Houston Astros off-season thread

[wood 11225]

So the CBT is effectively meaningless and toothless, correct?

[WBT 20571]

Most owners use it as an excuse to halt spending and take more profit

[formermav43 4606]

3 hours ago, wood said:

So the CBT is effectively meaningless and toothless, correct?

Well he’s still going to count about $46 million a year against it, which is a massive amount, the most ever. And this deal requires pretty much the perfect storm of a guy who makes enough in endorsements and wants to win badly enough that he’s willing to defer almost his entire salary to get it down even to that number.

But it’s definitely pushing the limits of it, yeah. I would expect this sort of contract to be addressed in the next CBA. Maybe put a limit on the percentage of total salary you can defer? I don’t know.

[n64ra 1082]

Finally Ohtani won't be in the way of AL MVP.

[wood 11225]

7 hours ago, formermav43 said:

Well he’s still going to count about $46 million a year against it, which is a massive amount, the most ever. And this deal requires pretty much the perfect storm of a guy who makes enough in endorsements and wants to win badly enough that he’s willing to defer almost his entire salary to get it down even to that number.

But it’s definitely pushing the limits of it, yeah. I would expect this sort of contract to be addressed in the next CBA. Maybe put a limit on the percentage of total salary you can defer? I don’t know.

Oh, ok. Cool. I'd heard something very different. This makes a lot more sense.  Good!

Re: that last line, yep. Or let them defer as much as they want to, but they have to count even more or all of it under the cap.

Edited December 12, 2023 by wood

[tx 3 putt 76956]

How long before other teams copy this idea ?

[kevwun 15788]

They have until 2026 to do it because it's gonna get shutdown by the next CBA.

[Dutchrudder 11139]

Sooooooooo, what's the realistic Altuve extension going to look like, and how much of it should be deferred?  Cause that has to happen this offseason, and spreading out the cash owed during the "down" years in the future seems pretty smart to me.

Altuve at 5 for 120 with 60m deferred?  Spread out those payments from 2029-2034 and drop his AAV down to about 15m. 

Then for Bregman, how about 8 for 220 with 120m deferred?  Why not? I mean, he's a good player and worth it. You know he probably wants to stay here if he can get paid. Drop his AAV down to 20m and roll with it. The team has plenty of talent to keep making the playoffs at the very least. Grab a few free agents in 25 and keep the ball rolling!  If it ends up bankrupting Crane and he's forced to sell the team, well then sucks to be him but it's a risk I'm willing to take. Might as well use this tool while it's available. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Dutchrudder

[Snake Diggity 4624]

People are blowing the impact of potential deferrals way out of proportion.  The net effect of the Ohtani situation is that he signed a $460M/10yr contract; it’s not like he gave the Dodgers a discount or won’t have a huge impact on their CBT amount.  Houston may utilize some deferrals in an Altuve extension but it’s not a magic pill to get players to take a big discount or dramatically circumvent the CBT.  In Altuve’s case I think a more effective/likely tool is to structure his extension with an extra year on it with a significant buyout so the amount gets spread over a longer period, lowering the CBT AAV.  If Altuve says he wants to play thru age 39 and asks for $150M/5yrs, give him $155M/6yrs with the last year being a player option with his choice of a buyout.  
 

Bregman is not going to take a discount, whether thru deferrals or otherwise.  With a year to his standard he will command $200M+ easy.  Houston is not extending or re-signing him.

[Dutchrudder 11139]

18 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

People are blowing the impact of potential deferrals way out of proportion.  The net effect of the Ohtani situation is that he signed a $460M/10yr contract; it’s not like he gave the Dodgers a discount or won’t have a huge impact on their CBT amount.  Houston may utilize some deferrals in an Altuve extension but it’s not a magic pill to get players to take a big discount or dramatically circumvent the CBT.  In Altuve’s case I think a more effective/likely tool is to structure his extension with an extra year on it with a significant buyout so the amount gets spread over a longer period, lowering the CBT AAV.  If Altuve says he wants to play thru age 39 and asks for $150M/5yrs, give him $155M/6yrs with the last year being a player option with his choice of a buyout.  
 

Bregman is not going to take a discount, whether thru deferrals or otherwise.  With a year to his standard he will command $200M+ easy.  Houston is not extending or re-signing him.

Ohtani was going to get north of 600+ million over 10 years. 700m was not out of the question either. They get to pay him 700m in total, while only taking 480m of that in CBT, and I think that's pretty significant.  That's a huge break with a 32% discount on his value, which is unheard of in deferral deals. In the past 15% was about the max teams were saving in what counted against the tax, without going insanely overboard like the Dodgers did here. I'm suggesting the Astros take advantage of it before that loophole goes away, or is amended with something sensible like "only 25% of the total contract can be deferred."

If you know you want to pay a guy like Altuve, who absolutely deserves it, why not give him a little more, and spread it out over the 2030s when revenues will be significantly higher?  It's not like he needs the money, he's earned 160 million+ in the past few years, so sustained income and keeping the team competitive may be worth it to him. He's a team guy, I'm sure he would be interested. Saving 20% on his annual tax hit would allow for more flexibility while the team is still a contender. 

[Snake Diggity 4624]

36 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Ohtani was going to get north of 600+ million over 10 years. 700m was not out of the question either. They get to pay him 700m in total, while only taking 480m of that in CBT, and I think that's pretty significant.  That's a huge break with a 32% discount on his value, which is unheard of in deferral deals. In the past 15% was about the max teams were saving in what counted against the tax, without going insanely overboard like the Dodgers did here. I'm suggesting the Astros take advantage of it before that loophole goes away, or is amended with something sensible like "only 25% of the total contract can be deferred."

If you know you want to pay a guy like Altuve, who absolutely deserves it, why not give him a little more, and spread it out over the 2030s when revenues will be significantly higher?  It's not like he needs the money, he's earned 160 million+ in the past few years, so sustained income and keeping the team competitive may be worth it to him. He's a team guy, I'm sure he would be interested. Saving 20% on his annual tax hit would allow for more flexibility while the team is still a contender. 

Where is there anything other than pure rumor that Ohtani was offered $600M+ with no deferrals?  To me $460M/10yrs seems pretty close to what his other offers likely were.  Balanced against the additional endorsement income that comes with being in LA and I feel pretty confident that Ohtani took the most financially lucrative deal he was offered.  There’s a huge factor here in assuming the discount rate the CBT uses to calculate the present value of the payments is aligned with reality, so sure, if you think Ohtani was going to earn 20% investment income on whatever he would have been paid in real time then it looks very stupid.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Snake Diggity

[HtownHorn 14681]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Where is there anything other than pure rumor that Ohtani was offered $600M+ with no deferrals?  To me $460M/10yrs seems pretty close to what his other offers likely were.  Balanced against the additional endorsement income that comes with being in LA and I feel pretty confident that Ohtani took the most financially lucrative deal he was offered.  There’s a huge factor here in assuming the discount rate the CBT uses to calculate the present value of the payments is aligned with reality, so sure, if you think Ohtani was going to earn 20% investment income on whatever he would have been paid in real time then it looks very stupid.

Yep, I think the quote from the unnamed #2 team for Ohtani was, we didn't offer $699M.

[Snake Diggity 4624]

Another thing I just learned is that apparently Ohtani can avoid CA income tax on the deferred money if he lives elsewhere when it is paid out.

[Guadaloopy 10970]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Another thing I just learned is that apparently Ohtani can avoid CA income tax on the deferred money if he lives elsewhere when it is paid out.

Anyone saying that this is the case has never had to deal with the CA Franchise Tax Board.  Those fuckers are going to come hard for Ohtani.

[HtownHorn 14681]

43 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Anyone saying that this is the case has never had to deal with the CA Franchise Tax Board.  Those fuckers are going to come hard for Ohtani.

I mean good luck, he'll be in Japan.

[Guadaloopy 10970]

22 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I mean good luck, he'll be in Japan.

This is CA Franchise Tax Board.  International borders are like the buzzing of flies to them. 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21907]

4 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

I mean good luck, he'll be in Japan.

The dodgers probably won’t be and that’s where the money is coming from.  I’m sure there are massive penalties for failure to withhold.

[Dutchrudder 11139]

9 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Where is there anything other than pure rumor that Ohtani was offered $600M+ with no deferrals?  To me $460M/10yrs seems pretty close to what his other offers likely were.  Balanced against the additional endorsement income that comes with being in LA and I feel pretty confident that Ohtani took the most financially lucrative deal he was offered.  There’s a huge factor here in assuming the discount rate the CBT uses to calculate the present value of the payments is aligned with reality, so sure, if you think Ohtani was going to earn 20% investment income on whatever he would have been paid in real time then it looks very stupid.

The Giants GM was quoted as saying they offered nearly the exact same deal as the Dodgers, so I don't think it's the least bit unlikely that other teams offered him 600-700m over 10. 

"The San Francisco Giants made three offers to Shohei Ohtani, including a final proposal that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi called "very comparable if not identical" to the record $700 million, 10-year contract the Japanese two-way star agreed to with the rival Los Angeles Dodgers."

Are you really arguing that no other team was willing to give him more than 10 for 460m?  Because that's not reality, teams like Steve Cohen and the Mets would have gladly signed him for 10/500 at the very least, probably 600+ too.  His off-field revenue pays for most of his cost, the issue is with the tax hits he brings, but the deferral limits that to a relatively reasonable amount. 

Again, coming back to how this is relevant to the Astros, Jose Altuve is in the last year of his deal. He's 34, is still doing really well with his bat, slightly down on fielding this year, but should keep playing 4-5 more years. Why not take a guy like that and apply the same logic to him if he's willing?  5 for 125 with much of it deferred?  Why not use this advantage while it's available?  Those dollars aren't going to be worth 25m a year in the future, so they might as well use it to maximum effect. 

As for Bregman, they need to find a third baseman of the future if he's not getting extended. There is no one in the farm system ready to step up into that role. If they can use this tool to extend him and help alleviate some of his cap hit, why not?  

[tx 3 putt 76956]

 

[runthebone 7982]

Zaidi is a cheap fucker, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's lying so Giants fans don't run him out of town.  It was good for Lee, though.

[Snake Diggity 4624]

7 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

The Giants GM was quoted as saying they offered nearly the exact same deal as the Dodgers, so I don't think it's the least bit unlikely that other teams offered him 600-700m over 10. 

"The San Francisco Giants made three offers to Shohei Ohtani, including a final proposal that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi called "very comparable if not identical" to the record $700 million, 10-year contract the Japanese two-way star agreed to with the rival Los Angeles Dodgers."

Are you really arguing that no other team was willing to give him more than 10 for 460m?  Because that's not reality, teams like Steve Cohen and the Mets would have gladly signed him for 10/500 at the very least, probably 600+ too.  His off-field revenue pays for most of his cost, the issue is with the tax hits he brings, but the deferral limits that to a relatively reasonable amount. 

Again, coming back to how this is relevant to the Astros, Jose Altuve is in the last year of his deal. He's 34, is still doing really well with his bat, slightly down on fielding this year, but should keep playing 4-5 more years. Why not take a guy like that and apply the same logic to him if he's willing?  5 for 125 with much of it deferred?  Why not use this advantage while it's available?  Those dollars aren't going to be worth 25m a year in the future, so they might as well use it to maximum effect. 

As for Bregman, they need to find a third baseman of the future if he's not getting extended. There is no one in the farm system ready to step up into that role. If they can use this tool to extend him and help alleviate some of his cap hit, why not?  

To believe what you do, you have to believe Shohei Ohtani is either stupid or naive.  The “evidence” you pointed to is a rumor that the Giants offered a “nearly identical” deal to Ohtani, which means major deferrals.  Not very convincing.

The bottom line to this deferral business is that the agents and players aren’t that stupid.  They’re not going to give up tons of money.  Altuve is represented by Scott Boras; I’m sure he’s begging the Astros to defer a shitload of money on some lowball Altuve extension.  The idea of Altuve accepting some deal that significantly reduces his tax hit thru deferrals is not realistic.  And it’s even less realistic for Bregman, who is also represented by Boras.

[Planet Houston 4930]

The only reason Ohtani could propose something like this is because he makes $50mm + in annual revenue from endorsements. Obviously Bregman and Altuve can’t afford to do something so crazy. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Planet Houston

[WBT 20571]

lolwat?  They've both signed 9 digit contracts already.  They would be alright if they wanted to do that.

[formermav43 4606]

2 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

The only reason Ohtani could propose something like this is because he makes $50mm + in annual revenue from endorsements. Obviously Bregman and Altuve can’t afford to do something so crazy. 

You forget about Bregman's salsa money. 

[TejasPedro 1858]

Doesn’t Breggy get free electricity on Thursday nights. That’s gotta be worth  big bucks. I bet he goes around turning all the lights on.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21907]

3 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

The only reason Ohtani could propose something like this is because he makes $50mm + in annual revenue from endorsements. Obviously Bregman and Altuve can’t afford to do something so crazy. 

You can’t expect Altuve to live on the mere $163.5 million that he made under his current contract can you?

Edited December 14, 2023 by NeverMarryAStripper

[Macklemore 2872]

Even though she is a Horn, this new writer covering the Astros fucking sucks. I hope Altuve freezes her out all season.

 

[Guest]

Jose is too fucking classy to play that shit.  He will be the nice guy he always is and always has been.

Ambassador of baseball.  

Fuck the haters.  We can hate her for him, right?

[Mez2 4023]

She's getting torched by astros fans on her Twitter page

[Scraps 13561]

chron is a bunch of clowns

[tx 3 putt 76956]

36 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

She's getting torched by astros fans on her Twitter page

 

[tx 3 putt 76956]

I suggested to her that she not sign a very long lease. 
 

When she covered lsu baseball, she did a good job but ill guess that didn’t pay much if anything 

[kevwun 15788]

I would bet the Chronicle views her old posts as a positive.

[texashorne 1178]

The only media options that fucking matter to me are those of TK, Blum and Julia. The rest can go eat a dong. 

[tx 3 putt 76956]

4 hours ago, Mez2 said:

She's getting torched by astros fans on her Twitter page

she’s going to hate her job from day 1

she should just turn off her twitter comments 

[runthebone 7982]

Don't you mean X, the website formerly known as Twitter?!!

If I run into her when I'm in Cooperstown for Altuve's induction, I'll...probably not even recognize her.

[tx 3 putt 76956]

She’s not going to see day 1, covering the astros 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

Episode 41 of breathing orange  fire is up- and we talk about Ohtani, Vic, rest of the Astros offseason and the Soto trade. 
enjoy:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5S8V4CiJAWr5yhja5GXYGb?si=FZoGCEX2QkiPresMI8fcOw

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[TonyTexas 10512]

4 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

I suggested to her that she not sign a very long lease. 

Kurt Bohls has proven that you can still have a long career by trashing the hometown team that you cover in the local newspaper. 

[tx 3 putt 76956]

28 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Kurt Bohls has proven that you can still have a long career by trashing the hometown team that you cover in the local newspaper. 

trashing the franchise goat is a no go

Has Bohls ever trashed a UT legend ?

Edited December 14, 2023 by tx 3 putt

[hornmpa96 2618]

33 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

trashing the franchise goat is a no go

Has Bohls ever trashed a UT legend ?

You don’t recall his Housman vote in 2005?

[UTPhil2006 3807]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

trashing the franchise goat is a no go

Has Bohls ever trashed a UT legend ?

You serious Clark?

[Guest]

8 hours ago, texashorne said:

The only media options that fucking matter to me are those of TK, Blum and Julia. The rest can go eat a dong. 

I enjoy Charlie and Clanton both.  Not sure if they technically still qualify as 'media' but that's how I view them.

[tx 3 putt 76956]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

You serious Clark?

I know who he is but ive never read one word 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

8 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I know who he is but ive never read one word 

He’s famous for voting Reggie over VY in 05 and then defending it for years. 

[Planet Houston 4930]

I’m listening to an interview between Kalas and Dana - I presume it was today but not sure. He is gushing about Caratini and is shitting on Maldonado by everything he’s saying. Im sure it’s confirmation bias but he seems to imply Maldy was not good at the things he’s raving about Caratini - especially framing and, ya know, being an MLB caliber catcher. 

[tx 3 putt 76956]

 

[HtownHorn 14681]

1 hour ago, Planet Houston said:

I’m listening to an interview between Kalas and Dana - I presume it was today but not sure. He is gushing about Caratini and is shitting on Maldonado by everything he’s saying. Im sure it’s confirmation bias but he seems to imply Maldy was not good at the things he’s raving about Caratini - especially framing and, ya know, being an MLB caliber catcher. 

Maldonado was awful at framing last year, worse than Diaz. That's why everyone in the organization was so vague in what Maldonado brought to the team, because by every measurable standard he was fucking awful.

Using fangraphs.

Maldonado was -15.5 

Diaz was -3.0

Caratini was 6.3

[Rockethorn1978 6077]

So I’m preparing to not make any trades or anything that will get me excited and hope doing nothing is the right decision and we end up winning 100 games and winning the WS.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

48 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

So I’m preparing to not make any trades or anything that will get me excited and hope doing nothing is the right decision and we end up winning 100 games and winning the WS.

Don’t know about WS bc it’s so random, but yeah/ we gonna win 100 with decent (not perfect) health and luck.