Israel-Hamas war thread

[immamac 42518]

3 minutes ago, Viper said:

A reporter on the ground in Israel

 

 

 

That's super clear reporting. 

Twitter is such bullshit now and this isn't at all helpful. 

[YGIFS 19449]

This will be an interesting panel by an organization of which I am proud to be a member.  Join today at 10:00a if you can for an informative panel discussion online:

https://act.ajc.org/site/MessageViewer?em_id=73144.0&dlv_id=52002

[Buzzrock 14871]

I’ve been stuck for hours in a parking deck just leaving a football game. I can’t imagine how long it takes to move 1M people even in the best of circumstances. 

[NoName 16295]

some morning tweets

long range missiles fired reportedly at IDF Northern Command building?

and shot down

this guy is probably the best at identifying misinformation and i think he's doing a tweet thread every AM on the prior day

Lloyd Austin

guessing we see a lot more sad things like this today

 

[Ghost of LL 15489]

34 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This thread is super important. 
 

 

But all evidence indicates that there is no coordination between Hamas and Iran/Hizbullah.

If Iran were coordinating all this, presumably it would have had Hizbullah conduct attacks from Lebanon at the same time Hamas was attacking from Gaza.  But there has been no meaningful attack from Lebanon.  The only thing Hizbullah has done is fire off some rockets that were already positioned and could be fired off with little/no preparation.  

Nor has there been any real move by Iran against . . . anybody.  Iran could ramp up its activities in the Gulf to draw the United States Navy away from the Eastern Mediterranean.  Or it could prompt action from the Houthis to strike at the Saudi oilfields.  Or it could do all manner of shit in Iraq.  It's done nothing.  It's issuing a bunch of mean tweets, and that's it.

That's not to say that things can develop.  This is a serious shooting war in a volatile region.  But it is to say that I don't see any basis to believe that there is some grand scheme or stratagem at play here.  It looks like Hamas just Leeroy Jenkinsed this shit.

[Buzzrock 14871]

20 minutes ago, NoName said:

some morning tweets

long range missiles fired reportedly at IDF Northern Command building?

and shot down

this guy is probably the best at identifying misinformation and i think he's doing a tweet thread every AM on the prior day

Lloyd Austin

guessing we see a lot more sad things like this today

 

That @Shayan86 interview was really good. Refreshingly even-keeled take. Thanks for posting. 

[atomheartbevo 89422]

27 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's not to say that things can develop.  This is a serious shooting war in a volatile region.  But it is to say that I don't see any basis to believe that there is some grand scheme or stratagem at play here.  It looks like Hamas just Leeroy Jenkinsed this shit.

Would be interesting if Iran decided to use them up for some reason, maybe to keep Israel and the Saudis from making nice.  Just wind them up and let them go.

I'm still wondering about whether there is a Russian angle.  They could really use a slow-down in support for Ukraine given that Putin can't mobilize much of anything until after his election in March, and a huge diversion in the Middle East could help.

Edited October 13, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89422]

44 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

This will be an interesting panel by an organization of which I am proud to be a member.  Join today at 10:00a if you can for an informative panel discussion online:

https://act.ajc.org/site/MessageViewer?em_id=73144.0&dlv_id=52002

I wouldn't want to be a part of any organization that would have me as a member.

[NoName 16295]

35 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 But all evidence indicates that there is no coordination between Hamas and Iran/Hizbullah.

If Iran were coordinating all this, presumably it would have had Hizbullah conduct attacks from Lebanon at the same time Hamas was attacking from Gaza.  But there has been no meaningful attack from Lebanon.  The only thing Hizbullah has done is fire off some rockets that were already positioned and could be fired off with little/no preparation.  

Nor has there been any real move by Iran against . . . anybody.  Iran could ramp up its activities in the Gulf to draw the United States Navy away from the Eastern Mediterranean.  Or it could prompt action from the Houthis to strike at the Saudi oilfields.  Or it could do all manner of shit in Iraq.  It's done nothing.  It's issuing a bunch of mean tweets, and that's it.

That's not to say that things can develop.  This is a serious shooting war in a volatile region.  But it is to say that I don't see any basis to believe that there is some grand scheme or stratagem at play here.  It looks like Hamas just Leeroy Jenkinsed this shit.

1) clearly you did not read the thread or article and just said a bunch of wild shit based on a complete lack of information

article link: https://archive.ph/UxYIr

Farnaz Fassihi was involved in this article and is a good voice from Iran

there is an incredible amount of coordination with Hezbollah specifically - but overall not Iran directly. and that has been made clear by both Israeli and American sources and what they have said specifically

Quote

Gen. Esmail Ghaani, who is in charge of supervising Iran’s network of proxy militias as head of the country’s paramilitary Quds Force, repeatedly traveled to Lebanon for covert sessions with leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, a Shiite Lebanese militia that Iran also supports.

Over the past year, Mr. Ghaani worked to coordinate and unify all of Iran’s proxies, according to public statements from Iranian analysts and five Iranians familiar with the work of the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

+

Quote

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, held an hourslong online meeting in March with an elite group of strategists from all the Iran-backed militias and told them to get ready for a war with Israel with a scope and reach — including a ground invasion — that would mark a new era, according to two participants from Iran and Syria. The participants spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the meeting.

There are conflicting accounts of whether these activities were leading specifically toward last week’s attack by Hamas, which left 1,200 Israelis dead and shattered the country’s sense of security.

Some people familiar with the operation said that a tight circle of leaders from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas helped plan the attack starting over a year ago, trained militants and had advanced knowledge of it. That account is based on interviews with three Iranians affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, one Iranian connected to senior leadership and a Syrian affiliated with Hezbollah.

Other people say they believe Iran had some involvement but it was not as deep. “The implementation was all Hamas, but we do not deny Iran’s help and support,” said Ali Barakeh, a senior Hamas official based in Beirut.

no smoking Iran gun

Quote

The United States, Israel and key regional allies have said they have not found evidence in early intelligence gathering that Iran directly helped plan the attack. The United States has collected multiple pieces of intelligence that show that key Iranian leaders were surprised by it, according to several American officials, including people who would typically be aware of operations involving the Quds Forces.

Israel has also been examining what it knew. “Israeli intelligence does not have any information according to which Iran initiated or was involved or directly assisted in the terrible attack,” said Nir Dinar, a spokesman for Israel’s military. “On the other hand, one has to be naïve to think that those in Tehran woke up on Saturday morning and were surprised to hear the news about what happened.”

how long they had been training:

Quote

Hamas gunmen captured and interrogated by Israel said they had been training for the latest operation for a year, according to Israeli defense officials. Abu Ubaida, the Hamas spokesman in the Gaza Strip, said in a televised speech that the group had organized a 3,000-person battalion for the attack and had another 1,500 backup fighters. On Tuesday, Israel said it had killed close to 1,600 of those attackers.

Hezbollah training info:
 

Quote

 

Still, training had been taking place in Lebanon and Syria, and a secret joint command center had been set up in Beirut, according to the Iranians and the Syrian familiar with the operation.

Hezbollah’s top commandos, experienced in urban guerrilla warfare, trained Hamas members in Syria and Lebanon, according to two Iranians. Paragliders trained in Lebanon, they said, while in Syria, the Hamas members were trained to raid Israeli communities and take civilians hostage

 

here is her thread on it

 

Spoiler

 

2) there is nothing about this that makes it appear they went off half cocked and didn't do any planning on this.

https://news.yahoo.com/senior-hamas-official-admits-israel-173726321.html

Quote

 

A senior Hamas official stated during a Russian television interview that the Israel attacks had been planned for years under the guise of governing Gaza.

"In the past couple of years, Hamas has adopted a 'rational' approach. It did not go into any war and did not join the Islamic Jihad in its recent battle," senior Hamas official Ali Baraka said in an interview that aired on Russia Today TV on Oct. 8.

The interviewer interjected, "But all this was part of Hamas's strategy in preparing for this attack."

"Of course," Baraka said, according to the translation by the Middle East Media Research Institute, a nonprofit press monitoring and analysis organization co-founded by a former Israeli military intelligence officer and an Israeli American political scientist. "We made them think that Hamas was busy with governing Gaza, and that it wanted to focus on the 2.5 million Palestinians [in Gaza], and has abandoned the resistance altogether."

"All the while, under the table, Hamas was preparing for this big attack," Baraka continued. "The rockets of the resistance cover all of Palestine. Where would [Netanyahu] take [the Israelis who were attacked]? To Tel Aviv? We bombed Tel Aviv on the very first day of the attack. Does he want to take them to the Galilee? The northern front – with Lebanon – has opened today. The Galilee is no longer safe for the Zionist enemy. We can bomb the Galilee from inside occupied Palestine."

"The Israelis are known to love life. We, on the other hand, sacrifice ourselves. We consider our dead to be martyrs. The thing any Palestinian desires the most is to be martyred for the sake of Allah, defending his land," he continued. "We have been preparing for this for two years. We have local factories for everything. We have rockets with ranges of 250 kilometers, 160 kilometers, 80 kilometers, 45 kilometers and 10 kilometers."

 

the money quote is below the fold on this quote box so re-posting it in full:

Quote

"The Israelis are known to love life. We, on the other hand, sacrifice ourselves. We consider our dead to be martyrs. The thing any Palestinian desires the most is to be martyred for the sake of Allah, defending his land," he continued. "We have been preparing for this for two years. We have local factories for everything. We have rockets with ranges of 250 kilometers, 160 kilometers, 80 kilometers, 45 kilometers and 10 kilometers."

don't come in here and say wild shit that isn't backed up by facts. go to the CR thread for that.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by NoName

[NoName 16295]

more

setting up for ground invasion

 

 

 

 

hostage thread

Edited October 13, 2023 by NoName

[MissingInAction 24815]

I've been pretty neutral on the matter due to the lack of any cohesive and reliable data, but fucking with my Fridays is a bridge too far.

[B00M 6280]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

 

 

The last reporter to ask a question sounded like a Hamas sympathizer, asking if Blinken had seen evidence of murdered babies and raped women. He side stepped her bullshit question and elaborated. Impressive appearance by Blinken. 

[Ghost of LL 15489]

1 minute ago, NoName said:

1) clearly you did not read the thread or article and just said a bunch of wild shit based on a complete lack of information

article link: https://archive.ph/UxYIr

there is an incredible amount of coordination with Hezbollah specifically - but overall not Iran directly. and that has been made clear by both Israeli and American sources and what they have said specifically

+

no smoking Iran gun

how long they had been training:

Hezbollah training info:
 

2) there is nothing about this that makes it appear they went off half cocked and didn't do any planning on this.

https://news.yahoo.com/senior-hamas-official-admits-israel-173726321.html

the money quote is below the fold on this quote box so re-posting it in full:

don't come in here and say wild shit that isn't backed up by facts. go to the CR thread for that.

I did read the thread.  I just don't draw the same inferences as you do.

So there were meetings between Hamas and Hizbullah.  No shit.  There are routinely meetings between Hamas and Hizbullah.  But one cannot conclude from those meetings that they coordinated this particular attack.  

In fact, there's no evidence that Hamas and Hizbullah coordinated the timing, means, and methods of Hamas's present attack.  There's no evidence of any coordination; all the evidence indicates a complete absence of coordination.  And the Hamas statements you identify reflects that this is a Hamas-only operation.  When the Hamas spokesman says "we have been preparing for this for two years," the "we" in that sentence is Hamas.  That is very clear from the context.

I used the Leroy Jenkins analogy purposefully.  I have no doubt that Hamas joins in with Hizbullah, the IRGC, the PFLP, and Islamic Jihad in regular meetings to discuss how they're going to go attack the "Zionist Entity."  But Hamas is charging in on its own right now and leaving everyone else to decide what to do now.

[atomheartbevo 89422]

8 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I've been pretty neutral on the matter due to the lack of any cohesive and reliable data, but fucking with my Fridays is a bridge too far.

Saw a visible police/security presence at our local Jewish congregation/school this morning.  I can't imagine what the parents are thinking.

5 minutes ago, B00M said:

The last reporter to ask a question sounded like a Hamas sympathizer, asking if Blinken had seen evidence of murdered babies and raped women. He side stepped her bullshit question and elaborated. Impressive appearance by Blinken. 

There's asking questions as a journalist, and there's "just asking questions" like a Joe Rogan type.

[NoName 16295]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

I did read the thread.  I just don't draw the same inferences as you do.

So there were meetings between Hamas and Hizbullah.  No shit.  There are routinely meetings between Hamas and Hizbullah.  But one cannot conclude from those meetings that they coordinated this particular attack.  

In fact, there's no evidence that Hamas and Hizbullah coordinated the timing, means, and methods of Hamas's present attack.  There's no evidence of any coordination; all the evidence indicates a complete absence of coordination.  And the Hamas statements you identify reflects that this is a Hamas-only operation.  When the Hamas spokesman says "we have been preparing for this for two years," the "we" in that sentence is Hamas.  That is very clear from the context.

I used the Leroy Jenkins analogy purposefully.  I have no doubt that Hamas joins in with Hizbullah, the IRGC, the PFLP, and Islamic Jihad in regular meetings to discuss how they're going to go attack the "Zionist Entity."  But Hamas is charging in on its own right now and leaving everyone else to decide what to do now.

its pretty specific stuff in the article. to me, there is not a lot to be inferred from things like this:

from NYT article:

Quote

Over the past six months, Hezbollah created provocations meant to mislead and distract Israel along its northern border with Lebanon and in Syria so it would think the real threat was coming from those areas, according to two Iranians briefed after the attack.

and

Quote

Some people familiar with the operation said that a tight circle of leaders from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas helped plan the attack starting over a year ago, trained militants and had advanced knowledge of it. That account is based on interviews with three Iranians affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, one Iranian connected to senior leadership and a Syrian affiliated with Hezbollah.

and

Quote

“The implementation was all Hamas, but we do not deny Iran’s help and support,” said Ali Barakeh, a senior Hamas official based in Beirut.

and

Quote

Still, training had been taking place in Lebanon and Syria, and a secret joint command center had been set up in Beirut, according to the Iranians and the Syrian familiar with the operation.

Hezbollah’s top commandos, experienced in urban guerrilla warfare, trained Hamas members in Syria and Lebanon, according to two Iranians. Paragliders trained in Lebanon, they said, while in Syria, the Hamas members were trained to raid Israeli communities and take civilians hostage

WSJ:

Quote

Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.

Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas, which holds power in Gaza, and Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political faction in Lebanon, they said.

and

Quote

A European official and an adviser to the Syrian government, however, gave the same account of Iran’s involvement in the lead-up to the attack as the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members.

and

Quote

Representatives of these groups have met with Quds Force leaders at least biweekly in Lebanon since August to discuss this weekend’s attack on Israel and what happens next, they said. Qaani has attended some of those meetings along with Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, Islamic Jihad leader al-Nakhalah, and Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas’s military chief, the militant-group members said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian attended at least two of the meetings, they said.

“An attack of such scope could only have happened after months of planning and would not have happened without coordination with Iran,” said Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute at the University of London. “Hamas, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, does not single-handedly make decisions to engage in war without prior explicit agreement from Iran.”

if you think Hamas did this on their own exclusively, idk what to tell you. this is not backed up by either of these reports and articles.

at this point we have corroborating info from WSJ, NYT and other sources saying pretty conclusively that Hamas worked with those orgs to train and collaborated (6 months of provocations along northern border, hostage training, paragliding, planning)

Leroy Jenkings analogy sounds like they just fucked around and sent a bunch of dudes across with minimal planning and goals and with no clear idea of kidnapping people (the operatives didn't just come to this on their own, and if you are kidnapping that many you have to have ideas for where you are going to keep them, feed them, etc ahead of time)

these dudes didn't go out paragliding because of the weather then halfway through decide "hey there is a music festival, let's go kill em" nor were they life long paragliders.

you can pick which you believe and trust, we just are not going to see eye to eye on this front.

this seems pretty crystal clear to me, but to say there is "no evidence of any coordination" is choosing to ignore a lot of reporting on this very specific topic.

[Nivek 16859]

4 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Hamas is saying 13 hostages are dead from Israel's shelling/bombings.

Quote

https://clip.cafe/romancing-the-stone-1984/i-dont-have-any-idea/

Who told you that?  The nice man that pulled a gun on you.  What else did he tell you?

[BabaYaga 15212]

7 minutes ago, NoName said:

this seems pretty crystal clear to me, but to say there is "no evidence of any coordination" is choosing to ignore a lot of reporting on this very specific topic.

Beyond all this, look at the hardware used.  Much of it was western gear.  AR's, body armor, helmets, etc.  Where'd that come from?  My guess is left over gear from Afghanistan.  

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, Nivek said:

Who told you that?  The nice man that pulled a gun on you.  What else did he tell you?

maybe they've invented bombs that wipe out Hamas fighters but not the hostages they're guarding?

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Beyond all this, look at the hardware used.  Much of it was western gear.  AR's, body armor, helmets, etc.  Where'd that come from?  My guess is left over gear from Afghanistan.  

Thanks a lot, Biden.

[Deej 76564]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

I’ve been stuck for hours in a parking deck just leaving a football game.

Obviously not last night WVU/UH game. 

[Don Johnson 4745]

 

[Ghost of LL 15489]

13 minutes ago, NoName said:

its pretty specific stuff in the article. to me, there is not a lot to be inferred from things like this:

from NYT article:

and

and

and

WSJ:

and

and

if you think Hamas did this on their own exclusively, idk what to tell you. this is not backed up by either of these reports and articles.

at this point we have corroborating info from WSJ, NYT and other sources saying pretty conclusively that Hamas worked with those orgs to train and collaborated (6 months of provocations along northern border, hostage training, paragliding, planning)

Leroy Jenkings analogy sounds like they just fucked around and sent a bunch of dudes across with minimal planning and goals and with no clear idea of kidnapping people (the operatives didn't just come to this on their own, and if you are kidnapping that many you have to have ideas for where you are going to keep them, feed them, etc ahead of time)

these dudes didn't go out paragliding because of the weather then halfway through decide "hey there is a music festival, let's go kill em" nor were they life long paragliders.

you can pick which you believe and trust, we just are not going to see eye to eye on this front.

this seems pretty crystal clear to me, but to say there is "no evidence of any coordination" is choosing to ignore a lot of reporting on this very specific topic.

You don't have shit.  You have a bunch of people talking to The New York Times offering their conclusions based on scattered pieces of evidence.  Perhaps you find their conclusions persuasive; I do not.

It doesn't mean I'm posting "weird shit," as you allege.  It means that I disagree with conclusions that are contrary to other facts that we all see.  There is nothing going on right now in any other theater that would reflect any ongoing coordination with Iran or Hizbullah.  

Iran has certainly provided weapons and materiel to Hamas.  It provided those weapons with the specific objective and intent that they be used to attack Israel.  And I'm sure they have talked about the means and methods of perpetrating such an attack.

But this discussion started in the context of the action expanding into a broader conflict.  And there's no evidence of ongoing coordination between Hamas and Iran/Hizbullah that would indicate an expansion is imminent.

And that's a real good thing for Israel, because it has its hands full right now with Gaza.  And Israel has demonstrated in the past that it can get real bogged down in Southern Lebanon if it also has to go take on Hizbullah.  So the last thing it needs is a two-front war that may even draw in Syria.

[Ghost of LL 15489]

13 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Beyond all this, look at the hardware used.  Much of it was western gear.  AR's, body armor, helmets, etc.  Where'd that come from?  My guess is left over gear from Afghanistan.  

Pretty much any gun store in Texas.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

4 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

 

yeesh. Are we sure any of that is real? If so...

First, that 'ad' is fucking terrible and shameful.

Second, I understand the desire to just demolish and destroy right now if I'm Israel.

But third, you can't arrest someone and destroy their building/means of living for a really, really shitty 'ad'.

[InkaUtexas 25516]

Concerning the gear. There is a lot of that equipment around the Middle East. US equipment is provided to the Lebanese military (who might be happy to pass it on), the Kurds, and in the past to Syrian groups. Yes, some could be coming from Afghanistan but until serial numbers are checked we won't know. At one time you could buy body armor in Downtown Dubai at a safety/security store. 

Another source for everything except the AR's is Syria. They buy equipment from Iran, Russia and China. I also saw AK's being carried. 

 

[BabaYaga 15212]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Pretty much any gun store in Texas.

Those are some long ass tunnels

[InkaUtexas 25516]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

yeesh. Are we sure any of that is real? If so...

First, that 'ad' is fucking terrible and shameful.

Second, I understand the desire to just demolish and destroy right now if I'm Israel.

But third, you can't arrest someone and destroy their building/means of living for a really, really shitty 'ad'.

Israel destroys the homes of terrorists or anyone inciting violence. It is not a new practice. 

[SimonBolivar 10920]

What would be the SOP for attacking a city like Gaza City right now if you're the IDF? Do you encircle and siege claiming a warning was given today for anyone left and then go in after a few weeks of breaking their will? Or will it be a direct assault and a ton of house-to-house shittery coming soon? It seems the IDF is similar to Western armies in some ways, but their first attacks being on mosques and a total blockage of supplies to Gaza shows there are differences too.

[BabaYaga 15212]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Concerning the gear. There is a lot of that equipment around the Middle East. US equipment is provided to the Lebanese military (who might be happy to pass it on), the Kurds, and in the past to Syrian groups. Yes, some could be coming from Afghanistan but until serial numbers are checked we won't know. At one time you could buy body armor in Downtown Dubai at a safety/security store. 

Another source for everything except the AR's is Syria. They buy equipment from Iran, Russia and China. I also saw AK's being carried. 

 

Yeah, it could come from anywhere.  What I've noticed that you never saw in the past are all the AR's have optics mounted on them.  That is new.  ACOGs especially.  If those were available in the past everyone would be using them.  SO much easier to shoot with, especially in low light.  

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Concerning the gear. There is a lot of that equipment around the Middle East. US equipment is provided to the Lebanese military (who might be happy to pass it on), the Kurds, and in the past to Syrian groups. Yes, some could be coming from Afghanistan but until serial numbers are checked we won't know. At one time you could buy body armor in Downtown Dubai at a safety/security store. 
Another source for everything except the AR's is Syria. They buy equipment from Iran, Russia and China. I also saw AK's being carried. 
 

It’s CNN so probably doesn’t count.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/13/middleeast/hamas-weapons-invs/index.html

[BabaYaga 15212]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

What would be the SOP for attacking a city like Gaza City right now if you're the IDF? Do you encircle and siege claiming a warning was given today for anyone left and then go in after a few weeks of breaking their will? Or will it be a direct assault and a ton of house-to-house shittery coming soon? It seems the IDF is similar to Western armies in some ways, but their first attacks being on mosques and a total blockage of supplies to Gaza shows there are differences too.

Probably secure all the entry/egress points, then send in teams to hit primary targets first.  It's going to take a long time.  Intel from one target > next target.  Dry holes.  People slipping away.  It will be brutal, urban warfare on a grand scale.  My guess is they'll target mosques and other obvious targets and try to identify and take out all the tunnels

[Ghost of LL 15489]

5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Those are some long ass tunnels

I know--I've been in the ones in Downtown Houston.

7 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

yeesh. Are we sure any of that is real? If so...

First, that 'ad' is fucking terrible and shameful.

Second, I understand the desire to just demolish and destroy right now if I'm Israel.

But third, you can't arrest someone and destroy their building/means of living for a really, really shitty 'ad'.

This is what it is to live under a tyrannical foreign occupation.

I'm sorry if this offends people, but the military's ability to arbitrarily take and destroy your property, livelihood, and life with no notice, right to compensation, or recourse to the judiciary or other authority is the definition of tyranny.  

And I can hold the two thoughts in my brain simultaneously that (1) Hamas has committed monstrous atrocities and should justifiably be destroyed and (2) Israel has been operating a tyrannical occupation for more than a half-century that ought to end.

[BabaYaga 15212]

2 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

It’s CNN so probably doesn’t count.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/13/middleeast/hamas-weapons-invs/index.html

Hard hitting journalism right here:

Quote

“If you hold down the trigger, you can empty the whole magazine

And zero mention of western weapons with modern optics.   Good job CNN, keep up the good work.  

[InkaUtexas 25516]

5 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

It’s CNN so probably doesn’t count.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/13/middleeast/hamas-weapons-invs/index.html

And the article does not say they came from US equipment left behind. 

[NoName 16295]

32 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

You don't have shit.  You have a bunch of people talking to The New York Times offering their conclusions based on scattered pieces of evidence.  Perhaps you find their conclusions persuasive; I do not.

It doesn't mean I'm posting "weird shit," as you allege.  It means that I disagree with conclusions that are contrary to other facts that we all see.  There is nothing going on right now in any other theater that would reflect any ongoing coordination with Iran or Hizbullah.  

Iran has certainly provided weapons and materiel to Hamas.  It provided those weapons with the specific objective and intent that they be used to attack Israel.  And I'm sure they have talked about the means and methods of perpetrating such an attack.

But this discussion started in the context of the action expanding into a broader conflict.  And there's no evidence of ongoing coordination between Hamas and Iran/Hizbullah that would indicate an expansion is imminent.

And that's a real good thing for Israel, because it has its hands full right now with Gaza.  And Israel has demonstrated in the past that it can get real bogged down in Southern Lebanon if it also has to go take on Hizbullah.  So the last thing it needs is a two-front war that may even draw in Syria.

we pretty clearly aren't going to agree here.

if you think there was and is no ongoing coordination with those groups then so be it.

Edited October 13, 2023 by NoName

[ztejas 43264]

I think a lot of it is black market/arms dealers shit. How the M4s get to the black market is a good discussion. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

9 minutes ago, NoName said:

we pretty clearly aren't going to agree here.

if you think there was and is no ongoing coordination with those groups then so be it.

I don't think that is what he is saying. They certainly coordinate to some extent. But there isn't a ton of evidence for the type of coordination suggested by that twitter thread, i.e., coordination to bring about a massive regional conflict. 

[SimonBolivar 10920]

20 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Probably secure all the entry/egress points, then send in teams to hit primary targets first.  It's going to take a long time.  Intel from one target > next target.  Dry holes.  People slipping away.  It will be brutal, urban warfare on a grand scale.  My guess is they'll target mosques and other obvious targets and try to identify and take out all the tunnels

That makes sense. It'll be interesting to see what they have learned from previous encounters in Gaza and the failures that other nations have had in urban combat in this century.

[bolverk 29399]

59 minutes ago, NoName said:

Quote

Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas, which holds power in Gaza, and Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political faction in Lebanon, they said.

and

Quote

A European official and an adviser to the Syrian government, however, gave the same account of Iran’s involvement in the lead-up to the attack as the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members.

 

At the risk of sounding too much like an obsessed Russophobe, what other European country would have an "official" who is "an adviser to the Syrian government"? 

If I'm reading this correctly, the reporting is that a "European official" had foreknowledge of operational planning sessions between these various groups for an attack on Israel.

Am I reading this correctly?

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2868]

Disgusting. Vile. Subhuman. America.

[Skipper 6103]

53 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

I'm sorry if this offends people, but the military's ability to arbitrarily take and destroy your property, livelihood, and life with no notice, right to compensation, or recourse to the judiciary or other authority is the definition of tyranny.  

 

Easier to say from the comfort of a high rise office in Austin when you don't have neighboring citizens with this philosophy on life:

"The Israelis are known to love life. We, on the other hand, sacrifice ourselves. We consider our dead to be martyrs. The thing any Palestinian desires the most is to be martyred for the sake of Allah, defending his land,"

[Poe It Up 126]

9 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Disgusting. Vile. Subhuman. America.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2868]

3 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

Referring to the UW video above.

[Foosters 17731]

16 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Disgusting. Vile. Subhuman. America.

[Ghost of LL 15489]

13 minutes ago, NoName said:

we pretty clearly aren't going to agree here.

if you think there was and is no ongoing coordination with those groups then so be it.

 

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think that is what he is saying. They certainly coordinate to some extent. But there isn't a ton of evidence for the type of coordination suggested by that twitter thread, i.e., coordination to bring about a massive regional conflict. 

Thank you.

We're talking about two entirely different things.  And my comments have been specifically toward addressing the twitter thread, which draws a conclusion that isn't supported by the underlying facts (or even the opinions expressed in the New York Times article).  That conclusion is that Iran/Hizbullah are coordinating today as though there were some sort of unified command, and that we should expect an imminent expansion of the conflict.  

[Frank Drebin 5622]

 

 

[Ghost of LL 15489]

11 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Easier to say from the comfort of a high rise office in Austin when you don't have neighboring citizens with this philosophy on life:

"The Israelis are known to love life. We, on the other hand, sacrifice ourselves. We consider our dead to be martyrs. The thing any Palestinian desires the most is to be martyred for the sake of Allah, defending his land,"

How does that justify bulldozing the guy's pizza shop over a tasteless advertisement?

And don't you think such arbitrary and tyrannical exercise of power might give rise to the Palestinian sentiment expressed in your quote?

Look, man--I have long supported Israel.  I think my posting history reflects that.  And as a supporter of Israel, I am pretty comfortable saying that the policies successive Israeli governments have pursued--but none more vigorously than the Netanyahu Government--have been detrimental to Israeli security.

[bolverk 29399]

Looks like the deadline is in about 20 minutes. I sure hope the elderly, the infirm, and all the children make it.

 

NYTimes article on some 500-600 US citizens stuck in the Gaza Strip with no way to get out.

Quote

 

On Friday, the Israel Defense Forces said civilians in the northern part of Gaza should evacuate to the south, “for their own safety and protection.”

“I feel like I’ve been abandoned by my country,” said Lena Beseiso, 57, who lives in Salt Lake City, Utah, and is caught in Gaza with her husband, two of her daughters and a 10-year-old grandson. “We’re American citizens and we’re not being treated as American citizens.”

John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said that Israel’s blockade was for now preventing the American government from transporting its citizens out of Gaza. He said that the White House was in talks with Israel and Egypt about the safe passage of civilians out of Gaza, including Americans, but that no breakthrough had been reached.

“Right now, they — they can’t leave. So, we would have no physical means of permitting that transit out,” Mr. Kirby said during a press briefing on Thursday. “And so, that’s why we’re so actively having conversations with the Israelis and the Egyptians about a safe passage corridor so that people who want to leave can leave.

U.S. officials estimated that 500 to 600 American citizens were in Gaza.

For now, there is nothing to do but wait and hope and pray. Ms. Beseiso and her family, who are in Gaza visiting relatives, tried to flee on Tuesday, she said, but the Israeli military bombed the Rafah crossing to Egypt while they were there, shuttering it. The family was told to return to Gaza for safety, and Ms. Beseiso is now sheltering in a building with her 87-year-old mother-in-law. The family has no water or electricity, she said.

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34440]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think that is what he is saying. They certainly coordinate to some extent. But there isn't a ton of evidence for the type of coordination suggested by that twitter thread, i.e., coordination to bring about a massive regional conflict. 

That isn’t how I read the thread or the NYT article.  My understanding is that there’s been active and ongoing collaboration by Iran and Hezbollah to train, equip, and encourage Hamas to step up their activity against Israel. And at the same time Hezbollah and Iran coordinated their own pressure and violence campaign to draw Israel offsides from focusing on Hamas and to take advantage of Israel’s fractured internal politics. I think all that’s really plausible and the NYT article is well-sourced. 
 

But they may not have been directing or planning this specific attack and what happened. And now that the extent of their involvement with Hamas is becoming known, this could lead to a regional war because of the strategy they implemented.  

[Dahobbs 17447]

8 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

That isn’t how I read the thread or the NYT article.  My understanding is that there’s been active and ongoing collaboration by Iran and Hezbollah to train, equip, and encourage Hamas to step up their activity against Israel. And at the same time Hezbollah and Iran coordinated their own pressure and violence campaign to draw Israel offsides from focusing on Hamas and to take advantage of Israel’s fractured internal politics. I think all that’s really plausible and the NYT article is well-sourced. 
 

But they may not have been directing or planning this specific attack and what happened. And now that the extent of their involvement with Hamas is becoming known, this could lead to a regional war because of the strategy they implemented.  

The twitter thread ended with this:

"My analysis: This extraordinarily detailed new reporting from the New York Times indicates that we may be heading towards a regional war whose architects are Tehran and Hezbollah."

I read that to be concluding that Tehran and Hezbollah intended to create and participate in a broader regional war. But I suppose the term "architects" is somewhat vague and could be argued doesn't necessarily denote a specific intent. 

[Da Fino 2740]

 

Coincidently, A buddy sent me this today probably from facebook or reddit. I don't know enough about AR's other than owning a couple, but the story about leftovers from Afghanistan sure read like bullshit to me.