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Israel-Hamas war thread


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57 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Did I make my over to the Cloak Room?  No?  Just checking.

What's cloaky in this exchange, exactly? We are talking about a Wharton statistics prof writing up bullshit stats in "news" articles, and snuff clips. That is solid DT material, esp the latter.

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17 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

What's cloaky in this exchange, exactly? We are talking about a Wharton statistics prof writing up bullshit stats in "news" articles, and snuff clips. That is solid DT material, esp the latter.

Was really referring to Mack's posting trying to draw everyone into a debate completely unrelated to news.

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The reports of Israeli rapes at Al-Shifa were made-up. This isn't actually surprising considering the IDF has been criticized for not sexually assaulting Palestinian prisoners, I guess it's a little surprising that the refutation has come from Hamas.

 

 

What's more interesting is why the IDF is back at Al Shifa hospital in the first place. For some reason it looks like hundreds of Hamas and PIJ fighters returned to the hospital along with several high ranking members that are being captured. I've seen speculation that there was anticipation of a ceasefire and Hamas sent these fighters back up north to prepare to retake control of the area during the ceasefire, but I think that's just all just conjecture.

 

Quote

The IDF said that Islamic Jihad operatives holed up at the medical center surrendered to troops, including Hussam Salameh, the commander of PIJ’s observation and intelligence unit in Gaza City, and his brother, Wissam Salameh, head of the terror group’s propaganda unit in Gaza City. In an evening press conference, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari detailed additional senior PIJ operatives who were captured by troops at Shifa, including the commander of the terror group’s Shejaiya Battalion, the deputy commander of PIJ’s Northern Gaza Brigade, and a PIJ commander charged with the terror group’s tunnels in northern Gaza. Also captured at Shifa were three senior officers in Hamas’s so-called West Bank headquarters, which is tasked with advancing attacks against Israel from the West Bank, the army said. The Shin Bet named them as Amr Asida, the head of the Nablus unit; Mahmoud Qawasmeh, one of the planners of the 2014 kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teens; and Hamdallah Hassan Ali, who was also involved in directing recent attacks in the West Bank. Hagari said there were additional “very significant” senior Hamas commanders who were captured by troops at Shifa, but that their identities could not immediately be disclosed due to their ongoing interrogations.

 

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On 3/22/2024 at 10:20 AM, HendersonHorns said:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/poll-over-70-palestinians-still-maintain-hamas-correct-to-commit-oct-7-atrocities/

 

of course this is a Times of Israel article, so take it as you will. 
 

there will never be peace. 2 state, one state, no state.

 

how do you defeat an idea?  Imperial Japan is the only people I can think that got their identity smoked out to be a different people completely. 
 

if the situation was reversed, or if it was me in the Palestinians situation, I would vote the same way I imagine. 
 

I don’t know. 

I would not say never, but it will take a lot of time.  The comparison (not perfect) I would draw would be the Irish/IRA situation in the past.  We would have said similar things about that, but in the end I think what fixed it was prosperity.  When people have jobs, opportunities, a future they think they can get for themselves and their children they will not focus on killing others, but on the kitchen remodel they want, or the new car, or school opportunities for their kids.

How to do that and actually get money to be provided and then to have it not be stolen and to be used for the intended purpose.....well

Edited by ABSR
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I would not say never, but it will take a lot of time.  The comparison (not perfect) I would draw would be the Irish/IRA situation in the past.  We would have said similar things about that, but in the end I think what fixed it was prosperity.  When people have jobs, opportunities, a future they think they can get for themselves and their children they will not focus on killing others, but on the kitchen remodel they want, or the new car, or school opportunities for their kids.
How to do that and actually get money to be provided and then to have it not be stolen and to be used for the intended purpose.....well

It’s a variation of the old rule (which has since been broken more than once) that no two countries that each had a McDonalds had gone to war with each other. No interest in doing so, and no need to risk the prosperity that McDonalds is a companion of.

I don’t see a way to get there. These two sides never will.
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The future of Unwra, the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, is in the air as Arab countries fail to fill the funding gap left by the U.S.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/arab-nations-balk-at-funding-u-n-aid-agency-vital-to-palestinians-5f79a5e9?st=l91wr88i2nbgp23&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
 
Shitty situation. Gazan civilians need humanitarian aid. UNRWA is hobbled by lack of funding, due to ties to Hamas. Israel is prioritizing security over getting the aid there (fear of weapons smuggling, fear of aid getting to Hamas). Hamas is the enemy of the aid getting to the civilian populace (humanitarian suffering increases international pressure on Israel to cease fire). 
 
In short-Israel is ambivalent about Gazan suffering (at best, alleviating it is very much a lesser priority) and Hamas wants the suffering to worsen in the near term, in support of getting a cease fire. Shitty situation. 

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Israeli society is divided over how to prioritize the country’s two main war aims—destroying Hamas and freeing 130 hostages kidnapped on Oct. 7 last year—and many say the goals are irreconcilable
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-set-out-to-destroy-hamas-and-free-hostagesbut-worries-it-cant-do-both-f6b6fc9d?st=7x4l01krsdbf6xz&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

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also a study looking at the methods the official Gaza causualties are counted

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/gaza-fatality-data-has-become-completely-unreliable

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eated debates over the Palestinian death toll in the Hamas-Israel war tend to focus on the fact that widely cited fatality numbers make no distinction between combatants and noncombatants. While this is true, it misses a more fundamental problem—the numbers themselves have lost any claim to validity.

In the first month of the war, the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health (MOH) in Gaza relied on its existing collection system, made up primarily of hospitals and morgues, to certify each death. Starting in early November, however, hospitals in northern Gaza began to shut down or evacuate during the Israeli ground invasion, spurring the MOH to introduce a new, undefined methodology for counting fatalities: media reports. This methodology, which the MOH has rarely acknowledged publicly, accounts for the majority of fatalities reported over the past four months, surpassing the traditional collection system.

A comparison of the two methodologies, using MOH reports and claims published by the Hamas-controlled Government Media Office (GMO), yields wildly different and irreconcilable results, indicating that the media reports methodology is dramatically understating fatalities among adult males, the demographic most likely to be combatants. This undercuts the persistent claim that 72 percent of those killed in Gaza are women and children—a problem that has worsened since it was first noted by a Washington Institute report in January.

The result is that MOH statistics do not appear to offer a reliable guide to the actual Palestinian death toll even by the “foggy” standards of normal wartime reporting. Journalists, analysts, and government officials need to be aware that the actual overall death toll may be significantly higher (or, less likely, lower) than what the MOH has reported; the demographic composition of these fatalities is certainly far different than what the MOH claims.

Building a Database

To assess this problem, the author has assembled a comprehensive collection of publicly available Gaza fatality data that includes:

  • Daily updates covering the period October 7 through March 21, obtained from four sources: the Hamas-run MOH in Gaza, the Hamas-run GMO, the Palestinian Authority Ministry of Health in Ramallah, and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) (which simply relays Gaza MOH/GMO claims, sometimes inaccurately).
  • Compiled data from thirteen Health Sector Emergency Reports published by the Gaza MOH between December 11 and March 18 (these documents can be accessed via the MOH Telegram channel or the Internet Archive).
  • Two comprehensive MOH data releases on October 26 and January 7 (the latter covering up to November 2 for all of Gaza and up to January 5 for the south).

The following analysis is based primarily on the Health Sector Emergency Reports and occasional GMO updates.

Download a condensed version of the author’s database (Excel).

(The full database with sources, methodology, and other information will be published on a future date.)

Limitations of Media Reports

The regular methodology used by the MOH (hereafter the “central collection system”) records deaths at hospitals and morgues, along with deaths reported by the Palestinian Red Crescent Society ambulance service and other unspecified sources (for a more detailed explanation of these practices, see the author’s January study). This methodology is well-understood and has been relatively accurate in the past.

Unlike in previous conflicts, however, neither OCHA nor local and international NGOs are currently conducting real-time fatality verification in Gaza or attempting to distinguish between civilians and combatants. Moreover, only a third of Gaza’s hospitals are even partially functional, and many parts of the Strip have serious access problems, curtailing the use of this methodology to count deaths outside of Rafah and Khan Yunis governorates.

On November 10, the MOH announced that it could no longer report deaths from two northern governorates; a month later, officials acknowledged that they were relying on what they called “reliable media sources” to report deaths in those areas. In reality, they had begun using this methodology as early as November 3, according to the MOH dataset released on January 7.

To be sure, it is not uncommon to use news reports when attempting to count deaths in chaotic battlespaces with access issues and damaged institutions. Yet this practice is notoriously difficult and typically looks backward rather than attempting a real-time count. The reliability of any such effort is greatly dependent on its methodological details, but the MOH has refused to elaborate on how it collects this data—a major problem given that media reports have become the dominant input in the Gaza death toll, accounting for more than 14,000 reported fatalities.

Chart illustrating trends in Gaza fatality statistics.

Comparing the Methodologies

Despite known problems with the MOH central collection system (outlined in more detail in the author’s January study), it is the more reliable methodology because it involves identity verification and counting of actual bodies. Media reports, by contrast, are much more difficult to verify, regularly lack details necessary to determine the identities or disposition of those killed, and may double-count or miss many fatalities. The divergence between the two methodologies is perhaps best shown by how differently they have reported demographic details about Gaza deaths.

For instance, the MOH Health Sector Emergency Reports provide separate data on men, women, and children when their deaths are recorded through the central collection system, but only a single aggregated figure for deaths gleaned from media reports. When these reports coincide with the GMO’s periodic reports (which provide demographic breakdowns), one can compare how they treat fatalities among different demographic groups.

Chart illustrating trends in Gaza fatality statistics.

This comparison reveals sharp differences—most notably, a sixfold decrease in adult male fatalities recorded from media reports and a fourfold increase in child fatalities. (For reference, children make up roughly 50% of Gaza’s population, and men and women make up a quarter each.) Some of these differences may be explained by the fact that media reports are unlikely to capture combatant deaths accurately due to access issues and fear of retribution for exposing Hamas losses. In most cases, however, the numbers are too far apart to be reconcilable, or too divorced from the realities on the ground to be credible.

For example, according to the media reports methodology, only 1,192 men had been killed in northern and central Gaza as of March 18, despite four and a half months of heavy ground fighting (see the author’s condensed database). Five days later, that number inexplicably decreased to 1,170—a feat that would have required 22 men to somehow come back to life by March 23 in order to reconcile the central collection system data with the overall claim. In contrast, Israeli authorities estimate that 13,000 militants have been killed—a figure that may incorporate many combatant deaths not recorded by either MOH methodology.

Without clarification from the MOH, such findings suggest significant omission or manipulation aimed at understating the number of men killed and overstating the number of children killed. One possibility is that fatalities among militants—most of whom are men—are more likely to go unreported because they occur in tunnels or on battlefields, where most reporters are either unable to access bodies or unwilling to risk Hamas retribution or the dangers of combat zones. Another possibility is active manipulation—that is, using the media reports methodology as a smokescreen for altering the data in support of the claim that 72% of those killed are women and children.

Meanwhile, data from the central collection system indicates a sharp decrease in overall deaths since November and a sustained increase in the proportion of men killed.

Chart illustrating trends in Gaza fatality statistics.

Chart illustrating trends in Gaza fatality statistics.

In addition to the MOH’s growing reliance on the media reports methodology, these trends may reflect various factors on the ground, such as Israel’s shift from a primarily air-based campaign to ground fighting, the mass evacuation of civilians from the north to Rafah governorate, and the decreasing intensity of fighting in areas where the central collection system is still functioning. Such factors would be expected to reduce overall civilian casualties and therefore increase the proportion of adult men killed, since that is the demographic most likely to serve as combatants.

Caveats and Recommendations

This analysis is solely intended to compare various Hamas fatality claims against each other and raise questions about the resultant discrepancies. It makes no claims about the true death toll in Gaza or the civilian-combatant ratio, nor is it meant to distract from the very real and widespread loss of life in Gaza and the severe humanitarian crisis that its population continues to suffer.

Regarding the overrepresentation of men in the fatality statistics, this point is not intended to imply that all Gazan men are militants. Rather, adult men are the most likely to be militants across any group (though Hamas is known to use children in combat and support roles). Their overrepresentation has also been used to help estimate militant deaths in the past.

Caveats aside, the above findings should prompt analysts, media outlets, and government officials to bear the following points in mind when assessing Gaza fatality statistics:

  • The discrepancies between the methodologies for counting fatalities warrant much more intense scrutiny and should be paired with appropriate caveats if cited. Whether through passive omission, active manipulation, or both, the Gaza Health Ministry’s media reports methodology significantly understates the number of men killed and may overstate the number of children killed.
  • The repeated claim that 72% of the dead are women and children is very likely incorrect. Data from the central collection system indicates that 58% of those killed since the start of the war are women and children; this figure drops to 48% for those killed since November 3. For the 72% claim to be accurate, women and children would have to make up about 90% of deaths recorded from media reports. This proportion is implausible—men comprise a quarter of the population, and these fatalities have largely occurred in areas with fewer civilians and more combatants, most of whom are adult men.
  • Data from both methodologies suggests that the war has decreased in intensity. Fatalities have declined from an average of 348 per day in the first weeks of the war to around 85 per day in March.
  • The existing data is too limited to allow for definitive conclusions about the true death toll or the civilian-combatant ratio. A high proportion of reported deaths come from an unknown methodology that may be misrepresenting the data, while enormous uncertainty persists regarding how many combatant fatalities go uncounted in tunnels and other battlespaces. The exact proportions of men, women, and children killed are even more unclear. The available data does not allow for reliable estimates about the ratio of civilians to combatants killed either, whether independently or by comparison with Israeli estimates.

Gabriel Epstein is a research assistant in The Washington Institute’s Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations.

fatality-demographics-methodology-POL385

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Not a comment on the credibility of the methods or findings, but just traditional disclosures FYI for the readers: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy is an academic think tank that was founded by AIPAC. 

Edited by Anastasis
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3 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Came for news.  Leaving because of same propagandists that dominate CR thread. 

This the kind of mfer that calls up a restaurant to tell them he's never coming back even though they have no idea who he is and don't give a shit.

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1 minute ago, Parliament said:

Kinda like we did in Beirut?  What geopolitical interest do we have in putting our fighting men/women directly in harm’s way, between two adversaries who hate each other to literally commit genocide and war crimes?

No, the article states no US troops go in.

I think any force would be Turks, North Africans, Indians, Brazil/Uruguay. The usual PKO providers. US/NATO would do heavy logistics and intel support. Drones, etc. Similar to what we are pushing for Haiti.

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I would not say never, but it will take a lot of time.  The comparison (not perfect) I would draw would be the Irish/IRA situation in the past.  We would have said similar things about that, but in the end I think what fixed it was prosperity.  When people have jobs, opportunities, a future they think they can get for themselves and their children they will not focus on killing others, but on the kitchen remodel they want, or the new car, or school opportunities for their kids.
How to do that and actually get money to be provided and then to have it not be stolen and to be used for the intended purpose.....well

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Founder of World Central Kitchen Says Several Workers Killed in Gaza Airstrike
The disaster relief nonprofit has become a crucial source of food for desperate Gazans. The Israeli military said it was investigating.

International aid workers from World Central Kitchen, a disaster relief nonprofit that has become a crucial source of food for desperate Gazans, were killed in an airstrike in Gaza, according to José Andrés, the chef who founded the organization.

Mr. Andrés said on the X platform that “several of our sisters and brothers” were killed in the airstrike, which was reported late Monday in Deir al-Balah, a city in central Gaza. He said the Israeli military had carried out the strike, though that could not be immediately confirmed.

Graphic video footage from the aftermath showed five dead bodies, three of which had passports on their chests identifying them as citizens of Poland, Australia and Britain. Some of the victims wore protective gear with visible World Central Kitchen patches. The nationalities of the other two could not be immediately confirmed.

The Israeli military said in a statement early Tuesday that it was “conducting a thorough review at the highest levels to understand the circumstances of this tragic incident.”

The military said it “makes extensive efforts to enable the safe delivery of humanitarian aid, and has been working closely with W.C.K. in their vital efforts to provide food and humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia said that the country’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade was “urgently investigating” the reports that an Australian aid worker had been killed.

“I’m very concerned about the loss of life that is occurring in Gaza,” he said. “My government has supported a sustainable cease-fire, we’ve called for the release of hostages, and there have been far too many innocent lives — Palestinian and Israeli — lost during the Gaza-Hamas conflict.”

World Central Kitchen has become a key organization in the perilous, politically fraught efforts to distribute humanitarian aid to desperate Gazans. Israel has severely limited the aid that reaches Gaza through land crossings, leaving shipments by sea as an increasingly important means of delivering food to the enclave. A vessel carrying 400 tons of food left Cyprus for Gaza on Saturday.  

The Israeli military has said that it provided security and coordination to the organization in prior operations.

World Central Kitchen said in a statement on Monday that it was “aware of reports” that its staff members were killed “in an I.D.F. attack while working to support our humanitarian food delivery efforts in Gaza,” referring to the Israel Defense Forces.

“This is a tragedy,” the organization said. “Humanitarian aid workers and civilians should never be a target. Ever.”

Mr. Andrés said in his social media post that the Israeli government “needs to stop this indiscriminate killing.

“It needs to stop restricting humanitarian aid, stop killing civilians and aid workers, and stop using food as a weapon.”

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30 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Founder of World Central Kitchen Says Several Workers Killed in Gaza Airstrike
The disaster relief nonprofit has become a crucial source of food for desperate Gazans. The Israeli military said it was investigating.

International aid workers from World Central Kitchen, a disaster relief nonprofit that has become a crucial source of food for desperate Gazans, were killed in an airstrike in Gaza, according to José Andrés, the chef who founded the organization.

Mr. Andrés said on the X platform that “several of our sisters and brothers” were killed in the airstrike, which was reported late Monday in Deir al-Balah, a city in central Gaza. He said the Israeli military had carried out the strike, though that could not be immediately confirmed.

Graphic video footage from the aftermath showed five dead bodies, three of which had passports on their chests identifying them as citizens of Poland, Australia and Britain. Some of the victims wore protective gear with visible World Central Kitchen patches. The nationalities of the other two could not be immediately confirmed.

The Israeli military said in a statement early Tuesday that it was “conducting a thorough review at the highest levels to understand the circumstances of this tragic incident.”

The military said it “makes extensive efforts to enable the safe delivery of humanitarian aid, and has been working closely with W.C.K. in their vital efforts to provide food and humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia said that the country’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade was “urgently investigating” the reports that an Australian aid worker had been killed.

“I’m very concerned about the loss of life that is occurring in Gaza,” he said. “My government has supported a sustainable cease-fire, we’ve called for the release of hostages, and there have been far too many innocent lives — Palestinian and Israeli — lost during the Gaza-Hamas conflict.”

World Central Kitchen has become a key organization in the perilous, politically fraught efforts to distribute humanitarian aid to desperate Gazans. Israel has severely limited the aid that reaches Gaza through land crossings, leaving shipments by sea as an increasingly important means of delivering food to the enclave. A vessel carrying 400 tons of food left Cyprus for Gaza on Saturday.  

The Israeli military has said that it provided security and coordination to the organization in prior operations.

World Central Kitchen said in a statement on Monday that it was “aware of reports” that its staff members were killed “in an I.D.F. attack while working to support our humanitarian food delivery efforts in Gaza,” referring to the Israel Defense Forces.

“This is a tragedy,” the organization said. “Humanitarian aid workers and civilians should never be a target. Ever.”

Mr. Andrés said in his social media post that the Israeli government “needs to stop this indiscriminate killing.

“It needs to stop restricting humanitarian aid, stop killing civilians and aid workers, and stop using food as a weapon.”

Horrible. 
 

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Meanwhile, it's always a sign that you're on the right side when you start passing laws to eject more media from your country. Clock is ticking, Bibi, enjoy prison.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-01/ty-article/netanyahu-pushes-ahead-law-for-immediate-shutdown-of-al-jazeera-in-israel/0000018e-99f0-de2c-afff-bbf8be670000

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Posted (edited)

Haaretz reporting three drone strikes, knocking out three vehicles in sequence as the aid workers fled from one to the other. The convoy was travelling on an approved route that had been coordinated with IDF. Israeli security sources say that they observed an armed individual travelling with the convoy earlier in the day, before the convoy stopped at their supply warehouse. The vehicle that was carrying the armed individual was not part of the convoy when it was struck. WCK suspending their Gaza operations, and the ship they had sailing from Cyprus with aid has turned around.

Here is a google translate image lifted from twatter.

image.thumb.png.c517cd19a40fe964355f7b8aecfb5073.png

 

Edited by Anastasis
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1 hour ago, hookem2010 said:

Is Israel trying to completely get rid of all the goodwill and sympathy built up immediately following the Hamas attacks? Because they're doing a pretty good job of it.

Yeah, this is going to probably hurt their cause more than anything they have done to date.  Going to get a ton of negative publicity.  They fucked this up royally.

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