Houston Astros off-season thread

[UTexasFight 9,428]

18 minutes ago, Welch said:

Dusty Baker partially blames 'bloggers and tweeters' for retirement: 'Tired of the scrutiny'

If he also meant to include “message board posters”, I’m proud to have done my part.

 

Quote

"Every year's different. There was a whole bunch of criticism from 30-year-olds and bloggers and tweeters that I'm not doing this and I don't know that and I told my wife, 'You know, I'm kind of tired of this and tired of the scrutiny and if I could go manage and show up at say 6:30 for a 7 o'clock game and leave 30 minutes after the game, don't do the (pregame and postgame interviews), I could manage for another four or five years.' You know what I mean? After a while, you just get tired of answering questions."

Good lord.

yeah, I’d never want to hang ‘em up either if I only had to work 4 hours a day. You know what I mean?

Edited November 3, 2023 by UTexasFight

[WBT 20,561]

1 minute ago, UTexasFight said:

 

Good lord.

yeah, I’d never want to hang ‘em up either if I only had to work 4 hours a day. 

I'm thinking of putting that in my EDP actually

[The Dog 44,019]

3 hours ago, Constant said:

(i know there's a thread for this but this Oklahoma aggression will not go unchallenged)

Edited November 3, 2023 by The Dog

[Scraps 13,560]

Don't do stupid shit over and over and you won't be asked stupid questions over and over. 

[Guadaloopy 10,959]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

How, pray tell, do the Astros "cut losses" here?  Dumbass.

[Frank Drebin 5,655]

21 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

 

Good lord.

yeah, I’d never want to hang ‘em up either if I only had to work 4 hours a day. You know what I mean?

[tx 3 putt 76,870]

He better be a starter for that money 

[WBT 20,561]

Cubans with names starting with Y are our market inefficiency 

[Ichabod 184]

Spoke to my buddy awhile the other day about everything offseason.

 

Me - ”Any rumors to Brad Ausmus”?

Him - “I hope not. Everything I’ve heard is he’s anti-analytics and isn’t suited to the job. Sounds like we’d continue going in reverse.” “We were shocked last season when he was mentioned as a GM candidate.”

 

Me - “What are your personal top 5 choices then”?

Him - “AJ Hinch, Omar Lopez, Mark Kotsay, Rodney Linares, Joe Espada” “any rumors to Showalter, Maddon, Bannister, Ausmus, Washington or Counsell are just fabricated to create noise”

 

Me - “Whatever Bagwell wants Bagwell gets”

Him - “The perception of the public that Bagwell is calling the shots is extremely overshot. He’s around and Jim definitely likes him and listens. But in no way is he the shot caller. Baggy is awesome with us downstairs. I enjoy talking with him every time he comes down
He does exactly what his title says, advises/gives his opinion. But at the end of the day, Jim and Dana make final shot calls. 

He gets aired out for Abreu, Montero, and Brantley signings when that was actually all Jim. 

Jim was outbidding himself on Abreu.

Montero’s agent took Jim to cleaners.

Brantley deal was negotiated at Jim’s golf course in Florida.

Ever since cheating scandal, Jim has wanted to be more hands on so he doesn’t get burned by not knowing things. Which has had pros but definitely cons as well. I compare what he’s doing to Jerry Jones a lot, not in a good way“

“He’s gotta trust his baseball guys though. He wants to win consistently but stuff like outbidding yourself on Abreu and overpaying Montero is gonna hurt these next two off seasons. Because between the two of them there’s roughly $8M annually we could have saved and spent on someone else. That’s Neris money we don’t have or for anyone else we wanna go after”

[Ichabod 184]

Here’s his managerial breakdowns 

Personal Top Choices for Manager:

1) AJ Hinch—Not much has to be said here. Could step back in immediately and control all aspects of clubhouse. Just the absolute best at what he does. If he’s available, there’s literally no other option for the job. Under contract with Tigers for 5 years but if we called the Tigers you never know, we could possibly work something out. According to my sources, Crane wanted to talk to AJ about the GM position last offseason so bringing him back is on the table.

2) Omar Lopez—Long shot for sure, would be unheard of for them to jump Espada to go to Omar but has most manager experience of any coach on staff. Between minors and coaching WBC team very well, he’d have an extreme rapport with the team.

3) Mark Kotsay—My top choice for the job back in 2020. Bruce Bochy told us then that he wasn’t interested in coaching again quite yet that we should interview Kotsay and we did. Crane himself told me he loved Kotsay then and wanted to hire him but others in the process believed with the scandal coming out they needed someone like Dusty to run the team thru that time. Only one more year under deal with A’s so wouldn’t shock me if A’s allowed him to interview.

4) Rodney Linares—Bench coach for Rays, until 2018 was a lifelong Astros staff member. His father has worked for us for 25-30+ years. He was an amazing manager in minors who helped shaped every single one of the Astros “core” players in their development. Also coached Dominican Republic WBC team. Having been with Rays, is big in analytics and their front office is cutting edge in a lot of things.

5) Joe Espada—The clear cut easiest choice out there as he’s been with the team as bench coach since 2018. Knows the team and organization well. Downfall to me is he’s interviewed for many manager jobs over the years and has yet to be offered one. Begs question as to what’s wrong with him because coming from a successful organization like ours teams should be tripping over themselves outbidding for him. He can also be a bit high maintenance and diva like sometimes (thanks to previous time with the Yankees). 

 

[uoftorange 1,386]

I've been saying that about Bagwell all along.  No one I know that has any intimate knowledge of the Astros thinks he's even close to "in charge" or a "decision maker".  He's an adviser, and frankly is not as anti analytics as people try and act like he is.  

And that's exactly my Espada concern.  I think he'll be fine.  My guess is that teams felt his heart wasn't in losing the opportunity to take over for Dusty.  But that's just a hunch and hope.  

[Scraps 13,560]

Here’s his managerial breakdowns 
Personal Top Choices for Manager:
1) AJ Hinch— and control all aspects of clubhouse.

[Rockethorn1978 6,072]

I don’t want hinch. 

[tx 3 putt 76,870]

Hinch has two more years left on his Tigers contract, just a fyi 

[Guest]

Hinch is not the best at what he does at anything.

WTF????

When he left, there were absolutely rifts within the clubhouse, and justifiably so.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,188]

23 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Do we?  
relievers are volatile. You have Presley and Abreu locking down the back end. Montero and Graveman have done it before and could again. 

Graveman needs to pack his shit and fuck off. 

[tx 3 putt 76,870]

 

[Guest]

Dusty tells old stories about Bob Gibson, Hank Aaron, and players being tough on the field; and then gets run off by 30 YO punks who never set foot in the arena as a player.

That shit doesn't add up, but on the other hand, good job, writer dorks.

Does he realize what a bitch he sounds like?  At a certain point, it's like taking the car keys from some of these guys.  Life does go on... get busy living it.

Edited November 4, 2023 by slorch

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

1 minute ago, slorch said:

Dusty tells old stories about Bob Gibson, Hank Aaron, and players being tough on the field; and then gets run off by 30 YO punks who never set foot in the arena as a player.

That shit doesn't add up, but on the other hand, good job, writer dorks.

When dusty says blogs I hear podcasters and figure I did Gods work. 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[Gut Wagon 8,065]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

When dusty says blogs I hear podcasters and figure I did Gods work. 

I heartily congratulate you guys and your ilk. Mission accomplished. 

[UTPhil2006 3,805]

Reds declined option on Votto for ‘24. Player manager?

[tx 3 putt 76,870]

Capt Obvious …

 

[Pimphand 5,733]

On 10/31/2023 at 10:08 PM, runthebone said:

Not being in the WS is frustrating as shit. 

Helps to not have a total dumbass manager go against the GOAT manager. #decidedschematicdisadvantage

[Pimphand 5,733]

4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

When dusty says blogs I hear podcasters and figure I did Gods work. 

And we celebrate your entire catalog all the way back to 2000 Starlight Lounge and the resultant flat tire changing episode with the Mike Martz of DFW homeless.

[Pimphand 5,733]

17 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Hinch has two more years left on his Tigers contract, just a fyi 

Eat shit and fuck off. I will go to preseason Tigers game and sit next to Hinch and tell him what an absolute clown he was for fucking 2019 up.

Please stop being insane.

[Guadaloopy 10,959]

4 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Eat shit and fuck off. I will go to preseason Tigers game and sit next to Hinch and tell him what an absolute clown he was for fucking 2019 up.

Please stop being insane.

Counterpoint.  He did not fuck up 2019.  Howie Kendrick put an incredible swing on a great pitch.  Sometimes you just have to tip your cap.  

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Counterpoint.  He did not fuck up 2019.  Howie Kendrick put an incredible swing on a great pitch.  Sometimes you just have to tip your cap.  

Mr Cole should have closed it out for Houston.  Hinch absolutely choked on the bit.

[The Dog 44,019]

Bookmark this, here is the Astros salary for 2024 per FanGraphs.

CBT space at the bottom

Guaranteed Salaries (AAV):
-Justin Verlander: $40,555,555
-Jose Altuve: $23,357,143
-Alex Bregman: $20,000,000
-Jose Abreu: $19,500,000
-Yordan Alvarez: $19,166,667
-Lance McCullers Jr: $17,000,000
-Ryan Pressly: $15,000,000
-Cristian Javier: $12,800,000
-Rafael Montero: $11,500,000
-Kendall Graveman: $8,000,000
-Hector Neris Buyout: $1,000,000

Total: $186,879,365

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated):
-Kyle Tucker: $12,600,000
-Framber Valdez: $12,100,000
-Jose Urquidy: $3,500,000
-Chas McCormick: $3,100,000
-Mauricio Dubon: $3,100,000
-Luis Garcia: $2,100,000
-Bryan Abreu: $2,000,000

Total: $38,500,000

Pre-arbitration Players:
-Jake Meyers, Jeremy Peña, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, JP France, etc.: $11,840,000

Payroll for 2024 (Scroll down for CBT): 
-211,609,365
(Subtract $26,250,000 towards JV from the Mets in 2024)

Other Costs:
-Estimated salaries for 40-man minor leaguers: $2.5M
-Player benefits: $17,000,000
-League pre-arbitration bonus: $1,666,667

Total Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll: 
-$232,776,032

CBT Threshold: $237M

The Astros are $4,223,968 under the CBT!!!

Houston has 4.2M to spend on relievers and Diaz's backup if Jim Crane wants to stay under the Luxury Tax. 

Guess what.. he does want to stay under.

[Scraps 13,560]

Trade Urquidy and Montero and we free up 15M

[Rockethorn1978 6,072]

I’m sure we will make some trades. Or we should.  

[tx 3 putt 76,870]

Maybe Abreu and Montero play up to their contracts. 
 

not sure why we traded for graveman

 

Edited November 5, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[Texas St. Armadillos 1,381]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:27 PM, Ichabod said:

Spoke to my buddy awhile the other day about everything offseason.

 

Me - ”Any rumors to Brad Ausmus”?

Him - “I hope not. Everything I’ve heard is he’s anti-analytics and isn’t suited to the job. Sounds like we’d continue going in reverse.” “We were shocked last season when he was mentioned as a GM candidate.”

 

Me - “What are your personal top 5 choices then”?

Him - “AJ Hinch, Omar Lopez, Mark Kotsay, Rodney Linares, Joe Espada” “any rumors to Showalter, Maddon, Bannister, Ausmus, Washington or Counsell are just fabricated to create noise”

 

Me - “Whatever Bagwell wants Bagwell gets”

Him - “The perception of the public that Bagwell is calling the shots is extremely overshot. He’s around and Jim definitely likes him and listens. But in no way is he the shot caller. Baggy is awesome with us downstairs. I enjoy talking with him every time he comes down
He does exactly what his title says, advises/gives his opinion. But at the end of the day, Jim and Dana make final shot calls. 

He gets aired out for Abreu, Montero, and Brantley signings when that was actually all Jim. 

Jim was outbidding himself on Abreu.

Montero’s agent took Jim to cleaners.

Brantley deal was negotiated at Jim’s golf course in Florida.

Ever since cheating scandal, Jim has wanted to be more hands on so he doesn’t get burned by not knowing things. Which has had pros but definitely cons as well. I compare what he’s doing to Jerry Jones a lot, not in a good way“

“He’s gotta trust his baseball guys though. He wants to win consistently but stuff like outbidding yourself on Abreu and overpaying Montero is gonna hurt these next two off seasons. Because between the two of them there’s roughly $8M annually we could have saved and spent on someone else. That’s Neris money we don’t have or for anyone else we wanna go after”

You bet.

[kevwun 15,764]

So we didn’t have to throw stanek and montero in important situations in the playoffs.  Then he went and got hurt

[David Dennison 18,849]

2 hours ago, Scraps said:

Trade Urquidy and Montero and we free up 15M

Yeah, who's taking Montero?

[TejasPedro 1,857]

On 11/3/2023 at 3:46 PM, Welch said:

Dusty Baker partially blames 'bloggers and tweeters' for retirement: 'Tired of the scrutiny'

 

I guess we’ll never know

[tx 3 putt 76,870]

I need to make it to cooperstown sooner or later …

 

[Scraps 13,560]

The day Altuve gets inducted

[Pimphand 5,733]

11 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

Counterpoint.  He did not fuck up 2019.  Howie Kendrick put an incredible swing on a great pitch.  Sometimes you just have to tip your cap.  

He took the clearly superior team and choked on applesauce. You don't lose 4 games at home unless you totally fucking suck.

See: 2023

[Planet Houston 4,930]

 

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

14 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Maybe Abreu and Montero play up to their contracts. 
 

not sure why we traded for graveman

 

Yeah they should have at least required the Sox to eat most of Graveman’s 2024 salary.  But at least Graveman’s contract is very close to being market value.

McCullers, Abreu, and Montero are a combined ~$25M underwater in 2024 AAV compared to their current value.  Crane is responsible for the latter 2 deals.  His dumb ass needs to pony up over the tax to make up for it.

[tx 3 putt 76,870]

10 hours ago, Scraps said:

The day Altuve gets inducted

I hope to be there for that

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

18 hours ago, The Dog said:

Bookmark this, here is the Astros salary for 2024 per FanGraphs.

CBT space at the bottom

Guaranteed Salaries (AAV):
-Justin Verlander: $40,555,555
-Jose Altuve: $23,357,143
-Alex Bregman: $20,000,000
-Jose Abreu: $19,500,000
-Yordan Alvarez: $19,166,667
-Lance McCullers Jr: $17,000,000
-Ryan Pressly: $15,000,000
-Cristian Javier: $12,800,000
-Rafael Montero: $11,500,000
-Kendall Graveman: $8,000,000
-Hector Neris Buyout: $1,000,000

Total: $186,879,365

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated):
-Kyle Tucker: $12,600,000
-Framber Valdez: $12,100,000
-Jose Urquidy: $3,500,000
-Chas McCormick: $3,100,000
-Mauricio Dubon: $3,100,000
-Luis Garcia: $2,100,000
-Bryan Abreu: $2,000,000

Total: $38,500,000

Pre-arbitration Players:
-Jake Meyers, Jeremy Peña, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, JP France, etc.: $11,840,000

Payroll for 2024 (Scroll down for CBT): 
-211,609,365
(Subtract $26,250,000 towards JV from the Mets in 2024)

Other Costs:
-Estimated salaries for 40-man minor leaguers: $2.5M
-Player benefits: $17,000,000
-League pre-arbitration bonus: $1,666,667

Total Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll: 
-$232,776,032

CBT Threshold: $237M

The Astros are $4,223,968 under the CBT!!!

Houston has 4.2M to spend on relievers and Diaz's backup if Jim Crane wants to stay under the Luxury Tax. 

Guess what.. he does want to stay under.

Draft pick penalties don’t start in until a team goes $40M over the threshold.  Going over by $20M would cost Crane an extra $4M.  It’d be a pretty bitch move if Crane held up fielding the best team possible over $4M, especially when the team is so close to the limit because of his own ineptitude as acting GM last offseason

If they really are gonna stay under, then flipping Urquidy for a good pre-arb 8th inning guy and signing a 2nd tier free agent backup C is all we are likely to see, although it’s worth noting any extension for Altuve or Bregman could be structured to not impact this year’s CBT amounts.

[uoftorange 1,386]

22 hours ago, slorch said:

Mr Cole should have closed it out for Houston.  Hinch absolutely choked on the bit.

The narrative that exists on this is so silly and just factually doesn't take into account all the issues.

If anyone wants to say that Hinch should have left Grienke in, I'm all ears, but he had proven all year that wasn't the best idea, despite my belief that was still the answer.

But Cole coming in was not really a wise option for Hinch because there were tons of factors involved:

1.  Cole was on short rest
2.  Cole specifically said he did not want to come in mid inning
3.  Cole was a FA after the year, and the Astros did want to resign him.  So going against his wishes was a bad idea.  It was a horrible idea if they did it and he blew up.  
4.  Will Harris was absolute filthy that year.  And threw an absolutely perfect pitch, that somehow Kendrick connected on.  I doubt anyone can find a time all year that pitch was thrown that it wasn't a positive for the Astros.  He had a 0.00 era in the previous rounds.  And the same through the first 2 games he pitched.  He was tired, but he was still the best non-Cole option by a million miles.  

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, uoftorange said:

The narrative that exists on this is so silly and just factually doesn't take into account all the issues.

If anyone wants to say that Hinch should have left Grienke in, I'm all ears, but he had proven all year that wasn't the best idea, despite my belief that was still the answer.

But Cole coming in was not really a wise option for Hinch because there were tons of factors involved:

1.  Cole was on short rest
2.  Cole specifically said he did not want to come in mid inning
3.  Cole was a FA after the year, and the Astros did want to resign him.  So going against his wishes was a bad idea.  It was a horrible idea if they did it and he blew up.  
4.  Will Harris was absolute filthy that year.  And threw an absolutely perfect pitch, that somehow Kendrick connected on.  I doubt anyone can find a time all year that pitch was thrown that it wasn't a positive for the Astros.  He had a 0.00 era in the previous rounds.  And the same through the first 2 games he pitched.  He was tired, but he was still the best non-Cole option by a million miles.  

Bullshit. Cole should have absolutely closed the game. We know what ‘the book says.’   Lol.  Sticking to the script cost the Astros another ring, that we know with certainty. The best chance for winning was too scary for Hinch. 

[uoftorange 1,386]

3 minutes ago, slorch said:

Bullshit. Cole should have absolutely closed the game. We know what ‘the book says.’   Lol.  Sticking to the script cost the Astros another ring, that we know with certainty. The best chance for winning was too scary for Hinch. 

Seems like you didn't read anything I just wrote.  It absolutely wasn't as simple as that.  Why are you quoting "the book" I didn't say anything about the book.  In fact the book would say pitch Harris there.  What should have happened is Grienke stays in.  Cole was never, ever coming in there.  

[Dutchrudder 11,133]

Game 7 of 2019 was a 6-2 loss, not a 1 run game. The offense never got going, the team just wasn't stringing hits together in the same inning and they left a bunch of runners stranded. Harris came in and gave up the 2 run homer, and it was 3-2 going into the bottom of the 7th. That was all they needed to win. They scored in the 8th and 9th too, so not much you can do about it with only 2 runs scored.

Are people arguing that Cole coming in to relieve Greinke would have resulted in 2.2 scoreless innings with a 2-1 win? That seems like a stretch, but I guess it could happen. We just saw Bochy put in Montgomery in the middle of game 7 of the ALCS, and that worked out great for them, while our ace Verlander sat in the dugout as the bullpen failed. I don't know how often it happens, but it would be interesting to see stats on SPs that enter a game 7 in relief and how successful they are. 

[formermav43 4,606]

I would have thought Martin Maldonado behind the plate would have made any pitching decisions moot anyway.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, uoftorange said:

Seems like you didn't read anything I just wrote.  It absolutely wasn't as simple as that.  Why are you quoting "the book" I didn't say anything about the book.  In fact the book would say pitch Harris there.  What should have happened is Grienke stays in.  Cole was never, ever coming in there.  

Of course Hinch was saving Cole for Game 8.

Got it.

[Js1 85,275]

Gold Glove for Dubon 

[Guadaloopy 10,959]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Gold Glove for Dubon 

That’s awesome.  Glad they added the utility category.