Israel-Hamas war thread

[Laxtonto 12080]

3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

That was widely telegraphed, and performative. This feels….different. Iran has been repeatedly de-pants by Israel over the last few years. They’re about to find out. 

 

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Iran feels like it has to make a show of force to demonstrate that it's still capable of projecting military power.

But for flailing conventional missile strikes...it is NOT capable of projecting military power, at least in the levant.  Presuming it launches strikes today, it's kabuki theater.

All of those tankers aren't up there alone... So once those missile launch bays open, all of those Israel aircraft will begin to launch JASSMs and other fun toys to look to collapse many of those entrenched deep mine launch positions.

 

[babysdaddy 2724]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Iran feels like it has to make a show of force to demonstrate that it's still capable of projecting military power.

But for flailing conventional missile strikes...it is NOT capable of projecting military power, at least in the levant.  Presuming it launches strikes today, it's kabuki theater.

I hope you are correct on this one.  It certainly has been true in the past.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Iran feels like it has to make a show of force to demonstrate that it's still capable of projecting military power.

But for flailing conventional missile strikes...it is NOT capable of projecting military power, at least in the levant.  Presuming it launches strikes today, it's kabuki theater.

Well I was told Iran has no cards to play. Very confidently. 

[Brisketexan 105142]

8 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Well I was told Iran has no cards to play. Very confidently. 

And flashing the deuce that is a barrage of conventional missiles that will inflict little real damage in comparison to what Israel has done to Hezbollah (and thus Iran) in the past two weeks ain't much of a card to play.  Iran cannot do anything that will have much effect.  They can launch a fireworks show.  Cool.  Actual strategic and tactical impact on Israel will almost certainly be de minimis.

[Bevo 13577]

50 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Maybe I am naive in asking, but how is Lebanon getting all of this weaponry from Iran and around the globe? And how is physically getting to Lebanon, with the various embargos in the region?

 

 

Could Ukraine use that stuff? Israel should ship it to them.

[atomheartbevo 89670]

10 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Well I was told Iran has no cards to play. Very confidently. 

They have to save face, and at the same time not give anybody a reason to go after their drone and missile factories (which Russia needs).

Netanyahu's speech for the Iranian people was interesting.

[huge 3793]

2 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

I think people are underestimating the intelligence capital spent by Israel in all of this and why they keep grinding forward on the information they have.

They can blow up half of Hez with pagers and walkie talkies, but they didnt know shit about October 7?

Seems unlikely that on one hand we are flabbergasted at their intelligence but yet they were caught with their pants down?

[Rex Kramer 1338]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And flashing the deuce that is a barrage of conventional missiles that will inflict little real damage in comparison to what Israel has done to Hezbollah (and thus Iran) in the past two weeks ain't much of a card to play.  Iran cannot do anything that will have much effect.  They can launch a fireworks show.  Cool.  Actual strategic and tactical impact on Israel will almost certainly be de minimis.

I think you’re probably right. But again, you’re a flippant blowhard fuckhead. 

[Laxtonto 12080]

6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 

 

Could Ukraine use that stuff? Israel should ship it to them.

 

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They have to save face, and at the same time not give anybody a reason to go after their drone and missile factories (which Russia needs).

Netanyahu's speech for the Iranian people was interesting.

Curious if all of this stuff they are taking from Lebanon isn't going to end up in the hands of the MEK back inside of Iran... I would laugh if Israel helped support a people's revolution in Iran with the weapons Iran smuggled to Lebanon to attack Israel.. .

[Brisketexan 105142]

2 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I think you’re probably right. But again, you’re a flippant blowhard fuckhead. 

I agree with you on both points.  I mean, I'm not making battlefield calls for the IDF, I'm just a keyboard warrior....just like you.

But both points also likely match up with the pre-game assessments by both Israeli and US intelligence.  They have a pretty good idea what Iran's "force projection" capabilities are, AND Iran's likely response using those capabilities.  And they aren't being flippant blowhards: they're gaming a situation and making and predicting moves based on available data and their opponent's desires and abilities.

Edited October 1 by Brisketexan

[Rex Kramer 1338]

3 minutes ago, huge said:

They can blow up half of Hez with pagers and walkie talkies, but they didnt know shit about October 7?

Seems unlikely that on one hand we are flabbergasted at their intelligence but yet they were caught with their pants down?

It makes sense. We had our pants down on 9/11 and got our shit together. And Israel might’ve been overlooking Gaza gathering intel up north for years (and in fact probably was). 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

3 minutes ago, huge said:

They can blow up half of Hez with pagers and walkie talkies, but they didnt know shit about October 7?

Complacency and arrogance are a helluva drug.

And since October 7, they kicked into really high-gear, blanketing (and precisely mapping) the areas Hamas controlled with drones.  Wish I could find the article, but it talked about all of the technology Israel employed, complete with infrared scanning at night to catch heat signatures of tunnel entrances, vehicles and people moving stuff around, etc. After October 7, Israel treated this like an existential thread, complete with plans to kill any and all Hamas that they could.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I agree with you on both points.  I mean, I'm not making battlefield calls for the IDF, I'm just a keyboard warrior....just like you.

But both points also likely match up with the pre-game assessments by both Israeli and US intelligence.  They have a pretty good idea what Iran's "force projection" capabilities are, AND Iran's likely response using those capabilities.  And they aren't being flippant blowhards: they're gaming a situation and making and predicting moves based on available data and their opponent's desires and abilities.

You missed a few key descriptors in your description of me. I’m a Palestinian Genocider Keyboard Warrior. 

[Foosters 17856]

6 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

If only it were that easy, the culture warriors will just slither back to get their serotonin hits. Straight trash.

 

 

 

Dude's butthole sweats for terrorists.

 

Would you like the mods to create a safe space for you? 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But both points also likely match up with the pre-game assessments by both Israeli and US intelligence.  They have a pretty good idea what Iran's "force projection" capabilities are, AND Iran's likely response using those capabilities.  And they aren't being flippant blowhards: they're gaming a situation and making and predicting moves based on available data and their opponent's desires and abilities.

All of the shipments to Russia have probably been spotted and analyzed, so I would assume the US has a pretty good idea on what the factories are capable of turning out, what current stockpiles they have, etc.

It speaks volumes that Ukraine has been hitting ammo dumps that just so happened to have large ammo shipments show up (from Russian factories and Iran/North Korea).

[Brisketexan 105142]

Just now, Rex Kramer said:

You missed a few key descriptors in your description of me. I’m a Palestinian Genocider Keyboard Warrior. 

I'll be sure to get it right next time.  But the full title is "keyboard warrior who says he's definitely not for Palestinian genocide and/or ethnic cleansing, he just supports every action in furtherance of Palestinian genocide and/or ethnic cleansing" - probably need an acronym for that though, it's pretty long.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

I'll be sure to get it right next time.  But the full title is "keyboard warrior who says he's definitely not for Palestinian genocide and/or ethnic cleansing, he just supports every action in furtherance of Palestinian genocide and/or ethnic cleansing" - probably need an acronym for that though, it's pretty long.

I do?  Man sure would be nice if you had some support for this. I’m sure being the flippant obnoxious guy you are, you do. 

[huge 3793]

1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

It makes sense. We had our pants down on 9/11 and got our shit together. And Israel might’ve been overlooking Gaza gathering intel up north for years (and in fact probably was). 

 I don't know shit about fuck but it doesn't any sense to me.  I

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Complacency and arrogance are a helluva drug.

And since October 7, they kicked into really high-gear, blanketing (and precisely mapping) the areas Hamas controlled with drones.  Wish I could find the article, but it talked about all of the technology Israel employed, complete with infrared scanning at night to catch heat signatures of tunnel entrances, vehicles and people moving stuff around, etc. After October 7, Israel treated this like an existential thread, complete with plans to kill any and all Hamas that they could.

I don't think Israel believes in complacency but again, I don't know shit.  I just see them killing people with pagers.  Maybe this is FAFO, but it seems like something else to me.

[Bevo 13577]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'll be sure to get it right next time.  But the full title is "keyboard warrior who says he's definitely not for Palestinian genocide and/or ethnic cleansing, he just supports every action in furtherance of Palestinian genocide and/or ethnic cleansing" - probably need an acronym for that though, it's pretty long.

Pffft

 

 

[Rex Kramer 1338]

5 minutes ago, huge said:

 I don't know shit about fuck but it doesn't any sense to me.  I

I don't think Israel believes in complacency but again, I don't know shit.  I just see them killing people with pagers.  Maybe this is FAFO, but it seems like something else to me.

What doesn’t make sense to you?

Hamas was isolated and I would expect a harder, tougher area for Mossad to infiltrate. It was still a massive fuckup no matter how you slice it. But I’m not sure how you can’t recognize the genius with the pagers, walkie-talkies, subsequent airstrikes and then Houthi strikes. 

[Bevo 13577]

Just now, Rex Kramer said:

What doesn’t make sense to you?

Hamas was isolated and I would expect a harder, tougher area for Mossad to infiltrate. It was still a massive fuckup no matter how you slice it. But I’m not sure how you can’t recognize the genius with the pagers, walkie-talkies, subsequent airstrikes and then Houthi strikes. 

 

 

What he is hinting at but won't say is that there was a conspiracy by the Israeli government to let Hamas attack Israel in an attack much worse relatively than the WTC in order for Israel to go to war against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

[huge 3793]

27 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

What doesn’t make sense to you?

Hamas was isolated and I would expect a harder, tougher area for Mossad to infiltrate. It was still a massive fuckup no matter how you slice it. But I’m not sure how you can’t recognize the genius with the pagers, walkie-talkies, subsequent airstrikes and then Houthi strikes. 

That's the point I am making.  I recognize the genius!  This genius stands in stark contrast to what happened previous.  Like worlds apart.  BN was on the hot seat is all I can figure.  AND I AM GENERALLY TEAM BLUE!!!

[gsoda3 3262]

There've been reports of an explosion in tel aviv and then a major shooting attack in jaffa with many casualties. Perhaps the response isn't an overwhelming missile strike, it's the diversion of a threatened missile strike while soft targets are hit. 

 

edit for source:  https://www.aljazeera.com/

Edited October 1 by gsoda3

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Isn't it kind of wild that in 2024 you can watch missle attacks on live TV?

[Brisketexan 105142]

26 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

There've been reports of an explosion in tel aviv and then a major shooting attack in jaffa with many casualties. Perhaps the response isn't an overwhelming missile strike, it's the diversion of a threatened missile strike while soft targets are hit. 

 

edit for source:  https://www.aljazeera.com/

 

2 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Isn't it kind of wild that in 2024 you can watch missle attacks on live TV?

Hell, I remember watching them in the first gulf war -- SCUD!

The air raid sirens were always what got me.  I remember having a discussion with friends during the gulf war that I nominate "the air raid siren" as the defining and unique "sound" of the 20th century.  Yet here we are in the 21st century, and that sound manages to stay on the charts.

That AJ story says the IDF reports 102 missiles launched -- a significantly smaller salvo than Iran launched last time.  Looks like a couple got through the air defenses.  And, interesting to see what the shooting reports in Tel Aviv and Jaffa are.  But if that's the level that the "retaliation" stays at, it's well within the bounds of what was expected.

[KYHorn 17061]

 

 

 

[Brisketexan 105142]

That first vid doesn't look to be missiles raining on Tel Aviv -- looks to be debris from intercepted missiles (I mean, I'm sure that isn't good if it lands on your roof or in your garden, but the explosive threat was neutralized).

[Evil Bill Obrien 3284]

 

 

 

 

Whelp this seems pretty bad

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Yeah it seems Iran leadership is very scared right now. They don't want a war with the US.

Seeing lots of anti-Israel stuff online across many platforms. A lot of people hate them more than ever.

[52-80 19159]

11 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Isn't it kind of wild that in 2024 you can watch missle attacks on live TV?

And the missile interceptors are fucking metal

[Brian Fantana 6689]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

@Brian Fantana So much I would like to get into in your post about democracy but no time this AM. Will try and remember this evening.

1- You keep thinking of the region as Arab. It is very different from area to area. North Africa could pull off Democracy. It was not the US who fucked up the Arab Spring. Look across the little Sea to the north. Lumping them together is like saying all Latinos are the same. Guatemala ain't mexico culturally. Sure as shit Argentina/Brazil/Peru/Chile have much in common with Mexico except for the spanish legacy (catholic church and history of caudillo rule.) it is fine for geographical association but does not work at all when talking politics, history, etc.

2- Afghanistan could have worked. Democracy is something Afghans understand and appreciate. Loya Jirga, their system of government is very democratic. The two major failures were the surge with conventional forces and pushing what WE, the US, thought was important. The brain trust in State and USAID did not try and understand the culture. When I would lecture on the country I would tell people to forget reading shit about the brits and read persian poetry and if in Engish, Michner's book Caravans (especially the chapter about bridges). Afghans were never in the South (Pashtunistan) going to have equal rights as fast as we wanted them to. USAID is still trying to push women's rights there. I mean TODAY. There is a project titled Women in Agriculture. Problem. Women traditionally do not, and never have, worked in Agriculture. Oh and the Taliban are now in power. @956 Worldwide knows what I mean.

3- You know who does not give a fuck about democracy in the region? Arab leaders. I am looking mainly at the GCC States. What is now propping them up? Chinese investments into sand dominos selling 99 year leases to fat brits and high caste Indians. We prop them up for a few reasons. We inherited the leadership and structure and we like oil/natural gas. Plus they look like land aircraft carriers. We like those.

This tread can get contentious, but for the next 11 days can we just agree OU SUCKS?

Yep yep, I wholeheartedly agree with all of this. Especially the bit about Afghanistan.

1 hour ago, huge said:

They can blow up half of Hez with pagers and walkie talkies, but they didnt know shit about October 7?

Seems unlikely that on one hand we are flabbergasted at their intelligence but yet they were caught with their pants down?

[Brian Fantana 6689]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That first vid doesn't look to be missiles raining on Tel Aviv -- looks to be debris from intercepted missiles (I mean, I'm sure that isn't good if it lands on your roof or in your garden, but the explosive threat was neutralized).

Yeah I wouldn't expect any of them to get through. Iran running scared though.

[Rip76 4928]

Prepare the anus Iran.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

Updates from NYT

 

Patrick Kingsley
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:55 p.m. ET3 minutes ago
Patrick KingsleyReporting from Jerusalem

The time it appeared to take for the first missiles to reach Israel — under 15 minutes — suggests these were ballistic missiles.

Patrick Kingsley
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:52 p.m. ET6 minutes ago
Patrick KingsleyReporting from Jerusalem

Here in Jerusalem, we hear a third round of sirens and overhead explosions, possibly indicating interceptions of missiles by Israel’s air defense system.

Israel launches invasion into Lebanon
It was not immediately clear where the Israeli military was operating in Lebanon, but Israel ordered residents of many southern towns to move north.

 

Source: Israeli military, United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon, OpenStreetMap By Leanne Abraham, Agnes Chang and Lauren Leatherby
Zolan Kanno-Youngs
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:51 p.m. ET6 minutes ago
Zolan Kanno-YoungsReporting on the White House

President Biden and Vice President Harris held a meeting this morning with national security officials “to discuss Iranian plans to imminently launch a significant ballistic missile attack against Israel,” according to the White House. They reviewed U.S. plans to help Israel defend against the attacks and protect Americans in the region.

Liam Stack
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:45 p.m. ET13 minutes ago
Liam Stack

Flashes of light from the arcing interceptors of Israel’s air defense system can be seen in the sky over Tel Aviv. I saw at least one — I do not know from what — shoot across the sky. It looks like it may have crashed into the sea.

Aaron Boxerman
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:43 p.m. ET15 minutes ago
Aaron BoxermanReporting from Jerusalem

Distant explosions are heard in the skies over Jerusalem. It was unclear where the booms are coming from.

Aaron Boxerman
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:33 p.m. ET24 minutes ago
Aaron BoxermanReporting from Jerusalem

The Israeli military said in a statement that missiles were launched at Israel from Iran. Air raid sirens sound across much of Israel.

Edited October 1 by SimonBolivar

[Rex Kramer 1338]

38 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

There've been reports of an explosion in tel aviv and then a major shooting attack in jaffa with many casualties. Perhaps the response isn't an overwhelming missile strike, it's the diversion of a threatened missile strike while soft targets are hit. 

 

edit for source:  https://www.aljazeera.com/

Well that’s gonna work out well. 

[52-80 19159]

ABC has a live feed of the skies over israel, its wild

[Rex Kramer 1338]

9 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Yeah it seems Iran leadership is very scared right now. They don't want a war with the US.

Seeing lots of anti-Israel stuff online across many platforms. A lot of people hate them more than ever.

They’re either not that scared, or they’re fucking retarded. 

[Brian Fantana 6689]

 

[tx 3 putt 76958]

those missiles are being fired from Iran into Isreal ?

 

take out all their nuke facilites, launch sites, every military facility, every command center. asap 

the Us should help with some cruise missiles. take their ports, everything 

Edited October 1 by tx 3 putt

[KYHorn 17061]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

those missiles are being fired from Iran into Isreal ?

Yeah, it'sreal.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

those missiles are being fired from Iran into Isreal ?

 

take out all their nuke facilites, launch sites, every military facility, every command center. asap 

the Us should help with some cruise missiles. take their ports, everything 

 

[Rex Kramer 1338]

Just now, KYHorn said:

Yeah, it'sreal.

 

[Brian Fantana 6689]

18 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

And the missile interceptors are fucking metal

A lot of people like to compare it to hitting a bullet with a bullet, but it's a lot more impressive than that. Ballistic missiles travel faster than that. I've done some RF work on telemetry systems used by our THAAD and Patriot defense systems. It's an open secret that there is a strategic gap between the two systems that we've unsuccessfully been trying to close for a long time.

I had a couple buddies stationed at Al Udeid and everyone knew that if Iran decided to actually throw down and launch on the base that they were pretty much fucked.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

Still early of course
 

Quote

Oct. 1, 2024, 1:20 p.m. ET6 minutes ago

Aaron Boxerman

Reporting from Jerusalem

Two people were lightly wounded by shrapnel in Tel Aviv from the Iranian missile barrage, said Magen David Adom, Israel’s emergency service. There were no other immediate reports of deaths or serious casualties.

 

[Bevo 13577]

29 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

They’re either not that scared, or they’re fucking retarded. 

[bolverk 29673]

Iran just fucked up, and this is heading toward a full-scale war. Their half-hearted, incredibly telegraphed response to the Israeli attack on the embassy was within the bounds of "the game," I guess, since that was technically an attack on Iranian soil. Israel's very restrained response (1 missile?) was also considered part of that same game.

This is different. Iran has directly inserted itself into the Hezbollah-Israeli conflict--an incredibly dumb bet that Israel won't punch back with full force this time. They will, and we'll all get a front-row seat to this fucking mess.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

59 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

And the missile interceptors are fucking metal

[Earl Haffler 591]

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

2 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

Nah. Captainant mocks this strategy. That dumb motherfucker just joined Fantana and Ana on my ignore list for non-entertaining, insane posting that just wastes my time. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

3 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

And how exactly does Israel, a nation of fewer than 10 million that is already fighting in two locations, take out a nation of 90 million people that is 2 countries away? Obviously, Isael could do some serious damage to the military of Iran and set them back, but they aren't taking them out.