Israel-Hamas war thread

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

bbc unblocked for north america at the moment:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt#player

150 missiles

0 injuries

[Captainant 27669]

13 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

The USN CSG in the Red Sea is down it's oiler right now and is in a bit of a logistical pickle that's limiting the number of sorties that can muster. Plus, Iran has built it's bunkers into mountains. Every base is built like Cheyenne Mountain, and filled with missiles. 

Escalating into a nation state shooting war is the next step towards a global conflict over religion. And an excellent way to dump ever more American blood and gold into the middle east. 

 

And thank fuck that rex is finally ignoring me. Dude can't even read my fucking posts correctly lmfao

[Brian Fantana 6689]

4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

And thank fuck that rex is finally ignoring me. Dude can't even read my fucking posts correctly lmfao

I've never seen a poster with more personal grievances and so self assured that he's not the problem.

[Brisketexan 105142]

32 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Iran just fucked up, and this is heading toward a full-scale war. Their half-hearted, incredibly telegraphed response to the Israeli attack on the embassy was within the bounds of "the game," I guess, since that was technically an attack on Iranian soil. Israel's very restrained response (1 missile?) was also considered part of that same game.

This is different. Iran has directly inserted itself into the Hezbollah-Israeli conflict--an incredibly dumb bet that Israel won't punch back with full force this time. They will, and we'll all get a front-row seat to this fucking mess.

 

22 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

But....why?  Why would Israel let itself be drawn offsides like that?  See below:

15 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

And how exactly does Israel, a nation of fewer than 10 million that is already fighting in two locations, take out a nation of 90 million people that is 2 countries away? Obviously, Isael could do some serious damage to the military of Iran and set them back, but they aren't taking them out.

This.  It wouldn't make sense to engage in a full-on frontal war with Iran.  ESPECIALLY when Israel has been having incredible success with its plan these past few months.

Israel has been making masterful chess moves v. Iran and Hezbollah.  Keep playing that game, don't be distracted AT ALL by theatrics and performative bullshit.  Iran just made noise.  Ignore it and keep on trucking, pursuing your plans using your intel and military power as you have been: selectively, and brutally effectively.

I strongly suspect that will be how Israel plays it.  Israel isn't looking to put on a show.  They aren't looking to "escalate."  They also aren't looking to "de-escalate."  They have goals they want to accomplish re Iran and Hezbollah.  They are accomplishing them, and they are likely to keep doing so for some time.

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

26 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Well, now's the time to take out Iran once and all.  Israel has probable cause, Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened, Russia has its own problems, the US is in position, and China cannot really project into the region (yet).  Israel should take the shot.

You gonna send your son or nephew? Or else be quiet.

Israel doesn't have the troops.

[Earl Haffler 591]

11 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

You gonna send your son or nephew? Or else be quiet.

Israel doesn't have the troops.

First of all, no US military troops need be be engaged on the ground in Iran.  All Israel needs to do is decapitate the leadership and destroy the nuke plants and military targets.  Their military is likely as feckless is the Iraqi military during Desert Storm.  Those people want to be in the first world (as opposed to the crazy Arabs).  The will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

[Brisketexan 105142]

1 minute ago, Earl Haffler said:

The will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

Yeah....famous last words.

Many of the Iranian people are no friend of the regime.  But there's a lot of daylight between that dislike and "we'll side with foreign powers attacking our country."  We've heard the "we'll be greeted as liberators" speech before.

[bolverk 29672]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

But....why?  Why would Israel let itself be drawn offsides like that?  See below:

This.  It wouldn't make sense to engage in a full-on frontal war with Iran.  ESPECIALLY when Israel has been having incredible success with its plan these past few months.

Israel has been making masterful chess moves v. Iran and Hezbollah.  Keep playing that game, don't be distracted AT ALL by theatrics and performative bullshit.  Iran just made noise.  Ignore it and keep on trucking, pursuing your plans using your intel and military power as you have been: selectively, and brutally effectively.

I strongly suspect that will be how Israel plays it.  Israel isn't looking to put on a show.  They aren't looking to "escalate."  They also aren't looking to "de-escalate."  They have goals they want to accomplish re Iran and Hezbollah.  They are accomplishing them, and they are likely to keep doing so for some time.

I agree it wouldn't make sense over the long term to get drawn into a full-scale war with Iran, especially given they already have so many pots on the stove. But the war they'd immediately have with Iran would mostly be aerial in nature, and I'm betting the Israelis have the full advantage. And Iran's not going to march 1000 km across Mesopotamia with an intact army. So, from an Israeli perspective, they're pretty safe from a ground invasion. Knowing this, I think Israel hits them back pretty hard, but I'll admit I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

Don't get me wrong, though. I'm not cheerleading for this--it's the last thing I want because Israel's many foes will go back and double down on their old tried-and-true terrorism tactics that'll ultimately result in a lot more civilian Israeli deaths. Israel will then respond with even more brutal shit in the occupied territories, and we'll still be arguing about this from laptops in the nursing home.

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

cnn: idf: 180 missiles

[orange dream 1251]

6 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

First of all, no US military troops need be be engaged on the ground in Iran.  All Israel needs to do is decapitate the leadership and destroy the nuke plants and military targets.  Their military is likely as feckless is the Iraqi military during Desert Storm.  Those people want to be in the first world (as opposed to the crazy Arabs).  The will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

13 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

First of all, no US military troops need be be engaged on the ground in Iran.  All Israel needs to do is decapitate the leadership and destroy the nuke plants and military targets.  Their military is likely as feckless is the Iraqi military during Desert Storm.  Those people want to be in the first world (as opposed to the crazy Arabs).  The will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

This. 90 million people has nothing to do with it. The vast majority of those people would welcome regime change. 

[Hagbard Celine 10864]

sullivan briefing: 200+ missiles, situation fluid, significant escalation, there will be consequences, will agree with israel on what and how

[Schulz2.0 28951]

4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

This. 90 million people has nothing to do with it. The vast majority of those people would welcome regime change. 

You got about 10,000 mullahs and the IRGC to go through first. As has already been said, you're not necessarily getting a regime change out of an external enemy fighting the country. It's more likely to galvanize support due to that threat.

Edited October 1 by Schulz2.0

[Rex Kramer 1338]

2 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

You got about 10,000 mullahs and the IRGC to go through first. As has already been said, you're not necessarily getting a regime change out of an external enemy fighting the country. It's more likely to galvanize support due to that threat.

I’m not offering an overall opinion on what Israel should do, if anything. I’m merely saying, their population is inconsequential. Their military is weak, especially in the air. It wouldn’t be difficult to take them and in fact I think it’d be pretty easy. 

[Brian Fantana 6689]

35 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

They will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

Hmm where have I heard something like this before???

[NaTeWHO 852]

 

 

[Trey3216 15346]

1 hour ago, Earl Haffler said:

First of all, no US military troops need be be engaged on the ground in Iran.  All Israel needs to do is decapitate the leadership and destroy the nuke plants and military targets.  Their military is likely as feckless is the Iraqi military during Desert Storm.  Those people want to be in the first world (as opposed to the crazy Arabs).  The will rise up with US and Israeli intel support.

Would've been nice to not have to worry about Iranian nuke plants....

[Brisketexan 105142]

5 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

 

 

I suspect to no real effect.  The F-35s based there were likely either 1) in the air performing intercept roles, or 2) in hardened bunkers.  Note the lack of secondary explosions.  Airbases are a lot of empty land and runway.  Cratered runways can be repaired in a day.  Note the Iron Dome strategy of letting missiles that are aimed at unpopulated/unimportant targets get through.  Multiple missiles went through and hit, I suspect that Israel let them pass through, opting to intercept missiles that were heading for more important targets.

Iran targeted the same base in its April strikes.  Didn't seem to hamper F-35 operations afterwards.

[AUS-97HORN 11763]

I gotta be honest, those missiles arent coming in at some hypersonic speeds in the video.

the vid showing the airfield getting hit is clearly showing at least 19 on ground explosions, which implies those missiles hit their intended targets.

 

I only saw 1 intercept which happened at the 18 second mark.

 

why didnt the Iron Dome take out more of them?  were they out of counter-missiles?  or did israel realize those were all going to hit the airfield and figured, fuck it, no need to cause a redirected missile to blow up a neighborhood?

shit brisket basically said the same thing i was thinking

 

[Trey3216 15346]

1 minute ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I gotta be honest, those missiles arent coming in at some hypersonic speeds in the video.

the vid showing the airfield getting hit is clearly showing at least 19 on ground explosions, which implies those missiles hit their intended targets.

 

I only saw 1 intercept which happened at the 18 second mark.

 

why didnt the Iron Dome take out more of them?  were they out of counter-missiles?  or did israel realize those were all going to hit the airfield and figured, fuck it, no need to cause a redirected missile to blow up a neighborhood?

shit brisket basically said the same thing i was thinking

 

I mean, if the actual ground on site at an airbase is an intended target, I'm sure it did hit some of that.  They may have hit a few outbuildings and trucks or something, but no secondary explosions is showing that they didn't hit strategic targets.  

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Iran will lick their wounds and bounce back. I don't like this current path.

Let Israel have as much fun as they want! Just no US tax dollars or troops.

[Newdoc 3440]

6 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Let Israel have as much fun as they want! Just no US tax dollars or troops.

Take a look at that FIT on your tax return and count mutiple percentages towards Israel, Ukraine and other inept relief efforts towards Palestine. We’re playing with house money baby!  I think we are far far away boots on the  ground but we definitely have “troops”’of some sort involved in this quagmire.

[Trey3216 15346]

9 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Iran will lick their wounds and bounce back. I don't like this current path.

Let Israel have as much fun as they want! Just no US tax dollars or troops.

[KYHorn 17060]

I found this to be helpful

 

 

 

 

[Brisketexan 105142]

10 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Iran will lick their wounds and bounce back.

Bounce back....with what?  What were Iran's primary mechanisms of hitting Israel before this?

1) Hezbollah, and various actors/factions that funneled into same (via Syria and Lebanon)

2) Salvos of missiles that have so far done minimal harm

And yes, Iran is fucking around in the Houthi shit, but that's much more aimed at fucking with Saudia Arabia than it is at Israel.

So...bounce back with what?  Hezbollah is fucked as a fighting force, likely for a long-ass time.  The missiles are - as mentioned - much more of a display than something that causes actual significant harm.  Without those, Iran doesn't have an effective way to project power at Israel.  Maybe some one-off terror attacks, that sort of thing.  But nothing approaching what it could do with a fully armed and manned Hezbollah.

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Bounce back....with what?  What were Iran's primary mechanisms of hitting Israel before this?

1) Hezbollah, and various actors/factions that funneled into same (via Syria and Lebanon)

2) Salvos of missiles that have so far done minimal harm

And yes, Iran is fucking around in the Houthi shit, but that's much more aimed at fucking with Saudia Arabia than it is at Israel.

So...bounce back with what?  Hezbollah is fucked as a fighting force, likely for a long-ass time.  The missiles are - as mentioned - much more of a display than something that causes actual significant harm.  Without those, Iran doesn't have an effective way to project power at Israel.  Maybe some one-off terror attacks, that sort of thing.  But nothing approaching what it could do with a fully armed and manned Hezbollah.

I get it. Israel definitely won in 2024. Many Arab nations are waiting though. They hate Israel with a passion and waiting for the US to be distracted.

[Brisketexan 105142]

13 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Many Arab nations are waiting though. They hate Israel with a passion and waiting for the US to be distracted.

That's overstated as well.  On the eve of Oct. 7th, Saudi Arabia and Israel were poised to take a pretty big step forward in Arab-Israeli relations (the fact that the Sunni world and Israel have a common enemy in theocratic Shia Iran helps...a lot).

This is not 1967.  Jordan is not going to attack Israel.  Egypt is not going to attack Israel.  Syria is in no shape to attack Israel.  Hezbollah in Lebanon is in no shape to attack Israel.  Saudi Arabia is not going to attack Israel.  Iraq is not going to attack Israel.  The smaller gulf states (like Qatar) both are not going to attack Israel and have no real means to do so.  I'm not saying that there won't still be acts of islamist terror, but as far as attacks by nation-states....it's not going to happen.

[tx 3 putt 76958]

2 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

And how exactly does Israel, a nation of fewer than 10 million that is already fighting in two locations, take out a nation of 90 million people that is 2 countries away? Obviously, Isael could do some serious damage to the military of Iran and set them back, but they aren't taking them out.

 

IDF has planned this out many years ago

a small majority maintains power in Iran 

[Rex Kramer 1338]

I’d be interested to know Iran’s aims since ‘82. Hezbollah was borne out of Lebanese resistance to Israel’s invasion in ‘82, which of course was directly related to Arafat and PLO shenanigans. At some point shortly thereafter, Iran cozied up to Hezbollah, and later with Hamas and the Houthis. What did they hope to achieve with any of these initiatives?

[tx 3 putt 76958]

those mountain command centers - they have entry ways and exits. they have ventilation shafts. big items had to get in there somehow. 

if you can’t blow it up, you shut them in. i’ll guess idf has it all mapped out. idf / us missiles are very damn accurate. might have on the ground help too, pointing a laser at a tight target. 

Edited October 1 by tx 3 putt

[atomheartbevo 89670]

3 hours ago, bolverk said:

Iran just fucked up, and this is heading toward a full-scale war. Their half-hearted, incredibly telegraphed response to the Israeli attack on the embassy was within the bounds of "the game," I guess, since that was technically an attack on Iranian soil. Israel's very restrained response (1 missile?) was also considered part of that same game.

The fact that it appears the missiles did no significant damage makes me wonder just how telegraphed of a response it was. I'm not saying the Iranians told Israel "here's what we are firing and when", but yeah, that was half-hearted. Iran has some pretty serious shit (as evidenced in Ukraine).

3 hours ago, bolverk said:

This is different. Iran has directly inserted itself into the Hezbollah-Israeli conflict--an incredibly dumb bet that Israel won't punch back with full force this time. They will, and we'll all get a front-row seat to this fucking mess.

Iran kind of has to insert itself into that conflict though - if Hezbollah ceases to exist as a functional organization, then Iran has lost its proxy in Lebanon/Syria, and it leaves its forces in Syria to be pushed out of Syria/destroyed in some manner, and sees its footprint in the Middle East shrink drastically.

Iran had to respond somehow.  They certainly can't project many boots on the ground into Lebanon.

 

[Parliament 14260]

So most of the missiles weren't intercepted and very little damage was done?  Did they just simply miss?

[Brisketexan 105142]

3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I’d be interested to know Iran’s aims since ‘82. Hezbollah was borne out of Lebanese resistance to Israel’s invasion in ‘82, which of course was directly related to Arafat and PLO shenanigans. At some point shortly thereafter, Iran cozied up to Hezbollah, and later with Hamas and the Houthis. What did they hope to achieve with any of these initiatives?

I'm not entirely sure.

My hypothesis has long been that Iran is a heavy-handed autocratic state.  And a standard play for heavy-handed autocratic states, to keep the attention of their people on outward foes instead of their simmering dissatisfaction with the shitty regime at home, is to gin up a foreign enemy (see, e.g., the heavy-handed autocratic Argentine right-wing gov't ginning up a war with the UK over the Falklands in 82).  There's no good reason that the nation state of Iran should have such enmity with Israel.  So, the explanation has to be something like "distract the public."  I bet 956 and Inka have a more educated take on this.

[Brisketexan 105142]

Just now, Parliament said:

So most of the missiles weren't intercepted and very little damage was done?  Did they just simply miss?

I think that most/many of the missiles targeting populated areas/targets that mattered were intercepted.  The Iron Dome strategy is to allocate resources to take out the missiles most likely to cause the most damage/loss of life, and leave the rest to hit their targets.

[atomheartbevo 89670]

3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I’d be interested to know Iran’s aims since ‘82. Hezbollah was borne out of Lebanese resistance to Israel’s invasion in ‘82, which of course was directly related to Arafat and PLO shenanigans. At some point shortly thereafter, Iran cozied up to Hezbollah, and later with Hamas and the Houthis. What did they hope to achieve with any of these initiatives?

Don't overthink it.  Those groups cause unrest that ties down Israeli's military (and the Houthis help fuck around with Saudi Arabia), and it extends Iran's footprint all the way to the Mediterranean and is a buffer between Israel and Syria.

Even if those groups that Iran helps support are Sunni, they are still keeping the Shiites in the conversation of which Muslim sect works against the Jews more, but a lot of this is also about protecting Syria, because if something happened in Syria, Iran starts to get really isolated.

2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

sullivan briefing: 200+ missiles, situation fluid, significant escalation, there will be consequences, will agree with israel on what and how

How about hitting some drone and missile factories that happen to help supply Russia?

[Evil Bill Obrien 3284]

SIAP but holy crap check below if you want to see the unluckiest person in the world walking down the street in the West Bank get unalived by a falling Iranian rocket fuselage, like Wile E Coyote and a falling anvil...

Allegedly the only casulty of the attack so far...wow

NSFW
 

Spoiler

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1841222141938974822

 

War is hell

Edited October 1 by Evil Bill Obrien

[Rex Kramer 1338]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm not entirely sure.

My hypothesis has long been that Iran is a heavy-handed autocratic state.  And a standard play for heavy-handed autocratic states, to keep the attention of their people on outward foes instead of their simmering dissatisfaction with the shitty regime at home, is to gin up a foreign enemy (see, e.g., the heavy-handed autocratic Argentine right-wing gov't ginning up a war with the UK over the Falklands in 82).  There's no good reason that the nation state of Iran should have such enmity with Israel.  So, the explanation has to be something like "distract the public."  I bet 956 and Inka have a more educated take on this.

They’ve spent 45 years trying to distract their populace, which is fairly educated and relatively cosmopolitan. And they’ve failed with the bulk of them. I don’t get it. And it’s very concerning because Israel isn’t in the mood to be fucked with at all. 

[Trey3216 15346]

21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm not entirely sure.

My hypothesis has long been that Iran is a heavy-handed autocratic state.  And a standard play for heavy-handed autocratic states, to keep the attention of their people on outward foes instead of their simmering dissatisfaction with the shitty regime at home, is to gin up a foreign enemy (see, e.g., the heavy-handed autocratic Argentine right-wing gov't ginning up a war with the UK over the Falklands in 82).  There's no good reason that the nation state of Iran should have such enmity with Israel.  So, the explanation has to be something like "distract the public."  I bet 956 and Inka have a more educated take on this.

Much of Iran's backing of Hezbollah was because they were a poor, disgruntled, almost entirely Shia faction in Lebanon that was pretty pissed off that the Sunni and Christian majority were somewhat cozy neighbors and were the wealthiest in the land.  They (Hezbollah) wanted no part of that, and Iran was happy to weaponize them.  

[butthurt 1525]

31 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

those mountain command centers - they have entry ways and exits. they have ventilation shafts. big items had to get in there somehow. 

if you can’t blow it up, you shut them in. i’ll guess idf has it all mapped out. idf / us missiles are very damn accurate. might have on the ground help too, pointing a laser at a tight target. 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

40 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

SIAP but holy crap check below if you want to see the unluckiest person in the world walking down the street in the West Bank get unalived by a falling Iranian rocket fuselage, like Wile E Coyote and a falling anvil... Allegedly the only casulty of the attack so far...wow

NSFW

  Hide contents

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1841222141938974822

War is hell

 

I should feel awful for posting that.

[Brian Fantana 6689]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

I should feel awful for posting that.

If I died like that, I'd hope my friends would meme about it.

[Armybrat 40846]

Can we assume that was a Palestinian that got squashed?

[tx 3 putt 76958]

6 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Can we assume that was a Palestinian that got squashed?

 

this looks like a cartoon. the other video wouldn’t load for me …

 

Edited October 1 by tx 3 putt

[atomheartbevo 89670]

 

[tx 3 putt 76958]

so iran has threatened to torch every refinery / oil field in the ME

[atomheartbevo 89670]

6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

so iran has threatened to torch every refinery / oil field in the ME

If that's what they are telling their people, they maybe a bit scared of their people.

[JBJ 3654]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If that's what they are telling their people, they maybe a bit scared of their people.

They will at some point in the next few weeks carry out a terrorist attack on their own people and blame Israel.

[tx 3 putt 76958]

seems like an easy target for the USN ….

 

[Deej 76793]

5 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

bbc unblocked for north america at the moment

@NowThis is glad to hear this

[Deej 76793]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

this looks like a cartoon. the other video wouldn’t load for me …

 

Picked a bad time to go for a late night falafel.