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Houston Astros off-season thread

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Txslnghrns
Txslnghrns

Hey. Fuk you and fuk the astros.

Txslnghrns
Txslnghrns

Nope. Need help finding your pennant?

Txslnghrns
Txslnghrns

No. I think I’m on the right thread. Your off-season begins……now

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uoftorange

uoftorange 1386

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4 hours ago, slorch said:

Of course Hinch was saving Cole for Game 8.

Got it.

Jeebus man, it's called reading comprehension.  Just actually read what was written and you will understand what was stated.

Cole did NOT want to be in the game.  AJ knew that.  He was personally told. Cole told EVERYONE.  So putting a guy in whose head was not in it and was on short rest was a serious role of the dice.  Will Harris and his absolutely dominant season was not a role of the dice.  It was the odds on favorite best move.  Now not putting Cole in during the clean inning?  That's on AJ.  

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14 hours ago, uoftorange said:

Jeebus man, it's called reading comprehension.  Just actually read what was written and you will understand what was stated.

Cole did NOT want to be in the game.  AJ knew that.  He was personally told. Cole told EVERYONE.  So putting a guy in whose head was not in it and was on short rest was a serious role of the dice.  Will Harris and his absolutely dominant season was not a role of the dice.  It was the odds on favorite best move.  Now not putting Cole in during the clean inning?  That's on AJ.  

Your story and my recollection differ.  So does this article. They may have talked about it before the game, but Cole wasn't warming up just to fuck around.

https://fansided.com/2019/11/01/gerrit-cole-angry-game-7/#:~:text=“I was upset%2C and my,a tough pill to swallow.”

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uoftorange

uoftorange 1386

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1 hour ago, slorch said:

Your story and my recollection differ.  So does this article. They may have talked about it before the game, but Cole wasn't warming up just to fuck around.

https://fansided.com/2019/11/01/gerrit-cole-angry-game-7/#:~:text=“I was upset%2C and my,a tough pill to swallow.”

Seriously man, it's like it's willful at this point.  That article even said "Gerrit Cole and AJ Hinch had agreed on some rules for how he would be used in Game 7. He wasn’t coming in in the middle of the inning and wasn’t pitching if they didn’t have the lead. Cole warmed up on his own earlier in the game."

They agreed on the rules before the game.  Cole warmed himself up.  In case it's unclear, like it is in that article, those were the rules Cole put in place according to everyone I've ever heard from the Astros team and behind the scenes from the media guys I know.

The "writer" in that article graduated from Iowa State in 2019.  He's effectively a blogger.  And while I started and ran The Dream Shake for almost a decade, I totally get that some writers/bloggers have more access than others.  Sean had no access, he wasn't even on an Astros site at the time.  He's a Cubs fan and blogger.  Basically you quoted bleacher report here and a guy put an opinion out. It has been proven many times to be incorrect.  

The only person Cole has to be pissed at is himself.  Also, it was the wrong move and everyone would have lit AJ up if he did that and it failed.  He was on less than 2 days rest at that point.  That just about never goes well.  Your dominant lock them down reliever?  That usually goes okay.  It didn't this time.

Your narrative is incorrect.  
 

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uoftorange

uoftorange 1386

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13 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Who gives a shit about what rules you have going into the game, the situation dictated that Cole needed to come into the game.

Well Major League Managers care.  A lot actually.  And it's a business at the end of the day.  

I'm not saying I agree with it.  Not even a little bit.  At least not bringing him in the next inning.  And Greinke should have stayed in. But that's still what happened

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10971

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55 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

That’s what happens when you’re desperate. You give a guy with no skins on the wall 8 mill a year. This also happens if you hire a ausmus. Don’t hire a ausmus.

Even aggy thinks that is dumb.  The guy has to have at least one skin - even it is more attributable to a transcendent player - and the contract has got to be for at least 10 years.  And don't forget to have an extension with a 20% raise in the chamber ready to execute after only one good season.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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Ok so this is funny. Preparing for my POD today and as promised we said we were going to dork out on the math and try to calculate how many wins Dusty cost us last year. I did an hour and a half of spreadsheets and baseball reference and a bunch of other stuff and my number came out to 3.2 Games. I think it's probably higher than that b/c I made no attempt to play guys in more advantageous situations (like Meyers only against LHP, or Diaz never DH'ing), so I'd say the number was probably 4 games he cost us through lineup decisions.
Then, to check myself I just played Diaz at catcher 125 games and maldy at Catcher like 40, while also giving Chas back an extra 15 or 20 games Dusty took from him and benching Abreu so Diaz could get 20 games at 1b. Just those 2 simple decisions, pro rated out, added up to 3.1.
Then I looked at our Pythag vs our actual record and it was 93 wins v the 90 we actually had.
So, with even luck and optimal playing time the answer is 97 wins. This last years astros team, with the players available to it, and average luck should have probably won 97 games.
Will be interested in seeing Andrew's math on this. We will be doing a weekly throughout the offseason. 1st offseason one is look back at manager look ahead at managers we like or are looking at. #2 will be highs and lows and favorite parts of the year. After that it will just be whatever makes sense in light of events going on in the offseason- projecting out 2024 and then some talk about baseball movies. I love baseball movies.

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Js1

Js1 85342

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8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ok so this is funny. Preparing for my POD today and as promised we said we were going to dork out on the math and try to calculate how many wins Dusty cost us last year. I did an hour and a half of spreadsheets and baseball reference and a bunch of other stuff and my number came out to 3.2 Games. I think it's probably higher than that b/c I made no attempt to play guys in more advantageous situations (like Meyers only against LHP, or Diaz never DH'ing), so I'd say the number was probably 4 games he cost us through lineup decisions.
Then, to check myself I just played Diaz at catcher 125 games and maldy at Catcher like 40, while also giving Chas back an extra 15 or 20 games Dusty took from him and benching Abreu so Diaz could get 20 games at 1b. Just those 2 simple decisions, pro rated out, added up to 3.1.
Then I looked at our Pythag vs our actual record and it was 93 wins v the 90 we actually had.
So, with even luck and optimal playing time the answer is 97 wins. This last years astros team, with the players available to it, and average luck should have probably won 97 games.
Will be interested in seeing Andrew's math on this. We will be doing a weekly throughout the offseason. 1st offseason one is look back at manager look ahead at managers we like or are looking at. #2 will be highs and lows and favorite parts of the year. After that it will just be whatever makes sense in light of events going on in the offseason- projecting out 2024 and then some talk about baseball movies. I love baseball movies.

I mean, it is interesting.  But is it funny? It sounds rage inducing lol.

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Ichabod

Ichabod 184

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For the love of Orbit, please quit with this Cole coming in to pitch relief in Game 7 of the 2019 World Series. He got up from the bench, went through his warmup routine and then proceeded to throw 10 fastballs that completely missed the entire human being playing catcher. He then sat back down. He was never going to come in that game. Period. Move on from this. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, it is interesting.  But is it funny? It sounds rage inducing lol.

Nah. Well, maybe kind of sort of.   It's ok to arrive at the same answer from 2 different perspectives.  We didn't tell each other how we were going to think about the problem nor did we show our work afterwards so he might have gotten to the same place as me (or somewhere different) thinking about it a 3rd different way.  

7 minutes ago, Ichabod said:

For the love of Orbit, please quit with this Cole coming in to pitch relief in Game 7 of the 2019 World Series. He got up from the bench, went through his warmup routine and then proceeded to throw 10 fastballs that completely missed the entire human being playing catcher. He then sat back down. He was never going to come in that game. Period. Move on from this. 

Is that true? I never ever ever heard that. Where did you hear that from?

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11139

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ok so this is funny. Preparing for my POD today and as promised we said we were going to dork out on the math and try to calculate how many wins Dusty cost us last year. I did an hour and a half of spreadsheets and baseball reference and a bunch of other stuff and my number came out to 3.2 Games. I think it's probably higher than that b/c I made no attempt to play guys in more advantageous situations (like Meyers only against LHP, or Diaz never DH'ing), so I'd say the number was probably 4 games he cost us through lineup decisions.
Then, to check myself I just played Diaz at catcher 125 games and maldy at Catcher like 40, while also giving Chas back an extra 15 or 20 games Dusty took from him and benching Abreu so Diaz could get 20 games at 1b. Just those 2 simple decisions, pro rated out, added up to 3.1.
Then I looked at our Pythag vs our actual record and it was 93 wins v the 90 we actually had.
So, with even luck and optimal playing time the answer is 97 wins. This last years astros team, with the players available to it, and average luck should have probably won 97 games.
Will be interested in seeing Andrew's math on this. We will be doing a weekly throughout the offseason. 1st offseason one is look back at manager look ahead at managers we like or are looking at. #2 will be highs and lows and favorite parts of the year. After that it will just be whatever makes sense in light of events going on in the offseason- projecting out 2024 and then some talk about baseball movies. I love baseball movies.

Now do it with Diaz catching 162 games!

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8073

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I did no math and predicted 96 wins. I didn't think we'd win as often without JV, so that total seemed a reasonable guess. I assumed that minus the shift, both Alvarez and Tucker would easily hit over .300.  I really didn't factor in Altuve's injury or Maldy plummeting farther into the abyss. Then again, neither did I see such a good season from Dubon or a great catching prospect ascending out of nowhere. But the biggest thing I overlooked was how often Toothpick would run out an obviously weak lineup for no apparent reason. 

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Ichabod

Ichabod 184

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6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Nah. Well, maybe kind of sort of.   It's ok to arrive at the same answer from 2 different perspectives.  We didn't tell each other how we were going to think about the problem nor did we show our work afterwards so he might have gotten to the same place as me (or somewhere different) thinking about it a 3rd different way.  

Is that true? I never ever ever heard that. Where did you hear that from?

Evan Gattis

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