Israel-Hamas war thread

[Rex Kramer 1338]

21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

For example, even for a religion/culture that I presume you despise, hospitality of the table is a central.

You’re so full of shit on multiple fronts. You are one presumptuous, bombastic blowhard.

[Brisketexan 105142]

2 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

You’re so full of shit on multiple fronts. You are one presumptuous, bombastic blowhard.

I'd argue with that if I could.

But I'm still right about what I posted.  Broken clock being right twice a day, and all that.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I'd argue with that if I could.

But I'm still right about what I posted.  Broken clock being right twice a day, and all that.

You’re right about the assumption that I’m genocidal and hate Palestinians?  No, you’re an obnoxious pompous fuckhead

Edited October 1 by Rex Kramer

[Brian Fantana 6689]

Man I wish Rex the CR poster would stop shitting up the thread

[956 Worldwide 34715]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

ISIS in Iraq is still there. They are not defeated. You have to defeat an enemy for true victory. It is why the US cannot ever win the war on extreme terrorism. Does this mean don't fight it? Fuck no. Hammer them.

But it is not victory.

What is victory over Hezbollah and Hamas in your opinion? How does Israel get there? Happy to move this to the CR so this thread can be only news.

 

None of us really know how to do COIN it turns out, despite however many gallons of ink we have spilled.  These groups can’t be destroyed but can be eroded down to be less existential.  The problem is that everyone has to do something they don’t want to do and have strong stomachs:

- Israel has to show a real commitment to a permanent solution that involves a state for Palestinians and an end to West Bank settlements. 
 

- The “international community” needs to ruthlessly limit what they do for Gaza— nothing beyond the absolute minimum to avoid famine and plague— until at a minimum Hamas agrees to hold elections, disarm, and renounce aims to destroy Israel. At the same time, reward better actors in WB.  The humanitarian complex is toxic where terror groups dominate, outsiders provide services and jobs and completely relieve any pressure on groups like Hamas or Hezbollah to govern beyond planning attacks. 

- Some multinational force with the authority to disarm and destroy hold-out cells has to be created to maintain security in Gaza and maybe Southern Lebanon. Peacekeepers won’t do, it has to be seek and destroy for terrorists and security for locals. 

- The U.S. and Arab nations have to be wiling to bite hard when malign actors like Iran look to arm proxies, preventing weapons shipments up to and including kinetic actions on ships and airplanes. And there has to be a complete strangulation on anyone financing these groups. And there needs to be real political costs to Israel if they refuse to play along on point one. 
 

 None of this will happen because there is significant inertia to just keep having war or punting the ball as opposed to taking any of these difficult actions. 

[Scary Stranger 1714]

Again, this is just a lazy, unserious, blanket justification for anything Israel does. It's the same kind of tepid bullshit diarrhea we had to listen to coming out of George W. Bush's mouth to justify the Iraq war.
Not a single person in this thread is saying they shouldn't go after Hezbollah, just that if their goal is to actually end that organization, doing the exact same shit that caused it to form in the first place might not be a great idea.

My comment has fuck-all to do with Israel or their actions. My point is it doesn’t matter what they do or do not do, so no change in environment is going to make a squirt of piss of a difference. I couldn’t care less if they are a country other than it gives the M.E. someone to hate other than us.

[statsman 5470]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Iran has, functionally, had their bluff called.  And they don't have shit for cards.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-n-agency-issues-fresh-warning-over-iranian-nuclear-activities-509ba50f?st=SZqoUU&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

Edited October 1 by statsman

[Brian Fantana 6689]

23 minutes ago, Scary Stranger said:

My comment has fuck-all to do with Israel or their actions. My point is it doesn’t matter what they do or do not do, so no change in environment is going to make a squirt of piss of a difference. I couldn’t care less if they are a country other than it gives the M.E. someone to hate other than us.

Then why are you even posting in this thread and what are we arguing about?

[Sawbonz 27562]

5 hours ago, Bevo said:

 

All opinions are borderline CR to CR - that is the reason @immamac tries keeping DT for news only. As for arguing with CR personalities, my issue is that it is like arguing with attorneys - no one has time for that shit - and no one has the desire for that shit.

How do you post “news” about this shit without putting it in the context of the geopolitics? I would argue one can’t. One can be a whiny titty baby when other posters don’t follow one’s preconceived notions about which side is “right”

 

Here’s a litmus test: if the “news” someone links or posts in this thread 100% of the time paints one side as the angel and the other side as the devil, that poster should not be crying “CR” in a thread such as this. 

[Rex Kramer 1338]

27 minutes ago, statsman said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-n-agency-issues-fresh-warning-over-iranian-nuclear-activities-509ba50f?st=SZqoUU&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

I’m sure why you’d question brisket. He said they didn’t have any cards. That link is over a month old and clearly from a biased source. 

[Bevo 13577]

23 minutes ago, statsman said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-n-agency-issues-fresh-warning-over-iranian-nuclear-activities-509ba50f?st=SZqoUU&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

It sounds like Israel's next move is ground forces against Hezbollah. At some point though, it needs to go after Iran's nuclear capabilities. Now is the time to strike when proxy forces are incapacitated. The current US administration may help some with intelligence but it would also probably disclose Israel's plans if they were made available because of fears of escalation. And I don't see any way the international community would get actively involved like it did with the strong embargo against Iran a decade ago. Israel is going to have to go it alone with golf claps from everyone who doesn't want a nuclear Iran.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

37 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Israel has to show a real commitment to a permanent solution that involves a state for Palestinians

Where?

[Brian Fantana 6689]

36 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

None of us really know how to do COIN it turns out, despite however many gallons of ink we have spilled.  These groups can’t be destroyed but can be eroded down to be less existential.  The problem is that everyone has to do something they don’t want to do and have strong stomachs:

- Israel has to show a real commitment to a permanent solution that involves a state for Palestinians and an end to West Bank settlements. 
 

- The “international community” needs to ruthlessly limit what they do for Gaza— nothing beyond the absolute minimum to avoid famine and plague— until at a minimum Hamas agrees to hold elections, disarm, and renounce aims to destroy Israel. At the same time, reward better actors in WB.  The humanitarian complex is toxic where terror groups dominate, outsiders provide services and jobs and completely relieve any pressure on groups like Hamas or Hezbollah to govern beyond planning attacks. 

- Some multinational force with the authority to disarm and destroy hold-out cells has to be created to maintain security in Gaza and maybe Southern Lebanon. Peacekeepers won’t do, it has to be seek and destroy for terrorists and security for locals. 

- The U.S. and Arab nations have to be wiling to bite hard when malign actors like Iran look to arm proxies, preventing weapons shipments up to and including kinetic actions on ships and airplanes. And there has to be a complete strangulation on anyone financing these groups. And there needs to be real political costs to Israel if they refuse to play along on point one. 
 

 None of this will happen because there is significant inertia to just keep having war or punting the ball as opposed to taking any of these difficult actions. 

Yeah, this is what I mean when I say that terrorist groups ultimately have to be defeated politically, and why I've often said it's a difficult path but a feasible one. Good post, thank you.

[Bevo 13577]

Quote

- The U.S. and Arab nations have to be wiling to bite hard when malign actors like Iran look to arm proxies, preventing weapons shipments up to and including kinetic actions on ships and airplanes. And there has to be a complete strangulation on anyone financing these groups.

We did pretty well a decade ago with sanctions against Iran, but that coalition began showing cracks because of oil and gas. And the focus was more on slowing Iran's nuclear program than trying to end Iran's proxies. However, the financial implications of the sanctions weakened the proxies even if they weren't the target.

So, sanctions could work again to stop the proxies. But when Western countries need natural resources and profits can be made by dealing with Iran, putting together sanctions seems improbable. And I don't think very many countries are interested in escalating things in the middle east. The world, I think, is pretty satisfied with the status quo and with Russian oil and gas offline, middle east oil and gas becomes more vital to Western interests. This is especially true in the US where the administration can't afford a spike in oil and gas prices before elections. But the same could be said in Germany or the UK or a whole host of other countries at other times during the year.

So, this is a long-winded way to say that the world is fine with sanctions in theory but it won't jointly attack Iran if Iran is a bad actor. And sanctions won't happen because money and consequences.

[InkaUtexas 25942]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

None of us really know how to do COIN it turns out, despite however many gallons of ink we have spilled.  These groups can’t be destroyed but can be eroded down to be less existential.  The problem is that everyone has to do something they don’t want to do and have strong stomachs:

- Israel has to show a real commitment to a permanent solution that involves a state for Palestinians and an end to West Bank settlements. 
 

- The “international community” needs to ruthlessly limit what they do for Gaza— nothing beyond the absolute minimum to avoid famine and plague— until at a minimum Hamas agrees to hold elections, disarm, and renounce aims to destroy Israel. At the same time, reward better actors in WB.  The humanitarian complex is toxic where terror groups dominate, outsiders provide services and jobs and completely relieve any pressure on groups like Hamas or Hezbollah to govern beyond planning attacks. 

- Some multinational force with the authority to disarm and destroy hold-out cells has to be created to maintain security in Gaza and maybe Southern Lebanon. Peacekeepers won’t do, it has to be seek and destroy for terrorists and security for locals. 

- The U.S. and Arab nations have to be wiling to bite hard when malign actors like Iran look to arm proxies, preventing weapons shipments up to and including kinetic actions on ships and airplanes. And there has to be a complete strangulation on anyone financing these groups. And there needs to be real political costs to Israel if they refuse to play along on point one. 
 

 None of this will happen because there is significant inertia to just keep having war or punting the ball as opposed to taking any of these difficult actions. 

Some very good points. I would like to discuss. But not news so nah.

29 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Where?

Your house? That work for you?

[InkaUtexas 25942]

29 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Yeah, this is what I mean when I say that terrorist groups ultimately have to be defeated politically, and why I've often said it's a difficult path but a feasible one. Good post, thank you.

One of the only places this has happened in the past 40 years, and I know this board will hate this example, is El Salvador. The FMLN and the Military signed accords. Within 2 elections the FMLN had power. They did not keep it, and now the country is kind of back to a dictatorship with a growing economy and tackled rampant crime.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Some very good points. I would like to discuss. But not news so nah.

Your house? That work for you?

I’ve asked several times and zero response. It’s a very important question. 

[InkaUtexas 25942]

4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I’ve asked several times and zero response. It’s a very important question. 

They are not going anywhere Rex. So here are the options. Status quo. Some sort of peace. Ethnic Cleansing.

 

[Rex Kramer 1338]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

They are not going anywhere Rex. So here are the options. Status quo. Some sort of peace. Ethnic Cleansing.

 

Figured someone would respond that way as it’s really the only logical move. Israel won’t allow it to happen.  

[totallynotabuttpirate 5400]

Love how Surly is going to solve a problem that has existed for 1000s of years. 

[Brisketexan 105142]

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-n-agency-issues-fresh-warning-over-iranian-nuclear-activities-509ba50f?st=SZqoUU&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

I’m sure why you’d question brisket. He said they didn’t have any cards. That link is over a month old and clearly from a biased source. 

A card you can’t play isn’t a card at all.
Let’s say Iran could prepare….and deliver…1-2 nukes to Israel. How do you think that ends for Iran? Israel has dozens. Iran is gone. Every city in Iran is obliterated. There is no Iran anymore.
So, no. They don’t have any cards they can play.

[InkaUtexas 25942]

3 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Love how Surly is going to solve a problem that has existed for 1000s of years. 

[Brian Fantana 6689]

2 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Love how Surly is going to solve a problem that has existed for 1000s of years. 

 

[InkaUtexas 25942]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

A card you can’t play isn’t a card at all.
Let’s say Iran could prepare….and deliver…1-2 nukes to Israel. How do you think that ends for Iran? Israel has dozens. Iran is gone. Every city in Iran is obliterated. There is no Iran anymore.
So, no. They don’t have any cards they can play.

 

if Regime gives zero fucks since all those virgins are waiting, do they care?

8 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Figured someone would respond that way as it’s really the only logical move. Israel won’t allow it to happen.  

Which one? Those are options.

[Brisketexan 105142]

They care. That regime very much cares about surviving.

[DDD Dad 14339]

6 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Happy to move this to the CR so this thread can be only news.

 

[InkaUtexas 25942]

4 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I tried. Just cannot do it. Not entering that discussion going on. Damn I thought this one was going no where.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

35 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

if Regime gives zero fucks since all those virgins are waiting, do they care?

Which one? Those are options.

Status quo, peace, wait and see how Palestinians develop. 

Regime is a nutjob theocracy. I tend to agree they wouldn’t choose their homeland being scorched earth.  I also don’t think Israel can be as flippant as brisket. 

[SL Xpress 7514]

12 hours ago, Bevo said:

 

I understand the pessimism, but this has led to the destruction of the instrument that Iran used to protect itself. Without Hezbollah and Hamas, and with crappy air defenses, Iran is totally vulnerable to an air assault on, for example, Iran's entire nuclear program. If Israel were ever to strike Iran's nuclear program, now would be the time. And if Iran tried to do anything about it, it could lead to a lack of arms for the replacements of Hezbollah and Hamas for many years. Meanwhile, Lebanon and Syria can finally rid themselves of their largest impediments to democracy. Not saying that it will happen, but it could happen, which we haven't been able to say for a long, long time. If democracies did develop, which is doubtful, Israel would find itself on a new road to peace in the region.

I do not believe Syria will ever have a democracy in my lifetime, any more than I feel Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, Bahrain, or any number of other Arab Spring countries. I feel like it's silly to aspire to. I had high hopes for Tunisia, but they've been dashed.

First there would need to be some kind of reinterpretation of the Koran. I don't think that's achievable accept in an authoritarian state with a single ruler who can help encourage a clerical school of thought more amenable to democracy. Or there would need to be a completely secular rule a la Kemal style with the military in charge of bringing about a coup any time the Islamists take power. 

But a grass roots democratic movement is doomed to be taken over by Islamists who mandate the application and enforcement of Sharia law.

I always felt it was a massive mistake to declare establishing democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq as chief aims of those wars. 

I don't even think of it as pessimism, although I understand why someone else would see it that way. The Palestinians were displaced. It's seen as an injustice in the Arab and Pan Muslim world. More than that, it's not just seen as an injustice, but as a symbol of the Muslim world's impotence that they haven't been able to do anything about it. If only they were ruled by a Caliphate under a united banner. There will always be plenty of aspirants for that position. 

[PRONG HORN 3146]

 

 

Quote

 

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in an interview with CNN Turkey said that Iran’s secret services had created a special unit to combat Mossad operating in Iran. However, turns out the head of this unit was himself a Mossad agent, along with 20 other agents, who were responsible for multiple intelligence operations in Iran including stealing nuclear docs and assassinating several Iranian nuclear scientists before allegedly fleeing to Israel

 

 

 

 

[gsoda3 3262]

What has Ahmadinejad been doing and why is he saying this now?

[PRONG HORN 3146]

 

speech

Spoiler

Netanyahu addresses the Iranian people:

 

“I speak a lot about the leaders of Iran. Yet at this pivotal moment, I want to address you, the people of Iran. I want to do so directly, without filters, without middlemen. Every day, you see a regime that subjugates you make fiery speeches about defending Lebanon, defending Gaza. Yet every day, that regime plunges our region deeper into darkness and deeper into war.

Every day, their puppets are eliminated. Ask Mohammed Dev. Ask Nasrallah. There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach. There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country.

With every passing moment, the regime is bringing you, the noble Persian people, closer to the abyss. The vast majority of Iranians know their regime doesn't care a whit about them. If it did care, if it cared about you, it would stop wasting 1,000,000,000 of dollars on feudal wars across the Middle East. It would start improving your lives. Imagine if all the vast money the regime wasted on nuclear weapons and foreign wars were invested in your children's education and improving your health care and building your nation's infrastructure, water, sewage, all the other things that you need.

Imagine that. But you know one simple thing. Iran's tyrants don't care about your future, but you do. When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think, everything will be different. Our 2 ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace.

Our 2 countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace. When that day comes, the terror network that the regime built in 5 continents will be bankrupt, dismantled. Iran will thrive as never before. Global investment, massive tourism, brilliant technological innovation based on the tremendous talents that exist inside Iran. Doesn't that sound better than endless poverty, repression, and war?

From Khome to Isfahan, from Shiraz to Tiberise, there are tens of millions of good and decent people with 1,000 of years of history behind them and a brilliant future ahead of them. Don't let a small group of fanatic theocrats crush your hopes and your dreams. You deserve better. Your children deserve better. The entire world deserves better.

I know you don't support the rapists and murderers of Hamas and Hezbollah, but your leaders do. You deserve more. The people of Iran should know Israel stands with you. May we together know a future of prosperity and peace.”

 

[Brian Fantana 6689]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

I do not believe Syria will ever have a democracy in my lifetime, any more than I feel Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, Bahrain, or any number of other Arab Spring countries. I feel like it's silly to aspire to. I had high hopes for Tunisia, but they've been dashed.

First there would need to be some kind of reinterpretation of the Koran. I don't think that's achievable accept in an authoritarian state with a single ruler who can help encourage a clerical school of thought more amenable to democracy. Or there would need to be a completely secular rule a la Kemal style with the military in charge of bringing about a coup any time the Islamists take power. 

But a grass roots democratic movement is doomed to be taken over by Islamists who mandate the application and enforcement of Sharia law.

I always felt it was a massive mistake to declare establishing democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq as chief aims of those wars. 

I don't even think of it as pessimism, although I understand why someone else would see it that way. The Palestinians were displaced. It's seen as an injustice in the Arab and Pan Muslim world. More than that, it's not just seen as an injustice, but as a symbol of the Muslim world's impotence that they haven't been able to do anything about it. If only they were ruled by a Caliphate under a united banner. There will always be plenty of aspirants for that position. 

Support for democracy in the Arab world has steadily increased year over year, and remains very popular. Only a small percentage believe that Islam is incompatible with democracy, according to the largest public opinion surveys in the Arab world. But, of course, it doesn't really make a shit what the people want or believe, and the situation is far more complicated than that.

The reality is, allowing functional democracies in the Middle East runs counter to US interests. Excluding Israel's [very] flawed democracy, Iraq is the closest, and it leans heavily toward the "very authoritarian" side of the scale. Our past/current actions and the policies we maintain on the region, while not explicitly, effectively prohibit such a thing from ever occurring. We allow Israel to present itself a sort of beacon of democracy, and maintain the facade that we represent some sort of a bulwark against authoritarian forces, but it's basically all a lie. A functioning Middle East democracy can act autonomously against US interests, and that cannot be allowed.

Our history in the region entirely backs up that assertion, and you can bet your ass the minute Israel started acting in a way contrary to US interests, their leaders would discover what FAFO really means, really quickly. I'm not saying they're ever going to do that, but I'm just using them as an example of how shit can go south real quick for any Middle Eastern country that crosses us in the wrong way. People think that Israel is the real darling over there, but the only country that can really get away with shit like that is Saudi Arabia. For now.

At any rate, you're right, the whole world could see through the lie about Afghanistan and Iraq. It was goofy as hell to try and pretend we gave a shit about establishing democracy. I share your pessimism, albeit for different reasons it seems.

e: I will also say that there's a lot of CR in this post [and yours] and I don't give a single shit. You can't discuss this kind of thing without delving into regional geopolitics, so whoever's going to cry about that, suck my dick.

Edited October 1 by Brian Fantana

[Hook1997 5354]

22 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Support for democracy in the Arab world has steadily increased year over year, and remains very popular. Only a small percentage believe that Islam is incompatible with democracy

You could have just stopped there because ALL the power in those countries is with the 25-30% small percentage that believe that.  

[Brian Fantana 6689]

4 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

You could have just stopped there because ALL the power in those countries is with the 25-30% small percentage that believe that.  

Agreed, I'm just slightly pushing back on the implication that democracy is incompatible with Islam. It's only incompatible with extremists and/or authoritarians. Also, the number is closer to 20% but that's just quibbling.

[atomheartbevo 89670]

7 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Not a single person in this thread is saying they shouldn't go after Hezbollah, just that if their goal is to actually end that organization, doing the exact same shit that caused it to form in the first place might not be a great idea.

They've never done to Hamas and Hezbollah in the past, what they've done over the past month or so - decapitated the leadership and removed a lot of institutional knowledge in such a short amount of time, and gutted their comms.

And now Netanyahu seems to be saying that it's not going to stop with Hamas and Hezbollah, that Iranian leadership will potentially be coming off the bench and entering the game whether they want to or not, or at the very least, Israel will be creating some kind of divide between Iran and Hezbollah/Hamas. Whether that's stopping the weapons and money or just creating enough chaos that Hezbollah can no longer function as a proxy for Iran, who knows.

But that last part is key - that is not something that Israel has done in the past, been able to disrupt the connection between Iran and Hezbollah/Hamas.

And they most likely will have some help, indirect probably, from the US and other countries who want Iran taken down a few pegs to help Ukraine out.

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

11 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Happy to move this to the CR so this thread can be only news.

 

If only it were that easy, the culture warriors will just slither back to get their serotonin hits. Straight trash.

 

14 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

I wouldn't celebrate before crossing the goal line. Israeli invasions of Lebanon have not exactly gone well in the past.

 

13 hours ago, Conqueeftador said:

Sorry for your loss. 

 

Dude's butthole sweats for terrorists.

 

[InkaUtexas 25942]

@Brian Fantana So much I would like to get into in your post about democracy but no time this AM. Will try and remember this evening.

1- You keep thinking of the region as Arab. It is very different from area to area. North Africa could pull off Democracy. It was not the US who fucked up the Arab Spring. Look across the little Sea to the north. Lumping them together is like saying all Latinos are the same. Guatemala ain't mexico culturally. Sure as shit Argentina/Brazil/Peru/Chile have much in common with Mexico except for the spanish legacy (catholic church and history of caudillo rule.) it is fine for geographical association but does not work at all when talking politics, history, etc.

2- Afghanistan could have worked. Democracy is something Afghans understand and appreciate. Loya Jirga, their system of government is very democratic. The two major failures were the surge with conventional forces and pushing what WE, the US, thought was important. The brain trust in State and USAID did not try and understand the culture. When I would lecture on the country I would tell people to forget reading shit about the brits and read persian poetry and if in Engish, Michner's book Caravans (especially the chapter about bridges). Afghans were never in the South (Pashtunistan) going to have equal rights as fast as we wanted them to. USAID is still trying to push women's rights there. I mean TODAY. There is a project titled Women in Agriculture. Problem. Women traditionally do not, and never have, worked in Agriculture. Oh and the Taliban are now in power. @956 Worldwide knows what I mean.

3- You know who does not give a fuck about democracy in the region? Arab leaders. I am looking mainly at the GCC States. What is now propping them up? Chinese investments into sand dominos selling 99 year leases to fat brits and high caste Indians. We prop them up for a few reasons. We inherited the leadership and structure and we like oil/natural gas. Plus they look like land aircraft carriers. We like those.

This tread can get contentious, but for the next 11 days can we just agree OU SUCKS?

 

 

[Laxtonto 12080]

I think people are underestimating the intelligence capital spent by Israel in all of this and why they keep grinding forward on the information they have.

Like anything in that is perishable, information has a shelf life. Worst the ability to harvest that information is subject to whims of the environment around it.

Israel has in effect expended most of their information resources to deliver a massive debilitating blow and now will be on the backside of the information curve as the means and sources used to gather that intelligence has been severely compromised in Lebanon and the rest of the Arab world. All around the Middle East you should see regime-wide security reviews, SOP shakeups, communication protocol changes, and a re-vetting of all personnel with access to sensitive people, locations, comms, and information. That is going to seriously hamper future intelligent gathering.

What Israel has going for it is massive chaos in the leadership structure and a fear of communication devices, which will keep Lebanon and to some extent Iran from being organized and keep them reactionary. But like anything else, time will erode that advantage. Therefore Israel must achieve as many of its goals in Lebanon as possible to put Iran in a position that their proxies in Gaza and Lebanon are not viable to keep supporting and doing so puts them at more of a risk than the prestige loss by abandoning them.

[AnTiM 1666]

8 hours ago, PRONG HORN said:

 

speech

  Hide contents

Netanyahu addresses the Iranian people:

 

“I speak a lot about the leaders of Iran. Yet at this pivotal moment, I want to address you, the people of Iran. I want to do so directly, without filters, without middlemen. Every day, you see a regime that subjugates you make fiery speeches about defending Lebanon, defending Gaza. Yet every day, that regime plunges our region deeper into darkness and deeper into war.

Every day, their puppets are eliminated. Ask Mohammed Dev. Ask Nasrallah. There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach. There is nowhere we will not go to protect our people and protect our country.

With every passing moment, the regime is bringing you, the noble Persian people, closer to the abyss. The vast majority of Iranians know their regime doesn't care a whit about them. If it did care, if it cared about you, it would stop wasting 1,000,000,000 of dollars on feudal wars across the Middle East. It would start improving your lives. Imagine if all the vast money the regime wasted on nuclear weapons and foreign wars were invested in your children's education and improving your health care and building your nation's infrastructure, water, sewage, all the other things that you need.

Imagine that. But you know one simple thing. Iran's tyrants don't care about your future, but you do. When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think, everything will be different. Our 2 ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace.

Our 2 countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace. When that day comes, the terror network that the regime built in 5 continents will be bankrupt, dismantled. Iran will thrive as never before. Global investment, massive tourism, brilliant technological innovation based on the tremendous talents that exist inside Iran. Doesn't that sound better than endless poverty, repression, and war?

From Khome to Isfahan, from Shiraz to Tiberise, there are tens of millions of good and decent people with 1,000 of years of history behind them and a brilliant future ahead of them. Don't let a small group of fanatic theocrats crush your hopes and your dreams. You deserve better. Your children deserve better. The entire world deserves better.

I know you don't support the rapists and murderers of Hamas and Hezbollah, but your leaders do. You deserve more. The people of Iran should know Israel stands with you. May we together know a future of prosperity and peace.”

 

Makes sense, but as long as there are people who believe their god is better than someone else's god, they will be killing one another over it.

[atomheartbevo 89670]

2 minutes ago, AnTiM said:

Makes sense, but as long as there are people who believe their god is better than someone else's god, they will be killing one another over it.

 

[Laxtonto 12080]

Maybe I am naive in asking, but how is Lebanon getting all of this weaponry from Iran and around the globe? And how is physically getting to Lebanon, with the various embargos in the region?

[Captainant 27669]

3 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Maybe I am naive in asking, but how is Lebanon getting all of this weaponry from Iran and around the globe? And how is physically getting to Lebanon, with the various embargos in the region?

It bears repeating, this account should be taken with a grain of salt. It has a history of misrepresenting footage from past conflicts as current and is frequently pushing a narrative with it.

[AnTiM 1666]

4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Maybe I am naive in asking, but how is Lebanon getting all of this weaponry from Iran and around the globe? And how is physically getting to Lebanon, with the various embargos in the region?

In the land of the broke, the man with a dollar is king.

[Captainant 27669]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

What Israel has going for it is massive chaos in the leadership structure and a fear of communication devices, which will keep Lebanon and to some extent Iran from being organized and keep them reactionary. But like anything else, time will erode that advantage. Therefore Israel must achieve as many of its goals in Lebanon as possible to put Iran in a position that their proxies in Gaza and Lebanon are not viable to keep supporting and doing so puts them at more of a risk than the prestige loss by abandoning them.

On the other hand, Iran has a metric fuckload of missile bases built under mountains 

Hooray, more escalation! I hear that's the best thing to do in these situations

 

And man the timing is really shit, but apparently our ONLY oiler in the Red Sea is on the fritz. So we can sail our CVN's, but the birds are gas constrained. Good discussion from two retired Navy officers in the spoiler below

Spoiler

 

 

Edited October 1 by Captainant

[babysdaddy 2724]

Ballistic launch from Iran imminent.  Oil spiking.  Last time they tried 300ish missiles they were all shot down.  

[Parliament 14260]

23 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Maybe I am naive in asking, but how is Lebanon getting all of this weaponry from Iran and around the globe? And how is physically getting to Lebanon, with the various embargos in the region?

And they need to check all that ammo for an American head stamp.  

[Rex Kramer 1338]

3 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Ballistic launch from Iran imminent.  Oil spiking.  Last time they tried 300ish missiles they were all shot down.  

That was widely telegraphed, and performative. This feels….different. Iran has been repeatedly de-pants by Israel over the last few years. They’re about to find out. 

Edited October 1 by Rex Kramer

[Brisketexan 105142]

3 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Ballistic launch from Iran imminent.  Oil spiking.  Last time they tried 300ish missiles they were all shot down.  

Iran feels like it has to make a show of force to demonstrate that it's still capable of projecting military power.

But for flailing conventional missile strikes...it is NOT capable of projecting military power, at least in the levant.  Presuming it launches strikes today, it's kabuki theater.

[Armybrat 40846]

11 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

They care. That regime very much cares about surviving.

A coalition of nations need to start arming the Iranian dissidents so they can engage in real pushback against that regime’s Revolutionary Guard.

Then hit their command structure like Israel has done with Hezbollah, plus destroy their nuke program (at least bury it along with its scientists & technicians).