Game Week Thread Week 8, 2023: Byu @ Texas

[DaysOff 7951]

UT-17
BYU-38
BYU Points off Turnovers-24

aggy

[totallynotabuttpirate 5400]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

So, two examples of 5* that played as JAG+ here.  Development?  Or bad eval?

Cook's lack of athleticism was a bad eval. Foster was a little of both. 

[MIkeHoncho 1922]

Since the safest and most common assumption is that we are going to have a conservative, run-heavy game plan, I think it wold be awesome for Sark to come out with a Mike Leach game plan, with the wide splits on the OL and everything.  Could also play well for Maalik.  Easy reads, quick throws, let the receivers work. 

My bigger concern is PK telling his defenders to avoid the middle of the field like their playing the-floor-is-lava game.  

[Codaxx 5762]

6 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Cook's lack of athleticism was a bad eval. Foster was a little of both. 

Cook was a 4 star by the time he signed. The direction of the rankings can be more important, than the actual ranking. Cook was a 5 star as a young player and it became apparent that he was pretty maxed out athletically at the Senior Bowl (I think). 

[Codaxx 5762]

5 minutes ago, MIkeHoncho said:

Since the safest and most common assumption is that we are going to have a conservative, run-heavy game plan, I think it wold be awesome for Sark to come out with a Mike Leach game plan, with the wide splits on the OL and everything.  Could also play well for Maalik.  Easy reads, quick throws, let the receivers work. 

My bigger concern is PK telling his defenders to avoid the middle of the field like their playing the-floor-is-lava game.  

I said on the Maalik thread I would love to buy a prop bet that Maalik’s first play is play action deep shot, because that just screams Sark 

[texastroubadour 1216]

1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

I said on the Maalik thread I would love to buy a prop bet that Maalik’s first play is play action deep shot, because that just screams Sark 

And then 2nd and 10

[WinningIsHard 4044]

3 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

 

That was a beautiful throw by sark. 

[lilMAC25 3795]

On 10/22/2023 at 7:56 AM, MotownHorn said:

My neighbors across the street are Mormons. No way we can lost to these clowns. I don't want to hear any awkwardly polite attempts at shit talk if we lose.

Have you tried shitting on their porch?

[darkfluid 29]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Last game played against Vandy was 1928 -- different times, my man. 

So we are talking A&M golden years….

[CashMcCoy 3199]

1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

He was dropped, because he completed 55% of his passes, 9TDs, and 4 ints as a Junior in the shortened Covid season. He followed that up with 63% comp, 22 TDs, and 9 ints as a senior. He rushed for 99 yards over those 16 games as a starter. Not exactly numbers that scream 5 star 

Well shit, with this in-depth analysis have you considered a job with On3?

[lemonandaturd 4285]

Maalik and the offense are going to let their nuts hang.  Maalik to Johntay Cook should happen.  

[CashMcCoy 3199]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

aggy

[Hermanator 7107]

1 hour ago, MIkeHoncho said:

Since the safest and most common assumption is that we are going to have a conservative, run-heavy game plan, I think it wold be awesome for Sark to come out with a Mike Leach game plan, with the wide splits on the OL and everything.  Could also play well for Maalik.  Easy reads, quick throws, let the receivers work. 

My bigger concern is PK telling his defenders to avoid the middle of the field like their playing the-floor-is-lava game.  

Having not only your backup QB who's throw about 10 passes in college and starting his first game but your entire offense come out and play a system they haven't practiced once their entire time in Austin would be a fireable offense. 

This isn't NCAA 2k

[Nicole44 22061]

28 -12 Texas wins. Magic underwear denied. 
 

[jinx 2635]

5 hours ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

Quinn suffered when he'd anticipate the pass rush, not set his feet, and throw a high school pass. I've not seen him run, but I don't see where Maalik would overly concern himself with a pass rusher.

After practice, the receivers need to stay late and turn the JUGS machine up to 11. Failing that, find an M40 recoilless rifle and practice with that.

He takes off running at the end of the spring game. Looks pretty fluid and like he would have liked the contact and chance at the TD. It’s at the very end of this video (8:07 left in the fourth)

 

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by jinx

[SuckitKevin 920]

1 hour ago, Hermanator said:

Their defense isn't shitty. They force a lot of turnovers. 

We just played the worst defenses in the conference and had almost 3 full quarters where we scored 3 points. Most of that was with Ewers. This isn't a team that can take any weak team for granted. 

Maalik will have to throw to win because we won't just run over them. I think I'd like to see Sark put his best run blocking line available out there with the plan to grind them up on the ground to set up heavy boxes for Maalik to throw against. 

They might cause some turnovers but they’re ranked 95 out of 130 teams in total defense. They’re shitty.

[Hermanator 7107]

40 minutes ago, SuckitKevin said:

They might cause some turnovers but they’re ranked 95 out of 130 teams in total defense. They’re shitty.

And yet Houston is ranked 110th and we have a backup QB and multiple OL injuries. 

This team isn't great enough to overlook anyone even when healthy, and definitely not right now. Every game is a toss up going forward with this many injuries.

[Hank_Hill 18877]

11 hours ago, immamac said:

This Maalik or a different one? 

Hahahahaha

[Cajun 11714]

3 hours ago, WinningIsHard said:

That was a beautiful throw by sark. 

F'n perfect.

[SuckitKevin 920]

9 hours ago, Hermanator said:

And yet Houston is ranked 110th and we have a backup QB and multiple OL injuries. 

This team isn't great enough to overlook anyone even when healthy, and definitely not right now. Every game is a toss up going forward with this many injuries.

I’m not sure where you got that I thought we should overlook BYU. My only point is that not allowing Malik to throw the ball much next week if he has to play K State too would not be smart. If this team has any hope to get back to the conference championship game, they’ll need a qb who can throw the ball against good teams. This doesn’t change the fact that Houston and BYU both have shitty defenses. We just happened to get a lot of players injured and played shitty ourselves.

[Codaxx 5762]

10 hours ago, CashMcCoy said:

Well shit, with this in-depth analysis have you considered a job with On3?

as opposed to the he plays for Texas, so he is an under-rated dual threat take? 

[CashMcCoy 3199]

1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

as opposed to the he plays for Texas, so he is an under-rated dual threat take? 

Please point out where I even called him underrated or a fucking dual threat lol. All I said is it was a terrible time for scouting and HS football in California, and laughed at a guy who already flamed out of OU who was rated much higher. I actually think a top 200 composite ranking is a pretty good spot for a project such as Maalik, but wouldn’t fault anyone who thinks his ceiling is much higher or lower than that. The good thing is that his recruiting ranking has nothing to do with how he will play going forward, so who gives a shit. Yes, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as a Texas fan until proven otherwise. Congrats on not being a homer though - you are so, so strong.

Edited October 24, 2023 by CashMcCoy

[Hookem2147 21335]

 

[Codaxx 5762]

22 minutes ago, CashMcCoy said:

Please point out where I even called him underrated or a fucking dual threat lol. All I said is it was a terrible time for scouting and HS football in California, and laughed at a guy who already flamed out of OU who was rated much higher. I actually think a top 200 composite ranking is a pretty good spot for a project such as Maalik, but wouldn’t fault anyone who thinks his ceiling is much higher or lower than that. The good thing is that his recruiting ranking has nothing to do with how he will play going forward, so who gives a shit. Yes, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as a Texas fan until proven otherwise. Congrats on not being a homer though - you are so, so strong.

I am rooting for Maalik, but that doesnt mean I need to make shit up. If adding some factual information to the conversation upsets you, I apologize. People are in here pretending Maalik was done wrong by the rating agencies, but ignoring he completed less than 60% of his HS passes. 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Codaxx

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

1 minute ago, Hookem2147 said:

 

Wonder how his formula works with regards to an injury like Quinn

[Hard Times 302]

9 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Wonder how his formula works with regards to an injury like Quinn

Depends on the gap between Quinn and Maalik, and right now all we can do is speculate and hope for the best.

[Hookem2147 21335]

11 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Wonder how his formula works with regards to an injury like Quinn

Believe he has said in the past that injuries aren't included in those projections.

Makes sense considering college teams don't have to release injury reports. Would be impossible to track for 132 teams.

[JBJ 3655]

21 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Can one of you defensive dweebs go look at Houston’s defensive alignment, because supposedly they switched to a 3-3-5 in the second quarter, shutting down the offense. And apparently Sark has consistently struggled with this defense, causing a lot of the issues they’ve had. 

On3 is correct in that our offense/Quinn have struggled against it (along with every other spread team).  But it's not something that teams switch to and suddenly shut us down, that's media narrative exaggeration. UH played a 3-safety 3-3-5 (3-3-3 or 3x3) throughout the entire game.  Here's our first offensive snap:

 

It's pretty much a defense designed to counter the modern spread RPO and zone read.

[Hookem2147 21335]

2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

On3 is correct in that our offense/Quinn have struggled against it (along with every other spread team).  But it's not something that teams switch to and suddenly shut us down, that's media narrative exaggeration. UH played a 3-safety 3-3-5 (3-3-3 or 3x3) throughout the entire game.  Here's our first offensive snap:

 

It's pretty much a defense designed to counter the modern spread RPO and zone read.

Yeah, Sark even said in the presser yesterday that they came out in it from the first snap. It wasn't like it was a switch after we got up 21-0.

[Vertigo 20290]

29 minutes ago, JBJ said:

On3 is correct in that our offense/Quinn have struggled against it (along with every other spread team).  But it's not something that teams switch to and suddenly shut us down, that's media narrative exaggeration. UH played a 3-safety 3-3-5 (3-3-3 or 3x3) throughout the entire game.  Here's our first offensive snap:

 

It's pretty much a defense designed to counter the modern spread RPO and zone read.

All I see in this screenshot is RUN LEFT!

[JBJ 3655]

33 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

All I see in this screenshot is RUN LEFT!

Yeah, that's how they get you.

[Fud 9552]

13 hours ago, SuckitKevin said:

They might cause some turnovers but they’re ranked 95 out of 130 teams in total defense. They’re shitty.

They're #28 in ESPN's defensive efficiency metric. Teams rack up counting stats against them though because their offense sucks and the defense is always on the field; BYU has one of the worst time of possessions in the country. That metric is supposed to account for competition, but it's possible if not likely that it's not completely adjusting for how bad the offenses they've played are. 

I wouldn't necessarily call it a good defense, but it's definitely not "shitty" 

[Codaxx 5762]

15 minutes ago, Fud said:

They're #28 in ESPN's defensive efficiency metric. Teams rack up counting stats against them though because their offense sucks and the defense is always on the field; BYU has one of the worst time of possessions in the country. That metric is supposed to account for competition, but it's possible if not likely that it's not completely adjusting for how bad the offenses they've played are. 

I wouldn't necessarily call it a good defense, but it's definitely not "shitty" 

They are 5th in the country in turnovers gained. 36th in yards per play allowed. 39th in pts per drive. DFEI (adjusted) has them at 65th.. 

[TexasFan21 1275]

2 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Believe he has said in the past that injuries aren't included in those projections.

Makes sense considering college teams don't have to release injury reports. Would be impossible to track for 132 teams.

 

[John Coctostan 592]

3 minutes ago, TexasFan21 said:

 

My nagging senses always involve Texas losing.

[South Austin 52519]

13 minutes ago, John Coctostan said:

My nagging senses always involve Texas losing.

Don't be a Scotch-Romanian pussy.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 3023]

3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Wonder how his formula works with regards to an injury like Quinn

I heard it was priced in.

[texifornia 56997]

 

[MIkeHoncho 1922]

15 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Having not only your backup QB who's throw about 10 passes in college and starting his first game but your entire offense come out and play a system they haven't practiced once their entire time in Austin would be a fireable offense. 

 

counter argument - sunny fucking cumbie put up video game numbers in that offense.  can't be that difficult.  MM catch the snap, short throw to first read, receiver catch and out athlete BYU on the edge.  Profit and take their women.  

[Hookem2147 21335]

 

[Fud 9552]

5 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

 

This is similar to how scoring/offensive EPA is down in the NFL as more defenses play the "Fangio Defense" (which is similar to what Texas does)

[Fud 9552]

1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

They are 5th in the country in turnovers gained. 36th in yards per play allowed. 39th in pts per drive. DFEI (adjusted) has them at 65th.. 

The difference is FEI takes data from previous seasons and likely uses recruiting/transfer data similar to FPI/SP+, while the others are base solely on what's happened on the field this year 

[ClubWhatever 12144]

The teams that consistently see the 3 high in practice do better against it than other shit.  Shocker.  This would be the week to roll it out if it was even in our playbook, which it ain't.  Does BYU run it?

[Codaxx 5762]

6 minutes ago, Fud said:

The difference is FEI takes data from previous seasons and likely uses recruiting/transfer data similar to FPI/SP+, while the others are base solely on what's happened on the field this year 

The others are non-adjusted, I believe that at this point in the season FEI is not longer using 5 year historical, returning production, and Recruiting rankings They use those in  the pre-season rankings, but I am not sure exactly when they completely throw those out of the equation. 

[Hookem2147 21335]

21 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

The teams that consistently see the 3 high in practice do better against it than other shit.  Shocker.  This would be the week to roll it out if it was even in our playbook, which it ain't.  Does BYU run it?

No. And I would be surprised if BYU even tried to run it considering the injuries they’ve had in the secondary. They were down to like their 4th string safeties.

[Fud 9552]

8 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

The others are non-adjusted, I believe that at this point in the season FEI is not longer using 5 year historical, returning production, and Recruiting rankings They use those in  the pre-season rankings, but I am not sure exactly when they completely throw those out of the equation. 

Assuming it's similar to SP+, previous season's data never gets completely filtered out

ESPN's defensive efficiency metric is adjusted, fwiw, although I'm not sure it capture show bad some of the QBs they've faced are 

[Codaxx 5762]

10 minutes ago, Fud said:

Assuming it's similar to SP+, previous season's data never gets completely filtered out

ESPN's defensive efficiency metric is adjusted, fwiw, although I'm not sure it capture show bad some of the QBs they've faced are 

I am pretty sure FEI filters that out by the end of the season. I am not sure exactly when they do that. None of them account for injuries, that i know of

[Fud 9552]

15 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I am pretty sure FEI filters that out by the end of the season. I am not sure exactly when they do that. None of them account for injuries, that i know of

It looks like FEI is still using some preseason data

 

[BurntOrangeBlooded15 1566]

On 10/23/2023 at 1:30 PM, trythisathome said:

FTFY

This took a lot longer to get posted than I figured.  

[gmr548 16580]

So, two examples of 5* that played as JAG+ here.  Development?  Or bad eval?

Cook was pretty good in 2021-22. Whatever Orlando was asking of him wasn’t working but he was pretty effective as a nickel/safety under PK.

If there’s any chance Malik will need to play against K State, you better let him throw against this shitty defense. He’ll have to throw against K State at a decent level to win.

This. Obviously you lean on the run game a bit more than normal but you have to run the full offense. And frankly Sark clearly curtailed the vertical elements of the offense this year given Ewers’s struggles in that department. If anything my worry is he’s going to get deep shot happy with a new QB with a big arm.