Israel-Hamas war thread

[Rex Kramer 1333]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think you know where my thoughts lie on the current IDF operations and how they are being carried out. But there is some truth to that meme. So please enlighten us. And also add to the explanation why no one is in the streets about the ongoing events in Sudan and Libya.

 

There’s a ton of truth in that meme. 

[InkaUtexas 25864]

3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

There’s a ton of truth in that meme. 

Yes, yes there is. That is the point I am making. Instead it is not liked so ridiculed. Fucking kindergarden.

I also want to add I do not remember any large talks or movements against rich Arab nations, some loved in Social Media. Yemen for instance. US Bombs, Saudi and uae pilots/SF personnel. Lots of Yemenis dead. When was the last rally anyone on here attended? Meanwhile, Dubai keeps growing as a tourist destination. Any divestment talks about US companies working there?  As for Sudan, there were some, when it was only the Government fighting rebels in Darfur or seperatists in the South. Now? Nope. And who the fuck cares right @Brian Fantana, nothing to divest from there to start with. (There is a lot, but we don't hear about it.)

Edited October 27 by InkaUtexas

[Brian Fantana 6680]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes, yes there is. That is the point I am making. Instead it is not liked so ridiculed. Fucking kindergarden.

I also want to add I do not remember any large talks or movements against rich Arab nations, some loved in Social Media. Yemen for instance. US Bombs, Saudi and uae pilots/SF personnel. Lots of Yemenis dead. When was the last rally anyone on here attended? Meanwhile, Dubai keeps growing as a tourist destination. Any divestment talks about US companies working there?  As for Sudan, there were some, when it was only the Government fighting rebels in Darfur or seperatists in the South. Now? Nope. And who the fuck cares right @Brian Fantana, nothing to divest from there to start with. (There is a lot, but we don't hear about it.)

We don't disagree at all. None of that is the topic of this thread. I don't know what you expect of me. Yeah, we (the US gov't and US corps) prop up and support some of the worst people in the world and nobody ever talks about it, especially in Western media, which is kind of my whole beef.

The knock is not that there is no truth to the meme, the knock is the guy who would sooner spit on any Muslim than talk to one is posting that meme purely to deflect from the Israeli government's actions, not because he gives a flying fuck about how many people MBS slaughters with our blessing.

[InkaUtexas 25864]

4 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

We don't disagree at all. None of that is the topic of this thread. I don't know what you expect of me. Yeah, we (the US gov't and US corps) prop up and support some of the worst people in the world and nobody ever talks about it, especially in Western media, which is kind of my whole beef.

The knock is not that there is no truth to the meme, the knock is the guy who would sooner spit on any Muslim than talk to one is posting that meme purely to deflect from the Israeli government's actions, not because he gives a flying fuck about how many people MBS slaughters with our blessing.

OK, that is not how you came across.

And when you say OUR BLESSING thank you. This is not a Rep or Dem issue. This is muslims slaughter muslims all the time and no one says shit, including their media.

Edited October 27 by InkaUtexas

[Brian Fantana 6680]

[parkavenueguy 13]

Coming as someone with a bit of background in this - I don't think most people will ever understand the relationship Iran and Israel has, and it's above a lot of people's cognitive ability and pay grade. The public conjecture between Israel and Iran is usually just to feed the masses. What goes on in private is indicative of why these back and forth strikes have been so precise and calculated between the two, rather than say, the bombings in Lebanon that effectively flattened a portion of Beirut. An Israeli-Iran war is very unlikely. 

 

 

[InkaUtexas 25864]

Came here for Quinn's stats, decided to get political and tell the board they don't know shit. Cool. Cuz yeah, none of UT grads have experience in the Middle East, geopolitics, or world events. Heck, amazing we can spell Levant.

[ABSR 5308]

2 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

We don't disagree at all. None of that is the topic of this thread. I don't know what you expect of me. Yeah, we (the US gov't and US corps) prop up and support some of the worst people in the world and nobody ever talks about it, especially in Western media, which is kind of my whole beef.

The knock is not that there is no truth to the meme, the knock is the guy who would sooner spit on any Muslim than talk to one is posting that meme purely to deflect from the Israeli government's actions, not because he gives a flying fuck about how many people MBS slaughters with our blessing.

But the “meme” clearly showed a Muslim woman who did not care with the implication that the Muslim world did not care.    Not Westerners or Americans.  And the Meme is spot on.  

[956 Worldwide 34702]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Came here for Quinn's stats, decided to get political and tell the board they don't know shit. Cool. Cuz yeah, none of UT grads have experience in the Middle East, geopolitics, or world events. Heck, amazing we can spell Levant.

Lol at people here lacking “cognitive ability.”

 

[InkaUtexas 25864]

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Lol at people here lacking “cognitive ability.”

 

And pay grade. Wonder if he will show us his paystub.

[General Specific 3253]

Drive a Corvette? You have to tell us if you drive a Corvette!

[parkavenueguy 13]

I was just referring to people in general, didn’t mean for it to be taken personally. 
 

I said that too because most people don’t care about the Middle East. And why would they? I don’t blame them, they have no personal connection to the region, so I won’t bore anyone with random minutiae. No one here will ever read Islamic Republic by Ayatollah Khomenei, no one will look into the details of Israel selling Iran weapons during the Iran-Iraq war, or the long and important history of the Jewish people in Iran. Hell, even the 8th President of Israel was an Iranian lol…

Jalal Al-e-Ahmad once said that Iran and Israel aren’t opposing countries. They’re in concert. 

But anyway, apologies for causing any offense. Didn’t mean it that way.

Edited October 28 by parkavenueguy

[parkavenueguy 13]

Had more coffee - also yes, you can have a take or opinion even if you have 0 connection, who gives a shit. I'm just being a weenie.

[InkaUtexas 25864]

Damn, so we don't read either? None of us ever read Persian poetry to better understand tribal dynamics? Or saw the islands off the UAE built by Israeli companies.

Typical new yorker.

[Rex Kramer 1333]

I didn’t mean to insult anyone. It’s not your fault you’re so fucking ignorant of all these facts that I’m gonna tell you about. 

[Bevo 13568]

29 minutes ago, parkavenueguy said:

I was just referring to people in general, didn’t mean for it to be taken personally. 
 

I said that too because most people don’t care about the Middle East. And why would they? I don’t blame them, they have no personal connection to the region, so I won’t bore anyone with random minutiae. No one here will ever read Islamic Republic by Ayatollah Khomenei, no one will look into the details of Israel selling Iran weapons during the Iran-Iraq war, or the long and important history of the Jewish people in Iran. Hell, even the 8th President of Israel was an Iranian lol…

Jalal Al-e-Ahmad once said that Iran and Israel aren’t opposing countries. They’re in concert. 

But anyway, apologies for causing any offense. Didn’t mean it that way.

 

A lot has changed since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi in Iran in 1979, especially the dynamic of Israel-Iran relationship. So your information seems a little outdated.

 

As an aside:

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826211

 

Iran's Khamenei seriously ill, son likely to be successor as supreme leader - NYT
Khamenei has served as Supreme Leader since 1989 since the death of Ruhollah Khomeini, the first to hold the title.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF
OCTOBER 27, 2024 00:47
Updated: OCTOBER 27, 2024 00:48

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, is reportedly seriously ill, with his second oldest son, Mojtaba Khamenei, likely to succeed him when he dies, a Saturday New York Times report disclosed.

The report noted that Khamenei's serious medical condition created a "quiet battle" over his succession. It also stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps would have a say in who would become the Ayatollah's successor.

Concern grew over Khamenei's successor after former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash last May.

Khamenei has served as Supreme Leader since 1989, when Ruhollah Khomeini, the first to hold the title, died.
Report comes after Israel's response to Iran's ballistic missile attack

The Times report came shortly after Israel responded to Iran's ballistic missile attack at the beginning of the month by striking numerous military sites early Saturday morning.

Iranian officials have said that they do not want escalation with Israel, the Times report added.

While attacking military targets in Iran, reports said that Israel had also attacked targets in Iraq and Syria.

[parkavenueguy 13]

I haven't met anyone who has ever cared about the region, and people in my immediate purview generally would rather just nuke the entire region and be done with it than take the time to read something they could care less about. If you have spent delicate time with the region, then I do appreciate it a lot. Just not something I was ever used to growing up. Sorry if I came off as a prick

Interesting point above. Idk if he's sick but there is a big thing of succession going on under him, curious how that all plays out. Also Iran under the Shah was very close to Israel, but even the Shah had some choice thoughts and ideas lol. I'll leave it at that. I'm gonna get eaten alive in this thread

Edited October 28 by parkavenueguy

[InkaUtexas 25864]

21 minutes ago, parkavenueguy said:

I haven't met anyone who has ever cared about the region, and people in my immediate purview generally would rather just nuke the entire region and be done with it than take the time to read something they could care less about. If you have spent delicate time with the region, then I do appreciate it a lot. Just not something I was ever used to growing up. Sorry if I came off as a prick

Interesting point above. Idk if he's sick but there is a big thing of succession going on under him, curious how that all plays out. Also Iran under the Shah was very close to Israel, but even the Shah had some choice thoughts and ideas lol. I'll leave it at that. I'm gonna get eaten alive in this thread

Prick? well welcome to the group. Curious how you found this. And what is delicate time? Is that how you have to behave with a virgin?

 

[Rex Kramer 1333]

37 minutes ago, parkavenueguy said:

I haven't met anyone who has ever cared about the region, and people in my immediate purview generally would rather just nuke the entire region and be done with it than take the time to read something they could care less about. If you have spent delicate time with the region, then I do appreciate it a lot. Just not something I was ever used to growing up. Sorry if I came off as a prick

Interesting point above. Idk if he's sick but there is a big thing of succession going on under him, curious how that all plays out. Also Iran under the Shah was very close to Israel, but even the Shah had some choice thoughts and ideas lol. I'll leave it at that. I'm gonna get eaten alive in this thread

If you’ve never met anyone that has cared about the region, I suggest you meet some more people. 

[parkavenueguy 13]

22 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Prick? well welcome to the group. Curious how you found this. And what is delicate time? Is that how you have to behave with a virgin?

 

It's how I was conceived.

6 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

If you’ve never met anyone that has cared about the region, I suggest you meet some more people. 

This is a good point

[InkaUtexas 25864]

6 minutes ago, parkavenueguy said:

It's how I was conceived.

This is a good point

So you are Jesus? he had some friends who knew about the middle east. 11 real good ones. One kind of screwed him over. You know, like that friend who never chips in for beer.

[HellesBier 188]

What the hell is going on 

[gsoda3 3246]

7 minutes ago, HellesBier said:

What the hell is helles going on 

so that you're consistent

[HellesBier 188]

5 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

so that you're consistent

Pos rep and that was hilarious. Thank you for the laugh.

[InkaUtexas 25864]

I know we are focused on next week, but shit continues to go on. 93 KIA in Gaza. Also, Israel is blocking UN groups from operating in the country.

CAIRO, Oct 29 (Reuters) - At least 93 Palestinians were killed or missing and dozens wounded in an Israeli strike on a residential building in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya on Tuesday, the Gaza health ministry said, and the U.S. called the incident "horrifying".

Medics said at least 20 children were among the dead.

"A number of victims are still under the rubble and on the roads, and ambulance and civil defence crews cannot reach them," the territory's health ministry said in a statement.

 

Later on Tuesday, Ismail Al-Thawabta, director of the Gaza government media office, put the number of fatalities at 93.

There was no immediate Israeli comment. The Israeli military has frequently questioned figures on death toll published by the Hamas-run media office, saying they were often exaggerated.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-55-palestinians-killed-an-israeli-strike-gazas-beit-lahiya-wafa-reports-2024-10-29/

 

 

[Fondren & Main 6702]

They’re currently being airstriked right now.  My customer sent me videos.  He thinks Hezbollah.

[InkaUtexas 25864]

14 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

They’re currently being airstriked right now.  My customer sent me videos.  He thinks Hezbollah.

Where? Who?

[Fondren & Main 6702]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Where? Who?

Israel was just attacked.  I will try to post the videos.

[Brian Fantana 6680]

All I'm seeing is the news is Israel air striking the Bekaa region.

[Fondren & Main 6702]

False alarm.  

 

 

 

 

So, it looks like it was a single drone.  I was on the phone with my customer when I heard an explosion and he said he would call me back.

[gernblansten 3196]

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

 

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

oh

 

 

[Laxtonto 12078]

46 minutes ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

oh

 

 

I think people are discounting how much the world fears Trump's unpredictable nature. Qatar knows it is easier to kick Hamas out now when Hamas has been severely weakened than to deal with the uncertainty of Trump in Jan. What is Hamas/Iran going to do about it now?  It also doesn't hurt that Trump is heavily anchored to the idea of cranking up oil and natural gas production and it is prudent to do whatever they can to not antagonize his production response. Right now, the US is most likely poised to go after Iran and Iranian oil exports. Even if the US becomes a major net energy exporter again, Qatar/OPEC can still absorb some of the void in global oil exports when the cheap Iranian oil gets stopped.

[Rex Kramer 1333]

6 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

I think people are discounting how much the world fears Trump's unpredictable nature. Qatar knows it is easier to kick Hamas out now when Hamas has been severely weakened than to deal with the uncertainty of Trump in Jan. What is Hamas/Iran going to do about it now?  It also doesn't hurt that Trump is heavily anchored to the idea of cranking up oil and natural gas production and it is prudent to do whatever they can to not antagonize his production response. Right now, the US is most likely poised to go after Iran and Iranian oil exports. Even if the US becomes a major net energy exporter again, Qatar/OPEC can still absorb some of the void in global oil exports when the cheap Iranian oil gets stopped.

I have several thoughts on your post but I’m first interested in why Iranian oil is cheap. I honestly do not know. I suspect it’s not because it’s a heavy grade, but rather because buyers of Iranian crude are doing so at a discount because they know Iran doesn’t have a great deal of options?  I suspect their biggest buyer is China. 

[Laxtonto 12078]

17 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I have several thoughts on your post but I’m first interested in why Iranian oil is cheap. I honestly do not know. I suspect it’s not because it’s a heavy grade, but rather because buyers of Iranian crude are doing so at a discount because they know Iran doesn’t have a great deal of options?  I suspect their biggest buyer is China. 

Super cheap because it is completely black market to avoid sanctions. Much like the Russian the Iranian crude is being sold mainly to China (like 80+%) and then India. The Iranian and Russian ghost tanker fleets are an entire wild story in itself.

If I remember correctly Iranian oil is high in sulfur content and medium to heavy crude.

This also somewhat highlights why it is was such a big deal that the current administration did all they could to curtail the Israeli retaliation strikes from targeting Kharg Island. Kharg Island Oil Terminal accounts for 80-90% of their oil distribution capability. By limiting the Israel response, China gets their cheap oil and as a trade stays neutral on supplying Russia with equipment in their fight with Ukraine.

[Parliament 14244]

My God the world is a mess.

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

 

Evidently, it is only with the Iranians, Russians, and the American Progressive Left, that the Hamas terrorists can find succor.

[Chopper 17230]

21 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

Evidently, it is only with the Iranians, Russians, and the American Progressive Left, that the Hamas terrorists can find succor.

Go succor yourself in the CR. 

Edited November 11 by Chopper

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

19 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Go fuck yourself in the CR. 

 

Fuck the CR

[Laxtonto 12078]

If you move Hamas HQ to West Africa, that is a death sentence. Full stop. Putting them in Port Sudan places them out of the sphere of influence of the Hanafi Sunnis and into the hands of the Maliki Sunnis. Not a direct rivalry, but also they will be less likely to put up a fuss is something happens on their turf. It also puts them in range of Israeli operations and air attacks would be primarily outbound over the Red Sea. You would in essence be asking Saudi Arabia to look the other way and not notice or claim they didn't pick up any aircraft heading to Port Sudan. Compare that to any flight plan to get to Qatar, and it is pretty obvious they are getting hung out to dry.

Placing the Hamas HQ in a city of 400k, on the Red Sea coast, in easy range of Israel, in a country with a less sophisticated military vs. Doha at 3M people, with a very high standard of living, with an extremely sophisticated military deterrence, and multiple hostile countries in between Qatar and Israel is a night and day difference.

This is Qatar and the most of the rest of the Middle East trying to wash their hands of Hamas by letting Israel now solve the problem for them. It puts Hamas much closer to what would be considered a US sphere of influence and closer to where the US and Israel have had traditional intelligence assets and that much farther away from Iran.

Edited November 11 by Laxtonto

[InkaUtexas 25864]

I have not seen Hamas is moving to Sudan, let alone Port Sudan. Where you seeing that?

No fucking way they go to Sudan at all. Israel and Sudan have increased working together. They leave Qatar and they end up in an old Ottoman compound. Fits well for both groups. Hamas needs access to media and the  IDF won't do shit against the Turks.

[Bevo 13568]

6 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I have not seen Hamas is moving to Sudan, let alone Port Sudan. Where you seeing that?

No fucking way they go to Sudan at all. Israel and Sudan have increased working together. They leave Qatar and they end up in an old Ottoman compound. Fits well for both groups. Hamas needs access to media and the  IDF won't do shit against the Turks.

 

You think they will go to a NATO country?

[InkaUtexas 25864]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

 

You think they will go to a NATO country?

They could. I have seen it in a few posts. There, Iran,or Sochi. It won't be a gulf state and really doubt Sudan.

Unlike Israel, Turkey has never listed Hamas as a terrorist organisation. In 2010, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described Hamas as "resistance fighters who are struggling to defend their land". Turkey hosts senior Hamas officials, including Saleh al-Arouri.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_support_for_Hamas

Turkey, the United States, and the Israel-Hamas War

https://www.cfr.org/article/turkey-united-states-and-israel-hamas-war

Edited November 11 by InkaUtexas

[Chopper 17230]

On 11/8/2024 at 1:13 PM, Laxtonto said:

I think people are discounting how much the world fears Trump's unpredictable nature. Qatar knows it is easier to kick Hamas out now when Hamas has been severely weakened than to deal with the uncertainty of Trump in Jan. What is Hamas/Iran going to do about it now?  It also doesn't hurt that Trump is heavily anchored to the idea of cranking up oil and natural gas production and it is prudent to do whatever they can to not antagonize his production response. Right now, the US is most likely poised to go after Iran and Iranian oil exports. Even if the US becomes a major net energy exporter again, Qatar/OPEC can still absorb some of the void in global oil exports when the cheap Iranian oil gets stopped.

If there's a war in the Persian Gulf due to Israel attacking Iran, how would that impact oil exports by OPEC? 

Edited November 11 by Chopper

[Laxtonto 12078]

2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

If there's a war in the Persian Gulf due to Israel attacking Iran, how would that impact oil exports by OPEC? 

The problem is that if there is a war between Iran and Israel by themselves, Iran is fucked and it’s over in a week or two. During that period Israel would decimate all Iranian oil production and OPEC could step in and up their oil production and fill the gap of the black market Iranian oil. China would not be pleased, but if Iran starts a ground war, I don’t expect too many countries will blame Israel for finally ending the issue.

Iran knows this and will continue with a measured response. The is is the same reason why they financed Hamas and Hezbollah in the first place. One on one is a losing proposition and a war of attrition is their best option.

The concern isn’t an Iran/Israel war, but a full on Arab conflict vs Israel. If that happens, the first thing Israel does is destroy all refining and pumping infrastructure and in essence go for the purse strings. The current ground and air forces of all the plausible Arab combatants would be hard pressed to even force Israel to cede ground, much less be able to defeat their entire military. Geography makes the defensive war easier, and the overwhelming air advantage makes this a Turkey shot. 
 

I really don’t see either scenario is a logical outcome, but people are never fully rational so…

[Bevo 13568]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

The concern isn’t an Iran/Israel war, but a full on Arab conflict vs Israel.

 

The Arab world would be more likely to support Israel which is to say that they would allow sorties but would say mean words about Israel.

[bolverk 29655]

Edit:
The “only way to remove” the “threat” of a Palestinian state, Smotrich added, “is to apply Israeli sovereignty over the entire settlements in Judea and Samaria,” the biblical term by which Israelis refer to the West Bank.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/11/middleeast/israeli-minister-annexation-occupied-west-bank-intl/index.html

 

Edited November 11 by bolverk

[Brian Fantana 6680]

It's ethnic cleansing o'clock!

[Laxtonto 12078]

20 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I have not seen Hamas is moving to Sudan, let alone Port Sudan. Where you seeing that?

No fucking way they go to Sudan at all. Israel and Sudan have increased working together. They leave Qatar and they end up in an old Ottoman compound. Fits well for both groups. Hamas needs access to media and the  IDF won't do shit against the Turks.

Quote

Exclusive: Hamas Leaders Rejected by 17 Arab Nations Seeking Refuge In a significant development, NewYork-i has learned from exclusive sources that Hamas leaders recently sought refuge in 17 Arab countries—only to face outright rejection. Among the nations that refused entry are Tunisia, Iraq, Syria, and Kuwait. The situation has escalated as Qatar, previously a stronghold for Hamas leadership, reportedly pressured the group to shut down their offices in Doha. Insiders close to Hamas suggest that the Sudanese ambassador in Qatar has floated an alternative: establishing a new base in northeast Port Sudan. This proposal comes amid tightening regional resistance against offering sanctuary to the group's leadership.