East and can house more than 10,000 American troops.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Al Udeid last month where he thanked Qatar for their increased spending on the base.

But he made no mention of the renewal and the Biden administration has not publicized it – at a time when Qatar has come under growing scrutiny for hosting senior Hamas leaders. Qatari officials have countered that it was only after a US request during the Obama administration that Hamas was allowed to open a political office in Doha.

The base has been a pivotal hub for the US Central Command’s air operations in or around Afghanistan, Iran and across the Middle East. The Qatari and British Air Forces also operate from the base.

The extension comes as the US has bolstered its presence in the region amid escalating threats from Iran-backed militant groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

After Hamas kidnapped some 240 hostages from Israel on October 7, Qatar has been the primary go-between with Hamas to broker the initial release of scores of the Israeli and international hostages. It continues to be central in the talks to try to revive hostage negotiations, coordinating with the CIA and Israel’s Mossad, as well as Egypt.

cont'd at link

[Schulz2.0 28,969]

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,728]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

Wow. Iran has no shortage of enemies that might have done this. That said, it’s the sort of black swan event that could lead to a stumble into regional war regardless of who did it. 

[atomheartbevo 89,735]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Wow. Iran has no shortage of enemies that might have done this. That said, it’s the sort of black swan event that could lead to a stumble into regional war regardless of who did it. 

Don’t think it was the US, not our style and accomplishes nothing militarily (especially since we were the ones who killed the guy years ago).  If it was Israel, it would be more precise and we’d already know the target - they aren’t potentially wasting assets to kill a bunch of random mourners for a guy who died years ago. India is pissed at a Iran, but whatever revenge they take over the drone attack will be focused on the drone attack and not mourners of some guy we killed years ago.  

Saudis and Iraqis have some solid motives, given who the guy was, but it doesn’t feel like something Iraq would do..

He was a powerful person within Iran, and attacking people who looked up to him could send a message from one Iranian faction to another Iranian faction.

I’d put it at 80% Iranians behind it, and 20% Saudis/somebody else.

[Anastasis 23,479]

My money would be on Iranian Sunni faction. This ain’t us or Israel.  

[Chopper 17,239]

Netyanyahu lost his bid to overturn a law that makes it possible to kick him out of office. The Israel Supreme Court vote was 6 to 5 and some observers say this is the end of the line for Netanyahu's fascist revolution. Netanyahu argued a PM could be removed from office only due to physical or mental incapacity, and nothing else.

 

AP article -
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israels-supreme-court-delays-activation-law-makes-harder-106075989

Quote

 

Israel's Supreme Court delays activation of law that makes it harder to remove Netanyahu from office

Israel’s Supreme Court has ruled that a law that could make it harder to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office must go into effect only after the next elections

JERUSALEM -- A law that would make it harder to remove Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office must go into effect only after the next parliamentary elections, the country's Supreme Court ruled Wednesday, saying the law was clearly crafted for personal reasons.

Israeli legislators passed the law in March 2023 as part of the government's contentious legal overhaul plan. Critics said the law was designed to protect Netanyahu from being deemed unfit to rule over claims of a conflict of interest. He had been working to reshape the justice system while on trial for alleged corruption.

The court’s ruling in a 6-5 vote comes days after it overturned the first major piece of the overhaul in a blow to Netanyahu’s government. The next parliamentary elections are expected in 2026 but could be held before then.

Netanyahu is on trial for fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in three separate cases. He denies wrongdoing.

His involvement in the legal overhaul raised questions, including by the country's attorney general, over whether that constituted a conflict of interest while he was on trial.

 

 

Edited January 3 by Chopper
sp

[MagicSoccerSpray 1,732]

39 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Don’t think it was the US, not our style and accomplishes nothing militarily (especially since we were the ones who killed the guy years ago).  If it was Israel, it would be more precise and we’d already know the target - they aren’t potentially wasting assets to kill a bunch of random mourners for a guy who died years ago. India is pissed at a Iran, but whatever revenge they take over the drone attack will be focused on the drone attack and not mourners of some guy we killed years ago.  

Saudis and Iraqis have some solid motives, given who the guy was, but it doesn’t feel like something Iraq would do..

He was a powerful person within Iran, and attacking people who looked up to him could send a message from one Iranian faction to another Iranian faction.

I’d put it at 80% Iranians behind it, and 20% Saudis/somebody else.

 I'm guessing The Brotherhood/al Queda

[Schulz2.0 28,969]

Up to 103 dead in the Iranian bombings.

[Schulz2.0 28,969]

23 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Wow. Iran has no shortage of enemies that might have done this. That said, it’s the sort of black swan event that could lead to a stumble into regional war regardless of who did it. 

Islamic State seems to be the current thought. Iran is reportedly increasing security on their borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/04/iran-kerman-attack-islamic-state-suspicion-border-afghanistan-pakistan

Edited January 4 by Schulz2.0

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

Islamic State came out and said it was them

[Viper 12,109]

44 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Islamic State came out and said it was them

Yeah it was getting pretty obvious

 

Especially given that this is Israel's style

 

[Nivek 16,946]

[Viper 12,109]

Iran may be trying to de-escalate now

 

 

 

[Viper 12,109]

Some more official sounding plans for post war Gaza

 

 

Wonder how much of that multinational task force is agreed to or if it's mostly just wish casting. Would the Arab nations be Jordan, Egypt, Saudi? Maybe UAE and/or Qatar? 

[Brisketexan 105,161]

13 minutes ago, Viper said:

Wonder how much of that multinational task force is agreed to or if it's mostly just wish casting.

Betting on the bolded.

Do YOU want US troops on the ground in Gaza "keeping the peace?"  Fuck no.  No sane administration would do so.

[InkaUtexas 26,007]

I think there will be one, but very little US involvement. Canadians, Africans, Latin Americans. We will support and sustain.

[bolverk 29,694]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think there will be one, but very little US involvement. Canadians, Africans, Latin Americans. We will support and sustain.

This is probably a really stupid idea for multiple reasons, but what about the Irish, who are famously perceived as being generally sympathetic to Palestinians because of their own history vis-a-vis the UK? Might they be a) willing, b) capable, and c) seen as sufficiently neutral?

I dunno. Just spitballin'.

[SquishMitten 10,419]

Good luck telling a bunch of Irish soldiers they're going to be stationed in a place where alcohol is outlawed. 

[InkaUtexas 26,007]

12 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This is probably a really stupid idea for multiple reasons, but what about the Irish, who are famously perceived as being generally sympathetic to Palestinians because of their own history vis-a-vis the UK? Might they be a) willing, b) capable, and c) seen as sufficiently neutral?

I dunno. Just spitballin'.

They do participate but usually with their police vs. the army.

5 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Good luck telling a bunch of Irish soldiers they're going to be stationed in a place where alcohol is outlawed. 

Put them on the Israeli side.  And have never seen Peacekeeping forces not find booze.

[bolverk 29,694]

11 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Good luck telling a bunch of Irish soldiers they're going to be stationed in a place where alcohol is outlawed. 

Even more reason to kick out Hamas. Your comment made me look it up, and, apparently, they have breweries in the West Bank -- one of which hosts an annual Oktoberfest-style celebration.

[SquishMitten 10,419]

Yeah, I was just referring to the Gaza Strip being dry

[956 Worldwide 34,728]

24 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This is probably a really stupid idea for multiple reasons, but what about the Irish, who are famously perceived as being generally sympathetic to Palestinians because of their own history vis-a-vis the UK? Might they be a) willing, b) capable, and c) seen as sufficiently neutral?

I dunno. Just spitballin'.

Incapable and also likely unwilling. Ireland has something like 3 brigades and a small patrol force to protect fisheries.  About 8K active duty.  They can’t sustain any sort of deployment to be the framework nation for something like this. 
 

You can read about their deployments, they commit in the tens to various multinational missions. 
 

https://www.military.ie/en/overseas-deployments/current-missions/ 

[bolverk 29,694]

7 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Yeah, I was just referring to the Gaza Strip being dry

I get that and was only pointing out the difference between Hamas-controlled Gaza vs. the PA in the West Bank.

[bolverk 29,694]

8 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Incapable and also likely unwilling. Ireland has something like 3 brigades and a small patrol force to protect fisheries.  About 8K active duty.  They can’t sustain any sort of deployment to be the framework nation for something like this. 
 

You can read about their deployments, they commit in the tens to various multinational missions. 
 

https://www.military.ie/en/overseas-deployments/current-missions/ 

From your link.

[InkaUtexas 26,007]

well to be fair, 12 Irish could hold off a battalion of Bangladesh peacekeepers.

[Nivek 16,946]

37 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

well to be fair, 12 Irish could hold off a battalion of Bangladesh peacekeepers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Jadotville   They did OK here. 

[FartingMonk 3,608]

40 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

well to be fair, 12 Irish could hold off a battalion of Bangladesh peacekeepers.

I thought it was 1 Irish who drank a 12 pack can hold off that battalion 

[InkaUtexas 26,007]

They also did well in Bosnia. Plus were fun to hang out with.

[bolverk 29,694]

30 minutes ago, Nivek said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Jadotville   They did OK here. 

Totally forgotten about that movie.

[Brisketexan 105,161]

I dunno -- this video leaked from a secret UN Security Council meeting seems to put the kibosh on Bolverk's proposal:

[Brisketexan 105,161]

Israel/Hamas War adjacent is all the Ivy League drama and on the back of Harvard President resigning, thought this was a fascinating (long) read:
 

The FIRST gushing reply to that is from….General Mike Flynn. Sorry, if you’re on team “treasonous piece of shit,” you lose.
I don’t care what decent points might be buried in that missive. If Mike Flynn likes you, you’re a piece of shit too.

[Viper 12,109]

Not sure what the play is. Reckless hostage deaths do not play well at home. You can also add it to the list of Hamas war crimes. 

Just Now (Israel Radio Second Channel):

 

Former Head of Israeli Military Intelligence, Amos Yadlin, says that the IDF know precisely where Hamas head, Yahya Sinwar, is located in Gaza but is inhibited from eliminating him because he has surrounded himself with many of the remaining living Israeli hostages who are serving as human shields.

[atomheartbevo 89,735]

1 minute ago, Viper said:

Not sure what the play is. Reckless hostage deaths do not play well at home. You can also add it to the list of Hamas war crimes. 

The play is that he’s a dead man walking.  As soon as they can, they will kill him and everybody knows it.

[Parliament 14,263]

He's the #1 Hamas el hefe?  Top dog?  I though he lived in Dubai.

Edited January 7 by Parliament

[Chopper 17,239]

53 minutes ago, Parliament said:

He's the #1 Hamas el hefe?  Top dog?  I though he lived in Dubai.

Their political leadership lives in Qatar. Sinwar is a psychopathic murderer who is Hamas' chief terrorist. He was in an Israeli prison at one point -- sentenced for multiple murders -- but was released in a hostage exchange after Hamas captured an IDF soldier. (You'll never guess who was PM of Israel at the time.)

[Viper 12,109]

40 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Their political leadership lives in Qatar. Sinwar is a psychopathic murderer who is Hamas' chief terrorist. He was in an Israeli prison at one point -- sentenced for multiple murders -- but was released in a hostage exchange after Hamas captured an IDF soldier. (You'll never guess who was PM of Israel at the time.)

Who's life was saved by Israel performing brain surgery on him. 

Worst. genociders. ever. 

Edited January 8 by Viper

[Schulz2.0 28,969]

From The Guardian's live blog:

[Schulz2.0 28,969]

The Guardian also has this article about Egyptian brokers extorting Gazans in order to get across the Rafah crossing into Egypt.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/jan/08/palestinians-flee-gaza-rafah-egypt-border-bribes-to-brokers

[Viper 12,109]

Video out of 4 of the hostages. They don't appear to be treated as well as the elderly ones were

 

 

[RDCanecutter 26,454]

3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The Guardian also has this article about Egyptian brokers extorting Gazans in order to get across the Rafah crossing into Egypt.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/jan/08/palestinians-flee-gaza-rafah-egypt-border-bribes-to-brokers

Ancient Civilizations gonna Ancient Civ.