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Posted

That first vid doesn't look to be missiles raining on Tel Aviv -- looks to be debris from intercepted missiles (I mean, I'm sure that isn't good if it lands on your roof or in your garden, but the explosive threat was neutralized).

Posted
11 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Isn't it kind of wild that in 2024 you can watch missle attacks on live TV?

And the missile interceptors are fucking metal

Posted
4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

@Brian Fantana So much I would like to get into in your post about democracy but no time this AM. Will try and remember this evening.

1- You keep thinking of the region as Arab. It is very different from area to area. North Africa could pull off Democracy. It was not the US who fucked up the Arab Spring. Look across the little Sea to the north. Lumping them together is like saying all Latinos are the same. Guatemala ain't mexico culturally. Sure as shit Argentina/Brazil/Peru/Chile have much in common with Mexico except for the spanish legacy (catholic church and history of caudillo rule.) it is fine for geographical association but does not work at all when talking politics, history, etc.

2- Afghanistan could have worked. Democracy is something Afghans understand and appreciate. Loya Jirga, their system of government is very democratic. The two major failures were the surge with conventional forces and pushing what WE, the US, thought was important. The brain trust in State and USAID did not try and understand the culture. When I would lecture on the country I would tell people to forget reading shit about the brits and read persian poetry and if in Engish, Michner's book Caravans (especially the chapter about bridges). Afghans were never in the South (Pashtunistan) going to have equal rights as fast as we wanted them to. USAID is still trying to push women's rights there. I mean TODAY. There is a project titled Women in Agriculture. Problem. Women traditionally do not, and never have, worked in Agriculture. Oh and the Taliban are now in power. @956 Worldwide knows what I mean.

3- You know who does not give a fuck about democracy in the region? Arab leaders. I am looking mainly at the GCC States. What is now propping them up? Chinese investments into sand dominos selling 99 year leases to fat brits and high caste Indians. We prop them up for a few reasons. We inherited the leadership and structure and we like oil/natural gas. Plus they look like land aircraft carriers. We like those.

This tread can get contentious, but for the next 11 days can we just agree OU SUCKS?

Yep yep, I wholeheartedly agree with all of this. Especially the bit about Afghanistan.

1 hour ago, huge said:

They can blow up half of Hez with pagers and walkie talkies, but they didnt know shit about October 7?

Seems unlikely that on one hand we are flabbergasted at their intelligence but yet they were caught with their pants down?

Jake Gyllenhaal Reaction GIF

Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That first vid doesn't look to be missiles raining on Tel Aviv -- looks to be debris from intercepted missiles (I mean, I'm sure that isn't good if it lands on your roof or in your garden, but the explosive threat was neutralized).

Yeah I wouldn't expect any of them to get through. Iran running scared though.

Posted (edited)

Updates from NYT

 

Patrick Kingsley
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:55 p.m. ET3 minutes ago
Patrick KingsleyReporting from Jerusalem

The time it appeared to take for the first missiles to reach Israel — under 15 minutes — suggests these were ballistic missiles.

Patrick Kingsley
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:52 p.m. ET6 minutes ago
Patrick KingsleyReporting from Jerusalem

Here in Jerusalem, we hear a third round of sirens and overhead explosions, possibly indicating interceptions of missiles by Israel’s air defense system.

Israel launches invasion into Lebanon
It was not immediately clear where the Israeli military was operating in Lebanon, but Israel ordered residents of many southern towns to move north.

 


Source: Israeli military, United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon, OpenStreetMap By Leanne Abraham, Agnes Chang and Lauren Leatherby
Zolan Kanno-Youngs
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:51 p.m. ET6 minutes ago
Zolan Kanno-YoungsReporting on the White House

President Biden and Vice President Harris held a meeting this morning with national security officials “to discuss Iranian plans to imminently launch a significant ballistic missile attack against Israel,” according to the White House. They reviewed U.S. plans to help Israel defend against the attacks and protect Americans in the region.

Liam Stack
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:45 p.m. ET13 minutes ago
Liam Stack

Flashes of light from the arcing interceptors of Israel’s air defense system can be seen in the sky over Tel Aviv. I saw at least one — I do not know from what — shoot across the sky. It looks like it may have crashed into the sea.

Aaron Boxerman
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:43 p.m. ET15 minutes ago
Aaron BoxermanReporting from Jerusalem

Distant explosions are heard in the skies over Jerusalem. It was unclear where the booms are coming from.

Aaron Boxerman
Oct. 1, 2024, 12:33 p.m. ET24 minutes ago
Aaron BoxermanReporting from Jerusalem

The Israeli military said in a statement that missiles were launched at Israel from Iran. Air raid sirens sound across much of Israel.

Edited by SimonBolivar
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Posted (edited)

those missiles are being fired from Iran into Isreal ?

 

take out all their nuke facilites, launch sites, every military facility, every command center. asap 

the Us should help with some cruise missiles. take their ports, everything 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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Posted
18 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

And the missile interceptors are fucking metal

A lot of people like to compare it to hitting a bullet with a bullet, but it's a lot more impressive than that. Ballistic missiles travel faster than that. I've done some RF work on telemetry systems used by our THAAD and Patriot defense systems. It's an open secret that there is a strategic gap between the two systems that we've unsuccessfully been trying to close for a long time.

I had a couple buddies stationed at Al Udeid and everyone knew that if Iran decided to actually throw down and launch on the base that they were pretty much fucked.

Posted

Still early of course
 

Quote
Aaron Boxerman
Oct. 1, 2024, 1:20 p.m. ET6 minutes ago

Aaron Boxerman

Reporting from Jerusalem

Two people were lightly wounded by shrapnel in Tel Aviv from the Iranian missile barrage, said Magen David Adom, Israel’s emergency service. There were no other immediate reports of deaths or serious casualties.

 

Posted

Iran just fucked up, and this is heading toward a full-scale war. Their half-hearted, incredibly telegraphed response to the Israeli attack on the embassy was within the bounds of "the game," I guess, since that was technically an attack on Iranian soil. Israel's very restrained response (1 missile?) was also considered part of that same game.

This is different. Iran has directly inserted itself into the Hezbollah-Israeli conflict--an incredibly dumb bet that Israel won't punch back with full force this time. They will, and we'll all get a front-row seat to this fucking mess.

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Posted

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

And how exactly does Israel, a nation of fewer than 10 million that is already fighting in two locations, take out a nation of 90 million people that is 2 countries away? Obviously, Isael could do some serious damage to the military of Iran and set them back, but they aren't taking them out.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

The USN CSG in the Red Sea is down it's oiler right now and is in a bit of a logistical pickle that's limiting the number of sorties that can muster. Plus, Iran has built it's bunkers into mountains. Every base is built like Cheyenne Mountain, and filled with missiles. 

Escalating into a nation state shooting war is the next step towards a global conflict over religion. And an excellent way to dump ever more American blood and gold into the middle east. 

 

And thank fuck that rex is finally ignoring me. Dude can't even read my fucking posts correctly lmfao

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

And thank fuck that rex is finally ignoring me. Dude can't even read my fucking posts correctly lmfao

I've never seen a poster with more personal grievances and so self assured that he's not the problem.

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Posted
32 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Iran just fucked up, and this is heading toward a full-scale war. Their half-hearted, incredibly telegraphed response to the Israeli attack on the embassy was within the bounds of "the game," I guess, since that was technically an attack on Iranian soil. Israel's very restrained response (1 missile?) was also considered part of that same game.

This is different. Iran has directly inserted itself into the Hezbollah-Israeli conflict--an incredibly dumb bet that Israel won't punch back with full force this time. They will, and we'll all get a front-row seat to this fucking mess.

 

22 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

But....why?  Why would Israel let itself be drawn offsides like that?  See below:

15 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

And how exactly does Israel, a nation of fewer than 10 million that is already fighting in two locations, take out a nation of 90 million people that is 2 countries away? Obviously, Isael could do some serious damage to the military of Iran and set them back, but they aren't taking them out.

This.  It wouldn't make sense to engage in a full-on frontal war with Iran.  ESPECIALLY when Israel has been having incredible success with its plan these past few months.

Israel has been making masterful chess moves v. Iran and Hezbollah.  Keep playing that game, don't be distracted AT ALL by theatrics and performative bullshit.  Iran just made noise.  Ignore it and keep on trucking, pursuing your plans using your intel and military power as you have been: selectively, and brutally effectively.

I strongly suspect that will be how Israel plays it.  Israel isn't looking to put on a show.  They aren't looking to "escalate."  They also aren't looking to "de-escalate."  They have goals they want to accomplish re Iran and Hezbollah.  They are accomplishing them, and they are likely to keep doing so for some time.

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Posted
26 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

You gonna send your son or nephew? Or else be quiet.

Israel doesn't have the troops.

Posted
11 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

You gonna send your son or nephew? Or else be quiet.

Israel doesn't have the troops.

First of all, no US military troops need be be engaged on the ground in Iran.  All Israel needs to do is decapitate the leadership and destroy the nuke plants and military targets.  Their military is likely as feckless is the Iraqi military during Desert Storm.  Those people want to be in the first world (as opposed to the crazy Arabs).  The will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

Posted
1 minute ago, Earl Haffler said:

The will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

Yeah....famous last words.

Many of the Iranian people are no friend of the regime.  But there's a lot of daylight between that dislike and "we'll side with foreign powers attacking our country."  We've heard the "we'll be greeted as liberators" speech before.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

But....why?  Why would Israel let itself be drawn offsides like that?  See below:

This.  It wouldn't make sense to engage in a full-on frontal war with Iran.  ESPECIALLY when Israel has been having incredible success with its plan these past few months.

Israel has been making masterful chess moves v. Iran and Hezbollah.  Keep playing that game, don't be distracted AT ALL by theatrics and performative bullshit.  Iran just made noise.  Ignore it and keep on trucking, pursuing your plans using your intel and military power as you have been: selectively, and brutally effectively.

I strongly suspect that will be how Israel plays it.  Israel isn't looking to put on a show.  They aren't looking to "escalate."  They also aren't looking to "de-escalate."  They have goals they want to accomplish re Iran and Hezbollah.  They are accomplishing them, and they are likely to keep doing so for some time.

I agree it wouldn't make sense over the long term to get drawn into a full-scale war with Iran, especially given they already have so many pots on the stove. But the war they'd immediately have with Iran would mostly be aerial in nature, and I'm betting the Israelis have the full advantage. And Iran's not going to march 1000 km across Mesopotamia with an intact army. So, from an Israeli perspective, they're pretty safe from a ground invasion. Knowing this, I think Israel hits them back pretty hard, but I'll admit I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

Don't get me wrong, though. I'm not cheerleading for this--it's the last thing I want because Israel's many foes will go back and double down on their old tried-and-true terrorism tactics that'll ultimately result in a lot more civilian Israeli deaths. Israel will then respond with even more brutal shit in the occupied territories, and we'll still be arguing about this from laptops in the nursing home.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

First of all, no US military troops need be be engaged on the ground in Iran.  All Israel needs to do is decapitate the leadership and destroy the nuke plants and military targets.  Their military is likely as feckless is the Iraqi military during Desert Storm.  Those people want to be in the first world (as opposed to the crazy Arabs).  The will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

image.gif.a348df8d5952fb55b8302c6d52ea7120.gif

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

This. 90 million people has nothing to do with it. The vast majority of those people would welcome regime change. 

You got about 10,000 mullahs and the IRGC to go through first. As has already been said, you're not necessarily getting a regime change out of an external enemy fighting the country. It's more likely to galvanize support due to that threat.

Edited by Schulz2.0
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Posted
1 hour ago, Earl Haffler said:

First of all, no US military troops need be be engaged on the ground in Iran.  All Israel needs to do is decapitate the leadership and destroy the nuke plants and military targets.  Their military is likely as feckless is the Iraqi military during Desert Storm.  Those people want to be in the first world (as opposed to the crazy Arabs).  The will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

Would've been nice to not have to worry about Iranian nuke plants....

Posted
5 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

 

 

I suspect to no real effect.  The F-35s based there were likely either 1) in the air performing intercept roles, or 2) in hardened bunkers.  Note the lack of secondary explosions.  Airbases are a lot of empty land and runway.  Cratered runways can be repaired in a day.  Note the Iron Dome strategy of letting missiles that are aimed at unpopulated/unimportant targets get through.  Multiple missiles went through and hit, I suspect that Israel let them pass through, opting to intercept missiles that were heading for more important targets.

Iran targeted the same base in its April strikes.  Didn't seem to hamper F-35 operations afterwards.

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Posted

I gotta be honest, those missiles arent coming in at some hypersonic speeds in the video.

the vid showing the airfield getting hit is clearly showing at least 19 on ground explosions, which implies those missiles hit their intended targets.

 

I only saw 1 intercept which happened at the 18 second mark.

 

why didnt the Iron Dome take out more of them?  were they out of counter-missiles?  or did israel realize those were all going to hit the airfield and figured, fuck it, no need to cause a redirected missile to blow up a neighborhood?

shit brisket basically said the same thing i was thinking

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I gotta be honest, those missiles arent coming in at some hypersonic speeds in the video.

the vid showing the airfield getting hit is clearly showing at least 19 on ground explosions, which implies those missiles hit their intended targets.

 

I only saw 1 intercept which happened at the 18 second mark.

 

why didnt the Iron Dome take out more of them?  were they out of counter-missiles?  or did israel realize those were all going to hit the airfield and figured, fuck it, no need to cause a redirected missile to blow up a neighborhood?

shit brisket basically said the same thing i was thinking

 

I mean, if the actual ground on site at an airbase is an intended target, I'm sure it did hit some of that.  They may have hit a few outbuildings and trucks or something, but no secondary explosions is showing that they didn't hit strategic targets.  

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Let Israel have as much fun as they want! Just no US tax dollars or troops.

Take a look at that FIT on your tax return and count mutiple percentages towards Israel, Ukraine and other inept relief efforts towards Palestine. We’re playing with house money baby!  I think we are far far away boots on the  ground but we definitely have “troops”’of some sort involved in this quagmire.

Posted
9 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Iran will lick their wounds and bounce back. I don't like this current path.

Let Israel have as much fun as they want! Just no US tax dollars or troops.

giphy.gif

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Iran will lick their wounds and bounce back.

Bounce back....with what?  What were Iran's primary mechanisms of hitting Israel before this?

1) Hezbollah, and various actors/factions that funneled into same (via Syria and Lebanon)

2) Salvos of missiles that have so far done minimal harm

And yes, Iran is fucking around in the Houthi shit, but that's much more aimed at fucking with Saudia Arabia than it is at Israel.

So...bounce back with what?  Hezbollah is fucked as a fighting force, likely for a long-ass time.  The missiles are - as mentioned - much more of a display than something that causes actual significant harm.  Without those, Iran doesn't have an effective way to project power at Israel.  Maybe some one-off terror attacks, that sort of thing.  But nothing approaching what it could do with a fully armed and manned Hezbollah.

Posted
11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Bounce back....with what?  What were Iran's primary mechanisms of hitting Israel before this?

1) Hezbollah, and various actors/factions that funneled into same (via Syria and Lebanon)

2) Salvos of missiles that have so far done minimal harm

And yes, Iran is fucking around in the Houthi shit, but that's much more aimed at fucking with Saudia Arabia than it is at Israel.

So...bounce back with what?  Hezbollah is fucked as a fighting force, likely for a long-ass time.  The missiles are - as mentioned - much more of a display than something that causes actual significant harm.  Without those, Iran doesn't have an effective way to project power at Israel.  Maybe some one-off terror attacks, that sort of thing.  But nothing approaching what it could do with a fully armed and manned Hezbollah.

I get it. Israel definitely won in 2024. Many Arab nations are waiting though. They hate Israel with a passion and waiting for the US to be distracted.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Many Arab nations are waiting though. They hate Israel with a passion and waiting for the US to be distracted.

That's overstated as well.  On the eve of Oct. 7th, Saudi Arabia and Israel were poised to take a pretty big step forward in Arab-Israeli relations (the fact that the Sunni world and Israel have a common enemy in theocratic Shia Iran helps...a lot).

This is not 1967.  Jordan is not going to attack Israel.  Egypt is not going to attack Israel.  Syria is in no shape to attack Israel.  Hezbollah in Lebanon is in no shape to attack Israel.  Saudi Arabia is not going to attack Israel.  Iraq is not going to attack Israel.  The smaller gulf states (like Qatar) both are not going to attack Israel and have no real means to do so.  I'm not saying that there won't still be acts of islamist terror, but as far as attacks by nation-states....it's not going to happen.

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Posted
2 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

And how exactly does Israel, a nation of fewer than 10 million that is already fighting in two locations, take out a nation of 90 million people that is 2 countries away? Obviously, Isael could do some serious damage to the military of Iran and set them back, but they aren't taking them out.

 

IDF has planned this out many years ago

a small majority maintains power in Iran 

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Posted (edited)

those mountain command centers - they have entry ways and exits. they have ventilation shafts. big items had to get in there somehow. 

if you can’t blow it up, you shut them in. i’ll guess idf has it all mapped out. idf / us missiles are very damn accurate. might have on the ground help too, pointing a laser at a tight target. 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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Posted
3 hours ago, bolverk said:

Iran just fucked up, and this is heading toward a full-scale war. Their half-hearted, incredibly telegraphed response to the Israeli attack on the embassy was within the bounds of "the game," I guess, since that was technically an attack on Iranian soil. Israel's very restrained response (1 missile?) was also considered part of that same game.

The fact that it appears the missiles did no significant damage makes me wonder just how telegraphed of a response it was. I'm not saying the Iranians told Israel "here's what we are firing and when", but yeah, that was half-hearted. Iran has some pretty serious shit (as evidenced in Ukraine).

3 hours ago, bolverk said:

This is different. Iran has directly inserted itself into the Hezbollah-Israeli conflict--an incredibly dumb bet that Israel won't punch back with full force this time. They will, and we'll all get a front-row seat to this fucking mess.

Iran kind of has to insert itself into that conflict though - if Hezbollah ceases to exist as a functional organization, then Iran has lost its proxy in Lebanon/Syria, and it leaves its forces in Syria to be pushed out of Syria/destroyed in some manner, and sees its footprint in the Middle East shrink drastically.

Iran had to respond somehow.  They certainly can't project many boots on the ground into Lebanon.

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I’d be interested to know Iran’s aims since ‘82. Hezbollah was borne out of Lebanese resistance to Israel’s invasion in ‘82, which of course was directly related to Arafat and PLO shenanigans. At some point shortly thereafter, Iran cozied up to Hezbollah, and later with Hamas and the Houthis. What did they hope to achieve with any of these initiatives?

I'm not entirely sure.

My hypothesis has long been that Iran is a heavy-handed autocratic state.  And a standard play for heavy-handed autocratic states, to keep the attention of their people on outward foes instead of their simmering dissatisfaction with the shitty regime at home, is to gin up a foreign enemy (see, e.g., the heavy-handed autocratic Argentine right-wing gov't ginning up a war with the UK over the Falklands in 82).  There's no good reason that the nation state of Iran should have such enmity with Israel.  So, the explanation has to be something like "distract the public."  I bet 956 and Inka have a more educated take on this.

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Posted
Just now, Parliament said:

So most of the missiles weren't intercepted and very little damage was done?  Did they just simply miss?

I think that most/many of the missiles targeting populated areas/targets that mattered were intercepted.  The Iron Dome strategy is to allocate resources to take out the missiles most likely to cause the most damage/loss of life, and leave the rest to hit their targets.

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