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kenpom 2024

shadow_operative

By shadow_operative
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ztejas

ztejas 43411

Posted
Posted

26 is damn good considering where we were after the UCF game. 

I'm starting to think 8-10 in this league gets you dancing. I mean for fuck's sake we're 26th in kenpom, 32nd in NET and we have a losing record in conference play.

Have fun with this Texas team as your 8/9 in the ro32. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
On 1/14/2024 at 9:48 PM, shadow_operative said:

some notable kenpom stats: 

 

Texas:

start: 16

peak: 16

valley: 43

now: 43

 

Ole Miss:

start: 82

peak: 70

valley: 130

now: 70

 

Tennessee:

start: 8

peak: 5

valley: 11

now: 8

 

Marquette:

start: 11

peak: 5

valley: 19

now: 19

 

Oklahoma:

start: 48

peak: 20

valley: 48

now: 20

 

A&M:

start: 24

peak: 13

valley: 35

now: 35

updated:

Texas:

start: 16

peak: 16

valley: 48

now: 26

 

Ole Miss:

start: 82

peak: 61

valley: 130

now: 63

 

Tennessee:

start: 8

peak: 3

valley: 11

now: 6

 

Marquette:

start: 11

peak: 5

valley: 19

now: 11

 

Oklahoma:

start: 48

peak: 19

valley: 48

now: 25

 

A&M:

start: 24

peak: 13

valley: 46

now: 46

Edited by shadow_operative
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ztejas

ztejas 43411

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

WVU went to the tournament last year as a 9 seed at 7-11 in conference.

Largely because okie lite was ineligible at 8-10. 

There's precedent for 8-10 getting in but it's very case by case.

I think 9-9 would be a lock.

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dcar00

dcar00 14151

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

indiana state is fun:

 

IMG_8526.jpeg

IMG_8527.jpeg

IMG_8528.jpeg

i’d love to see them make a postseason run.

45 years later....

totally forgot we beat them in 2000 in first round and they beat the dirt burglers as a 13 seed in the first round in 2001.

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

it’s when you look at our conference kenpom numbers that you see why the eyeball test for Texas does not match up with a team that’s no.32 in kenpom and 26th/46th in AdjO/AdjD. the things that we are really bad at are some of the worst things to be really bad at. 

on offense we turn the ball over, we don’t get to the line, and we don’t rebound our own misses; on defense we give up a very high FG%, we give up lots of offensive rebounds, and we are atrocious at defending the three. our blemishes are really bad blemishes to have, and you can’t hide them. we have to hope for other teams to just have bad days in these areas, or for foul trouble to neutralize them.

high floor + few blemishes = postseason success. we have a pretty low floor and lots of bad blemishes. we absolutely have to be clicking offensively and hitting from deep if we want to advance in either tournament.

 

Edited by shadow_operative
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JGrayDBU

JGrayDBU 338

Posted
Posted

So we're a part of the #1 conference, and the only 2 bad losses were the back to back losses to W. Virginia and UCF.  If we can get healthy, we should be able to win 2 or 3 games in the NCAA tourney. 

Maybe we will get lucky and avoid a repeat of last year's referee saga.  I still remember exactly where I was watching that crazy game when the refs refused to make one call in the 2nd half against that other team.  Don't remember the other team, just the refs' and their actions.  

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45880

Posted
Posted
On 3/10/2024 at 10:11 PM, JGrayDBU said:

So we're a part of the #1 conference, and the only 2 bad losses were the back to back losses to W. Virginia and UCF.  If we can get healthy, we should be able to win 2 or 3 games in the NCAA tourney. 

We're pretty much guaranteed to face a #2 or #1 seed in the second round if we get there.  I'm not liking our chances of even 2 wins.

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HookEm

HookEm 2463

Posted
Posted

Finally broke down and spent $20 on a KenPom subscription. Some interesting stuff in here.  Looking at home court advantage.  Things are going to get a lot easier in the SEC from that perspective.  And that doesn't account for the fact that all those big 12 teams hate Texas and have by far their best crowd of the year when they play us.

Big 12 - 3 top-5, 12 top-50

  • #1 Tech
  • #2 West Virginia
  • #3 TCU
  • #14 OU
  • #17 BYU
  • #20 ISU
  • #25 Texas
  • #27 KU
  • #30 Baylor
  • #39 Cinci
  • #41 K-State
  • $48 OSU

SEC - 0 top-5, 6 top-50

  • #13 Miss St
  • #23 Tennessee
  • #24 Arkansas
  • #26 Alabama
  • #33 Auburn
  • #37 Kentucky
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Blotto

Blotto 23487

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Things are going to get a lot easier in the SEC from that perspective.  And that doesn't account for the fact that all those big 12 teams hate Texas and have by far their best crowd of the year when they play us.

give it a year or two in the SEC. Once we have the conference headquarters moved to CDC's back yard, hating Texas will be the norm in the SEC as  well. But fuck em. 

7 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Another interesting chart... ranking the current teams by experience.  I knew we had to be one of the most experienced teams in the country, and turns out we are.

The fact that Brock is only a couple of seasons away from a state pension probably skews those results. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14151

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HookEm said:

Another interesting chart... ranking the current teams by experience.  I knew we had to be one of the most experienced teams in the country, and turns out we are.

image.thumb.png.8ff9cca5678ab012a2567ba949b15888.png

It is interesting.  A caveat is that with the portal it isn't like the old days when a 3.3 number would mean you have juniors and seniors who have been in the program for 3-4 years.

maybe that is what the continuity column is for?

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HookEm

HookEm 2463

Posted
Posted

Yep.  For continuity, FAU is #1 (and also #41 in Experience).  I would NOT want to play them in the tourney.

Wisconsin is #8 in Continuity and #48 in Experience.  Creighton is #40 in Continuity and #8 in Experience.  Also a team I wouldn't want to play.

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HookEm

HookEm 2463

Posted
Posted

This year to date:

  • Overall - #25
  • AdjO - #27
  • AdjD - #39

Chris Beard (2022):

  • Overall - #15
  • AdjO - #26
  • AdjD - #14

Shaka Smart (2016-2021):

  • Overall - #43
  • AdjO - #77
  • AdjD - #26

Rick Barnes (1999-2015):

  • Overall - #25
  • AdjO - #38
  • AdjD - #39
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dcar00

dcar00 14151

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, HookEm said:

This year to date:

  • Overall - #25
  • AdjO - #27
  • AdjD - #39

Chris Beard (2022):

  • Overall - #15
  • AdjO - #26
  • AdjD - #14

Shaka Smart (2016-2021):

  • Overall - #43
  • AdjO - #77
  • AdjD - #26

Rick Barnes (1999-2015):

  • Overall - #25
  • AdjO - #38
  • AdjD - #39

so after the game they are going to scooby doo and pull off Rodney Terry's mask to reveal Rick Barnes as the fake Barnes for Tennessee tries to get away.  They capture him and pull of his mask to reveal.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Beard

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HookEm

HookEm 2463

Posted
Posted

I thought it might be interesting to trend the data from all of Derka's KenPom updates through the year.  It seemed like the team got a lot better in the later part of the year, especially on defense and I wanted to see what the data looked like. 

The blue line is offense rating, the green line is defense.  The solid line is where we finished the year.

We ended up finishing about where we started on offense.  KenPom's had us at #30 in the preseason and we finished at #29. Most of the season we in that range.  

Defense was a different story. KenPom had us at #6 to start the year and it took us it took 6-7 games for the model to settle in where we belonged ~50-60.  Our average and median rank was 44 and 50 respectively.   We bottomed out after the BYU game ranking #74!! on defense.  For me, that felt like the low point of the season. 

From there, we took Houston to OT and then beat TCU and K-State and punished West Virginia.  The only real defensive lapse was giving up 93 to Baylor, which accounted for the spike toward the end of the season. Overall, there was a definite positive trend in the last 2 months of the season.    

image.thumb.png.b2969a67ff5b019586a32f5942d51a8f.png

 

Our overall ranking mirrored our defensive ranking to a large degree.  

image.png.1bbc02f7a90f2da3b6e0eec11d8ba944.png

 

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dcar00

dcar00 14151

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Posted

good stuff. our offense was consistent, our defense was not(wild swings).  I think that is where you get the D was not good.  People just looking at games at a macro level might view it that way.  games 5-30 we are running about 50.

on D high of (lets call it 20 after a few games), low of 74

on O high of 20 and low of 49(?)

As you say, the trend line was better the end of the year on D.

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PantsTent

PantsTent 2002

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

 

The AP got 9 of 12 with FAU vs Alabama the difference.  Both are based on historical success and returning production. AP put way more weight to FAU's improbably run last year, where KP takes a longer term success trend.

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HookEm

HookEm 2463

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Posted

KenPom had us at #16 pre-season, and we were an improbable pair of made TN free throw away from potentially making the Sweet 16.  The only other schools who got close were Oakland, Colorado and A&M.  So you could say we finished the year in the 17-20 range.  Pretty solid prediction. 

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