Houston Astros off-season thread

[Snake Diggity 4624]

54 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Who’s spot does a cheaper reliever take ?

we have plenty of arms 

If opening day were today, the pitching staff would consist of: Verlander, Valdez, Brown, Javier, Pressly, Abreu, Graveman, Montero, Urquidy, France, Bielak, Sousa, and Whitley.  Those last 3 names are question marks (and nothing changes if you sub in Dubin, Blanco, Ortega, Kuhnel, Gage, Mushinski, or Martinez).

I like Dubon and I doubt a scenario comes up where it makes sense to trade him.  But if a team offers a legit cheap controllable 8th inning RP option for him, there’s definitely room on the pitching staff to make that move.

[tx 3 putt 76957]

In the playoffs, how often have we relied on the last three arms in the BP ? At least one guy gets bumped from a starter to the BP 

we can swap out those last 3 arms as much as needed during the regular season. I have confidence in our pitching program that someone will step up

theres no reason to move assets until the trading deadline. Much better deals on July 31. Then you know what you need 

no one is trading a good 8th inning arm, under club control 

Edited November 15, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Dream scenario : 3 of the young guys step up. Montero comes out 🔥🔥🔥 we dump montero on someone in a Josh fields type deal 
 

*glass half empty - we need 3 young guys to step up the just replace stanek / maton / Nerris 

[kevwun 15788]

Well we're probably gonna lose 2 of the arms we did use in the playoffs and I wouldn't count on unproven young players and rookies on filling in for them.

[tx 3 putt 76957]

22 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Well we're probably gonna lose 2 of the arms we did use in the playoffs and I wouldn't count on unproven young players and rookies on filling in for them.

but do you need them day 1 ?

or let the young arms grow / show what the have and make a decision in late July needs 

 

I know the surly baseball experts will freak out if we’re not in first place from day 2 on, but waiting until the trade deadline gives us more flexibility 

 

it’ll be interesting to see what happens 

Edited November 15, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[kevwun 15788]

That costs prospects though.  I'd rather just sign a free agent arm or 2 now.

[formermav43 4606]

 

5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

but do you need them day 1 ?

or let the young arms grow / show what the have and make a decision in late July needs 

 

I know the surly baseball experts will freak out if we’re not in first place from day 2 on, but waiting until the trade deadline gives us more flexibility 

 

it’ll be interesting to see what happens 

It also usually costs more at the deadline. 

[LCHorn 2620]

I’ve said this before but the loss of high value prospect depth makes it all the more critical that the team add free agents-both to fill holes but also to make it possible to deal players like Dubon.  We need to create a surplus somewhere (relievers are probably the most fungible).  
 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

20 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I’ve said this before but the loss of high value prospect depth makes it all the more critical that the team add free agents-both to fill holes but also to make it possible to deal players like Dubon.  We need to create a surplus somewhere (relievers are probably the most fungible).  
 

we have a surplus of arms 

[Slacks 6821]

On 10/31/2023 at 11:05 AM, tx 3 putt said:

We need an inside person ….

 

@Ldogg53 this is your job to lose. 

[kevwun 15788]

28 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

we have a surplus of arms 

And a surplus of question marks to go along with them.

[LCHorn 2620]

48 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

we have a surplus of arms 

Not really.  We have 120 innings we need to replace between Neris and Maton.  We have 33 starts that were devoted to Bielack and France that ideally get replaced by someone better (I don't hate France like @Wulaw Horn hates, or hated, Maton but he was very, very lucky.  If that's repeatable I'd be shocked).  Garcia and McCullers can't really be dealt and are worth more to us than anyone else, anyway. 

Take a look at the pitching staff in Sugar Land--calling it hot garbage is actually generous.  Besides Blanco, there's no one that's poised to help in 2024, even to provide slightly below average innings.  Maybe someone from AA like Kouba can improve his velocity in short stints but do you really want to rely on that?

I don't know if he was actually as great as the analytics nerds considered him to be, but someone like Kevin Goldstein, who coordinated pro scouting, would be very useful right now; if we aren't going to have the budget for a Hader we really need some replacement level bodies that can shuttle back and forth between the majors and Sugar Land. 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

16 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Not really.  We have 120 innings we need to replace between Neris and Maton.  We have 33 starts that were devoted to Bielack and France that ideally get replaced by someone better (I don't hate France like @Wulaw Horn hates, or hated, Maton but he was very, very lucky.  If that's repeatable I'd be shocked).  Garcia and McCullers can't really be dealt and are worth more to us than anyone else, anyway. 

Take a look at the pitching staff in Sugar Land--calling it hot garbage is actually generous.  Besides Blanco, there's no one that's poised to help in 2024, even to provide slightly below average innings.  Maybe someone from AA like Kouba can improve his velocity in short stints but do you really want to rely on that?

I don't know if he was actually as great as the analytics nerds considered him to be, but someone like Kevin Goldstein, who coordinated pro scouting, would be very useful right now; if we aren't going to have the budget for a Hader we really need some replacement level bodies that can shuttle back and forth between the majors and Sugar Land. 

 

Maybe, maybe not, maybe go fuck yourself gif

Here is how I see the arms in the organization right now- glass half full (Need 1500 innings more or less)

Proven starters ready to go opening day (750 innings)

JV- Ace- probably want to limit him to 25 or 28 starts, Framber- ace adjacent- serious innings eater- 180-200, Javier- Ace possible- need to limit him to 130 innings, Brown- Possible #2 type starter based upon what we saw start of last year- limit to 140 innings, Urquidy- BOR innings guy with a little more upside if he performs well- figure on 125 innings you want out of him- tops.  

Reinforcements/minor leagues/guys maybe not as good as what you have coming but can fill in in a pinch- 250 innings

LMJ- if you get 50 innings out of him that's awesome

Garcia- if you get 50 innings out of him that's awesome

France- would hate to see him get more than about 12 -15 starts- pencil him in for 75 innings

Spaghetti- 75 innings- I'm fine with saying that he's probably going to be like France was last year (minus the luck maybe).  5 ERA. 

Proven Bullpen- 180 innings

Presley- 60 innings, Abreu- 60 innings, Graveman- 60 innings those are your leverage guys right now

Give them a chance until reinforcements get here- 210 innings

Whitley- 30 innings, Blanco, 30 innings, Bielak- 50 innings, Martinez- 50 innings, Souza- 50 innings

That's 1400 innings with nothing going well and all guys we have seen (other than Whitley and Spaghetti) at the big league level not shit themselves. You are only asking for 100 innings out of those 2 guys, not an unreasonable ask.  

I'm fine if we don't add anything and see what happens.  I don't have Montero in there- b/c I don't know what category to put him in.  Someone will get hurt. I left a LOT of room for the starters to throw more innings than they did- there's a lot of meat on that bone. Break camp with these 13 guys:

JV/Framber/Javier/Brown/Urquidy/France/Presley/Abreu/Graveman/Beilak/Whitley/Souza/Montero.  The last 4 aren't great- but hey- somebody has to pitch in the blowouts when you lose big or when you are winning big.  Maybe some or all of them can work their way into higher quality.  Whtley and Bielak start out up b/c they are out of options so try them in the mop of duty and see what you have. 

That leaves: Spaghetti, Blanco, Martinez in the minors waiting for a call and Lance and Garcia on the mend penciled in to return at the ASB.  If you have injuries or bad performance you can get an arm at the deadline.  
If someone wants to trade you something interesting for France then Spaghetti starts in his spot- he's tradeable and might actually bring back some value and he's probably not strictly necessary.  
I wouldn't mind moving on from France, Meyers and Dubon if you could get someone that was a good LHH outfielder for those guys, and a backup catcher- with a prospect or 2 sprinkled in.  Do that and you don't have to sign anyone in FA if you don't want to.  I'd rather they spend into the LT (it's such a minimal penalty up to 250M and Uncle Jimbo is minting money and this is our competitive window) on a guy like Hader (or better yet Snell) and ride them for a couple years and then trade them away if you need to go into rebuild mode- but it's not my money and I bet we don't do that.  

[LCHorn 2620]

26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

(or better yet Snell)

I prefer Nola over Snell if the $$ are the same (on this team, anyway).  Snell's walk rate terrifies me and Nola is more durable. 

Don't think we didn't all notice you sneaked in Whitley for 30 innings.  If he makes the majors I hope you quickly unload all those autographed cards you've been sitting on. 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

Just now, LCHorn said:

I prefer Nola over Snell if the $$ are the same (on this team, anyway).  Snell's walk rate terrifies me and Nola is more durable. 

Don't think we didn't all notice you sneaked in Whitley for 30 innings.  If he makes the majors I hope you quickly unload all those autographed cards you've been sitting on. 

If Whitley is out of options it doesn't make sense not to give him a try before those guys get back.  What's the worst that can happen with him pitching long relief in the bullpen?  He shits the bed on a game we were already going to lose and we worsen our run differential a little bit?  

[Ojo Rojo 1965]

When are LMJ and Garcia projected to come back?  ASB?

Looks like we are three relievers short right now.  Rather than give up prospects or a major leaguer to get those or sign anyone decent for big dollars, I'd probably start the season with who we have, wait on LMJ and Garcia to come back so we can move starters to the pen, hope Montero turns back into a carriage from a pumpkin and see if any of the other guys are going to be better than they have been.  If we need bullpen arms at the deadline, get them then.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

17 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

When are LMJ and Garcia projected to come back?  ASB?

Looks like we are three relievers short right now.  Rather than give up prospects or a major leaguer to get those or sign anyone decent for big dollars, I'd probably start the season with who we have, wait on LMJ and Garcia to come back so we can move starters to the pen, hope Montero turns back into a carriage from a pumpkin and see if any of the other guys are going to be better than they have been.  If we need bullpen arms at the deadline, get them then.

With how little we have to spend this makes all the sense in the world to me.

Yes- they are projected to be back around the ASB.  Maybe a little earlier if their rehab goes better than average. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

LMJ will be invited to throw out the first pitch in a mid May game and shred his elbow again. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Fudge Nuggets

[runthebone 7982]

You guys are so pessimistic.  Whitley is good for 275 innings because he doesn't have any wear and tear.  That's incredibly fortunate.

[Dutchrudder 11139]

Verlander needs to hit 140 innings to trigger his 2024 option, of which the Mets will pay half. We definitely want that to happen, as he's a bargain at 17.5m and it also fucks the Mets which is always funny. 140 innings is 28 starts with going to the 5th, or 24 starts averaging the 6th. Hopefully he's healthy and good for it, and we can win one more with him before he retires.  

[UTexasFight 9444]

1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

Verlander needs to hit 140 innings to trigger his 2024 option, of which the Mets will pay half. We definitely want that to happen, as he's a bargain at 17.5m and it also fucks the Mets which is always funny. 140 innings is 28 starts with going to the 5th, or 24 starts averaging the 6th. Hopefully he's healthy and good for it, and we can win one more with him before he retires.  

I get them but I hate contracts tied to a statistic(s).

what happens if the rangers lock up the west and he’s at 136 IP the last week of the season. We have him all lined to start game 1 WC…or we can try and get him through four in the last series of the season 

 

(of course it better not come to that. That shit better be all mapped out and he wears it in a bad outing or two early in Sept if it looks like we want him back in 2025 for 17.5M)

Edited November 16, 2023 by UTexasFight

[Dutchrudder 11139]

I don't know the specifics of the contract, but now that you mention it, do the 140 innings have to occur in the regular season?  Pitching another 20-30 in the postseason should probably count too, but I don't know what the specific language is.  Would be nice if postseason is included to give some leeway in the event he misses a few weeks for an injury. 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

7 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

I don't know the specifics of the contract, but now that you mention it, do the 140 innings have to occur in the regular season?  Pitching another 20-30 in the postseason should probably count too, but I don't know what the specific language is.  Would be nice if postseason is included to give some leeway in the event he misses a few weeks for an injury. 

All contact statistical incentives are regular season only. 

[Snake Diggity 4624]

Houston has 12 MLB caliber pitchers on their 40 man roster: Verlander, Valdez, Pressly, Abreu, Montero, Graveman, Javier, Brown, Urquidy, France, McCullers, and Garcia.  But there are some issues:

Garcia and McCullers are hurt but expected back between July 1 and Aug 31.

8 of those 12 are starters.  So if they keep the roster as it is then at least 2 guys are going to have to move into a bullpen role.  Not necessarily a bad thing but probably not ideal.  Houston might want to trade one of their SP for an elite RP if they can.

While all 12 guys certainly have a place on a big league roster, There are really only 2 sure-fire playoff-caliber SP (Valdez and Verlander) and 2 playoff-caliber high leverage relievers (Pressly and Abreu).  Houston might want to replace 2 of their questionable SP for 1 proven playoff caliber SP and/or 1 proven high leverage RP.

The free agent pitching market is very deep this year.  Some team is going to get a very good deal on a SP.  Houston might be able to take advantage of that situation.  I.e., if teams are all focused on Snell/Montgomery/Nola, a guy like Eduardo Rodriguez or Yariel Rodriguez might end up signing for far less than they’re worth and be a #2 guy for 4-5 years getting paid #4 salary.  I like the idea of Houston adding a SP because I think a playoff bullpen of Pressly, Abreu, McCullers, Brown, Garcia, Graveman, and Montero would be badass, with a playoff rotation of Verlander, Valdez, TBD, and Javier (with France and Urquidy available for emergency starts or multiple inning relief appearances).

[UTPhil2006 3807]

140 IP contract incentive is for triggering 2025 option (and Mets paying half) iirc 

Edited November 16, 2023 by UTPhil2006

[Scraps 13561]

Where the fuck is Toro? 

He is now in Oakland (soon to be Vegas) cause his ass just got traded there 

[TejasPedro 1858]

Is it wrong to want to see moves being made? After last offseason it was rough watching the season play out when most of us identified issues with last years offseason and spring that stick around all year, and please don’t bring up injuries that makes the GM look even weaker. Winners, win. The Mets and Dodgers make excuses.

[Snake Diggity 4624]

5 minutes ago, TejasPedro said:

Is it wrong to want to see moves being made? After last offseason it was rough watching the season play out when most of us identified issues with last years offseason and spring that stick around all year, and please don’t bring up injuries that makes the GM look even weaker. Winners, win. The Mets and Dodgers make excuses.

Yeah I think every fan wants their team to kick ass in the offseason.  Wanting and expecting are two different things.  
 

I am extremely confident that Brown will at a minimum address the 2 glaring weaknesses (backup C and at least 1 RP).  I also feel really good about an Altuve extension.  But whether we get more than that, who knows.  Crane has shown a willingness to make the big move; he approved payroll expansions for Verlander twice and demanded the GM acquire Greinke, so I don’t think any move should be marked as impossible.  There’s gonna be some major major moves this offseason; I think the White Sox will rebuild (which means Cease and Robert are gonna be traded) and Juan Soto is pretty much guaranteed to be traded.  There are also half a dozen ToR SP on the free agent market.  It wouldn’t shock me if Houston comes out of this offseason with an unexpected big move or two, but for now I’m setting my expectations on Victor Caratini and Matt Moore signings paired with an Altuve lifetime contract.

[runthebone 7982]

Every time someone posts we have plenty of arms, someone blows out an elbow.  Just saying.

[kevwun 15788]

And stop counting LMJ.

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Are there any starters / relievers coming off ‘bad’ years ?

Sign them cheap, we fix them and then flip for another Diaz or Yordan ?

[formermav43 4606]

Sure, that's a simple, straightforward plan. 🙄

[UTexasFight 9444]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 we fix them

Brent Strom isn’t walking through that door…

or maybe he’d consider it without Dusty here 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

11 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Brent Strom isn’t walking through that door…

or maybe he’d consider it without Dusty here 

he left behind a pitching program full of coaches be mentored. we’re fine 

Strom’s magic didn’t look to hot in the World Series. Curious who was making the calls on pitching changes because staff management was epic fail 

Edited November 16, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[TejasPedro 1858]

Anybody else hate the way Bochy walks, for fucks sake get the guy some better fitting poopy pants. I have experienced that walk, when you have a rager wanting out, and you start to get a little turtlehead who can’t wait to be birthed. You clinch and walk like Fred Sanford.

And yes I know, even with a fully loaded diaper he would kick my ass.

[UTPhil2006 3807]

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Meyers for Soto 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Maldy was so good, he didn’t need to work out 

 

 

[LCHorn 2620]

So ESPN headline is about a possible Trout to Philadelphia trade (it's pay-walled and likely not telling us anything we don't already know). 

Let's suggest that the Brown/Crane wanted to test the waters on this; Angels would be looking toward full rebuild and presumably would be offsetting some of that gargantuan contract.  Their main priorities would presumably be some combination of prospects and cost savings with a preference for the former. 

What might that trade look like on the Astros side?  How much money is coming back from the Angels?  If you think Tucker won't re-sign and want to obtain some cost certainty and extend the window a few years, would this be the right trade for him, for example, if the Angels offer $15M annually in cash coming back? 

I've been reading ya'll (and on clutchfans/crawford boxes) go back and forth on Bregman extensions and I think it might just be preferable to blow the doors off the budget in 2024 and 2025 and then submit to a shitty rebuild rather than try to reload while risking a longer period of mediocrity.  Giving Bregman $25M annually for the back half of his career while losing Valdez, Tucker, and Verlander just seems like such an enormous amount of WAR to replace. 

[The Dog 44051]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

So ESPN headline is about a possible Trout to Philadelphia trade (it's pay-walled and likely not telling us anything we don't already know). 

 

It's a total hypothetical. Not even worth copying and pasting.

Astros news:

 

[cabowabo 4484]

On 11/16/2023 at 11:02 AM, kevwun said:

And stop counting LMJ.

Fucker hasn't pitched in 2 years and he's still not expected back until after July 1?  What is with this guy?

[kevwun 15788]

Those HEB commercials are physically demanding and take a toll.

Edited November 17, 2023 by kevwun

[tx 3 putt 76957]

37 minutes ago, cabowabo said:

Fucker hasn't pitched in 2 years and he's still not expected back until after July 1?  What is with this guy?

he’ll be very well rested 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

he’ll be very well rested 

He'll be drawing a social security check.

[TonyTexas 10512]

I’ve never loved LMJ but this turned me off for good. But it turned me up on Altuve. 

 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

 

[Limp Brisket 546]

Culture so shitty in the Southside clubhouse they are blowing it up.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

6 hours ago, LCHorn said:

So ESPN headline is about a possible Trout to Philadelphia trade (it's pay-walled and likely not telling us anything we don't already know). 

Let's suggest that the Brown/Crane wanted to test the waters on this; Angels would be looking toward full rebuild and presumably would be offsetting some of that gargantuan contract.  Their main priorities would presumably be some combination of prospects and cost savings with a preference for the former. 

What might that trade look like on the Astros side?  How much money is coming back from the Angels?  If you think Tucker won't re-sign and want to obtain some cost certainty and extend the window a few years, would this be the right trade for him, for example, if the Angels offer $15M annually in cash coming back? 

I've been reading ya'll (and on clutchfans/crawford boxes) go back and forth on Bregman extensions and I think it might just be preferable to blow the doors off the budget in 2024 and 2025 and then submit to a shitty rebuild rather than try to reload while risking a longer period of mediocrity.  Giving Bregman $25M annually for the back half of his career while losing Valdez, Tucker, and Verlander just seems like such an enormous amount of WAR to replace. 

Trout to the Astros makes a ton of sense for us. If I’m the angels I’d basically trade him for a bag of balls and salary relief, but that’s probably not the way they will go. 

Trout is on a 7/250M deal right now (35.5M per year). 

1.8/6.3/2.9 war 21/22/23.   That’s obviously not performance based that’s playing time based, but that’s real. That’s 11 WAR (3.6 per season) or dead bang on no surplus value. It’s risky to give up any serious value for him- could be a fiasco. 
I think my offer would be something like

Spaghetti and their 2 favorite OF for trout with no money coming back. crane wouldn’t likely do that. 

Trout plus 100M for Chas or Meyers and Brown.  
 

angels have zero interest in either of those deals I’m sure  We aren’t a good trade partner.  

 

[tx 3 putt 76957]

Put up or shut up